Coping: With “Made-up” History?

My buddy Oilman2 sent me a link this week.  He was excited to find a long discussion of how the Iroquois band had a “Great Nation” centuries ago and how the Native American traditions were largely borrowed-from by the Framer’s of America’s Constitution.

It’s an interesting theory, plain enough, so I put it on my reading list.

What I found was not exactly comforting

(Continues below)


First, let’s start at the link OM2 shared:  “1100 – Great Law of Peace, Constitution of the Iroquois Federation.”

The article begins with a quote from Charles Man and his book   Wait!  Were they really quoting from Charles Mann’s book 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus?  (Who is Ure to catch a typo?)

Now we have a problem, because I’ve read Mann,  and while he does bring some information to the table, I didn’t recall claims of the Framers “borrowing” from the Iroquois.

Since OM2 is interested, perhaps you are, too.

The first question any serious science-based student might ask is “Just how real is the claim in the article?”

To answer this kind of historical question, I never begin with books or documents written after World War II, in general.  I become even more skeptical of books written after 1960.  I downright trash anything after 2000 because of monetization run amuck., Except for really well-footnoted works like Graham Hancock’s books.

There is just too much money being connected with history.  Almost any group of people from long-ago are in a struggle. somehow, somewhere, related to economics and compensation. Bend some history now, pull out some dough down the road.  Seen it work, so it will likely in the future.

For this reason, I go back to the earliest source I can easily lay my hands on, which in this case happens to be the 1892 5th Volume of  The American Anthropologist published by the Anthropological Association of Washington.

We can look at a vastly different view of the Iroquois Confederacy here.  It turns out to be largely legend – and not so much steeped in the (sociopolitical agendizing) of “modern researchers.”  Who, we might note, are often paid for research outcomes, not purity of source or thought.

(I hope that was politically correct enough?  Think climate change data tweaking as an example.  Extend to history and you’ll catch on.)

The first thing this 1892 journal article notes is that this is a legend that was passed down.  Along the way, much useful is learned, however, don’t mistake me on that:

“It is noteworthy that in this legend supreme preeminence is not given to Hiawatha (Hai yo hwat ha) and that he is placed merely on an equality with the leading spirits who took part in the formation of the confederacy It may not be digressing too much to remark here that the greater part of the miraculous and mythic doings misapplied by the vulgar and uninitiated to (Hai yo hwat ha) such as the story of the white canoe the clearing of the rivers from obstructions and monsters belongs really to the character of the Sky god   (Tha ro hya wa ko).”

With a background such as Ure researcher has (finance to the penny, resistance to the ohm, airspeed to the knot, and so forth), I am bothered by historical claims that seem to stretch things just a bit far.

I was relieved (rereading Mann) because the book is in my personal collection.  He didn’t delve deeply into the Iroquois Confederacy as being a major framework for the US Constitution. But that seems to be the more “modern” bend of history.

Rather (Mann, pages 330-332, 333) covers the legend of the founding of the Iroquois Confederacy along the same (general) lines as the American Anthropological article laid it out.

This is not to lay a “diss” on the Iroquois nor their traditions, or oral history for that matter. Did the Framers have a wampum pile they consulted?  Not so likely.

But it Reveals a Larger Problem

The problem?  We are only now coming to understand that in historical accounts, there is often very good data, but it is stacked in such a way that translation into our modern thought processes is difficult.

Take for example the totems of the Haida peoples of the Haida Gwaii Islands off British Columbia.  The former Queen Charlotte Islands.

There, when a spouse dies, there is a totem carved in honor of the person who passed.  Their life is summarized by their personal symbols (like an eagle & bear) and then the tribal symbol, and under that are accomplishments, honors ancestors…there’s an art to reading a “mourning pole.”

And, you can occasionally see them at the outside corner of a Haida home…and no, it’s not just a touristy photo-op deal.

People there characterize a person’s life highlights and then commemorate them in cedar logs, later colorfully painted.

So this is what we’re up against in the Iroquois Confederacy founding legend.  There’s one part where the 1892 journal reports on the pre-confederacy efforts to find the regional despot (likely a cross between a warlord and shaman) in order to assert the confederacy’s rule.

After making a stop at one remote cabin, and receiving instruction how to find the despot’s home…

“When night had come the two spies with assurances to their host that they would report to him the success or failure of their errand left the cabin As they reached the limits of the forest they again transformed themselves into crows and flew over the forests intently scanning the horizon in all directions to discover if possible the smoke of Tha do da ho After a long search they found a smoke rising like a huge pillar to the very sky…”

Tha do da ho, in case you haven’t figured it, is the villain in the legend.

Here’s where we get to the anthropological interpretation issue to address:  How are we to sort out this phrase and what does it mean?

As they reached the limits of the forest they again transformed themselves into crows and flew over the forests intently scanning the horizon in all directions to discover if possible the smoke…

Does this mean they lit up some kush and took to a remote-viewing session to find their way?

Or, does it mean literally that they had some air conveyance laying around?

Or, was it possible that this was legendary prose, a series of metaphors for traveling at night, over a wide range, as quickly as possible?

If you’ve got your copy of Field Manual O9-37 [Small Unit Operations in Afghanistan] handy, you’ll notice that the soldier on the cover is sitting on a very, very high (commanding) viewpoint.

If Ure’s truly was reading this the 1892 report with the same perception I’ve been developing to close out the research for my new book (should be out next week, or the week after but before Thanksgiving for sure), the way I would read this would be as any warrior would read it:

They took to high ground and, climbing trees now and then for the widest, quickly advancing so they could overlook forests and lowlands, looking for telltale smoke from Tha do da ho…

The interpretation problem is very similar to the ones that confront The Chronicle Project that Chris Tyreman chairs.  When you’re dealing with antique languages, you need to “get into antique mindsets.”  Modern mental constructs weren’t around.  Life was simpler and most direct.

In modern parlance you’d never tell your Scout troop to “transform into crows at the forest edge ” to find someone.

But, absent the (cost/benefit) of Reductionism, telling them go do as crows go up/to sky/and see could convey high ground, up trees, go to promontories (not in Utah, lol).

To instruct the scouts to straight-arrow direct to a location might translate as “going like a bear.” Or, if the big rocks, hard on the peds and paws are to be avoided, “go like a wolf...” which might be semi-direct but the fastest path afoot.

Your small unit operations training could kick in here, too: Going like a wolf would mean an unchallenged advance, while going like a deer might mean stay off the lunch menu on Ure way.  Each animal is a menu item for another, and so with scouts of old…

There’s a whole branch of religious scholarship that I touch on in my new book that works around this.  We have a tendency to impute meaning from ancient texts based on our modern modes of thinking.  But that doesn’t make them correct. In fact, it’s a huge source of error.

For now, it’s an interesting take on things.  But our hearing the claims doesn’t make it so.  We prefer contemporaneous accounts pre-1900’s.  And with no “Sethite” imputing of what was really meant.

And above all, follow the money and track the sale of guilt.  My money is on a treasure trove of both at the end of this trail, but we respectfully acknowledge the crows and totems along the path.

Still, when comes to history, we hold to the old.  Cite sources pre-1900 directly, or don’t bother me with them. I’ve started a reading pile for OM2 next time he’s up…

Beat paper with a stick, sometime,

How 12% of Your Lifestyle was Stolen

It’s all in the numbers this morning as we behold one of the most interesting spectacles of human history.  We have been screwed out of 12 percent of our real lifestyle and it takes some clever work in statistics to see it and understand how it’s been pulled-off.
Before we get you straightened out on that, headlines and charts. 

We may be going down the road of Rome, but no reason not to have a few Didrachm along the way.

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War and Water-Cut, Where to Stack Cash?

Headlines today suggest the rest of this week will be exceptionally busy for the one-percent.  The world is “trying to break” out from under them.

The headlines deal with two topics and one if an “oldie but goodie” that keeps everything in context.  Perhaps, it is best to start there.

We go back to Matthew Simmons book from several years ago (2005 to be precise): Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.  In it, he lays out the problem the Saudis are now beginning to face.  As my friend Oilman2 is fond of saying “Depletion never sleeps.”

(Continues below)


Consider now the tactical problems of the Saudis:  They have a domestic extremism issue (the Wahhabi sect).  They have water-cut.  They have a national expectation of constantly rising incomes because of the ‘good times of oil.’

Yet, upon closer inspection, things are not going well.  The price of oil has dropped dramatically (though not unexpectedly) as we cross the bottom of the economic long wave.  When the economy – and inflation – was blowing things along, the Oil Cartel had the “luxury” of embargoes and gas lines.”  Now?  There’s a glut and North America has come into her own with a combination of new technologies.  These cover both new well development as well as the rework side.

Toss in the future of Venezuela – which you’ll notice has slid to the “not worth mentioning” pile – and you’ll see that any major oil producer has their share of headaches.

This comes against a larger backdrop:  We’ve been calling it the “Manufacturer’s Resource Wars” for years.  It’s what happens when industrialized and “first nations” need the continued supply of raw materials at rock-bottom prices in order to maintain financial viability.

Even so, the stock market’s recent meteoric rise, which we judge will be over soon enough, has been driving more by accounting than sound operational accounting.  Stock buy-backs, rosy promises of unlimited growth (and drone delivery) and the whole lot of it.

But, on closer inspection, there’s fraud in the book-keeping dept.  What’s happened is that as bonds have come down in price (because rates may actually go up over time) there are investors with only two real choices,  Take a flying on the digital tulips (Bitcoin is around $7,225 today) or buy up stocks that “talk a good story.”

At its core, the Saudi problems are global problems.  And Venezuela, as the Financial Times noted this morning “Venezuela’s debt struggle poses more questions for investors.”  Especially when other reports openly profile “The Drug Kingpin Running Venezuela’s Bond Negotiations.”

What could possibly go wrong?

Obviously, the Saudi’s need an out.  And what is predictable when countries get into intractable situations?  Why, they start wars, of course!

And that’s why it’s so interesting to follow the WW I rhyme with the pre-war Balkans prior to the Archduke Ferdinand killing that set WW I in place.

The Saudi’s are on the verge of ‘war’ with Hezbollah. Saudi Prince Salman’s Chess Game with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Now, we need to look at a map because the Saudi’s already have what could be looked at as a hostage to use as a negotiating tool: Lebanon PM Under House Arrest in Saudi Arabia: Pro-Hezbollah Paper. So the map, please?

The circle upper left is the first Saudi problem if they want to beat the war drum:  Jordan.  With Israel on fairly good terms with them, Jordan has been a buffer zone between interests in the region.  However, the future of Jordan is looking “iffy” why?  Climate change: Jordan water crisis ‘to get worse’.

The right circle is where the oil is over toward Iran.  Where Satellite imagery reveals decline in ISIS oil production.

The Saudi crown prince is bright enough to know that Hezbollah needs external aid to exist.  And that’s why we read how the Saudi Crown Prince: Iran supply of rockets is military aggression .

To be sure, we don’t expect the outbreak of war this week.  But in the longer-term, depletion never sleeps. So until we get to the “whip-saw spike”  – expected when the results of reduced exploration and new production catches up – occurs, the pressures are on in Saudi Arabia and in Venezuela to meet social expectations on the one hand, while battling the demons of water-cut and depletion, on the other.

For now, the headline that matters is (as always) related to money: “Saudi Crackdown Widens as More Bank Accounts Said Frozen.”

This is not likely to have a direct or immediate impact on the U.S. markets, but as Saudi deals with other parts of the world stand to blow-up because of the internal house-cleaning now underway, if could drive future demands for liquidity and that’s where we look up the tracks a few miles to see that train a-comin’.

Where to Stack Cash?

While the uber-rich of the world can nod knowingly about the future of the Middle East – and place backing bets – they have a more immediate problem with a project by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.

They have just released their Paradise Papers and it outs all kinds of major corporations – like Apple.

Among their key investigative allegations about Apple?

  • As governments shut down tax loopholes, Apple found new ways to keep tax rates ultra-low.
  • Those rates allowed it to accumulate a $252 billion mountain of cash offshore.
  • Ireland tied itself in knots hoping to retain Apple, its biggest source of corporate taxes.

The group’s revelations also focus on some of the Trump inner circle claiming, for example:

“One offshore web leads to Trump’s commerce secretary, private equity tycoon Wilbur Ross, who has a stake in a shipping company that has received more than $68 million in revenue since 2014 from a Russian energy company co-owned by the son-in-law of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In all, the offshore ties of more than a dozen Trump advisers, Cabinet members and major donors appear in the leaked data.”

As time permits, you might want to click over to the ICIJ website and read what they’re doing.  And maybe toss a couple of bucks in the Donate hopper.  Because with corporate “media control” keeping the mainstream in lock-down mode, groups like this are up against some tall odds.

The main reason for mentioning this project is simple enough:  Just like water-cut may (loosely) drive war in the Middle East, the leaking of names and parties in the tax-avoidance world may be compelling-enough to push some Big Money into new hidey-holes.

To accomplish that might mean raising some liquidity in coming weeks.  And where will markets go when “liquidity is raised?”

Trump Calls for Talks

In Korea, Donald Trump is calling for talks with North Korea.  But, as is predictable, the NorK’s, who may be watching a bit much media, have responded with a “nuclear sword of justice” rant.

So this doesn’t look to be going anywhere.  They continue to be a, uh, marvel.

Meantime, the useless fallout from Trump’s Japan stop continues as The Network‘s minions at the State Department will surely remain worked-up that Trump didn’t bow in Japan.

And come on, is “Hope Hicks wears a tuxedo to Japan state dinner” really, oh, you know….news?  Gotta say, she was looking “hotel-oscar-tango” to the fashion intelligencia.

That Gigantic News Hole

Ah, here we go:  Remember how I was telling you that with Trump on a trip, the media would have trouble filling up all those useless news minutes?

So here comes Grabien with “Media Invent Two Fake Trump Scandals in First Day of Asia Trump.”  NSS.

Let’s All Be “Experts”

Sometimes, we need a break from all the deep-thinking about here.  So we toss the darts into the Nostracodeus runs and see “whatsup wid dat…”

Today, we look in on “experts.”

AI needs time to evolve … then we can regulate it, expert says.  You mean like there wasn’t an FAA before Orville and Wilbur?  Who knew?

UM linguistics expert to speak on the world’s disappearing languages.  Question is, in what language will he speak?  Here’s a new concept:  Digital melting pot!

Can II be an expert now, too?


Another ugly “trute” for ya: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Reveals Nearly Half of the Nation’s Largest 50 Markets are Overvalued.

Market’s paying attention?  Nope:  Dow futures still up 12 ahead of the open.

Even with the top three Fed chiefs jumping ship.

Are we the only ones thinking “What do rats do?”

Or, are we just reading a bit too clearly between the lines?

More for subscribers tomorrow.  Cheap seats here in the bleachers open again Thursday so dew drop in, bubba….

Coping: Android Pets

Elaine finally decoded our “Great Topic” note for today’s report.

As explained Monday, the note didn’t make much sense Monday, but after several hours thinking back on it, things came into focus for Elaine.

We’re planning to come out with a new kind of “Android Pet.”

(Continues below)


The idea is simple:  Our forthcoming Android Pet will have as many bad and negative aspects of pet ownership as we can.  Everything wrong with pets should be in our app.

We’ll also get fabulously wealthy for reasons that will become apparent.

First, though, the App itself.  AndyPet – as in Android Pet.

Like pets, we are planning to make “AndyPet” available over a wide range of “pet equivalents.”

The free version of the pet (mongrel, we call it) will have some limitations:  For example, you can only give a mongrel version of AndyPet a single syllable nickname.

The higher-end version of AndyPet will permit you to pick any breed of your choice.  If, later on, you decide to change the breed, there will be an AndyPet plugin that will edit your pet’s DNA.

AndyPets will have a “poo option.”  This a small heater (we copied the Glade room freshener concept).  When AndyPet poo-pellets are heated, they give off a barf-inducing smell.  They have to be removed and bagged.  AndyPet poo-smells are free – they come in the package with your Andypet food code.

All new AndyPets will require licensing – just like non-virtualized pets.  That means an annual AndyPet license.

It also means shots

If you cheap-out and don’t buy the shots ($75) your virtual pet will come down with assorted behavior problems.  If you persist, and go more than 90-days without shots, the AndyPet will begin to die and your Android will make several weeks of digusting pet death-throes noises.

There will be virtual poop, virtual walks, and even episodes of “get up at 3 AM and play with me!”

You will also want to buy the AndyPet obedience module.  It’s only $100 but you have to work with the AndyPet half an hour a day or the training will wear off.  You can hire this out to certified AndyPet trainers.

Yes, fire hydrant up, your AndyPetis engineered to give you the most complete, virtualized pet-ownership experience available And it’s hypoallergenic. 

No one said it would be FREE, did they?  Real pets sure as hell aren’t!

Since Donald Trump managed a decent run of monetization with Trump University, we have plans to launch AndyPet University.

Instead of curb your pet, it will be code your pet.

Once we have our Dog Icon Degree program though the accrediting  agencies, we get the keys to the student financial aid  vault.  From there?  We’re set for life.  Warm up the jet, we’re going to Paris.

We were thinking maybe Bernie Sander’s wife could run AndyPet University for us…

It was about here (I was half-way through a half-glass of Italian vitamins Sunday) that I ran to jot all this down.  As confessed in Monday’s column, my note-taking isn’t perfect.  So kudos to Elaine for reconstructing our thinking.

I vaguely remember her asking…

Why would anyone pay for an app like this?  It’s an OBVIOUS money scam! People aren’t that dumb!”


“Well, um, yeah they are, darling.   Even dumber.  Look at Facebook, Tinder, Twitter, and all the other social media crap…  Aren’t those scams, too?  Look at Bitcoins and the Easter bunny!

Besides, we’re being honest:  This is a real pet ownership simulation opportunity.  See?  Here’s the dictionary definition of a pet: “a domestic or tamed animal kept for companionship or pleasure.”

She still wasn’t sold…

“Domestic or tamed animal?  How does a tablet  qualify?”


“I sit how many hours a day with a computer on my lap?  I’m trying to TAME the digital world.  What about Second Life?  This is as real as we make it…We just have to believe and we can achieve…or something like that…”

To close the sale, I’ve programmed one of our computers to wake up and start making incessant barking noises at 2 AM.  We’ll just see how she reacts to virtual pets not being real enough

Meantime, if you want to develop additional AndyPet apps and cut us in for 10% be our guest.  I think AndyFetch would be a good one.  AndySniff could be amusing at parties…

We do want 100% of the virtual flea and tick revenue (from AndyFleas), 40% of the trips to the groomers (DirtyAndy) fees.

We’ll come up with sickening virtual ribbons and a line of AndySweaters, too…)  Plus, we will split the “pet police” who will be monitoring all AndyPet owners to ensure no unlicensed AndyPets are ever sold.  We can even sell API access to Homeland Security or NSA too, just like the home automation peeps…

Can it get better?  Oh, sure…

Because AndyPet has one more “undocumented” feature I’ve saved till last.

Most Android machines have a Bluetooth connection.  And we’ve written a particularly aggressive Bluetooth virus we call AndySperm.  If you get within range of any other AndyPet user, this app will ensure AndySperm will delivers a litter of offspring.

Since you don’t want eight-times the revenue impact of the single AndyPet, we have a virtual neutering app you’ll have to buy.  $200 and your app is down overnight.  For his safety, you understand.

In the works?  AndyTase – a virtual taser that plugs into yourAndroid and will randomly “bite” people.  This is an option on all breeds except the AndyBull and AndyRotty where it’s mandatory.

We shelved the AndyMaul which would simulate more than a bite…

Depending on how local laws run, you may be required to carry AndyBite insurance if you take your Android out of a private, fenced-in yard.

AndyBite insurance can be waived, however, if you’ve taken $25 worth of ResponsibleAndy training.

We’re in negotiations with AndyLizard insurance and learning how to speak with a phony pseudo-English accent.

Just like real pets, certain screen sizes are required.  You can run the AndyPet chow on a 10.1 tablet.  The AndyDane only runs on 65″ and up monitors.

And you’ll be qualified to keep your droid in a convenient AndyBag.  Perfect to catch warm AndyPoo.

For Christmas, we’re selling 20-foot pieces of yard for $29.  By calling it an AndyLeash, we figure thousands will be sold.

Are you in, or what?

Write when that infernal barking stops,  rarrf! rarrf!  rarrf!  rarrf!  rarrf!

Three Novels from the Future

It may sound odd for what is nominally an economics website to mention Monday morning news in terms of three novels.  However, these are odd times, and anything goes.

Novel #1 involves the present Trump trip.

As yourself the following question:  What you really know:  If Robert Mueller were to convince a grand jury that president Trump had in some way acted improperly, and he was pressing for an indictment, could this explain the president taking a long overseas trip – out of the country?

(Continues below)


Both the New York Times and Washington Post eagerly ran stories this summer about this possibility.  But is it?

Our first novel begins in July with the NY TimesCan the President Be Indicted? A Long-Hidden Legal Memo Says Yes.”  The Washington Post parroted the notion with an op-ed from a legal scholar a few days later.

Where novel #1 takes unusual twists and turns is when it’s pointed out that a long-hidden memo is NOT how LAWS are made in the United States.  Those are made by Congress and, absent that, the Supreme Court must decide.

As the novel progresses, the sitting president begins his travels by going to Asia.  But, as he is about to return home, he decides to extend his travels. Perhaps to drop in on Saudi Arabia where a possible plot to overthrow, or at least widespread corruption, is being rooted out right now.

In the background, though, the real driver is the press for an indictment and the matter of how to serve the sitting president.

As the novel winds to a conclusion about the end of the year, the sitting president remains off-shore and pardons everyone involved.  Congress is left to sort out how to get rid of the special prosecutor.

With the president’s trip extending several times, speculation builds before Thanksgiving:  Can a president preemptively pardon himself?

In the “directors cut” of the movie based on this novel, the president globe-hops all the way into the New Year before the vice president steps up and claims the office on the theory of abdication.

Trump doubles down, saying he has always wanted to spend a traditional Eastern European with his wife’s family in Slovenia.

Supported by the K-Street mafia (the lobbying firms that really run America, in concert with The Network (called the PowersThatBe by those who haven’t read Quigley [see Tragedy and Hope 101: the highlights]). Trump becomes the first president removed from office by the corporate-deep state alliance.

In the aftermath, America is told “There’s nothing to see here…move along…

Being born and bred dopes, we do.

Novel #2 This novel is based on the notion that there is a major housecleaning being undertaken by The Network at the behest of the branch of the mob that no one talks about.  The one that’s behind the story portrayed in the December movie release upcoming of the Jean Paul Getty flick starring Kevin Spacey.  Ring a bell?

Will enough “public outcry” be generated to keep the Spacey-Getty flick off-screen?  Especially after Kevin Spacey accused of groping Richard Dreyfuss’ son Harry?  Movie trailer is here:

The premise of this novel is that the low-profile branch of the Italian underworld (the Ndràngheta if you didn’t grab the in-depth on Peoplenomics this weekend) has directed the house-cleaning of Hollywood.  Too many loose ends.

Like the Harvey Weinstein-backed Waco series scheduled for January on the Paramount channel.  The novel watches for cancellations and delays.

In this obviously fictional story, the Las Vegas shooting was simply a warning to The Network from their “muscle-providing friends” that certain people “have to go.”

The highly speculative outcome suggests that a second mass shooting (the one in Texas this weekend) means the mob isn’t yet happy with the depth of thee cleaning process undertaken by The Network.

And in the wake of this “headline making public messaging” from Texas, two or three additional big Hollywood names get their careers crushed before Christmas.

In the end, The Network and the “quiet muscle branch” resolve their differences

And once again, the born and bred dopes simply move along…nothing to see here.

Novel #3:  The Climate Fraud Series

In this novel, a serious newspaper science reporter begins by revealing the latest date on the Sun’s output.  It has continued to decline as the solar weather cycle winds down.

In the novel, the newspaper guy continues to reluctantly be swept along with the stampede to make “climate changereal in order to avoid being “tarred & feathered” as a climate denier.  His paper won’t keep him employed if he continuously questions the paradigm-shift, even though based on fraud.

Until, that is, in the second half of the novel, the reporter receives the following note, neatly typed and delivered in a plain manila envelope to newsroom:

“I am a long time subscriber to your paper and have many interest similar to yours.  I sail, I fly.   Until recently I felt that what is on television about global warming was mostly true, it seemed to make sense that dumping pollution into the atmosphere could cause it. I have a friend (also a pilot) who is very liberal and was Trump bashing about the Paris climate agreement, It bothered me to agree with him since I support the President on almost everything else he is trying to do. I decided to do what you would do and look at the data myself and see what I could find. A good place to look is the NOAA website, when you get there you find lots of talk about global warming and it’s terrible effects and very little data, but if you keep looking it is there. What you find is that the average world temperature has increased 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the past one hundred years. My first job out of college was as a test engineer for a farm machinery Co, so I know some  about data and what you can do with it. That 2 degrees looked to me to be very close to what you can expect  for measurement error so I tried to look further into how they determine average world temperature, good luck there, all I could determine was they had changed their methods twice in the last ten years. I was discouraged for a few days but as is normal for me when I have a problem to solve I woke up a few days later with an idea. I reasoned that if the globe is warming then the United States has to be warming and if the United States is warming then the state record highs should be clustered in recent years with many in 2017 the warmest year on record according to NOAA. Also I thought state record high temperatures would be solid data not affected by what method is used to find an average.  I have to admit I was surprised, it appears there is lots of smoke and no fire to global warming, worse we have government agencies lying to us. I urge you to look at this data yourself, but in a nutshell, 1936 is the warmest year on record with 13 of the 50 state records, 1954 and 1994 had four, 1911 1930 and 1934 had three, 1975 and 1983 had 2, the rest are scattered at one per year. Since the year 2000 there have been 2 state record highs, in 2006 South Dakota tied a record set in 1936 and in 2012 South Carolina tied a record set previously but I don’t know when. The warmest decade is not now but has to be the 1930s with 23 of the fifty state record high temperatures. I hope you find this useful, good luck and keep up the good work.”

Just then, the editor of the newspaper bursts into the science reporter’s office and screams at the top of his lungs “Did you see this?  There was a record-early snow in the Pacific Northwest this weekend.”  The Editor throws a copy of the Seattle Times on the science editor’s desk.

Early November chill brings more snow to parts of Seattle area.”

I want a lead for the early editions how this can happen with “climate change!”  The door slams behind him.

With the finishing touches on my non-fiction book that sets the scientific ground for my next novel, it’s hard not to pick up the headlines and jump to erroneous conclusions, but here they are:

The world is an honest place.  People in Washington follow the laws.  There’s no underworld.  And that snow up in the Pacific Northwest this weekend was just a freak event.

There, all better now?

Nominal Economics

Light news flow this week.  Bitcoins are still up in the $7,600 range, but bouncing around a good bit.

Dow futures have been above and below flat-line.

But a few stories catch our eye as possible market drivers to come:

Wind power has its issues: Aging US Wind Energy Fleet Driving Surge in Operating and Maintenance Spending, IHS Markit Says.

Oil hits two-and-a-half year peak on Saudi purge, world shares retreat.

The Running Bubble Has Popped. (You Couldn’t Hear It in New York.)

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Anthony Weiner to Begin His 21-Month Prison Sentence For Sexting a Minor.  What about the OTHER data on the computer?  Spritz of Teflon?

Coping: With Incomprehensible Notes

I know what’s wrong with America now:  We don’t make useful notes.

A short story to illustrate the point.

As promised, I baked bread Saturday.  While it was on the wire rack cooling, Elaine and I stepped into the “180-room.”  That’s our room, made out of mostly recycled windows, where we can see at least 180-degrees of view.  Maybe I had a cold adult beverage, too.  It was hot in the kitchen baking the bread, after all.  Break-time for “cheffy.”

(Continues below)


While we were reviewing one thing and another,  Elaine came up with a damn-fine idea for an article.

“Hold that thought, darling.  I’ll just grab a piece of paper and write it down as a topic in the Coping section…”

Fast-forward 24-hours.  Now, I look at the note:

I have no idea on earth what it means.  I do remember thinking “Great topic.  I will just tear a sheet of paper out of Ure printer and write it down…”  But, as the scrawls reveal, the pen didn’t work.

The damn pens NEVER work when you need them for something important.

Off to Elaine’s desk and back with a fresh pen.  Which is why the scribble.  I even remember looking at the note “Oh, I can remember the THAT easy…

Except Sunday morning it was gone.  Just some Sanskrit.

Elaine had no idea, either.  Shot of OJ, a morning stack of vitamins, coffee, coconut oil and fish oil…and 20-minutes later?  Still nothing.

Except for the obligatory spousal “This is Ure hare-brain deal, not mine…” look.

So, Our first point of the week?

Especially if you have had an adult beverage, remember to make notes that will make sense the next day.  I flunked this one.  Badly.  Wasn’t even buzzed.  Just not fully present.

Looking back, I’m sure that’s what separates us from the Warren Buffetts of the world.  They probably take good notes.  Even after 8-hours of work and 4-hours of baking on my first glass of Italian vitamins, this should have been cake.

Life ReviewI should have saved, oh, maybe 50 cocktail napkins in my life.  I could be rich, have my Nobel Prize by now, and been on the front cover of People at least twice….who knows?  But I take notes that only make sense until the pen’s put down.

Then?  POOF!

Woefully deficient note-taking is one of my few downfalls.

America would not need to be “made great again” if cocktail napkins only accepted whole words and complete thoughts.  Or, if I’d thought to use the “Alexa take a note” command.

It’s all so horribly obvious on Mondays.

Spare Time This Morning?

We might as well be on a different planet.  Time moving from “daylight” to “unleaded” (God’s time) leaves us with extra time to waste before wasting it at work.

Some ideas how?  Sure, since you asked…

  1. Take a new way to work.
  2. Stop and eat a nice breakfast out at a place you’ve never been before.
  3. Play with the dog or cat.
  4. Try training goldfish.
  5. Sit on the throne and read something.  If your legs go to sleep, find shorter articles.
  6. Work out.  (*This will circle back to #4 with enough treadmill time.)
  7. Post a learned comment to a website.
  8. Clean the coffee pot before work, not after.
  9. Run a load of laundry.
  10. Learn to iron.
  11. Ask Alexa to read to you.  Ask Siri  — if you’re an Apple- or two -a-day type.
  12. Make breakfast in bed for your partner.  (Elaine won’t let me since I try to bring the camp stove and toaster to bed…)
  13. Vacuum.  Monday sucks, right?
  14. Make plans to have lunch with a friend or spousal unit.
  15. Trim your nose and ear hairs.
  16. Sweep the front walk.
  17. Cut your nails and buff them.
  18. Polish your shoes.  This is fun with running shoes, in particular.
  19. Take the garbage out.
  20. Check your tire pressures on the way to work.  You know the formula for tire pressure and hydroplaning, right?

21.  Write a Winter Driving Tip

I wasn’t just a-kidding about the tire pressure and hydroplaning. All pilots know this stuff, but since an hour won’t get you soloed, let’s get in one useful lesson that will increase your odds of what?  (“UrbanSurvival!!!”)

As the FAA explains in one of its publications:

” Data obtained during hydroplaning tests have shown the minimum dynamic hydroplaning speed (VP) of a tire to be 8.6 times the square root of the tire pressure in pounds per square inch (PSI). For an airplane with a main tire pressure of 24 pounds, the calculated hydroplaning speed would be approximately 42 knots. “

Since I will send a “winter safety bulletin” to my kids about this, let’s see what the difference is between 28 Lbs. and 34 Lbs. of tire pressure:

At 28 Lbs. we get 5.29 X 8.6 = 45.5 knots..

Since you could have learned the conversion from knots to MPH (knots X 1.151= MPH close enough) with all the spare time this morning, it means 52.37 MPH is a fair guess at hydroplaning speed with 28 Lbs. of pressure.

However, 34 Lbs. means 5.831 X 8.6 or 50.14 knots which pencils to 57.72 MPH.

Now, this may not seem like a lot of difference, but let’s say you are driving down the road at 57 MPH and the bozo in front nails his/her/it/thems/whatevers’s brakes.

Since you are slightly under hydroplaning speed, you shouldn’t smack into his back bumper.  But brace, because if the person behind you doesn’t have their tires adjusted to winter/wet driving, you might get whiplash.

Bad news?

Oh, no!  Not really.  Cops will generally cite the person hitting the back-end for following too close.

Three ways to avoid this?

  1. Become a drug dealer so you don’t get stuck in traffic.  There is an upside to irregular hours.
  2. Install a small GE or Rolls jet engine on the roof and keep it spooled  up.  Then car-pool with a flight-engineer and have them ready to hit thrust reversers.  This will insure a rear-ender and a big insurance settlement if you survive the fire.
  3. Get old quick and retire.  Then you won’t have to travel, except under ideal conditions.  Exception:  Blizzard Bingo tournaments.  But, some things can’t be helped.

Or, become a writer…

How Much Bread?

Hardly any in writing anymore.  But, Saturday bread-making was perfect.  Nice, crunchy crust, but not quite light enough for me.

Elaine loved it though – and honestly it was about the texture of the “salt rising bread” I remember from the first half of the last century.

Next time, I will let it rise longer.  But you know how impatience works?  Well, I don’t have time to tell you…

Write when you get rich,

How to Fix Hollywood

This morning we go through a review of what has gone wrong in Hollywood.  Long list.  And, as our contribution to “public service” we also offer some free consulting advice on how to fix what ails the silver screen crowd.

Except, in mid-report a mystery pops up and it leads to the underworld…

After charts and news bits, or course.  I mean, what’s the movies without having to sit through some “previews of coming attractions,’ right/

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