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Sunday Special Update: We Own the Future Hawaii Quakes: Web Bot Hit As a reader of UrbanSurvival, you're no doubt aware that we have been privileged to have exclusive access to future predictive technology developed by my friend Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com. You will also recall that I've been warning of a "Major October earthquake for a long time - in fact, on August 15th, I was interviewed for a television documentary on "prediction" that is planned for air this winter. In that interview, I explained in general terms how the technology works and that it was forecasting, among other things, a large Western US earthquake in October. It was to be the denouement of the "Five Toes Kick Ass" earthquake sequence that has been developing in web bot modelspace.
Fast forward to 7:07 AM local time in Hawaii today. A 6.3 (preliminary) quake which left much of the island of Oahu without power, people stepping on broken glass in their pajamas, and much concern about damage to buildings in the capitol.
Now, when I say "We own the future", we have tried to share glimpses of events in advance:
But now let's skip the "we told you so" and reveal publicly for the first time the specific forecasts that was given to web bot project subscribers in April and June of this year (No forwarding or posting without links and credit, please):
So as we watch the news for the balance of the day, we expect to see the personalities come forward and for additional portions of the forecast events to be fulfilled.
Oh, and about that referencing of latitude 50? Sorry. In our post quake debriefing today, we concluded that the reference to 50 (which we errantly took for latitude) was to the 50th State and that all of the "Five Toes Kick Ass" entity (more on this in a sec) were islands.
Going back to a previous future scanning run, ALTA 1006 (April 7, 2006) we find where the whole notion of the five quakes starting with the May quakes in Indonesia laid out pretty clearly:
So, if we read this right, the Sunday quake in Hawaii should be dominating headlines for several weeks to come. That's if there's not another Big One lurking around this same timeframe. But for now, it looks like the Sunday Hawaii Quake was "it". If you go back and read our week ending June 17th report, based on ALTA run data, the "kick off" event of the five toes sequence was the Indonesia quake which came complete with the forecast "wedding interrupted."
Just wait till we get to the October 24-26 timeframe. If the bots are right, and you thought the quake was interesting, what's coming ought to shock you to your core.
Custom Web Bot Run Our friends at www.halfpasthuman.com are putting together a custom run for a hedge fund or two. If you are interested in gaining a radical linguistics peak at where the future seems to be headed - and you can afford to spend in the low five figures for 60-70-pages of future predictive research that is more trading and markets oriented than the general web bot runs, please click here for details.
Saturday October 14, 2006 Well Founded Skepticism You may recall yesterday I was one of the few - almost lone - voices expressing skepticism about the alleged "nuclear" test byt North Korea last Sunday. Today, ITV reports US officials have not been able to find any sign of radioactivity from the test. The wave of skepticism is slow building because the US led rest of world gang is busy trying to figure out how to punish North Korea - for what may be a farce. While John Bolton and company have whipped up a big frenzy in the UN - where a vote may come today - don't you think definitive proof would be appropriate? What's going on now is like a global lynch mob. --- Not that I am a fan of North Korea - don't get me wrong. But in the world of twisted personalities, it would not surprise me in the least is NK is pulling a global sucker punch in order to justify a real attack on the US (perhaps in connection with al Qaida or others of that ilk). In such a scenario, NK would claim a nuke was tested, then reveal it wasn't a nuke, then when the world retaliates in an over-reacting way, use that as justification to really set off a nuke - but in the US as opposed to in their own back yard. But then I guess I've watched enough nutjobs to see how such a scenario could be played.
Killing for Peace The administration has issued an executive order which imposes new sanctions on the Sudan. Has the US suddenly gone humanitarian? Nope. Sudan has oil. This is a resource constrained world. A bigger UN "peacekeeping force" will no doubt mean more than the already 200-thousand dead in the conflict.
Georgia Simmers The UN meantime has extended its stay in a breakaway part of Georgia by another six months. --- Other action in the former Soviet Union states: A group of radical communists took to the streets in the Ukraine Friday.
The Republicorp Rally Ah, the stock market - off to another high. While we've been openly skeptical of the market in here (think derivatives explosion/implosion/lockup risk) a few of our Peoplenomics.com subscribers have been doing fine with the strategy outlined a while back involving short term straddles or strangles using close in options, which have started to move nicely as the pressurized market takes flight. --- Still, the news is hardly what I'd call marvelous. Retail sales were down in September and inventories were up - a couple of traditional signs that harder times are ahead. But the TV spokesmodels were quick to give voice to the notion that if we back out gas prices, then everything was good and spending was up. --- Even if you're not a Peoplenomics subscriber, I'll share this interesting contrast: Since the 2000 all time high, on an unadjusted basis the Dow has done a 105.7% retracement while the NASDAQ Compost-it has retraced only 31.1% of it's decline. Worse? On an inflation adjusted basis, the Dow has retraced 63% and the NASDAQ only 23.6%.
Beware of "Pretexting" Events Enjoy the [stock market] rally while you can - as we expect events later this month - perhaps 10-days out - to prick the market back to reality. Congressman Dennis Kucinich says in a letter to supporters this week that "The Bush Administration is preparing for war against Iran, using an almost identical drumbeat of weapons of mass destruction, imminent threat, alleged links to Al Qaeda, and even linking Iran with a future 911. " Our concern is there will be a pretexting event in the US.. --- The web bot project has warned of "encounters with scarcity" for some time now (6-months) and past experience implies that the longer the lead time, the bigger the event when it arrives, so our attention has been held by the commodities this past week - things like corn, which was up 14% from Tuesday lows to the Friday close. And you read about the wheat outlook. We'll be stocking up our freezer with meat and poultry next week, as protein prices will likely go higher - much higher - as price increases work their way through the system.
HRDE and other Notes My current consulting client nodded (electronically) understandingly yesterday when I explained how my time was being severely constrained this week by remodeling. Not just the new office for me (wiring's done except phone lines, I will get some of the sheeting on today), but also the kitchen. What started off there as a new faucet turned into a new sink, which begat a new disposal, which begat a major revision of plumbing to make everything fit, which begat an "As long as you're here, let's take out these two cabinets, and then make me a......."
The home-wise client informed me "This is HRDE: Home repair Domino Effect." Hell, I thought it was just economic suicide, shows you what I know. --- I was half expecting some alert reader to take me to task for failing to use the term trickydickaphobia yesterday. Unlike triskaidekaphobia, trickydickaphobia is the irrational fear of Richard Nixon. Don't worry, if you're under 30, you wouldn't understand. Pass the coffee, wouldja?
The Street Level View You might recall last week on www.urbansurvival.com I ran a short poll asking people whether their local economy had gotten worse, or stayed about the same this year. After spending a few hours trying to convert "feelings" into numbers, I threw up my hands - what matters here are the perceptions and emotions. Things are changing quickly now, and before we get into it, a note from Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com, who reports that homes for sale in the local www.craigslist.org listings were up a whopping 550 in the Seattle area in the last week alone. As someone more clever than me put it: "The only thing standing between us and a crash is the election." This week a sampling of the comments of fellow readers about how the economy "feels" in their area. I think you'll find it interesting and useful. Subscription Information here. Subscriber access here. Subscriber Library.
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New Reader Info Urbansurvival is updated every day, Monday-Saturday, at about 8 AM Texas time, and during the day if events warrant. Weekends, our operation is focused on the in depth reports offered at Peoplenomics, our premium service featuring about 250 weeks of in depth analysis.. Last week's report is always here, and a large archive of past reports, some of which date back to 1997, is located here.
Friday October 13, 2006 Friday the 13th, Part Something Welcome to the day triskaidekaphobics fear, the anniversary of Black Friday, October 13, 1307 when hundreds of Knights Templar were arrested and many tortured into admitting wrong never committed against the church.
While it's maybe not "news" in the pure sense of the word, we nevertheless not the occasion because the Knights Templar were among the key "warrior monks" at the time of the Crusades.
Fast forward to the present day. We find al Qaida's efforts continue to be directed at "Crusaders":
So as the business day begins, we're watching the headlines closely for actions directed against the US by al Qaida and affiliates because an attack on Friday the 13th could certainly be seen to make sense given that from their side the war against the Crusaders is still active. --- The "echo of the Crusades" continues to play out behind the headlines, as it has every day since the first attempt to bring down the World Trade Center - no, not 9/11 but the first attempt back in 1993.
al Qaida and its affiliates seem rather preoccupied with bombs, too. We read just this morning how a 34-year old man in London has pleaded guilty to plotting to bomb at least five key financial centers in the US. The perpetrator? Militant Islamist. --- In a very real sense, the war(s) in the Middle East are viewed as Western Crusades as they're wars with a goal of imposing a different kind of government, one favored by the West, in a part of the world that doesn't have the same ideation of freedom that we (used to?) hold so close. Paradoxically, as we have been trying to force democracy on other lands, our own freedoms have suffered at home with with the theft of rights previously guaranteed by the Constitution.
Like the Crusades, the present-day wars are also without a time table. When the head of the British Army, Sir Richard Dannatt called this week for a five-year timeline for British withdrawal from Iraq, he landed himself squarely in hot water with British hawks. Occasionally, the longer historical roots of the present condition are reflected in headlines such as the British Guardian's headline today "Homeward Christian soldiers."
The war hawks clearly don't want to listen to top military men, although a few admit that being in the midst of an intercine war doesn't make military sense. The promoters of American military dominance of the region got a boost earlier this week when George Bush took the "You stand and fight, or you cut and run" argument to the public. Depending on your bent, "cut and run" is either a fine simplification of the need to control oil or plainly crass militaristic jingoism. --- In some ways, this is just another Friday. Israelis are busy killing Palestinians who are locked up in the Gaza strip, the Hamas leadership responds by saying they won't recognize Israel, the Syrians are bracing for war with Israel, and in Afghanistan (or should we say "Pipelandistand"?) another suicide bombing has killed or injured 10 more humans. Just another day. More coffee.
No matter how I slice it, most of the world's fighting these days seems to distill back to a corporate/religious war. The Western (Christian-Judeo) corporate vision for the Middle East is one thing, although packaging it as "freedom" is may be a stretch, while the Muslim-indigenous regional people's vision is another. In a sense, oil is to the modern crusaders what spices were to the earlier Crusaders - something of value to be brought home from fighting in the Middle East.
But putting events into such stark perspective isn't politically correct. If it were, we would hold corporations and religious leaders accountable for the continuously growing piles of bodies about and ask - even demand - that religious leadership demonstrate their supposedly higher degree of enlightenment by finding non-lethal solutions. But that wouldn't have brought spices or oil now, or new opportunities for banksters and boardrooms would it?
The West is hostage to a view that is profit-oriented; power derives from money, and money flows from corporations. Corporations exist to grow - and without growth profits shrink, and without profits the whole of the Western paradigm is in trouble. When growth doesn't exist to increase standards of living, the excess production must be spent somewhere else, and wars are a fine place to blow up, burn up, and shoot up excess production. I note that as soon as the gunfire stopped Lebanon last month, in came the bankers to make money. It has been almost too pat, too smooth, too orchestrated, at least for my taste.
So there you go - a little historical context for this Friday the 13th, in the Year of Our Oil, 2006.
Shoot the Messenger 1 An ITN reporter was "unlawfully killed" in Iraq by US gunfire in 2003 says a coroner's report out today.
Shoot the Messenger 2 A slain Russian reporter's last piece on torture and the war in Chechnya went to press yesterday.
Then, China, South Korea and so forth can all agree on sanctions against North Korea. Me? I'm waiting for confirmation that it was nuclear. Call me skeptical.
Retail Falls Retail sales are down for September - but nutty as the blow off market is, this may cause a rally..
Where's the Anti-Hillary? Democrats are reportedly searching for someone (anyone?) to run instead of Hillary Clinton for the WH in 2008. I won't go into my usual anti-Hil rant, except to say that America's elected aristocracy hasn't done dick for people who've had their jobs outsource, etc. And one Urban reader suggests we print up bumper stickers that say "No more Republicans, No more Democrats". Bring back the American Whig Party! (And the Constitution, too, as long as we're at it. And let's end deficit spending and the corporate indenture of humans and...well, that's never gonna happen, but still....).
Proud of Hastert George Bush says he's "proud to be standing with Dennis Hastert." Sure - a good foot soldier who does what he's told and buries the embarrassing stuff...sure that makes sense.
Abramoff Grease Money
E. Coli Crap Seems there might be a link between the spinach recall and some cow manure in California.
Thursday October 12, 2006 Balance of Trade Tanks Not that this will come as any surprise to working folks who have been laid off due to outsourcing, but the balance of trade in goods and services hit $69.9 billion in August of this year.
Just another pressure on the Fed not to lower rates when they meet this month - we need to pay foreign folks a good return to keep them bankrolling our "consumer economy>' Ain't this free lunch expensive?
Wheat on Wheaties A drought in Australia has pushed the price of wheat to 10-year highs. Some of my commodity friends (growers up in Washington State, for example) remind us that wheat could pass $6 a bushel. That's a lot of bread for wheat. --- Globally, Ukraine wheat shipments to India have been halted by quotas. --- The USDA has declared 85 counties in the US disaster areas because of the drought here. --- We're starting to watch wheat and the other commodities very carefully because the web bot project says this fall we will see our shortages and "encounters with scarcity" - and depending on what the fine print in today's USDA crop report shows, it may be another pressure on the Fed not to lower rates when they meet later this month. --- Not all commodities are going up, however: Oil has hit fresh lows for the year.
Travel Ban to NK Well, this will certain show them North Koreans: The US is proposing a travel ban on North Korea. Are our guys on crack? Who the hell would ever want to travel to North Korea? No spas there I could talk Elaine into, at least that she's heard of. Has she missed something on the Travel Channel? (Mud baths of Pyong Yang?)
A quick check shows there's no Holiday Inn listed in North Korea. I'm also certain that Southwest and JetBlue don't fly there. Bet this has North Korea just quaking in their sandals. Are we nuts? No, make that "How nuts are we?"
Oh yeah, and there's a report that CBS will be reporting the explosion Sunday was not nuclear.
Two Trains Leave the Station... And they collide in France. Killing 10, injuring several dozen.
Change Channels or Else Gunmen stormed the office of a new Iraqi TV station (killed 11 people). No, we don't know what was on at the time. --- US Army says troops will be in Iraq through 2010. George Bush's logic is that to leave now would be to "cut and run." Aren't emotionally charged linguistics useful?
Philippines Heats Up The Abu Sayyaf/Islamic Jihadists are busy in the Philippines, setting off bombs while the West is warning about travel to southern Mindanao. Darn, there goes this weekend's trip --- Here in the US, Adam Gadahn, an American, may be indicted for treason say reports out of Los Angeles.
Not Terror NY Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle was killed yesterday when his light plane apparently experienced a mechanical problem and crashed into an apartment building in New York.
Highs and Lowes Elaine and I took time off from our usual chores and projects around the ranch yesterday (and for me, a break from client projects) to go venturing for new kitchen parts. Seems a 10-year old kitchen faucet has decided to give up the ghost. We elected to use the occasion to replace the kitchen sink with a deeper one, update the disposal, and install new counter tops. Fine. Nuisance, but fine, has to be dxcone.
Now, because we live in what started life as a "mobile home" (but which most assuredly won't ever move again since our extensive remodeling), we needed a slightly smaller kitchen sink (19" wide by 33 instead of the tradition 22" depth front to back) than is standard. After spending 45-minutes on the phone, I finally located a sink 35-miles away, so off we went. Solved. $99 and a nice drive.
The next problem was a faucet, so we drove to the Lowes on South Broadway in Tyler, Texas. After a quick jog through the display kitchens, we found a four-hole Delta faucet that looked good, so armed with the stock number, off we went to the faucet display to pick it out. And here's where the problems began: It didn't exist, at least on this plane of existence.
Elaine went back 2-3 times to the kitchen department to confirm this detail, or that, and I went back once myself, but it was all to no avail. We couldn't find it to save our souls. Worse, when Elaine approached three employees (who were confabbing in the middle of an aisle), only one of them seemed to pay any mind, offering only a cursory "I'll call someone to help you."
We waited in the faucet/plumbing aisle for 20+ minutes, both pawing through boxes trying to find something we liked, and still no employee showed up offering help. A few wandered by, but no helpers...just people seemingly preoccupied with other tasks. Maybe it was our fault because we happened to be at the store around 12:30 and maybe folks were hungry and off to lunch; I don't know.
I can tell you for certain (after looking at every box in plumbing aisle in section "U") that the store didn't seem to have the faucet that was displayed in the "dream kitchen" area. Dream? Yeah, it must have been a dream, alright.
After standing around the plumbing aisle for what we judged to be long enough, we decided to move on to to the tile department. "Tile counter tops would be nice," offered E. But again, after 15-minutes of standing around, no one came to help. I didn't seem 90 square feet of anything we liked, either, but that's where a human to talk with about our predicament would have been nice.
Then it struck me: Let's try a plastic laminate counters instead, if it's so hard getting help with tile. I wandered off, eventually asking someone in the Kitchen Department. Here, I was delighted to find a fellow who was helpful, knowledgeable, and showed me right to the small selection of laminates the store stocked. Must have been 8-or so colors. He had 40+ years of laminate experience and really knew his stuff. "Ah," I found myself thinking, "Now we're going to get somewhere..."
I went back and fetched Elaine, who was still waiting for signs of human life forms in tile - to no avail. But after a quick glance at the laminate options and she decided no, none of these would do. S
So we left Lowes, our checkbook unscathed thus far, and headed next to Home Depot, where after 30-minutes of looking we decided to throw up our hands and return to Lowes, but this time down in Palestine, TX, 45 miles down Highway 19. If there's an inventory system for the faucets, you could have fooled us. Seemed lots of the display models didn't have boxes on the shelves. And a few visa versa. Or, maybe it's a clever plumbing IQ test and we both flunked.
Eventually, we decided to do something really different with the counter tops: Make our own counters out of cast Envirotex Lite (the stuff they make bar tops out out) and we figured it would be unique, easy to do, and while it would require a little more care than a "here I am, beat me" laminate, it would let us put whatever we wanted under the pour-on clear plastic. At less than $55 a gallon, it will set us back less than the laminate alone would have cost, and that'd be before buying the laminate working tools, which if you haven't been counter top building lately, includes special shears, carbide cutters, glues that will challenge your lungs and liver, and a special countertop bit for the router. I figure $300+ for the 90 square feet of counter. I'll have to fly the gallons in, though, because it's hard to find locally.
We also marveled at the wealth of some of our friends (and a display in the "dream kitchen") where the price for what looked like less than 30 square feet of counter was faux granite was $3,900+, although for this governmental price, there was a fancy enough sink, cast right into the counter.
This morning, after a bit more writing, I will tear out the old sink, disposal, and so forth, and E will get to work on her "whatever's going to be under the casting resin" project. That'll give me time to get back on client tasks while I wait for the Envirotex to be flown in. --- I think the thing that stuck out in my mind was the lack of customer service/interest in what we, the customers, were looking for. With the right help, the first Lowes store could have shaken over $1,000 out of my piggy bank for this project. As is, the Palestine store got $517, not counting the sink we purchased elsewhere, and not counting the cost of the pourable plastic which will be flown in next week. ($250'ish.)
At the Palestine store, a faucet marked on the display at SALE: $108, didn't seem to exist in stock. An employee offered "If it isn't over there, we don't have it in stock." Well, duh. Then there was the person in plumbing who told me the "garbage disposals are over in appliances." But once I got there, an appliance manager assured me they really were in plumbing and was kind enough to walk me over to where they were, inquiring along the way as to who was it that misdirected me. That was good customer service. Rare, but if I want laminate, I know the guy in the Tyler store's kitchen department is 24 karat, and the fellow in Palestine appliances knows where things are in plumbing.
The whole adventure got me to thinking about Big Box store personnel and training. Young people who wouldn't know a zip saw from a pocket knife, because it doesn't plug in to a Nintendo box. Yeah, our youth are pretty much out of touch with hands-on making thing.
Seems (if our experience is typical) that big box stores place a lot of emphasis on doing their tasks (returns, checking, etc.). And I'd bet employees are drug screen and trained on things like "don't make sexual jokes" and whatever. But how to deal with customers? How to solve their problems? What's the difference between 12/2 with ground and 14/2 with ground in the local codes? Where's the faucet that's supposed to be in bin 47-U, and why wasn't it automatically re-ordered by the inventory system? Ha! Perhaps that's a little more than can be gotten onto a training PowerPoint.
This morning, in the cold light of dawn, I worry about high turnover employees, customer service costs, the few really bright spots, the $517 hole in my checking account, and wonder if our young 'uns will ever be able to save the Nation. God help us, the country is lost, if that ever comes down to finding a faucet or tile at Lowes.
Life, Abbrev'd From my little sister who I think was first to use the term "facemail" for in-person meetings at Boeing, comes this new one ending an email:
L/L (Love,/Later)
Wednesday October 11, 2006 America's Enemies: A story about onions (Reader Note: This started off as some notes to write a Peoplenomics report about, but I think it's too important conceptually to be shared with subscribers only - so here's some serious thinking about.) --- One of the difficulties of being an intelligent person (or so I'm told) is that there's no absolute single truth out there. What the truth is for any particular moment depends on who you talk to, what their experiences are and life has taught them - and let's not forget to throw in a large dash of media conditioning, along the way.
Take for example the current naming and name-calling which is going on in America today over who our enemies are. America obviously has enemies but in Internet land, there are lots of sites that will try to convince you that the obvious enemies are not always the real enemies.
A case in point is this week's explosion in North Korea, although we could use the Iraq war or the war in Afghanistan as other explicit examples. In each case, the further we get into analysis, the more likely we are to become dazed/confused/sidetracked in our quest for the ultimate truthful answer to the question "Who is America's enemy?"
One of the outcomes of a good education is that in business school, folks spend a lot of time sorting out the answer to the question is there a "single best way" - and whether that means a single best way to sell a product, or a single best way to look at how to run a company, it all boils down to a ton of research and writing many long papers which explore then explain this perspective or that while searching for the "single best way.".
My quest to find America's enemies seems to keep coming up with something of a design pattern that seems to repeat as a logical framework whenever we encounter "enemies." And, the design pattern can be illustrated easily enough by looking at our "enemy of the moment" as the outer layer of a large complex onion, generated by the chaotic complex system that is humans on earth.
Let's consider, for a moment a coming high risk period for another attack on America - which we could speculate that we're entering into right now because elections are less than a month away.
One of America's obvious and major enemies is militant Islamists and their leader Osama bin Laden. He's the obvious (media) "enemy of the moment" - and he has recently put America on notice that he is planning something more spectacular than 9/11 in the very near future, if I read the translations correctly. Top layer of the onion.
But it doesn't take much research before we discover, reading up on bin Laden's background, that he was actually an agent of US interests, back when the former Soviet Union (FSU) was busy trying to invade and conquer Afghanistan (something that still hasn't been accomplished by the West, either). A Wikipedia quote on point:
Thus we see the "second layer" of the onion.
Moving on to our third layer of the onion, we find a whole host of competing organizations which have tried to influence America's external policies in the Middle East (and elsewhere). We can easily envision that there's a collision of interests, that has evolved internal specialists at the State Department and diverse private "research" groups like the neocon's Project for a New American Century [PNAC] or the more moderate Cato Institute, to name just two) resulting in sudden changes in relationships folks like bin Laden, who would then turn (or are turned) against us.
Along the way, of course, and trying to influence decision-making we have a host of interests in conflict leading to things like the Abramoff bribery scandal which comes as no surprise to the informed news reader - it's an almost predictable outcome of ideological conflict over socioeconomic agendas. The continuing "outings" in the Foley scandal keep having tie-backs to the Abramoff period, including the resignation last week of a key aid to Karl Rove. The progression of the Abramoff cum Foley scandal is clearly headed for the White House, but whether it happens before Election Day is something to keep in mind in a few moments.
One could argue that
creation of our enemies is at times intentional by third layer
players - evidence could be argued either way. But if it is,
we then drop down into the fourth layer of the onion to see who
would want to create/control/dominate a particular piece of real
estate for a particular outcome. That brings us to the "bankers behind the curtain" and in this case, as discussed in a New Humanist article, we need only look to the banker/energy complex to find motivation: The desire to control oil and gas pipelines. And not just in Afghanistan. We have the same interests pushing for control of resources in Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and just about anywhere else with good production potential.
If you have time, read William Engdahl's backgrounder on how the internal and East/West politics of international oil have worked out in the FSU - again, more layers of the onion revealed.
The last layer down, at least insofar as bin Laden and the upcoming danger period before elections is the unnamed bankers, corporate boards of directors, and the other money players who believe they have "skin in the game" and that they are somehow above the common citizenry (they are, at least financially) and therefore somehow empowered to wield their big sticks and deep pockets through murky channels to influence the influencers. --- Another operation of our onion metaphor could be applied to North Korea's explosion last weekend of what is being discussed as a small nuclear weapon. Some speculation I've heard is that the reason the bomb test was so small was that it was a neutron bomb test - and thus the size didn't matter as much as the technology. On the other side, some still think it was a dud.
Really, it doesn't matter. This morning the Australian press is all atwitter with speculation that a second North Korea Bomb blast could come soon. --- The parallel to keep in mind, is that North Korea, like bin Laden, is another "outer layer of the onion" enemy of America.
Just as the US at the second layer of bin Laden created its enemy (see the intelligence term "blowback"), I'd argue that North Korea was essentially a foreign policy creation of Mainland China decades back. Times have changed, but North Korea hasn't. Thus, while we read that China may not be happy with North Korea, the threat of Prong Yang is outward directed (e.g. West) so China has no incentive to really step in and do much except act upset. Which they're doing in a predictable way.
The third layer of the North Korea onion slice is to look at how China was pursuing a policy of hegemony - a term they defined in foreign policy circles a few decades back. One could say that the predecessors to the National People's Congress created North Korea, and one more layer down, it was perhaps largely at the urging of Mao Tse Dung.
Today, we read how Japan was shaken by a quake, which some thought at first was that rumored second North Korean nuke going off. Such are jitters in the modern world. --- The definition of America's enemies, as I've tried to show, depends on what layer of the onion you want to talk about. Is Osama bin Laden a threat? Why, hell yes. But a few layers down, so are banksters and corporate chieftains who write checks to influence policy, and give to both sides in political campaigns.
While the US continues fighting the war in Iraq, there's a report out today showing that 655,000 Iraqis have died in the righting so far. It's not exactly the kind of running up to Americans to "thank us for liberation" that we were led to expect. At some point, the American/Western efforts to forcibly install our kind of government will cost more lives than Saddam Hussein is charged with ending at his trial. --- In the coming few weeks, I fear for an attack on America by her enemies - all of them. The Nightmare Scenario would go something like: Disclosure that the Abramoff cum Foley cum whoever's next runs to the heart of the White House or to a key part of the US financial/monetary institutions.
At such a point, a lot of people several layers down in the onion would have a major common incentive to let America's enemies attack us - because it might save their political or corporate careers. America's enemies have set the stage on both sides. What we have been promised is the Patriot Act, along with "signing statements" are no doubt a threat to our freedoms, but no less a clear and present danger than the foreign forces who are are avowed enemies and who would kill us as "infidels." --- America has suffered through several very Dark Hours in her past: The depths of the Civil War and the bleak days of 1943 when it looked like Germany might win WWII come immediately to mind. But if you ask most people, they don't seem to see the threats to America today. They don't understand that we have lots of enemies who would love to "get us". And they don't understand that in a twinkling of an eye, sea level could pop up 200+ feet with glaciers sliding off land in Greenland and the Antarctic into the oceans due to global warming.
A few of us see it, though: We love and support the Constitution, hold to the Framer's ideals, and put something away for rainy days. We don't use credit except sparingly, and we try to hang around folks who'd get into heaven - and shun those who talk about "poppin a cap in yo ass" as not being the kind of folks we'd like to share earth's bounty with.
But we come up on a very delicate window late this month just prior to the elections - and America's enemies both internal and foreign might gang up to attempt the greatest theft in history. I'm not talking just about stealing what's left of our pension funds - that's been going on for years. I'm talking about the American ideals and America's freedom.
If, God forbid, anything happens, remember this short course in onions and complex systems.
OPEC Output Cut OPEC is cutting production and prices are up a bit this morning. This is a sure sign that either a) they're running out of oil to pump at high rates, b) they want to get all the money they can for what oil is left or c) they see a US recession (worse?) coming. My vote? d) all of the above.
Georgia Simmers France is now starting to sound the same alarm we've been sounding for several weeks - namely than any out and out shooting in Georgia would likely spread to the whole region. Think Balkanization of Eastern Europe - which fits with Robert Kaplan's 1994 vision of "The Coming Anarchy" almost too neatly.
Patching Things Up Microsoft is out with a bunch of new software patches this week. They're for the OS, Word, and PowerPoint.
Human Capital 60 Shell workers are being held hostage in Nigeria.
Tuesday October 10, 2006 The Bomb that Bombed? The big discussion this morning in scientific circles seems to be centered on the size of the North Korean explosion this week. Was it nuclear? Was it a dud? There are some who figure that yes, size matters, and there's not a lot of evidence that North Korea's bomb was large enough. If that's reassuring, go back to your game of DEFCON (where everybody dies) --- The policy question which faces the White House is what to do? Alternatives include a naval blockade, but with supplies easily brought in from China, we're scratching our heads wondering.
Martial Law Continued While the new government of Thailand was quick to promise the removal of martial law as quickly as possible, it isn't happening - yet.
NATO's Move East With NATO moving in to take over operations in Afghanistan last week, and now a British general in charge of NATO forces moving visiting Pakistan, Strategy Page headlines "NATO Moves East". Clearly, there's not much "defending" to be done in the western European area, so in order to keep busy. You can read the NATO Charter yourself but it's pretty open-ended except for the mutual self defense of Europe in Article 5.
"Stick It Commie" That's a genuine welcome for Venezuela's Hugo Chavez visiting first people of Alaska. More background on the independent minded folks of Alaska in this AP report.
The "Other" New Orleans I'm sure if you have been watching TV lately, you've seen the carefully crafted stories about New Orleans and how people there are slowly getting things back to "normal" after last year's disasters. Well, that's the image. Now some gritty reality. Last night a National Guard soldier on patrol in the Big Easy shot and killed a man. Th
Because UrbanSurvival readers are everywhere, we often get emails from readers with relatives in strange places which give us a much different take on events than the MSM talks about. For example:
No, not by a long shot - which is why we offer it as a "reality check" here.
Where are the Shortages? Several people have asked "Where are the shortages the web bots predicted for around this time period?" Well, assuming you've missed our ongoing coverage of the shortage of ammunition, and assuming you slept through the recall of spinach in nine states, perhaps we should have a salad and talk about it. Ooops! Shortage there, too. More to come - don't be getting impatient, as they will be here soon enough say the time monks.
Job Outlook: Welding I'm going to let you in on a little personal secret: There are some kinds of "work" that aren't really work at all. It's all according to how you view the task at hand.
Just yesterday, as I was putting in the last of 42 outlets (individual plug count) in my new office, I was thinking "You know, wiring is pretty boring compared to framing..." Pappy used to tell me the most rewarding part of home building was framing and roofing "because you can see the building take shape before your eyes." Yup, it's a kind of magic than only craftsmen appreicate.
To my way of thinking, welding is very similar. You can take a couple of pieces of "stuff" and weld it into something useful. Where's this going? I want to draw your attention to the American Welding Society's launch of a training program to deal with a shortage of welders in America.
I love welding...it's in the same class of "work" as framing. Around the ranch, I don't do too much welding, not enough come to think of it, although our little Lincoln SP-135 will do 1/4" plate with a single pass, and thicker on multiple passes. But there's a joy to welding that rivals framing (or tracking down an elusive component level failure in a piece of electronics) that's hard to beat.
In today's uncertain world, a person should - in my book - have three to six jobs that they can do at the journeyman level. If you invest in multiple skills, your odds of ever being totally unemployed drop dramatically. If you have a youngster (or are under 65 yourself) picking up a new trade every 10-years or less seems like one of the best investment strategies you can make.
YouTube An echo of the dotcom era, or a sound investment by Google? You make the call.
Monday October 9, 2006 North Korea's Bomb Test We told you last week that this would likely happen - and sure enough it did: North Korea claims that it has detonated its first atomic device underground - and they further advance the idea that no radiation has been released. The Russians are confirming the test. Already - and not unexpectedly - there are calls for the UN to conduct an "investigation." Still, there are some skeptics wondering if this was a fake test. --- The US had warned of unspecified actions in the event of such a test, but clearly the Bush administration is now in a very difficult position, having talked tough prior to the event, but with limited military options available because of the massive commitments of our forces to the hot zones of Afghanistan, Iraq, and others. Peter Alford's analysis piece in The Australian lays out some of the possible consequences. Or, as the Asia Sentinel puts it in sucinct headline form: "And Now What?"
Economics Prize Columbia University's Edmund Phelps has won the Nobel Prize for Economics today. His insight? Trade offs between short and long term policy impacts. "Phelps also pioneered the analysis of the importance of human capital, or workers themselves, for the diffusion of new technology and growth in the business and corporate world, the academy said in its citation."
Navy Bounces Winner Lt. Commander Charles Swift has been passed over for promotion. Why? Ah...therein lies the tale: Swift was the one who successfully defended Osama bin Laden's driver in a US Supreme Court challenge. As we it, this is right out there at the front lines of defending freedom. What Swift did was force the administration to uphold the laws of the land - and for that, a patriotic American is being bounced from the Navy under its up or out policies. --- The spinmeisters would have you believe that if you don't swallow the whole rotten fish being proffered by the administration, you're somehow supporting terrorism. That's backasswards. If we don't support our Constitution and its even application, then we are no better than our enemies. The "you're for Bush or you're against America" argument is a clever twist of logic: It's OK to disagree with an "elected" official while still supporting the laws of this Great Nation. Unless, you're a Navy lawyer who dared stand up for our Laws. (Which, I might add, were never designed to be modified in any way shape or form by 'signing statements." )
Backing Hastert Dennis Hastert is calling in favors to keep his hands on power. This as republicorps continue to circle their wagons in the wake of the CONgressional page scandal. I'm expecting more "outing" this week.
Buying Elections Political manipulation or just a "coincidence"? Gas prices continue to fall as we get closer to the election. Why, next thing you know, you'll forget about debasing the money, extending tours of our forces, crooked lobbyists buying influence and voting machine backdoors. Hell yes, free gas by election day might accomplish that. For the terminally stoopid, maybe.
Ship Naming George Bush I now has his own ship named after him - CVN 77, the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been launched. Gee, that's one upping Condi Rice's Chevron tanker on a gross tonnage basis.... Oil, did someone say oil?
Oil Cuts OPEC has agreed to cut production by 1-million barrels a day. All this will take time to work through the supply chain, so no, this won't impact gas prices until after the "elections". --- Why we don't call them "auctions" is not clear to me. It's all about fund raising for a marketing project where, like cereal, there's more work on the box than what's in it. Ditto the auction - I mean "election" process. More packaging than substance in 99% of candidates.
Goodbye Constitution, Continued We read with some concern that there is a bill in CONgress which would remove the current limit on two presidential terms. While this would require an Amendment to the Constitution, there are already folks pointing to the attempt with concern that a single party could essentially hijack the two-party system. I got news for you (and this only takes half the first cup of coffee to figure out), it already has been hijacked. Take the current batch of pretenders in Washington and look at how lobbyists buy and sell them now. Who are we kidding? --- Taking the Independent view of things, shunning the corporate media pabulum, we are pleased to note that there is a ground swell of patriotism still burning here in the USA. Particularly good, I think, have been the recent articles by Back Woods Home's John Silveira. His "Land of the Unfree" is a good read, as he notes we have more people in prisons than any other country in the world including Russia, China, Cuba, Zimbabwe and Vietnam. --- Equally important is the battle in Texas' 28th Congressional district where the Constitution Party has fielded Ron Avery's attempt. ""The fundamentals of property govern every aspect of government, and we’ve long abandoned those principles," Avery said. "That’s why we’re in trouble in almost every aspect of government." Still, I rate Avery's odds of winning as slim and none. Not that I wouldn't vote for him, but the corporate fix is in and the big money is so stacked against truly independent thinkers running for office, that it's farcical. --- Americans have volunteered to give up control of their government - and by sitting home watching TV exit polls, waiting for the outcome bought and paid for by corporations, Americans seem satisfied with their abdication of power. Meantime in Canada, there's discussion about a $1-million dollar lottery to entice people to vote in a municipal election. Maybe I'm amazed. Then again, maybe not.
Cleaning Up France No, this is not likely a web bot hit, but the "contaminated air" of France will be a bit cleaner with a new smoking ban going into effect.
Georgia On My Mind I keep watching the situation grow - seems daily - in eastern European Georgia. You may remember that last week Russia started taking the names of Georgian students in school in Russia. Now, in the escalating tit-for-tat, the Georgians are thinking about revoking landing rights for Russian planes. Meantime, the deportations and evacuations continue. When bullets start to fly, don't say you didn't know this one was coming...
Facelift You might want to check out Bloomberg this morning. They have done a remake of their color scheme and backgrounds and it looks more contemporary - less "flat" than before.
Vista RC2 Microsoft is out with Vista RC2 for a few folks. Expect public release in retail boxes in January. Do you need to upgrade from XP? I'm debating - and waiting to see if there's anything new that won't run on XP in the next version of Office 2007 which has been unveiled in India! Sounds like India is getting it before I can get it at the local office supply. What does that tell you? ---
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