Nice Rally, Now what?

We have been holding our breath for the market to hit one of our long-projected highs.  To be sure, we got there Wednesday (picture in a second) but I would have liked to have seen it faster.  Like a month ago.

This is one of those “big uglies” in economics that no one likes to talk too much about:  The speed of the market is based on the speed of communication of price information.

Back in the lead-in to the Great Depression, there was no such thing as  SMS, the web, and such.  Instead, people had to get the afternoon papers, or the next morning’s in order to figure out how their stocks were doing.

(Continues Below)

 

As a result, for the large fraction of America that didn’t live in NYC, that meant when the market closed in afternoon, they were still at work and wouldn’t be home until 5 PM.

Problem was, when there was local breaking news, the newspapers didn’t always wait for the stock market tables.  Instead, they would rush to get the breaking news out to people.

That’s one of the historical footnotes between the “morning paper” versus the “afternoon paper” battle in most markets.  The “morning paper” would have the previous day’s stock tables, but when someone got up at 6 AM, they would not have time to do much serious trading when the New York exchange was opening in a few minutes two time zones away.

This had a real impact on markets:  Speeds that news travels is mighty important stuff when comes to bubbles popping.  Our Peoplenomics.com subscribers got the heads-up yesterday outlining our targets for Bitcoins.  They will appreciate, as suggested by our chart yesterday, that BTC’s are down in the $3,620 range today.

Back to forecasting, though:  Look at the green arrow on this chart which we have been holding up for subscribers now for almost six-months:

This is our Peoplenomics daily trading spreadsheet, so you won’t find the number correlated to anything but our own proprietary work. Yesterday’s close on our index, 20,592.32, means the market has our permission to promptly decline.

While it’s true that “techs lead the way” – at least it has been for a while – we are wondering now since Bitcoin is happily replacing the ’29 stock bubble, if perhaps BTC’s lead the way will become the new mantra foro the ages.

Time will tell.

Consumer Prices Just Out

We can only assume that they would go up by some amount.  The only real question was “How much?”  So here’s today’s answer:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.

Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter accounted for nearly all of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 2.8 percent in August as the gasoline index increased 6.3 percent. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent in August with the rent index up 0.4 percent. The food index rose slightly in August, with the index for food away from home increasing and the food at home index declining.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in August. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and recreation all increased in August. The indexes for airline fares and for used cars and trucks were among those that declined in August.

The all items index rose 1.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, a larger increase than the 1.7 percent increase for the 12 months ending July. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 1.7 percent for the fourth month in a row. It has remained in the range of 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent since June 2011. The energy index rose 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, and the food index increased 1.1 percent.

Let me put on my golf announcer voice…ahem…

On your leader board, gasoline is up 10.4% for the year, heating oil up 9.4%.”

We are especially entertained by the lack of a total medical cost number because that would out a) the big lies of Obamacare and b) underscore why EVERYONE IN CONGRESS SHOULD BE UNELECTED next time they want another change to ‘eff us over…  No total medical cost in the cost of living?

And the delusional crap about “All items less food and energy?” Another idiot’s number because take away food and energy and we’rea all starving and dying in the cold and dark.  (WTF are these pipple?)

We like to follow consumer prices pretty closely.  Not that it matters too much, since wages are what they are and such.  But in a nation which runs so close to the financial brink (and most people can’t skip a paycheck without the bottom falling out from under their financial position) the real things to be looking at here are the sectors.

By comparing the increases between energy and food, for example, we can make certain inferences about the nation’s economic future.

Meanwhile?  Scrooge McUre is 50% short techs.  Which will open down this morning.

DACA Claims

We notice the democrats are either hearing things (again) or the republicans are lying (again).  Either way, the basic storyline from the Associated Press is “What happened at dinner? Trump, Dems don’t see eye to eye” on DACA/Dreamers.

Is this “negotiating style” or delusion?

I do worry about Trump’s state:  I know the last thing I want to do is get up at 3 AM and leave my honey to go post some Tweet, or other.  And Melania is almost as cute as Elaine.  Just sayin’

On the other hand, Mr. T gets a gold star for acuity on this: “Donald Trump: ‘Crooked’ Hillary Clinton Lost the Election Because She ‘Had No Game’

Yeah…tell me again why the FBI and JustUs isn’t following up?

Stupid Political Correctness

You may not be able to see it living in the big city as you (statistically) do.

But political activism is starting to piss off a lot of people out here in fly-over country.

This bullshit with sports figures not standing for Our Anthem?  I will never buy a time for those pricks.  I vote every day – with my wallet.  Now baseball has it’s hands full too as a ‘Racism Is as American as Baseball’ Banner Unfurled at Fenway Park

Trump’s view during the campaign echoes as common sense now:  “G-won…get ‘tm outta here…”  Which Boston did so I can still watch baseball.  And if it’s not on, I have a can of paint I can watch dry.

A hat tip to Charlie Parker down at WOAI (San Antonio) for mentioning one Houston football player, J.J. Watt has raised $31-million for hurricane relief.

While it’s true the telethon raised $44 million, I couldn’t stand the political crap and climate sales job that was part of it.

Oh, and Watt was passing out relief supplies.  I haven’t seen a DiCaprio picture in the mud doing hands-on help…but I don’t get out much.

Comments

Nice Rally, Now what? — 34 Comments

  1. I’m not a Houston football fan. That said, I am a HUGE fan of J.J. Watt, not because he’s an amazing football player, which he is, but because he is a real person, and has worked hard to remain so, despite his surroundings.

  2. Everybody gets Trump wrong. He knows exactly what he’s doing – playing both sides against each other. Causing them to show their true colors. That’s why his base is holding firm. They’ve read “Art of the Deal.”

    • Excuse me, but have you ever considered that the ONLY side that Trump holds fast to is HIMSELF? Everybody else is ‘cheeze wiz’ – i.e. of little consequence?

      Hold on to your ‘hat’, buddy – he ain’t done!

    • President Eisenhower’s farewell address to the nation, January 1961

      “In the counsels of Government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the Military Industrial Complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together

      • Here’s to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes… the ones who see things differently — they’re not fond of rules… You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can’t do is ignore them because they change things… they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do.
        — Steve Jobs, US computer engineer & industrialist (1955 – 2011)

  3. I think the NFL is forgetting something VERY IMPORTANT.
    Just as a guess I would suspect that much of the viewer ship of NFL games is made up of VETS and their families.
    Almost all vets respect the flag and had friends who have died for our flag.
    Almost every one who graduated high school between 1964 and 71 knows some one from their class who died for our flag.
    Then there are the Korean war vets and and the Desert war VETS and families. Sooooooo
    Until the NFL can clean up their act and stop the disrespect of my/our flag (country), it is my intention to watch. NO NFL FOOTBALL this season.
    I will watch college games (UNLESS this bull spreads to college football as well), Then I will start looking for rugby matches.
    (have you ever watched rugby?? it is an interesting game)
    NO,I do not believe contract football player have a 1st amendment right (at work)when they are on the field being paid 3 mill a year, any more than I have the right as a nurse to spread my political beliefs to my patients. (Want to bet how long that would last??) Sooooooo
    NO MORE NFL until I see a substantial change……

    • Agreed! WE, our family, are not watching any NFL game nor having anything to do with them. WE are noticing that others, like you, are doing the same. I wonder how long it will be before their big fat wallets start getting affected? It is about time that the elites in all ways gets it, that we can vote with our feet and wallet AND remote!

    • Professional sports players do not have “1st Amendment” or “free speech” Rights, nor have they any other Constitutionally-protected Rights with respect to their public lives. They work for a private corporation. The corporation determines appropriateness with regards to a players’ Rights, and their conduct, both on and off the field or court.

      When there is an allegation of domestic abuse, a player will be 86’d or shelved, not when found guilty, but when the allegation becomes public. Why? Why will the player’s team censure them on the allegation, not on the criminal verdict?

      Because they can…

      …because the player is “owned” by a private corporation.

      The corporation does what is in its best interest to do, to preserve its revenue streams, and the “public image” upon which said streams are dependent.

      Speaking of football: The Browns are perennial cellar-dwellers, yet they have the highest number of “Anthem-protesters” on their sidelines. I’ve been to Cleveland a dozen times this year, and know how “rabid” the locals are over their sports teams. I have talked sports with several members of the “Dawg Pound” (possibly the most demonstrative and enthusiastic fans in all of sports) who tell me they won’t attend a game until the anti-American BS goes away.

      I suspect two things will happen shortly:

      1. Owners will call team meetings and announce unilateral pay-cuts on plummeting revenues.

      2. Moral turpitude clauses in every players’ contract will be expanded to ban conduct or behavior which denigrates the geopolitical entity which has made it possible for these rich, spoiled, bratty court jesters, to become, rich, spoiled, and brats…

  4. If ANY pro player does not want to stand for the National Anthem….let them STAY in the locker room till kickoff….NO PUBLIC DISPLAY for their self proclaimed right to disrespect the fallen, since our FLAG IS A BATTLE FLAG……which by the way is an insult to me and mine and many others that are NOT here today to ‘stomp their ass into the ground’…..imho ….Semper Fi

  5. George, I was reading an article in the NYT about the Equifax leak. Apparently, the numbers that article referenced to call that company are not working. What if a huge amount of people freeze their credit and then when they want credit, they can’t get it because they don’t have the pin number to unfreeze it or for any reason, the process for applying for credit is severely slowed down? Could that become a precursor to an economic downturn? Isn’t our economy driven by credit?

  6. Now I know this doesn’t have anything to do at all with today’s subject.. but this morning a group of healthcare workers and myself was discussing this falls potential threats with the flu bug when I brought up that CRE had gone airborne.
    Went to look up the world threat map and this came up.

    RSOE EDIS – Emergency and Disaster Information Service
    hisz.rsoe.hu › alertmap › index2
    “In the case of a supervolcano you could have complete collapse of civilisation around the world in the very worst case..”

    Now nothing is on the map..but what is it that is suspected to bring up potential volcano threat and where..

  7. George, with all due respect, I disagree with your disparagement of black sports celebrities who don’t stand for the National Anthem. The Anthem is a symbol of the USA, and as a “symbol” it is not sacrosanct from being targeted in a protest focusing on a national issue. Why shouldn’t well-paid, black sports figures who are in the limelight and whose voices/actions will be heard by a large portion of the nation be the ones to represent those in their community who have no voice and who bear the brunt of overly aggressive and sometimes deadly police practices?

    Look George, I served in the US Army during the Vietnam War and as horrendous as it was with the unnecessary loss of life based on political and profiteering motivations, in later years I could somewhat justify my service by rationalizing that I was “symbolically” standing up for our Constitution and Bill of Rights. I think one of those rights, Freedom of Speech, applies in this case and I am hard pressed to denounce those who are employing that right (non-violently) to shine light on an important issue in our country.

    • Race baiting!
      You are making up what I said. Remedial reading class is in order. I didn’t use the word black, white, green, or purple. YOU HAVE O.D.’ed on political correctness. GTFU

      It’s like reading the left wing training manual – inject race. FMTT.

      This is about being “One Nation Under Something.”

      YOU PROJECT YOUR SHAME AND FALL INTO THE TRAP. Have fun with it. But read what I wrote.

  8. “I know the last thing I want to do is get up at 3 AM and leave my honey to go post some Tweet, or other. And Melania is almost as cute as Elaine. Just sayin’.”

    George, do you have a brother??

  9. I am 68.7. I haven’t had a medical expense in decades as long as one does not include supplements and food. So ah maybe there is no point to this point, but it seems relevant as in the Medical Industry is mostly just one big scam, along with most everything else.

    • I agree, though I have had significant expenses for eyes and teeth. So have most people.

      How convenient that these two areas of health care are essentially excluded from obamacare and medicare.

  10. if it’s true they extended the budget to December.
    Then everything changes for the next 3 months

    • I have been done with pay-to-watch professional sports since 1990. With a ticket requirement being season only now, and then parking and the cost of beer/soda approaching $8 for 8 oz, it is just such a huge scam.

      The players get to have oxygen on the sidelines, play in air conditioned, weatherized stadiums, the game is now played in between sets of commercials, which means a lot of time doing bupkiss. And then the salaries for these guys, the price of the stadiums put off on the local public – it’s just too much drain on my bank with so little reward. Buying a round of beers for your family members will pop you towards $50. Nope – there is just too little return of joy for that amount of money.

    • Why arent these NFL protesters upset about all the black on black killings that make up a huge majority of murders in our country? And why arent more people of all colors calling out the hypocrisy of their message? Ill tell you why, because when Charles Barkley and other people of color do, they get called traitors and unlce Tom’s, and if youre in the music industry and dont hold the professional victim position, you get your life, your families lives and your livelihood threatened. That’s how corrupt the message these footballers is, not to mention the liberal media that has their backs.

  11. Hillary “Had no game”.

    Alternatively, Trump won because he lied about ‘jailing’ Hillary.

    If Trump ran on ‘She went through a lot’ perhaps she’d now be jailing him.

  12. You are right on with the markets today. Looks like a pullback coming with the S&P 500 declining to @ 2420 or more. Good call.