Katrina +1

New Orleans - One Year Later
by Bernard Grover
Exclusive to UrbanSurvival.com

This reporter spent the week in New Orleans shooting a documentary for Microsoft, following up on various grants the company gave to help rebuild the infrastructure and the citizenry.  This article is the result of what was learned post-Katrina on this field trip.

New Orleans is a superficial construct of its former self.  About the only industry in town is reconstruction, which is paid for by tourism and the various grants and tax dollars.  The tourism is not nearly what it was, though.  Many bars close around midnight (Louisiana has no closing time for bars) and restaurants struggle to fill window seats to appear full.  The Quarter was relatively unscathed by the devastation, but the crowds are minimal and the area is virtually deserted by midnight.

Nearly every intersection is dense with signs advertising construction jobs or various remediation services.  One enterprising soul must have spent a small fortune on plywood and green spray paint, as his signs offering "discount tree trimming" are ubiquitous.

Much of the non-tourist industry is still closed.  The Blue Plate mayonaise plant is dark and the boat yards are hardly utilized.  Rush hour is primarily composed of folks coming from or going back to Baton Rouge and environs each day.  It seems a good portion of the workforce is non-indigenous.

Ninth Ward is a ghost town.  Though some lots have been cleared, for the most part, it remains untouched since last August.  The devastation there truly brings home the magnitude of destruction.  The houses are gutted and many are further destroyed by fire.  All are unoccupied.  The streets are littered with flotsam and jetsam and the grass is already growing over the asphalt.  Though the locals joke that it doesn't look much worse than before the flood, it is a sort of gallows humor betraying a dark resignation.

In a more upscale neighborhood off of N. Claibourne, the scene is quite different.  Though many of the houses took up to 8 feet of water, construction crews are busy stripping and rebuilding.  Here and there, water lines can be seen graphically demonstrating the depth of the flooding.  One two-story house still bore the mark evenly splitting the second story from the first.

Even in this neighborhood, though, nothing is perfect.  One woman, Pat, a skilled professional, had flood insurance, over $1 million in the bank and a number of resources that poorer folk don't.  Yet, a year later she is still fighting to get her insurance to pay.  Their initial offer for a two-story brick, with a pre-flood market value over $200,000,  was $39,000.  They are up to $94,000 right now, and friends are advising her to take it.  Her house remains unlivable and she is living out of a FEMA trailer in the front yard, as a great number of families are currently doing.  In fact, the trailers are everywhere in this neighborhood.

Anecdotal reports from St. Bernard parish say that the area south of New Orleans is virtually wiped off the map.  The various small towns from Cameron eastward are totally destroyed.  There is no rebuilding because there is nothing to rebuild.  It will take a complete ground-up effort to make the areas livable again, if they ever are.

For the most part, New Orleanians are resigned to the fact that it may  be 20 years or more for the region to recover completely.  Some doubt that it will ever be the same, while others are hoping and working to make sure it never will be.

Several non-profits and NGOs are using their efforts to correct the past and make the future quite different.  They are taking advantage of the situation to rebuild New Orleans as a showcase city of the 21st century.  They are seeking to improve not only the physical infrastructure, but to correct centuries of intractable social and racial inequities in education and access.  They are finding sympathetic ears with the governor and mayor, however, when priorities are simply to plug the dike (literally, in some cases), it is difficult to get action on more amorphous problems like social inequities.

One thing seems certain: New Orleans has changed forever.  Whether it is for the better or worse will only be proven in time.  One other thing is certain, as well.  If the city receives another blow even a fraction of Katrina, there may be no resuscitation.  The current recovery is at a very fragile stage and many of the rebuilding efforts are based on a relatively quick remediation.  However, should the city be hit again, sympathy and largesse may be extremely rare commodities in the Crescent City.  And that assumes that there will be anything to rebuild after another blow.

Grover's report is echoed by the East Texans I've spoken with locally.  A a lumber yard on Thursday I heard that  "There was some fellas that had a skid loader and a dump truck - and they was doing over a thousand dollars a day," reported one local.  "But, as soon as the debris was picked up, there wasn't much happening because the insurance money had dried up to almost nuthin'," chimed in another  lumber yard customer.  "It's still like half blue tarps down there now."

So much for the aftermath of the web bot's "city slips into the mud" forecast, one year on.
 

One Month of War

Tripled Troops among "Cease fire" talk

After nearly a month of killing, the world powers have agreed to an "immediate case fire" in Lebanon.  We notice the administration has given up the discussion of a "sustainable cease fire" which we interpret as a sign that they seriously misjudge (yet another) Middle East situation.  And, as readers are aware, this sets up the media frenzy for the next week to 10 days as we are expecting to see "mission accomplished" parties in Israel.  For today though, no let up in the fighting which Israel has just expanded - while the world's attention was diverted by the "plot" to blow up as many as 10-jets (next story).  The number of Israeli troops in Lebanon is being tripled.

Unfortunately, the time predictive software of www.halfpasthuman.com predicts that while we will get a break in hostilities, Israel will be back in war in December.

Meantime, our reader east of Haifa sends us this update:

hi george:

here's the latest from 'the holy land'

we were supposed to go to HAIFA today to pick up a new commercial fridge and oven for our restaurant here--we never made it the authorities closed the coastal road due to ROCKET ATTACKS--rumor has it one landed in the middle of the highway

this morning [Friday - G], we heard many explosions over the GALILEAN hills--turns out, the FAJR-7 Iranian rockets are now being used, far more deadly and long-distance capable the house shook as it hasn't before

the news about the terror plot in BRITAIN has caught everyone by surprise--we know the ENEMY but expected them to try something like that HERE--not THERE MEANWHILE, the sirens wail constantly, on average once per hour, many of our friends are in RESERVE duty--my friend **** and her boyfriend have been 'pressed' into service at her dad's factory, since the regular staff has been 'thinned' due to war and the consequence of a civilian army

from the REAR of the FRONT.... (reader)

Terror Plot Suspicions

My eldest daughter sent a rather telling email on Friday.  "Do you think the 'terror plot thwarted' headlines are real?  I don't think I do..." she wrote.  Yes, the headlines are real, but was there another agent provocateur pushing things along?  Some blogs and Middle East sources point that direction. 

While US media, like Black News Weekly headlines "Terror plot to blowup planes may be a hoax." the travel mess at airports has been remarkable.

BP's Pipeline About-Face

After saying last weekend that it would take all of its Prudhoe Bay output offline for pipeline repairs, BP has done a major about face - now saying that it plans to keep about half of its flow going.  Change of heart?  Yes, and perhaps inspired a bit by plans of multiple agencies (including the State of Alaska and CONgress) to investigate to see what's really going on.

Castro's Getting Old

With brother Raul holding the reins of power in Cuba, while he recovers in hospital, Fidel Castro is observing his 80th birthday. 

Saomai Damage

More than 100 people have been killed by Typhoon Saomai which hit China this week. Now, concerns have arisen about drought and a shortage of drinking water.

Mexi-Quake

It's not the "big one" (due for the US West Coast around October'ish) but the 5.9 on Friday in Mexico City was enough to remind folks that there's more than just elections to be concerned about.  Speaking of which, Lopez Obrador supporters shut down one lane crossing the US border this week. But only for about 20-minutes. The contested Mexican elections are being neatly shoved off page one by the "plot story."

Is the "Die-Off" Underway?

When it comes to something like Peak Oil, people have all kinds of opinions. On the one hand, you have the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas saying, in effect, we're there, just before, or, just past it right now. And life goes on pretty much like yesterday. You'll gripe about politics, do nothing about inflation, maybe vote in the general election, and hope your adjustable rate mortgage doesn't go up faster than your income. On the flip side, you can read all kinds of optimistic reports in the annual reports of major oil companies which spell out in detail how many reserves there are, and how it's enough to last several generations. Our topic today is simple: If you thought it was hard to figure out Peak Oil, consider that no one wants to be the first to stand up and say "A HUGE Die Off of Humans has started. Yet, there are several indicators suggesting that regardless of your view of Peak Oil, famine and worse probably lies in your immediate (think 5-years or less) future.

Cheapish, Bookish

"How to Live on $10,000 a year, or less" (which will set you back just $10 at our ebookstore - click here - has lots of tips on how to live frugally.  There are two sides to the "wealth" equation - income and outgo - and this one deals with the "outgo" part.

Gorilla Marketing

In just 3- steps:

1. Put on a gorilla suit.

2. Send an email to 10 of your friends telling them to check out this page every morning.  This convenient link will work if you have Microsoft Office...

3. Take off gorilla suit

I understand one of my readers who forgot to take off the gorilla suit trying this approach has landed a big budget Hollywood advertising gig, so you might consider skipping step #3.

Friday August 11, 2006

The 10 Jet Plot

We keep reading with amazement the reports on the thwarted plot to blow up 10-USA jets, because of the web bot report sent out to www.halfpasthuman.com readers early Sunday warning of the "10-birds over the USA".  What's most interesting is the idea that the plot would involve a liquid explosive, perhaps a binary. While liquid explosives have been around for a long time (nitroglycerin, for example) the real work got going on their development in the 1960's and 70's:

Flashback: "Astrolite"

How good is your knowledge of liquid explosives development, beyond finicky nitroglycerin?  A number of readers have pointed out that there's open source material still on the web about how to make liquid explosives.  Here's a site, for example gives directions on how to make something called "Astrolite G" as well as Astrolite A-1-5.  Being able to find liquid explosives information on the web is where "free speech" collides with common sense.

Being an old-school Seattle news director, I recall problems with the early development of Astrolite.  One reason is their testing sometimes went terribly and fatally wrong.  One of the first stories I covered as a "police beat reporter" in 1970 involved then Redmond (WA) based Rocket Research Corporation and it's 92% owned subsidiary Explosives Corporation of America.  From Washington State court records:

On October 13, 1970, an explosion involving a liquid explosive, Astrolite, occurred at the Raging River explosives manufacturing and test site of the Explosives Corporation of America (hereinafter EXCOA). ...

Remember, the Astrolite accident is a 35-year old story which eventually evolved into a major wrongful death lawsuit. The point is liquid explosive development has been going on a loooong time.

The state-of-the-art has advanced a lot since then - and binary chemistry is reportedly well advanced, with formulas available in gray, and classified literature.  That's classified in the USA: Remember that since the fall of the Soviet empire,  there's  good reason to be concerned with binary agents - two part combinations that are undetectable by themselves, and yet which when mixed and set off with a small spark, such as from small electronics, could bring down an aircraft.  So, no laptops or other electronics in the passenger cabin now. 

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I also have to wonder if this isn't the "black wind" that was warned of last summer by that L.A. born young al Qaida convert.  I recall CBS was reporting the  coming "black wind"  in March 2004.

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This plot, say reports, may have been in the planning for as long as 11 years.  And now, the reaction to the plot constitutes the leading edge of the web bot predictive software's...

"Restrictions on Travel" - Another "Bot Hit"

OK, so besides a "statistically impossible by guessing" hit with the "10-birds over the USA" prediction which was in last week's web bot run 5 days prior to the actual events, we are not also seeing the leading edge of our "restrictions on travel" that have been prominent in the linguistic predictive work for almost a year. Our Southern California reader sends this:

"While the timing of the "security" announcement may or may not be "too pat", one thing is obvious. Cliff and Igor's work certainly predicted the "travel restrictions" invoked by the TSA as a result of the "announcement". I chose to drive from San Diego to San Jose for a conference I attended this week, and thanks to the air traffic jam created by this security concern, I may beat my colleagues who chose air travel home. I'll certainly enjoy the coastal scenery even more under the current circumstances."

My own travel plans, regrettably don't allow for the leisure of a cross-country drive.  I need to be in Burbank on Tuesday, Seattle Wednesday, and back here at the ranch on Thursday.  That kind of mileage in a car in 4-days?  I don't think so - not in 4-banger anyway.

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A number of people have written in to me asking if there was maybe something peculiar about the fact that when condition "orange" occurred, that there were signs already printed up professionally explaining that about all you can take onto an aircraft will be a wallet, ticket, and ID - no liquids, laptops, or lunches.

Honestly, no, I don't see anything odd there.  The move to "orange"  has been around as a planning option for a long time - so everyone has been able to prepare.  When you think about it, we could further reduce threat levels by requiring people to fly either naked or in their underwear, with the airline holding all wallets and documents....  More coffee...

Pakistan's Role

One other point to the "10 plane plot" coverage is that Pakistan, an Islamic nation with nuclear weapons, played a key role in preventing the disaster.  The "bust" followed the arrest of two suspects in Pakistan and the performance of Pakistan's intelligence service has been characterized as exemplary.

Plot of the Day

With the airline plot foiled, the US has issued embassy warnings in India, saying al Qaida may be planning bombings there.  Airports in India are also a concern.

The Coming US/Weimar

I'm not sure if you have had enough coffee yet, but let's see how current events are pushing us down the road into the kind of world which the predictive software and our own studies have been suggesting for several years.  First, we lose a good chunk of US oil production due to the BP Pipeline shutdown announced on Sunday.  Next we get the "restrictions on travel" showing up, necessitated by the "10 birds over the USA" terror plot.  In about a month, absent replacement stocks at the previous run rates, the West Coast, and in particular the Pacific Northwest run low/or out of jet fuel.  Along about October'ish, we get our big West Coast earthquake, but  long before then, our "encounter with scarcity/shortages" projections should start to become obvious.

Now, along with that (but preceding the "fall of empire" archetype next year, we will likely see a collapse of the paper asset bubble that has extended unbelievably long already.  In fact, a reader spied this site which projects in a believable way, how the US could go into hyper-inflation next year, as the "death throws" of the dollar (Federal Reserve Notes) could occur.

When Elaine gets back from her travels, we'll be buying as energy efficient a freezer as we can and stocking it with the finest protein we can afford.  Because of the drought, lots of ranchers have been telling our sources that they are taking larger than normal herds to market right now and as a result, we expect beef prices will continue to be good for another month, or so.  But, after that, driven by the soaring cost of feed, you should expect food prices, especially proteins, to head skyward in a major way.

Oregon's "Dead Zone"

Off the coast of Oregon, a huge "dead zone" has appeared. It will cause lots of fisheries problems.  Now, remember that earlier this year, (our week ending March 26 report) we covered the large number of dead birds showing up around Bandon Oregon. I don't know if there's a connection, but it's curious that we get dead birds and then an oxygen deprivation dead zone 5-months later.  This seems similar to the dead zone that occurs with some regularity in Scandinavia, thought tied to fertilizer runoffs and such. But they have been cropping up globally.  This is likely the leading edge of the web bot's massive fisheries die off this fall/winter.

Killer Winds

111 dead so far from the Typhoon Saomai landfall in China.

Auto Hype

GM is retooling the classic Camaro for a comeback in 2009.  Not to throw rocks at GM, but to plan to put a V-6/V-8 400 HP power plant in a car given the present oil situation - and looking out to 2009 - seems a bit, well,  unrealistic. But, it may turn into a fine example of how projecting today's trends continuing forward ($65 dollar oil) can lead great companies astray.  Change happens.  And sooner than you think.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Web Bot Hit!

10 Birds Over USA

In the Web Bot 0307_1 run which was distributed on 5/8/06 to www.halfpasthuman.com subscribers, we note this of extreme interest: A reference to "10 birds over the USA".  Pay attention to the news reports this morning:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4778575.stm 

BBC Report:

“It is thought the plan was to detonate explosive devices smuggled in hand luggage on to as many as 10 aircraft.”   [emphasis added]

Bot Run 0307_1 / 08/05/2006

"Running parallel to this area within Populace/USofA and temporally bound by the 'full  moons' of August and September {ed note: from August 6th to end of day, September 5th},  the data set also contains a reference to 'ten birds {in the} sky' over the USofA. A very  ominous collection of wording given the September 11th, 2001 events, the current state of  affairs,  [emphasis added] and the constant rumors that the Bushista/GOP's administration is so corrupt as to  induce a crisis within the USofA in order to try to maintain their grip on political power.

 

At the risk of pandering to fear, we also need to note that by the last day of August, the  Populace/USofA entity is also showing the 'conflict' meta data layer as dominating within it, so the totality of the data set is going to the idea of *perhaps* some form of 'ten crises', or  interpreted at its broadest level, 'multiple crises' which draw the populace of the USofA into  manifesting 'conflict' internally. We note that the Populace/USofA is *always* manifesting  'conflict' externally out and about within the world, and has done so over the last century of  pretty much continuous warfare. However, the data set is clearly showing that 'conflict' will

 ow be internal to the population, and presumably within the borders of the USofA".

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Pretty interesting for a little “garage operation” huh?  As the "time monks" disclaim with each report:

"The Authors cannot be held liable for accuracy of lack thereof in this report. Authors cannot be held liable for human interpretation of this report nor any action any human takes as a result of this report. Any human foolish enough to alter their behavior based on this entertainment-only analysis demonstrates themselves incapable of rational appreciation of reality, and the authors are explicitly held harmless and blameless for any and all such mental aberrations on the part of the reader."

Right......Still, better than random odds, as I read it.

Here's an "emotional release event for you...

Plane Bombing Plot Foiled

Authorities in the UK have reportedly foiled a plot to simultaneously blow up several airplanes heading for the US!.  The discovery has also lead to the US raising the security alert level to "red" for the first time ever for planes with UK origins, a move which is expected to cause massive delays at airports like Heathrow.  Meantime, the alert status in the US will be at "orange" today if you are heading for an airport.

Word of the alleged terrorist plot comes as authorities in the US are also on the lookout for eight Egyptian students, part of a group of 11 that went missing shortly after arrival in the US.

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This "emotional release period," which has been forecast by the predictive linguistic technology of www.halfpasthuman.com for several months now, centered on the August 8/9 period (+/- 2 days) has been highlight by some really power emotional/gut level events.  Among them:

• Today's foiled plot to blow up airplanes, which may impact financial markets in the US today.

• The search for missing Egyptian students.

• Flooding in India which has left more than 4 1/2 million people homeless.

• And, of course, at the beginning of the "emotional release period" the unexpected timing of the Alaska pipeline shutdown.

Elsewhere, the arrival of Typhoon Saomai in China has resulted in more than 1-million people being evacuated, but that's the kind of thing which (more or less) happens all the time. 

Curiously, the linguistic didn't give their usual tighter descriptor set for this release period, so what we may be seeing is a "big stew" which will serve as the "release" until we get to the next bump down which comes along about August 18th or so.  We're penciling in the 18th/19th as our next days to plan on a little extra news watching.

Skeptics

There are more than a few folks who've already written in today saying that the timing of this "event" with the planes out of England is a little too convenient, and a little to "pat".  Typical is this one:

I have no way of knowing, of course, but today's big terror flap across the pond may very well be ALL BS and hype. Is it just a coincidence that Treasury is right in the middle of the auctions for the quarterly refunding of our debt (you know, the money we borrow to pay the interest on the money we've already borrowed)? In all probability the auctions aren't going well because foreign central banks no longer want to own the notes of a bankrupt nation which will repay with worthless currency. It's a fair bet that the increasingly fascist Brits are helping out their neocon buddies in the U.S. (the story is that the big bust was the result of a long investigation) by scaring the hell out of everybody, thus encouraging the purchase of Treasury debt by the sheeple, who still perceive government bonds as a safe haven investment. Remember, every dime of debt that isn't sold to a legitimate buyer has to be monetized by the Fed (i.e., the Fed prints the funny money and buys the debt from Treasury).

This stinks to high heaven.

The PPT boys will be active today too. Recall that after the London subway bombings, the stock market was UP. Paulson the Trader is busy too. Gold should be skyrocketing. It's flat, and silver is down. Interesting to see if Corpgov can keep them down with bullion leases and direct sales.

Like you, I don't have anything more than the headlines as they cross the news service wires, but I have to agree that it seems a bit strange the the Fed didn't raise rates which I saw as a 65% probability.  Note that South Korea has just raised rates to a 5-year high.

Balance of Trade

The Bureau of Economic Analysis says the Balance of Trade in June was just about the same as May.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $120.7 billion and imports of $185.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $64.8 billion, $0.2 billion less than the $65.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $2.4 billion more than May exports of $118.4 billion. June imports were $2.2 billion more than May imports of $183.4 billion.

 

In June, the goods deficit decreased $0.7 billion from May to $70.4 billion, and the services surplus decreased $0.5 billion to $5.6 billion. Exports of goods increased $2.5 billion to $86.6 billion, and imports of goods increased $1.9 billion to $156.9 billion. Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion to $34.2 billion, and imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $28.6 billion.

 

In June, the goods and services deficit was up $6.4 billion from June 2005. Exports were up $14.8 billion, or 14.0 percent, and imports were up $21.2 billion, or 12.9 percent.

 

Unfortunately, what I look at is not the month-month numbers./  instead, I prefer the daily run rate.  The $65 billion in May was in a 31-day month. That's $2.09 billion per day.  June, at $64.8 billion in 30-days was running a higher daily burn rate of $2.16 billion per day.

But hey!  Don't listen to me on this...just look at the burn rate and the coincidences around... Consider what happens this fall when Alaska oil comes off in the reports that will reflect the pipeline closure...

Hold That Battle

In the volatile Middle East situation today, the Israelis have been massing troops at the border.  Meantime, the Israeli's have captured another town in Lebanon - and the US discussions continue to be mired in what's called deadly diplomacy.  I wonder if that's anything like "deadly war?"

Iraq War

Suicide bomber hit Najaf, near the holiest shrine to the Shiites.

Spying for Who?

A US Navy sailor is still in jail, but we're finding it interesting that there seem to be two stories out on this.  One says that he was spying for Russia, but initial reports had it that he spied for Israel.  Some media are reporting both...

Problematic Pop

In India, it looks like the move to ban certain kinds of soft drinks is spreading.  If you recall, this is after tests showed things other than listed ingredients in the drink - things like pesticides and such.

Press Bias

Joe Lieberman, who is running now as an independent for senate out of Connecticut shows 8,880 stories in a http://news./google.com search this morning. And Ned Lamont, who beat Lieberman in the democratic primary has only 6,380 stories showing.   I don't know whether to think of this as press bias or simply incumbent advantage, but it's interesting to note and ponder over coffee.

Best Cars

New J.D. Powers ratings are out - and worth a gander if you're going to buy 4-wheels any time soon.

Wednesday August 9, 2006

Pumping Pains

It looks like I'll be making a "speed run" to the West Coast early next week to tape a television interview about the future (which I will spell out for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend). The trip should give me a firsthand look at the price of gasoline at my various stops along the way.  When I get into Burbank on Monday night, there's a gas station near the airport where over the course of a year I never saw higher than $3.29 a gallon for premium.  I can hardly wait to see what it looks like now. 

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This, of course is all high in consciousness now because of the shutdown of the Alaska oil pipeline and speculation that it will drive gasoline prices, especially West Coast, upward.

I asked one of my sources in the industry, Jeffrey Brown, what's the real outlook for the West Coast now that BP has shut down Prudhoe Bay output.  He pointed me to a discussion group:

"From The Oil Drum:

Totonella pointed to where the Alaskan oil went, when there was more of it:

Puget Sound: 419,521 barrels/day

San Francisco 123,870 barrels/day

Los Angeles 333,006 barrels/day

Hawaii 42,682 barrels/day

Exports 78,763 barrels/day

Source: Alaska Department of Revenue.

...unless there is a release of oil from the SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve - G] , we will basically see a bidding war for the types of crude that California needs to replace the Alaskan crude. One possibility is a trade, where some crude shipments are diverted to the West Coast, while the feds release oil from the SPR.

My basic export theory is that we are seeing progressive rounds of demand destruction, as low bidders (in poorer countries) lose out to richer bidders for declining net export capacity. We can temporarily ease this situation by releasing oil from the SPR, but the problem is what does one do when the SPR is empty?

I think that we will see some price increases in California (probably measured in cents per gallon rather than dollars per gallon) but those price signals will, one or the other, bring in the oil--at least temporarily.

The big problem coming up is when the richer countries and the fast developing countries like China and India start bidding against each other, instead of bidding against countries like Pakistan. "

So "crunch time" is a ways off - but not that far.  Meanwhile the diesel problems continue in Colorado today, we also notice that Channel 4 in Harlingen Texas is reporting $2.96 a gallon for diesel in the Rio Grande Valley.

I also notice that my "dream car" the 157-Loremo that I told you about a while back is now making headlines under the heading of Sci Fi Tech...

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It seems to me the thing to keep in mind is that gasoline is expensive and likely to head much higher, especially if the Middle East goes sour and Iran starts withholding energy. 

Just for the sake of comparison, Irish papers are whining that gasoline could hit 1.30 Euros per litre. That would mean 4.92 euros per gallon which is around $3.82 a gallon is US dollars. We're not alone - it's a global problem.

Math correction:  Reader sends this about time the coffee kicks in:

1.30 euros/liter = 4.99 euros/gallon =4.99*1.28 = $6.38/gallon.  +/- rounding

Yup.  More coffee...

Disassembling America: B-52 Cuts

The number of B-52 bombers is reportedly being reduced soon to 33 from the present 94. While the bombers are admittedly old, we find it particularly significant to note the source of the report: China's "People's Daily."  And you wonder why I refer to politicians as the gang that doesn't think straight?

Voting Machine Watch

Despite the last minute - over the top - inflammatory comments charging "insurgency" by Newt Spingrich which we reported yesterday, it looks like Joe Lieberman lost to Connecticut political newcomer Ned Lamont. As one report put it:

"Your vote will determine the national headlines tomorrow: 'Connecticut Democrats show support for War, President Bush' or 'Democrats in Connecticut foreshadow national call for accountability in Iraq,'" Lamont, a wealthy cable television executive, said in an election-day appeal on his Web site. "

As I see it, Lamont's win will be extremely worrisome to the BCRN (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Neocons) as it means that there could be a serious shift in power on CONgress this fall due to the wars. 

Meantime, Newt has, by most reports, seriously "stepped in it" now, perhaps in the process revealing what our future predicting friends believe may be the leading edge of  widespread political "repression" in the US this fall of the pogrom stripe.  By starting the "you're with us, or you're our enemy" framing of discussions, Spingrich has one-upped the Constitution rippers in the District of Corruption, adding Free Speech to the obvious victims of "bomb-bait-and-switch" manipulation of the public.

And what about Joe's plans?  He's promising to mount an independent run for office, but whether that can be pulled off depends on republicorps and democorps that still believe the same old stories from inside the Beltway.  At issue:  Can the same kind of thinking that got us into our world-full-of-messes really get us out?

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Needless to say, any time there is an election, I get a flood of emails saying "Have you seen this latest article on how easy it is to hack an electronic voting machine?  One article even goes so far as to suggest that the flaws with electronic voting are so serious that federal election certification for some touch-screen machines should be withdrawn. 

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One other election outcome: Cynthia McKinney who made headlines for walking past a security checkpoint in DC has lost her re-election bid in Georgia. While McKinney reported declined to congratulate her opponent, she did reportedly claim that electronic voting machines were a threat to democracy.  We noticed.

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With 1 out of 8 Mexicans already here in the US, we should touch on election activity down south: In the Mexico election fiasco, the BFC (Bush, Fox, Calderon) forces have done everything they can to get results accepted as "counted". But no: today a partial recount gets underway.  Mind you, this is only a partial recount.  "Pssst! Hey muchacho! Wanna buy some voting machine software?"

Royal Taps

A British reporter and others are being held in connection with reported efforts to tape Prince Charles' telephone.

Spy for Israel?

There's a report that a US Navy sailor is being held in prison for spying for Israel. Let me go into a writing trance....hmmm... an old saying comes to mind... ah yes... "With friends like this, who needs..."

Meantime, there's a report out today that George Bush has over-ruled Condi on how the US should conduct relations with Israel.  Condi wants Bush to stop being so pro-Israel,

"Purple Passions Perplex People"

We see reports today that US forces that engaged in raping and killing in Iraq were high on booze and cough syrup.  This is worthy of notice because the color of Iraqi cough syrup is what?  Purple.

If we're reading the time maps from www.halfpasthuman.com right, this should about end the period we've been in which linguistically figured as "purple passions perplex people."  The period started with the rock group Deep Purple's decision about their tour to Lebanon, and this late "purple passion" revelation should see the color fading back into the noise floor of human discussions.

Like it's 1995

A long-time reader says that if you want to read a really good review of how the Fed "blew it" in the middle of the 1990's and set the stage for the tech/internet and then housing bubbles, click here.

Public Faces of AOL Searchers

The New York Times reports in a dynamite piece today on how easy it was for them to put a name to an AOL searcher who was supposed "protected" by a searcher ID number. 

Circumcision Lowers AIDS Risk?

That's the report out of the UK this morning.

Tuesday August 8, 2006

Fed Pauses

Release Date: August 8, 2006 For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. Economic growth has moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices. Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand. Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.

The Gingrich "Insurgency"

As the web bot project has been pointing out in the linguistic equivalent of flashing lights and sirens, we are expecting to see a "pogrom" and some serious political repression emerging in the US this fall as the BCRN (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Neocons) faction promote staying in Iraq at any cost. 

As another one of the "build up steps" to fulfillment of this fascistic sounding prediction, we read with great concern the headlines this morning that Newt Gingrich is telling Fox News that there is a "legitimate insurgency in Connecticut" which Gingrich goes on to describe in terms that make it clear that the faux republicans in power plan to spin as anti-America.

While the obvious "top layer" of this is Newt using his voice to try and whip up some republicorp frenzy for the (Lieberman) senate campaign, we see something much more sinister at work here: the pretender republicans (who forget the balanced budget, small central government and other central tenets of conservatism) laying the groundwork for genuine widespread political repression this fall before the "elections." 

This is a new low in crooked-talk electioneering politics of the worst kind. What about Constitutionally guaranteed free speech?  If Newt hears insurgents, we hear jackboots.

A Difficult Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve meets today amidst expectations that they will "stand pat" on interest rates and will let the economy coast along here for a while, as the inflationary pressures and deflation concerns seem about evenly matched.  As Business Day notes, "The Federal Research must treat cautiously."  If they don't the economic system might collapse under some unusual pressures.  For instance:

• The cost of the R&R Wars (religion and resources) are staggering.  In order to keep paying for the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and to some small degree, Israel's war with Lebanon/Hezbollah, the US needs to continue running huge budget deficits.  That, from Econ 101 we remember requires someone to buy our "paper assets" - a class of investment that's in trouble later this year, as we see it. As I scan the op-ed pages, there's a growing link between war, budgets, and oil costs.

• Another developing stress point, which doesn't get as much media coverage, but it's just as real and from a fundamental analysis standpoint, and every bit as import, is resource depletion.  Whether we're talking about declining tuna stocks in Fiji - a precursor to the global fisheries collapse later this year, or whether we're talking signs of ozone depletion, the largely corporate-driven resource grabs have had (and will continue to have) increasing costs to be paid by humans. With interest.

• The state of the housing bubble is also a concern, especially since it was just a bit more than a week ago that the National Association of Realtors announced that the country had transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Curiously, discussion of the housing bubble in news search engine results have declined markedly (disappeared) since then..

USA Today sees it very much like I do - no matter what the Fed does, there will be someone who won't be happy.  My expectation is that the Fed may raise one more time  (65% chance as I see it) today because they have, to frame it like a TV Western plot, some cover to hide behind.

That "cover" could be the shutting down of the Alaska Pipeline for corrosion repairs.  While the pipeline might be offline for months, any economic fallout from a Fed raise today could be blamed on the "unexpected consequences of the pipeline shutdown" later this year.  Come the August Fed meeting, there might not be such a convenient rock to hide behind.

Russia's Borders

I'm still expecting there to be a flare up in Eastern Europe this year, as there is a lot of movement going on in former Soviet Republics.  Last week, you'll recall that we had problems reported in Georgia.  And now, we have discussion of whether the Ukraine should join up with NATO.

Cuban Confusion

With so much of the US's military might on assignment overseas, I was shocked by the administration saying 'we won't invade Cuba but..." Now there is some talk that the US may ease Cuban migration rules, but that could be mainly to allow Cuban doctors in.  

I don't know what the gang that couldn't think straight is thinking.  If you look at the US-created mess in Iraq, it might be argued that the very last thing democratic peoples would want these days is to be "rescued" by US intervention.  Besides, as a taxpayer, I'm waiting to see how our current "adventures" turn out.

9/11 Wreckage

Apparently some of the 9/11 wreckage is starting to appear.  Wouldn't it be interesting to do some chemical testing?

AOL Apology

AOL is saying 'sorry 'bout that' for posting 20-million keyword searches done by their subscribers.  No personally identifiable information, we're reassured.  But with "repression" predicted by the web bot project for later this month, we have to wonder about the security of searches.

Speaking of Big Brother, there are now 30-million surveillance cameras in the USA.  I can hardly wait for DHS to come up with a SETI-like dispersed processing plan to let people watch tapes and home.  Otherwise, it seems unlikely that all 4-billion hours a week will be watched...

But, it's not like Big Brother and the Constitution-busting Patriot Act are limited to the US.  In Hong Kong, a new surveillance law is causing concern. 

Then there's the State of Maine, which found itself being threatened with a federal lawsuit if they went after Verizon to release details of their relationship with NSA on cell phone surveillance. But let's not talk about that...don't want to end up on a pogrom list this fall when more repression arrives.

More Money at Wal-Mart

Wal-Mart is planning to raise starting pay somewhat.  Wal-Mart's average fulltime wage is $10.11 an hour.  I wonder what it is when executive comp is backed out?

Capitalist Tools

Forbes, which has branded itself the "capitalist tools" has been 40% acquired by a venture group. A group led by U2 vocalist Bono, no less.

Northwest Strike?

Airline flight attendants might go on strike against NWA next week.  That'd be interesting as I think I might be traveling. Ripple, ripple, bump, bump...

Speaking of airlines, there was an arrivals computer failure at LAX last night.  LAX is my least favorite airport on the planet.

Favorite? Tyler, Texas is my favorite by a Texas mile: Small, friendly, none of this 3+ hours of screwing around, reasonable parking and a to-die-for restaurant (as airport eateries go) run by the Edom Bakery folks.  It's great.  You show up an hour plus before flight time, check in, have a wonderful breakfast, and off you go.  As civilized travel should be. 

"D" as in Diesel

But not in "D" as in Denver.  Diesel in short supply in Colorado. Sorry, can't blame BP on this one - the shortage was reported before the pipeline shut down.

Current Events and Monkey Mind

Today and tomorrow we are in two days which have been highlighted by the www.halfpasthuman.com web bot project as "emotional release days."  In the parlance of Cliff (and his assistant Igor) this means a period where we are likely to see events (or an event) that will constitute a major emotional "event" that will grab headlines and change the ways things are.  The problem of course is "What's it going to be?"

The "time monks" have made it very clear to me that I'm a victim of what they call "monkey mind" and that I am terribly prone to seeking simple clear cut answers to complex questions raised by having at least some sense of the future.  A bit of laughter usually follows about my fixation on finding a single "event" and off they go into their world of SQL, spiders, radical linguistics, archetype imagery, nei kung, and preparing for a much simpler life, which by their reckoning will be here far too soon.

Picturing their future imagery, a world 100- to 10,000 times more tense/stressful, and difficult than the combined impacts of hurricanes Rita and Katrina, and you get a sense of what's ahead.  Revolution/rebellion breaking into global consciousness at the end of this month, big earth movement/quakes and a "coastal" event this fall, and then a major attack on Israel in December. Their point is that I worry too much about the "dailies" and not enough about the "long term."

Someone asked me just yesterday why Cliff and Igor weren't fabulously wealthy from use of the time-predictive technology?  Sadly, in answering, I started to sound like "time monk lite." "Money doesn't matter as much as you think..." I began.

Buckminster Fuller had a very curious way of looking at wealth.  To him, the measure of wealth was not how much paper with how many zeroes on it one could accumulate, that matters.  Rather, he measured wealth in terms of forward survival you control and can lay your hands on - which simplifies to "If everything hit the BIG FAN today, how long could you last and what would your life be like?"

Judged by those measures, those involved with the project are fabulously wealthy.  We've been boning up on skills that could make a "life or death" difference in a world hit with sudden, mind-numbing change from unexpected quarters.  Beyond the obvious storing of food, ammo, getting good walking shoes, and the like, I find myself collecting "boot strapping" books like those of Vince and David Gingery, that explain in detail how to build a complete machine shop from scrounged parts. Knowledge preservation has turned into a hobby, acquiring this week "Workshop Receipts" a late 1800's book on things mechanized and "homesteady."

So forgive me if for the next 72-hours I am on "event watch." True, the time monks could be right - this "release period" could be like a large but gentle wave that will roll through the global consciousness.  But, I don't think so.

Monday August 7, 2006

Oily Mess.

"Boil, bubble, oil and trouble..."  Almost sounds like a witches brew, doesn't it?  This week our Peoplenomics.com  in depth report asks a very interesting question: Has a Die Off (of humans) started?  While you might initially be thinking "Oh, there goes George again, off on one of his rants..." consider the conversation I had with a leading energy consultant yesterday.

Jeffrey Brown (selection of his articles from Energy Bulletin) has contributed a lot of thinking to the study of Peak Oil and he notes that "Most people don't realize that world oil output this year (crude plus condensates) is down 1% - and that's year to date.  What's more, Saudi Arabia crude plus condensate is down 7%."  That's a very sobering thought.

By Brown's figuring, Saudi Arabia's output is now doing the predictable peak-then-decline that beset Texas after 1972.  To take it further, he sees "The Lower 48 peaked in 1970. I think that the world peaked in 2005.  Further, I think that the world is now where the Lower 48 was at in 1971--the first year of the Lower 48 decline."  If you want to look up the historical data, you might want to do it after eating, because the implications are staggering.

All of which likely explains why the BCRN  group (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Neocons) is pushing a US resource grab in the Middle East as hard as they can. 

Supply Side: Alaska Shuts Down

The big news item today dealing with oil is the shut down of all of Prudhoe Bay, announced Sunday by BP because of an oil pipeline leak and corrosion problems.  This will take 400,000 barrels a day off global production.  More important, if you look at things from an economic perspective, as I do, is that this will take down 8% of the US oil production.  Granted, while a lot of the North Slope oil goes to overseas partners, this is one of those numbers that will come back to (pardon this)  "bite us in the ass" in the Balance of Trade payments several months down the road.  Already this morning, we have seen $77 exceeded and I wouldn't be surprised to see $85 in the next week, or two.  Perhaps $100 by mid-September.  And that's without the Arabs doing anything but pumping for all they're worth.

Again, this is doubly or triply bad not only because of what it will do to the Balance of Trade, but it also places an additional pressure on the Fed that is supposed to decide tomorrow on interest rates.  If we lose 8% of our oil production, then the US may be forced to raise rates despite the recessionary impacts, in order to maintain an orderly marketplace.  Remember: The Federal Reserve's mission is to maintain stability.

I suppose that you've had enough coffee this morning to know that a few weeks back, when Britain is setting record temperatures this week, that it's more evidence of "global warming" and this is not a trivial problem for BP, which has a lot of its oil pipeline infrastructure sitting on what used to be permafrost. 

It may have passed you by last week that there has been such crumbling of the Alps mountain range that the Swiss are now doing permafrost mapping to figure out where their next natural disaster in 'them thar hills' will be.

This whole issue of oil supplies coming on line could be skewed by global warming.  Another example (besides the dangers posted to the Alyeska line, is the planned Russian pipeline from Eastern Siberia to the Pacific. Sure, it's only 125-miles, but it's in an area where there's permafrost.  Or, as we sadly point out, used to be permafrost.

Not that global warming will halt the Alaska pipe permanently (at least yet) but permafrost melting will impact everything from oil, to high altitude train operations in some of the mountains parts of China/Tibet.

As geologist Brown told me, "There's not much that can be done now, except ELP."  "What's that?" I asked?

"Economize, localize, and produce." I had to agree - those are the steps that make sense, but it runs counter to what you're blasted with by television, 24-7.  As Brown points out in one of his articles, that's because of the interlocking corporate interests of "The Iron Triangle".  That what?

"In regard to efforts to deny the reality of Peak Oil, I have previously described what I call the "Iron Triangle," which I define as: (1) most auto, housing and finance companies; (2) most of the mainstream media and (3) most major oil companies, major oil exporters and the energy analysts that work for the major oil companies and major oil exporters.

In my opinion, the Iron Triangle has a vested interest in denying the reality of Peak Oil, and they are, in effect, working together to encourage Americans to continue buying large vehicles, in order to continue driving large distances to and from large mortgages."

Until we see some cracks in the Iron Triangle, Brown ELP idea will continue to be painted (like many of the view here) as somehow "out there."  But, in the longer view, I expect Brown will be deadly right, so you can adjust now while you can dictate the terms, or you can try to cobble out a personal ELP plan when most of America will be in competition with you and resources much more dear due to post-peak oil economics..

A reader asked this morning if the Alaska Pipeline shutdown might be the "event" around August 8/9 that the web bots predicted.  A $10 bump in crude prices in the next day or two would sure hurt - along with the corresponding fall in equities. Still, I think not, because it it may not be big enough - at least yet.  However, if it goes on to cause a ton of carnage in the financial markets, like a mini-crash or something like that, yes it would fit.  But I still have a weather eye open for something else.

Supply Side War

When you start to look closely consider the societal impacts of Peak Oil, then it becomes clear that the BCRN approach, namely war for resource, is not wholly without merit.  At least on paper, it keeps the economy going (especially if you invest in death producers), and it postpones the problems and builds family fortunes along the way. So, in the context of the supply side nightmares, we can sketch out this morning's headlines in the "resource and religion wars" context this way:

• The US and France have run into opposition on the draft UN resolution.  So look for additional drafts later today.

• Meantime, both Hezbollah and Israel have stepped up attacks on each other.  We're waiting for what the web bot project predicts will be partying and "mission accomplished" kind of talk when the shooting stops later this month.  Should be quite the media show. Stay tuned.

• Iran is threatening to use its oil weapon (5% of global supplies, roughly) if the UN doesn't lighten up on proposed nuclear development sanctions.

• Gas pipeline dreams for Afghanistan continue to be dream as the Taliban threatens more suicide bombings.

• Syria and Middle East media are widely reporting the outcome of Israeli bombings in northern Lebanon, including the deaths of 23 people in a warehouse bombing in Lebanon.

A reader who lives in Israel, sent along this  first-hand report of what it's like to be in northern Israel with rockets raining down:

"dateline: Kiryat Tivon, Israel

Went shopping in HAIFA this morning--all the shopkeepers complaining about 'weak business'

Headed north into 'kiryot' area, NORTH of HAIFA, spent 20 minutes in a hardened miklat (bombshelter) at the hardware store

Returned HAIFA, supermarket MEGA (normally jammed) nearly empty

Returned TIVON to the news that 10 soldiers killed in KATYUSHA attack, and to a 'special warning' for TIVON residents to go to MIKLAT

CITIZENS support the soldiers to the nth degree, and the government decision to go to war

However, most prefer to stay at or near home, business confidence non-existent."

Sri Lanka's Resource War

It's not like it's the Litani River (in south Lebanon) but we do note that water (one of those "resources") has become an issue in another semi-religious war.  This one in Sri Lanka where the Tamil Tgiers are set on changing government.

The Planet Strikes Back

While the humans (like you and me) try to sort out the messiness of Monday, the planet itself is introducing the usual number of "unexpected variables" into events. In Ethiopia, several hundred people have been killed in flooding.  And in the Philippines, the Mayon volcano seems read to 'go St. Helens' with a massive eruption. 

If we get this eruption tomorrow or Wednesday, that would make for quite a "release events" especially if it were to be significantly larger than expected.  I mean something between a St. Helens and a Krakatoa might fit.  Depends how many people it kills, and what the media coverage is like, but if I were an assignment editor for a global press outfit, I would have cameras and choppers at the ready on this one, expecting the unexpected.

Although there's not much press on the US drought, meanwhile, there are reports here and there about the economic fallout, such as in the North Dakota report.

Mexico's Fate

As expected the Fox-Calderon influenced decision on Mexico's recent elections came out - and no recount.  So, Lopex Obrador (think of his as the Al Gore of Mexico, which looks suspiciously like a replay of 2004 Florida) says the protests will continue...

A reader in Mexico sends this:

"Hello friend George!

Back to my computer for news - which means reading Urban Survival, of course, among other sites (Kitco Forum is dissolved for some mysterious reasons, and a great loss to me and perhaps to many others).

I read some comments on U.Survival, on Mexico, here are my comments on the comments:

The "narcotraficantes". Apparently some people think that this is a species that only inhabits South of the Border. Please think for a moment: if we have problems with "narcotraficantes" it is because our government has to at least try to combat them, otherwise it would be severely condemned by US Establishment.

Are there NO "narcotraficantes" in the US, with close to 300 million inhabitants? No one seems to want to ask themselves this question. Can anyone who is using his head believe that the US is the world's number one consumer of drugs (now called "recreational" (!!) drugs by the medical establishment) without the job getting done by means of these gangsters? How come there are no "narcotraficantes" battling the US Gov't? Naturally, because there is no "war" against them. (Just against the little people).

Only South of the Border do we have these vermin. Excuse me, but that is typical Puritan hypocrisy!!  (Ed note: I didn't mean to imply that Mexico alone had a lock on crooked drug dealers!  We have our own, even in D.C....)

We had a good President, Diaz Ordaz (1964-1970), who replied to a US representative's comment that "Mexico is the springboard for drugs into the U.S." with the answer: "If we are the springboard, you are the swimming pool!".

About the "National Guard" doing something about the drug lords if allowed into Mexico - that is simply laughable. The N.G. might have the best weapons, but - they would surely get severely roasted if they tried anything as foolish as that. Guaranteed! Please, banish such a thought. You don't want another Iraq down here...

By the way, the Mexican Congress and Senate passed a law decriminalizing low levels of drug possession, in order to have a clearer focus on those people who are profiting from the business, and guess what? The President, bowing TO US PRESSURE, refused to sign the bill into Law. So, lots of people who are no account in the business, will get put away for years. The Pres had been in favor of the bill, but one phone call changed his mind.

It is IN THE INTEREST OF THE US, to have our government fighting the drug business, as that helps keep prices high and profitable. For the "non-existent" Narcs in the US.

We have a serious political problem here at present. We have a willful man who feels he was cheated of the Presidency. Who knows, maybe he was, maybe he wasn't.

In the end, it will be six of one and half a dozen of the other, as both claimers to the Presidency will continue to take Mexico down the road to serfdom. One by selling out to the US financiers, the other by destroying the economy with socialistic measures. What difference? "

401-K Changes

Speaking of serfdom (only here in the US) Lot's of discussion of about coming 401-K changes, you might want to be aware of. 

Fed Bet

Tomorrow, the Fed is supposed to decide on rates.  My present bet is 65% for an increase (citing the Euro bank increases and the Alaska pipeline oil/impact on BOT) and 35% for a hold (which would be based on weakness in the economy developing.  I realize that this is a change of sea state, so markets should be very choppy today as all this gets sorted out.

News from Elliott Wave International

The Web UrbanSurvival Only

On to Our Chart!

Instead of our customary chart, this week you get a free peak at one of our other charts from www.peoplenomics.com - this is our "Global Markets Equally Weighted" chart:

Write when you get rich,

George Ure, The People's Economist