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About that S&P "Record" The MainStreamMedia (MS), sometimes locally referred to as LameStream, has been dutifully reporting that the Dow and the S&P both hit records yesterday, but few (if any) are cranking inflation into their reporting. Perhaps it's because thinking isn't allowed, or it hasn't occurred to folks that a dollar in 2007 doesn't buy as much as a dollar did back in 2000 when the S&P's previous record was set.
Yahoo Finance, which has a dandy data repository, shows that in March of 2000, the 24th, to be exact, the S&P hit a high of 1,552.87 intra-day. In the Friday bull on Wall Street, the intra-day high was 1,555.10. So, was that a record yesterday?
"Oh, yeah, that's a three-point new high, for sure," argue some of the bulls I know. But, once again, I trot out the link the to Federal Reserve's inflation calculator online and invite anyone with a half-open mind to put the 2000 S&P high. Unless I did something horribly wrong, the S&P on an intraday basis has to eclipse 1,853.16 to equal the high water mark set in 2000 on a purchasing power basis.
Does this mean the People's Economist is a ranting, frothing, slobbering, nay saying buffoon of a bear? I don't think so. As I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers a while back, I'm playing the long side of things, but my idea of long is a gold commodity option play: I'm thinking inflation is not going away so conveniently. Maybe the next story of two will give you some hints why I'm thinking that way...
Everyone Talks About the Falling Dollar... ...but no one seems to be able to really do much of anything about it, although there are plenty of theories showing up in the headlines as to what's causing it:
Word is starting to come out that Europe's leaders are thinking there might be more inflation in the cards, and it's seeming likely that energy and such will bury the Euro Zone 2% dream.
Inflation continues to make headlines in less financially orients countries, too. Tanzania is looking at 5.9% inflation year on year, but on the other side of the coin (and something my deflationist friend jas will want to hear - Bulgaria has experience 0.4% deflation in June. Canada is bracing for 3% inflation, but that seems manageable.
The problem comes for homeowners as with collapsing housing prices in the US, the old game of 'refi and spend' seems to be coming to an end. While we've seen the homeowner equity decline in real estate, making less available for refinancing, on the other side of the squeeze, rates are rising on 30-year rates.
I will wait until the "cost of living' figures come out next week to go into my rant about the great 'pulling of wool over folk's eyes' that is part & parcel any discussion of discussion focuses on the so-called "core rate" of inflation which conveniently offers that things aren't so bad if you don't use energy or eat. Yet, amazingly, the bulk of spineless economists and talking tele-heads blather on endlessly about core rate of inflation like it's some kind of Holy Grail. A reporter with a nickel's worth of balls (not sure what the other gender equivalent would be) would call it the wool it is.
Sanding Time Monks Subscribers to the web bot project (www.halfpasthuman.com) are no doubt looking forward to this weekend's expected Part 3 posting of the current predictive linguistic run. As I've explained, things don't look especially cheery ahead because of flooding, and such, and a 'global coastal event within five years, which has the potential to shut down life pretty much as we know it. Between bouts of high density computing, Cliff's been sanding away on his wood Sharpie sailboat, being designed for coastal sailing through whatever comes after a global coastal event.
Not that the "floods' meme has run its course yet, either. The current headlines go on about how the UK government is laying out flood relief cash. 280 are dead in flooding in Pakistan, and that recent flooding in China is still going on.
Here at the ranch in East Texas, we've had another third of an inch to half inch go into the rain gauge in the past day. Not bad for a '40% chance of rain'. But, more to the point, the rainfall at Tyler, Texas, a close enough official weather station, shows 46.44 inches year-to-date. Normal is 23.84 and last year during the drought it was only 17.68 inches. Our friends over in the Waco area have only had 39.68 inches.
I'll have to check with George Noory sometime to find out how many inches of snow that would be if we had a foot of rain is freezing weather...that's the kind of thing I'm worried about for this winter. I may even cut some wood this year. We've had a couple of good-sized hardwoods fall recently due to wind/rain and lightning.
Noory and the Coast to Coast crew, by the way, are having a free streaming weekend of some recent shows which runs through Monday. Darned interesting interviews to sample as MP3's.. --- 145-mile per hour typhoon is hitting Asia presently.
One More Worry Al Qaida's commander says a coming new attack will dwarf the recently foiled bomb plot. Question is whether it's talk or a signal to begin an attack. --- Thousands of troops are massing for an attack on Islamic militants in Pakistan, but a government change there seems likely this fall. September/October feels about right.
Black Goes Down You know what amazes me? Conrad Black goes down on fraud, yet the connection to the neocons is all but buried in press reports. Just flat-ass amazing.
Cold War's Return Russia pulled out of a major arms control treaty. If you're worried, you're thinking.
Peoplenomics: A Reality from Vacations A few summers back, Peoplenomics touched on the problem of vacations: Where to go, why to go, and the increasing pressure on people not to take a vacation for lots of reasons. This week, a discussion of symbology, artificial definitions of what constitutes human progress, and some discussion how all that contributes to fewer and fewer people taking real vacations. To put it more bluntly: If we're such an advanced society, why are we all required to work all the time to make ends meet? This week we consider vacations as an adjunct to "George Theory #37: Western Civilization Peaked in 1958". It's a pretty strong case...
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"No Incumbents in 2008" Bumper Sticker To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent there - having never held that job before, got it?
Tell Someone? I'd really appreciate it if you would tell all your friends that you read UrbanSurvival or Independence Journal, or Peoplenomics. That way, more people will become aware of what's going on in the economy, and with more smarts, maybe we can wake up America. Click here to warn them.
Be a "Third Worlder" -- Right Now! Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...You may have more time to read this fall if the economy falls apart as I expect...
Friday July 13, 2007 Glorious Rally, Bounce, or Dangerous Crack-up Boom? The lead in to triskaidekaphobia had nothing on the market yesterday with the Dow pounding out a wonderful 283 point gain. Emails from euphoric bulls are again crowding the inbox this morning as the jubilation continues almost non-stop. "Good Times are here! You're missing the boat!" seems to be the common thread.
Well, that may be, but again, I'd like to inject just a touch of reality - the purchasing power parity of the Dow. I've said it before, but at times like this it's worth repeating, that on a purchasing power basis the Dow is not yet back to where it was in 2000. Purchasing Power Parity is a simple enough concept. It's like denominating stocks (or anything else) not in terms of paper (which has suffered severe purchasing power erosion due to inflation), but in terms of loaves of bread, pounds of butter, or other real goods.
The easiest way to figure what the Dow needs to do in order to achieve in order to reach purchasing power parity with 2000 is to take the link to the Federal Reserve inflation calculator (in the left menu) and put in 11,723 for a starting value in the year 2000 and put in 2007 for an end date. By the Fed's calculator of inflation, that means the Dow would have to hit 13,989.99 in order to buy as many loaves of bread today as a "Dow's worth of money" would buy in 2000.
But wait! Does this pass the 'reasonableness test'? If you put in 2006 for a start and 2007 for an end date, you'll see the Fed calculator presents you with 1.93 of change -- in other words, the Fed calculator uses a 1.9% inflation rate for that year.
The problem is, of course, that the Federal Reserve inflation number is highly suspect. John Williams' highly respected "Shadow Government Statistics" has a dandy little chart here that shows annual consumer inflation has been running an average over 9% since 2000, while the government figures for the period average about 3 1/2 percent. You'll also notice that the inflation rate has been supported by a massive increase in M-3, the broadest measure of the money supply at recent annual rates in excess of 12% annualized.
This brings to the fore two hugely important investor questions you need to ask yourself. The first is this: If the actual inflation reported by the government guides us to look at a current Dow of 13,989.99 would be necessary to just equal the 2000 level, then what would an actual consumer inflation at two-and-a-half times that level imply?
It's always dangerous for me to set about working with a calculator too early in the day, so I'll keep in incredibly simple: 13,989.99 minus 11,723 means the Dow has to rise 2,267 points over the period under the government figures. But a rise of 2 1/2 times that would mean a rise of (2,267*2.5) or 5,667.50 points.
That would put the consumer inflation adjusted Dow at 17,390.50 to equal consumer purchasing power of 2000!
Now please, don't go calling me a bear, and don't waste your time writing in about dividends (as they had those in 2000, too). The point I am making is that a dollar doesn't buy a dollars worth of anything any more. As if to underscore that very point, I'd offer that the Dollar has just hit new lows against the Euro and a market basket of other world currencies.
This may seem like a terribly 'bearish' perspective, but again, I'd offer that looking at investments on a constant-dollar basis is neither bullish nor bearish - it simply reflects one additional level of analysis in an amazingly complex financial world. Would you rather have what $1.00 would have bought in 1913 before the bankers took over money, or what $1.00 buys today? The purchasing power of a dollar in 1913 would cost $20.76 today by the Federal Reserve calculator which underscores the point. A dollar is worth 4.816955 cents compared to 1913.
Not that I'm alone is this view. My friend Michael Nystrom over at BullnotBull has a dandy article on Bubble Morphology, which as I pointed out yesterday, has market's valuing the Dow like an apartment building in a period of high inflation, rather than a cash-flow producing device.
I expect few people to agree with this outlook, so you can take your pick of three ways of looking at it:
Reader Question A good question from a reader today:
Dear Reader: This underscores two harsh realities: The first is that brains are not evenly distributed throughout the Universe. If they were, the cognoscenti would have noted that yes, the price of oil is over $76 and likely to remain north of $70 until we get a 'good' depression.
However, Mexico is setting up to implode and the decline of their massive Cantarell oil field, along with guerilla attacks on energy supplies, will eventually force all but a small portion of the population to move elsewhere.
Meanwhile, a few people in Canada are coming to the realization that they're about to be annexed (which shows the future value of trees and tar sands) into the USA-Mexico under the SPP / ,deep integration agenda of the NAFTA/Corporate elite which are trying to 'cost reduce' the middle class out of existence.
Of course that's going to happen anyway. The American consumer is already tapped out - and people who are surprised by the "surprise decline" in retail sales released this morning, just aren't paying attention to their own checking accounts or prices at the store.
So as the leaders of Mexico, the US, and Canada meet next up north (guarded by the US Army in Canada, which will be a treat to see) there will be little or no LameStreamMedia coverage for reasons having to do with corporate agendas, as much as anything I expect.
But, if SPP and oil don't get us, there are still $50 billion of adjustable rate mortgages resetting to largely unaffordable levels come October - say bye bye Alt-A -which will force more homeowners into foreclosure. And, on top of that, don't forget that the Alternative Minimum Tax creep will arrive to bite this year. Thank the Republicorps for that one, too.
There, aren't
you glad you asked? Thursday July 13, 2007 Balance of Trade as Expected As expected - the balance of trade came in at negative $60 billion for May:
Two points: One is that this is serious 'rearview economics' -- in that the report period is May, not June, and secondly, remember that things we are seeing today (like the climbing price of oil) won't show up in the BOT report until the July numbers come out in mid-September. Better hope Boeing roll's out those DreamLiners.
Non-event? Probably, but: Gold 's up over $5 on the report, and oil prices, and dollar weakness which we'll get to in a moment...
That Was Quick A number of people wrote in about the scenario painted yesterday about a possible timeline which could lead to action in the Middle East by the West against Iran. One reader sends along this -- which is right in line with the process I've speculated may be developing. As I wrote yesterday:
Still, I'm not buying bushel baskets of puts on anything that uses oil, unless I see the resignation of key top military brass. On the other hand, if I see someone of Admiral Fallon's stature suddenly depart, then I'd get out the executive decision maker (coin to flip) and start thinking about shorts on sectors which could get hurt with a doubling of oil prices, and long on sectors which benefit from war - if that's not an oxymoron -- especially given that the genie comes out of the bottle...
Another Behavior Pattern? Then there's a reader who says he's seen another pattern:
If you're trying to figure out the patterns of political life, you'd want to know that Laura Bush has been in Africa this week talking about the AIDS epidemic.
Dollar Disease One of the headlines this morning is that "Oil Prices Climb on Mixed US Fuel Data", but you know what? Maybe they are climbing because the dollar has fallen to a record low against the Euro and it just looks like the price of oil is going up when in truth it's that the purchasing power of the buck is tanking.
The result of the dollar decline will be paradoxical and counterintuitive for many. The reason is simple: There was a time when the stock markets were valued based on their ability to produce earnings and dividends at an agreeable purchasing power level. Now what I see is a market, which in the face of massive inflation (dollar depreciation) is valued more like an apartment building because the underlying value is nothing other than the huge American consumer market - which values like an apartment as long as the consumers are intact!
As long as the Federal Reserve can promote 'economic stability' (rather than preserve the purchasing power of the dollar, a policy abandoned long ago) and hold the debt-saturated consumer market together in some cohesive way, our paper will be valued in high inflation as a leverable asset. Word that US home foreclosures were down a tad in June is no doubt to be taken as 'good news' because it means that the US consumer is still alive. No doubt the policymakers are hoping that the home price deflation will stop, turn upward, and thus allow Americans one more shot at refinancing in order to keep consumption high.
This kind of thinking (this is thinking?) is likely why the futures seem to be pointing toward a mixed opening, and although I personally think the balance of trade will come in higher than expected in future months due to the dollar, but again, those impacts shouldn't show up on the BOT report for a couple of months, and by then we'll be in a different head space. War maybe?
But, when you've watching this whole scenario play out, recall the gold tends to be the 'truth detector' in all this and our gold contract play spelled out for subscribers to my Peoplenomics newsletter has been moving. As an information point only, this particular commodity option trade cost $450 per contract to get in (not counting commissions and fees) and the theoretical value this morning is $581, or about 29%, but that's only four days into the trade. Such are commodity trades, but it can go just as fast the other way and the only time I count profits are when you take them off the table. It's only paper for now...
Terror in the Wings I noted previously how the 9/11 attack came at a time when a reasonable case could be made that the US was entering into a potential 1929 Replay following the peak of the markets in 2000 and the subsequent decline in markets into fall 2001. Almost too convenient, but it did work out that the Twin Towers got America's attention off the Dot Bomb collapse and it gave a fine pretext for the current occupation of Iraq, if it weren't for those persistent and bothersome (to the PTB) questions about the 9/11 events and the bait & switch war.
I see events lining up in a similar way now: The dollar declining, fear that foreclosure/CDO paper could collapse and bring down the empire could be neatly sidestepped with a sufficiently large terrorist attack. Even better, the demonizing of Iran is going on full tilt, so we have an action path to follow that's been conveniently prepared in advance.
So, when Department of Homeland Security Boss Michael Chertoff syas he's 'worried in the gut' about the threat for this summer, I read the headlines with a nearly overwhelming sense of deja vu.
Fanning those flames, we read that "White House, FBI Agents race to disrupt 'Summer of '07' threat". And as if that's not enough, we read a conveniently leaked classified report that says Al Qaida has rebuilt their strength to pre 9/11 levels. Has the administration been holding back on Iran till we get a T event to use as an excuse? And, if it has been a waiting game, will the T's wait till we take out Iran and then retaliate saying "we started it with first use" of mushrooms?
The sequencing of events I outlined earlier this week is at least interesting from an investor's contingency planning perspective, however, I don't think I will be loading up on puts in any industry that I think could be damaged by a terror attack of the kind Chertoff fears. Why? If I were guessing, a general call option on a commodity might be less likely to be subjected to force majeure claims after the fact; compared with an industry-specific bushel basket of puts with short expiration dates -- at least that would enter my thinking.
We still don't have the list of who was buying gobs of airline puts prior to 9/11 - and those were not force majeured as far as I know. But who was it? That's above our paygrade apparently, as just regular citizens.
Consumers Tapped Out Stores post lackluster sales according to reports out today.
Wednesday July 11, 2007 A friend of mine, who is very astute in spite of his legal training, offered me an interesting observation yesterday: "George, have you ever noticed that George Bush goes to Ohio 2-4 weeks before a major decision?" No, I hadn't. But, my friend assured me that if you look back, you'll see that before something really major comes, Bush goes to Columbus.
That got me to thinking: Why does GWB go to Ohio? We kicked it around for a while and cobbled up two competing theories. One theory says Columbus is a nice place and it would be an ideal lower key setting to meet with people who might otherwise get some media attention, or names that would draw attention at the White House.
This first theory, though, is just that -- theory. The second reason to visit Ohio is a little more obvious. Bush's grandfather Prescott Bush was born and raised, at least till he went off to Yale, in the Columbus area. And, his (GWB's great-great grandfather) father, Samuel P. Bush, spent his life in the Columbus area. Could it be that before making big decisions, Bush tries to get some quiet time, and get back in touch with the family roots in Ohio when something major is to be decided? We ought to know soon enough. If nothing major happens within a month, in terms of White House actions/direction/policy change, this will be one of those theories to be thrown on the scrap heap of political writing.
A More Complete Theory A presidential trip to Ohio this week, if a big decision was near on something would bring up the question "What's the Big Decision if there is one?" It seems to me that the evolving low intensity Manufacturer's Resource Wars covered in yesterday's piece on oil, doesn't have too much longer to run. Thus, if the US is going to make a major move in the Middle East, it would have to come early enough so that the republicorps could claim some credit for success before the 2008 elections.
So the two leading choices are 1) Bush may be considering a drawdown from Iraq or 2) - and the most likely as I see it - the attack on Iran's nuclear capabilities in the near future.
Although it's nothing more than a SWAG [simple wild-assed guess] at this point, I'd bet on the Iran attack option because recent events could be construed to support the theory.
For example, the visit by Russia's Vlad Putin to the Bush family home in Kennebunkport might have been an opportunity for Bush to tell Putin: "I'm thinking about going in to Iran to take out their nukes" and the carrot for Putin would be tacit US approval to let the price of oil (Russian oil and gas is exported) to rise dramatically in the wake of such an event. So Putin could 'sit things out' and wait for the world situation to calm down after such an event.
Here's a timeline - and again this is entirely speculative and based on no knowledge - only piecing bits of this and that together:
The aftermath of such a sequencing of events (and they don't look that way in modelspace, BTW) would be of sufficient magnitude, that the period of massively building global tensions foreseen linguistically for the next 75-days or so from that point, might be something like an instant oil embargo and global call for the US to be punished for first use.
I've outlined how the US could be impacted by an EMP event in a recent scenario for Peoplenomics subscribers, and I could see how an international reaction to US first-use - could result in a retaliatory EMP event that might be US-directed, but conducted over international waters and or in international space.
Mid you, this is all incredibly speculative. For now, Bush is asking for patience with the War. But with the US dollar again in decline today, and with OPEC members like Qatar saying that the high price of oil is out of their control, the time for the US to secure its energy future might be limited, and facing a need to secure resources in the Middle East, such a dramatic series of moves would likely not surprise the watchful observer.
With a blow-up of the global financial system possibly in the cards, especially with the Dollar-Yen strain, the old Janis Joplin lyrics, "When you ain't got nothin', you ain't got nothin' to lose..." come flooding back. Iran, meanwhile, is telling the Chinese media that they will not stop working on enrichment.
The market sell-off yesterday may be the start of a long summer grind-down. Futures point to a lower open today.
Energy Attack Some gas pipelines in Mexico have been attacked.
Bulls and Bears A couple of readers have asked me "Why are you such a bear?" Well, I don't consider myself one. Whenever I talk to someone who is a self-described 'bull' I like to ask them hard questions about where they imagine future growth will come from now that we're at something close to consumer saturation economics. On the other hand, when I meet up with dyed-in-the-wool bears, I ask questions the other way.
Thus, I try at all times to consider both sides of things. It's then (without becoming invested in projected outcomes) that I can build scenarios and make better investment choices. It's my observation that a trader with either a bullish or bearish bent doesn't do as well as an open-minded trader willing top play the long or short side, depending on how events are flowing for the country, the sector, and the company considered.
Mosque Battle The Battle for the Red Mosque in Pakistan continues. Could this be an event leading to an uprising against the Musharraf government this fall?\
Religious Marketing Speaking of religion, a papal document says that, as one headline sums it up, "Catholicism is the only true church, Vatican declares".
That Flushed Feeling I don't know why, but the arrival of a motion-sensing toilet paper dispenser somehow epitomizes society's need to automate things. Apparently most people us more than 5-sheets, although I'll leave that project for your personal research... --- Also on the environmental front, sheep are being trained to weed vineyards. I wonder if vineyard owners have thought about planting mint for them...
Chemtrails and Sunshine A note from our Houston Bureau has us doing more thinking about what's ahead for the country:
Banker Resumes Need a banker gig? Try the International Monetary Fund - they've got an opening.
Email of the Day This is a dandy - source unknown, but sent in by a reader:
Tuesday July 10, 2007 I've mentioned to you on many occasions that the use of the term "shortage" throughout internet-reported media seems to have been on the rise since March of 2006 which I started tracking the data from http://news./google.com. You can put in the word "shortage" as a search of indexed news sources and see the latest yourself.
While there are all sorts of possible drivers for this ascent, including any changes in caching techniques by the engine, or maybe the outbreak of bloggers and RSS feeds, it seems to me that the use of the term would probably not have doubled based on these factors alone. From a low in early 2006 of 11,500, the number of returns today is (at the time of this writing) at 25,240; obviously a more than doubling of occurences.
I bring this to your attention to support the simple notion that despite the high falutin' explanations to the contrary, there really are larger-scale changes underway in the economy than the LameStreamMedia (.e.g popular Mainstream press) are willing to let onto because in the main, they'll swallow almost anything written up as a "press release" and handed them by a government or corporate flak...I'm sorry, 'public relations or press relations specialist". Excuse the slip.
A more critical view of the world's condition suggests that the lack of due diligence on the part of LameStream has really done a tremendous disservice to America, and as long as we're at it, the whole world as well. Why? Well, most folks are not seeing what's coming down the pike in the way of further shortages, especially in that Mother of All Shortages, the arrival of Peak Oil.
While it's true that I've referred you on many occasion to the exceptional sites on the topic, such as www.theoildrum.com, and there to the writing of US experts like Jeffrey J. Brown, I expect the mainstream or Main Street America is not all that worried. Oh, sure, there is some price inflation at the grocery store, but the connection between that and light sweet Brent's arrival at $75 seems to be an unfathomable connection to suggest, let alone grasp. Recent comments by the boss at Nestles that food price inflation is here for the long haul was virtually buried in the US. You do see the connection, I hope?
Despite the ground-breaking book by energy high finance guru Matthew Simmons, Twilight in the Desert, which Brown calls "As important as Churchill's warnings about World War II", even the most alert of Americans hold to the notion that there's lots of oil behind those chain link fenced sections of desert in Saudi, and that we'll always get oil from the Middle East, the truth is that Peak Oil is not the absolute end of oil. What it is instead is when new production starts to permanently under perform increasing demand. And that's when life changes.
As Jim Kunstler has pointed out in his most recent book, "The Long Emergency" the whole fabric of America is based on urban sprawl and suburban areas which will become mostly unsustainable as oil prices escalate. If you have MP3 capability, you might want to click here to listen to what Jim had to say recently to the Commonwealth Club of California. Kunstler is working on a new book - a novel to be set in declining America post Peak Oil. As he told the Commonwealth Club, "It will alter the fundamental terms of Western economies." Welcome to my mat; so it will.
"Sleepwalking into the future" is how Kunstler puts it, but I'd suppose that's the polite version used in front of large audiences. Privately, I expect a little more impassioned terminology would emerge.
"Yeah, yeah, George, you've been through all this before, so what's the point today...I've only got so much time for even the amusing renegade economist's daily rants..."
It all comes down to the remarkable report in the prestigious Financial Times yesterday that the "World will face oil crunch in five years".
If you want to live by the myth that the Middle East is alive and well, ready to bail us out, don't bother reading about the Hubbert Linearization method which was covered in the UrbanSurvival weekly report for the week ending February 17th of this year, where a note from Jeffrey Brown said in part...
And it's not.
The EIA report referenced in the Financial Times article moves the clock for the Bush administration to resolve what is the horrific war/civil war mess in Iraq, too. While it might have been argued that wars to gain energy resource might make some "sense" from the standpoint of 'defending the paradigm/defending the lifestyle" perspective early on, the EIA report says (if you grasp the impacts of the report) that humans won't have energy to waste on things like wars very shortly if a planetary die-off is to be avoided. If you haven't visited Jay Hanson's site, www.dieoff.org, you have a lot of awareness reading to catch up on.
Last week's issue of Peoplenomics, the subscription side of this operation, offered some thoughts on vacations and why more than half of Americans won't be able to take one this year. Could it be that Western Civilization really peaked in 1958 or so? On the Dieoff site, there is some discussion about the difference between Gross Domestic Product and what's called the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) - two vastly different ways of measuring the world. That work places the peak GPI of Western Civilization somewhere between 1965 and 1975, although I'll stick to my guns on the 1958 peak idea, because I lost too many friends in the Vietnam Ware for that to be considered peak anything, especially Progress. --- While the reports are out today that the Iraq Government has missed all the targets set up by the US for "progress" toward ending the war, we'll just sit here with a complete lack of surprise. The notion about sweetheart deals for major US oil companies and a massive embassy for the Middle East Region is all part & parcel of the neocon failure to recognize that their view of the world doesn't square with reality, especially when it comes to people defending their homes, families, and way of life.
Meanwhile, the web site of the DC Madam, who has posted all of her client records online ( http://www.deborahjeanepalfrey.com/ ) has been flooded by media and the curious trying to find out who was screwing who while the public was getting screwed in the District of corruption. We're already reading about one senator reported sorry for his 'serious sin'. --- If I were to generalize the current world situation as "Obvious crisis coming, led by fools" it might sound a bit harsh. Cynical, even doomsayer-ish if there is such a term. Perhaps. But would that be an inaccurate way to describe the current world condition here at the dawn's early light?
Meantime, a few lawmakers are starting to eye energy market speculation, reports John Crudele in today's NY Post. No point in bidding up energy prices any faster than will happen naturally, given the EIA outlook, eh? Forced lifestyle change is coming soon enough. Oh, and don't forget what happens to suburban housing when oil won't sustain the game. You understanding why CDO's can't be allowed to publicly trade and have to be (wink win, nod nod) backroom agreements?
Terra Intrudes The three big quakes aren't here yet, but the flooding meme continues, and oh yes, Buenos Aires had snow yesterday for the first time in 89 years.
So, how many undersea volcanoes do you think there are? How about over 200,000 says a New Scientist report.
Mark your calendar: Steve Quayle Show www.stevequayle.com on Wednesday night of this week: Earthquake researcher Stan Deyo wheels out some new science involving gravity, physics, and how the world operates. Bet me he doesn't mention the plasma expansion model somewhere in his discussion?
The what? You need to do a little reading on the subject of the plasma core of earth, and here's why: You know about Einstein's e=MC-squared, right? Says a huge amount of energy is released when atoms are split. But wait! What if the flip side is true - and that the earth, soaking up all kinds of energy from our sun (and things like light and what have you from the whole galaxy) works as sort of the reciprocal of Einstein. Think of earth as "condensing matter out of energy." It would make perfect sense, hangs together, and may be descriptive of what goes on inside the earth under great pressure and high temperatures.
So, I'll be listening to Steve's show Wednesday night for sure, because work in this area is incredibly important. As the predictive linguistics fellows give us the heads-up, the three big quakes aren't here - yet. Earth expansion due to arriving energy seems like something worth thinking about, especially given the increase in gamma-ray-bursts lately.
Tuesday Bummer Market Down open for the market today? Sears lowered guidance, bummer #1. Bummer #2, Home Depot guidance is down. Maybe if American's weren't taking 1% a month out of life savings (including home equity) to make ends meet for the past six months, the consumer would be able to lead us away from recession. But, that's not going to happen now, is it?
Monday July 9, 2007 FMF OK, you're thinking, what's a "FMF"? Some kind of new report about the economy? A new government alphabet agency? Nope. It means 'Foul Mouthed Flop' and it's being bandied about in the press today to describe the Live Aid for Earth concert this weekend.
Not that the idea of a concert for the earth is a bad thing. But, when so many of the participants show up using big carbon footprint private jets, and the hype goes on, you have to sit back and ask what would a real concert for the earth be like? Maybe it would have been acoustic - no electric instruments? Delivered via the internet to avoid travel and maximize web capabilities?
While it sounds good, a lot of people are suspicious these days of anything that gets too commercial - and the hype around this was a little...much. I expect that in terms of actual helping the earth, efforts like the July 17th global meditation planned by Fire the Grid (of earth energy) will have as great or a greater impact. And a lot smaller carbon footprint.
The War Drags On 26 people were killed on Sunday in Iraq, and that's on top of 130 who died in a truck bombing on Saturday in a Shiite town. Britain's Times Online claims that Colin Powell tried to talk George Bush out of going to war, saying it would not work - and so far, he's been right.
As more republicorps are distancing themselves from the Bush White House bait-and-switch war started after 9/11, the Bush cabal seems to at least be considering how to pull off a pull back as support crumbles. Let me see, how about a "Mission accomplished landing on an aircraft carrier to announce it? --- In Iraq, the government is not likely to meet the goals set on it by the Bush administration, which comes as absolutely no surprise. With so much oil at stake, it has been a a valiant effort to help secure America's energy future for major old-style corporations, living the illusion that infinite growth is possible in a resource limited environment. So in stark relief, a realist could say gunpoint diplomacy and Live concerts aren't going to get corporations out of their box - we need to be thinking in terms of sustainable corporate operations and abandon the growth or death model of business. More on alternative business models next week for Peoplenomics subscribers. --- And a land deal to report in Texas related to the War. Cindy Sheehan has sold her land near the Bush ranch to anti-war activist and radio host Bree Walker. Sheehan, meantime is setting her sights on Nancy Pelosi, who you may recall had a big 100-day agenda, which seems to have gone missing in the Beltway. --- And in our Duh Department, we have to note that Iraqi leaders are busily warning that the country will fall into civil war if the US pulls out. Excuse me? What is this?
War and Drugs As I've suggested before, it seems nonsensical that a country which tried to kill its own recreational pot smokers with Paraquat sprayed on marijuana couldn't wipe out the opium crop in Afghanistan. So, I note this morning that Afghanistan's anti-drug boss is resigning. Say, that's a big move, huh? Not! You and I are probably right in guessing that there is so much narco-money to be made on heroin that we've hobbled any war effort with backdoor grease.
Terror Is Forever At least 15-years worth is ahead says a UK official. Hey, if we insist on the current business paradigm, I bet we could stretch that out to forever. Here, hand me some mortgage and credit card debt to bundle up and shovel off on people, would you?
As long as we're on topic, terror fears are rising in Indonesia. --- Speaking of currency affairs, the Yen fell to a record against the Euro overnight. Japanese are buying lots of things - overseas so they will be denominated in something besides Yen.
As the World Burns The American West is suffering from massive wildfires this year - and they're not over yet. But as the West burns, we've had lots more rain this weekend here in East Texas. So, this is what 'banding of the weather' the web bots predicted about a year back feels like when it shows up. Well, more rains ahead, it seems, so we're stocking up on long term storable good while its economic. --- I can hardly wait for the Cost of Living Report - but in the meantime as a lead-in, we get the Balance of Trade Report on Thursday of this week along with Retail Sales on Friday along with Business Inventories. Wholesale inventories tomorrow.
We've Been Wondering The new Seven Wonders of the World has been announced - after more than 100-million votes were cast. Click here for the list. I'm a little miffed that the Pyramids weren't on the list, but that's just me, I guess.
Dreamliner? Think Moneyliner Boeing's newest was rolled out with 677 orders so far. Ching-ching (or however you spell a cash register sound).
WSJ Deal Shopping No deal for Murdoch yet on the Wall Street Journal bid.
Watch Oil/Gas Prices The International Energy Agency says there's a crunch coming in oil and gas supplies. Problem is: If we have great growth, oil/gas can't keep up, if we get a Depression, at least there will be energy...
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George Ure, The People's Economist
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