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Quakes Increasing at Alarming Rate As we covered a couple of weeks back, at http://urbansurvival.com/nl01022005a.htm we ran an informal study of the correlation between people reporting ringing of their ears and the major earthquake(s) that hit Indonesia. Here we go again. Yesterday, I received a number of reports, such as this one reporting a ringing on Wednesday night:
Shortly thereafter we got: A 5.4 in Japan (Honshu) and a 5.5 in Ecuador a 5.6 in the Philippines, and a very anomalous 5.1 in Argentina. There is so much action with 5+ earthquakes lately, that we can only conclude that some very very odd is still going on with the planet. If you're not troubled yet, let me build you a simple chart by using USGS data and news summaries, OK? To make sure we don't capture the "number drift" in the figures, let's just count 5.0 and above quakes on the USGS news releases: In 1997 there were only 3 notable quakes. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1997/ 1998 saw 10 notable quakes. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1998/ In 1999 there were 13 notable quakes: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/1999/ In 2000 there were 6 notable earthquakes. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2000/ In 2001 the number increased to 7. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2001/ By 2002 we jumped to 12 notable quakes. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2002/ Hol on, because in 2003 it was 39 notable quakes. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2003/ 2004 calmed to just 39! http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/ 2005 Year to Date: We have had 6 notable quakes through the 19th of January. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/sig_2005.html At this rate, our annual "run rate" will top 115 for 2005!
Distortion in the Data? Sure! One of the things about our source data is that it appears that in the earlier years, says prior to 2002, the USGS was reporting quakes as notable when they were 6- 7 or larger. For the purposes of this graph, we have only included the 5.0's and larger as they were mentioned. Still, as the old saying goes, when government says "Don't worry" as they did following the recent spate of quakes, we should do what? We think "Worry!" What the hell is driving the present run rate? But moments ago here comes another "qualifier" of 5.0+...: 2005/01/22 11:27 M 5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION Z= 4km 31.64S 177.98W
This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
(Address problems to: sedas@ghtmail.cr.usgs.gov)
These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.
A magnitude 5.5 earthquake IN THE KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION has occurred at:
31.64S 177.98W Depth 4km Sat Jan 22 11:27:40 2005 UTC
Time: Universal Time (UTC) Sat Jan 22 11:27:40 2005
Time Near Epicenter Sat Jan 22 23:27:40 2005
Eastern Standard Time (EST) Sat Jan 22 06:27:40 2005
Central Standard Time (CST) Sat Jan 22 05:27:40 2005
Mountain Standard Time (MST) Sat Jan 22 04:27:40 2005
Pacific Standard Time (PST) Sat Jan 22 03:27:40 2005
Alaska Standard Time (AST) Sat Jan 22 02:27:40 2005
Hawaii Standard Time (HST) Sat Jan 22 01:27:40 2005
Location with respect to nearby cities:
90 km (55 miles) ESE of L'Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands (pop N/A)
265 km (165 miles) S of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
885 km (550 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
1245 km (780 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
For maps, additional information, and subsequent updates,
please consult: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
Flinn-Engdahl Region Number = 177
Saturday Reflections I thought it might be interesting to go over the things on my mind this weekend, as it's one of the first weekends when I have not had real work on my mind since the first of the year. In no particular order, here are things to consider/ponder/cogitate and muse over/about/around/and through:
Markets: Out of the past 19 trading days, we are now at 13 down and 6 up. Not a very confidence-inspiring report, to be sure. One of the stocks which was specifically named by the time transcending web bot project ( www.halfpasthuman.com or a simple explanation of how the technology works at http://urbansurvival.com/simplebots.htm )in the most recent private subscription runs was Fannie Mae (along with problems for the FDA which we assume will be forthcoming). This week alone, Fannie dropped from a Monday high of 69.70 to a Friday close of 64.85. When the run was posted, the stock was about 70 1/2, so we wonder about what's ahead. Similarly, the Dow is looking lame, too.
Gold: On Thursday, the Gold Trader mentioned that the commercials he watches were about 75% long, about a mirror of where positions were when gold was 25-bucks higher. Sure enough, depending on which number you watch, gold popped $4.50 yesterday.
FCC: I want to clarify my comments on Michael Powell's departure from the FCC. My disdain for his performance has nothing to do with the Commission's fines against poddy-mouthed shock jocks. Who cares? I figure all those buttons on the car radio are meant to be pushed if you hear something offense. Find new stations, that's the answer. But! That's precisely where the corporatist lackey Powell fell down. The FCC's relaxation of group ownership rules has virtually destroyed community radio in the U.S. I used to be able to travel around the country sampling a lot of different fare. From city-to-city, you'd hear all kinds of interesting comments. Whether it was Mrs. Jone's lost cat on the Community Service Bulletin Board, the local farm report, or DJ "so and so" live from XYZ Furniture's big sale at the corner of Main and 3rd street, local radio was alive anbd good for the community. Local church doings, the bake sales, a hundred and one things that make a local community a community. Now days, as the corporate giants, such as Clear Channel Communications have come to dominate ownership, we see how local radio has been knifed, kneed, and groined - left to die in the gutter while it's now possible to drive from coast to coast listening to Rush Limbaugh's thoughts. He's entitled to speak his mind, of course, just as the less hypnotized by the Emperor are - provided they don't revert to toilet bowl humor - but it has taken a lot of the joy out of driving. Now, add to the mix Powell's support for a bad technology scam, like internet over power lines (see below) technology and I think in retrospect, the FCC under George Bush - like the courts packed with conservatives - will be seen in the 20-20 view of history as having brought us even closer to the institution of corporate feudalism. The danger of which won't be apparent until after the markets tank this spring. If you want a date for the markets to hit the skids? I'd guess that around February 1st - right after the Iraq elections turn into what could be a confidence shaking political disaster. Arab press reports 451-candidates quit just yesterday - LINK and couple that with 15 Iraqi Army members being executed by insurgents today STORY and you have a recipe for political disaster for the Emp. Powell? He was great - at doing corporate biddings. Protecting the public need, interest, and concern - which the FCC is supposed to focus on? I would give him a flunking grade - and if it were up to me I'd expel him just for relaxing the corporatist group ownership rules.
Jobjacking: Still going strong. In fact, here's a story about how JetBlue and AmericaWest (which reportedly is training Filipino replacements for much of what's left of their U.S. customer service/reservations staff in Oakland) are making plans to farm out jet maintenance to El Salvador. LINK. Oh yeah, just makes me want to puke every time someone says the Free Trade Area of the Americas is a good deal. Here we go again - with spineless corporatist-bought politicos waving the country onward. Where's Ross Perot when we need him?
Technology I have never been so taken with a new productivity tool as I have been with services provided by European-based Skype ( www.skype.com ). These folks have figured out internet telephone services and I can now talk to subscribers in Europe for a mere 2.3 cents a minute. I can't say enough good things about the service, except that you should really try it. Internet telephony - free between 'net users - and without having to invest in additional hardware that's almost certain to go out of date. Just a headphone/mic and a sound card and you're in business. For subscribers, I will be available for chats on the phone now and then... If in the future I say something like "The Gold Trader Skyped me.." that's won't be trading lingo - it will be an internet phone call....got it? I've been talking to people all over the place and have only managed to spend about $3.00 this week on calls. The rate for internet to public switched lines is 2.3 cents a minute which compares very favorably with the 8.1 cents sported by even the cheapest of calling cards.
Inside Report This weekend, the first installment of "How to Live on $10,000 a year". Subscription information here. If you're not a subscriber, the e-book will be available for $15 a copy when done.
If you enjoy this site... Please click here to tell a friend about UrbanSurvival.com More readers means more subscribers and that's a good thing because it pays for the content here on the free side. Last week UrbanSurvival served up 76,495 page views which puts our annual run rate at about 4-million pages a year. I'll try to remember to give you statistics once in a while. Apparently there are more nutjobs like you and me out there than I thought...
Friday FCC: Powell Leaving Hallelujah! And watch this one closely. Word out today that Michael Powell, son of Secretary of State Colin Powell is planning to leave the FCC where he has been Chairman: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050121/fcc_powell_2.html
Now, watch where he lands. One small bet might be that he will go to work for a power or utility company. Reason? The Powell FCC has presided over the approval for Broadcast over Power Line (BPL) technology - an idea so bad it was banned in Japan and other techno savvy countries. But here in the U.S. it's been lobbied into reality and was passed in October by the FCC. Public comment was not the deciding factor - lobbying was. A disaster for ham radio operators and shortwave listeners, BPL is one of the reasons that rural telephone providers (like Sprint, in the case of our ranch in Texas) haven't finished the job of wiring rural America for DSL. They rightly figure the big power companies could steal market share because they already have a lot of the infrastructure in place. And oh yeah, BPL technology ensures that even fewer Americans will have the right to listen to other than "officially" sanctioned media sources.
So my bet: Look for Powell to land a job that benefits from BPL...
Giving Lammert His Due I posted a very pessimistic forecast from contributing fractalist G. Lammert about three weeks back. Although I have gotten a bit of disparaging mail about his work, I expect that the complainer didn't enjoy reading it and hadn't spent much time looking at fractals and the accuracy of his predictions. For example, in his call for a major decline this month, Lammert has been spot on. Since Christmas, we have completed 18-trading days. Of these, only 6-days have been up, while 12 have been down. Although today threatens to be an up day, based at least in part on Dow component GE beating the street by a penny ( http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050121/earns_ge_2.html )
So with the perspective that the market is down a tad more than 2.8% for the year to date let's review Lammert's latest comments:
If he wasn't so busy being a doctor, I expect Lammert would have done well as a hedge fund manager (and without the insurance headaches associated with medicine). Killer Read: A compliment where due to Jas Jain - a long time contributor to the Longwave Economics group at the old csf.colorado.edu site - for his piece at http://www.safehaven.com/article-2482.htm which reaches the same conclusions as we've been discussing here - and which make me look virtually Pollyannaish in comparison... Worst Cars We have to hand it to those Capitalist Tool guys over at Forbes - their compilation of 10-worst cars on the market is great: http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/worst_1.html Among the results, a Dodge Neon is projected to retain only 18% of its value in 5-years. So unless you're looking to a really sharply declining investment... By the way, four out of the Forbes 10 worst list were Ford products; of interest if you play the short side of things, as we used to do before the market stopped reacting...ah...normally..
Speaking of Transports... You might want to watch the Dow Transports versus the Dow Industrials. In classical Dow Theory, the transports lead the Dow: Link. For those who think of Dow Theory as a "has been" approach, and that the NASDAQ is the new market leader, you can click over here for a Dow versus Techs look-see.
Buffett or SNL? A follow-up note on Warren Buffett's appearance on CNBC: Although I didn't see it, apparently the Sage of Omaha was asked on CNBC this week about his silver holding - and by the reader account, he was none too happy with the question. We mention this because Buffett has been outright bearish on the dollar - correctly reasoning that at some point, the confidence game will end as when the investment world figures out just how worth-less the dollar is, there will be the Devil to pay. But wait! Will there really be a dollar crisis? Maybe not for a few months. The reason? The decline of the dollar has become a Saturday Night Live (SNL) skit. And the NY Post figures that might spell the end of the run NY Post Story. Although this week has been a good one (relatively) for the buck, I think given a choice of betting on Buffett or SNL, I'd have to go with Buffett. As shown by his annual Chairman's letters, he's a better writer than SNL on financial matters... We're looking forward to his annual letter this spring, as always.
Boston Jittery Folks of Bean Town may be just a tab more nervous now that the Feds have added some additional people to the list of suspects in the purported dirty bomb case. Link. You'll recall that this all started with a report from the Mexican side of our southern border that a couple of Middle Eastern and some Chinese had been smuggled into the U.S. intent on a dirty (read:low level nuclear) bomb plot with Boston in its sights.
Beyond Abu Ghraib Today, we read that five Danish soldiers are now being charged with prisoner abuse in Iraq: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4195021.stm No telling where this will end - except with the rumors that Donald Rumsfleld's exit is out there somewhere in the near future. Not till after the elections in Iraq in 10-days or so. To bounce him before would send the message to Iraqi insurgents that they just might be right - and according to this STORY they already have that pretty firmly in mind. Sunni insurgents are suspected in the latest attack on Shiites today - at a Mosque according to this REPORT.
Oil Leaks? Our oil-soaked Houston Bureau has been watching the reports of oil from an unknown source so8iling beaches of Southern California and files this massif:
Our fear: Earthquake precursor, but we worry about everything. The Houston Bureau also reports this week that the big oil money is starting to show up again - as a few of the more wealthy in the oil patch are showing up in local stores buying baubles again.
Bots: Watch Fannie Although the specifics are reserved for subscribers, we promised that we would continue to have our story selection "steered" by the outputs from the future forecasting technology based on linguistic shift, developed over at www.halfpasthuman.com. With this in mind, start reading stories on Fannie Mae again, especially this one: http://stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2005/1_13_05.html because it's the feds trying to get some maneuvering room. When they start talking like this, we have to wonder if maybe they see a rock dead ahead that's not yet public. We give it 60-120-days tops to become apparent.
X-Class Flares One of Elaine's sons reported that he came home last night to a stereo playing loudly - and because he lives alone, all he can attribute it to was the x-class solar flare of yesterday. Speaking of which, here's a very interesting site to click: http://www.solartyphoon.com/ Even if you're skeptical of the concept, the introduction is entertaining at http://www.solartyphoon.com/intro.htm
Ears Ringing? As you may remember, our totally subjective readership survey following the tsunami in Indonesia indicated a lot of people had ringing in their ears. So it's with some concern I received this today:
Thursday X-Class Solar Flare There goes the sun today, acting up with an X-Class solar flare:
If Jim McCanney's work holds, then we ought to be seeing some extreme weather shortly as a result of the flare. Or, in our own back of the envelope kind of scat5chings, perhap a large earthquake or two?
Berg Watch That massive ice berg in the Antarctic has stopped - for now: STORY We'll keep a close watch on this and let you know as developments warrant.
Texas-Sized Party Big doing with the Inauguration today. Security is tight as a drum. George Bush will reportedly call for the US to "expand Freedom" all over the world, says the Drudge Report: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash3.htm BBC report at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4190259.stm
Terror: Time to Worry Again? Some photo's that were literally dropped over the border from Mexico and a phone call from someone who didn't leave any way for authorities to get in contact with him - these are just some of the pieces behind a tale of some Middle Eastern and Chinese who may have been smuggled into the country to set off a "dirty" bomb in Boston: STORY Is it time to worry? Maybe...the authorities are taking this seriously. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4190159.stm
Donny Short-Timer? Reports are floating around again that SecDef Rumsfeld may be heading for the exit: STORY Given Debka's ties to the Israeli's, we expect their story may 'get legs".
Life Beyond Our Means Warren Buffett was on CNBC yesterday, and sounding pessimistic about the outlook for the Dollar: http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050119/1/3pyjn.html Buffett's biggest concern is that we're digging a balance of trade hole at a $2-billion a day clip.
Here's the Beef Is Arby's about to go public? A story in the NY Post points in that direction: http://www.nypost.com/business/21457.htm There's a truck stop near the junction of I-10 and I-20 (Pilot) where I live to pick up a couple of Arby's largest to munch on on the road. Give me a bottle of Coke, a couple of Arby's and a good audio book and I'm good for 14-hours of driving most any time.
Beyond Jolt Speaking of food and such, those "high energy drinks" that are sold many places, including in Russia, are getting some official attention there because some contain a bit of alcohol and a lot more caffeine that might be considered health. As a result, the Russians are looking at regulations: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/01/20/energydrinks.shtml Our resident punster notices this and wonders if this isn't just some of Vlad Putin's red bull...
Market of Opportunity German giant SAP, a major player in the enterprise software field, is going after People/JD Power's clients: LINK. The enterprise s/w field is a lot of fun...and one of the few places where it's hard to export jobs such as installation/configuration and training - while still billing out time at $200 an hour and up...
Notebook Plans Intel has announced plans to advance the Centrino line with a new generation of integrated graphics and such. MORE.
Speaking of which, we have to admit our disappointment with NeoMagic and Sony for apparently failing to support extended desktops on some of their Vaio series. They support dual display but that's not what the EXTENDED desktop is about. We have an older PCGF580 with the integrated NeoMagicXL256 graphics card that did extended desktop (separate information on the computer screen and monitor just dandy with Win98, but with XP, the feature has disappeared such that you can only put the same screen in two places. Elaine misses her dual desktops and if you know anyone at Neomagic or Sony, send 'em our way. We've been through everything under the sun including a wide selection of drivers and hours online with Sony support, but no solutions are in sight, except rollback Elaine's laptop to Win98. Not to rant, but losing features is not my idea of progress.
On thje other hand, maybe that's just an ugly plot to keep us buying new computers, huh?> Gartner Group and IDC are reporting nice gains in PC sales for 2004: STORY.
Easy Earner We're proud of Harley Davidson - earning up pleasantly: LINK. Only one thing about Harley - I wish they would bring back a small bike for those of us who like 250/350 cc bikes. I want to recall they had something called the "Cub" at one point. If they could find their way to make a $3,000 bike and under 400cc's, a zillion more folks would be inclined to buy a hog-lite rather than a ricer burner...
The Dow dropped yesterday mainly on earnings disappointments, and we expect more of the same today in the wake of eBay's disappointing report: STORY
Wednesday Invisibility Arrives? No kidding - messing around with new areas of physics - which came to him in a dream, an inventor in Canada has finally come up with a tool that accomplishes seeing through things. Amazing story. What's even more interesting is that the side effects of this new invention seem to zap all electronics in their path.
How does it work? The scientist isn't saying exactly, but the knowledgeable in the field advise us that it more than likely uses some mathematics that most people don't know about. Let me explain. If you remember the work of Maxwell (field equations), you may remember that most of Maxwell was "dumbed down" into a series of limited equations called the Heaviside equations. But in reducing Maxwell, a lot of math, mostly applicable to things like bending time, were thrown out as having little practical value in their day.
But, as one source told us, it's really dangerous territory. While apparently you can bend space-time in ways to be able to see through things, the drawback is that when you bend things around, you can get "left over time" that has to be dealt with.
If realized, this may mark the actual accomplishment of something military experts have been seeking for years. For example, there were reports that in World War Two a destroyer was the object of an invisibility test, supposedly involving Von Neumann and Einstein - the two leading geniuses of their day. While still officially denied, link, the Philadelphia Experiment, as it came to be known sparked a couple of movies that are entertaining and not too terribly misleading.
Central to the theme of the Philadelphia Experiment tale was using high powered magnetism one could bend light. (True enough at solar-system sized models.) But this new approach reported out of Canada appears to use phased plasma and just maybe it will be something to keep an eye on.... (or perhaps an ion ;-)
Bearden Post Speaking of borderland sciences: You might put on your must-read list, the latest from Tom Bearden, one of the more prolific writers about scalar weapons: http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/010105.htm Can earthquakes really be set off by scalar weapons? Oh sure, say some....
The Trouble Earth More quakes yesterday and again this morning. The largest was a 6.8 which caused a tsunami warning to be issued for Japan: Link But that wasn't the only one. There was a 6.2 near Hokaido earlier in the day and, oddly, a 5 point something up in the North Atlantic near Iceland. Has the "ringing of the earth" stopped? Nope, not by a long shot. We continue to keep our fingers crossed here in Shakerville (LA). Comments of a top United Nations official don't to anything to calm our worries, either: Story.
Trouble at the Flashpoint We note with concern this morning the apparent renewing of hotstilities along the Inda-Pakistan border: http://www.hindu.com/2005/01/19/stories/2005011915610100.htm The reason for concern is obvious: With both sides armed with nuclear weapons, and without the kind of response times implied by greater geographical differences, the potential for first use of nukes by accident is greater here than perhaps anywhere else in the world. You'll recall that the Soviet Union and the U.S. had nearly 20-minutes of decision time because of the relatively long delivery time of ICBM's. But here, the time in a matter of a few minutes, so the chance of an incorrect reaction is proportionately higher.
Speaking of things nuclear: Lawmakers in Russia are concerned about the potential for another Chernobyl-like accident: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/01/19/chernob.shtml
Booming in Baghdad Sadly, another 26-people have been killed in bombings in Iraq: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4186519.stm - All this as attempts to foul the upcoming elections ramp up. The Iraq war has continued to eat into George Bush's popularity - outside the U.S.: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4185205.stm
Governator Terminator The headline about says it all, as Governor Arnold refuses to stop an execution by lethal injection: Story.
Serious Inflation? We see that Mauritania has bumped up their minimum wages by 600% - a move even the most inspired socialist would have to admire: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/B1737B77-1B41-46BB-8B59-39FC97B8AF78.htm Meantime, the present U.S. Minimum Wage doesn't appear to be heading anywhere, despite some evidence that increasing the minimum wage does have economic benefits for the Unterklasse. Backgrounder. Our favorite book on this is "Nickel and Dimed - On (not) Getting By in America". Amazon Link.
Marvel Us Like Spider Man? Like X-Men? Want to have your kids reading novels about their exploits? Heck, this could bring on a new bout of literacy in the country: http://www.nypost.com/business/38381.htm If that's a little "iffy" for you, how about this: I picked up the newest Clive Cussler novel, "Black Wind" that's now out. And yes, as all the novels in the Dirk Pitt adventure series, this one begins with a nautical historical fact or two woven into a delightful set up for what follows. OK, I admit it...I enjoy Cussler's work as fast-reading better-than-TV reading...
Lost Languages While our colleague Cliff up at www.halfpasthuman.com has been watching it because of the linguistic shift focus of the future-predicting web bot project, not too many others have noticed that languages around the world are disappearing. No kidding - in fact one language is disappearing about every two weeks: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4172085.stm
Patriots Around Patriots Speaking of things literary, when E & I were traveling back from Texas, we listened to an interesting audio book novel. The plot involved an attack on the Presidential Inauguration by some fanatics with a huge over-sized mortar - but which in the end turned out to be a completely staged event to bring about peace in the Middle East - a very interesting plot. Well, we don't expect anything so complex, but the amount of security being paid on for the inauguration is extremely high including Patriot missiles: http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050118-105234-1449r.htm
Inside Report I have to admit, I'm very pleased with this week's Inside Report. It's called "Bloom, Spin, and Disaster: Point of Action" It deals with the how some news stories develop slowly (a process I've labeled "bloom") while others take on a political direction even if not justified (spin) and how occasionally, disaster strikes while people are trying to figure out what's going on. Today I have decided to write and post my next e-Book "How to live on $10,000 a year" as a three or four week series of columns that will be compiled into the book. So, if you're thinking about subscribing ($30) click here and you will get the e-Book as it is written. Or, if you're already living on $10,000 a year, stick around for a few more weeks and the e-Book will be available for $15.
Tuesday Impact of Weather Extremes We mentioned last week our thought that the North Pole - not the magnetic one, but at least the one that would be implied by temperatures seems to have shifted. Today, we have this crazy report of 54 below degrees here in the continental U.S. So the Midwest is 'gettin it' now: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050117/D87M2T6G0.html This is in addition to the extreme rains that have blessed (or cursed) California to the tune of some say $130-million worth of damage.
Meanwhile, in addition to the rivers in Russia being free-running already (they're usually frozen solid) we have reports that more than 50-thousand people are still without power from the windstorms that hit hurricane strength in northern Europe (Sweden, etc. ) last week: http://www.terradaily.com/2005/050115123236.k2f0q0sq.html
Meanwhile, if you were a subscriber to our weekly in depth Inside Report series ( $30- a year for a subscription ) you would already be watching the weather in the U.S. expecting floods of once-in-a-century proportion because of a stew of web bot indicators, U.S. NOAA forecasts, and even long-range climate work we dug up out of the Beijing Meteorological Center. We, here's the warm-up act - a forecast of flooding on the Mighty Mississippi: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6825746/
What's driving it? Extremely large solar flare and coronal mass ejections from the sun. This past weekend the northern lights were reportedly visible down to middle tier states, and we have also see some satellite communications taken out - perhaps by the flares: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10007032
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that between the weather and the shaky ground, something has changed and our formerly quiet earth is emerging from a period of relative quiescence. You may not realize this, but the Red Cross keeps tabs on things like deaths from natural disasters. Here's an interesting little factoid: The number of people killed annually by natural disasters (extreme weather, mudslides, earthquakes, and such) seems to run around 62,000. Already this year we're at twice to four times that number and the first month of year isn't even out yet!
Yet, this has caused an interesting phenomena (and it was our story last weekend for Inside Report) People are becoming "numb" to external events. It's almost as if in the wake of large-scale disasters starting with 9/11, the public has just sort of "shut down" and the "numbness" - the lack of genuine horror hasn't really set in. I suppose in some ways, this could be viewed as a good thing, and even perhaps a normal reaction: By shutting down a bit, people avoid asking tough questionis (like:"Has something changed with the world?) and instead they can continue to keep their supply chain, workaday focus that keeps the world operating.
Sadly, we're so numb-yet morbidly curious - that the tsunami has been successfully used to launch the latest internet worm attack: Story: And even that kind of "sick" doesn't get people riled up. Oh well, back to work today - keep deninal going I guess. Pass the Prozac...Just please let the market go on to new highs and don't let those falling house prices visit my town.
And PLEASE don't tell us about any more earthquakes like the one that hit Hokaido Japan this morning: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustkan.htm
Stocks to Head Lower Sounds reasonable to us. Main driver? Oil prices back above $48. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050118/wall_street_4.html More importantly, at least to our way of thinking is that we still expect the production and shipment issues in the wake of the tsunami still haven't all come out yet. The prestigious Financial Times says the poor performance for the month may not bode will for the rest of the year, either: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/10d682d8-68bb-11d9-9183-00000e2511c8.html
Bigger than a 747 Airbus Industrie has unveiled what it reckons will be the world's biggest airplane: Story The Double-decker A-380 may be a big plane, alright, but we'll amuse ourselves with simple economic questions. Like this one: How will the insurance picture really look? Big re-insurers are already a little shaky from all the earthquake losses that are piling on.
Airborne Silliness? Pets to earn frequent flyer miles when you drag Fido along on that next business trip: http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2005-01-18-midwest-pets_x.htm
Fortress Iraq If you were planning to swipe your company Citation and fly over to Baghdad for a quick power lunch, make sure you don't plan your event until after the elections. Iraq will be sealing its borders shortly and you won't want to be trying to go in or out: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050118/D87MFAN80.html You might have to settle for someplace a bit closer to home. In Iraq today, the "make it go boom" claimed another 4-lives with a bombing aimed at the Shia: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CB2500C5-120E-4BEC-B4BE-9CA29D258D4F.htm
Meantime, our Texas Bureau wants to know why we can seal off Iraq's borders, but we can't seal off the U.S. - Mexico border. (You and I know the answer is that a leaky border with Mexico is big money for the corporatists who rely on cheap labor, and we're concerned that our Houston Bureau has skipped today's numbness pill to overlook the obvious facts....)
Next Door Trouble: The Bush Administration is keeping its military options open about Iran, too: Link: This follows the reports out that there have already been U.S. military units sent into Iran to figure out precision bombing targets. Charges, which you know who says aren't true...
Monday What Kind of Holiday? This being a federal holiday, the business I'm working on acquiring here in the Burbank area will be closed today, so instead of pushing byes around a computer screen at the office, I will be pushing bytes around a computer screen at our extended stay unit. If you ever need an "official" holiday list, click over to the fed's Office of Personnel Management at http://www.opm.gov/fedhol/2005.asp and see what they offer. This is, to me anyway, the most confusing holiday of the year because its observance is so uneven. Right down to parking meters may - or may not, depending on where you live - incur charges today. Most private businesses are open today, but generally, if it's a school, bank, or the Post Office, it'll be closed.
Our Inside Report is on Holiday Schedule - it will be up in a couple of hours and our market charts, normally posted at the bottom of this page will follow by about noon Eastern Time. Now where's my coffee...
Quake Worries Our friend the Gold Trader is nervous as a damn cat today. He's been watching earthquakes both north and south of Southern California and advises that Alaska had four shakers Sunday-ish: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/ And, as quick as I can dismiss his worries, he finds more fuel for his concerns like this article out of China that talks about potential for earthquakes in Nepal (which supplies a huge amount of fresh water to countries "downhill" from them) http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-01/16/content_2466745.htm Ok, I tell him - just chill out. "No sir - the Santa Ana winds are blowing today - another sign of quake weather..."
OK, so I'll look at the Southern California map once in a while...
Taser Stock Stuns Great read this morning in the NY Post about the recent adventures of Taser International stock. What had been the high flier of 2004 dropped more than 40% - and how low can it go now? A good question and useful article: http://www.nypost.com/business/38735.htm
Mom at 67! What a story - a 67 year old Romanian woman has apparently set some kind of a world record by becoming a mother - at age 67. Story. We don't expect many post menopausal women to worry - this was an implant case, not playing with live ammo, so to speak.
Iraq Drags On With General Gary Luck in Iraq, which will no doubt be followed by his return and a pitch to Congress to be more steadfast and hand over more money for the fighting, George Bush is saying that the plan is to bring America's troops home as soon as possible: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050116/D87LBGAO0.html Edward Kennedy says the whole situation has turned into another Viet Nam: Link.
Meanwhile, 15 Iraqis have been killed as the insurgents reinforce their plans to disruption the elections which are now only a couple of weeks away - maybe: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4180189.stm And, if you were reading the Arab press, you'd be seeing articles suggesting that the U.S. has already gone into the "damage control" mode: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D2E1EC49-0576-420B-97AB-1409BB15D81C.htm
Chinese Bank Fraud Case Worker's paradise? Not hardly. Why folks can't even steal half a billion dollars plus without getting into hot water: http://212.2.162.45/news/story.asp?j=130639652&p=y3x64x358&n=130640412 Apparently the Chinese have not learned how we have had such costly shenanigans pulled off in the U.S. First you start with a tax code and then.... Why next thing you know, China will have its own version of the S&L Crisis!
Willie Selling Diesel I don't know if you caught this: Willie Nelson may be promoting use of bio-diesel by truckers: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0114-11.htm
Also useful on the energy front - a report from the National Geographic on spray-on solar panels: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, People's Economist
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Bulldog Editions when noted are the "early editions". Check back later for a more complete update. Bulletins as warranted. Normal byte times are 8:30 AM (or earlier) CDT Monday-Friday. Weekends as the spirit moves us. |
Updated: Saturday, January 22, 2005
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