Subscriber Entrance

How to Subscribe

Customer Service

 

     Saturday, Feb. 19, 2005 7:30 A PST

        "Follow the money.  Speak plainly."             Site Contact: george@ure.net    Best viewed at 1024 X 768

                                                                                                   Read our Disclaimer by clicking here    RSS logo

 Navigation: 

    Home

    Consulting Services

    Submit a News Tip

    US' News Scanners

    Free Econ Forum

    Last week's Column

    Archives - Library

    News Source Links

    Street Level Reports

 

What's worth a bunch in a depression? Gold of course! [Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

    Submit SLE Report
   
Scalar Weather Page

Related Sites
  
Half Past Human

    Panama Bates

    Independence Journal

    Elliott Wave Int'l page

 Web Bots

    Simple Explanation

    Northeast Power Outage

UrbanSurvival Books
   Introduction to Search
   Engines

 

Buy Our Book

on Web Site

Construction

Just $10!

 Confused by Search Engines?

Buy our book on Using Search Engines

Just $10

 
  

  

Favorite Colleagues

    Fiend Bear

     Capitalstool.com

     Depression 2.tv

     Elliott Middleton

     Jim Kunstler

     Safe Haven

     Life After the Oil Crash

     Peak Oil.com

     Solari

     Solari Action Network

     Steven Quayle

     Surfing the Apocalypse

     AR15.com News

     Coast to Coast AMt

     Alex Merklinger

     Jeff Rense

    Referring Sites Page

 

Amazing Weather Changes

L.A. has more Rain than Seattle!

We have gone off at some length trying to describe for you some of the earth changes underway here on earth for some time.  Part of the picture is explained by global warming, but the fact is that global warming does not mean that everywhere on the planet gets hotter. Instead is really means a change in the global climate such that the average temperature globally is hotter, but at the same time, there is a huge disruption of "normal" weather patterns such that global warming almost seems to be hiding.

 

Take for instance this week's heavy rains here in Southern California.  The February has been a strange one according to all the long-time residents I have spoken with.  Most significant to me?  The fact that Los Angeles this year (since New Years) has experienced about twice as much rain as Seattle!

 

Having grown up in the Jet City, I can tell you Seattle's reputation as the rain capitol of the universe did seem at times to be well deserved.  But we find the reports this morning at LINK that Seattle has only 5.4" of precip for year so far.  LA DATA

 

On a month to date basis, LA has 3.66 times as much precipitation as Seattle and for the year (you'll love this) L.A. has 2.3 times more rain than Seattle.

 

The usefulness of this data is this:  When you hear that the Bush Administration is not joining the Kyoto accords, consider that this year in Washington LINK the weather has been milder than many years and therefore, politicians who steer our future don't sense any urgency.

 

be watching later this year to see if agricultural hot spots like Lincoln, Nebraska, keep getting more rain than usual.  If they do, the impact will be positive on the U.S. balance of trade deficit, as we will have a bumper crop kind of year.  But if the averages kick in and the heat goes through the roof this summer and drought ensues, then the swing is against us. 

 

That's what makes global warming such a hotly discussed item:  Your perceptions of the issue will be colored by local weather.  And this year, the weather's a bit wetter than usual, so what's to worry? Except of course that it still raining like hell here in Burbank and the local flood watch advisories have been extended through Tuesday. And Burbank has 14 inches of year for the year so far...

 

AIDS Deaths Soaring

There's a report in the Seattle P.I. today about how deaths from AIDS in South Africa re up an amazing 57%: STORY.  No, we don't subscribe to the conspiracy theorists who propose that AIDS was artificially created as a population bomb for low income third worlders.  But, we also don't dismiss it out of hand, either...

 

Some Holiday

In Iraq, today is supposed to be a Shiite holiday.  What it has instead become is another day of suicide bombings, with 11 dead already: DETAILS.  The average, if you're keeping track, is three U.S. soldiers dying each day, by the way.

 

Grand Unified Theory

This weekend for subscribers, I've come up with something that's a sort of grand unified theory of fiat economics and it provides for an orderly transition to a gold standard if it pencils out.  We'll find out together this weekend.  Subscription Info.

  • Our booklet :How to live on $10,000 a year is available at our Bookstore.

  • Last week, this site served up 78,697 pages, so apparently the bull market plus all the prescription drugs are keeping people from thinking too much.  If you have someone you know who is not a corporatist suck up, send them a heads up by clicking here. Otherwise, it won't matter...


Friday

Our 13% REAL Inflation Forecast?

You may recall that back in December, or so, we posted our annual forecast for Inside Report subscribers. In it, we made the bold - almost rash k- assertion that we expected real inflation as felt by consumers to be in the area of 13%.  Today, the Labor Department has released the PPI numbers and while nowhere near our worry levels, they are definitely showing the effects of Banker Reserve money printing in order to paper over the fiscal largess of the Bush Administration is taking its toll:

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.3-percent decline in December and a 0.7-percent rise in November. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.4 percent in January, after inching down 0.1 percent in December. The crude goods index fell 2.0 percent, following a 3.0-percent drop in December. (See table A.)

Among finished goods in January, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy climbed 0.8 percent, compared with a 0.2-percent gain in December. The index for finished energy goods decreased at a slower rate in January than it did in December. By contrast, prices for finished consumer foods turned down in January, after edging up in December.

Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.7 percent in January to 151.5 (1982=100). From January 2004 to January 2005, finished goods prices increased 4.2 percent. During the same period, the finished energy goods index jumped 9.8 percent, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy rose 2.7 percent, and the index for finished consumer foods went up 4.1 percent. At the earlier stages of processing, prices for intermediate goods moved up 8.7 percent during the 12 months ended January 2005, while the crude goods index gained 10.8 percent."

The tables and more at at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm  Inside Report subscribers are watching a very interesting phenomena at work again.  Last week's issue was verging on bullish about 2005, but I warned that Ure turning bullish on the market is about as close to the "kiss of death" as you'll find for any market trend. 

Moreover, the market close last week at 10,796 on a weekly basis had us looking for this week to take out the one last technical barrier that prevented me from becoming outright bullish in public - which would have been a weekly close over 10,827.  Barring Universal Peace breaking out, I doubt the market has the strength to post a closing Dow over that today - and failure here sets up dramatic inflection point as investors go from the verge of bullishness to the depths of cynicism. 

There are two related items that will drive things.  First is The Conference Board's report on leading economic indicators, which saw a decline in January STORY.  But the real story is that the Conference board itself is now under investigation for how its statistical reports are released.  LINK.  You might remember that we've been after the University of Michigan for many months to tell us if the Federal (banker's) Reserve gets an advance nod on their Consumer Confidence numbers, but we've never heard back from them.

 

Readers in general are starting to see signs of the Big One coming, too.  Here's an email I received this morning:

...starting to show up on the street and in the suites?  The headline below is to an article that says Smith Barney US fires entire TA staff.  
STORY

Garry Hazell? Who he says:

Looks like the recession is starting in the semi-conductor makers. This is a bad number.
-----------------------------------------------------
NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY POSTS JANUARY 2005 BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO OF 0.80

SAN JOSE, Calif., February 17, 2005 -- North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.01 billion in orders in January 2005 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.80 according to the January 2005 Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 0.80 means that $80 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

All of which makes our case for a stagflationary recession by year's end.

Marital Strike is Good?

We must not be reading this REPORT right.  It says that women who don't speak up and confront their husbands are something like four times more likely to die of disease. The author of the news story suggested taking the report with a pinch of salt, but we reckon that would violate the low sodium objective.  But one thing's for sure: This could explain why the Stepford Wives were all youngish looking...

 

Picture Phone Use in China

Interesting story out of China today on how it will be a while before taking your cellular picture phone to China will make sense: STORY.  Frankly, we used to think people who wanted a cellular picture phone were crazy.  Now, we've accepted it as a fact.

 

Quaking

Here's the "official"  USGS list of earthquakes which we've been watching this week...

DATE-(UTC)-TIME Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Comments
yyyy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss degrees degrees km    
2005/02/17  20:42:57 1.77S 81.04W 10.0 5.1 OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
2005/02/17  13:38:48 13.55N 88.32W 202.8 4.5 EL SALVADOR
2005/02/17  08:12:17 1.22S 80.96W 10.0 4.6 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
2005/02/17  06:20:23 34.08S 178.08W 37.1 5.2 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
2005/02/17  06:12:16 5.85S 150.57E 38.1 5.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
2005/02/17  05:31:26 4.71N 95.20E 35.7 5.7 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2005/02/17  03:12:45 11.02S 76.08W 124.1 5.4 CENTRAL PERU
2005/02/17  03:12:44 43.72N 111.14W 5.0 2.9 SOUTHERN IDAHO
2005/02/17  02:38:53 6.61N 82.39W 10.0 4.5 SOUTH OF PANAMA
2005/02/17  02:34:28 1.14S 80.98W 10.0 4.5 NEAR THE COAST OF ECUADOR
2005/02/17  01:57:00 61.32N 149.85W 29.6 3.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA
2005/02/17  01:19:16 56.12S 27.44W 102.7 5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
 
2005/02/16  20:27:53 35.67S 16.36W 10.0 6.6 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2005/02/16  18:41:21 61.29N 149.87W 41.5 3.6 SOUTHERN ALASKA
2005/02/16  18:35:23 61.34N 149.85W 35.0 4.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA
2005/02/16  13:08:33 7.66N 94.39E 46.1 4.6 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2005/02/16  11:42:11 20.92S 176.93W 274.4 4.7 FIJI REGION
2005/02/16  10:54:07 35.27N 36.03W 10.0 5.3 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2005/02/16  09:11:23 22.81S 66.30W 236.8 4.2 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
2005/02/16  09:01:04 1.15S 80.99W 24.0 4.5 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
2005/02/16  08:19:42 8.23N 94.10E 16.3 5.9 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2005/02/16  00:25:21 5.24N 94.97E 30.0 4.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
 
2005/02/15  22:37:14 46.31N 13.57E 10.0 2.5 SLOVENIA
2005/02/15  22:20:51 34.80N 116.26W 7.0 3.4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2005/02/15  21:42:16 1.73N 92.42E 25.0 4.5 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2005/02/15  21:19:23 13.86S 171.98E 21.2 5.0 VANUATU REGION
2005/02/15  20:20:43 8.82N 93.90E 30.0 4.7 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2005/02/15  20:08:42 8.80N 93.91E 30.0 4.9 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2005/02/15  19:46:35 35.99N 139.68E 45.9 5.5 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/02/15  17:22:27 7.22N 77.19W 35.0 4.5 PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER REGION
2005/02/15  14:42:25 4.78N 126.39E 39.7 6.6 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
2005/02/15  13:58:11 32.45S 179.77W 453.8 4.8 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
2005/02/15  13:28:14 15.34S 167.57E 60.7 5.0 VANUATU
2005/02/15  13:05:49 24.45N 94.63E 68.8 5.3 MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
2005/02/15  13:01:20 3.26N 94.00E 23.1 4.6 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2005/02/15  12:41:46 47.75N 89.43E 10.0 4.9 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
2005/02/15  11:33:59 41.84N 79.42E 28.7 4.7 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
2005/02/15  11:16:16 41.62N 79.46E 35.2 5.3 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
2005/02/15  11:15:12 24.54N 92.56E 45.6 5.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION
2005/02/15  04:31:45 15.71N 61.60W 10.0 4.3 LEEWARD ISLANDS
2005/02/15  03:52:02 38.39S 176.01E 155.0   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
2005/02/15  03:23:03 4.71N 62.13E 10.0 4.4 CARLSBERG RIDGE
2005/02/15  02:32:59 1.74N 92.10E 10.0 5.5 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2005/02/15  02:27:50 1.52S 80.86W 10.0 4.3 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
2005/02/15  01:45:46 1.80N 92.07E 30.0 4.9 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2005/02/15  00:40:28 45.17N 28.86E 7.5 2.9 UKRAINE-ROMANIA-MOLDOVA BORDER REGION
2005/02/15  00:29:26 39.10S 174.90E 226.0   NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
 

You'll notice that we had a 6.6 on Tuesday, a 6.6 on Wednesday, but no 6+ quakes on Thursday at least by the official record.  There is one thing that seems to be changing - look at the depth of the quakes.  See how many of them are "deep" (more than 100 KM down)?  that's down near the earth's mantle and that is worth watching. Anything over 20 km deep is of particular interest.  The shallow quakes do the damage but the deep ones are indicative of "big" movements.  Our three 6.5's in a 24-hour period threshold hasn't been met, but we're watching it till things really settle back to normal.

 

Turns out the breaking apart of one of the earth's two major plates is something that scientists at Columbia University have been watching since 1995;  STORY.  But where's the public plan for what happens next???  What else has happened since '95 that we're not being warned about?

 

Other Earth Changes:  The rains are falling again in Southern California where LA is now running at twice its normal average rainfall for the year to date.  ALMANAC.  If L.A. is double wet, Phoenix is close to "triple wet" for the year:  ALMANAC.  So is El Paso.  (Am I the only one that sees humor in El Paso's airport code being Kelp - which is about as unlike anything you'd find in El Paso?)  Apparently not, a reader writes:

"The World Airport codes website says El Paso's code is ELP - I thought they were all three letters. The one that amuses me most is FAT for Fresno, the western home of the IRS."  (By convention, US Airports have K's in front of them now...-G)

Russia Backing Iran

Vlad Putin is backing Iran up today in the escalating war of words with the neocon gunslingers.  Says Vlad, Iran is not going to building weapons.  STORY.  Naturally, we're as skeptical of Putin's foreign policy assessments as anyone, but if there's an attack on the Bushir nuclear plant in Iran, it'll be Russian investors who will feel the string and Vlad knows that. 

 

There Goes the Neighborhood

As the US quest for oil in the Middle East may run into a few bumps (like the story above) we notice that oil rigs are showing up all over Texas.  The UTI rig down the street from the ranch that gave us 90-days of noise is gone (presumably it hit) but not we're seeing reports of rigs popping up in residential areas of Houston.  STORY. 

 

About your Income Tax

Speaking of Socialists - here's an interesting report from the Socialist's web site about taxes that worth the read: STORY. 

 


Thursday

What's Next in the Middle East

The recent "successes" between Israel and the Palestinians have sure lost their luster, as events elsewhere in the Middle East have taken most - if not all - the shine off the necon's vision for Pax Americans in the Arab oil patch.  CNN mildly understates that Tension mounts between U.S., Syria.  Syria, for it's part is stocking on on weapons, realizing the serious nature of events.  DETAILMore.  And with Syria and Iran forming an alliance, we figure it's only a matter of time until Iran shoots down an unmanned US surveillance aircraft. PENDING.

 

With the stew turned up to low boil, we can almost see the next headline - due in a few days - "Iran shoots down U.S. spy plane."  When it happens, as we think it will, the question is "What next?"  Iran has several ways they can respond.  Their buddies in Syria could cause more problems in Lebanon, or Iran could simply start making noise about selling their oil for Euros and not sell to the U.S. or American companies. This would likely have Russian backing, because Russia has built the Iranian nuclear plant and doesn't have any problem selling arms to anyone with cash. 

 

That would leave the U.S. in a shoot or blink mode - and we expect that with U.S. forces already plentiful, relatively speaking, in the region, the Texas gunslinger is likely to shoot first - as he did in Iraq.  Our fear is that we will be lied to again - like we were over WMD's in Iraq - so the next predictable thing will be the demonization of Iran and beefing up the ranks.

 

Therefore, let's look for Bush administration planted stories in the next week that will allege a lack of democracy and will try to paint Iran's leadership as devils who need to back off or be punished.  Whipping up a war fever may be more difficult for the Iraq-wizened citizens of the U.S. This will be accompanied by a big push to bring back the military draft in the U.S. and the advance stories about that are already surfacing.  LINK.  Next year will not be a good time to be 19 years old.

 

Taxes for Social Security

Here's a no brainer:  The President, the Prince of Deficits, the Boy Wonder of the Printing Press, seems to have figured out that there's no more free lunch so Social Security taxes will have to be raised.  STORY.  The proposed increase would be aimed at those of us who make more than $90K a year. Gee, thanks.  Not to state the obvious, but how long has it taken the Harvard MBA grad backed up by armies of green-eye shade dudes to pencil this one out?

 

Pitching Fear

CIA Director Goss was out making headlines yesterday, saying things like al Qaida was thinking about our leaky southern border and WMD's being used on American soil are only a matter of time.  REPORT.  While Goss is worried, there's more reason for concern in a UN report that suggests there's terror in our future. LINK

 

Life On Mars

Not exactly nightclubs, freeways and Tivo, but there is at least some evidence of microscopic life on Mars: DETAILS.  I've got genuinely mixed feelings on the space program.  Part of me wants to go star-hopping on the Enterprise - but a larger part says we ought to get things right here on earth before we go invading the rest of the solar system and beyond.  Otherwise, odds seem to favor us becoming the Klingons...

 

Getting Older

Homo Sapiens seems to be 35,000 years older than many had previously thought - so sayeth the Scientific American STORY out today.

 

Hucksterism

  • Our booklet :How to live on $10,000 a year is available at our Bookstore.

  • This week's Inside Report readies folks for the possibility of a bull market breakout come the end of this week and a projected closing Dow north of 10, 827 or so.  Subscription Info.

  • Last week, this site served up 78,697 pages, so apparently the bull market plus all the prescription drugs are keeping people from thinking too much.  If you have someone you know who is not a corporatist suck up, send them a heads up by clicking here. Otherwise, it won't matter...


Wednesday

Banker's Reserve Boss Speaks

In his testimony to congress today, Alan Greenspan admitted again that he doesn't know what will happen next on rates.  Sounding a lot like our comments on the narrowing of rates recently, His Holiness said:

"Some analysts have worried that the dip in forward real interest rates since last June may indicate that market participants have marked down their view of economic growth going forward, perhaps because of the rise in oil prices. But this interpretation does not mesh seamlessly with the rise in stock prices and the narrowing of credit spreads observed over the same interval. Others have emphasized the subdued overall business demand for credit in the United States and the apparent eagerness of lenders, including foreign investors, to provide financing. In particular, heavy purchases of longer-term Treasury securities by foreign central banks have often been cited as a factor boosting bond prices and pulling down longer-term yields. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage rates have dropped to a level only a little higher than the record lows touched in 2003 and, as a consequence, the estimated average duration of outstanding mortgage-backed securities has shortened appreciably over recent months. Attempts by mortgage investors to offset this decline in duration by purchasing longer-term securities may be yet another contributor to the recent downward pressure on longer-term yields.

But we should be careful in endeavoring to account for the decline in long-term interest rates by adverting to technical factors in the United States alone because yields and risk spreads have narrowed globally. The German ten-year Bund rate, for example, has declined from 4-1/4 percent last June to current levels of 3-1/2 percent. And spreads of yields on bonds issued by emerging-market nations over U.S. Treasury yields have declined to very low levels.

There is little doubt that, with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the integration of China and India into the global trading market, more of the world's productive capacity is being tapped to satisfy global demands for goods and services. Concurrently, greater integration of financial markets has meant that a larger share of the world's pool of savings is being deployed in cross-border financing of investment. The favorable inflation performance across a broad range of countries resulting from enlarged global goods, services and financial capacity has doubtless contributed to expectations of lower inflation in the years ahead and lower inflation risk premiums. But none of this is new and hence it is difficult to attribute the long-term interest rate declines of the last nine months to glacially increasing globalization. For the moment, the broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond markets remains a conundrum. Bond price movements may be a short-term aberration, but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience."  The whole thing.

What this boils down to is " it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience   know what the hell is going on!." Remember:  In the parlance of the Banker's Reserve: Judgment means "guess" or "clue".  If the market drops a bit today, it's because maybe some folks are just waking up to the fact.

What About Interest?

Before you go rushing headlong into swallowing the speech of Sir Alan hook, line and sinker, you might want to read his recent speech on Adam Smith, who's "Wealth of Nations" is something like a globalist's Bible.  Earlier Speech.   While raising partially due praise for Smith, the Chairman of the Banker's Reserve talks about how ideas rule history, yet much as a blind man, he manages to get through an entire speech again without questioning the whole notion of "rent of money" - better known as interest.  In his speech, Greenspan's only reference to "interest" is as self interest - not the compounding debt kind of interest that rules the modern world.  If I have one regret about life this time around, it is that the Big Lie about the economy was so well shielded from me when I was young.  Life in America is no longer about hard work.  It's about owning paper that indentures and manipulating people for economic gain.  Getting ahead is not about building houses, factories, and taking time to smell the roses.  It's about paper.

 

So when the head of the Banker's Reserve gives a speech about the economy, ask yourself "Is he being straight with us about the role of interest and the whole fractional reserve pyramid scheme?"  I think you know the answer to that one already. Interest is a banker's meal. And what of hard work?  That's for the folks who make minimum wages and the illegals we bring into the country to do the real dirty work while we hold the paper - interest bearing instruments - as a better whip than slavers ever had. Even the Knight himself admits that:

"And yet, regrettably, much of today's developing world would appear familiar to our forebears. Pestilence is present in the form of AIDS, and as a consequence, life expectancy in much of Africa is not much different from what it was in most of the world two centuries ago. Significant parts of the world still experience periodic famine."

The dirty lie is that the ascendancy of paper debt instruments has allowed the rich to get richer and the poor be damned.  And when tragedy strikes, as it has recently in Indonesia, we'll dare not call bankers bastards for charging "interest" to starving people for rebuilding their homes. Story 1 Story 2 Story 3.  Free help for dying people?  Nope.  We're not that rich or generous as a planet -  It's predatory lending globalist and Greenspan's rosy references to "self interest" compounds the lie.

 

United Against Bush: Syria and Iran Link

In what could prove to be a very difficult problem for the Bush Administration, Syria and Iran have announced a sort of mutual self-defense pact which is aimed at causing Washington to have second thoughts about attacking either Iran or Syria: STORY.  The U.S. lacks, by most reasonable estimates, the manpower to pursue a conventional ground war with both countries simultaneously. Iran had earlier charged the Bush Administration with using unmanned drone spy planes to line up target data for a possible invasion. The US ambassador has been recalled from Syria to Washington for talks - and now there's something besides the bombing in Lebanon earlier this week, to talk about. LINK.

 

Would the US public support a US first strike using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons?  We think not.  But then again, not telling if the neocons have managed to sell "all hat no cattle" on the idea of "nukes for freedom."

 

Eye Carumba

There's a heck of a report about the troubles at CBS in today's New York Observer at http://www.nyobserver.com/pages/nytv.asp Oh the troubles of getting the news produced.

 

Mileage Tax

We notice that CBS has picked up the California mileage tax story that we told you about months ago Story.  The idea is that if you drive a long distance to work, you ought to pay a penalty compared with someone who drives 50-miles each way to work.

 

New HIV Strain in Calif.

Not that it comes as a surprise, but the new aggressive type of HIV that can turn into full-blown AIDS in 90-days is now reported in San Diego.  LINK.  Which means it will likely show up in \Palm Springs and San Francisco shortly, too...

 

About Accountants

I received an irate email yesterday from an accountant who was incensed that I excluded lawyers and accountants from the real people who make real things.  The gist of it was "What do you mean?  Accounts are real people...  "  Well, sort of.  Don't take it personally if you're an accountant (or lawyer...) What I was referring to was the traditional business school distinction between the line and a staff of traditional company.  The line (named after the production line) is where products are made.  The staff are the people who don't make the product but are necessary to support the line which does.  Schematically it looks like this, realizing that the arrows are really bi-directional and not everyone agrees about the role of general management's central locations in plan, control and directing traffic...and yes, accounting touches all departments just like HR and legal:

 

 

Nevertheless, when I say "real people who make real things" I'm not throwing rocks at anyone, and I'm just recognizing that millions of line jobs are now done overseas (jobjacking victims) while the staff positions (with the exception of IT) have been largely unscathed in comparison.  That said, accountants are real people in the consciousness arena, but not when it comes to the line which manufactures a product or delivers a service.

 


Tuesday

Urge to Merge

Well, it's almost strange how our urge to merge story comes along right after the romance of Valentine's Day...but then again, maybe it's not so strange.  We have reports today that Saks may go on the block according to the NY Post.  But this is more likely trimming following the reported breakup of merger talks with Mays. Then there's the unsolicited offer to take Circuit City private LINK.  Then we have Verizon-MCI going together.  DETAILS.  Ainsworth Game Technology may merge with a Russian partner: Story.  Yup, sure is like spring.  At some point, we expect all the merger talk to result in a few more sleepy heads waking up on Wall St. to the notion that merger talk is generally good hype for the market and one of the few recent reasons to buy many stocks. On the other hand, gold made a nice bounce offs the $409 levels and the dollar seems to have peaked, so we'll see if the mergers really do anything for the market.  Driving season is coming, and you know what that can do to oil prices...

 

Credit to Contract?

Resident fractalist G. Lammert has some thoughts on the possibility - remembering that the U.S. is trying to find buyers for debt - and the mega-mergers gobble up lending...

George, in 1929, credit contraction occurred in a relentless ratcheting fashion from 1929 to 1932. This macroeconomic credit contraction process occurred in a rather orderly fashion with the daily equity valuations from 1929 to 1932 revealing and describing the nature and pattern and rapidity of the credit contraction. At the beginning of the contraction, stocks, corporate bonds and municipal bonds, were credit and money equivalents to actual cash held in personal accounts. A rising total effective credit equilibrium occurred with a to and fro movement of cash moving in and out of those investment entities. Because of the ease of exchange liquidity, to have ten shares of Radio in 1929 was equivalent to having the cash represented by those ten shares.

The effective total credit of the revolving cash and stock equilibrium system represented a near summation of both real cash and the stock. When stocks dropped by 90 percent, the total summation credit was reduced by 45 percent.

Likewise the total credit for the entities of corporate and municipal bonds was represented by both the money delivered to the issuer of the bond preferably for business and production investment and the bond itself which represented credit owed to the bond holder. The bonds, like the stocks, were cash equivalents and could be traded in the financial debt markets. If the issuer had spent the money on equipment not useful in a recessionary environment (or on a depreciating house in terms of a present day mortgage scenario) and defaulted on the repayment obligation the total summation credit was reduced by nearly 100 percent.

With the events of 1929 the total effective credit available for further investment, borrowing, and growth contracted. As credit contracted, real cash became dear, and both the owners of the cash and the lending institutions became paranoid and hesitant in further lending. With less real credit available commodities likewise saw their relative value nadir to lows in 1932.

During the credit contraction money flowed into the most conservative of financial instruments, federal debt, driving both long term interest rates and short term interest rates down. Without a significant national debt in the early 30ıs, the federal reserve was able to initiate and then augment the natural market driven process of lowering federal interest rates. The months of credit contraction preceding October 1998 represented a similar occurrence as conservative smart money exited equities and entered bonds, driving interest rates lower.

Currently the US Wilshire 5000 (VTI) represents well over 95 percent of the US equity capitalization with about 14 trillion dollars. Its secondary top on 3 January 2005 has not been exceeded. Excluding derivatives and real estate, the worldıs summation credit is represented by the worldıs cash and liquid cash equivalents - about 55 trillion dollars worth of equities, bonds, securities, commodities, and financial instruments. The worldıs summation credit -with the exception of cash and federal bonds- will soon undergo contraction following the nature of the 1929 macroeconomic implosion. Because of the extremes of debt, overvaluation, and forward consumption, the actual decay process is likely to be both more rapid and more severe.  - G. Lammert

Bye Bye Long Distance

Good article in today's Jersey Star Ledger about how communications deals like MCI-Verizon are reshaping the future of long distance calling: DETAILS.  We're quite impressed with the internet entries into the long distance fray in general, and in particular, we're happy with www.skype.com which offers long distance on the internet, to most places in the civilized world for 2.3 cents a minute which compares with bargain phone cards at about 8 cents a minute.  And with no equipment to buy, if your laptops, like ours, have standard built-in sound cards that you can plug a mic/headphone into...

 

We'll Survive 2029

Although it will be close, scientists now figure that the earth will be missed by a larger asteroid that held the potential to be a planet-killers;  STORY.  Naturally, we don't expect dyed-in-the-wool conspiracy theorists to buy this - after all, if earth were going to be hit, do you really think the powers that be would tell anyone?  I think not...

 

M.E. Peace Fleeting

We report sadly this morning that the big bomb blast in Beruit yesterday did enough damage to tender relations in the Middle East that it could start another round of fighting.  DETAILS.  Our expectation is that Syria will not be forced to withdraw their troops from Lebanon, although when you get right down to it, if the Bush Administration were sincere about freeing people, they would start in places like Lebanon.  But, of course, they don't have oil...and they weren't going to sell oil for Euros...  As our military affairs correspondent writes: "Just in case you haven't heard.  It's been a poorly kept secret that US Special Ops. teams have been operating inside Iran for over a year." 

 

Today, Israel is worried that Russian missiles sent to Syria could fall into terrorists hands.  DETAILS.

 

Dangerous Meeting

Speaking of which...  We know how sensitive the U.S. is about people who sell oil in Euros and so by our reckoning, one of the most dangerous meetings in a long time is the little heralded on between OPEC and the European Union: STORY.  It wouldn't surprise us if something happened to derail these talks. Oil for Euros is something the Buck (not to mention the neocon gunslingers) would have a tough time dealing with... hence, we wouldn't be within blocks of that meeting given our druthers.

 

Resisting Corporatism

We note that one of Russia's top diplomats is warning his countrymen not to be too anxious to jump on the World Trade Organization railroading of workers.  STORY.  In case you hadn't applied rigorous thought to the issue, our take is that the WTO is like the smoke-filled back room where corporations figure out how to play the spread between worker salaries in various places around the world.  So, instead of paying working wages in the U.S., the globalists pay maybe 10% of the labor costs and hire cheap labor in places like India and the Philippines.  That's why the "economic recovery" was so lame - it was there alright, but in places like Manila and Mumbai. The job creation at home was for lawyers and accountants.  Not people manufacturing goods.

 

The economic solution is to require companies pay "leveled labor costs" using a systems of purchasing power parity, such that workers who put in 8-hours in a phone room in New Delhi can live at the same levels as the workers they replace in Oakland.  Think this approach will get wings?  No chance!  It's also why when there are economic breakdowns in history, banksters are hunted down and strung up...

 

Did Iraq Elections Work?

If you're in the U.S. you'll see that even skeptics of the war, who point out how we were lied to about the WMD issue, are admitting, as Bill Maher did with Larry King last night, that the Iraq elections were impressive.  However, in the Arab press, there are concerns that the elections may actually result in more instability.  REPORT

 

Mine Disaster

The Chinese are reporting the largest mine disaster since the 1940's.  LINK.  More than 200 people being killed in a mining accident is serious, but even more worrisome is whether this is somehow tied in to all the land movements around the world...movements touched by the Boxing Day Quake and tsunami.

 

Retail Sales

It's a mixed bag - revised to up 1.1% in December while down a smallish 0.3% in January according to the latest NUMBERS:  The problem for the Bush administration continues to be stubborn unemployment.  Yes, a few people are getting ahead, but those much hyped productivity numbers ultimately mean fewer jobs, so be careful about what you wish for.  Perfect productivity doesn't include any people...

 

Computer Battles

I almost got my wireless network at the office up yesterday, but it wasn't without effort.  To begin with, SBC (which one reader suggested means Satan-Based Communications) had screwed up internally and had actually canceled my order on the 8th - something I had been talking to SBC outposts about on a daily basis, but which everyone denied until the actual due date.  The Good news was that once the order error was discovered ("Oh, we shouldn't have canceled that!") the problem was solved within an hour.  To SBC's credit.  But then came another couple of hours while I had port 25 unblocked so I could check my EarthLink account and send mail there instead of using the SBC outgoing server.  And then the wireless router died of presumably infant component failure (or it couldn't handle my strong language...)  So this morning a new wireless router (Belkin) will replace the new but recently dead unit (D-Link) which will go back for warranty replacement, although I didn't keep the box while I waited for SBC for Lord knows what will happen there. 

 

A New Thought About Chemtrails

OK, I know this gets out there into the borderland science arena, but here goes.  There's a report that a new kind of infrared camera system can catch what could - and I emphasize the world could show pictures of UFO's: STORY.  This is only sort of marginally interesting in and of itself. 

 

However, when coupled with this STORY about odds shapes being seen in the chemtrails (contrails), we find support for the notion that UFO's are not from some other place in space but may just dissolve into our world from another dimension right next door.  Which, for what it's worth, would fit with a lot of religious descriptions, including parts of the Nag Hamadi scrolls which detail the beginnings of the world in much different terms than the Bible.

 


 

♥♥♥ Monday ♥♥♥

It hasn't fallen over!

We pointed out to Inside Report subscribers this weekend that something went horribly wrong in Madrid this weekend.  The large high rise building which caught fire, burning out Deloitte-Touche's operations, didn't fall to the ground: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4261315.stm All of which gets us asking once again So tell us again why the Twin Towers (and building 7) blew over with the 9/11 event?  Something continues to smell fishy here...  Only question was what was the object of the fire?  An Audit underway or something Xinhua was going to press with?

 

Gullible Public Leads Market Rally

That's one conclusion that a wild-eyed semi-reformed pattern day-trader like me would infer from looking at the closing averages of the Dow and the NYSE's own statistics:

What this chart sez is that although the sheeple are slowly wizening up up to the fact that there's a huge hand off of securities from the strong hands to the weak, the market has been in a fine updraft here for a while.  Although, as we explained to subscribers this weekend, getting over the 10,827 level on the Dow is a daunting task even for the super Bulls.

 

Holiday?

I bought Elaine a little something for Valentine's Day, although on the far side of 55, a high performance laptop might not quite be the universal archetype of sexy....  One thing we would suggest is that if you love someone, call them today and remember, love is the best investment there is...or Skype them if you have the high performance 'net connection. 

 

Should I mention that when I bought the computer which was advertised at $699, it rang up as $1,264 even though nothing was added at the CompUSA checkout stand?  The difference?  All in the form of rebates.  Scads of them...more paperwork than some days at the office! 

 

Remember: If you send it a rebate, keep a copy and put a date on the calendar to follow up with people.  We did a rebate purchase about two years ago and Compaq/HP had to be "reminded" 8 weeks later.  That's one way to save money...

 

Concern:  We notice that a lot of major earthquakes have occurred on named holidays.  The Boxing Day Tsunami last year and the 64 Good Friday Quake in Alaska...that's the stuff that makes us focus on doing good and holding good thoughts...

 

War on Tyranny to Replace War on Terror?

We've always had respect for literate people with a good grounding in history, when they take on issues of the day.  No exception in the latest from William Engdhal at this LINK.  All of which leads naturally to a discussion of how the administration is...well, check out this logical quote:

"As reckless as this seems given the Iraq quagmire, the fact that little open debate on such a broadened war has yet taken place, indicates how extensive the consensus is within the US Washington establishment for the war policy. According to the January 24 New Yorker report from Seymour Hersh, Washington already approved a war plan for the coming 4 years of Bush II, which targets ten countries from the Middle East to East Asia. The Rice statement gives a clue to six of the ten. She also suggested Venezuela [20% of US oil]  is high on the non-public target list. "

Duh.  Venezuela has oil.

 

Leading the Sheeple to Iran (4% of world oil)

Ready to charge another semi-modern country back into the Stone Age?  Well, get ready!  No question about it, the neocons are still riding high in the saddle in DC.  The latest is that the US has been using unmanned drones in Iran to figure out which targets might be ripe pickens.  But does a war with Iran still lurk in our future?  As best we can tell, You Betcha!  STORY   More   Mind you, we don't have any problem with invading Iran, after all, they do hold about 4% of the world's oil reserves, and absent meaningful fuel economy moves by the neothinks, the only solution will be to take oil at gunpoint by any means necessary.  Not that we're against that, don't get us wrong.  We like check gas as well as the next SUV driving family.  Speaking of which...

 

Fidel Gets It Right

Although we're no fan of cigar smoking dictators, we have to give Fidel Castro credit for two things.  First:  His call that if there's an assassination of Venezuelan President Chavez, it will be something which can be laid directly at the feet of of the neocon train wreck in Washington.  LINK.  Our other area of agreement with Castro is on his choice of cigar...which isn't to say much. Meantime, we expect that at least some arms have arrived, or Chavez would not be labeling the US as a "terrorist state" DETAILS.

 

Putin Takes up Our Mantle

We notice with some pleasure that Vlad Putin is trying to pay off the debts of the Russian government at the "soonest possible date". LINK..  We can't agree more with Vlad on this one.  I case you hadn't noticed, debt is the same as slavery and a person is debt is not free.  Which means there are really how many free people in America?  Can I see a show of hands, please? I mean NO debts that aren't zero'ed out month... Come on...someone besides E & me? Lord help us - a Russian leading the charge for fiscal responsibility.  Have the commies won and are now running America?

 

We're sure they're not running Russia.  But, George Soros says that Russia is no longer a democracy despite the PR blitz.  STORY. 

 

Rapid Onset AIDS

The biggest health story over the weekend involves the emergence of a rapid-onset version of AIDS which follows a new strain of HIV making the rounds in big cities like NYC which we note is only an hour or two from Atlanta, or 6 from San Francisco.  Yet scientists are urging calm LINK. Meantime, my son's project to bring instant on-call HIV testing to the Northwest ( www.testnw.com ) is not being overrun with clients, which means apathy is still the biggest enemy out there.

 

It Ain't Web Bots But...

The article about the Princeton EGG's is not new to us... http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126649 but thanks to the dozen or so readers who picked it up and sent it along.  The principle is the same, in the sense that both technologies are involved in picking up the "bow wave" from massively impacting future emotional events before they happen.

 

New Computer

Elaine and I ventured off to the local CompUSA store on Sunday to pick up a Valentine's Day present for E.  When the bill was rung up, I noticed the price was $1,200+.  "Say, how do we get to $1,250-something off a $699 computer?" I wondered.  "Well, sir, that'd be the rebates.  You've got one for the router, one for the printer, one for the computer, plus there's a coupon inside the box, plus....."  "So all this is paperwork?  I do enough of this crap at the office - so I have to do the paperwork here to get the computer?" I wondered.  "Yes sir...."

 

OK, so E has a new computer but we will not roll over everything onto the new box until we sort through the rebates and double check that we are really getting a computer for the $699 advertised price.  I don't need a discounted meal...I want a good computer price and all the coupons on God's green earth don't fix the issue of "does it work?" and "does it support extended desktop after SP2 for XP is installed?"  Then, and only then, will we wangle our way through the paperwork.

 

Speaking of computer gripes:  I received my business DSL box from SBC last week and tried to fire it up for four days.  "Solly sir," one SBC  jobjack in the Philippines told me, "But your due date isn't until the 14th..."  "Bet me, this won't work on the 14th if it isn't working now...." I challenged.  "I'm solly sir, but you will have to believe me it will work on the 14th as promised...." 

 

We'll see, but expect a huge anti- SBC rant (nothing libelous, as truth is the defense against event the best/worst of lawyering) if it doesn't work.  If it does (as the stroke of midnight, then all will be forgiven and I will be proven a globalist paranoiac.  Which I doubt sincerely, but I would love to be proven wrong...) (I will commend SBC as the best telco on earth.  But we're 4-hours from due date and it's not working yet.  So, we'll see, huh?

 

 

News from Elliott Wave International

 
Google
The Web UrbanSurvival Only

On to Our Charts!

 

Write when you get rich,

 

George Ure, The People's Economist


   

Bulldog Editions when noted are  the "early editions".  Check back later for a more complete update. Bulletins as warranted.  Normal byte times are 8:30  AM (or earlier) CDT Monday-Friday.  Weekends as the spirit moves us.