"Higher prices of gasoline are a subject of repugnance not only for the customers, but the convenience store retailers are also finding it as a challenge. Since, the increased prices are badly affecting their profit margins. The main reason behind the continuous decline in profit margins is that costs, especially credit-card fees, seem to continue to escalate relentlessly.

A study that was completed by “National Association of Convenience Stores”, in February 2007, for the stores selling gasoline and accepting plastic reveals that credit-card fees had cost an average of US$ 45,785 in the year 2005. The figure actually eclipsed the average per store pre taxing revenues of US$ 42,196 in the same year. Credit/debit fees totaled about US$ 5.4 Billion on an industry wide basis.

Most people prefer to make payment by plastic as the prices of gasoline increase. This may be either because they don’t carry cash (or probably they don’t want to spend it) or because they attempt to avoid the immediate pain of paying higher prices. As credit card billing system gives them some time to pay up the money.

Use of plastic money at pumps increased with the constant rise in average annual prices of gas, which grew from US$ 1.85 in 2004 to US$ 2.27 in 2005. The enormous increase in the prices of gasoline during the year 2005 has accelerated this trend. NACS consumer statistics show that about 65% consumers today prefer to pay their gasoline prices via credit cards."

Could it be half of potential C store potential profits are going to banksters?  The collision of interests here is plain to see:  The public likes the convenience of a credit card - sometimes faster than dirty old cash. But, on the merchant side, it can gobble up the profits.  So we look for a moving front for this battle as consumer and merchant forces try to achieve some balance of interests.  In the meantime, we'll stick with cash for transactions wherever possible.  Sure cash is a nuisance, but when the end of the month comes, there's no squaring up with the devil, and we find our resistance to useless impulse purchases is greatly improved.

We read that 400 people have been arrested in a Mexican drug ring operation. With a bust worth $45 million, this hailed as a big deal, but we expect it's about enough dope for a single weekend of California partying.  Still, it's a good start. Why should we support crime families when a few plants at home would solve most problems?  But let's not go there, it's a too simple answer and think of all the lawyers, judges, jailers, counselors who could lose their jobs if people could grow any plant God put on earth in their own yards.  Not to mention how the "Drug War" gives criminal gangs a way to control their opponents through "selective ratting.". 

This is really a cool story.  The Palm Springs Desert Sun reports "Unknown Dodgers pitcher could be baseball's first billionaire player."  But, it's not because of his throwing arm.  It's because he bought a piece of property in western Massachusetts from a relative that turns out to be worth a top line $2-billion in quarry rock. A fine return on a $50K investment, any day.

We notice that a "Timor rebel vows to fight to the end" as Australian troops have Alfredo Reinado surrounded.  Why should you care?  Well, look shocked when I tell you this all has more to do with oil and gas development in the region than simply local politics.  To echo the question ("Would we be there is all they had was bananas?") about Iraq, I'll say in my best Oztralian accent picked up by eating and drinking Foster's at the local Outback,  "East Timor: Australian for oil."

I like watching the developments in Zimbabwe lately. Not just because of their several thousand percept episode of hyperinflation, although that is catchy by itself.  But, because of other things.  For example, president Robert Mugabe a while back told Western banksters to stuff it with their loans to his country - thus making himself the man banksters love to hate.  And now we read that Mugabe's government has signed a deal to export power to Namibia starting next year. That will generate a little national income.

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So, why didn't the powers that be just send in troops to Zimbabwe like happens most everywhere else on the planet when a bankster plan goes awry?  Well, unlike East Timor, there's no big oil or gas deposits to profiteer from, ergo, with only a little coal (says the CIA World Factbook) it's hardly worth the campaign contributions it would cost to ramp up regime change there, in the name of "freedom" mind you.  In other words, Mugabe and Zimbabwe definitively answer the question "Would we be there if all they had was bananas?"

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It's all clear to me now: By the way, speaking of the CIA World Factbook online, where I checked to see how much oil Zimbabwe had, I noticed that the Factbook's alphabetized country drop down menu (at least for today) doesn't end with Zimbabwe at the bottom, which seems like it oughta be the last country on the list.  Nope.  It's followed by Taiwan and then the European Union.  I woulda thought the #2 alphabet agency would be able to alphabetize a list.  My 'managing programmers conclusion' is that this is an example of  why NSA has the point with Echelon, don't you suppose?

As long as I've started tilling this particular field, I guess I could mention that the 2006 Darwin Awards are out.  If you haven't scanned them, and you need to reminding that we're not as smart as we might think as a species, click here. And the 2006 Idiot Awards are making the email rounds today and showing up in places like Chocolate and Raspberries.

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I'm trying to come up with a nice quote to put up on the wall of my nearly refurbished office.  I've been tinkering with several:

• Making money is not a sin - unless you're caught by the Treasury Department.

• If all is not lost, where is it?

If you have a suitable guiding principle, which would fit UrbanSurvival, please send it along - I will put a page of  Urban Wisdom up when we're done.  Click here to submit your entry or please title your entry "Wisdom entry" so my email router puts it into the right folder.  One winner will get a "Pirates of the Constitution" poster (courtesy of www.epingo.com ).  No voting though - my call on this one.  besides, we all know voting is a what?  (I'll just motion to the nothingcrats and nothingcans in CONgress...)

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By the way:  If you wonder how I can deal with so much "stuff" that crosses my desk every day (I mean besides reading fast and typing fast, and timing phone calls), can I advise you to start using the power of your email program's built-in message router?  Even Outlook Express has some basic rules for routing emails. 

So, depending on who you are, when you send me an email it lands in a particular folder that I then prioritize on a daily basis and handle in sequence.  Folders for me include Cliff & Igor of the web bot project, emails forwarded to me from my wife (her office is in the other building at the ranch).  Then I've got 23 folders under my main consulting client, where much of my day goes.  Then I've got folders for emails from Panama Bates (presently in Panama), for receipts, software upgrades, special deals on tools from Northern Tool and Harbor Freight, Tiger Direct, etc...well, you got the picture. 

Then, to top it all off, I've got a routing map borrowed from "Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress Free Productivity".  All tied in to my Outlook calendar.  Just something to think about, if you're not running a task list/ rules-driven/ calendar and clock driven life already.  It's how I stumble through writing, research, consulting, running a farm, being married, and doing an office rehab simultaneously.  Use email rules!  Capisce?

Let's see, where were we...oh yeah....

Speaking of oil wars, we notice that the "Chinese Foreign Minister calls for Iran's positive response on nuclear issue."  The pragmatic Chinese obviously know that if the US (or our proxy Israel) go nuking Iran's nuclear projects that it could end very badly not just for the Iranians, but for the US, Russia, and China, which we reckon could all be drawn in to a much expanded conflict.

A reader at Georgia Institute of Technology has sent in this:

Hello George:

I have been keeping track of local gas prices in my area and comparing them to oil and wholesale gas prices. I have included the chart below. It really looks like gas prices are starting a major upturn. It looks like the trend is definitely not our friend! Keep up the good work!

Our GT reader didn't specify, but those trend lines look suspiciously like 4th or 5th order polynomial trend lines - which I've always liked and yeah, sort of looks like prices are starting to factor in either one hell of a lot of summer driving, or an attack on Iran with restricted exports of oil to the US to follow, doesn't it?

Our Canadian Correspondent Tim B, who has been working on the notion of a 72-73 year economic cycle (which he calls the basic PHI cycle) offers some food for cyclical thinkers:

COOL! It's all coming back to me now. Better hope that this is NOT a 7168-Year Cycle LOW coming--NOTHING/NO ONE WILL STOP THAT.

P.S. Is this why ARMSTRONG is STILL locked up, 7 years after his arrest? Does he know this, and they don't want him to tell??? ...................................................................................................

Now fast forward again to the founding of the USA. The 72-Year cycle seems to have a particular "liking" for the American Republic since its founding, as it has NOT ONCE escaped its wrath. Counting backward in 72-year increments from July/1932, the accuracy is again astounding! There are 3 in succession! The first seemed to be over by late 1785, after the USA defaulted on the Continental currency, and the next saw a panic low in October 1857, which preceded what even then turned into a Great Depression. So again, there was almost exactly 72 years between those two, an error of less than 1% from exactitude.

The most recent date (1932), counting from the death of Alexander, is 31 X 72.71 years = 2254 years. Again, there is no AD 0 .

Adding that long-term average of 72.71years to July8/1932 brings us up to mid-March/2005!

However, counting only from the ONE historical collapse whose CONDITIONS and known CAUSES parallel that of now,( 1345), to 1932 results in an average recent 72-Year cycle length of 73.38 years.

Adding that number to July 8/1932 results in a date of around November 20/2005. This can be considered to be close enough to be the Presidential Cycle (4-Year) low that many are expecting in 2006! What will the mid-term elections in 2006 that the politicos are preening for now look like in that case?

However, we have the historical precedent of the 72-Year Cycle stretching to a value of about 74.5 years, or +4%, from the October 1857 low to the Jul 1932 low. This would imply a major 72 and 144-Year low by the spring of 2007 , just after the mid-term elections in the USA. This would make the 144-Year Cycle actually about 149 years long, which again is only an error of about +3%. Again, this would satisfy the 4-Year Presidential Cycle low due sometime near 2006. ======================================================== SPRING 2007, EH? Remember this? Also seems to agree with this Bronson SuperCycle chart I saved. Just hope that it's not a CENTURY SUPER-PHI low this time around..remember the geometric progression discovered: 1 X (PHI exp 2) days= 2.618 days; where 1 = 10 exp 0--This predicted small cycle was FOUND active in the markets just in late 2006 in the attached article . 100 X (PHI exp 2) days = 261.8 days = Armstrong's 8.6 Month Cycle 10000 X (PHI exp 2) days = 26,180 days = 71.68 years =72-Year Cycle 1000000 x (PHI exp 2) days = 2,618,000 = 7168 Year-Cycle = CENTURY SUPER PHI CYCLE = WORSE THAN ARMAGEDDON

It's against this kind of background that I read stories like this one:  "Huron River Area Credit Union is Placed into Conservatorship" and wonder what lies ahead.

February 28, 2007

200 point Bounce Next?

There's two thing's we know about the road to Hell.  It's paved with good intensions and it's bouncy.  Today, we get to see some of the bouncy part first-hand as the futures are poised to bounce back from yesterday's initial "top-may-be-in" 400+ point Dow decline, and a hundred points up on the Dow would be a minimal expectation. Yesterday's action was, for web bot subscribers and for readers of this site, something of an expected outcome, given the pressures which have continued to build in the global economy.

Although my personal expectation is for the markets to spiral downward, the "fat lady" may need to do more tuning up first.  A couple of things to report from readers and contributors are on point.

Frist, from Robin Landry, one of the few brokers I know who has been watching this pending Super Cycle decline develop for years (and advising his clients appropriately, comes this bit of advice and a chart:

"The market action [yester]day is one step closer to giving me a clue as to what the market direction is likely to look like over the next few weeks. The chart above labeled SPX122806 is the chart I sent out on my last update dated 1/04/07. The S&P went higher for 6 more weeks and then turned down. [Yester]day's action not only broke the trend channel and the 50 day MA ,but fell close to the support area of 1350-1382 I mentioned in my last update. This area is a very important support zone which if broken will mean we are in a much larger decline and the alternate count is most likely in effect. Review the chart above and remember if this support zone is broken I then expect a drop to at least the June-July low area. I will keep you advised as time permits and circumstances warrant. Be very Careful."

As Landry's chart shows, there are two possible outcomes here.  One is that this is a normal correction (IV) on the way to (V), or the downside action marks the start of a much larger decline.  Landry (rlandry@charter.net) is a methodical guy and says there may be some significance to the fact that yesterday we saw both the 50 day moving average (50DMA) taken out as well as the 2-standard deviation trend channel.

Landry is not the only one with a "wait and see" view.  A web bot project subscriber offers this:

Climate Tipping

USA Today has a good article on a report that says a climate tipping point is near. The reality of this is frightening.  While the report says there is "no more time for delay" we have to note that financially driven decision-making is not going to press forward on anything until a way to make money has been found.  Maybe the Mogambo Guru's assessment of life ("We're all friggin doomed!") will turn out to be correct... expecting money lenders to think about anything except themselves is a stretch even for my wild imagination.

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A strange rock slide in San Francisco has scientists curious.  Although the larger west coast quivers/shakes with injuries are several weeks off according to our libretto.

 

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February 27, 2007

Dow Down 415: A Jaw Dropping Web Bot Hit

For a long time I've been warning about the high risk of financial meltdown (spreading to the US Dollar) beginning the period Feb 23-27.  This was all based on the amazing work of Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com who developed the proprietary way to "see" the future via subtle linguistic shifts on the public parts of the internet  days, months, and even years in advance - depending on the size of event.  With Cliff's kind permission, here's an extract from the report sent out to predictive linguistics - web bot - subscribers last weekend, reproduced with exclusive permission here and any linking or reposting much reference both www.urbansurvival.com  and the site of www.halfpasthuman.com:

"Markets - Iceberg Rolls Over, Gold Floats on Debt

The [illusion] of (prosperity) that has propped up the Bush administration these last 6/six years is breaking up. Unlike previous market situations, our data suggests that no mere correction is underway, rather what is happening is akin to the [economic] and [financial] iceberg of the USofA rolling over. The vastly disparate ratio of wealth transfer these last few decades, which accelerated to gigantic proportions under the Bush decider-ship, and which has resulted in the top 1/one percentile of the populace controlling 99/ninety-nine percent of the wealth, is about to [flip] or roll over. As with real icebergs, the process is observable only at the point rolling begins, and by then it is way too late to react. As with real icebergs, it is entirely unequal distribution of 'mass' which results in the flip. As with really big icebergs, the actual flipping can take minutes.

The data suggests that the economy of the USofA based markets, and specifically all forms of [usofa dollar] associated debts are rolling over, and the actual visible signs of the roll will be apparent on February 27, 2007. The roll has been initiated, and came 2/two days early for us on February 21, instead of the 23rd as we had supposed. However the 'weekend tension' is still showing as of this point in the processing of the immediacy values, and therefore is still showing as an inflection point in our modelspace. However the actual [visible flip/roll] shows for February 27. The coming period of 8/eight days leading up to the Ides of March release period will also be presenting more [visible] (manifestations) of financial crumbling, but by that time, it is far too late to react to stem the process. In fact, as of this interpretation, ...alea jacta est/the die is cast. Start running now, just guess correctly as to which way the iceberg will roll.

As part of the [economic] degradation, soon to be exacerbated by political degradation, the populace of the USofA is going to have to endure a Spring of [employment] (crashes). The data sets are quite clear about the projection, and it is very dire. The data being interpreted has been showing up for over the last 6/six months and has been posted in previous ALTA report series.

The fundamental core of our modelspace is the replacement of words. These words are showing up in basically the same sorts of conversations about the same kinds of things, but the nature of the words used to discuss all this same-old at the same-old, is different. So as an instance, since early July (2006) the Markets entity has been moved through modelspace by the replacement values associated with words used to describe 2/two very large {linguistically, that is lots of verbiage's on the internet} general areas. The dominant of these has been [housing], with the subordinate element being [instruments, paper/debt]. In this last area there are all the references to such things as stocks, bonds, derivatives, notes, et al. Further the lexicon for this group naturally contains references back to the other element [housing] just as within the [housing] lexical structure are supporting aspect/attributes which include [paper debt] and [note] references. This brief description is to provide a certain sense of the muddy nature of our interpretations. That is to say, the data sets are not usually very cleanly separated, and thus a certain amount of bleed-through on the interpretation will occur.

At this time the Markets entity is exhibiting what we have termed in the past "splitting behavior". We have seen this most frequently within the Bushista entity as the various layers of support feel away from the BushCo entity and subsequently the linguistic descriptor set was split or pared down to its current shape. Within the Markets entity, and specifically within the [usofa] sub set, a split of direction is becoming visible as the [housing] lexical element is now dropping below the neutral line. This occurs as a result of the summation of the emotional values associated with the words now linked to this [housing] aspect. As the summation drops past 0/zero and into the negative range, it has a tendency to drag down the entity as a whole by lowering the many related summations which compose an entities movement through modelspace. All that just as clear as crystal at the bottom of a lake on a cloudy day?

Well, here is the developing issue within the Markets entity. The [housing] sub set, a large sub set, is now dropping into negative territory, and this is JUST as the [paper debt] sub set is roaring along on a [stressed] (run up/climb). Further, the [housing] section of the data set is larger than the total [paper debt] sub set in several key ways within our modelspace. The data sets and processing that we use tend to put humans first over information. So the emotional component of [housing] in the real world will be several orders of magnitude more impacting than that of [stocks/bonds/et al] since more humans have houses than 'own' paper debt. The emotional bespoke values within the [housing] set include bespoke [fear], and secondary impacting verbs such as [crushing]. These sorts of bespoke emotion holding words are now dominating the [housing] section of the lexicon just as the [paper debt] side is making a step up into more abstract descriptor sets, that is, more emotionally 'removed' words. These twin effects have significantly shifted the relative weights within the Markets entity. The relative weight shifting within Markets entity as the modelspace is progressed forward into March is why it appears as an iceberg rolling over.

As one web bot subscriber noted:

"Nice call on rolling icebergs.  Just watched the 2% jolt to the US markets at 3mp EDT. Wow."

So without giving away the whole outline of what else is to come (you can get longer lead times by subscribing to the current run ($200 for the whole series over the next 5 weeks) , but we'll post the public warning parts here) let's just say that sometime around the middle of the month (our months of Ides of March references will come into focus)  a whole new direction of life will start unfolding and my store food/water/ and "investment grade diesel" comments may start to make sense even to remaining skeptics.

 

Don't forget to watch History Channel 9 PM Thursday night this week as I try to explain all this technology in a few seconds of TV air time in a "Decoding the Past: Doomsday 2012" documentary.

 

Bad Bombs, Worse Bombs

Bombs, in my book are very much like taxes:  There's bad, and then there's worse.  Starting today with a review of the "bad bombs" we read that Vice president Dick Cheney's trip to Afghanistan has been marked with a bombing outside the military base he was visiting.  More than a dozen people were reported killed in the attack, which we note is attributed to Taliban, not al Qaeda

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Bomb makers in Iraq also seemed bent on the vice president level of society with a bombing attack aimed at Iraq's vice president killing 10 on Monday.

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Bombs also figured into the latest Israeli invasion of Nablus, which seems to be over - at least for now.

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The "bombs meme" is really hot today in another way - seemingly pointing the way toward a bombing of Iran in March if we read the linguistics right, as the US military in Iraq is pointing to Iran as the source of bombing components being found in Iraq's civil war.

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The suicide bombing outside a college in Baghdad on Monday killed 41, reports the British press.  The weekend bombing near a Sunni mosque in western Iraq has killed 40 now, if you're keeping track.

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A suspect in the long ago Madrid train bombing says he had no role in those events.

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Not that bombs are an overseas phenomena: Bomb making materials have allegedly been found at a home in Bloomington Minnesota, and kids in North Caroline found a military practice bomb.  A man in Ohio reportedly had bomb parts,

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Now let's move on to "worse bombs".  For the most part the preceding stories were are about "small" bombs, not that 40 or more dead isn't significant, but it's nothing of the scale of a "grown up/worse bomb." 

 

While we read recently that the US military had called off plans to test a huge conventional bomb in the Nevada desert, we note on our Big Bomb peg that the UK is about to vote on modernizing its Trident missile fleet, a move that has led some to point out a little hypocrisy:  How can a British nuke bomb fleet of missiles be any less dangerous than an Iranian bomb asks one article?

 

Then we have the US military plan to come replace some of its Trident warheads with conventional ones.   This has a funny odor to it.  One the one hand, the military says the nukes for conventional warheads plan will give the US a new conventional "quick strike" capability.  I can't help but wonder if it's a not-particularly-subtle way to keep the Trident delivery platform alive in case we ever need it, in light of Russia's nuclear upgrade program and China continuing development.  Not that it would be a bad thing, but to come up with a 6-th grade level charade like "quick strike" instead of saying "we need to keep Tridents updated" taxes my patience with the five-sided building's spin meisters.

 

Meanwhile, as we've been draining ours precious national reserves with the oil war, the Russians seem to have just zipped by us with their new SU-30MK fighter, which looks like a dog fighter's nightmare opponent.  Click for some kick-ass video and then picture the planes in "Top Gun" (and their similar successors) taking on this.

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Sometimes big explosions just happen - like the probably sewer gas explosion in Nelsonville Ohio this past weekend. 

 

Other times, they are planned years in advance, and sometimes we are left wondering years after a "bombing" who was really the perpetrator.  For example, convicted bomber Terry Nichols has claimed in the past week that the FBI had a hand in the Oklahoma City federal building bombing, and an email this morning reminds me of this:

"Hi George,

Just in case you haven't been mailed this umpteen times before...

Watch this while it's still there. It's video of a BBC news show where they report WTC7 had collapsed over 20 minutes before it actually happened. About 3/4 of the way through, a live correspondent comes on the air talking about the collapse of WTC7 while the building is still clearly visible in the skyline behind her!

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=49f_1172526096 

My web browser abruptly crashed twice while trying to watch it!!

Alex Jones also has this over at Prison Planet.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/february2007/260207building7.htm 

In the comments section on Alex Jones site, someone also reported that similar footage from CNN, Fox, etc. had gone missing. (Text of comment pasted in below my signature.)

A lot of questions need to be answered about this."

Actually, no, they don't.  Remember that over the coming couple of weeks as we get into our standoff/high tension period between now and mid month.  Political figures have long known that voters only remember their latest headlines, and corporations -- which could be brought to heel if more people understood the power of voting with your wallet every day --pursue their bottom-line-only agendas with minimal public interruption.

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I was reminded in a conversation with my deflationist pal Jas Jain yesterday that if you have a mortgage, or more debt than you can pay off right this instant, you're not a free person.  While consumers could hold corporate exploitation by "the nets" so to speak, it's the other way around - they hold yours - and you, I'm afraid to report, can't do much more than squeal about it.  Sorry, facts is facts.  Why do you think the democorps haven't changed anything yet?  Here are some hints: "bite" "hand" "feeds".

 

Slicing Up the Booty

There's a worthwhile read in the San Francisco Chronicle this morning titled "Draft oil plan seen as breakthrough - Cabinet O.K.'s pact to divvy up the profits" of the Iraq oil war.
 

TXU Suspicions

While much of the press focused on the TXU buyout has been focused on the apparent scrapping of plans to build 11 coal fired power plants, we have to wonder if there's not more than meets the eye to this?  For example, the SEC is probing the trading surge ahead of the buyout report.  But I've got another take on it:  What if, for example, this is a maneuver by private corporate interests to profit largely from the ongoing attempted merger of the US, Canada, and Mexico into a North American Union? Higher rates for Texas and power exports to Mexico.  Yee haw!

 

Dud Day for the Street?

When I checked early this morning, it looked like a 50-point downer for the Dow might be in the cards, and with oil prices edging up ahead of inventory data,  that could certainly weigh on the markets.  But I wouldn't blame it all on oil.  The dollar is at a 2-month low vs. the Euro today thanks in part to departed Fed Bank deity Alan Greenspan's "I see a recession coming, maybe" remarks on Monday.

 

Also the price of gold is getting its characteristic beat-down this morning, although I'd observe that with the dollar expected to tank more as the year progresses, this may be just the big boyz driving down the price a bit for a better entry for their own accounts. At least, that would be my guess, and no, it's not trading advice.  I'm just reminding you that the predictive linguistics folks have Feb 27 as a start of a big slide for the dollar from here forward.  The catch is that even though the dollar can decline, the market could go up (temporarily) as stocks it could be argued may be valued just as gold and silver - as physical hedges, at least to the extent that a market share in America has value.

 

The great swing/crash move comes when the larger part of the market awakens one morning to learn that the US consumer has no purchasing power left and that no end of private money creation (e.g. via real estate refi's) can convince folks to take on more.  It's then that the roof falls in.

 

We Bee Thinking

Here's an interesting reader thought from the emails this morning:

"Ran across an interesting encyclopedia article on Honey Bees' unusual sensitivity to the Earth's magnetic field. (Scroll about half way down the article.) This all reminds me of the international Homing Pigeon competition in Europe a few years ago, during which the majority of the pigeons got lost and failed to reach their destination. Here is the encyclopedia link......... http://www.setiai.com/archives/000063.html "

Could Colony Collapse presage pole flip?  Bee on the lookout.

 

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Monday February 26, 2007

Two Weeks to Changepoint

If you're watching the wrong things, it may be because you don't have the libretto handy, as we have been so graciously provided by our colleagues at www.halfpasthuman.com.  But, even without that, you might be well-advised to skip the global mainstream press accounts of shared reality and go off on your own, seeking a personal context for the daily news that will help you prepare for the coming transition to a new lifestyle that will be much different than the one you have now.

 

Suppose I told you, for example, that over the past week to 10-days, a part of the planet nearly the size of Great Britain in area had flooded?  It would seem in comprehensible that such an event would go missing from mainstream media, and yet this morning 350,000 Bolivians, after suffering the effects of massive flooding in the Beni province area, uphill from the Brazilian Amazon Basin, and their regional capital Trinidad, like New Orleans not so long ago, is fighting to keep dikes from failing, ala the Big Easy. 

 

I expect that sometime this week, the story of Beni Province Bolivia will  thrust itself into the global mainstream, but perhaps not yet.  Give it a day or two, more rains, more rising waters, and more misery among Bolivians.  Then maybe...just maybe if it's a slow enough news day and mainstream can't find any other "global warming story", Oscars, or weeping judges, then maybe the threshold will be crossed and the story emerge into media consciousness.

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Not that mainstream doesn't report the obvious.  Of course, it does.  But US media is Americentric, if I can coin a word this early in the week; an outcome of Empire thinking, which has gotten us to the present condition.  While it's true that 40-people have been injured in Arkansas in another powerful tornado, no doubt some of our Americentricism is founded on the relative ease with which great news feeds are to be had from the Heartland, about to be hit again, if we read the headlines right. Fresh feeds and live helicams are in relatively shorter supply in Bolivia - and without a large supply oft reporters who speak English - backed up by lots of "B roll" footage, a story though big doesn't get legs easily.

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So what is the combination of stories that seem likely from today's dot on the timeline that are likely to pressure/shape/form what I call the "changepoint" just ahead?  And, while we're at it, just what is a "changepoint"?

 

The latter is an important concept to grasp:  Unlike tipping points in predictive linguistics, such as the "tipping point" that preceded 9/11 and was evident in modelspace as a "tipping point" that we wrote about in the summer of 2001, a "changepoint" may not be a single "event" per se, but rather a gathering of many events/stories/circumstances clustering around a period that in turn lead to big changes, such as the ones I expect between March 15 and the middle of September. A stew instead of a steak, sort of thing, and there's a lot to stew on:

 

One of the changes, for example, seems likely to be the breakdown of what has been an uneasy "truce" between democorps and republicorps over public discussion and prosecution of impeachment charges against the current regime.  Hence, while you'd expect democorps like Hillary Clinton to be vocally roasting the administration over it's war policies, she wont', likely because the 'corporate implications' for major defense contractors/donors are such that a "don't ask, don't tell" atmosphere prevails for now.

 

Somehow, the comments earlier this month by retired Lt. General William Odom, the Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) under Ronald Reagan, talking bluntly of military reality and saying "Victory is not an option" has been effectively buried by the corporate-controlled press. In place of serious discussions about the socioeconomic implications of wars to secure manufacturing economy resources, and the wild printing of paper assets and what that inevitably leads to, we're treated instead to the bread and circuses of Oscars, which I'm pleased to note Tom Shales of the Washington Post has the honesty to question

 

Not to grind this to an excessively sharp point, but we notice that the offices of journalists in Iraq were battered last week, another little mentioned event.  In Israel, too, the attack on dissenting media has continued, as their [latest] invasion of Nablus on the West Bank continues.

 

If you're keeping tabs, since this latest iteration of the Iraq Oil/Resource War started, 193 journalists have been killed   As one writer asked recently, "Would we be doing this is all they had was bananas?"

 

And speaking of which, Vice President Cheney's trip to Asia was not exactly warm last week, but we don't read much about the arrests for simply exercising free speech.  That's one reason why, when things turn dicey this summer, the internet may be at risk. Can't have too much freedom out there.  The tables have turned and corporations are masters now, having usurped government by the People..  Rock not the boat.

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The main thing I'm looking for now will be some kind of "7 Days in March" standoff starting next week before we slide into the abyss where a first strike begets more global anti-Americanism, and a possible oil shortage and raises the specter of a slaughter of our American forces in Iraq.  I certainly don't want that to occur - we owe our support to our troops.  Apparently neither does the Russian Foreign Minister.  But when Dick Cheney says that "all options are on the table", Condi Rice says "Iranians 'need a stop button,' and Israel has formally asked US permission to overfly Iraq to strike as our proxy, you don't 'need to be a weatherman to figure where the bind blows.'  Perhaps the "standoff" will be between the US military and the White House as some US Generals are ready to quit over an Iran strike.

 

A read of the New York Times /Erna Journal report on the propane shortage impacts on Maine may provide a sobering and prescient look at what's ahead in the near term for the US at large in the near future. And the new change of EPA mileage ratings underscores that the "illusion of progress" is just that - illusory.

 

Meantime, in Bolivia, the rains have let up, until next weekend.

 

Markets

Judging by how the futures are looking, at least the first part of the trading week should be an up one.  The new mass layoff numbers out from the Labor Department last week showed a drop below 127,000 victims in January, but the indicator is a rear view mirror look at the economy. 

 

Around the Ranch

Our youngish rooster, a recent addition to our flock, went back to the neighbors across the road this morning.  The three Rhode Islands females didn't take a liking to him.   A fine double entendre, the phrase "chicken peckers."  We'll bring him back when he's older and a more able to stand up for himself. 

 

Meantime, our "chicken moat" parts have arrived - several hundred feet of 8 foot steel T posts and 200 feet of poultry wire.  The idea is a simple one.  I reckon that if bugs got as much from our garden as we did last year, that surrounding the garden with a 15 foot wide 'chicken run' would give the birds a sporting chance to catch bugs before they get into the garden. And if they come out (not that I know why they would) they'd be well fed and juicier.

 

I've already been served with papers by the attorneys for the tomato plants who claim that my plan, which effectively puts their clients in a double-walled maximum security garden seems harsh.  Attorneys for the raccoons, who maintain their client's innocence in the of eating 48 ears of corn 3-days before human harvest last year, have also warned us of legal action.  "Cruel and unusual gardening!" declares their brief.  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

 

They apparently haven't yet heard about the electric fence on the outside of the outer wall of the chicken moat.  I expect they'll be shocked at my gardening techniques this year, but time will tell.

 

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George Ure, The People's Economist