Updated:  Saturday   November 29, 2003              "News with a twist of money..."

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Christmas Forecast: White to Green

As you'd expect, there are dozens of stories on this Saturday morning about what a great Christmas season started yesterday...and it's just the thing to fix the ailing economy:  http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031128/retail_holiday_9.html  and http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/11/28/sprj.hs03.holiday.shopping/index.html have the optimistic side.

Bucking Reality

Even if the U.S. has a mildly positive Christmas season, it won't do a hill of beans for the larger economic problems we face, like a collapsing dollar on international markets.  Big players (Soros and Buffett) are taking the bet that says the buck will drop anywhere from 20% or more in 2004: http://www.nypost.com/business/43258.htm

End of the 1920's Replay?

If you've read any of the early papers in our library section at www.urbansurvival.com/library.htm, you'll know that one of the social mood markers of the 1920's that I've referred to a number of times was the tattoo craze.  Now, says an A.P. report, it looks like that fad is slowing down and getting ready to end here on the front of Depression II:  http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA6BV8CLND.html.  To say that the good times are over - and have been since 2000's March market peak, doesn't mean the end of the world - yet.  That'll happen when all the Baby Boomers reach retirement age only to find that their mutual funds values have dropped precipitously and that purchasing power of their life's work has been looted - and government won't be able to pay for their needs in their later years.  That's one reason why we bought a farm in Texas - because we expect that while trying to live on a farm was exactly the wrong thing to do last Depression, it'll be exactly the right thing to do this time around - as food prices (and additives) will continue their ascent. Not that we won't continue seeing an increase in the markets on paper, but when you take the stock market advance and back out monetary inflation, you get a whole different look at how the economy is "growing". 

Now Hear U.S.

One of the great lessons of the Cold War is that the Soviet Empire collapsed along its Western Electronic Frontier.  Yeah, I've told you before, that what brought down Communism wasn't a superior Constitution and democratic dream - it was just tapping into the natural greed of deprived people.  Hence, where Western television signals made it to the East, people became dissatisfied with having borscht instead of Burger King and Zephyrs instead of Z-cars.  OK, fast forward 24 years.  The U.S. is planning to give out crank-powered AM & Shortwave radios in Afghanistan to tap into some of that natural consumer mojo: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAX33GFLND.html 

Tinder Dry Texas and other EO's

EO's being "environmental oddities" and they are definitely on the rise....Those floods in Houston a few weeks back didn't help the northwest portions of Texas, where there's an unseasonable fire warning out today: http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/017.html   Meantime, speaking of weather and such, this odd note from a Denver reader:

George,

The Chemtrails over Denver this morning were horizon to horizon.  Long parallel white lines of non-dissipation covered the sky and were still being made as I looked on with new lines being drawn between existing lines.  All very high altitude.  I hurried home, put on a filter mask and am staying in.  Earlier this summer I got a bronchitis-like respiratory infection and wondering if a connection exists.  During the summer....windows open.   Today's weather warmer than past two weeks.

Of course the official explanation is that such things are normal aircraft contrails. You're not supposed to be searching around the net for those wild-eyed stories about how highly reflective materials are being put into the upper atmosphere by equipment in lavatory service units of commercial jets on sites like http://www.carnicom.com/contrails.htm where something other than the "official" answers might leak out.  Meantime from the web bots, this interesting EO snip off a discussion group:

I live near the East Coast and have been noticing the high

tides have been getting alarmingly high. I have never in my

life observed this before. The other day on the radio in the

morning I heard a warning for flooding in low lying areas due

to the tides. This I have never heard before either.

We've had 20 to 50 foot waves crashing into the north east

side of all the Hawaii islands [Nov 25]. This has never

happened before.

EO's Forecast:  Our latest guess on when the next round of X-Class flare threats will come around again puts the window opening in the December 17-19 range...

Trampled Rights:

You remember the Constitution.  Well, here's a story about some folks in government who apparently don't: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A20028-2003Nov28?language=printer

On the other hand, with things like missing ammonium nitrate, U.S. authorities are still on edge about anything quirky...like this item: http://www.kobtv.com/index.cfm?viewer=storyviewer&id=6564&cat=HOME

Taiwan: Unhappy Compromise

There's an old saying in politics that a good decision is one which makes both sides about equally angry.  With this framework, Taiwan's latest moves look brilliant - making lots of people mad internally and angering China, too. m Read about this unhappy compromise in a good Prvda analysis at http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2003/11/28/51534.html.

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French Get Something Right?

You may recall about 6-7 months ago there was a bit of coverage about how Muslim women in Florida were being allowed to continue wearing their headscarves in drivers license pictures.  Well, along comes France and says No!  No headscarves because it infringes on (you'll love this) equal rights... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3248614.stm  Has the world gone nuts, or am I deranged?

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Friday

National "Call Your Broker" Day

That's what a lot of people in the biz refer to this as...while most Americans are home chewing on leftovers, the rookie brokers of the world will all be in their offices today fielding what are almost certain to be record numbers of calls. http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/28/markets/stockswatch/index.htm  With mutual funds being slammed, with the dollar at record lows compared to the Euro  http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031128/markets_forex_3.html (which means $400 gold today is a possibility) the phones ought to be ringing off the hook.

Strategy:  If the dollar is going to tank (duh...) then why would you hold anything denominated in dollars - except a house you can pay off with cheaper dollars as this "pesoazation" in the wake of NAFTA continues?  You know if you had put money in a Canadian bank you'd be up over 10% in a year and at no risk practically speaking!!! You'd get interest (at higher than US rates) plus the currency swing!

You don't need to call, if you're a (stock price) fundamentalist.  You'll just sit back and observe how much shopping goes on today.  In one forecast, we might see the lowest turn out of shoppers since the dull 1997 season   or you'll get enough numbers to make your head spin this early on the "day after" http://www.nypost.com/business/12016.htm.

We did a little cleaning and fixing up of our own online shopping section on Thursday.  See: www.urbansurvival.com/mall1.htm to start.  Elaine made clam chowder for dinner (great!) and we avoided the hours and hours of prep for the same number of calories that a big tom and stuffing would have provided.  But we're a little older, over a thousand miles from the closest of our kids, and a turkey big enough to be worth cooking would give us a year or more of leftovers. But we hope you had a great turkey at your house...

Dueling Diners

President Bush really did the right thing over Thanksgiving and flew to Iraq for a surprise visit with U.S. forces there.  Even a skeptic has to admit that it was a ballsy - and stand up - thing to do: http://www.drudgereport.com/flashbb.htm.  Of course part of it may have been motivated by polls, but we expect it was both from the heart and to counter what would otherwise have been a major media coup by her Senatorness, Hillary C.  who was out "campaigning" among U.S. troops:  http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031127/D7V35R5G0.html in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Major Progress Against al Qaida

There's been so much progress in the War on Terror that you'd think this was Christmas, and Santa Claus was delivering goodies.  The pieces are scattered, but when you add them up - it's progress.  Let's go through the list of successes:

• First, in South Korea, an apparent al Qaida operative has been arrested while apparently testing airport security going into South Korea http://216.26.163.62/2003/ea_skorea_11_27.html sparking speculation that aQ might have been planning something along the ultra-tense border.

• Then there's a report that British authorities have captured a man wanted in connection with terrorist concerns - and while the report at http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-britain-terror-arrest,0,3366978.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines gives the basic facts, other reports have it that some explosives were also found.

• Then in Italy, four immigrants, alleged to be terrorist recruiters, have been arrested, reports MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/news/870749.asp?0cv=CB10&cp1=1

With all the minor victories, al Qaida is no doubt being pressured into something else - something big - as US officials are alert to the pressure on al Qaida to try something bigger than 9/11 http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-11-27-alqaeda-usat_x.htm.  While there's major progress, is it enough to prevent a 9/11-type event.  Doubtful, but it would be nice...

More Miami Fallout

It's like the protest over FTAA in Miami has not stopped.  Latest batch of outrages at http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-dabuse28nov28,0,7350740.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines .

Fox Hounded

More than 100,000 people showed up yesterday for a protest in Mexico city over prez Vincente Fox's plans to raise some revenue to make some things happen.  What he's gotten is an unhappy response: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3245462.stm.  Promises of free lunches only works before being elected, Vincente!

PC Comes to PC

Although the terms "master and slave" have been applied to a lot of technology - not just people - leave it to the city of Los Angeles to make a big issue out of commonly used terms:  http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/11/26/master.term.reut/index.html While I suppose the well-intentioned LA move makes sense to non-technical types, it ignores that people think in pictures and hierarchically. Besides, what are the other terms that describe in an easy-to-grasp pictorial sense the same relationship?  Primary and secondary certainly works for hard drives, but when you talk about radar servo-motors, for example, the close linkage of a "primary" to a "secondary" is just not as clear.

Thursday

Israeli Occupation Cost: $290 Million

This week, the US cut loan guarantees to Israel because the country has continued to press forward with new West Bank settlements in violation of the US backed ME Peace plan.  Today, Ariel Sharon announced plans to continue with the controversial fencing project: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3242878.stm  Prediction:  Palestinian bombings and terror in response to the Israeli escalation.  Can anyone else spell "cause and effect?" 

Indo-Pak: Short Cease Fire Over

Along the tense India-Pakistan border, 12-dead in a grenade attack on a marketplace: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA9TZHQIND.html   Times of India's take on this is that it ends the one day old Indo-Pak ceasefire: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/325292.cms

$400 Gold - Again...

Although the price on Kitco ticked slightly over $400 a week and a half back for a few seconds, the penetration of $400 was longer and more meaningful yesterday: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=568&u=/nm/20031126/bs_nm/minerals_gold_stocks_dc_1&printer=1  The reason why it's been stomped back down, according to some reports, it that the derivatives world melts down about $401 - so the powers that be can't afford to see it over $401/$402 or it will go ballistic.  Terror concerns have nothing to do with the price - it's the falling value of the dollar that's doing it.

Soros the Revolutionary?

The Globe and Mail this morning reports that George Soros may have indirectly aided the turnover in government of Russian Georgia: http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031126.wxsoros1126/BNStory/Front/  With Shevardnadze out of the way, presumably Soros will focus on efforts toward keeping  the guy in the flight suit from getting re-elected. Eduard meantime lays a sour grapes rap on the US in a BBC interview: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3242652.stm

Amnesty International: Independent Miami Probe

Press release worth reading:

AI INDEX: AMR 51/142/2003     26 November 2003

Printer friendly

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL
PRESS RELEASE

AI Index: AMR 51/142/2003 (Public)
News Service No: 268
26 November 2003

USA: Allegations of excessive use of force and ill-treatment of protestors in Miami

Amnesty International called today for a full and independent inquiry into allegations of excessive use of force by police during demonstrations in Miami on 20th November. The organization has also received dozens of reports of ill-treatment of those detained during the demonstration.

Police are reported to have fired rubber bullets and used batons, pepper spray, tear gas canisters and concussion grenades on crowds demonstrating against the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) negotiations, leaving some people hospitalized and dozens more treated for injuries. Scores of people, including journalists and observers, were arrested during the demonstration, some reportedly subjected to ill-treatment in detention. Amnesty International is currently gathering more information on the reported violations.

"The level of force used by police does not appear to have been at all justified." Amnesty International said, noting reports that only a small minority of demonstrators had engaged in acts of violence.

Miami Police Chief John Timoney today issued a letter to the media stating that his department would be undertaking a comprehensive review of the FTAA security operation and would produce a public report.

"Any investigation into the violence in Miami must be fully independent and must also look into allegations of ill-treatment following arrest. If the force used is shown to have been excessive, then those involved should be disciplined, measures put in place and training given to ensure future policing operations in Miami conform to international standards.", Amnesty International stressed.

Amnesty International is investigating reports that some of those arrested during the demonstrations have been subjected to ill-treatment while in detention. One woman is reported to have been strip-searched by four male officers and left naked. Other reports suggest that detainees have been beaten and sprayed with pepper gas and high-powered water hoses inside Dade County Jail.

"If these allegations are true, Amnesty International would call on anyone found responsible to be brought to account in accordance with international standards" Most of those arrested are reported to have since been released, but Amnesty International is seeking information as to the legal status of any still held.

An event organized by the Miami chapter of Amnesty International during the demonstration was also hindered by police who surrounded the area and refused people access.

AK-47 Exhibit

Something that caught our eye this morning, and might be be something to visit next times you're in the Netherlands (if you can pull yourself away from the coffee joints - pun, get it??) is the new AK-47 exhibit opening in the small town of Delft. http://newsfromrussia.com/science/2003/11/20/51369.html  I have to remember to mention this to a cousin of mine who collects Stratocaster guitars and AK's.  Mark your calendar for next Tuesday in Moscow if you're an arms dealer: http://newsfromrussia.com/science/2003/11/11/51127.html

Visitors?

Mystery of the day:  The International Space Station where the astronauts heard a mysterious sound which has a few scientists puzzled: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/printstory.hts/space/2252777     Maybe it was ET's trying to drop by to wish the ISS a happy fifth birthday: http://newsfromrussia.com/science/2003/11/20/51368.html.  OK, seriously.  Our bet: Space junk.

If You Agree To Be Sick...

...then you'll probably get the flu this winter.  Mayo Clinic folks are predicting the worst in 30-years: http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&expire=&urlID=8362150&fb=Y&partnerID=1660. On the other hand, with 3- 9-volt batteries in series and a buck's worth of silver wire from a jewelry store (make sure it's pure, not the sterling stuff!) you can make a dandy fresh colloidal silver solution for gargling and the like. 

Readers Writes:

On our observation that big monuments seem to spring up at the end of civilizations came this learned observation...

Hi George:

Regarding your comment that high civilizations build big monuments just

before they die off...this is a common trend at lower levels. Typically,

when trends have recently passed their peak and just starting to inch down,

the sudden "autumnal" chill brings protestations of power and ubiquity. Look

at the dotcoms - the big monuments (e.g. "Qualcomm Stadium", NASDAQ animated

building wall) were built in 2000 - just when things began to head down. In

music, rap-founder Russell Simmons has been proclaiming the ubiquity of

rap/hip-hop culture just as sales began to slide (2001). I suspect the

desire for monuments appears when a civilization feels suddenly unsure of

its values, and attempts to create outer-world "anchors" to keep the values

slide from picking up steam.

Pete Markiewicz

www.indiespace.com 

And on our observations about Nostradamus and Asian Navies...

George,

First, I would really like to say that I really enjoyed your sight. Very good reading, and I like your sense of humor. However, the classical meaning of the Latin word "oriente" does not just mean "India". Oriente meant the Eastern side of the Roman Empire. By the 300 B.C., the Empire became so big that there were really two emperors - one to rule the Western Empire which today consists of Italy, France (Gaul), modern Spain, Etc. The Eastern empire (oriente) consisted of Greece, Lebanon, many of the ex-soviet states of today (like Macedonia), and pretty much all the land up to modern-day Iran. The term "Ex Oriente lux" referred more to the growth of the "mystery religions" from the East that became popular in Roman - such as Christianity, Mithra, and Zoroastianianism. Most of these religions came from the Persians or the various tribes of Semitic peoples coming from the Arab peninsula.

Thank you so much. Besides that, I really like the sight.

Web Wars

Google is changing the way it searches sites.  http://www.nypost.com/business/11930.htm And if you are using the highly recommended SpyBot Search and Destroy program to keep your computer from being loaded up with lousy spyware, there's a new update out today...

Push Button Orgasms and No Takers?

No kidding...A doctor is having trouble finding women to help him test a device that causes orgasms in women.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3241138.stm.  This lends a different dimension to a woman telling a man "You can be replaced by a battery powered device...

Wednesday:

Reader:  What's With the Whales?

A very smart reader (Brad)  has beaten us to the punch by spotting a couple of mass whale beachings.  It has him - and us - wondering what's up?  In the Caribbean, 36 pilot whales beached themselves http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2003/11/25/international1400EST0593.DTL&type=printable and half way around the world 100 other pilot whales have beached http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/afp/20031125/sc_afp/australia_whales_031125075113.  Does all this have something to do with the earth's magnetosphere?  Is it a prelude to a massive earthquake somewhere?  The odds two groups of pilot whales getting disoriented for random reasons,  at the same time half way around the world from each other, seem pretty low to us.  Too early to tell, but there are the beaches, and there are the whales - and there is the question. What are they hearing/sensing/feeling that's caused them to beach?

X Watch   

The chance of an X Class solar flare is fairly small but still 10% today, dropping to 5% tomorrow  from sunspot 488, aimed just about squarely at earth.  Click over to http://spaceweather.com/ for more.  Meantime, we understand from sources that several web servers that focus on solar activity have been overloaded by traffic.  That means the public is becoming aware of the potential danger from such events.

Constitution in Trouble:  118 New "Security"  Laws Pending...

Thanks to another reader that spied the Jeff Rense site listing of more than 100 new "security" regulations pending in Washington, which while well intended (we hope) appear to be backdoor attempts at things like gun control - and a lot more.  http://www.rense.com/general45/bills.htm.

Since 9/11:  Open Borders - Still!

The Washington Times reports today that in the past 2-years, nearly three million foreigners have come to the U.S. - and of these about half are illegals.  http://www.washtimes.com/national/20031125-113936-7416r.htm  It makes a sane person ask "If we've got all these security laws in the wake of 9/11, why are the borders STILL leaking like a sieve?"  Of course, we all know the answer:  Illegal immigrants are a big business.

Kidnapping:  Al Qaida's Next Tactic

With the arrest of an alleged al Qaida kingpin by Yemen http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3238188.stm and with the Saudi's preventing a car bombing planned for the Kingdom, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3237876.stm, There's a report this morning from exceptionally well-informed Debka.com that aQ may be planning kidnappings, hoping to try and ransom some of their cohorts out of jail: http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=704.

Guess Who's Coming to Dinner?

Hillary Clinton - that is if you're having Turkey day in Iraq.  G.I.'s  might find Hill chowing down nearby.  Her Senatorness is planning to have a high profile T-Day with U.S. troops: http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ny--clintonabroad1125nov25,0,536143,print.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire which sure looks to us like the kind of thing a presidential hopeful would be doing.  25¢ Bet: Come Democratic Convention Time, Hillary will come waltzing in with a big "spontaneous" "Draft Hillary" campaign, and try to swipe the nomination from the candidates who went through the primaries.  Bet me?

U.N. Waffle

With the U.S. on one side pressing the (oil inspired?) notion that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, and several major European nations on the other saying "Hold on a minute...", the U.N. did the predictable:  Waffled on the Iran Nuclear resolution.  Report at http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/world/wire/ats-ap_intl15nov26,0,4407415.story?coll=sns-ap-topinternational

Up?  Down?  Sideways?

Report that the economy is looking better:  New York Daily News: http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/140113p-124369c.html

Also cheery sounding at the global level in this Reuter's report: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=3893821

But at the same time, less than optimistic about holiday spending according to a different Reuters report: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031125/economy_shopping_3.html

Fund Probes

Citigroup reportedly under the US Attorney General's microscope now:  http://www.nypost.com/business/11852.htm

A Modern Sphinx?

If you've read any of Graham Hancock's books, like Fingerprints of the Gods...

 

...You'll no doubt have been struck by the questions raised by the erection of the Sphinx, reportedly 13-thousand (or so) years ago. You may also be well enough read to know that a high culture built the Sphinx and then  was mysteriously lost in the sands of history.  Although there are plenty of theories about what happened to past high civilizations, the popular "scientific" explanations don't explain everything.

This morning, I happened across this story about the building of Crazy Horse memorial at http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2003/11/25/news/regional/7097bb00037d21af86256de9001dbeec.txt

It got me to thinking:  Is this what high civilizations do just before they die off?  Build big monuments?  Sphinx 13,000 years ago, pyramids, 6,500 years ago, and now this?  I wonder what future cultures, 6-thousand years hence, will make of the Crazy Horse Memorial, or Mount Rushmore?

Tuesday

Steelworkers:  Miami "Police State"

We've been telling you that free speech is in trouble.  Latest to step up and remember this is still a Constitutional Republic:  The United Steelworkers of America:

PITTSBURGH — The United Steelworkers of America (USWA) is calling for a Congressional investigation into "a massive police state," created in part with federal funds, to intimidate union members and others critical of the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and limit their rights during FTAA meetings in Miami last week.

"Last week, the fundamental rights of thousands of Americans … were blatantly violated, sometimes violently, by the Miami police, who systematically repressed our Constitutional right to free assembly with massive force, riot gear and armaments," said Leo W. Gerard, USWA international president, in a letter to Congressional leaders.

"It is condemnable enough that a massive police state was created to prevent American citizens from directly petitioning FTAA negotiators for redress of their grievances," Gerard said in the letter.

"It is doubly condemnable," he added, "that $9 million of federal funds designated for the reconstruction of Iraq were used toward this despicable purpose. How can we hope to build democracy in Iraq while using massive force to dismantle it here at home?"

More at http://www.uswa.org/uswa/program/content/737.php   One word editorial:  Amen.

Oh Brother!

There's a report about a Bush brother divorce in the Houston Chronicle that is interesting as all heck...and if you haven't read it, prepare yourself for an eye popper  at http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2241139.  (Thanks to foreign correspondent [Canadian Tim B] for spotting this...] I've got an MBA and have done a little international business and no one is offering me 2-mill.  Maybe if I had a different last name...yeah...dats it....

The Truth is Out There...

Is This a Message about Social Security? http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10055.html

See Spot...

The recent flurry of interest in sunspots all over the web, and the sun's X-28 (or bigger) flare about 3 1/2 weeks back) has dramatically increased the number of people looking at the SOHO/LASCO satellite site run by NASA.  There's a great backgrounder in the Gray Lady at http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/25/science/25SOLA.html?ex=1070341200&en=69e78e5263aacf48&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

Nothing too scary from Jim  McCanney's interview on AM Coast to Coast last night with George Noory - and if you want to read McCanney's notes, they're at http://www.jmccanneyscience.com/NooryC2C11242003shownotes.htm.

Other heavenly matters:  A number of observers have noted how many of the spacecraft sent in the direction of Mars have failed to achieve their mission objectives.  Latest miss: a Canadian payload: http://www.canada.com/vancouver/vancouversun/story.asp?id=6220C708-9D53-4148-A996-C720B0ED63C6   [And to complete the synchronistic symmetry of the universe, you did notice the story was in the Vancouver "sun", right?]

Cyclops - Powerless!

We've mentioned to you several times how a tiny shift in consumer behaviors can lead to big consequences, right?  Now Nielsen (the TV ratings people) are in trouble with the Big Media TV Con-Gloms about ratings because new Nielsen stats show that young males are spending more time with computers, DCD's, X-Boxes, and other eDistractions and less with with Cyclops (the one-eyed monster - television).  As a result - and predictably - the people who make a living off TV are trying to shoot the messenger: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/entertainment/7341887.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp The real issue continues to be "How long can television programmed for idiots make money?"  The content of so many shows is 8th to 9th grade level, based on "lowest common denominator" thinking, that I'm continuously amazed anyone over 14 watches (except PBS and Bloomberg,  of course.)  Come on, when was the last time you saw a TV show that caused you to say "Wow!  That was interesting...I didn't know that!".  Never, maybe?  Speaking of ratings driven...

A Different Kind of Comedy?

CNBC, reports the NY Post, is changing up "Business Center" to bring in comedian Dennis Miller and Kudlow & Kramer will move out of prime to fringe/early fringe (8 PM moving to 5 PM).  http://www.nypost.com/business/11718.htm

On Our Watch List: New Iraq Disease

Report in the Daily New today about the "Baghdad Boil" -also known as "black fever" in Iraq with up to 800 GI's being treated:  http://www.nydailynews.com/news/col/story/139835p-124146c.html

8:30 AM Click

You should be able to click here http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm after 8:30 Eastern this morning and read first hand the latest economic numbers - which are bound to be optimistic...  Also - be sure and read the latest updated market outlook from UCLA's Didier Sornette:  http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction

Readers Writes

Brain Food: Asian Navy's Nostradamus Tie?

You know I've been watching the growth of Asian navies with interest.  A reader this morning write:

Your brief comments on "Asian Navies" reminded me of a book I read, Hindu Destiny in Nostradamus, by G.S. Hiranyappa (published in 1986). In this book, the author explains that he believes that Nostradamus was trying to say that that China and Muslims will start a world war against American and Russia. North Africa and Europe will already have been taken over by Muslims. Scotland would not be taken over. If you look at the rate at which Muslims are immigrating to Europe and look at birthrates of Muslims in Europe versus non-Muslims, it does appear that at the rate the Muslim population in Europe is growing, it will become a dominant minority in Europe in the future. Hiranyappa further interprets that Nostradamus hints that Hindus will take a leading role in defeating the Chinese/Muslims. Even though I try to keep a healthy level of skepticism, the author's translations and interpretations seem very plausible. The book is copyright, so I am just quoting a few parts that show the Hindu role in defeating the "Chinese/Muslim" forces.

Pages 6-7: Hinduism will destroy Islam

Quatrain 96, Century X:

Religion du nom des mers vaincra,

Contre le sect fils Adulancatif,

Secte obinee deploree craindra,

Des deux blessez par Aleph and Aleph.

 

G.S. Hiranyappa's interpretation:

Religion named after the seas will be victorious,

Against the sons of the Caliph's adalat or rule.

Obstinate (fanatical) deplorable (worthless) sect will greatly fear, The two (religions) injured by Alif and Alif.

 

Hiranyappa's text is in quotation marks:

"There is only one ocean named after a religion. This is the Hindu Mahaa Saagar, known in the West as the Indian Ocean. No other religion has an ocean bearing its name." I would further add that Hindu comes from the Greek pronunciation of the Sindu River (known as the Indus River). "Adulancatif is a portmanteau anagram for caliph--adalat." Sons of the Calif refers to Muslims. The first Calif was Abu Bakar, the father of Muhammad's favorite wife, Ayesha. "The two religions injured or harmed by Alif and Alif of the last line are Hinduism and Judaism. Alif is the first letter in the Koran, the Moslem holy-book. At Hindu holy-places like Banares and Prayag (Allahabad), the Moslems have desecrated temples and built mosques. Similar sacrilege has also been committed by Islamic fanatics at the site of the sacred Jewish Wailing-Wall in Jerusalem. The mosque of the Dome of the Rock has been erected on the Jewish holy-ground adjoining the Wailing Wall."

 

Pages 11-12: The New Golden Age will be Created by Hindus and Sikhs

Quatrain 85, Century X:

Tant attendu ne reviendra jamais,

Dedans l'Europe, en Asie apparoistra,

On de la ligue islu du grand Hermes,

Et sur tous rois des Orients croistra.

 

G.S. Hiranyappa's interpretation:

Long awaited, he will never return

In Europe, In Asia he will appear:

One of the special league of the great Hermes,

And he will grow more powerful than any other king of the Hindus.

 

"Nostradamus was a deep scholar in Latin. He uses Latin words in their classical sense. Orient in former days meant only India. Later the meaning was extended to cover all of the east. In the Rome of the Caesars, there was well-known saying: Ex Occidente lex, Ex Oriente lux. From the West comes law, from India comes spiritual light." "Hermes was the Greek god of astrology and forecasting. Nostradamus prophesies that the spirit of prophecy will never return to Europe....A representative of the tradition of Hermes will appear in Asia, however." "The last line of the quatrain verse makes it clear beyond a doubt that this far-seeing leader will be a Hindu."

There are other related quatrains and interpretations in this books as well.

All of which makes for interesting brain food.  I tried to find a copy of the book on Amazon this morning - and couldn't.  If you know where to find one, please let me know? 

Turkey One Meets.....

We'll let you figure out who's Turkey One here...  Too good to pass up: a picture of GWB petting "Stars", a 21-week old 45-pound tom who has been voted the National Thanksgiving Turkey... 

The genuine National Turkey Federation story at http://www.eatturkey.com/press/conspr/stars.html.   Stars and Stripes to be "Stars" and Stuffin'?

Monday

A Quiet Revolution

It only took a weekend, but there's been a change of government over the weekend in Russia's Georgia.  BBC coverage at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3232158.stm makes two points:  Eduardo Shevardnadze (president out) lost his rule because the Army wouldn't support him.  Second point:  The Georgians want $5-million in US aid to run elections.  Not to be skeptical here, but I remember the contentious nature of our last presidential contest - and in looking at what the choices are coming up in '04 I've got to ask "Are they sure they want our help?"

Wars of Attrition

In Iraq this weekend, the horror of war rose to new heights with Iraqis slitting the throats of two American soldiers. http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&u=/ap/20031123/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_630&printer=1

In Afghanistan, meantime, 5 died in a chopper crash: http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/central/11/23/afghanistan.copter.ap/index.html

Automation = Unemployment

You may have noticed that the Baghdad airport was reportedly closed to commercial traffic this weekend due to a commercial cargo plane being shot with a rocket and landing with one of its wings on fire.  It's with this in mind that a technology article in Reuters caught our eye this morning - about robotic flying machines and how they might replace humans: http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=3877295  The story doesn't go far enough in extending the thought - to airline pilots and passengers, but we'll give you credit for brains enough to figure out the impact on pilot careers could be...   Lesson?  Job jacking occurs because of either wildly disparate prevailing wages/currency differentials which can be profitably exploited OR automation.  Remember what tractors did to horse ranchers in the 1920's?

More on Asian Navies

Lest you think I've taken up the fulltime study of Asian naval improvements as an indicator of growing force projection in the region, I'm almost afraid to point out that India has fired it's latest surface-to-surface missile: http://www.spacewar.com/2003/031123124531.7n28edno.html  or that that North and South Korea are battling at sea again: http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/ap11-23-230952.asp?reg=PACRIM.

Nuke or No?

The U.S. seems to be taking on the U.N. over whether Iran has nuclear weapons.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3228400.stm.

Reading Your Rights:

New issue of Cigar Aficionado features an interview with General Tommy Franks, who reportedly says if there's a real mass destruction terrorist attack on U.S. soil you can kiss what's left of the Constitutional liberties goodbye.  That means something coming from the "soldier's general."  Also on the Constitutionalist's reading list: A report on how civil right were stomped in Miami last week from the editorial pages of the Miami Herald at http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/jim_defede/7328687.htm 

It's the Interviews -- Honest!

The 50th anniversary issue of Playboy hits the stands this morning, and by the NY Post review at http://www.nypost.com/business/11613.htm, this issue of the magazine is a keeper for more than just the (we suspect airbrushed a bit here and there) pictures.  In fact, if someone asked me to define the perfect writing style for the web, it would be a "cross between Playboy After Hours and the best of investigative reports in Atlantic Monthly."  A sly wit, cynic's eye, and insatiable curiosity about what's really going on.
 

Funny Money:

The Washington Post reports that the U.S. mint is seeking promising artists to prepare new coins.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8733-2003Nov23.html.  My suggestions?  (You sure you want these?)  Vargas engravings (of Playboy fame) for a new $1 million dollar bill ("You look like a million bucks!").  Or, how about Berke Breathed's penguin Opus from Bloom County?  I think Opus, holding a bag with a perplexed look, might be appropriate on the back of a 40¢ purchasing power $1 bill in the not too distant future....  Here's a 2001 article on Breathed  http://search.csmonitor.com/durable/2001/02/08/fp23s2-csm.shtml   Anyone want to join my Committee to Bring Back Opus?

Holiday Week

This week could turn into a mighty tussle between the bulls and the bears in the markets.  What the Bulls have going for them will be the economic numbers coming out tomorrow - which are bound (this being an election year) to show "substantial strength" in the economy.  Plus, add to that the joy of a normal pre-Holiday market bias. Don't forget Friday is "National Call Your Broker Day" - the day when more people call their broker seeking advice than any other days of the year.  Bears, on the other hand, have the closing of gold futures contracts today, which coupled with Barrick telling the world that they were getting out of forward gold sales might result in a pop today or tomorrow. 

This morning, with gold down in the pre-opening, the bear case doesn't look very promising, but a lot can happen between now and 1:30 EST when the gold trade closes.  Another thing the Bears have going is the chance of another round of terrorism, with Ramadan ending tomorrow, some militants may want to mark things with a bang.  As always, the difficult task is trying to anticipate market moves in advance - but for now, despite an elevated terror concern in London, the European markets are up - and unless there's a big terrorist hit somewhere, the week should trend upward.

We Could Skip the Turkey

And get right to opening presents.  The NY Post reports today that hundreds of radio stations have jumped the gun and are playing Christmas music already: http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/C/CHRISTMAS_RADIO?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=BUSINESS.  Perhaps those Christmas in July sales have warped us all.  More likely?  Largely connected political radio exec's have been prodded to hype the living heck out of Christmas so the economy doesn't backslide into recession again.... 

Looking Ahead...

A learned colleague, Dr. Stephen Rinehart periodically sends us updates on what he sees ahead - and his predictions (which take out exogenous events) have been instructive in the past.  Here's his latest update:

Special Bonus Report

NYSE COMPOSITE PREDICTED THRU 2006

By Dr Stephen A Rinehart

Date: Nov 2003

 

Background: A Russian economist by the name of Nickolai Kondratieff (1892-1938) was the originator of a major premise that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of growth (i.e., boom) and deflation (i.e., bust) in a period ranging from 50 to 60 years in duration.  A series of band-pass filters were run on the weekly closing prices of the NYSE Composite Index from 1950. The largest cycle was a 36-year cycle (i.e., 1800-week cycle) in addition to a 9-year cycle (444-week cycle) as well as monthly, quarterly and yearly cycles. The cycles were projected forward to the next several years to give an overall picture of coming events. The cycles are not stationary (change over time) but the largest cycles shift slowly and give a good feel for the possible future market moves in the NYSE composite.

 

Predicted Waveform for 2004:

 

The NYSE Composite is expected to form a “double top” followed by a possible sharp drop from mid-June or July thru late Sept followed by a brief rally to a lower high in Nov 2004.  The values shown on the graphs are normalized by dividing the current value of the NYSE Composite Index by 10. Thus, the predicted high on 02.26.04 of 623 would actually be 632 x 10 = 6320.

GOLD AND SILVER INDEX (XAU) PREDICTED THRU 2004

 

BACKGROUND: A close  friend (and trader)  told me in the 1980s that he had very profitably traded a 13-week to 15-week cycle in gold for many years (including the 1981 run-up). Recently, I took a look at the daily closing prices of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) to see if the trading cycle was still present.

 

The 80-day trading cycle from the early 1980s increased dramatically as the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the Silver market.

 

Note that Dr. Rinehart's work is very logical and mathematically oriented.  I'm still wondering if the rumors about big gold firms trying to buy from dealer at $19 over spot Friday is true because if it is - and further if the gold suppression schemes fall apart, the math gets thrown out the window because it will have turned out to be non-market data.  Time will tell, though.

News From Elliott Wave International

On to the Charts!

Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it. And always remember:

△ ≠ Ω but, then again, it might 

George Ure

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All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted