Bombs?  What Bombs?

Credit where due this weekend to David Ickes' web site which goes into some detail about why the recently "foiled" terrorist attacks may have been nothing more than a false flag operation.

Then we had a plane diverted on Friday because of a note being found onboard.  No bomb, of course.

I'd remind you, if you're worried about airplane rides due to all the hype, that the safest flights are likely those between 10 PM and 6 AM Eastern Time.  Why?  A serious plane incident would be timed for maximum media exposure, not while folks are sawing zzz's.

German authorities are looking into a couple of "suitcase bombs" that failed to detonate a few weeks back. Thinking is they were part of a plot. Duh

Meantime, it was a somewhat grumpy sounding George Bush who was on CSPAN on Friday saying that the "country is at war" and he directed the immediate appeal this week of a federal court decision that would ban electronic surveillance without judicial oversight.

Oh yes, I should mention that "al Qaida" is threatening to blow up the Taj Mahal.  But wait!  The threat letter was in Hindi...

Iran War Games

Start today. They're selling it to the press as a "new defensive doctrine." It's really a message to the neocons. who have been a bit hard of thinking lately.

Ford Cuts

Tired of losing money, Ford is cutting production by 20% and planning other cost reducing moves.

This isn't the part where I stand up and ask "Why wasn't anyone in Detroit looking at Peak Oil and inventing "better-than-Prius" hybrids and high mileage cars when we had time?"  That was back in the 1990's we were asking and Detroit was (and still is) asleep.

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Delphi (ex GM) is also cutting 6,300 jobs.

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Not just cars slowing.  Boeing is planning to close their C-17 Long Beach operation.

MS Buyback

With Microsoft stock up 4.4% yesterday (and accounting for a good chunk of the Dow advance this week, we have a question about timing.  Isn't this about when outgoing MS execs were planning to offload some stock?

Fed Pressure

While we await the next meeting of the US "Federal" Reserve (which is neither), we have to point out that the Chinese Central Bank has raised interest rates this week.

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Talk about contrasts: Chinese housing prices are reported up 5.7% in July (YoY). And while that's going on, some are saying that California Housing Prices could drop as much as 20% betwixt now and 2008.  Our own work suggests a lot more, at least if measured by purchasing power.

Peoplenomics

Consumption Hypnosis

Hold on a minute.  Before you go any further into this week's report, let me lay some incredibly interesting numbers on you. In 2004, I figure General Motors spent more than $13 for every man, woman, and child in the USA, trying to convince folks to buy G.M. products.  $13.61 to be a bit more exact - using advertising figures from the Advertising Age magazine 2006 FactPack  [page 8] and the Fact Monster estimate of US population from 2004. As you might have guessed by now, our topic this week is steely-eyed look at advertising hype.  Or, what I call "tools of consumer hypnosis."  By the time we get through this report, I think you'll see that in the very near future, something's got to give.   {Subscriptions are $30/year, click here to join)

The Peoplenomics site should be back up within 24-hours...

Cheap ≠ Thrift

Quality does matter sometimes - that's one of the lessons in our ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less" available for just $10 at our Peoplenomics bookstore.

Por Favor

Please click here and send an email to as many of your friends as you have (both?) telling them about this site.  Now that I'm on a new server, we've got more bandwidth...

Friday August 18, 2006

Freedom Rings - Kind Of...

To the occasional reader that whines "You never talk about anything good that happens," I'll make the exception now and then when something really good happens. A federal Judge has ruled the administration's warrantless wiretapping program to be unconstitutional, a move which is being widely applauded.

Sadly, it's not all good news:  The administration has filed an immediate appeal, and is also planning to go ahead with the unlawful, unconstitutional surveillance program, apparently thinking they are smarter and exceptions to what our founding fathers and 230-years of Constitutional law have held: This is a country of government by the people not a soft dictatorship over the people.

By my reckoning - and you're welcome to disagree with me - when someone takes an oath of office to uphold the great Constitution when they take the oath of office, it's not "I'll uphold the parts I like, and change those parts I don't..."  Yet, in numerous cases, the present pack of pretenders in DC has strayed from the small government, balanced budget, Constitutional Rights, and transparency that true Patriots wouldn't have a problem with.

Instead, we see George Bush and cohorts selling out American through it's "agreements" they're hammering out right now to end our distinct separation from Mexico - and avoid Constitutionally mandated Congressional approval of all treaties.  (See www.spp.gov for details).

Ignoring the oath is serious business and I expect most Americans won't stand for it.  So, I will give you two predictions.  First, the administration will appeal to the US Supreme Court and once there, we will see if hair trigger Dick's duck hunting buddy and his colleagues will rule for the people or whether they will endorse the "soft" benevolent dictatorship and thus show themselves to be a kangaroo court or a respected Constitutional Judicial Branch.. The second prediction is that 2008's elections are already in trouble because I think I know how prediction #1 will go.

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If I was the lone voice of concern on Constitutional preservation, you'd likely be correct in assigning me the "nut job moniker"; but I'm not.  Michael Ruppert of "From the Wilderness" and author of "Crossing the Rubicon" spells out his reasons for leaving the USA in an article "By the Light of a Burning Bridge"  - it's worth a read.

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For this morning, I'll just conclude that Judge Anna Diggs Taylor, who made the ruling against warrantless surveillance (and without legally required FISA Court oversight) deserves a phone call, telegram or email of support.  Clear cut support of our Constitution in the face of powerful challenges takes chutzpah - and we thinking Taylor made the correct decision.  Our thanks.

NK Bomb Test

There's a report out today saying North Korea is moving resources about in a manner suggesting they might be about to try an underground atomic test.

Volcano

A big eruption in Ecuador this week of a volcano.  The BBC reports one person dead, and lots of evacuations.  But this doesn't sound like the earthquake/destroyed city in Central America (south of Mexico, north of Panama, expected this fall by the www.halfpasthuman.com web bot project.

Juarez Woman Killers

The US embassy in Mexico reports there's been a major break in the rape/killings of young women in the Ciudad Juarez (South El Paso) area.  Unfortunately, the suspect in custody now is only part of a larger gang believed responsible for the deaths of several hundred women in Mexico.

Israel 22, Lebanon 1

Good story in the Boston Globe this morning about how 22 CONgresspersons have been to Israel since the fighting/shooting/bombing started with Lebanon.  Only one member of CONgress has been to Lebanon. Bravery at the rear...isn't. That happens at the front.

"Sanctioned By"?

There are two ways to read the reports that the plot to blow up 10-aircraft flying toward the US were "sanctioned by" al Qaida. One way is to take the report at face value.  The other is to wonder if there's not less evidence, so more innuendo is needed to help the case - which is being tried by the press right now.

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Meantime, budget-minded Ryanair is threatening to sue the UK government over the travel restriction that were imposed after the "plot" was discovered.  The government is already being sued by British Airways for lost business.

Tripped Out

Here in the U.S. airline travel hasn't been too bad.  Just back from my Tyler, Texas- Dallas, Burbank, Seattle-Houston, Tyler jaunt this week, I was pleased as punch with the airline travel part.  The check-in at Tyler, a modern overbuilt facility with perhaps 300 passengers a day through it, was no-waiting two hours before flight time. Dallas was fine, too.

In Burbank, the old check-in signs that read "You're 15-minutes from the security checkpoint" had not been recalibrated since the increased wait time.  But TSA was quick.  Seattle had nearly non-existent lines when we checked in at 10:30 PM for our red-eye on Continental at 1:00 AM.

Houston's the odd duck: If you come in on a big plane and go out on a puddle jumped from Terminal A, you have to check through security again. But, being puddle jumper heaven at Terminal A, the lines were short.

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I found the red-eye very comfortable, although Elaine didn't.  I apparently moved my left arm in my sleep which landed a half glass of ice water in her lap.  Continental's front end crew was helpful and understanding. E was pleased we had upgraded to First Class - the leather seat dried more quickly than a fabric seat in coach would have.

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The time in Seattle was too short.  I didn't have time to even have coffee with good friends.  It was a whirlwind of staying in Tacoma, eating in Tacoma (El Gaucho, crab cocktail #1) sleep, rush-hour driving, seeing my 90-year old mother (Renton), my little sister (Renton), lunching with two of my three kids (Ivar's Acres of Clams, crab cocktail #2), visiting daughter #2 at her Pike Place Market job, more driving, shipping things from Tacoma to the ranch, dinner at Johnny's Dock (crab cocktail #3),. and then back to the airport.

All this, in itself, should have left time for friends, but it didn't.  Because of our server hacks last weekend, every other second was spent rebuilding web sites.  As you know, both www.peoplenomics.com and www.urbansurvival.com are on a new server farm now.  I'm leaving the www.independencjournal.com site at the previous ISP because in the event Urban ever goes down, I will be able to post advisories over there on a different server farm, in a different state, etc.  This week has been a no-sleep nightmare, but this morning I've had some sleep so back to continuing the subscriber recovery work.

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It was also very interesting at Johnny's Dock when conversation with relatives turned to "Do you guys miss living on your sailboat up here?" Curiously, neither one of us did.  I did my 10-years before the mast, and about the only thing that would be challenging now would be a round-the-world jaunt.  Offshore?  The Strait of Juan de Fuca?  Hah!  Been there, done that.  Elaine, I think mostly remembers cold and a lack of room for shoes. 

Nevertheless, I was reminded that I have a whole portfolio of memories from the decade of sailing - mostly wonderful, I might add.  I mention this because I've got this sense that even though we can't "take money with us when we die," we can take memories.  And measured that way, I feel richer than most billionaires. So for record, if you want immortality, have kids.  And if you "want to take it with you when you die," take lot's of memories. 

And remember, few business people on their death bed with their last gasp say "Gee, I wish I had time to finish just one more spreadsheet before my ticker gives out..."  So make good memories as quickly as you can while you can still fog a mirror.

Dell Earning Cut

Looks like second quarter earnings at Dell are down by 50% from year ago levels reports MarketWatch.  Dell's got an uphill battle over its battery recall still ahead of it.

Thursday August 17, 2006

Delayed Report

Because I'm on a wifi connection at the Houston Airport (and I've been up all night traveling a red-eye down here from Seattle), this morning's report will be delayed.

Good news: I did get the Peoplenomics.com site back up except for people who subscribed after August 6 to present - I will get these back up this afternoon.

Check back - I will try to get some notes up prior to boarding on our "puddle jumper" which takes off for Tyler, TX shortly.

Monster

OK, if you've been watching the news, the headline is the JonBenet case.  But to me, one of the most interesting stories out of the mainstream is a report from Maine that a real mutant monster has been found.  Killed by a car - and perhaps the source of local legends.  This is the kind of stuff that makes great reading.

The question: was it a natural mutation or something that escaped from a lab?

Lebanon "Unjustified"

Not me saying it - Former President Jimmy Carter.  Occasionally, a reader will confuse message and messenger...

WOT: Plane Expensive

The British authorities are apparently going to be sued by airlines for $1/2 billion due to the busted "terror plot."  While current information is still sparse in terms of charges and such, a lot of folks just sitting around airports seem to be saying things like "Too close to US elections" to be real.

Brawling Peaceniks

So, you got your peace protest.  Then you got your brawling Buddhist monks. We're going to have peace if we have to kill each other, huh?

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boarding ttyl

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Tiring CONsumer?

The Fed came out with the Industrial Production number this morning - and if my eyes aren't fooling me again, it looks like the consumer may be starting to tire a bit.  Check this out:

The output of consumer goods decreased 0.3 percent in July, as a decline in the output of consumer durable goods more than offset an increase in the production of nondurable consumer goods. Within consumer durable goods, a drop of 6.2 percent in the output of automotive products was due mostly to a decrease in the production of autos and light trucks. Assemblies of light vehicles dropped from an annual rate of 11.2 million units in June to 10.2 million units in July. The index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting decreased 0.7 percent, whereas the indexes for both home electronics and miscellaneous goods registered gains. The production of consumer nondurable goods rose 0.8 percent for a second consecutive month. In July, the index for non-energy nondurable consumer goods increased 0.6 percent, and gains in the sector were widespread. The production of consumer energy products advanced 1.6 percent but was down 0.6 percent from its year-ago level.

The production of business equipment moved up 1.1 percent in July and was up 12.2 percent from its year-ago level. Increases in the production of information processing equipment and of industrial and other equipment more than offset a drop in the output of transit equipment. The production of defense and space equipment moved up 0.7 percent. The output of construction supplies rose 0.5 percent in July and was up 6 percent from its year-ago level. The index for business supplies advanced 0.6 percent, its fifth consecutive monthly gain.

If you've been reading this site for long (or you have a checkbook) you may have already figured out that people are dipping into their savings to make ends meet.  So whether that savings is cash in the bank, or another refi on your home, it's two sides of the same sword.

CPI Numbers

First things first: The Department of Labor is out with the latest CPI report this morning.  We were sort of expecting it to be "in line" (0.3 - 0.4% for the month) based on the market's 132 point pop yesterday.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The July level of 203.5 (1982-84=100) was 4.1 percent higher than in July 2005.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.3 percent in July, prior to seasonal adjustment. The July level of 199.2 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in July 2005.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in July on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The July level of 117.6 (December 1999=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in July 2005. Please note that the indexes for the post-2004 period are subject to revision. (Care to guess why? - I think of it as foxes counting chickens...and the foxes needed to count...er...feathers instead in a few places...Also the "old weights comparison stopped with the June report last month... G)

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.4 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent rise in June. Energy costs, which declined 0.9 percent in June, advanced 2.9 percent in July. Within energy, the index for petroleum based energy increased 5.0 percent and the index for energy services rose 0.1 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July,

The report then goes on to confess that yes, inflation is really running just under 5% - and that's if you buy government counting which includes "hedonic adjustments."  Like ground sirloin tastes the same as top sirloin, that kind of thing.

During the first seven months of 2006, the CPI-U rose at a 4.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2005. The index for energy, which rose 17.1 percent in 2005, advanced at a 25.3 percent SAAR in the first seven months of 2006. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 52.8 percent annual rate while charges for energy services fell at a 2.5 percent annual rate. The food index has increased at a 2.1 percent SAAR thus far this year, following a 2.3 percent rise for all of 2005. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 3.1 percent SAAR in the first seven months, following a 2.2 percent rise for all of 2005.

One nice thing about the report is that the government report touts that inflation is running 4.5% based on a three month rolling average.

Our calculations show something a little different.  If you were to run a four month average you'd find that inflation annualizes to 4.9% - thanks to a big pop up in May (0.6%).  Since January, prices have gone up 2.8% an for the first half of the year, inflation is up 4.9%.

So what's the point?  Well, when the boss comes in and says "I got you a 5% salary increase!" stare at them coldly and ask "Is that before or after inflation?"  A 5% hike (you're more productive, right?) means your wages should go up 9.9% - that's if your company is as honest as the government.  Ha!

Resource War: Crab

The Japanese aren't very happy this morning with Russia, after the Russians fired guns on a crab boat that was fishing in disputed territorial waters.  One crab fisherman is dead, and we see this as yet more evidence of how as resources become more dear, bullets will become more plentiful.

Syrian Rhetoric

Syria is painting an interesting picture for those willing to listen: They are they selling the idea that their support of Hezbollah stopped the American / neocon plan for a New Middle East - and being critical of their fellow Arab nations that didn't side up quickly and firmly with Hezbollah.  Reaction to this is Israel?  Predictable: "Many Arabs, sadly, see things Assad's way" opines the Jerusalem Post.

British Justice

One of our readers today asks how it is that British Intelligence (sic) can home in on people supposedly making explosive toothpaste or whatever, yet a genocide suspect has been living in their country since 1994?

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Also on the British justice front, we can't help but mention it took only 90-years to get around to pardoning 309 soldiers who were executed by the Brits for refusing to go back to the trenches in World War I.  My lawyerly friends would probably mutter "justice delayed is justice denied," but I won't...

Air Tension Lite

However, as long as I'm picking on the British, we do hear that British Airways is threatening to sue the British Airports Authority for its handling of the "ten plane terror plot" last week which has cost BA hundreds of canceled flights.

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In terms of travel delays here in the US, I have to say the talk of having people show up three hours early for their flights seems like it might be one way to improve airline on time performance.  The security line on my Burbank to Seattle flight yesterday had some folks waiting in line for more than an hour - the signs reading "your wait from this point is 15 minutes" have obviously not been recalibrated.

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I happened to be seated between to rather attractive females (both blonde) and they complained that they got the "extra security" at the airport.  Why they wondered?  My Guess?  It probably had more to do with making last-minute reservations and a ticket with the "SSS" (extra security check) on it than their looks.  At least that's the view of a 57 year old, slightly overweight business-looking guy who was able to sail right through.

Oil Spill

The biggest in the history of the Philippines is being cleaned up, but that could take two years, and maybe more.

Poll:  Faster, or Slower?

Now that I have moved the Urban Survival site to a new server, the most important question is this:  Is it faster or slower than the previous server farm?

Click here for faster                        or   Click here for slower

Peoplenomics Access

Still working to recover from that part of the hack - expect it to be back up today.  Issues with the password file...

Tuesday August 15, 2006

From Beautiful Downtown Burbank

Well, let's see - life has been a blur the past couple of days.  First off, the hack attack on Monday in the early AM - then a frantic bout of phone calls with my ISP, then overnight when they recovered service, I discovered that their "freshest" backup of my site was made 2 weeks ago!  So later on today (or tonight) I will get all of the Peoplenomics.com subscribers back up. Provided I can once again start writing to that directory!

One of the big lessons of all this is that if you own a web site, you need to manage your own DNS servers - in my case, that allowed me to make a strategic decision this morning to swing my account from one server (where the hack occurred) for at least the urbansurvival site.

OK, what am I doing in Burbank?  Well, the producers of a television show about prediction, prophesy and the future asked me to talk about the web bot project.  Should air in October, or there about.

A few headlines for you in a sec, but the main thing right now is this is a fairly good time to make a whirlwind tour of the US.  As soon as the taping is done this morning, I'm off to Seattle to see what Elaine and her youngest son have gotten done remodeling his condo.  A spend some time with my 90 year old mother, and then lunch with my kids, and then back to Texas tomorrow night on a red-eye.  (Whew!)

The nicest thing you could do right now would be send an email to every one of your friends and let them know UrbanSurvival.com is back up - hackers overcome.  Even if your friends don't read it, if they would just look at it once, today, then that will help propagate the new DNS server around the planet.   - thanks!

I guess when I think about it there are one of two reasons for such an attack.  One is that it was just a script-kiddy and the other was a little more nefarious - having something to do with the kind of news we report and our access to proprietary future-seeing software.  Don't much matter either way, we have our ways and as long as the net is up, we'll find a way to keep publishing.  Might take a day or two here and there, but WTF - that's life, huh?

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I will get an update on as soon as I can, but right now gotta get dressed and ready for the teevee stuff...

Illusions of Growth

OK, just one thing to ponder this morning as I have been watching the markets make huge intraday moves and then drop or show serious weakness toward the close.  Let's look at this week's trading with two views.  First, the "real" gain or loss and then what the "feel" of the week is designed to be - which is inferred by taking the morning open and comparing it with the intraday (during the day) highs. 

See a pattern here?  If you just catch the market around mid day, you'd hear anything from "Up 153 point!" down to "Up 17!".  But the reality is the closing price, unless you're a dyed-in-the-wool day trader.  As of yesterday it was a 44 point advance for the week, but with today's early action it is designed to make the retail trade (e.g. non program traders like you and me) feel like it's been a 374 point gainer and we better get in. 

Not.

Monday August 14, 2006

Hacked!

If you're a subscriber to www.peoplenomics.com, or visitor to www.urbansurvival.com,  please be patient with my internet service provider.  There has been a server hack that has taken down not only my server, but also the server for www.independencejournal.com.   Had to happen, sooner or later, though, because we can't have friends doing things like the web bot project up at www.halfpasthuman.com without drawing at least a bit of attention.

Somehow, this doesn't surprise me - and it's one of the reasons that when I set up passwords for the site I insist on having just the email address of the subscriber.  In this way, the most a hacker would ever get (like the crowd in control of the DNS server now, by the look of it, is an email address.

Here's a simple reason to have several layers of "personal security" in computing.  An email address for simple things, and a more complex 10-12 character letter, number and ASCII character password that rotates, for more complex matters.

I have left a message with my ISP overnight, and I imagine they will change their DNS server around (or the hackers may have gotten into one of the UNIX boxes, but at any rate, they should be able to restore service today - perhaps tomorrow at the latest.

In the meantime, current subscribers should be on the lookout for an email from me with both this week's report and the charts as a .PDF file.

Cease Fire

As we expected, a cease fire has been

 called for in the Israel-Lebanon conflict.  But before things were to settle down today, Sunday saw a a harsh day of fighting.  Also, as a side effect of the war, Israeli prime minister Olmert is under pressure from both the right and left.

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Telemarketing War:  One thing that has caught our eye is the way outbound telemarketing is being employed by the Israelis in Lebanon.  Wonder if Lebanon has something like the "national do-not-call register?"

Egyptian Round Up Done

Those 11 missing "students" from Egypt have all been rounded up by the Feds now. Takes 11 worries of the table - for now.

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A purported plan to attack the Mackinac Bridge has been uncovered - why a bridge?  Beats us...but then again, buying 80 cell phones at a time is a bit whacked, too...and an easy tipoff that yeah...something's not normal here.  Sheesh!

Blood Pressure Screening Next?
There's a report in the Wall Street Journal Online editions today that the security planners may have come up with a new way to spot a potential terrorist: check their blood pressure at the airport.  Will it work?  Let's just say I am skeptical.  Suppose you are in the boat I'm in today.  Up at 5 AM, find your web sites hacked, trying to clean the house and put fresh sheets on the bed, take out the garbage and then run to the airport to catch a flight, then up till 10 PM traveling.  Where would your blood pressure be?  See what I mean?  I'm skeptical...I probably eat too much salt and it's headed for nearly a hundred today.  Sweat, blood pressure?  Hah!

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On UK flights, people are super jittery.  One flight was turned around when a cell phone started ringing in the aircraft cabin. 

Buy Rubber

A report in India Daily says the world will run into a rubber shortage in 2010.  Our view is simple here: If there's anyone left, yeah, it could be a problem...

Shortages

Malaysian feds are going to sugar refineries to make sure that things are running full tilt to deal with the nation's sugar shortage.

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Our long-running (since March) check of the word "shortage" on the news search engine at Google has kicked back up over 13,000 returns again, after several weeks of languishing in the low 12,000 range.

News from Elliott Wave International

The Web UrbanSurvival Only

On to Our Chart!

Instead of our customary chart, this week you get a free peak at one of our other charts from www.peoplenomics.com - this is our "Global Markets Equally Weighted" chart:

Write when you get rich,

George Ure, The People's Economist