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Where's the Fear?

With the Dow making a short term moon shot, up more than 200 points, our worst fears about the market have been confirmed; namely that in the face of substantial evidence that a new recession is on the horizon, the market is laughing off facts.  On a day when the Fed head, Al Greenspan, was lecturing CONgress on how the nation's spending is in process of landing us all in the international poor house, the market blithely bounced up 200.

 

We don't expect that again today.  For one thing, there has not been enough fear evidenced in the market yet.  One of our gauges of market fear (rightly or wrongly) is the volatility index.  When we look at the long term view, it seems to us that high volatility marked the huge top in the market in 2000 - when the VIX regularly hit over 40.  Even with yesterday's action, the VIX ended under 15.  To our way of thinking, low VIX means complacency  and for a solid bottom to be in, we need to see real panic in the street and huge volume to boot.  When we see a VIX north of 40 and extreme volume, it's only then that we would wade into pretty much anything on the long side, assuming that someone asked our opinion.  Remember: We don't offer investment advice - just commentary on the markets which seem intent on following the patterns of the last great Depression, while stealthily stealing savings and lowering laborers lifestyles.  Like a frog being brought slowly to boil, it takes just a bit of concentration to see how we're being cooked.

 

Oh, I'm not alone in this.  Sources at Oppenheimer tell me market sage Carter Worth doesn't see a bottom yet, either: "Broadly speaking their are two types of bottoms: Scalping bearish to bullish reversals or a sharp V. 52 week lows were put in two ago days by numerous important big cap stocks, however the averages have not put in a 52 week low, and by our work this divergence does not produce V bottom." 

 

War Alternative

With the latest pitch for another $80 billion or so, we notice that total spending for the Iraq war - Bush's War - has climbed past the $300,000,000,000 mark.

 

Now, to repeat what we have calculated previously: Take $300,000,000,000 and divide it by the population of Iraq.  Which is:: 25,374,691 according to the CIA World Fact Book online.  As of today, it would have been way cheaper to give everyone in Iraq a check for $11,800 - which pencils out to about $40,000 per household, rather than going to war with the whole country when our problem was with a single leader.

 

If Saddam was such a bad guy, I figure a sniper team with a single .50 round could take him out from a safe distance - costing us a couple of bucks, but certainly not this.  One bullet and $40,000 per family of spending money, yeah, that might have been a lot cheaper...

 

Naturally, I'm sure folks will say "George is crazy - what about Saddam's rights?"  I would hasten to point out that Saddam doesn't seem to be on trial yet, and he has been locked up for how long with no trial?  If we're trying to show the world "how democracy is done right" I have to ask about the speedy trial concept, jury of peers, and, as long as we're at it, protection of Constitutional rights which were thrown out wholesale in the Patriot Act frenzy.

 

So,  in the end, the war is not about making economic sense, but rather using it as a fine tool of socioeconomic control, which is fine, as long as you see the game labeled clearly.

 

CGCC Watch

This weekend, there is an interesting earthquake window open on the 24th/25th, but even if we don't get a large quake in North America, the signs of sudden catastrophic global climate change are piling up.  We mentioned about the Antarctic ice sheet at some increased risk following the huge collision this week - and now comes word that the ice is melting faster than expected down under. What will it mean?  Rising sea level, for one thing.   An unbalancing of the planet on pole shift seems a little far fetched, but then again, the idea of 300,000 dying in a single earthquake seemed remote when we talked about that last September.

 

Hu's Koizumi

Well, Koizumi is the prime minister of Japan and Hu (not to be confused with who) is the president of China.  They are meeting in Indonesia this weekend to try and calm down some of the ultranationalist yelling about Japan's war crimes in WWII, something which has made headlines in recent weeks.

 

Peak Oil News & Blues

If you are still debating whether Peak Oil is real, you might want to click over to the piece in the British paper the Guardian today.  While some don't think Peak Oil is here yet, a growing number figure 2006 will be IT and what that will mean is the end of civilization as we know it.

 

Remember, Peak Oil doesn't mean out of oil, it just means that there is more demand that supply at current prices.

 

Speaking of which, oilman1@urbansurvival.com who works for an offshore oil outfit down on the Gulf, mentioned that: "Looks like another squeeze on supply is the lack of contractors to install pipelines and platforms. Our schedule is filling up fast for the year and into next. We are bidding at day rate and can't stop getting jobs. I have never seen a situation like this since I've been in the sector, but the old timers say it is like the 80s again."

 

Let me think back here - ah yes, wasn't the 1980's when we had inflation going nuts?

 

Clearly, the Bush folks better hurry up and bomb Iran back into the stone age because if Iran really opens their planned Iran Oil Exchange in March 2006, and denominate oil transactions in Euros, then it's the end of Western hegemony.  What the hell do you think Condi Rice is doing in Russia this week?  Certainly not what's reported.  She's working the Russian side of the pending Iran conflict...got it?

 

Bush: Market Pimp

We notice with amusement today how George Bush isn't picking tough audiences to pimp investing Social Security funds in bloated share prices.  Nope, instead he was out yesterday talking to Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers about it yesterday.

 

Psst:  A little secret here, but don't let on:  Did you notice how the market's big bounce yesterday just coincidentally came as Bush was hyping stocks?  Oh yeah, that's what I'm talking about - commissions! Let's get Bush off the ranch and full time on the rubber chicken circuit! The market will LOVE it!

 

Peoplenomics this Weekend

I was sitting at the pool last night with E having our evening libation (before the phone rang) and it occurred to me that people make an incredible number of assumptions about our shared economic future - so this weekend, we'll go through some of the list of assumptions and why they may be based on fantasy...

 

As I mentioned yesterday,  I have decided to rebrand our Inside Report series because frankly, Inside Report is not a very unique name.  This will also give subscribers a more complete entrance.  The change over will be slow, but that's what's happening with www.peoplenomics.com.   Subscription information here.

 

Our How to Live on $10,000 a year is by far the best seller in our bookstore - if you want to spend $10 to save thousands, click the link on the left for the ebook.

 

More Records Set

I'm pleased to report this morning that Urbansurvival.com has hit a new milestone: More than 104,403 page views in a single week..103,00+ to be precise.  Please feel free to tell your friends and relatives around the site - just have their email addresses handy and click here. Thanks for being a reader!

 


Thursday

FBI Protecting bin Laden's Rights!

From Judicial Watch this morning:

Apr 20, 2005 Contact: Press Office
202-646-5172

FBI PROTECTS OSAMA BIN LADEN’S “RIGHT TO PRIVACY” IN DOCUMENT RELEASE

Judicial Watch Investigation Uncovers FBI Documents Concerning Bin Laden Family and Post-9/11 Flights

(Washington, DC)  Judicial Watch, the public interest group that fights government corruption, announced today that it has obtained documents through the Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”) in which the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”) has invoked privacy right protections on behalf of al Qaeda terror leader Osama bin Laden.  In a September 24, 2003 declassified “Secret” FBI report obtained by Judicial Watch, the FBI invoked Exemption 6 under FOIA law on behalf of bin Laden, which permits the government to withhold all information about U.S. persons in “personnel and medical files and similar files” when the disclosure of such information “would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.” (5 U.S.C. § 552(b)(6) (2000))

 

Before invoking privacy protections for Osama bin Laden under Exemption 6, the FBI should have conducted a balancing “test” of the public's right to disclosure against the individual's right to privacy.  Many of the references in the redacted documents cite publicly available news articles from sources such as The Washington Post and Associated Press.  Based on its analysis of the news stories cited in the FBI report, Judicial Watch was able to determine that bin Laden’s name was redacted from the document, including newspaper headlines in the footnoted citations.

 

“It is dumbfounding that the United States government has placed a higher priority on the supposed privacy rights of Osama bin Laden than the public’s right to know what happened in the days following the September 11 terrorist attacks,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton.  “It is difficult for me to imagine a greater insult to the American people, especially those whose loved ones were murdered by bin Laden on that day.”   

 

The redacted documents were obtained by Judicial Watch under the provisions of the FOIA and through ongoing litigation (Judicial Watch v. Department of Homeland Security & Federal Bureau of Investigation, No. 04-1643 (RWR)).  Among the documents was a declassified “Secret” FBI report, dated September 24, 2003, entitled: “Response to October 2003 Vanity Fair Article (Re: [Redacted] Family Departures After 9/11/2001).”  Judicial Watch filed its original FOIA request on October 7, 2003.  The full text of the report and related documents are available on the Internet by clicking here (Adobe Acrobat Reader required).

Three Trillion Counterfeit?

Once in a while we see a story that just jumps out and demands more details - which I'm sure will emerge.  But here's a report of $3 trillion in US funds being confiscated!  One reader asks whether this might be headed for some Caribbean hedge fund to buy up US bond.  How good were the copies and were they really copies? This story out of the Philippines will be high on our watch board today. It may be a slip of a decimal point, but that's some country-sized loot fo sho.

 

Extraordinary Phone Calls

Two phone conversations last night put clearly into perspective how delicately balanced our economic future is: Robin Landry called in to report that at one point in trading, the Nikkei was down about 2%.  It closed down almost 1% for the session.  "If the USA sinks under 10,000 on the Dow here over the next week or so, we could get a test of the 9,500-9,700 area, and if that fails we could be headed to a test of 7,100," he explained.  And after that?  "I have two counts.  The best case says we rally and try one more small fourth up before going down, the other is that we are done and going lower from here."  What that means is the possibility of a Dow at 5,000 by year end.  This morning, the crush is on to bounce the market and get it away from the psychologically important 10,000 danger zone.

 

The other phone call was a debriefing with Cliff, the web bot developer,  (www.halfpasthuman.com ) who reports that there's now no particular reason why the banking establishment should keep the markets going, now that George Bush has signed the new bankruptcy bill. 

 

Did you know that your passport will be effectively pulled when you file under the new law?  The courts, for example, will get to ask where you are getting money for foreign travel.  This is one of those points of law that can be argued both ways:  Preventing scamming on bankruptcies which has occurred in the past is one way to read it, but another way is it sets up the police state ("Das papieren bitte?") instituting corporate slavery and restrictions on travel.

 

With this as background, and while we expect a plump up at the open, the close today, tomorrow, or early next week seems almost a slam dunk to head under 10,000.  Our fractal whiz Dr. G sees a short term blip up, too, but only short term:

"George, an ongoing attempt is being made to demonstrate the deterministic, quantum mechanic-like nature of valuations in equity markets which are among several investment areas that appear to conform to a non-stochastic macroeconomic growth and decay model. Credit contraction in the debt and debt derivative markets which lies below the reporting surface of the daily news announcements is now undergoing with reasonable probability its slow to rapidly accelerating exponential cascading domino effect. Markers for owed cash are being called. Junk bonds to keep illiquid corporations afloat are being offered to the debt market at 3-4 times US treasuries. The principal on these bonds are likely never to be repaid.

In the last piece relating to the bad debt dominant fractals, the notion was presented that during terminal cycle periods, caricatures of fractals and break points between the second and third cycles (2.5X/2.5X) might be expected. As a brief digression, the normal time unit cycle in an ideal credit expanding growth period is X/2.5X/2X with a subsequent decay period of 1.5 to 1.618X. In terminal portions of major cycles the last 2X growth cycle is extended in length by .5x making the total length 2.5X. This time extension is an equivalent Œtime exhaustion gap¹ and is directly analogous to the valuation exhaustion gaps such as witnessed on the minutely charts on March 4 and March 7 2005 on the Wilshire. This exhaustion gap, technically, in an aesthetically very pleasing manner, declared with a reasonable probability the secondary lower top of the great second economic fractal cycle beginning in 1858.

Using Big Charts, kindly turn to the last five day fifteen minute charts for the Wilshire (TWMX) and examine the commencement of the rolling lateral fractal pattern starting on Monday. A caricature Œbent¹ base (X) of 22 (15 minute units) started at the beginning of the trading day. 44 (15 minute units) or (2X) later a lower secondary high was made with a subsequent fall to 54-55 (2.5x). At this point the next 2.5 X growth period should have commenced to an equal or higher high than the second 2.5X cycle of the X/2.5X/2.5X valuation saturation curve pattern - but didn¹t. A break down occurred between the second and third 2.5X growth periods. There is still a possibility of filling the downward gap a few days ago on the NASDAQ.

The daily decay fractal pattern currently matches the synchronization timing. G. Lammert"

This sense that all hell is breaking loose behind the scenes shows up in the web bot processing, too.  The technology that helps define the most likely future for subscribers to Cliff's project seems to be focusing on imminent declines with the next period around May 21 popping up as a "hot date", not to mention the earthquake window we are in now, exit briefly, and then re-enter around the 24th of this month.

Seeing a race between market meltdown and sudden catastrophic earth events in our near future tends to make one quite skeptical of short term secular news events, which gets us to...

New Pope

Several readers have written asking for my assessment of the new Pope and whether his appointment constitutes a fulfillment of the St. Malachy prophesies.  Whether he does - or doesn't - meet the predicted glory of the olives kind of meaning, which could be interpreted as the next to last Pope based on Malachy doesn't hold much importance for us in the very short term, although his appointment is not receiving much good press in Europe.  Instead, we will return to our usual concerns with day to day economic matters, placing the Pope appointment in the same category as the Jackson trial - distractions from the problems facing the world as the derivative changes could melt down the world's economy shortly.

 

Israeli Lobby Housecleaning

Reports from the BBC that a major pro-Israel lobby group in Washington has fired some of its staff in the wake of an investigation into sending secrets to Israel. No wrong doing is alleged by anyone...but the changes are happening nevertheless.

 

Pipeline Break

Clean up is underway in Louisiana today where FEMA reports:

"An Exxon Mobil crude oil pipeline that brings sweet crude oil from offshore to inland refineries ruptured at about 2:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 19, 2005 six miles north of Grand Isle in Barataria Bay, an area of marshland and oyster grounds.

The Coast Guard Command Center in Houma said there were no immediate reports of damage to wildlife. Wind blew the sheen north by northwest and away from Grand Isle in the hours after the spill was detected.

It was not immediately known how much oil was released, but the sheen was large enough to require about 100 workers to contain and remediate.

Exxon Mobil shut down the pipeline and dispatched divers to inspect the pipeline, but was unclear how the pipeline broke. (Various Media Sources)"

Translating Rice

Apparently not all went well with translation services for Condi Rice on her present meetings in Russia with Vlad Putin and others.  What's not making headlines in the corporate press of the USA is that Rice is a) telling Putin he must resign in 2008 - no third term will be permitted and b) the US intends to inspect Russian nuclear sites.

 

Now, imagine how much like a crazy person Vlad Putin would sound if he came to the US and said the same things:  "We, Russia, will not permit so and so to run again...and we will inspect those nuclear facilities in Oak Ridge, Hanford, and those Sandia Lab sites..."  Yeah right, like that would play here, huh?

 

NASA Sued on Comet Bombing

Oh the world is getting crazier by the minute.  Russian media now report that NASA is being sued over the comet bombing plan set to go off on the 4th of July! 

 


Thursday

CPI Soaring - Up 0.6% One Month

The government released the latest figures on the cost of living this morning - and they are now up at an annual rate of more than 7.2%.  From the BLS press release:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The March level of 193.3 (1982-84=100) was 3.1 percent higher than in March 2004.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.7 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The March level of 188.6 was 3.1 percent higher than in March 2004.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.7 percent in March on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The March level of 112.5 (December 1999=100) was 2.6 percent higher than in March 2004. Please note that the indexes for the post-2002 period are subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in March, following an increase of 0.4 percent in February. Energy costs advanced sharply for the second consecutive month--up 4.0 percent in March. Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy increased 7.8 percent, while the index for energy services decreased 0.3 percent. The index for food rose 0.2 percent, as the index for food at home turned up in March after registering declines in each of the preceding three months. The index for all items less food and energy, which rose 0.3 percent in February, increased 0.4 percent in March. An upturn in the index for apparel and a larger increase in the index for lodging while away from home accounted for the larger advance in March.

Buried further into the news release is word that health care for the first three months of this year was increasing at a 10.3% clip and energy commodities, like gasoline, were up 39.6%. Ouch.  our 13% annual forecast might get uncomfortably close, especially when you consider the government numbers have an incentive built-in to under report actuals because to go higher would mean increasing wages of federal workers, military, and yes, even Social Security recipients.

 

Glacier Hits Berg

I don't know if you have been watching the huge floating iceberg in the Antarctic that we have mentioned several times, but today it may have created the largest "unstoppable object meet immoveable object" ever as it has run into the Antarctic glacier mass.

 

Related

We already know that 79 volcanoes are on watch around Indonesia, but today come reports from New Zealand of the ground opening up.

 

SCGCC Seems to be Here

That's sudden catastrophic global climate change in case you haven't been paying attention.  Today's example is incredibly interesting.  From the FEMA National Situation Report, we have this strange case of two kinds of weather related incidents at the same time: wild fires and snow storms, which in my limited experience as a journalist 9only since 1970) seems mighty damn out of the ordinary:

Storm Brings Nine Inches of Snow to Nevada A spring storm Tuesday, April 19, 2005, left up to nine inches of snow along the eastern Sierra Nevada and triggered a closure of Interstate 80 west of Reno. The Nevada Highway Patrol said a string of weather-related accidents shut down both lanes of I-80 near the California line for about an hour early Tuesday.

It took about seven hours to reopen westbound lanes. Three accidents in the area, including one involving a jack-knifed big rig, were blamed on slick road conditions.

The storm left as much as four inches of snow in Truckee and Reno, and nine inches in Walker, Calif., 75 miles south of Reno, according to the U.S. Weather Service. Farther to the south, Mammoth Mountain ski resort reported three inches. As much as five inches of snow fell in Eureka and four inches in Ely.

Despite the closure of some Lake Tahoe ski resorts for the season, the spring skiing conditions keep getting better with Alpine Meadows reporting four inches of new snow. (Various Media Sources)

Foot of Snow Falls in Wyoming A Spring storm provided additional relief from the drought by dropping a foot of snow over the mountains of western Wyoming on Tuesday, April 19, 2005.

Six to 12 inches of snow fell in the Absaroka Range by Tuesday morning, with one to three inches in the Cody foothills, the Sunlight Basin and the Crandall area near Yellowstone National Park.

The Wind River Mountains of west-central Wyoming picked up three to eight inches.

By late Tuesday afternoon, light rain was falling in Sheridan in north-central Wyoming, and severe thunderstorms were reported near Laramie and Cheyenne in the southeast corner. (Various Media Sources)

New Mexico Wildfire Reported in Gila National Forest A fire east of the Gila Cliff Dwellings Visitors Center has burned more than 80 acres, fire officials said Tuesday. The fire was reported to be eight miles from the cliff dwellings and about 40 miles north of Silver City.

A dozen firefighters were ferried to the area by helicopter, but the on scene fire commander requested additional support.

The wildfire was initially estimated at five acres, but quickly grew. The fire was burning in ponderosa pine, pinon and juniper and grass. The cause of the fire is under investigation. (Various Media Sources)

Crews Seek To Control Season’s First Big Wildfire in South Dakota Crews have established a line around the season's first big wildfire in the Black Hills. The Camp 5 Fire was declared contained at 5 p.m. EST on Tuesday. The fire burned 775 acres, or a little more than one square mile. It broke out Sunday afternoon about halfway between Deadwood and Sturgis. No cause has been determined yet.

Cooler temperatures and light rain continued Tuesday, allowing the 150 people fighting the fire to make good progress building the rest of the fire line and extinguishing hot spots. Officials said the number of firefighters would drop to 55 Tuesday evening.

A spokeswoman at the Great Plains Dispatch Center said crews now are working on getting the fire under control. Much of the timetable for that depends on the weather, she said, adding that crews already have done quite a bit of mop-up.

Control is achieved when the fire line is reinforced so that flare-ups within the perimeter can't escape, officials said in a release. Crews will continue to mop up and patrol the fire until all hot spots that could escape are extinguished, the release said.

Those working the fire included personnel from the National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, state and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. (Various News Sources)

See what I mean?  While it's true that occasional snow happens in June in some of these areas, I don't recall snows and wild fires at the same time - Very strange to have wild fire reports and snow reports back to back.  We will be watching this spring's commodity prices and crop estimates with much interest this spring.

 

Selling Terror?

Or, is the threat real?  That's the question today as we read with concern the reports that al Qaeda has either obtained a nuclear device or is planning a radiological attack on America or its allies. The problem, needless to say, is that such reports seem to crop up just about the time the public is getting ready to speak against police state provisions of the mislabeled "Patriot Act" extensions.  We're also amazed at how much "intelligence" exists on al Qaeda, yet how it's now been 3 1/2 years with no capture of bin Laden or Zarqawi.

 

Hold on Bolton

We received an email this week explaining how the proposal to send John Bolton off to the US would set the stage for international nuclear war.  Not that we put much stock in emails like this, but the Senate has decided to rethink the nomination.

 

Plame Case Smolders

You might have thought that the Valerie Plame case has just disappeared into the woodwork.  But, that's not quite the case.  Two reporters are facing more jail time for refusing to "rat out" the crooked source in the White House who blew the cover of an active CIA asset.  Some reports have suggested the absolute top names in the Bush administration are involved, which is why the reporters are so fearful of ratting out.  On the other hand, the case seems like it's in an honest court of law, so reporters may be compelled to tell.

 

GOP Sued over "W"

Jerry Gossett is claiming rights of first use (and to us what looks like a trade dress issue) as he has sued the Republican Party over the use of his "W" logo. We look for the GOP to react to the Gossett claim just like they react to things like the pain and suffering of everyday Iraqis from Bush's war, or the crack head cost of living figures that don't square up with anyone's personal checkbook: Denial.  Hey, I used to be a republican, you know, back when party leadership had actually read and understood the Constitution.

 

Russian Oil Battle

Remember that good looking Prime Minister of the Ukraine that we mentioned earlier last week?  Well, she seems to be spoiling for a fight with Russia over the operation of Russian oil companies in her country.  We see this as a sort of fight between Russian interests that now seem to be operating in the interests of Western Bankers versus Ukraine's states rights or sovereign nation thinking - not a good mix, so look for a show down over this.  Don't mess with banker's oil, I say.

 

Markets

It looks like a mixed opening this morning on Wall Street - meanwhile, the price of gold and silver has firmed up in the past couple of days (charts above).

 

Relax and Eat

A federal report out shows something that the diet industry - and the pill pushing pharmaceutical companies won't want you to know either - people who are a bit overweight don't kick the bucket any sooner than average, and in fact may actually live a bit longer.  Maybe its from not worrying so much?

 

Which Country has the Most HIV Cases?

Well, it depends who you ask.  If you ask South Africa, they are likely to point at India.  If you ask India, you will hear South Africa...somewhere around 5 million cases in either we reckon, and a few hundred thousand is not worth quibbling about - it's a disaster any way you cut it.


Wednesday

Der Pope!

Smoked out this morning - a German Pope. Jah die konspiracy volken will have a field day with this.  now, will he call himself or Olives or Peter? Something else?

Go Read!

Matt Simmons' forthcoming book - Twilight in the Desert - a look at oil depletion issues on his web site at his web site as an Acrobat of a PowerPoint at:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Boston%20Committee%20on%20Foreign%20Relations.pdf

Makes a scary companion read to Jim Kunstler's "The Long Emergency."

 

Toba to Blow?

The super volcano worries are increasing today - and if well founded, they would have more economic impact on the world that even a decline of 10% in the US markets, something that seems like an odds on bet.  To begin with, there's a report that there are now 79 volcanoes on watch which means, if you can picked several dozen Mt. St. Helen's kinds of events at the same time, would be a catastrophe. At least 5-million people are living in the shadow of potential death as the number of volcanoes rises.  By the web bots, there's a high risk period coming up around April 24th plus or minus several days, shading toward minus (around April 21-ish).

 

Housing Starts Drop

The biggest plunge in 14 years in the latest figures out this morning.  In our contrarywise markets, this ought to really help the markets.

 

Producer Prices Up

From the government's Producer Price Index report out this morning:

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.7 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.4-percent rise in February and a 0.3-percent gain in January. As they did in February, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index rose 1.0 percent, after climbing 0.7 percent in the prior month, and prices for crude goods turned up 4.3 percent in March, after declining 1.6 percent a month earlier.

The faster rate of increase for the finished goods index was primarily due to energy prices, which advanced 3.3 percent in March after rising 1.4 percent in February, though an upturn in capital equipment prices also contributed to the acceleration in finished goods prices. By contrast, price increases for consumer foods slowed to 0.3 percent in March from 0.8 percent in February. The index for consumer goods other than foods and energy also advanced less than it did in the previous month -- posting a 0.1-percent increase following a 0.2-percent rise in February.

During the first quarter of 2005, prices for finished goods advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.7 percent, after rising at a 7.2-percent SAAR during the final 3 months of 2004. Excluding prices for foods and energy, the finished goods index increased at a 3.7-percent SAAR for the 3 months ended March 2005, after rising at a 2.6-percent SAAR in the last quarter of 2004. Among prices for raw and partially processed goods, the SAAR for intermediate goods accelerated from 6.8 percent to 8.7 percent from the final quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2005. The crude goods index moved up at a 2.4-percent SAAR during the first quarter of 2005, after advancing at a 41.9-percent SAAR in the last 3 months of 2004.

For the 3-month period just ended, the annual rate of increase for finished goods is up 5.9% while intermediate goods are up 8.7%.  The only reason that energy finished goods are up only 15.9% has to do with throwing everything but the kitchen sink into the report in order to dilute the soaring increases in the price of diesel and gasoline. natural gas, for example, would count as a "finished energy good" and thus bring down the average.

 

There Goes Retirement

There's an old joke that goes something like, "When can't you trust a politician?  Answer: When they hold office..." It's not a joke today though as the Bush administration which once charading as the friend of working people (not) admitted that increasing the retirement age was a possibility. Missing is a proposed age and cutover group, but there's no question about it, the government, unable to contain its fiscal irresponsibility to the present day has taken to looting the Social Security Trust Fund (which is not a trust fund, and is only some IOU's) and expecting future generations to make up the difference by getting deeply indentured on behalf of their parents and grandparents.

 

Ure's Screwy Latest Theory:  As you know I'm a staunch Constitutionalist, and I see in things like these tax matters, that a good case will be made by future generations that they will fall victim to taxation without representation.  Therefore, shouldn't all laws in a genuine democracy need to sunset periodically in order to force a then representative rethinking of their justification?  If I were born a slave, I would sure rebel against unjust laws handed down before my birth and age of majority...  What a radical thought - why it could bust up the liquor monopoly with rethinking pot laws, it could force government to spend within its limits...yeah, definitely not the kind of thing the corporate masters of government would allow.  Speaking of which, if you haven't seen the new documentary "The Corporation" run (don't walk) out and grab it - new to video stores this week.  Wonderful and enlightening film.

 

Do as We Say...

...Not as we do.  We notice that Secretary of State Condi Rice is in Russia telling them how democracy should work.  At the risk of sounding disillusioned, it would be nice if the administration would focus a bit more on making democracy work here.  Their heartless pimping of the Constitution Busting Laws (deceivingly named Patriot Acts 1 and 2 much) shows it's a "do as we say, not as we do" operation.

 

Policy screw-up:  At the same time that Condi is selling democracy, we notice that the the US taxpayer supported Voice of America is starting daily broadcasts of TV news in Russian.  Say, Condi, does the right hand know anything about what the left hand is doing?

 

Outlaws and Outlaw Plants

We've long held to the view that the very act of making something illegal makes it desirable - which explains why liquor monopolies make so much money and why ganstah rap is so popular.  Now we notice the attempt is being made by some republicans to impose even more control on our freedoms as a bill to land pot sharing people in a federal prison looms. 

 

We expect a right-wing pile on and left-wing reactionary speech all over the place on this.  The obvious solution is to apply the same standards to legal drugs including everything from Levitra to Cialis to the mood altering drugs like Prozac.  Some of our suggestions:

  • Make state forced Ritalin use by kids illegal

  • Make use of Prozac or any other mood altering drug by any elected official illegal.

Of course, I don't expect the pharmgress to pass any such logical laws.  It's far more important to pass laws against marijuana although it may pose less health hazards that a triple shot Americano at Starbucks (if you have a heart condition, for example). Besides, making plants illegal seems pretty egotistical to us...I figure God put 'em here for some purpose.  Ever think how stupid making oak trees illegal sounds?

 

Then I sit back and wonder which is more dangerous, people who breed weed on Vancouver Island, or people who breed terminator seed crops (and chemically dependent crops) for Monsanto and other corporations for the sole  purpose of economically enslaving formerly self sufficient peoples...

 

This leaves me stuck with the liquor monopoly's vodka  and confused, I reckon.

 

No New Pope
Not in the morning session today, anyway.

 

FTA Talks

FTA - it's Australian for slavery as China and Australia try to come up with ways for the Chinese to steal jobs from the Australians.  Let's see, Oz workers will get to mine and pillage their country's natural resources and send them to China, while China will exploit the prison labor camps and send cheap goods to Oz.  yeah, this sounds like a fine Uberklassen plan, doesn't it?

 

No Free Beef

We reported yesterday that we had something more than two dozen cattle show up at our place in Texas.  Unfortunately for us, the plans for a huge UrbanSurvival BBQ had to be thrown out when the owners of a nearby ranch discovered the downed fence and the means of escape.  It also turns out that the cattle were ear-tagged, which prompts us to add recurrency training on cattle ear tag reading to our strange to-do list.

 

Fractal Perspective

Our resident fractal whiz has an update:

"George, the interpretation of fractals is an ongoing heuristic process; there are no written rules to follow, just the plentiful empirical data that is found with inductive reasoning on examining the recurrent fractal patterns on a minutely, hourly, daily, weekly and yearly basis in all investment arenas. Good debt, that which will be repaid and bad debt, that which will either not be repaid or only partially repaid, are the chief quantum units that are operative in growth and decay of asset valuations within the complex macroeconomic system. The system is characterized by periodic consumer saturation, fluctuating interest rates, interest rate dependent inflation, wages limited by global competition and domestic need, and ongoing competing available investments.

At stress points where markets become saturated by either overvaluation or diminishing credit availability - via either bad debt liquidation (default), rising interest rates, or new junk bond status of corporate debt: all of which absorb available credit - equities valuation contract.

The stress that underlies a contracting credit system, whereby bad debt and consumer saturation become the dominant forces over credit expansion, cause deleterious political and social events. Stated otherwise social and political events are chiefly resultant epiphenomena of the causal complex macroeconomic system. It is not the other way around. A review of history will reveal that when credit is expanding and that expectations that debt is being and will be repaid in a timely fashion, general global political and social harmony are at high levels. Economic stress conversely produces social and political reactionary maladaptions.

Inspection of the minutely and hourly fractals of each trading day provide new information which is descriptive of the daily status of the macroeconomic system and provides predictive information of the near term. Integration of the data from the short-term fractal picture with the longer-term evolutionary fractal pattern increases the accuracy of the predictions. A true fractal axiom is the more the fractal data with each ongoing daily revelation, the greater predictive precision.

Now return to a more practical level. In bad debt dominant systems, a decay break down of the three-cycle fractal pattern tends to occur between the second and third cycles. The ideal time periodicity on minute and hourly units (et. al) is x/2.5x/2.5x. The current market devaluation a few days ago began on a 14/35/35 15-minute unit pattern. A breakdown (which was not expected) occurred between the two 35 minutes cycles. The last growth cycle was overcome by predominant decay factors. Macroeconomically this might correlate to the underlying dynamics that GM, the GSA¹s and other major struggling corporations are absorbing significant amount of credit in an effort to continue ongoing operations.

Watch the minutely, 15 minutely, and hourly fractals roll out; if the current timeframe for devaluation is correct, break downs between lateral rolling fractals between the second and third 2.5X should become more and more frequent over the next near term period of trading. As cash evaporates through ongoing debt default and corporate junk bond servicing, the decaying fractals may become more and more caricatures of the x/2.5x/2.5x pattern. G. Lammert"


Monday

Ahead: Jitter Week

That's how we'd characterize the new trading week ahead.  The three major jitters are over how the stock market will fare, what will happen with earthquakes and earth changes this week, and then we can throw in a handful of terrorism concerns to top off the mix.

 

Markets

With most of the pundits talking about a rebound in the falling US markets at the open this morning, the news coming out of Asia is horrifying - sort of a Plunge Protection nightmare.  You see, while it may be possible for the US authorities working behind the scenes to prop up some of the domestic market action by pushing on various strings, the real damage happens when markets outside of direct control head south - and that's exactly what happened overnight in Asia. Not that dropping 500 points in the US is nothing to be sneezed at, but when the rest of the world chimes in, that's when a decline can turn into a global systemic meltdown.  The following chart is as of the preopen in the US market Monday:

Our colleague Michael Nystrom over at bull not Bull figures that what has started is nothing less than the sudden emergence of what Drucker describes as post capitalistic society.  What savvy observers, such as Nystrom and our colleagues over at www.halfpasthuman.com see is the same brick wall that occurs when the markets, in bacteria-like fashion, has pulled out the very last of their profitability options.  Specifically, once the resources are gone, and as the documentary "Corporation" [now in most good video stores] points out, there are two sides to corporations.  One side is the corporate PR'ed and pimped "good for the economy" but the dark side is that corporations act suspiciously like giant mutant space goats that exploit one underclass after another in order to put a few bucks on the bottom line.

 

Symptomatic of capitalism running out of mojo are phenomena like mergers (see this morning's acquisition of Macromedia by Adobe, for example) and falling earnings by surviving companies.  Screaming free trade doesn't help when bloated corporate overhead costs more than the products produced.  And when companies go to foreign countries, where the languages are different, the cost of administration of such foreign schemes is usually much higher than projected, leaving lower profit levels.  In the wake of lowered profits comes disappointments and disinvestment.

 

Oh, well....if you're a regular reader, you know this as been obvious at the macro level to long wave economists since 1987 failed to clean up excess debt.  Now, we're poised for a spectacular global crack up armed with a new and improved housing bubble to go along with the myth of 401K's meaning something - and not to mention the new slavery bill (disguised as the bankruptcy reform passed in blazing speed by CONgress) about to be signed by Emperor George.  We propose an alternative view in this week's Inside Report, but I'll warn you that it suggests something quite radical: planning your future now with the collection of paper in mind, but with the collection of producing assets..

 

The problem as we peer over the edge of the abyss as we forecast last Monday, is that the papered over economy all falls apart when the limit of expansion is passed and there's no one left to exploit who hasn't been exploited already.

 

In terms of the US markets, oversold and due for a short bounce, first I need to apologize on behalf of the web bots.  The software project that seems to do a decent job of predicting the future has one weakness that we've mentioned more times than I care to count: Our time lines are usually off.  We get a good sense of what's coming, but we don't get the dates right because paradoxically, once you step outside of conventions of how time operates, the landmarks get pretty weird.  That said, the projected decline of the markets that we forecast for April 4-9 was really April 9-15.  What do you want for a free peak at the future?  Notice our Aggregate Index chart below

 

As for the damage to the markets, it wasn't huge, but then again, it wasn't small, although we still don't see the kind of panic among investors that will signify a major bottom is in place.  Therefore our outlook is for the market to be pumped by the plunge protection team as much as possible when action resumes on Monday, but it may not hold against a serious surge of investors who are looking at negative returns in their 401-k's.

 

At www.halfpasthuman.com, the actual data collection in another sweep of the internet is now underway and you can subscribe, if you're so inclined. There is a special note for 605 subscribers, so if you have subscribed, check in right away.  If you're too lazy to click, ALTA stands for asymmetric language trend analysis - something you can do at home yourself if you happen to be a genius level programmer, fluent in C, PERL, and Prolog not to mention the wily ways of Microsoft code from an insider's perspective.

 

Quakes & Earth Changes

There was a fairly large quake in the Bakersfield/Kern County area of California this weekend.  Although we didn't feel it here, we're reminded that the big quake that the web bot project is looking for in the USA this spring will likely be a predawn event on a work day and it will bounce people out of bed. There's also a chance that it will be followed by a major aftershock or second quake in the 8-14 hours afterward, but that prediction may have already been fulfilled in last fall's quakes.

 

The action continues in Sumatra, as well, where we have lingering concerns about the Toba super volcano because it could easily turn into a "larger than Yellowstone" explosive caldera, and could turn an otherwise global warming planet into a place with no summer. 

 

Terror Jitters Fanned

There's a good article in Newsweek just out about some of the fears and reactions when the government thinks there's a potential terrorist on a flight over our soil. Separately, Time Magazine reports that more than 31,000 people are now on "no fly" lists. There are two reasons for mentioning the articles.  First with Patriot Act extensions pending in CONgress, we hope you would make your views on preserving the Constitution known.  Secondly, with the markets sinking so much last week, we figure the odds of a terrorist attack have become more likely, that is, if the conspiracy theories have anything behind them.

 

Smoke This Week?

The papal conclave is getting underway this morning at the Vatican with more speculation than fact. We won't even bother guessing, except to say that if the next Pope takes the name Peter of Rome (by many prophecies, the last Pope) then we're outa here..

 

Our Kind of Prime Minister

Have you checked out the Prime Minister of the Ukraine?  Click over and check out the picture of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.  Makes politics, er, more desirable. More snaps at http://www.tymoshenko.com.ua/eng/photo/# Forecast: She'll become a darling of the photojournalists.

 

Freak Wave

An NCL cruise ship survived an encounter with a freak 70 foot high wave off the coast of Florida this weekend.  The ship was in the aftermath of a gale when the wave came out of nowhere at dawn according to the captain, a well experienced master.  We seem to be noticing an increase in reports of such waves, although it may just be that they have been there all along, but the improved communications onboard ships has allowed such sea monsters to be reported.  If they have been out there all along, it would certainly explain both the Bermuda Triangle and the similar disappearances on the Pacific side in the Devil's triangle. Scary regardless.

 

Camera Phone Law

There's no such a law in the U.S. yet, but in Kuwait, the government has moved on a law which would make it a crime to take and circulate pictures of someone without their prior consent.  This will be the video world's equivalent to the secret audio recording laws when it starts making the rounds in privacy advocacy groups here.

 

Calendar

Next weekend, if you live near Indiana we think Live Free International's self sufficiency and self reliance leadership conference ought to be on your schedule.  If you have some reading time this week, an excellent article on basic survival skills at http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/article.php?id=matter_of_survival is worth perusing.   Also a visit to our other site, www.independencejournal.com.

 

The Free Steak Problem

We got a call from Panama up at our little place in East Texas on Saturday.  "You're now a cattle owner," he began.  "We've had about 24 head of market cattle come wandering up the road and they seem to have taken a liking to the patch of grass up around the garden," continued his report. 

 

After checking for brand, and mumbling about the "presents" they had left all over the front yard and road on the way up, Panama promised to get some snaps and email them out on Sunday. A couple of the cows looked to be laden with calves.  My advice?  If any of them drops a calf on our property, I'd keep it on the theory that it's be our range fees. 

 

As best we can guess, someone way out west of us had a fence go down, and that cattle just wandered out.  A check with local ranchers reports nothing missing though, and the Sheriff's office didn't seem much interested in taking a report.  For now, we'll just look at this as a contribution to our long term food storage plans.  No ear tags, no brands, and they look healthy enough.  I've heard of manna from heaven, but USDA prime on the hoof?  Is this cool or what?

 

Cliff's reaction: "If this isn't the Universe telling you something about your food storage plans...".

Daughter Denise's Reaction:  "Oh it's OK Dad, they are probably cows that escaped from the alien's cattle mutilation program and they got dropped off by your place.

Cliff's second reaction:  "Maybe it's the Universe calling bull--- on you..."

 

Beyond Financial Planning

Our Inside Report this week goes beyond the normal paper money accountancy of conventional economics and financial planners and calls for looking at more what the physical goods are that will define your future.

 

Our How to Live on $10,000 a year is by far the best seller in our bookstore - if you want to spend $10 to save thousands, click the link on the left for the ebook.

 

Last week, this site received 94,852 page views and 537,003 hits.  Please feel free to tell your friends and relatives around the site - just have their email addresses handy and click here.

 

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Write when you get rich,

 

George Ure, The People's Economist

   

Bulldog Editions In the glory days of newspapering, the Bull Dog edition was the Sunday edition of the paper issued on Saturday morning.  It had all the regular features, but might not have the absolutely most current up to the minute "headline" items.  We've generalized that, such that when we issue something in advance of our regular Monday morning update, we call them "Bull dog editions."  Whenever you see a BULL DOG notice on the top of this page, check back later for a more recent update. Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant.  We try to publish Mon-Fri by 6:30 AM Pacific (9:30 Eastern. Sometimes we don't awaken on time, but when delays are expected we try to publish a projected update time for your convenience.