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Feeds updated daily Saturday's Good News and Other As much as I understand the economic reality of the day, the lateness of the hour with regard to derivatives, and such, there's no question that some genuinely impressive good news is out there. For example, the announcement that the world's first bionic eyes will be entering trials, is a more important reason than most would think, for reason's I'll be getting into for Peoplenomics.com subscribers tomorrow. Don't spend a lot of time trying to figure out what it means (as it goes with a much larger discussion of causality), but just accept that artificial retinas are arriving now on a planet near you. --- If we skip past the few bits of good news, we get into the realm of "personality" news, which although it means nothing in reality, it still does a fine job of being part of the "bread and circuses" slop servers up by mainstream media. Not that I don't find it interesting that the actor who played Harry Potter does nudity now, or that Britney Spears has adopted a Telly Savalas / Yul Brynner hairdo, but in the greater scheme of life, death, and spiritual growth between, I don't see how that all much matters. But, then again, maybe I take life far to seriously. --- It is, however, largely serious. The House has passed a resolution rebuffing GW Bush on the troop surge, and the term "impeach" is showing up in everything from headlines in New London Connecticut to Israel. Being a president is never easy work to be sure, but lately, it seems more difficult than usual. And for the few presidents who have real oil supplies, there are problems, too. Hugo Chavez has just lopped three zeros off his countries currency, something our own Federal Reserve is doing, but at a much slower rate. We're about one and a half zeros off our currency since 1913. And, although he has oil to spare (at least for now) our cautions this week about Vlad Putin sounding rather much like a born again Cold Warrior is being echoed today in the Albany Times-Union which figures "Putin steps in Cold War time warp." Now time warping is something we know about.
Sanity's Retreat After a lot of cheerleading on Friday, it turns out that the reported GM-Chrysler deal will not be a merger, but something more like a strategic alliance. The stock market, at least as measured by the Dow Industrials, popped to a new record high this week, driven in part by a report that producer prices were down 0.6% in January and the core rate was up a very tame 2 1/2% (or so) annualized rate. Even though housing starts have crashed in January to near 10-year lows, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that "It's all good." Blame the weather, and let's run this sucker up some more.
The "bugs in your teeth" crowd has something to cheer about too: Harley's strike is over, we suspect because riding is not good at this time of year in the upper Midwest.
SanDisk is cutting jobs, perhaps because flash memory (jump drives or flash drive) prices have fallen so far, so fast.
While the markets roared upward, the environmental types are holding up the "Excuse me?" signs with reports that global temperatures just recorded the hottest January on record. The record that matters is the three-in-a-row for the Dow, not the news of weather or oil supplies.
Dow Loses 8.6% since 2000 Despite Record Our report this morning is concise because there is so darned much going on around the ranch, and as long as the Dow keeps bumping into the stratosphere, folks don't want to look at underlying facts - everyone figures they're smarter than everyone else and that they will know the time to exit the market. While the correct answer, to my eye, was early 2000, those who chase leveraged paper argue otherwise, but I just keep looking at the inflation-adjusted Dow and ask if you've missed your daily meds.
Here's why: Over on the left hand menu here, you'll see a link to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve's inflation calculator. I want you to click on it because it has now been updated to 2007 data (they should have done a press release, but the effects of harsh economic facts are difficult to predict, so we had to make do with Chairman Ben's comments this week which were about as vanilla as one could hope for).
You'll see that if you plug in 11,723 which was the 2000 Dow high, and then put in 2007 (sort of like asking "What should the Dow be priced at today to have just kept even with inflation?) you'll find we need the Dow to have hit 13,989.99 to have just held its value.
No, that's not likely to make a front page headline in the WSJ or Forbes. After all, what kind of fool editor would proclaim "Dow Loses 8.6% (excluding commission/dividends/etc) Despite Record Highs" except me?
I've got a ton of projects this weekend, so have a fine weekend but try to remember next week that your main job in life is building personal and spiritual wealth, not collecting paper. There's a huge and important message from Hugo Chavez this week which should challenge your thinking if the coffee has kicked in: the zeros might not matter. . Peoplenomics: Paper Addiction - Could we see a Crash of 2007? Our focus this week to a cool-eyed assessment of whether the global financial markets could collapse in 2007, a topic chosen because of the growing similarities between a group of alcoholics denying that they have a drinking problem, and the major industrialized nations of the world which have a paper creation problem. And just as alcoholism has a high probability outcome, so does an addition to "interest" based on printed paper called "money". The difference being the G-7 calls for "vigilance" on hedge funds, while an alcoholic is likely to promise not to drink so much. You know the name of that river, right? De Nile. --- Also this week: Results of our Jan 21 "How would you spend $10,000 to improve your survival?" contest. More for Subscribers Subscription Information
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Pipe's Open The new web bot run is in process and if you want to sign up, click over to Half past Human's site. Not for the weak of heart, and don't subscribe if you don't have your own house in good financial order and have supplies laid in for things like pandemic flu, and so forth. We can hardly wait for the first report from the new run sometime around March 7... --- As long as I have my "product pimp" hat on, You might want to look at the time monk's Vortex reading software. We use it to be able to digest text at 4-times (and more) our "normal reading speeds". Here's the kind of fan mail Vortex users send in: (You don't really think we could do all this stuff without being able to read things at 1,000 words a minute plus, and typing 100 do you?)
Friday February 16, 2007 Dogs, Pigs, Bulls, Bears - and Chickens At the risk of sounding like Old MacDonald, who we understand also had a farm, we find our preoccupation to be more with the various financial/investment animals, although I seem to recall the MacDonald place had dogs, pigs, and chickens as well. Modern Branding and Positioning Theory being what it is, however, we found the MacDonald spread's "E-I-E-I-O" brand questionable, except that the I'll be the first to admit that MacDonald's use of a catchy jingle was impressive.
OK, maybe it wasn't as impressive as TM Production's "The Winning Score" radio jingles, recorded in the early 1970's at Warner Studios if I recall correctly (and available in the achieves at www.reelradio.com along with its companion commentary on the future of broadcasting contained in a promotional spoof called "Tomorrow Radio" which introduced the concept of "Punk Country"), but whoever did the original MacDonald jingle was admittedly quite good. We've had to settle for a ranch named Uretopia and with a nod to the distant Midge Ure side of the clan, we might someday see if we can get the brand U2 for animal use, although our legal department fears first use issues and a brand-brand conflict. E-I-E-I-O they point out would have been a simple word mark, but U2 would be much harder to defend. But I've somehow digressed.... more coffee.... --- This weekend, our many Asian friends, most notably the Chinese and [central/northern] Vietnamese among them will be celebrating the end of the Year of the Dog and the beginning of the Year of the Pig. The Chinese communities in virtually all other Asian nations will take part, and we'll have to remember to send along a Chinese New Year greeting to our friends at one family association in particular, up in the Pacific Northwest. --- Chinese New Year is a BIG deal. In Asia, folks watch celebration spending on an indicator of the coming mood - and with the headlines out today that "Chinese New Year spending drops" we begin to wonder if the Year of the Pig will roast a few investors. I reckon the old Wall Street saying "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered" may hold some grains of truth.
It's been a mixed post G-7 week, with the Nikkei up about 370 points, Hong Kong down 110, and Oztralia was up around 36 points. So a mixed bag there. But the Shanghai index closed at a record high today, meaning that what we've called the "holiday effect" for pre-holiday rallies in US markets, may have been outsourced to Asia, like so much else.
In banking, we note that China has increased bankster reserve requirements to 10%, a move that may help to cool inflation a bit there and slow runaway growth in the consumer sector. Damn Central Committee Grinches. --- By tradition, the animal year you're born in has something to do with your temperament. However, when I read that being born in the Year of the Ox, I should tend to speak little, and inspire confidence, that seems to fly in the face of my personality traits. If you had children born this year, we read how they possess the "best traits of human nature"
If you're having kids after this weekend, but you know they're on the way,. expect them to be gallant and chivalrous, but I don't have any idea on how all that impacts their economic futures, except to recall that in the current greed-stricken world, the phrase "nice guys finish last" seems unfortunately close to the mark. So what point chivalry? Since the ERA and gay marriage, seems chivalry weighs on all equally - but in most cases not at all....but I digress...
Where such animal/personality predictions get muddied, at least to my mind, is that thanks to the Right To Life folks, I'm not sure just when the Chinese animal years actually kick in. Is it at the moment of conception? Is it when a heartbeat is established? Or, is it when the offspring takes the first gulp of air? Absent the huge number of lawyers (and accountants) that we grow in the US (though not enough for export, as I see it), the Chinese have managed several thousands of years worth of culture without picking such things apart. Perhaps we can export Western Reductionism? --- It's a cinch that trade with China will be in focus again in the coming year. And, with the Balance of Trade already gone to the Dogs, we figure a few boardrooms will try to cut a fat hog as China's consumer spending power rises. To with the International Herald Tribune headlines today that "Dodge joins stampede into China market: DaimlerChrysler sales sales to begin in 2007" Although we only have a half dozen Feng Shui books here at the ranch, our dusty copy of "Feng Shui Approaches to New Auto Introductions in a Crazed Globalist Market System" says DaimlerChrysler should have timed their entry for a Year of the Ram. But, needs must as the devil drives.
Harold Jackson, writing in the Philadelphia Inquirer today admits to being worried about the continuing trade deficit with China, as are we. If we could just export some of our social ills, attorneys and accountants, maybe there'd be hope... --- Some of the omens for the Year of the Pig are already ill, presaging perhaps that instead of some much kah-ching (as in cash registers), there will be more I Ching (as in efforts to focus on the future via hexagrams). I sense this by looking as one story in particular this morning.
The background is that many of my Chinese friends exchange gifts (gifting is very important in Chinese culture) and in my circle, Godiva chocolates were/are favored. So when I read that Hershey, the famous Pennsylvania chocolate maker is laying off 1,500 workers, I begin to wonder if life is losing some of its sweetness. Maybe there's more impact from the corn-for-ethanol than just rising high fructose corn syrup prices than I thought. --- In conclusion, I should point out that among Asia cultures, next week's start of the year of the Pig is alternatively called the Year of the Boar, which has a slightly different/bigger/wilder connotation. But, I won't bore you with it, except to say the among the Feng Shui types, Boars are Bullish. I guess to remain interesting, we'll remain doggedly bearish. You can call me chicken.
Strange Bedfellows But seriously: We read the CNN headline that "Venezuela to beef up security after al Qaeda threat" and it strikes us as a bit odd. On the one hand, we have to wonder why al Qaeda would attack Venezuela because presidente Chavez is big on tweaking the US - and AQ would no doubt see some value to that. Plus, AQ/militant Islam is making some inroads into South America, we expect by focusing their marketing on the "have nots". But, on the other hand, Venezuela does provide a whopping chunk of US oil, so in a sense, the security increase may be justified. But when we think about it, AQ may be pushing Chavez and Bush toward a common goal...I mean besides ruling by decree, which they already seem to have in common. Who would have thought?
Cold War 2 We have speculated for some time that there was more to the Russians beefing up their ICBM fleet than meets the eye. Now, there's an Interfax Reuters report in the Washington Post that says yes indeed, "Russia may scrap US arms control treaty: Intefax" --- Meantime, there's some real serious comedy going on at the State Department, where we wonder if there really is a drug testing program. here's why: The US, as you know, is trying to get elements of our missile shield program installed in Poland and Czechoslovakia.
So I whip out my Streets and Trips and start looking at trajectories and try to figure out who in the Middle East has missiles that the US would feel compelled to protect against. I see, for example, that if Israel was going to launch a surprise attack on Denmark, that such a statement might make sense to have a missile shield outpost in Poland. Or, if Syria was going to attack London. And, I suppose that if you're worried about Tehran lobbing nukes at DC, you'd want an outpost in far northeastern Poland, but Belarus would be better.
But, let's be serious here for a minute: Tehran doesn't have a long range delivery system operational. But, the Russians have a very credible, blow your butt up on a whim, system and they're upgrading it. So why isn't the US just coming out and telling it like it is?
I have two suspicions. They don't want to let on that there is a new arms race being manufactured, or alternatively, maybe Israel has designs on Denmark, or worse, maybe Egypt has it in for Norway.
OK, here's the truth. War is the BIGGEST of BIG business. And if you don't understand that economic underpinning, my role as the People's Economist has failed. As my unindicted coconspirator in telling it like it is, Michael Nystrom over at Bull-Not-Bull shows this morning, if you wanted an easy 300% return in 4-years, you could have hit the bull's eye (bad pun, but it's Friday) by investing in the Defense Index.
One last time: Now that the difficulties of wasting the whole of the Middle East are coming into focus, the defense gang needs to ramp up another spending channel - or to put on my consulting hat, I'd say "We need more than a sandy niche market - let's ramp up to mass markets!" which is why the footsie over Cold War 2 is ramping up. Money's to be made in fear gear.
Thursday February 15, 2007 About Blow-off Tops The past several of nights have been sleepless for me. Many projects for my consulting client, one of Elaine's sons coming to visit for a few days which entails getting the recording studio capabilities tuned up as it's marvelously entertaining, my 58th birthday coming up next week and (thanks to the time monks) a long-running nightly argument about whether causality is an illusion - more on that for subscribers to Peoplenomics.com this weekend.
But, last night, all of these things (did I mention the finishing off and cabinetry for my remodeled home office?) all of these things were shoved to the background by an email from a long-time reader/contributor Bruce C who laid an amazing series of emails on me:
A few hours later he followed up another note:
The third email sandwiched between these two, was a simple chart and the question:
Another chart suggested to me that while the California housing trend may have been down, it could be about to settle out at previous decline levels somewhere near where it is today:
Or will it?
The emails in total bring to mind THE question of the decade for investors: How would we recognize a "blow-off top" in the market(s) today? I mean, no one at the major brokerage firms would send out emails saying "Sell, sell! The top is in, everyone run from the Street!" That's not going to happen because the financial sector's "strong hands" have a vested interest in selling to the 'weak hands" at the top.
Perusing a few posts over at Trade2Win.com, I knew I wasn't the only one who is pondering the classic run-ups and subsequent declines characterized by an accumulation of shares at the bottom, a subsequent markup during which prices move, and then the subsequent distribution (to weak hands) who tend to "buy at the top." --- All of which weighs on me not because of any personal investments at risk (we've been out of the market since playing the short side of options in 2001-2002 and switching to gold and ag land then) but because of the potential this time around for a massive market correction to literally kill the US Dollar.
Every morning as I comb through various news sources, the fate of the dollar is on my mind because the folks at www.halfpasthuman.com with their time/event predictive linguistic software and analysis have me looking for extraordinarily high unemployment this summer/fall, something like a major political stand off and then release events many times the size of Katrina-Rita (in emptional impact terms) over the late spring and through summer, and a massive economic "episode" involving the dollar, starting between now and the first few days of March.
As I read about the government's attempt to roll out (yeah, pun intended) new US Dollar coins, or read about the JA Yen reaction to Happy Ben's chat yesterday which drop the Dow to new highs, I ask myself "How would I recognize a blow-off top?"
Although I'm a long-term believer in gold, I'm also mindful that most of its movement lately has been fueled by dollar declines and movement in the forex (foreign currency exchange) markets, not because the American public has experienced a "group sober up" on the question of living beyond our means and rolling out 'paper' to cover our sins.
It's not like the rest of the world is presactly innocent in here, either. As the reality of Peak Oil comes dancing along, the huge chess game at the international level is more oil-centric than ever, and moves like Russia's apparent deal with the Saudis on nuclear power should speak volumes to even the most skeptical. As yourself this: If the Saudis really have all the oil that's claimed, why would they even think of pursuing a nuclear deal with Russia?
You and I can argue the find points of Peak Oil - and whether it's ahead of us, or behind, but the reality of geopolitics is Russia and China are doing deals. The International Energy Agency has just increased its projection for Chinese oil consumption, too. That's where we get to the problem which I can managing the Petri dish.
While we're concerned, of course, about al Qaeda's threat to attack US oil interests worldwide, I'm seeing the markets trying to work out a huge balancing act - which it turns out, is inherently unstable, because its driven by market forces.
On the one hand, a good-sized recession (or even a depression) for the West would be a good thing. Why? Because as the world screws its way toward a global body count of 8-billion humans, a Depression would be a resource-extending gentle slope into a generalized global population decline.
On the other hand, a continuation of the blow-off (and I think that's where we are now) would fuel continued excessive consumption/debt here in the USA, and because we buy so much crap from China, that in turn will keep China's factories humming, which will raise their incomes, and fuel increasing demand for oil (and other resources) by the Chinese!
Now, instead of gathering the universe of "best thinkers" to plot a happy-ending to the global balancing act problem, what we have are competing forces of the West (USA/EU and proxies) in a strategic battled with China/Russia/India/Brazil (see: BRIC) and a third group of allies, the largely Muslim oil states, which are only kept from acting in a unified way by the current Sunni-Shiite differences. In a sense, the West and the BRIC's have an interest in that continuing, although while our game is to advance the West's oil position long term, the BRIC folks are woking the other side. It's some stew.
As usual, I try not to focus too much on the daily flow of plain old news, rather devoting head space to sorting out the longer view of economics. So if there's anything I can suggest as a good alternative to watching the news drones, it would be some independent research into the definitions and indicators of a "blow-off top".
In particular, I'll be watching volume on the NYSE, program trading states, and doing my own back of envelope calculations of "on-balance volume". I expect Joe Granville's gonna be right. Again.
Since we're off the stock trading tracks, we have the relative luxury of watching the two onrushing trains: market optimism resulting in upward price pressures vs. economic and resource reality which we reckon will soon collide. Should be one hell of a train wreck to watch for those of us who have voluntarily reduced our lifestyles to something near sufficiency levels in advance. . Whaling Adventures Continue We read today how a Japanese whaling ship has caught fire off the Antarctic. Bummer, for sure, but the Japanese car sales won't be imported. American consumers don't vote with their wallets (except for more creature comforts). If everyone in the USA boycotted Japanese goods. until they stopped whaling, maybe things would change. But media-hypnotized consumers don't operate that way, do they?
Your Tax Dollars at work A news military satellite base is being planned for Australia. Some there aren't thrilled, but whatcha gonna do?
February 14, 2007 ♥ Looking for Love and MFMB ♥ My son, single in Seattle and 26, refers to this not as Valentines' Day but "Singles Awareness Day" to put it in a more politically corrected vernacular. His two sisters seem to have good, steady relationships going - not to mention pets - but my son's quest for the perfect woman has frustrated him to the point where some of his miscreant friends have put an ad on Craig's list on his behalf - he's avoided the pets as love source/substitutes because he's a fanatic about keeping his apartment clean and besides, pets are, to his way of thinking, an unnecessary expense that he can't deduct for tax purposes. His solution was to buy himself a ticket for 10-days in Amsterdam. I don't expect he will find love there, I expect he will find something. --- While updating our "shortages" chart (which is just shy of the 20,000 returns mark, by the way - a new record high today) I couldn't help but notice some of the "love" related stories making headlines. We loved reading that the "Helium shortage won't deflate valentines", at least in part of Pennsylvania. And we scoped out the report from Gainesville that "GRU hit by nationwide shortage of fluoride" but concluded that wouldn't impact anyone's ultra bright teeth to the point of impeding their sex appeal. Not to floss over the point, I'd direct you to a news release that the "Fresh Breath Clinic Promotes Getting Close on Valentine's Day and Every Day."
So "What is the People's Economist talking about with "MFMB?" you're asking. Well, I long ago concluded that for couples (dating and married) the answer to the breath problem could be largely avoided by eating the same foods. My thinking was pretty simple and this is the right day to trot it out again: Chemistry is not something that varies much from one spot on earth to another, and so I reckoned that putting the same chemicals into the same environment (assuming your partner's body temp is the same as yours) you'd get the same results/smells/by-products.
So, whenever the subject of food was brought up, I simply focused on my theory "Matching Food - Matching Breath" or "MFMB" for short, and things seem to have worked out nicely. The trouble begins when one person eats garlic and the other doesn't. --- Whether driven by one-sided garlic, or a lack of fidelity, or interest, divorces do happen - although just two for me so far. My favorite definition of divorce is where a man "Finds a woman who will learn to hate him, and buys her a house." An interesting view of prenuptial agreements in the Orlando Sentinel's Opinion section this morning is perhaps worth a read. The author of the article, Sheryl P. Kurland, is the author of "Everlasting Matrimony: Pearls Of Wisdom From Couples Married 50 Years Or More" and I wonder if MFMB isn't in there somewhere. Yup, that should go on the reading list, too. A book is cheaper than a divorce.
Another "secret" is that if you work from home, and you require a high level of concentration, you consider having the home office in a separate building - even if it's a remodeled garage, barn, or in our case, pole building. After living a couple of years on a 40-foot sailboat, Elaine and I really appreciate space. --- Love, and other focused positive emotions, place higher on my list of "important things in life" the older I get for the simple reason summed up in a quote one of our readers puts on the bottom of each of his emails now that he's semi-retired from being a publishing baron:
Nevertheless, as important as growing/finding/sharing love is, I admit a certain disappointment when I read headlines like the CBC's "Love me not! Companies capitalize on anti-Valentine's Day movement."
Maybe the commercialization of the day feeds into it. An AP story headlines "Zoo tours cash in on hot monkey love." Oh boy...
And then there's the candy business - a chocolate-centric biz at that - and our kudos to the Hartford Courant for pointing out in the article "From Fair Trade Cocoa, a Valentine's Chocolate" that many cocoa farmers make $300 a year or less. I don't think I need to remind you that this underscores how "rich" countries that pimp free trade are really really just exploiting wage rate differentials between the haves and have nots, spun into left/right politics for an easier handle. Have and have-not is just so harsh (albeit real). --- Valentine's Day is when a lot of folks demonstrate (although you could substitute the term "monetize") love buy purchasing various precious metal trinkets. So it's against this background that we are pleased to notice that the spot price of silver popped over $14 today - doubling since I told you we had purchased - and would hold from the roughly $7 level as a long term investment.
While reading the Forbes headline "Gold rallies above 670 usd, hits fresh 7-month high" I penciled out my personal outlook. If silver's first run (in Elliott terms) was from 7 to 14, a $7 gain, and then it pulled back If silver gets through the April 2006 levels (around $14.35) I figure in Elliott terms that could put silver's upside around $20. Gold at $1,000 or more. Just as a guess...
I'd love that. Sorry about what happens to the dollar as a consequence, but I've never been in love with debt instruments anyway. Besides, the real damage isn't till month end. --- Love continues to be in short supply in the international arena, although there are two points which might be taken as progress. One is that Business Day reports "New talks with Iran a possibility, say EU leaders" and the second is the Jerusalem Post headline that "North Korea deal prototype for Iran"
We have have to wonder about this, and whether it's just "wishin' and hopin', because the North Korea deal reportedly is almost identical the one the West wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole in the early days of the Bush administration. What's given seems to have been US.
And Joint Chief's Chairman Peter Pace casts doubt on Tehran's links to Iraq's militias. We admire Pace for telling it like it is in the face of the non-stop neocon efforts to tweak Iran. But then we had already figured that out anyway.
The Rense Mystery I checked this morning and still can't seem to get into www.rense.com. There are some reports that it's due to a server upgrade, but this has been going on almost a week now... I'll try to contact Jeff today and see what's going on. Yeah, it concerns us.
Weather in Your Face The Drudge Report notes that a global climate hearing was canceled because of an ice storm in the DC area. Silly me, I thought there would be enough hot air in DC to prevent that - who would have guessed?
Our Next Credit Card I may have to call my Bank of America personal advisor and have a little discussion with him. here's my thinking. You have no doubt read the stories about how B of A is now giving credit cards to people with no social security number, right?
Well, here's my thinking: If I can get B of A to change my accounts to no social security number, then I could conveniently forget to mention any income associated with that account when tax time comes. You see, one of the things people agree to when they sign up for a bank account is to play by bank/IRS/tax rules. But, absent a SSN to tie your account into the banking system, how would that work? And, if you sign up for an account online, but you don't have a signature card on file, are you really liable for taxes...but that's another story about legal straw men.
The way I picture the underground economy working is: Some folks will get paid cash, have a credit card with no driver's license or SSN, then do whatever with online services and effectively operate outside the tax code. Interesting conceptually, huh?
I wonder if B of A has the applications in English? Another question for my personal banker. It's can be that easy. Maybe I could get someone at the bank to translate the application for me into English?
Mogambo Wednesdays Click here after 8 AM for the latest.
Tuesday February 13, 2007 Copyright Bites The future of UrbanSurvival seems to remain bright thanks to a decision when I founded the site not to merely pick and repost whole news stories from other media. Rather, the goal around here is to present a larger context of the days events, from the admittedly quirky perspective of the People's Economist persona, and use available news sources (with links for reference) as a scholarly effort. Whether you agrees with my "scholaring" is neither here, nor there. It's a key point to munch for breakfast because the decision was made early on in order to steer well clear of potential copyright violations.
No, I don't know what happened to Jeff Rense's site, but I was often curious about how they viewed copyright works. "I wonder how they can get away with having people reposting whole articles" I asked myself, time and time again.
Today, we can report that Google has lost a key copyright case in Europe that involves a string of Belgian newspapers that complained about how Google linked to their sites and they have - at least for now - have won, reports Business Week..
If you look at Google's news site, http://news.google.com, you'll see that what Google seems to do is grab a headline from a source, take the first paragraph of the headline, and offer a link via the headline (or related stories). Thus, it would appear that what Google is doing, it could be argued, it presenting a short citation with a link to a source. And, absent any commercial (e.g. for profit) content on their news headline page, it could be argued that this is within the "fair use" provisions of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act.
The other side of the argument however, it could be argued that Google is not engaging in any original works, and is merely "piggy backing" on the original works of the Belgian papers. One could argue that minus some what's called in the old world of newspapering, some "enterprise" beyond cutting genius level spidering code, sites that allow large scale cutting and pasting of whole stories as the bulk of their content, could be in trouble. Google will no doubt appeal.
I expect that for many sites - such as the Drudge Report and UrbanSurvival/Independence Journal - the Google suit is just another story. While the Drudge Report sometimes uses the same headline as an underlying newspaper, they also often provide much different headlines than what a newspaper has written, and thus, have done some "enterprise." In addition, when Matt Drudge have an exclusive, then Drudge is for sure in the content creation business. Google doesn't seem to do much of that.
Around here, I try to find a contextual theme for an article that I write, and the use the newspapers as data points, just as a scholar in a an academic setting would use citations (footnotes, etc) and that's the purpose of the links provided herein. Say, I wonder if anyone at Google would like to buy syndication rights to Urban, huh? They've got tons of money and I enjoy writing... --- It's not like the Google case is the only one in play, though. MySpace has been pushed to start looking for ways to filter copyright content off its servers.
--- It all gets back to "enterprise" - and it's something we've already seen in the music business. Not only has copyright gotten to be an "in your face" deal among illegal file-sharing music fans, but additionally, musicians (such as rappers and remixers) can't lift too much from earlier original works without some kind of licensing, or they do so at risk.
For clever headline writers and rewriters of news, or commentators and scholars, the moves afoot to actively enforce copyright laws may seem like "powers that be" trying to throw a big chill on the wide-open communications world of the internet. But, as a writer for a portion of my living, I'm somewhat sympathetic to the newspapers who don't want to be ripped off, and the intent of the copyright laws is to balance the financial interests of a work's creator with the broader public interests.
Still, I've been expecting since I started this web site in 1997 that in the end, original authors, song writers, and video producers would be protected in some way from wholesale thievery, as would sites that have a context (cynical economic here, in case you haven't notice) and generally present multiple links to establish or demonstrate context, or single links to update an already existent contextual discussions on the site in a pseudo-scholarly, or at least commentary-like way.
Sometimes I make good strategic decisions, and in this case, it looks like I made a good call when starting this site. It has just taken history and market forces much longer than I expected to catch up. I expect the coming tests in court will largely center around this single theme: Is there enterprise involved? --- One of my favorite academics is a fellow named Andrew Odlyzko, and he wrote a paper back in 2001 titled "Content is not king." There are some great facts in Odlyzko's work, and specifically there's one key paragraph about the value of content versus advertising that sticks in my mind:
What I sense is going on - behind all the maneuvering over copyright lately, is that content creators are trying to maintain their revenue streams undiluted by reposters, file sharing, and pirates.
Odlyzko's content as a fraction of Postal revenues could be extended even further than the newspaper subsidies.
Revenue stream ratios exists in the music industry, television, and so forth, when you think about it because collateral materials such as posters, etc augment primary performance income. Sure content may be more important in some media, but those ancillary revenues - the clothing/apparel/shoe endorsements - it's all the same thing - revenue.
Every time I turn on a sporting event on television, I ask myself: "Would this sport exist in mass media form if it wasn't just a way to get people's attention long enough to sell them something via a "sold to an advertiser" commercial?" Thus, mindful of Odlyzko's "Content is not king", when I look at media companies, I ask myself "Who has the best ratio of advertising income to content cost?"
It's sad, but Odlyzko's insight is right in ways that go far beyond his paper's focus - it explains to me why sitcoms and other "lowest common denominator programs" (like 'reality' shows) rule commercial television - because that venue provides one of the high returns in advertising dollars relative to content cost. --- To take this further - and to sort of wrap around to the point of today's main article - when an "enterprise work" is massively redistributed two things occur: First, it gives the redistributors "free content" until a court catches up, as Google has just experienced in the Belgian case. And, it thereby dilutes the potential revenue from ad sales by the content creator; to the extent redistribution infringes on it's primary distribution channel. (There won't be a quiz on this.).
And oh yeah, I should mention that while I agree that "content is not king", I notice again that money sure as hell is.
Balance of Trade Sucks... ...at least somewhat more than expected. Consensus was running that we would dig a further $59 billion for December. Turns out to be $61.2 billion deeper - which ought to slam the dollar and help gold, huh?
What's amazing is that we can keep this charade of prosperity going on borrowed money. Is this an amazing world, or what?
Korea Nuke Deal We have mentioned before how the Koreans have been working on building nuclear weapons. Now, we hear that they've decided to end the efforts in return for a big package of aid and promises. The strategic question is this: Have they agreed to stop counterfeiting US money? Have they agreed to stop development of long range submarine based missiles? I think not. If I were a betting man, I would wager a few bucks on the idea that either they already have built a few nukes, have a side deal with someone else to supply them, or they have made enough progress on bioweapons that they figure nukes aren't necessary. What if they have developed a DNA-specific bioweapon that could wipe out everyone of non- Korean blood? That stuff of novels - or why they rolled over? Your call.
Whale of a Story We keep reading about run-ins the Sea Shepherd people are having with a Japanese "research" whaler in the Southern Ocean. We notice the US is backing Japan's role in this because the whaling is called "research" whaling. If that's so, is the International Whaling Commission watching the Japanese ship's books to ensure it's really research and products for market aren't coming from the operation? Methinks not, but I'd love to be wrong. The location, timing of, and the participation in the Whaling Commission meetings ought to tell you something.
Oh, Olive Oil No, Popeye, not that Olive Oil. The other one - the one that may be good for people with gastritis and peptic ulcer disease.
Speaking of Ulcers
Africa's Weimar I've mentioned previously about the inflation in Zimbabwe. You'll be shocked with the latest reports that inflation there is running 1,594% on an annual basis, reports an AP dispatch in the International Herald Tribune. .On the other hand, just think what that would be doing to stock prices. Oh? Did I say something? You seem a bit pale....Take comfort my friend that the latest reconstruction of M3 (M3b) by Bart over at www.nowandfutures.com looks like its loafing along at an annual rate of only 11.2%, or so. --- Well, not to kick sand in your face, although we do own a gold coin which ought to fare well through any inflation, but according to Yahoo's figures, the Dow closed the first day of trading this year at 12,474.52. In order to just keep even with inflation at the M3 (digidollars counted) rate, the Dow ought to be at about 12,600, or it won't even retain its purchasing power. That's admittedly ignoring dividends, but that also ignores commissions and fund costs if you play that game. Now you can explain to your friends why the Fed played "hide the sausage" with M-3 last year.
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February 12, 2007 Enjoying Our Paradigm Shift Saturday morning, in a number-crunching mood, I decided to rewrite the headlines by replacing country names with their relative holdings of global oil reserves, because it might explains a few things. Not to grind it in (as most people miss our Saturday editions, being preoccupied living life, and such) but the USA become 2%, Iran 11.6%, Iraq 10.6% and Russia 7.3%, and so forth.
Thus, a headline from this morning like "US builds case of Iran smuggling weapons to Iraq Shiites" morphs to "2% builds case of 11.6% smuggling weapons to 10.6%'s Shiites."
Meantime, we read there have been at least 55 people killed and more than a hundred injured in 10.6% blasts.
And we can enjoy the smoothness of Russian diplomacy as we morph the New York Times headline "Putin seeks expanded ties with Saudis on Arab Tour" to a more significant: 7.3% seeks expanded ties with 24.2% (Saudi) on 63.4% tour.
Another headline to watch (because it comes at a moment when out linguistic pals think there might be some kind of "standoff" will be George the Decider going to 4.8% in March as reported in 1.4%'s People's Daily.
(The Saturday update is available by clicking here). --- Something you need to be aware of is that I simply used the low-side estimates off Wikipedia for my example. An oil industry expert, Jeffrey Brown, offers this reminder that there's a gulf (ok, pun intended, it's early) between what will eventually be actual extracted and "claimed reserves"
Agreed - and point taken, although it's the paradigm that mattered...Matthew Simmons in "Twilight in the Desert" also questions the reality of the Saudi reserve claims. --- One other oil related: My friend Jim ("The Long Emergency") Kunstler has a great post up at AlterNet titled "Ten Ways to Prepare for a Post-Oil Society". --- And if you're counting down to Iran, 11.6% being an even bigger prize than 10.6% (if we can hang onto that) consider this from our well-informed hot spot source who we call the Wandering Texan:
Points to ponder...but we have to wonder what Vlad's thinking/testing on his Middle East tour about now...
The G-7's Addiction As I mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, the G-7 got together (which is what the seven largest industrial powers in the world do - meet to stack things this way or that) and they came off sounding like a bunch of alcoholics talking about the evils of drinking and who's going to be the first to mend their ways. Except, instead of an addiction to booze, we're talking about the addiction to paper assets, interest, and the easy way out - right over by the "free lunch" counter.
So what we see coming out are statements about how the G-7 "urges vigilance about derivatives" and then officials urge everyday folks to "avoid one-way bets" against the yen. It's all about them quitting drinking...er...printing paper...but while everyone knows it's a financial game with a thermonuclear ending, all the players are waiting for someone else to go first.
So, in the wake of this, we see the dollar has been jammed up this morning, resulting in a fall of gold prices (not that we worry) and a small drop in the Euro (less worrisome, still). It's a bankster's vision of an reality TV show - perhaps we'll title it Doomed Planet.
Going to Temple Not Texas, and not Salt Lake, not Orthodox or Reformed - this time we're talking about the Temple Mount. Apparently, a couple of archeologists have found the exact location of the ancient religious site - quite an accomplishment given the public outcry over the digs. Key: "According to the research's findings, the rock upon which the Dome of the Rock was built in the 7th century is outside the confines of the Holy Temple."
Global Warming Flipped Well, on the other side of record heat around the world, comes record snow for folks in upstate New York. If the Lakes would freeze earlier, we wouldn't be seeing these headlines, would we?
Media Changing The internet may spawn a new genre of picturefone/videofone/webcam/videocam reporters. Meantime, someone sent me some stats recently that showed something like 80% of Americans didn't read a book last year (!). Life, it seems is becoming more and more a series of back-to-back sound bites ala the short message format.
Talking Urinals Oh, boy, is this one flush with pun potential: New Mexico has ordered 500 urinal cakes that will deliver antii-DWI messages. Not that DWI isn't a pisser of a problem, mind you. The batteries in the units will last about 3-months, but when the bunny dies (which used to mean something else), I wonder who'd want to change them? And, given the porosity of the New Mexico border, we wonder if they shouldn't be bi-lingual? Wonder if they're water-activated? Hell, it's almost worth driving to Las Cruces for a short beer to find out.
Life in the Republic Here in the land where the Texas flag is allowed to fly at equal height to Old Glory, we notice that Governor Rick Perry is in hot water with a lot of folks for his Merck-friendly mandate to require cancer vaccinations for all 6th grade girls, unless parents object. A good read of things can be found in the Texarkana Gazette's op-ed page this weekend, but it stops short of noting, as the Houston Chronicles reports today, that a former Perry Chief of Staffer went to work for Merck. And while Perry's stock holdings are in a "blind trust" we have to wonder how much - if any - Merck stock his trust holds.
Dot Connecting Time OK: Two headlines. First, six people die in a Canary Islands tunnel exploration accident. Our second dot is the 6.0 earthquake about 630 miles northeast off the African coast. Things are moving underground.
Now think about La Palma and how Cumbra Viejo has the potential to scrub off most of Florida. (page 5)
Billions Update From the mail bag:
Gee, I sincerely regret being off, but 3-hours and 14 minute to blow through a billion is a lot worse than we first reported...Double compound Yikes!
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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