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Tuesday Hi and thanks for dropping by - checking in from my hospital bed in Burbank. As E advised you, I managed to burst my appendix on Sunday so the last 46 hours have been pretty thoroughly miserable being pumped full of drugs (good) and on an all liquid diet (not the vodka martini lunch type, but the broth kind) for the past day. I am due to get out of here around 3 PM and if everything goes according to plan, my rants will resume tomorrow morning.
I have no idea what the size of the check will be for this - turns out the company I am working for didn't get the medical coverage for me processed - so no insurance. This should be an interesting study in health care costs. I am very happy with my Doctor - a fine gentleman who charged a modest $1,500 for his work - laparoscopic if you are into such things - followed by a good flushing and draining. The last out takes of "Alien" were removed from my stomach and I can hardly wait to get get back on something other than a slow dial-up connection.
I figure this whole thing will run about $12,000 - but that's just a guess... I was actually thinking about starting up a pool here and offering some kind of prize for guessing what the actual damages will total when all is said and done. That would be too much fun (there's gotta be a law against it...) My colleagues figure $8K to $26K.
This weekend's Peoplenomics report will deal with the eerie parallels between exchange traded funds (ETF's) of today and the "Trusts" of the 1930's - something that became apparent to me in one of those Darvocet moments.
Thanks for all the emails - but it will be a while responding to each one because of the volume (something north of 200 and counting). Be well, be on the sidelines, and tomorrow morning we'll chat...
George on the gurney.
Sunday Night: George is in the hospital here in Burbank after suffering an emergency appendectomy on Sunday.
If you subscribed to Peoplenomics this week-end your account should be activated Wednesday.
George is doing fine and apologizes for the inconvenience.
If you have an urgent matter send it to my email, texelaine@earthlink.net -- Elaine
Life Planning Saturday I don't know that I have mentioned very often that when I am not writing here at Nutjob Economics, that I am the Executive Director of a vocational school in Southern California. It occurred to me this week I don't talk enough about long term strategic planning for families, especially when there are so many (and interesting) moving parts to the family economic unit. As a result, this week our www.peoplenomics.com report focuses on how to build a multiple income stream family business plan for what is likely to be the Second Depression. Elaine and I have gotten far enough along on our own plan that it's time to share with subscribers. In the broadest terms, it addresses the question of "How do we convert our present net worth into a series of enterprises which will be "depression resistant" and which can provide for some of our family members (kids, etc.)? Subscription information here.
Dennis and Oil We have been watching the path of Hurricane Dennis carefully this morning, because as you can see on the track map at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W5+gif/211039W_sm.gif it's likely to have an impact of gasoline prices. Already, here in the Los Angeles area, we are starting to see gas prices pushing the $2.80 level for premium.
One other thing to notice about the gasoline next time you "fill 'er up" (which may require refinancing your home, we understand) - notice the smell. We have had a lot of anecdotal reports from places like San Francisco that suggest that lower grades of crude are being used in the refining process - meaning fuel with higher levels of sulfur. Which makes the catalytic converts stink even worse than normal. We expect that the addition of the high levels of SO2 which result in more acid rain over the long term, but for our money its the short term impacts to be aware of: people with asthma might want to double check for the inhaler around places where cars for up long grades. That kind of thing.
Supreme Court Rumors We reported earlier this week that there was likely more than just a slip of the tongue to George Bush's comments at the G-8 when he was asked about his Supreme Court nominee to replace Sandra Day O'Connor. We remarked that Bush's use of the plural word "people" he would nominate was a much different kettle of fish than the singular use of "person" he would nominate, which we reckoned would mean that either another resignation was on the way, Bush was contemplating losing on at least one nomination, or he had lost his grip on the use of the language. Well, as it turns out, we've been hearing from many reliable sources that Justice Rehnquist actually resigned almost three weeks ago, but that Bush wanted to hold back the announcement until after the G-8 meeting - which would give the White House time to start working through the nominee list. Now, word is out all over the place that Rehnquist may be a short timer on the bench. See how linguistic changes portend the future?
G-8 - Still a Yawner The political types at the G-8 summit this week haven't wasted any words of praise for themselves - a sort of mega self aggrandizement to fill a whole weekend of wet nurse media coverage. Between the G-8 happy talk, trumped up hype of a "healthy economy" which is in truth much less so when you back out defense spending on our multiple wars, and Dennis coming ashore, we expect little attention will be paid to rooting out the traitor(s) who outed Valerie Plame, but that's how it will work out, right? I think we'll rent a movie.
Terrorists Testing? We notice that an Air France jet from Paris to the USA was turned around 2-hours into its flight because a person on the US "no-fly" list was found to be aboard. This raises two questions: 1) is whether terrorists are testing the TSA's effectiveness on international flights and 2) is something planned for the USA in the coming month or two with no-goodnicks trying to sneak in? (They could always fly into Mexico and then walk across like thousands of others do every day - which is so patently obvious as to be absurd. Unless, the turn around of the flight is just part of the sales process to whip up anti-terror frenzy and hype passage of more rights stealling legislation for everyday folks like us.
For the Shopping List If you haven't been to Trader Joe's yet, we can't recommend the place highly enough - Elaine is doing about half of our grocery shopping there because while the prices may not be the sheapest in two on everything, there are some great values. One of these is a wine called "Two Buck Chuck" and we're pleased to see that Trader Joe's is coming out with more wines from the same vintner in the $4 a bottle class. E seems to prefer another grand buy - California Bubbly with a fresh (organically grown) strawberry in it. But you know what's on my shopping list for this weekend, right? --- We will be watching the news over the weekend and will post updates as events warrant. Please check back any time. If you're looking for reading material, please check out of extensive archives...
Friday BLS: Cooking in Plain Sight Happy Hype Day! Look for the market to go up on reports that go like this one: "Hiring around the country picked up slightly in June with employers adding 146,000 jobs -- helping to push the unemployment rate down to 5 percent, the lowest in nearly four years."
Well, not quite. You know about the Birth-Death Model which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to "correct" it's employment figures, right? So this morning I get a summary from a hawk-eyed reader who sees BLS headlines and then goes looking for the statistical chain which has been jerked to get the numbers reported:
If you doubt and need the source this statistically hip reader cited, check the following BLS chart:
To our way of reading, that would imply that the economy lost 18-thousand jobs in the period, not the 146,000 gain which the wet nurse media report. And our favorite number, the U-6 table under Alternative measures of Labor Underutilization reflected a jump from 8.6% to 9.3% from May. That said, now you know how to read the official press "happy talk" release about June's job numbers:
I do have to give credit to the honest people who work at BLS (to differentiate them from the pols in the place). They at least have published the birth-death model so a knowledgeable person can find the truth. Now if we could just wean the financial press from "press release madness" and get them to thinking again and asking real questions, rather than being a rubber stamp operation... An Insight from London As you might expect, I received dozens of emails following the London bomb attacks yesterday, but there's a lingering question about who was behind the attacks. One line of thinking goes that it really was al Qaeda, witness the use of bombs and it looked similar to the Madrid attacks. Others, though, aren't so sure. Noting unusual selling of the British Pound vs. to Dollar a full five hours ahead of the attack, specifically at 2245 hours EST on July 6th.
But of all the emails I received, the one which has vexed me most is one from our Canadian correspondent Tim B who offers this disturbing thought:
There are lots of other dots to try and connect, for sure, including the continuing reports that the Israelis were given a heads up about the attack. Once again, we would like to see a federal grand jury with impartial management go looking into this, but is that likely? No. One other line of thinking to consider from our friend the Fractal Economist:
I guess hoping for a citizen-driven grand jury to look at the profits made yesterday is a far-fetched notion, considering that we haven't had complete disclosure about 9/11. What we wonder now is whether we will get a big "event" between now and say next week at this time on the theory that this is really a big battle between "factions" that really run the world - the political/NWO people, the oil patch giants, and so forth. Time will tell, but as we enter the weekend, there are apparently many people besides those of us here at Nutjob Economics that are asking the same kinds of questions. Predictable G-8 When they aren't busy talking about how we "need the Patriot act" or similar, we saw little more than the expected out of the G8.
Rain Warnings We notice that as Hurricane Dennis is getting ready to show up this weekend, and the remnants of Cindy are on walkabout, the rain and flooding is back in the Caribbean. Our friends in the Cayman Island report they haven't fully recovered from last year. We wish them luck this time around. We even notice that at our ranch in East Texas there's a bit of precip this morning.
Backgrounder: Iran's Gas Reserves We'd like you to put this article on Iran's gas reserves on your reading list, just in case it's sudden discovered that Iran is somehow connected to the bombings in London this week. Because a number of pols including Tony Blair have already blamed al Qaeda, a switch is not as likely, but it has worked in the past, so why not use a single event to drive multiple agendas?
Peoplenomics On our subscription side, we focus on the grand proliferation of laws in America - www.peoplenomics.com for the summary and subscription information.
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Thursday Who Knew About London??? I received the following email from a reader this morning in reaction to what I think has been our fairly even-handed coverage of the London bombings that have now killed 40 and wounded more than 300. This one is a shocker if you follow the implications. Here's the reader's email and you can noodle out what it means for yourself:
It's OK, paranoia isn't all bad - in point of fact, it's a survival skill. If I had any sway in CONgress, I would sure be asking the Fed all kinds of questions about the $20-billion in "easy money" out this week - in advance of the London attack... more grist for the LIHOP/MIHOP crowd. And I won't even mention the banging on Gold and Silver over the preceding week! Here's hoping a federal grand jury will look at some of the big plays in advanced of events. London: Terror, False Flag, or Precursor Event? A series of explosions rocked London today - according to some reports, there were three explosions on busses and one hit the London underground. Initial reports had it that as many as 7 explosions in all occurred, but more likely it was four. The number of dead is expected to grow but as we go to bytes this morning it looks like a half dozen will be dead and perhaps 200 injured. (Update: 33 now reported dead as as of 8 AM Pacific)
What is curious to us is to watch the reaction, beginning with Tony Blair who is immediately blaming terrorists - as one would well expect in the wake of the Downing Street Memos which show it was not "terrorism" that drove the British to enter the Iraq War, but part of a long standing Bush plan which had been sold to the British.
Moreover, with the world markets in one of their periods of setting up for large declines, we note that the British market dropped almost 4% but at latest check was only down about 2%.
Reaction here in Los Angeles was immediate and interesting - the Mayor and the Police Chief immediately planned a "readiness" meeting - and similar moves were planned in Chicago and New York.
As we see it, this could play out on any number of ways, but here's the "short list":
We'll know in the fullness of time, but the web bot forecasts haven't picked up anything at the linguistic shift level suggesting a large scale terrorist event, so this leaves us focusing on the first two possibilities and watching the poles and Karl Rove intently.
Readers meantime are offering up thoughts and theories like this one:
Another reader sees it as I do - a little too coincidental for my alarm bells not to go off:
And another?
One more reader observation? Sure:
We're watching the "pile on" press spread terror fears which really plays into the hands of whoever was behind today's attacks.
Saudis Warn on Peak Oil They maybe didn't mean to, but a reader points something out that's very interesting, indeed:
Dali Lama 70 A counterpoint to today's news of murder and mayhem: The Dali Lama is turning 70 today. Namaste. Meanwhile, elsewhere on the religious front, we notice that there's a big upheaval in India over an attack on a disputed shrine.
Dennis is Coming And he's now posing a threat to northern Florida - as the season's fourth named tropical storm is now a hurricane.
California Budget Blues Governator Arnold is learning the hard way that balancing a budget might be easy enough on paper, but when it comes down to dealing with interest groups, unions, and demands from the public, doing a real budget is anything but fun. With general fund spending up 10% we wonder what happened to all the campaign pledges to make cuts?
China's Unocal Bid We keep watching this deal percolating because as we have stated previously, if China can not spent its hard earned US dollars freely, then the US dollar isn't worth what we told the Chinese it was... The Chinese for their part say they are willing to meet all Unocal conditions, but lawmakers are being urged not to let Unocal go because of political considerations.
Childish Phone Plan We couldn't help but notice that Disney and Sprint have teamed up to present a Disney cell phone plan which is likely to target - you guessed it - kids. We think there are plenty of risks associated with cell phones including the lack of attention to others around you so we will be curious to see how many parents bite on this new and improved way to separate parents from their money.
Wednesday Political Correctness Question A sharp-eyed reader spotted something in USA Today (think it was yesterday's editions):
Bots on Hurricanes Watch the weather systems developing in the Caribbean ( map ) quite closely, as they may portend something which came up in the 905 series of web bot runs. Specifically, the future scanning technology seems to have foretold the unusual number of named storms this summer many months back in the ALTA 405 series which referred to "flowers" visible from space in this period of time. In case you missed it, with the arrival of tropical storm Cindy in the Gulf states this morning, we are in new territory, having never had this many tropical storms this early before - ever.
More important, from a personal strategic planning standpoint, may be the impact of hurricanes on the housing bubble. In the recent ALTA 905 series, released to www.halfpasthuman.com subscribers on June 11th of this year, we find this curious note:
It's not clear to us whether the hurricane season is a proximate cause of what reads like a bursting of the housing bubble, or whether it is merely coincident to the bubble bursting on the time line, but regardless, this hurricane season could be even worse than last year's Florida disasters.
On a slightly different subject, a web bot project subscriber noticed that the food shortage predictions contained in recent forecasts seem to be shaping up:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news on this stuff, but that story isn't a third of it. What the bots actually predict is that as part of the "summer shakes" which speak of huge infrastructure damage from earth movement, food will become very dear:
(Web bot 605 part 6, May 22 of this year). We can hardly wait for the next run. You might enjoy Cliff's "Note from Nutjob Management." We still expect to be bounced out of bed before work one of these mornings because that's when the Big One should hit... As we watch quakes worldwide, like the 5.2 in Iceland this morning, we wonder how much longer... Comet Suit An astrologer is suing NASA for blasting the comet on the Fourth of July. His contention is that is ruins the natural balance of the Universe. While we are neutral on such things when courts are involved, we do seem to recall from a bit of American history that we do (as a nation) tend to shoot things first and ask questions later. Ask the buffalo.
The G-8 are meeting in Scotland and there appears to have been a compromise reached on the question of aid to Africa.
But that's not the real story. In one of my restless moments overnight, I awoke to hear George Bush on the local newscast on KFI at about 3 AM. What the President said about his Supreme Court Justice search confounded me. "I intend to appoint people who are strict Constitutionalists..." he said at one point.
Did you catch it? I didn't get it until half way through the first cup of coffee this morning at 5:30 or so. Bush referred to people - not "the person." So this brings me to a very interesting news tip: Either Bush is not fully in command of his language, OR (and this is more likely) there is another Supreme Court resignation or retirement to come! Linguistics can be so telling when you take the time to consider the verbal tells. More than O'Connor, huh?
London 2012 If you're still around in 2012 - and global warming, terrorism, and bird fly hasn't gotten you - you could plan on a little recreational time in London which will be the site of the 2012 Olympics. We expect to be watching it on television, as with the rate of increase for fuel it's possible that my that time, transcontinental airplane rides will be the province of the ultra-rich only.
ETF's Driving Program Trades A knowledgeable Wall Street insider has provided us with an interesting insight into what's driving the huge increase in program trading we documented this week ( see previous story below). He writes from 125 Broad Street that:
OK - great insight - thanks! Now all I have to worry about is what happens when all the EFT's need to raise cash at the same time when the public gets nervous and wants out...
Deflation Ahead I've marveled many times how a linguistics and programming genius (Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com ), a nutjob like me, and another genius level guy like Jas jain (PhD in digital signal processing) could all arrive at the same conclusion - namely that economic meltdown is in our relatively immediate future. So it's on that note that I'm pleased to share the latest from Jas who makes me sound like a wild-eyed optimist:
Elaine Reports: I'm always pleased when my wife shares economic insights - here's her latest..
Readers Write about the Housing Bubble:
If you're too lazy to click the link, the pucker-factor part is this: "New Hampshire's red-hot real estate market is expected to enter a painful price-correction period starting in late 2006 that economists say will result in a 5 percent to 25 percent drop in home prices." Youch! Tuesday Downer Next It may be a bit melodramatic sounding to announce on this Monday-on-Tuesday that the markets should now begin a long awaited slide downward which could culminate in a down under 7,000 (and possibly much lower) by early November. Yet such a forecast doesn't seem unreasonable to us. For one thing, the price of oil has popped back stubbornly to the $59 range. For another, this could be, as we have been reporting over the weekend, the week when the administration gets taken to task for outing a CIA agent. Although Rove, through his lawyer has denied being the source of the leak, there are already press reports calling him "Worse than bin Laden."
Stead what drives us is a pair of ominous and huge ascending triangles that have become apparent in our weekly charts - a fact pointed out by a wise Australian subscriber to our www.peoplenomics.com web site. If you have not been playing technical analyst long, an ascending triangle once broken to the downside portends a large movement down - so if the triangle points uip, be ready for down, and visa-versa.
Meantime, back at the Police State With the new National Security Service signed into law: We can expect a large number of side shows to be developed in coming months because of the long wave economic train wreck forming up. Specifically, as the economy softens, it will become more and more difficult for the Powers That Be (PTB) to hold onto the reigns of power. As a result, we read with interest this morning that the Pentagon's planners are considering beefing up domestic security. This is almost amusing to the well read student of history: Clearly the agenda has nothing to do with terrorism and is more likely to be the formation of military strength internally to attempt maintenance of order after the markets crash and lynch mobs take to the street looking for banksters and crooked politicians who are squandering the public's trust as we speak. It will also be used as the forerunner of the draft, we we consider a near certainty by mid-2006. Look for news out of Afghanistan and Iraq to be main drivers, but the not-so-well hidden agenda is building up a protection unit for the PTB to keep "order."
It's Like ...rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, though at the G-8 meetings this weekend in the British Isles. George Bush is saying that while there may be some evidence of manmade global warming contributions, it won't be enough to change his administration's policies on the matter. About 100 protesters at the G-8 have been jailed for their defiance. Some get it, others are just along for the riot. Remember, as we have pointed out previously, it was the rioting at the WTO in Seattle in 1999 that was a warning shot to the PTB that when the economy crashed, the people will be furious. Notice how "terrorism" wasn't "invented" until 2001? Notice that ever since, and we think not coincidentally, maintaining "domestic security" has become the major PTB hot button? You're welcome to disagree with this overview, but the facts support to contention, especially now that the military is beefing up for what follows.
Summer Shakes We noticed that another quake hit Sumatra overnight - this one was a 6.7 or 6.8 depending on whether you look at US or European seismography. What's interesting to us is how the public has been led by corporate media to think of any quake "over there" is some how an after shock. What Mainstream Media is afraid to speculate on is the possibility that the entire Pacific Plate could be about to go "on a walk about" Indeed, the latest web bot run out over the long weekend advises
We're please to report that www.halfpasthuman.com will likely do another run with this forward-looking linguistic shift analytics program which means our eyes will be open to what comes later in the year after the three great quakes between now and perhaps Labor Day or shortly thereafter.
Tropical Storm Cindy ...is heading into the Gulf of Mexico today and causing a few jitters in the oil industry which is already running rigs at 100% utilization because of oil demand.
Speaking of Oil China has basically told the CONgress to butt out of the Unocal takeover bid. Remember, as we have explained patiently many times now, if China can't spend its Wal-Bucks on whatever it wants to - including Unocal - it will mean the US dollar is only partially convertible, which means China would then have an incentive to crash and trash the US economy - and divert their exports here to their own citizens at home.
More Hybrids Call it a reaction to global warming, oil prices, or whatever label you choose, but just make note that Toyota is increasing its hybrid car production target to half a million units in 2006.
Ascending Triangle, part Two Oh yeah, I should have mentioned that the ascending triangle formation we mentioned in regards to the Dow and the broader Aggregate index we prepare for subscribers to our premium service, may also be inferred in the dollar's performance, which is now at a 13-month high. Same dynamic. When it goes...
Monday New Book in our Bookstore We are incredibly pleased to offer Ron Wiebe's excellent 96-page book "For Sale by Owner Coach." based on Ron's extensive experience, this $15 gem (available in our bookstore) is sure to add money to your bottom line whether you go the "For Sale by Owner" route, or whether you choose to use a real estate professional. Highly recommended.
Dollar Message? We read this quote *totally out of context on China's news agency Xinhau today. Unfortunately, they could be right:
Yes, please tell us foreign devil news service how is that $5.5 billion is almost nothing under any condition. (Sigh) (Praise the PLA and pass us a few hundreds>\
Sunday We have just posted two astounding charts on the www.peoplenomics.com site that demand further public awareness: Program Trading on the NYSE for the week June 20-24 is reported as 76.3% of all trading volume! A program trade is defined by the NYSE as "Program trading is defined as a wide range of portfolio trading strategies involving the purchase or sale of 15 or more stocks having a total market value of $1 million or more." As we see if, if you buy or sell on the NYSE, your odds are about three out of four that you will be buying or selling to a machine program!
At the same time program trading has been soaring as a percent of exchange "handle" the public is again heading for the exits:
We'll let you figure out for yourself what declining public "handle" in the markets means - our take on it is as an extremely pessimistic sign of what's to come this fall.
"$100 Oil by Winter" Not to say "we told you so" but there's a report this weekend in the British papers forecasting $100 oil by this winter, quoting no less than former Cheney energy advisor Matt Simmons. You know what this will do to prices of food, transportation, and will impact the economy in general, right?
Is Rove the Plame Traitor? We have conflicted reports on this starting with the report that Lawrence O'Donnell named Bush advisor Karl Rove as the source of the leak in the Valerie Plame/CIA agent name leak case on Friday night. On the other hand, a lawyer for Rove says it was not his client... This should boil over early next week.
Just in From Iraq Our wandering correspondent on military affairs has just checked in today (Sunday Iraq time) and offers this update:
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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| Bulldog Editions In the glory days of newspapering, the Bull Dog edition was the Sunday edition of the paper issued on Saturday morning. It had all the regular features, but might not have the absolutely most current up to the minute "headline" items. We've generalized that, such that when we issue something in advance of our regular Monday morning update, we call them "Bull dog editions." Whenever you see a BULL DOG notice on the top of this page, check back later for a more recent update. Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant. We try to publish Mon-Fri by 6:30 AM Pacific (9:30 Eastern. Sometimes we don't awaken on time, but when delays are expected we try to publish a projected update time for your convenience. |
Tuesday, July 12, 2005 12:00n PDT
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