Fire or Ice?

Robert Felix's landmark book "Not by Fire but by Ice" was way ahead of its time in raising questions about global warming.  Popularly, global warming has been laid at the feet of regular-everyday-humans as a consequence of our highly consumptive lifestyle.  While that's no doubt true - at least in some measure - there's a lot of science coming out suggesting that the macro forces of the Universe are playing a much heavier hand than us wimpy humans.

For example, a Russian scientist is now predicting a global cooling to come, perhaps of a scale to echo the 16th century's "Little Ice Age" period when the Baltic Sea froze so hard people took coaches instead of boats to cross it. Adding to the complex soup of counter-intuitive "facts" on the subject is a British research group that claims warmer winters and cooler summers cause glaciers, at least in the Himalayas, to grow.

My own thinking  on the subject had two points.  First, until we get a little further into the new solar cycle, the beginning of which was marked by a "reverse sunspot" a couple of weeks ago, and make temperature measurements for a few more years, I'm inclined to go with the idea that there may be a lagging temperature correlation between solar cycles and actual heat output by the sun.  Sort of what the Russian scientists are observing and reporting now.  That would explain why there have been observable changes on some of our neighboring planets, and could account for 90% - or more - of the recent "global warming."

Looking ahead, however, a global cooling period could be a massive problem on two fronts.  First,. carbon dioxide levels (CO₂₎ are at their highest levels in 650,000 years. There's some speculation among my friends that if a planet experiences a "little ice age" (what the Russians suggest) and couple that with record  CO₂ levels, you could set up for a "snap freeze" into a full blown ice age.  Which might work out along the lines of Whitley Strieber book and movie, "The Day After Tomorrow."

Secondly, energy consumption would go through the roof in any "little ice age scenario" because of vastly expanded heating requirements globally.

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To be sure, there's damned little sign of sudden cooling here at the ranch, though. Since July 1st, we've had 22 days of 100 degrees or more and only enough rain to tease the dust a bit. Our normally year round creek is just wet mud these days, but the issue is less worrisome for us than say the cities of North Texas where aquifer levels are getting a serious look.

You've no doubt heard the term "flash flood" (as in Phoenix and Scottsdale this week), but here's a new one from the Virginia Times-Dispatch: a "flash drought." 

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Two thinking points strike me, halfway through the first cup of coffee today:  One is that global temperature is a massively important financial indicator.  Not just because genuine - and decades persistent - global warming would cause us to rethink living in East Texas, and move Juneau up our list of potential homestead sites.  The real impact would likely be on global energy use.  Humans seem to operate best in the 60-80 degree range, and they use up lots of energy once out of their comfort zone.  I've looked, but haven't found a "global degrees heating/cooling day" number reported anywhere, but that would be interesting.

The other thing that becomes obvious is that discussion of global warming/global cooling has allowed me to conveniently categorize folks I deal with in one of three ways.

• Linear people:  These are people who expect the current trend to continue in a straight line into the foreseeable future. If the average local temperature is up one degree this year, they will see it up another degree next year, and then the year after.  Like a frog slowly brought up to boiling in a pot, these people are slowly getting uncomfortable with global warming, but denial pushes the problem out another year or several as events continue to be bearable with minimal pain.

• Exponential people: These are the doomsayers who figure that if global warming saw a half a degree last year, and one degree this year, next year will surely bring a 2 degree rise and 4 degrees (or six!) the year after that. These folks are very useful to sample at the start of a trend change, but if the trend has peaked, they can easily be on the wrong side of the curve. Until they flip to "global cooling" - in which case they will again be right early on. (Exponential people are "trouble seekers" and the very best friends to see what's ahead. Extremely important at trend change times.)

• Cycle people:  These folks (and I confess to being one of them) who take the whole of the Universe, including global warming, politics, human relations, tides and what have you, as being a series of cycles.  Sometimes things heat up, sometimes things cool down. We "cycle folks" tend to sample exponential and linear people to try and discern where we are in the big cycle view. 

Cyclicity I think is the key. It's egotistical as hell for humans to take all the credit for global warming.  Especially when, since 2003, NASA has been pointing at Mars and it's receding southern polar ice cap. Being a planet, powered by the same Sun, it seems reasonable to me that the same macro forces impacting Mars might have something to do with our ice cap conditions.

The problem for the cycle people (and I'm in that group) is what happens between now and when any cooling shows up?  The most recent estimates from the US Geological survey suggest that melts of just the glaciers in the Antarctic would raise sea levels globally by 73 meters.  Throw in Greenland and other glaciers and you'll want to think about swimming lessons, for sure.

Can you imagine it?  Image sea level coming up 237 feet? Virtually none of the world's coastal plains would support humans.  No oil refineries would be left to speak of, and a few billion dead from famine would result, almost as a certainty. That puts a finite limit of some x number of years on how long before cooling can show up and rescue humans from starvation/drowning.

So for what it's worth, I'm closely watching the "linear people" and the "exponential people" plus the latest reports from the Weather Service and our own digital thermometers here at the ranch, trying to figure out how the "cycle flip" will work out. Now that the solar cycle has flipped, maybe things will stabilize.

One thing's clear:  If the flip into some cooling doesn't get here soon enough, billions drown and starve.  Here at the ranch, we get near waterfront property in the deal due to some propitious long-range planning. It's not like the sea level threat is a secret. 

On the other hand, if cooling in a big way gets here instantly, global oil consumption goes heavenward, and that will pressure corporate/religious resource wars at ever-increasing levels of violence.

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Normally, I'd save such musing for subscribers to our www.peoplenomics.com weekly in depth service.  But not this weekend.  It's already 80-degrees and 80% humidity and almost too hot at 8 AM to go outside and do any real work.

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The other headlines of this morning seem to revolve around the "same old stuff" Wars, religions, real or imagined WOT, and the rest.

Boring stuff that will still, sadly, be there for us to rip into again on Monday morning.

This Bugs Us

One story not to wait until Monday involves the death of two folks who were reportedly looking into NSA cell phone bugging.  Moral?  Try not to step on the tail of the Beast.

Peoplenomics This Week:

A New Trading System

Yep.  Two things have come together this week to push me into inventing a trading system.  One of the drivers was a friend of mine who said "I know you don't give financial advice, but let me know when you would buy gold?"  Fair enough.  (last Friday) After all, I have been peering at the charts and such for a long time and I have noticed something which is very interesting down in the supporting tables for the Global Index.   "And what, pray tell, oh odd-thinking one, is that?" Better than tell you, I'll show you, complete with the backtest data supporting the notion that there may be a tradable correlation between our Global Index and the price of gold.  So much, so in fact, that I may get back into trading myself.  Not a promise, but it's certainly something worth thinking about.  When I show you the numbers and the back test, you'll understand why.

More for Subscribers   or   Click here for subscription info - it's just $30 a year.

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By the way, if you're wondering if Peoplenomics is worth it, here's a totally unsolicited endorsement from a current subscriber who just renewed:

"I am renewing through Paypal.

Your paid site is like a multi megawatt laser cutting thru the fog of disinformation provided by the traditional media we are forced to wade through.

You handled the hack of your server like the professional you are.

The infantile PUKES who did it appear to have timed the attempt to get you to meltdown at a time of high personal stress.

They failed miserably.

Charge more, you deserve it."

I couldn't have written one that good if I tried.  Thank you.  The reason I keep the subscription price so low is that I'm trying to share as widely as possible the long wave economics perspective.  Next week's report has the working title "Battling Bacteria" and is focused on various scenarios as life on earth (the BIG Petri dish) reach the limits of food and resource availability.

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Market Prediction: One sidelight to the trading system: It suggests a 1.5-3% drop in the S&P between now and 2-weeks out.  We'll see.

"Only" 5,000 Readers Lost

If you operate a web service, you can get some idea of how important "up time" is by looking at how long a full recovery of site traffic takes.  Once the site came back up (firmly) last week, we popped back up to 20,512 page views on Thursday, which is some ways down from our usual 25,000+ page views. 

To remedy that, please send everyone you know a note and tell them that yes, www.urbansurvival.com is back up, script kiddies of some world-of-warcraft group notwithstanding.  If you have Outlook/Outlook Express, just click here.

Live Well, Cheaply

At the http://www.peoplenomics.com bookstore, "How to live on $10,000 a year or less continues to sell briskly.  Several other good reads there, including my personal favorite, the "Best Book EVER About Sales" which teaches a tremendous amount about how salespersons work.  If you've ever wonder "How does "sales" work, click here are read the table of contents. Several sales managers report good success using the ebook as a training tool for new sales people who "don't get it."  This lays it all out.

Friday August 25, 2006

Good Bye Housing Bubble

Elaine just spent 3-weeks up in the Seattle area helping one of her sons getting his condo ready to sell while there's still time to get "while the gettin's good."  But that time may be quickly ending.  Let me take you back to July or August of 2005 when E & I, the son with condo, and Real Estate doomster Jas Jain had lunch one weekend morning in Burbank.

Jas' advice at that time was clearly articulated.  He basically told Elaine's son "Get out of your condo right now - while it's at the top!"  So, the son has been getting the condo ready for sale ever since.  And, Jas keeps sending along the charts that make the case that the time to get out of owned housing in bubbling markets was not yesterday, but months ago.

You may recall that Jas and I had a small wager, a bottle of fine ($20 max) wine bet on our difference of opinion on the degree to which inflation would show up.  I thought it would have been stronger (my bet was for 6.5% inflation first) while Jas' view was that no, don't try to 'catch falling knives."  Get ready for deflation now.  He also sent along a note on gasoline prices which fit into the evolving changed state of affairs:

"Wholesale Gasoline Price Down 50c a Gallon "

This was reported on CNBC and it will filter into the consumer gasoline purchases in the coming weeks. IMO, this is being driven by the weakening demand that is being foreseen as a result of the economy weakening and then slipping and sliding into a recession later this year.

This is going to do a major damage to the headline CPI YoY rate. I can already see poor inflationists crying foul about the govt. data when the September and October CPI data are released. Inflation peaks during a recession and recession is coming sooner than most expect.

“Enjoy” the inflation while it lasts. All the recent rent increases will become thing of the past in 2007.

On this last, Jas and I are (sadly) in agreement.  The odds against inflation in 2007 seem to be growing by the day, hidden in no small measure by the "core rate" mantra that emphasizes inflation without regard to two of its largest factors, food and energy.

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It's not like Elaine's son is the only one grappling with the leftovers of the Greenspan pimped Housing Bubble.  We read that Gen Bernanke at Jackson Hole today is now trying to figure out how to gracefully skate from the debts-coming-due for mal-investment before his time.

I expect that later today the Fed's PR department will release the text of whatever Bernanke says and rest assured, I'll post it right away because it may give some indication how the Fed will react now that sleight of hand tricks to prop things up are in seemingly short supply.

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One of the surprises of the Housing Precipice has been that the U.S. dollar has remained as strong as it has.  For example, a Middle East oriented publication headlines that "Bernanke Not Likely to Cause Ripples in the US Dollar." And, in the same vein, MarketWatch sees the "Dollar little changed after weak housing data." 

I wouldn't be looking for a huge turn in the dollar in a few days, but over the longer term, consider the picture ahead for investors, especially of the foreign ilk so anxious to buy up dollar-denominated securities such as home mortgages which are bound up in parcels and sold off like bonds.

Given a severe housing price recession, and numbers of anywhere from a 20% drop to a 60% (and more) drop have been mentioned by people who know what serious "deflation" means, think about the underlying "bond" equivalent value of a stack of mortgages could do.  First, the investor would find the purchasing power of the "bond" would drop substantially. And, making matters worse, the implied default rate assumed in pricing such units would likely advance far out of bounds. In short, such paper assets would quickly become less attractive than other investment alternatives. Like precious metals.

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One of these alternatives is gold.  Bloomberg notes that Gold has been trading near a 3-day low on signs of a slow US economy, which is all fine and true. But unlike collateralized mortgages and other pseudo-bonds, you can't just print up more gold.  So if the you-know-what hits the fan, even though gold may actually decline, it should increase in terms of relative purchasing power.

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Consider a massive 50% collapse of housing prices.  Not saying that it will happen (2008 will tell), but it's one of those "out there as a possibility" things to ponder.  What do I think gold would do?  Well, if the nation were locked in a massive deflation, paper assets of all kinds would be questioned.  But what about the metals?  I think there would be a decline in gold pricing, of perhaps 20%, but look what happens to gold's purchasing power relative to paper.  On the one hand, paper would drop 50% and with it, over time, most consumer goods would fall by the same amount - that's deflation for you. And then government would likely start acquiring metals again.  Hence, gold and silver demand.

But regardless of government solutions, gold, falling less rapidly, seems likely to buy more of the falling price goods.

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Our personal account is balanced with more than ample gold/silver/cash to zero out the small mortgage we have on our latest land acquisition, with enough left over to live passably for several years. There's no bank card debt.

My strong advice to anyone interested in getting ahead of the curve is to a) consider what happens if housing prices go through the floor and b) plan some way to get enough assets together so that you own everything in your life outright.  In other words, to get debt free.

Some day, that absence of debt might just mean the difference between being a free person and going into some forced labor program to work on your share of renounced debts. Yeah, I know that sounds horribly alarmist but I think the prototype for criminalization of debt is already in place; think deadbeat dad laws and the recent tightening of bankruptcy laws.

What's more, the IRS move this week to hire private debt collectors is yet another move to tighten the yoke of debt on the shoulders of free Americans.  It will soon be possible for a private debt collection firm to come after you on an IRS debt which may, or may not, be valid.

This weekend, while you're making plans for Labor Day weekend, think about the criminalization of debt default and how a modern system of  indentured servitude it would serve both corporate and government (corpgov) interests.  Why it's a corpgov Nirvana: plenty of labor for public works, low cost labor for corporate work camps (not just in the clothing world!) and best of all, lot's of humans assignable to military tasks.

Not to be excessively alarmed, but remember, this recession is expected to be longer and nastier than most anticipate say several analysts.

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Jas better be thinking what kind of $20 bottle of wine he wants.  I'm saving up for it.

War Talk

Not surprised by this: Syria may try to retake the Golan Heights says the Israeli Defense Forces. I think this was said elsewhere earlier this week, too.

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Middle East media are reporting a poll that says the Israeli public is in a three-way split over whether the government should resign over the Lebanon microwar.

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The real change in the world's geopolitical balance has come as Saudi Arabia is no longer the world's largest oil producer, having been overtaken by Russia.  And that, figures the Asia Times online edition, sets up a change in how the global energy cartel operates.

Bomb Our Own Nuke Plant?

The Florida Sun-Sentinel digs up this juicy bit:  One of the Iranian nuclear facilities which poses some risk to the West was built by (tah-dah) the US!  Gee, how the world has changed in 40-years.

Real Nuke Dangers

So, how many nukes does North Korea have?  Figure one or two says the South Korean defense chief.

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Mindless hype: While the US media is getting itself tranced into govspeak over the dangers of North Korea having nukes (and they are crazy), what the mainstream fails to note is that the danger to the whole of the world from an underground blast would be near zero.  On the other hand, the use of depleted uranium (DU) shells by Bush I and Bush II in Iraq is making one hell of a global mess of the environment and mainstream continues to saw zzz's on this one.  'Mazing, huh?

Fish Oiled

Mess in the Philippines - a national calamity says president Arroyo of the huge oil spill off the Guimara Island, Philippines, August 11th.

Some "Terror"

The 12 "terror suspects" which forced the return of a jet to Amsterdam this week, under the watchful guns of two F-16's have now been released.  More interesting?  The Dutch apologize to India.

Igor's Jitters

Several web bot subscribers have asked me for an interpretation of the "Heads Up" warning note about the August 26-28th period sent out by www.halfpasthuman.com about the west/central part of CONUS. Either Igor's been getting too much caffeine, or something like a violent earthquake with Katrina-like screw-ups and fallout would fit.  But then again, so would a big meteor impact, so who knows? The warning is what it is.  Chief time monk Cliff' is a lot more stoic muttering "Whump watch" and pointing up.

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The idea of a big earthquake keeps popping to my mind because of the odd behavior of our year-round creek.  If you're a Peoplenomics.com subscriber, I mentioned this two weeks ago. This is the creek that chooses to run only at certain times of the day - a phenomena that's really got me perplexed.  I keep stomping my feet over on the lower 16 acres and screaming to no avail (other than disturb the neighbor's goats) "What the hell is going on down there?  Who's turning the creek on and off?"

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Far out?  Yup...Here's the background story on the creek - from the www.peoplenomics.com site (August 13th edition):

The Shallow Creek Mystery

One of my other projects has been putting in a culvert in our mostly year-round creek. That's so I can get to the far side of the property (about 8 acres of it) that is on the far side of the creek without getting the tractor all muddy or driving on a semi-paved road. (Hard on tires)

While working on the creek one morning last week (around Aug 6) I noticed that the water had stopped running. Mind you, this was at 6:45 AM last Sunday. I took a picture of it, just to be sure of what I was seeing. Yup, dry creek bed with no water:

See? Mud, right? Barely damp mud, at that.

OK, about 2-hours later, (9 AM) almost magically, the water started to flow again! Check this out!

I'm not sure just just what gives here. Yes, this part of East Texas is in a drought. Year to date precipitation is running about 17.8" while the normal for this time of year is 25.9" That's a lot of missing water.

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With Igor's jitters and this oddly behaving creek, I tend to shade toward earthquake/ground shift concerns. Due to my creek's odd behavior a few weeks back. But why the "Up" references?  What's "Up" with that?

Thursday August 24, 2006

Move over Saudis

Russia Now World's #1 Oil Producer

Here's a shocker to get your heart ticking a little faster this morning: Russia according to OPEC figures has now overtaken Saudi Arabia in oil production to make them the Number One producer in the world! There are several aspects to this.  First, as we've written about many times, "oil" coming out of Saudi is more and more being impacted by excessive water injection.  In fact, one oilman is reported to have called Saudi well output little more than "oil-flavored brine" with water cut in some field more than 90%. (That's 1 part oil, 9 parts injected salt water if you're not familiar with the technology.)  [Click here for a short course on water injection.]

The power of Russian oil is not universally apparent yet but it is certainly evident that Vladimir Putin has a growing number of policy options to consider based on Russia's growing oil wealth. 

One of these is whether to send Russian peacekeepers to Lebanon.  But, as you might expect, as Vlad's getting a little money in the bank, and is the world's new Big Cheese in oil, Western groups are trying to paint Putin as trying to return Russia to a police state.  Given the anti-Constitutional bent of the US power structure lately, this last is a bit rich, I'd say...

The other thing all this Russian oil wealth has done is allowed Russia to pay off its previous debts to the West and now the country faces the prospect of a rising currency valuation, something leadership says they want to control.

And with all that oil, you know the West is certainly eyeing Russia resources fondly - which perhaps explains why Russia is making a big to-do over the successes they've had in the past few days firing off some of their cruise missiles. Sort of a "poison pill" reminder to the West.

I expect that the Ukraine will evolve into the center of a tipping point in East/West relations as a result.  On the one hand, Russia's Prime Minister says Ukraine won't siphon off Russian gas this winter,  The US meantime is trying to buy some good will from Ukraine by throwing Agency for International Development money at it to help gain energy independence.

And, oh yes, did I mention Shell just announced a gas deal in Ukraine?

The Weeks Before War?

Although it's not a surprise, it's at least now somewhat formal that the US has not found the latest "offer" from Iran on nuclear development to be satisfactory.  Surprise.  Not. 

This poses some interesting timing problems for the BCRN cartel (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/neocons). For one thing, depending on who you listen to, there has been an active discussion within the White House over whether the US could engage in "first use" of a nuclear weapon, such as a "bunker buster" to get at underground Iranian resources.  The idea floated around non-US media so far is that Joint Chiefs Chairman Pace has so far managed to get the idea nixed.

If that were the end of the discussion, fine. But, it's not. Since Israel's invasion of Lebanon, the talk has started up again - that first use of nukes is back on the front burner. One reason may be that Israel, which had enjoyed something of a reputation as "invincible" was shown in the recent fighting to have vulnerabilities. And so, Israel has started trying to lay groundwork for talks with Syria.

Looking at the web bot forecasts, we don't expect to see a big outburst of shelling the evening of August 31st when the transition of the GlobalPop entity to revolution/rebellion begins.  Still, it should be apparent by the second or third week of September that something has changed and the world is gonig down a slippery slope.

Adding to the debate, a CONgressional report citing Iran as a growing danger. And let's not forget those republicorps running for for the trough again. Republicorp staff want scarier intel - to stampede thoughtless voters in the elections which are coming on fast.

Flashpoint Mexico

Another global flashpoint continues to be Mexico.  The recent elections dispute is anything but settled and, as John Ross writes in CounterPunch, the country is nearing the "combustion point."

While the strikes, demonstrations, and civil disobedience continue, especially in Oaxaca, the Western corporate media seem to be focuses on a flood of "good news" stories which make Mexico seem "normal."  The list is impressive, too:

• Mexico is increasing social security spending by $5.5 billion.

• The Mexican Volkswagen strike has ended with a new pay deal.

• DHS Boss Chertoff is touring the Texas-Mexico border.

• We read that SWAT team use may be increased on the border.

• Mexico says it will crack down on Tijuana police involved with drugs.

• Telmex is buying a Colombian cable outfit.

• The La Caridad copper mine is being restarted after a long strike.

• And... Total (Oil) is getting 20 exploration blocks from Mexico.

All of which would seem to paint a picture of a country where "normal" prevails. But, beneath the shallow headlines of the day, there's continuing evidence that the administration's efforts to stem the flow of illegals into the US has been less than sincere.

You'll recall, for example that America was sold the idea in May that "6,000 National Guard troops" would be sent to the border to help combat the insurgency.  Yet with a little snooping around, you'll find that the actual number of Guardsmen is less than 500. And as reports come out, it turns out the Guardsmen are unarmed, and so they need bodyguards - which usually turn out to be the people they were supposed to "relieve."

Australia's Buy-In

The Prime Minister of Australia, John Howard is promoting the idea that Australia needs 2,600 more soldiers at the ready. No doubt for use as peacekeepers in places other than Oz.  Australian media says the PM will try to feature the Army's "good life."  Translation: Oz will spend more money on advertising for soldiers and will overlook past drug use and certain tattoos.

No to Kidnappers

Palestinians who are holding two Fox News journalists have been told no, the US won't ante up for their release.

Debby Upstaged

A new tropical depression is heading towards the Caribbean, which could mean storm E could get here before D.

Housing Collapsing

Like a bad slow motion video, the housing market in the US seems bound to seize up.  We read that existing home sales are the lowest since January of 2004, and with more companies planning layoffs, we don't see any reason to expect a resurgence in housing prices any time soon.  One reason?  Mass layoffs continue perking right along:

From the government report "On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the number of layoff events in July 2006, at 1,511, was down by 470 from a year earlier, and the number of associated initial claims decreased by 77,359 to 166,857. These were the lowest number of events and initial claims reported for any July since 2000. This is likely due in part to a calendar effect; July 2006 contained 4 weeks for possible mass layoffs, compared with 5 weeks in each July of the prior 2 years. "

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Wednesday August 23, 2006

Dangers of Driving

It's a lot of statistics to munch, but the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has concluded that more than 43-thousand people were killed in auto accidents last year - an increase of 1.4%.

More interesting was that motorcycle deaths were up 13% for the year. while pedestrian deaths were up 4.4%.  Bicycle deaths were up 7.8%. 

The Iran Dance

Today's task for diplomats is to figure out what the heck Iran has buried in the fine print of their proposals issued yesterday.  Usually, Iran  highlights this or that, but today, they're leaving it for diplomats to figure out without promoting.

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We're in an interesting period here as the www.halfpasthuman.com web bot project forecasts a global population rotating into a revolution/rebellion mode shortly after the first of September, although often the state change takes place but it might take a week or two for news events to catch up.  As a result, I find myself looking as possible flash points such as the Kurdish situation in Iraq as possible leading indicators.

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The number of US forces in Iraq has climbed back to 138,000 with the military issuing an involuntary recall of Marines. Opinion on the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/neocon [BCRN] handling of Iraq continues split.  The Boston Globe, for example, says Bush is hanging onto a lost cause, while the Detroit Free Press gives ink to "Bush: Our job isn't done in Iraq."

Osama and Whitney?

Tell me it ain't so!

22 Held in 10-Plane Plot

The "10-plane plot" hasn't been getting much coverage lately, but it's winding its way through the British Court system. 11 have been charged so far and another 11 are being held with possible charges pending.

China/Chavez Oil Deals

Not the kind of thing we like to report: China is set to sign a series of agreements with Venezuela on oil exploration and production.

Another Disputed Election

Mexico is just full of election disputes these days.  Take for example the weekend governor election in the southern Chiapas state. No word on the presidential election where fraud has been alleged.

Lightning Crash

The crash of a Russian jet yesterday is being blamed on lightning.  170 people killed in that.

Debby

Tropical storm Debby is continuing to strengthen off the African Coast.  It'll be a long ways to land for this fourth named storm of the season.

Math Award Dissed

A Russian math whiz is skipping ceremonies to mark his achievement: Solving the Poincare Conjecture. Let me see: Can't turn a doughnut inside out without ripping it...hmmm...

California Minimum Wage

It's going up to $8 an hour between now and 2008 as a result of a deal hammered out between der Governator and the Legislature. Although it might sound good, I'd wager that if you took depreciation of the currency (FRN-watering/sham price hikes), soaring house prices, and the under-reported cost of living, $8 bucks t'ain't no big deal, and might even be a loss...

U-Tex, Austin Honors

Honors?  U-Tex?  Sure - - as the top party school in the country!  Yee haw!

Killer Summer Cold Slapdown

I don't normally complaint about health matters, but on my whirlwind tour last week I came down with a hellavah cold.  Whacked me about 3 AM Tuesday.  Wrote yesterday's report and have gotten 20-hours of sleep since then.  More sleep likely this morning.  Strictly a nasal thing, but slow reacting to my home remedies of zinc tablets, colloidal silver, Benedryl, and gallons of orange juice.  If you subscribed to Peoplenomics yesterday, I will get your account set up today before crashing again...

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 My primary "suspect source" for this is a shirt-tail relative, a Pharm PhD who was just getting over something similar who assured me last Wednesday evening at dinner that I shouldn't be concerned with his sniffles: "I'm not contagious."  Ha!  I've had to give up on Kleenex, moved on to paper towels, and yesterday had to run a bilge pump ½ the time to keep up with the nose.  Elaine was appropriately concerned about paper towels being hard of my nose, but I insisted that the bilge pump and using the belt sander in the shop would do just as well.  E knows I'm seriously ill when I show no interest in food including chocolate chip mint ice cream.  Even lifting the remote for the TV seemed a bit too much. 

It's like Pappy used to say; "Once you get a cold, you'll have it 7-days.  Or you can go to the doctor and you'll have it a week."

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This encounter of mine with the "kick-in-the-butt, knock-you-off-your-feet" cold does however serve to remind me that air travel makes it possible to spread a disease throughout the whole of the country within a day or two. A Rand Report extract from "The Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases" offers this:

As Laurie Garrett observes:

 

In the age of jet travel, a person incubating a disease such as Ebola can board a plane, travel 12,000 miles, pass unnoticed through customs and immigration, take a domestic carrier to a remote destination, and still not develop symptoms for several days, infecting many other people before his [or her] condition is noticeable.11

 

Compounding the problem is the fact that overcrowded, poorly ventilated, and (sometimes) unsanitary aircraft constitute ideal environments for the transmission of viruses and bacteria, particularly on long flights. Reflecting this, travel health guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) now specifically refer to the possibility of catching infectious TB in flight as “realistic,” especially on flights of more than eight hours. The WHO has recorded several instances in which individuals flying on planes with other TB infected travelers have been infected with the bacterium that causes the lung infection.12

 

One disease that has certainly reached pandemic proportions at least partly as a result of globalization and the international movement of goods and people is AIDS. Studies in Africa have tracked the progress of the causative HIV agent along trucking routes, with major roads acting as principal corridors of viral spread between urban areas and other proximal settlements.

So to a lesser extent any transportation system moves disease around - something New World small pox victims no doubt learned the hard way.

But if you were on any of my flights last week, not to worry.  "I'm not contagious." 

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Iran's Rig Seizure and Russia on Maneuvers

Two Steps toward Militarized Oil Fields

We have been hearing for quite a while about some kind of "big move" that Iran was threatening to make today.  And scanning the headlines this morning, the only thing out of the ordinary seems to be the Iranian military's apparent seizure of an oil rig, clearly located within Iranian territorial waters. No word on the fate of 26 crew members aboard.

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In what may turn into a parallel move, we notice that Russia is planning military exercises around the Caspian region.  This comes at a time when Russia is making very large increases in its international monetary reserve position. Lots of the Russian position is gold.

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With oil becoming such a "hot commodity" in the world's future, it stands to reason that super power militaries would want to put the source of their economic nectar under direct - military - control.

Iran's move on the oil rig comes about 10-days before an international deadline to conform on nuclear inspections comes at the UN.  Curiously, the timing of the UN deadline is about coincident with the data the web bot project of www.halfpasthuman.com suggests that the global population of the world will transition into a new emotional building period highlighted by revolution and rebellion.

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Not to overbuild my case for the emergent militarization of oil fields, but my friend Jeffrey Brown has a very pertinent post on global declining production at Energy Bulletin yesterday in which he noted:

"As of the May, 2006 EIA numbers, the world is down 1.3% since December, an annual decline rate of 3.1% per year, but the top 10 oil exporters are down 3.0%, an annual decline rate of 7.2%.

Note that consumption is growing quite rapidly in most of the exporting countries, and note that in most cases domestic consumption is satisfied before oil is exported. In the captioned article, I showed, using my "Export Land" model, how a 25% drop in oil production and a 20% increase in consumption (over a five year period) would lead to a 70% drop in net oil exports.

I estimate that net oil exports from the top exporters are probably down by 4% to 5% (over a five month period), an annual decline rate of as much as 12% per year, which suggests that exports from the top exporters are falling about three to four times faster than world oil production is falling"

So with supplies shrinking, Iran's move today, and the recent "guerrilla" activities in Nigeria, and did I mention the  threats of Hugo Chavez to follow a "scorched earth policy should Venezuelan fields be seized? - I think you see an emerging big picture here - the case for militarized oil fields. Mainstream media will not doubt stumble around for a few weeks "getting it" but as a Stanford EE friend told me yesterday "Sometimes in stats, one data point is really noticeable and two data points is a trend." Once in a while those Stanford guys get something right; today's action  may be two dots of "armed oil fields."

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Carried to the extreme, militarization of oil might lead to the renaming of gasoline grades.  "Fill'er up with AK-47" might one day indicate regular and "I'll take RPG*" might denote higher octane fuel.  E-85 could become "Sour-mash" while E-85 in a 4X4 would be Sour-mash on the rocks... (Coffee!!!)

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Lebanon Aftermath

Several follow-ups to the invasion to be reported today: First, Italy is asking for some clarification of the UN mandate.  This point aside, they are also offering to lead the cease fire enforcement troops being sent to the region. The second item is in the Jerusalem Post today and says the US is telling Israel "no financial aid for the Lebanon invasion." I don't know whether to take the report seriously, or whether it's one of those election year stories to keep heat of the spendthrift pretenders who label themselves republicans.  Maybe both?

Mexico's Simmering Revolution?

Our Houston bureau chief sends along advice to read up on the teacher rebellion in the Oaxaca region of Mexico.  Not that I need much encouragement - it's a curious study of will of the people versus the machine.  meantime, a correspondent in Mexico writes:

"I see on Urban Survival, that some people are talking about a dark Mexican plot to invade the US and take over or take back, the Southwest.

This is total NONSENSE, George. Mexicans are going to the States because there are much better opportunities for them there, period! Our politicians are so wrapt up in their day-to-day struggle with local affairs, it is absolutely impossible to think of any group conspiring to send millions of Mexicans across the border. Please, please do not fall for such nonsense. There is absolutely no group in Mexico, capable of planning such a vast operation. (But, opening the doors, or leaving them open, is certainly a deliberate policy emanating from WASHINGTON!)   [At mainly corporate behest, as we've reported - G]

Why are there more opportunities in the States than in Mexico? Globalization is the root of the problem. We cannot compete with China, nor with Southeast Asia, nor with Japan or Korea - either the low wages, or the high tech of these countries is out of our reach. So productive business as opposed to consumer business, is having a very hard time in Mexico. No job creation there. Mexicans do not want to starve on Chinese-level wages, so - they go to the US, "land of plenty" (plenty of dollars).

I can assure you that Mexicans most certainly DO NOT relish having to go to the US. They go because 1. better paying jobs are there 2. there is no other alternative job for them, at a living wage. 3. US unstated policy is allowing them fairly easy entry.

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Next, a thought on my mind this morning:

Pres. Bush better watch his back. His ratings are so low, he is a liability to his group - I won't say the Rep. Party, because it's the controlling group around Bush that is going to be thinking this way. The neo-cons, in fact.

Bush has been a useful tool so far, but now his popularity is sinking and will continue to sink. His group has to be thinking: "Why should we sink with him? Cut off this dead weight, he is no longer useful.

"Now, we can cut off this dead weight by - well, let's think of a way to stage a terror attack, why not the White House? Thus, we can get rid of Bush, by turning him into a HERO in the war against terror, and by an outrageous attack on the Holy of Holies, the White House, we shall energize the American people for further war in the M.E. including nuking the whole area and getting the job done, as George wanted."

This would leave Cheney - the real POTUS - in position for re-election in the coming Presidential elections. I think this is what is called "Straussian thinking".

But all this is certainly beyond belief, isn't it? Just bad early morning dreams.

Saludos, amigo!

Goldman-Sachs-BushCo?

Interesting article on how many Bush administration picks lately have come from the ranks of Goldman-Sachs.  I wonder what kind of relationship, if any, Goldman has/had with handling the Treasury Department Economics Stabilization Funds (a/k/a the Plunge Protection Team, now the more subtlety named Presidential Working Committee on Markets).  We can hardly wait to see what John Crudele's NY Post Freedom of Information Act request bring out.. As Crudele asked:

"And we'd also like to know who makes decision for the group, politicians or guys on Wall Street. Don't misunderstand, Mr. Bernanke. I'm not saying what the group is doing is wrong. But why should firms like Goldman Sachs - from which two of the last four Treasury secretaries have come - be in a better position than anyone else who gambles in the stock market?

See, that's why I'll never be in Congress. "

Tell you what: If Crudele ran for Congress, put me down for a $100 contribution!

Cover Girl Hill

If you're one of those people who thinks it's "Time for Hillary" you could be more right thank you think. One of my enterprising readers offers that "Time Magazine" has put here on 10 covers dating back to 1992.  I haven't checked to see how many independent candidates have made the cover in the same period but no,  democratic turncoat Joe Lieberman is not an independent as I see it.

Cattle Herds

Yet another report on how states like Oklahoma are seeing big moves of cattle to market in order to curb the high costs of drought.

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Elaine and I looked at some freezers yesterday, but frankly I've been largely disappointed with the energy efficiency ratings of most.  The smaller freezers we looked at (13.7 C/F) all seemed to have lousy ratings such that they eat the same power as a 21 C/F unit, or within spitting distance.

Silver to Zoom?

While the real star performer in the metals group has been nickel recently, Ted Butler has a line of thinking that suggests silver will be next. Our friend, the Gold & Silver Trader has been beside himself with glee.  Not only does he love the trading signal given by the new system I penciled out for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers, but he has about turned purple holding back his enthusiasm for low warehouse numbers of silver.

August 21, 2006

Peoplenomics subscribers note: 

The data table used in the new trading system discussed this week has been updated/expanded a bit.  Click here for access.

Grinding Toward December

There are plenty of headlines about the Israel- Lebanon conflict today, but it takes a few moments to get through all the chaff and down to the nitty-gritty.  On the surface of events, we read that Israel is wary of peacekeeping forces from countries that do not have diplomatic relations with it. In other words, Olmert, et al, don't trust Indonesia, Malaysian, and other forces from Muslim countries that are likely to be involved. Meantime, Israeli jets are still skirting close to the Syrian border, keeping tensions high.

Behind the headlines, though, we can begin to see some of the events that may lead to an expect (by the web bot project) attack on Israel around the December period.  First, we note that Israeli PM Olmert has ruled out any peace talks with Syria. But we are also reading other reports which are even more of a concern.  Besides word that Syria is removing land mines from the Golan Heights, we see Russian forces moving west:  And Israel left the Golan Heights weakened to the point where Syria could have struck.

There are also two articles which appeared in the English language version of the Russian paper Pravda recently.  One points to tomorrow when Iran has promised the world "something BIG" and Pravda wonders if that something might be nuclear.  The other article (satire) is from this morning and is headlined "Bush welcomes Israel as 51st State."

Amidst all the shuffling, intrigue, and tensions which has been playing out 24/7 for the better part of a month, along comes German Chancellor Angela Merkel to describe the Middle East situation as "very fragile."  Gee, yah think?

Third World Conquest of USA

Patrick Buchanan's new book "State of Emergency" is due out tomorrow. Sounding like some of my past comments about "reconquista" the Amazon book description says in part:

In this important book, Pat Buchanan reveals that, slowly but surely, the great American Southwest is being reconquered by Mexico. These lands---which many Mexicans believe are their birthright---are being detached ethnically, linguistically, and culturally from the United States by a deliberate policy of the Mexican regime. This is the “Aztlan Plot” for “La Reconquista,” the recapture of the lands lost by Mexico in the Texas War of Independence and Mexican-American War.

A Drudge comment on the books offers this statistic: "One in every twelve people breaking into America has a criminal record."  Yet another one for your reading list.

Flying Suspect

The suspect in the JonBenet Ramsey case has arrived in the US after being pampered on a business class flight.

Turncoat Joe

Joe Lieberman's easy abandonment of the democorps is being criticized by John Kerry, who calls Joe the "New Cheney."  Clearly, big media in Connecticut is pushing Lieberman over Lamont in their poll results. And speaking of polls and media-limited choices...

"Low Negative Ratings"

Senatrix Clinton shows better than the others mentioned in a new poll by Time. The only issues I have with the poll are 1) they didn't ask me [her ratings would be lower] and 2) why the hell do national media keep rerunning the same aristocrats?  Haven't they figured out perhaps 85% of the public wants new faces, fresh blood, and creative solutions?  No? Oh crap...

Oz: Housing  Going "Down Under"

A reader in Australia sends along this note about how the decline in housing prices, which some say may fall by 2/3'rd's in the USA, are already dropping down under:

"G'day George,

The following article appears in today's Sydney Morning Herald, and is the first time I have seen a headline like this in our city ofmore than 4 million. Seems like what's happening in the U.S.A is happening here at a gathering pace. Might shake a few more outof the delusion of all the political lies that all's well economically.

A 42% drop in value would sober anyone up. It's happening.

Regards, [read in] , N.S.W.

Housing crash puts sellers in debt crisis  (Photo of house with article at above link)

A THREE-BEDROOM brick-veneer house in St Clair sold for just $260,000 at the weekend - down about 42 per cent from its last sale at $450,000 in 2003 in a further sign of the depressed state of the Sydney property market."

Beefing Up

I've been mentioning for a while that local ranchers here in Texas and many in places like Oklahoma are taking a large part of their herds to market now because the drought has hindered hay production. Here in East Texas, while there are showers in the forecast (only 30% though) there's no way that we'll make up 7 inches of rain missing year-to-date. Drought's been so bad in Montana that trees are dying - and we expect to lose some here in Texas, too.

The mechanics, if you're a city slicker, go something like this: Rancher grows grass (coastal and Bermuda are local favorites).  Rancher cuts grass (hay) and puts it up in big rolls (bales are old school and smaller).  Come winter, rancher feeds grass/hay to animals.  Big herd is ready for next year's barbie.  Following this?

Now, with little rain, there's little grass, so only one or two cuts instead of 2-3 (and rarely 4).  So the rancher figures "Hmmm... better unload some cattle because they will be hella-spensive to feed this winter..." (*Actually, the rancher would say something like "Shoot, them cattle are gonna bust me if I don't take 'em ta auction..." but if you're a "slicker, "hella-spensive" is a linguistic equivalent.)

Now, we flip over to the latest out of Farm Credit Canada, where big herds are also the norm.

"As of July 1, cattle producers reported 16.2 million head on their operations, down 4.7 per cent from the same date last year. This was the first decline in the national herd in seven years. "

Small herds in Canada means no big supply sitting out there for next spring.  We're buying a freezer this week and scaling into stored protein for next year.  Could be a great investment.

:Kennedy Case: Not a Lone Gunman?

A very interesting report out of California from Lawrence Livermore Labs about the Kennedy case. So much for the "single bullet" theory.

Solar Cycle Underway

A small "backward" sunspot means the next solar cycle is underway.  Astronomers and ham radio types are maybe among the few who care...

Excitement Of Mondays

I've never had a problem getting up on Mondays: There is a certain "rush" to Monday, although nothing could come close to last Monday when our previous server farm was hacked.  We're now operating from two servers.  One is where www.independencejournal.com, my site about sustainable living is located.  The new site, which by a margin of 171 to 25  reader responses to my poll last week, is faster than the old site, is where www.urbansurvival.com and www.peoplenomics.com live.  As a note to yourself, please bookmark the www.independencejournal.com site because if I ever run into an issue with a site hack again, or power outage, or whatever, I will post an advisory on that site so we won't have a lot of down time.  Such a focus on high-reliability operation may seem a bit odd for a free site, but it's the subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com that make all this possible that is my first concern.

The most exciting piece of "economic discovery I've come up with in a while is contained in this week's peoplenomics.com report (which you'll see below). 

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Programmer humor:  On the old server farm, if my FTP connection timed out, I used to see the standard error message: "Connection timed out."  On the new site, hosted by www.emwd.com offers this fuzzy advice: "Timeout: Try typing faster next time"  I like that kind of humor. 

News from Elliott Wave International

The Web UrbanSurvival Only

On to Our Chart!

Instead of our customary chart, this week you get a free peak at one of our other charts from www.peoplenomics.com - this is our "Global Markets Equally Weighted" chart:

Write when you get rich,

George Ure, The People's Economist