Coping: With Winter Coming, Shop Projects…

I came in from the shop, where I’ve been going through the woodpile.  As I explained last week, this is not something to be taken lightly.

There are now four kinds of wood in the Ure household.

One is scheduled for construction projects.  This wood is generally, or more feet in length, free of nails, and worth using on any project.  Outside is the treated wood version of this type.  Think of it as an annex.

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Long time ago, Echo Zoom sent me one of their “rocket stoves” and then a funny thing happened, though I can’t remember how: A second “rocket” type showed up.  When he comes by Friday to labor on the gutter project, OM2‘s boy will no doubt pick up one each rocket stove for their ranch.

But that gets me to pile #2.  This is wood that is solid, like no plywood because I always worry plywood smoke will make my pechewzelwhacker fall off, or something.  And the wood can’t have been primed, painted, stained, or preserved. When all those conditions are met, it gets cut up and tossed into a five gallon bucket which will wait for the next emergency.

A cloudy day, but not too cold emergency, and one without power.  That’s because on a cloudy day, the SunOven won’t work. If it’s too cold, then the big ventless propane unit goes into the house and a catalytic propane on a 20-pounder goes into the gym/guest room.  That’s only if it’s cold enough to freeze pipes, which usually amounts to 24-hours a year.

The third wood pile is useless.  Too short to much damn use for anything.  I built a box out of 3/4 ply (7X17X9 tall) and while I’m sure there is somewhere I could hang it (like a catch all for small air tools, nozzles, and crap like such-all) it would be neater just to clear off the shelves in the air tools, nail gun, and glue cabinet.  You see how this is going, right?

Then there’s the “Elaine Pile.”  This is some of the oddest stuff you ever saw.  Thin slices (2-1/2″) luan ply, dowels, and bamboo enough to make you think you’re in Asia.  But woe to the man who questions what’s in that pile.

Cleaning the shop up has uncovered three more decent-sized projects.

One is the “rediscovered” of my “box wood stove.”  It’s one of those foot & a half square, 30-inch long jobs made out of cast iron and a single layer of refractory brick in the bottom.  I remember buying it, thinking it would be a grand long-term inflation indicator.  New it was $99-bucks with tax.

Just for the halibut, I went snooping at what they’re going for nowadays:  US Stove 1269E Small EPA Certified Cast Iron Logwood Stove, 54,000 BTUs is pushing $400 bucks.

I’ve been thinking of selling it, since it has appreciate more than  my lone gold coin, here lately.

Another gem I can across was my double-barrel stove kit.  This is a series of metal casting that will let you turn a 55-gallon drum into a stove. It’s the Vogelzang U.s. Stove Bk100e Bsk1000 Stove Barrel Stove Kit which these days will set you back $87-bucks, more if you want the double-barrel version.

I can’t imagine being without a collection of empty, useable 55-gallon drums on a ranch, but for those who don’t have a home assortment (a few 42 barrel types are nice, too) you can buy one from Amazon for (gulp!): $110!!! Vogelzang DR55 Drum, 55-Gallon. I don’t know as there’s anything sacred, blessed or holy about this one, or not.

A little more research discovered a $55 barrel kit: US Stove BSK1000 Cast Iron Barrel Stove Kit. When you fire one of these up the first couple of times, plan on not getting usable heat.  You’ll have the doors and windows open  – the roof too, if you can – because the paint burning off them is miserable.

The not bright, but venturous can skip the hole-drilling with either a 9 MM but hollow points will make a mess.  .22’s work if you then file them out.

Speaking of esoterica in the shop, got an air file?  $28-bucks for a Central Pneumatic Air File With Flat Cut, Half Round, Round and Triangular Files.  Just the ticket if you are…um…lazy like Ure friend is.

To go with it, since we’re talking lazy-man metal work: $24 bucks will get you a High Speed Air Metal Saw.  And then, to clean up all the goobers, you’ll have to have an air grinder kit. Another $24, please: Compact Air Die Grinder Kit (with 1/8” collet, 1/4” collet, three aluminum oxide mounted grinding stones and two wrenches).

Assuming you have some .22 longs to punch in holes to a barrel, that might be the quickest way to get an inside stove. Yes, you have permission to use STOVE BOLTS, lol.

But you see, this is where having a shop gets to be fun.

Honey, darling, dearest, I need a plasma torch to make my stove so I can burn all the boxes all these tools are coming in….”

Since we already have a wiring guy (me) and since we have 220V in the shop, I’ve been looking at a plasma cutter.  The prices on these have come way, way down.

For example, check out the PRIMEWELD 50A Air Inverter Plasma Cutter Automatic Dual Voltage 110/220VAC 1/2″ Clean Cut Portable which runs about $289.  The only drawback to this is it’s a contact tip type plasma torch.  The alternative is a hundred bucks more: PRIMEWELD 50A CUT50DP NonTouch Pilot Arc Air Inverter Plasma Cutter Dual Voltage 110/220VAC 1/2″ Clean Cut.

If you have any strong opinions on touch vs. touchless plasma torches and have REAL hands-on experience, please let me know which way to lean on this.  I love welding and with the temps this week (and for the next three) still up in the too hot to glove-up for long, it’s getting on time to tune up the metal-cutting band saw, toss a new wheel on the metal chop saw, and start eyeing our scrap heap with lust.

Winter doesn’t have to be a girly-girl, run to the Sunbelt deal.  There is always the option to put a stove out in the shop, turn on the compressor, put a coffee cup on the stove, top it off with the Thermos, and air tool yourself into believing there’s a point to all this.

My “dream project” – once we get the next couple of books done – is to get an old junker car and make a “rat rod.” Always admired the work of George Barris.

Yeah, I know:  Why a rat rod, for heaven’s sake, after owning a string of Porsches.  Like the time-worn joke:  You know the difference between a Porsche and a porcupine?  (Has something to do with the one has the pricks on the outside).

People who make their own cars, ground up, are a lot like airplane builders.  Makes it more exciting to drive (or fly) what you yourself have built.

And that, my friend, is why God made shops, hangars,stoves, coffee, winters, scrap lumber, cardboard, compressors, plasma, and hardfacing rod.  Everyone oughta plan to use several more bottles of shielding gas before going to the Big Sleep.

After we get done hacking space-time, that is.

Do one spouse-project for each of your own and it’s amazing how fast tool acquisition schemes can pay off.

And this week’s Tool Slut Find of the Week:

https://www.handeeclamp.com/

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

How Much of a “Relief Bounce?”

The headlines are an odd assortment this morning:  One of the big ones features the Dow showing a 119 point rally in the works, per the futures, as we hit the pixels.

But beneath it all, we see some signs of weakness not to be under-estimated.  While it’s too early to talk about damage from Irma, the Harvey toll on the public side of the ledger is coming up on $200 billion.  I penciled out that the private insurance and un-insured losses will likely come close to that, so between the two storms perhaps $750-billion to $1-trillion which are is said and done.

At the macro-economic level, that’s like having 5-percent of the US GDP splatter.

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Short term, average news readers are still on “news flow overload” yet we see a few stories that are more thoughtfully economic in tone.

To be sure, some of it looks like silly/happy-talk.  Take this story, for example: Global shares return to record high as Irma loses strength.

The British Footsie, for example, trading 7,410 this morning is a good distance from the 52-week high at 7,599.  Germany’s DAX was 12,437’ish this morning vis a 52-week  12,951. The French CAC-40 was circling 5,170 today – a long shot from their 52-week high of 5,442.

Asia?  Well, down-range Japan was nibbling 19,546 against a 52-week high of 20,318.  This leaves the only major market we track that’s even close:  The Hang Seng (*Hong Kong) which was rolling 27,955 overnight against 28,128 for a 12-month high.

This is not to say that the Reuters story is wrong, after all they cite the ACWI-MSCI – an index measured by Morgan Stanley.

My point is simply that in our Aggregate Index view of things, we have a good bit of trading to the upside before we will get all “gushy” about global records.  In the meantime, if you like a 47 country index that includes places like Pakistan, Philippines, Columbia and several others we find less than inviting for any number of accountancy reason, and you want the Kool-Aid of “Happy days are here, again!”?

Then have at it.

As in sports, we’ll keep our eyes on the majors.  There’s a reason the farm clubs are called “the minors.”  Batting .350 in the minors is a little different than batting .350 in game 5 of the Series, right?

You tell us the number you want to hype, and let us pick the markets, we can deliver reports foretelling everything from the End of the World to the Second Coming.  Not free, however.

U.S. Department of Funny Money

Our Canadian  news analyst, who we hope we’ve not offended by failing to admit Winnipeg is the Center of the Universe, offered this on the comment side that is worthy of your attention, particularly if you have “miner league” syndrome:

Sir,

Chinese open internet thinkers are banding together in an effort to free us from global metadata oligarchs. Exodus has begun; the serfs are chafing at the chains.

https://tronlab.com/en.html

Speaking of which, Apple has reversed course and so far allowed the Bank of China to place a blockchain payment app on iTunes. Perhaps if the mandarin version is well received, an English version will follow for the Babel of indentured masses?

Always a polite people, we don’t usually ask our Canadian correspondents to use the formal “Sir” greeting.  “Your Ultimate Royal Highness and Prophetic Galactic Principal” will do fine.

Please note that our previous preferred method of address, Financial Deity Incarnate Composer was halted by counsel on the grounds FDIC sounded like it might infringe on another mark.

Blockhead’s Delight?

Not hardly:  Bitcoins were down to $4,181 when we looked this morning and that looks perilously close to the back-side of the hyper blow-off could be at hand.

We will see how this works out, but gold and silver were soft metals, rather than hard currencies in the early going as well.

Another reason we’re wondering how long the Irma’s gone buzz will last…

Trump-Bashing

What with the hurricanes receding onto back pages, or at least they will shortly, the U.S. Media Empires will need to resurrect their fave bogeyman.

Roll with the WaPo‘s “Bannon: Trump firing of Comey was the ‘biggest mistake in modern political history’.

America’s Nazi Clones?

If we are, as we hold, in a replay of the end of the Roaring Twenties in America and the early 1930’s of Germany, all rolled into a big knish, then here’s a story that will wrinkle your brown shirt a bit: Antifa throws smoke and projectiles at police at Portland rallies; 7 arrested.

Sounds more and more like a criminal tribe of wannabe-be revolutionaries, does it not? Got a better description of ’em?

Meantime, Portland PD is showing it’s led by idiots as Portland police reportedly scrap gang database over fear of labels.  WTF…whose side these ol’ boys on?

Football and Guns Don’t Mix

COWBOYS PARTY CHAOS 8 dead, including gunman, after shooting in Texas.  Time to register fans?

16-Years After

US commemorates 9/11; thousands expected at ground zero.

Why I am Not a Doctor

Docs are supposed to keep up on stuff, continuing ed units (CEU’s) and all that.  But sometimes you see stories that would leave you scratching your head, regardless of how many years of practice.

Take this pair of stories:

Respiratory tract infections in young children linked to asthma and worse lung function.

Versus Children with asthma are being prescribed unnecessary antibiotics.

So, don’t give them antibiotics and risk asthma and worse?  Huh?

Zeus, get me CDC on the phone…maybe they could explain. Zeus! No, the number is not 1-800-CYTOKINES…

Three Suckers a Minute?

No, P.T. Barnum didn’t really say “There’s a sucker born every minute…”

Besides, when the phrase was working its way around, the USPop was one-third of what it is now.

Updated for population, therefore, we project there are now three suckers born a minute.  And you know how we can prove this?  Open up the NYT this morning and behold:

With a $1,000 Price Tag, Apple’s iPhone Crosses a Threshold.”

If P.T. Barnum didn’t say it, could Tim Cook?

Seattle UFO?

Son G2 called me from Kirkland, Wa this morning to report a UFO out over the Redmond, Wa area.  Since he’s got almost 500 skydive jumps and has been around airplanes a lot, it isn’t like he doesn’t have some idea of what he’s looking at.

The screen snag off Skype didn’t come out good, but it was low to the horizon and sat there for 45 minutes spinning off small swirly things.  Police are looking into it…

Meantime, there are reports cropping up in the National UFO Reporting Center run by Peter Davenport of several very long duration sightings this month.

Winslow, Maine on the 2nd.  Then in Lewiston, Illinois for 52 minutes, same night.  A one-hour sighting in Billings, Montana on the 7th,  Stoney Creek, Tennessee for “hours” same night,

Lyons, Nebraska for 4.5 hours on the 8th.  And now today from my son in Kirkland, Washington visible for 30+ minutes.

Could be a “morning star” but doesn’t seem likely. One police officer said after checking his star app, “Likely Venus…” to which another cop said “Does it move like that?  Did you see it move? Planets don’t move left and right…”

We will go with Cop #1’s take.  Venus rose today at 3:59 AM and will hit transit at 11 AM.  Still, Seattle has been a hot spot for UFO sightings since 1947

Coping: With the Book-writer Within

193 pages.  181 footnotes. 4-weeks of every waking minute outside of Urban and Peoplenomics.  And now the BIG problems begin.

Dimensions Next Door will not be ready for proofreading for a couple of more weeks because the book laid out some directions to potential intellectual property (patents) and I need to get them done and filed before the book is turned loose.

The book lays waste to the Philadelphia Experiment – that chapter is called Philadelphia: Three Ship Monte. The chapter on missing ships and aircraft comes up with a far different conclusion than the populists who have written of “12 Vile Vortexes” around the world.  Nope.  There’s a better answer.

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For now, it’s out to the shop which will get a good cleaning and then I will run the long-delayed experiments based on the book.

True, I have been buying test equipment for a couple of years now – and curiously, without knowing specifically why.

Yet, this morning it all became clear.  This whole project has been like building a house.  The test gear is like going out and buying lumber which has been “seasoning.”

Writing DND has been the equivalent of drawing up the plans once I was starting to get the “lumber in hand.”  The test-bed is the foundation, the experiments and results should be the majority of the “house.”

If the experiments fail?  This is the highest probability, after all.  Well, it will turn out to be perhaps the most foot-noted piece of fact-based fiction ever.  Or, I can leave out the experiments and leave it in the non-fiction category.  The experiments will determine that…

Main thing to share, though, is what is universally applicable in the way of writing lessons.  This you may find interesting.

How so?  Well, I found in school (back in the MBA days) that if you wanted to score high marks in a class, all you had to do was to “parrot-back” the points of the textbook, changing the context slightly, give it just enough spin…and make it long.

In government contracts, law, non-disclosures, grad school, and most times at work:  Long documents are given more deference than short ones.

So, learning to write – lots and fast – is one of the keys to success. This was doubly true when I was a college director and our periodic accreditation visits came up:  Our “self-study” report was a monster – well over 100-pages, single-spaced and with twice that in appendices that included prodigious computer runs.

I made sure that those reports could be argued from any position, as well.  A favorite lawyerly trick I learned of from a friend in law school long ago.  “Write the brief, but always include as much about the other side’s position as your own,” I was told.  That way, you could easily say “We addressed that on page so-and-so.”

Writing non-fiction is like being a detective.  My first chapter was “First, It Helps to Die.”  It’s where the personal encounters with near-death experience lives.  And from literally, life and death, you can go off on any direction you want.

That’s how interesting non-fiction should be, I think: It should be like reading a detective story, as much as anything.

Writing fiction is much, much easier.  Because it’s like watching television.

In my book DreamOver: A David Shannon Adventure, the writing process was different,

You see, in fiction all you need to do is get a clear vision of a scene from you movie playing in your head (which you are capturing on paper and turning into a book) and turn it into words from the pictures and dialog that is going through your mind.

It goes, without saying, that the most important part of writing fiction is to envision strong scenes and then utilize specific words (much as an artist uses a paintbrush) to fill-in the details and take a boring “picture” transforming it into a compelling (can’t put it down) adventure.

As I’ve explained before, DND is the non-fiction “fact-collection” for my next novel.  The problem with the novel is that most are simply rehashed work-overs of long-spent plots.

To be good, authors need to travel, or in the case of DND, actually run the experiments on being space-time in order to write with authority.

But this, in turn, comes from something else:  We’re back to having and holding the scenes from your movie (distilling to novel) clearly enough that the words will literally jump from brain to page.

DND has taken almost six weeks to complete – longer than I envisioned, if you’ll pardon the pun.  But the research is where the time went; not specifically into the writing itself.

There’s the choice for you.

Everyone has “at least one good book in them” if they have lived a useful life.  It’s one of the most enjoyable things you can do.  Even if it doesn’t pay off up front (huge book sales, notoriety, movie deal and all those traps I’ve managed to avoid so far, lol) it is still deeply satisfying at a spiritual level.

Next time you get ‘the urge to write” – don’t waste it making up eyeball captures for Zuke Markerburg or some other social media gazzilionaire.

Write it for your kids, a few friends, and screw this dribbling out your personal movie on social media.  You will never make any money there and the satisfaction is hollow, at best.

Be what you already are:

A Writer.

Post-it’s

One of our frequent commenters posted half a dozen links to a baseless doom-porn YT piece about how we’re all being poisoned in some paranoid plot.

Eventually, tired perhaps of his posts NOT showing up, he sent in “Testing?” and yeah, that, too, was deleted.

There are simply too many people who have gone into doom-porn and setting up video channels and while entertaining if your time isn’t too valuable, we have a simple test around here.  Are there verifiable facts presented from credible sources?

If not, a couple of doomers out of Canada who offer no supporting evidence of outlandish claims, are not going to be approved as a comment here.  For one, I haven’t written a column lately on how “burning up nuclear spacecraft are going to poison us all,” lately.

If, or when, I do write such a column, then I will reconsider.  But, in the meantime, we are not part of the “me-too” doom-porn posse.

Doom will get here soon enough, brought by too many people and making up too much money.  We choose not to be part of its monetization without concrete facts that we have personally verified.

And our own work, verifying facts, takes precedence over the re-posts of others.

There…now, go home (if you’re in Florida or Houston) and get to work.

Tomorrow, we’ll get into the Insurance Rebellion.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

A $100 Prepping Plan

The recent outbreak of weather (and seismic) events, forest fires, and so on, has us thinking about the best use of money.

If you have prepped as long as we have, the cases of ammo, buckets of food, barrels of water, and all the rest is really overkill.

But if you’re one of those people who didn’t get with the program in the “first round of prepping” the subject is likely about to emerge from the “mass adoption” gulch and very much into the mainstream.

Problem is:  How do you scale into it?

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Damn Weather Whipsaw: Market Slide Ahead

Gosh, yesterday I was telling you how there was a case in current market action for there to be some recovery in the markets and, should it all hold how we could go on to new highs. That would be based on “good news” which was being priced into the market.

Then something happened in our model:  As the storm track for Irma came around to a possible dead hit on Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, our old stomping grounds in Boca, then on up to coast to West Palm and points north, our model (“Carnac”) decided to turn tail and run.  If “good news” is dropping from Cat 5 to Cat 4, that’s not much to trade on.

More specifically?  We took a small (dime-sized) loss (plus commission) and timed out the trade at 3:53 PM, going to a cash position in our tiny trading account.

(Continues below)

 

Let me show you what changed between the Thursday session and this morning:  First, here’s how things looked at the close yesterday in the model: (See the word “Short?”)

Granted, that wasn’t a strong short; that’s why we opted for cash.  On the other hand, the projected move for today would be a reasonable “downer” so there would be no point remaining long on the chance that a lower open would cost more than taking the short-term “whip-saw.” With that advice from the model, I was done with the long position.

Sure enough:  The  market has (in a manic manner) decided to get worried about several more Houston-like messes appearing over the weekend.  Here’s our outlook from the trading model this morning (REMEMBER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!)

The problem that should be apparent?  Look at the projection for Monday’s action.  Yee gads.

Should that kind of selling follow-through happen, it would mean some of the worst fears about Irma are likely to be priced into the market Monday and this, in turn, suggests that it’s going to be bad…very bad.

Unfortunately, there may be a bad-on-top-of-bad coming, too.

When markets drop out of a long-term rally, which they could do next week, it is possible it would change a larger-picture Elliott wave count.  If it does, this particular modeled future offers that a 5% OR LARGER market decline might then arrive sooner than later.

5%?  Like more than a thousand Dow points???

Yeah…That’s how big the market drop was in the aftermath of Katrina/Rita after it walloped NOLA.  But since this will be an even bigger hit (as a percentage of GDP) it will mean (presumably) a bigger market decline.

We’ll lay out some of the specific possibilities on the www.peoplenomics.com site tomorrow.

What matters this morning are three things:

  1. Watch the storm track here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

2. Actually read the meteorology  discussion:

“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

3.  Good luck to us all and Godspeed.

Mexico Quake: Now the BAD News

You may have seen that there was a major (8.1 revised) quake down in southern Mexico?

Mexico earthquake of magnitude 8.2 strikes off Pacific coast.

While most of the re-tweeters and re-posters are OMG’ing this all over social, they miss the real story which is?

The Mexico earthquake has released tension on one part of a fault system.  So it becomes a concern that tension is now building in other parts of the fault system.  The areas circles are the ones we would be watching:  SoCal, SF, Seattle to the Queen Charlottes (now the Haida Gwaii’s because political correctness is everywhere) and maybe up to Alaska and out into the Aleutians.

If it happens, it’s not our fault.

Uh…did someone mention that Sept. 23 date as the opening of the Tribulation might actually have missed the start?

Oh, since I am writing on my next book Dimensions Next Door, did you see the report of “earthquake lights” after the quake?

Credit Reporting Breach

You need to check your credit history: Equifax breach exposes 143M people to identity theft.

How Stupid Are Democrats?

As we suggested Thursday, Donald Trump, Jr. went up to capitol hill for a BBQ Thursday…and he was on grill.

Five HOURS worth.

The reason we question the IQ of democrats is stories like this one: Blumenthal cites ‘gaps’ in Trump Jr. testimony.

Let me see, here: It was what, a 15-minute meeting?  And after five more hours Blumenthal and the other Trump-bashers STILL haven’t got a chargeable crime?

Meantime, the Robert Mueller fishing expedition is trying to get IRS involved.  So go efforts of what Steve Bannon will say on CBS in depth this weekend is how desperately the republican establishment wants to get rid of Trump.  And that’s means Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.

Guess republicans are stupid, too.  Couple of great guesses, huh?

Watch our comments section for first-hand reports during the Irma impacts… and have a safe weekend…

Coping: Problems of the Open Web

I have offered for years that one of the sure-fire markers of the arriving Second Great Depression will be the increasing regulation of the Internet.

When it comes, and I spelled out the case for it in one of my books (Broken Web) that it will have to, one of the first area’s I’d like to see cleaned up in political email.

Near as I could figure, between the crooks raising money to “fight Trump” and promising to see him removed from office (the job of Congress) and the solicitations asking me to spend to “save the climate” and blaming climate change for hurricanes…well, enough is enough.

(Continues below)

 

A few facts about the internet which should be apparent.

  1.  Lawyers are asleep at the switch.  We could clean up the internet tomorrow and all you need to do it is a couple of heads-up law firm willing to go for the throat of irresponsible social media.

Let me explain (which I will, like it, or not):  When someone writes about me on Facebook and (let’s suppose in an unflattering way) and in a manner that has nothing to do with the “public” George, are not they (Facebook) guilty of holding me up to public defamation?

Ditto, when a non-public figure is held up to ridicule on Twitter, Pinterest, or elsewhere.

The Social(ists) will argue that they can’t be responsible for the behavior of their customers.  So let’s distill this thought down to its basics:

If I own a billboard and someone pays me to put something slanderous and defamatory about YOU on it, should I – the billboard owner – be responsible to take down the offending sign?  Of course.  But when I willingly let the sign stay up, doesn’t that make me complicit?

You see, the socials are already doing exactly this:  they put up content – anyone’s offensive, dumb-ass content, because it makes them money.

I think a heads-up law firm would be able to prove that the “billboard owners” have an agenda that involves manipulating the public opinion and they seem to allow left wing fascists (whatever those might be, but say you have an antifa or a southern poverty bent and follow me here) a free pass while punishing those with a different view.

Seems just plain stupid to me that class actions haven’t shut down social media yet, but that would be nice.

Like a library card or a phone book, I don’t mind internet licensure when it comes because a ‘licensed content provider” should ONLY have a license is they are actually in the business of CREATING content.

The internet has become like the crowded theater, though.  The Colbert deal the other day (“Trump didn’t meet with hurricane victims” I think it was) is an example.  A certain core audience of social media let’s BS like this come charging in one ear and retold on the other ear’s next phone call, after being tweetered and reposted to all their friends.

Every wonder how America got stupid?

2.  I think the Internet would also be well served by the cops and LEO’s getting much more involved.  Even local cities should have at least one cop devoted to internet crime.  There is probably enough stolen merchandise on eBay to choke a pawn shop.  Not to mention sale of things like night vision gear that honest people don’t realize can be eBay’ed to any country that doesn’t like us.

Did I mention the fraud that goes on over social media?  Oh, fine, that too.

3. I would have expected the medical profession to have announced a finding like they did with cell phones a few years back, too.

You remember the one:  Cell phones will cook your skin over time?  It’s all there is radiation exposure tables, but who believes it.

Just like video gaming is known to have consequences, too much social time is a scam that’s bad for you, too.

Well, I could go on and on.  But the emails from people willing to charge me to change climate, Trump, and sell me a back brace and a reverse mortgage…it’s all too much.

Bring on the lawyers.  They might not get much straight, but they will muck things up and at $300 per hour, a law school education with a bent toward going after the deep pockets is sure to be one of those few jobs robotics won’t take.

Until the robo-judges come along.

Till then?  Social(ist) media is generating headlines like this one: “Twitter Bans Activist Mommy for Tweeting Her Dislike of Teen Vogue’s Anal Sex Guide.”

Maybe this is social’s way of pretending not to be a PITA?

Which, if you read Peoplenomics, is yet-another perfect fit with our most recent Operation 30 update on how the Elites are working the depop game..

Thank you!

Got plenty of book proofing offers.  Now I just have to finish the damn thing.

Ran into a new angle just yesterday which surprised the hell out of me.  Speaking of which, I hope Bruce Gernon and Rob MacGregor (The Fog: A Never Before Published Theory of the Bermuda Triangle Phenomenon )  are OK – they’re in Florida.

My book is now 172 footnotes and 163 pages…

OK, off to check markets and storm tracks…ya’ll come back money and for people in Houston and Florida, our prayers are with you.

Write when you get rich (or dry out)

George@ure.net

Carnac of Markets

The Wikipedia entry sees all, explains all, about this morning’s column:

Carnac the Magnificent was a recurring comedic role played by Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson. One of Carson’s most well-known characters, Carnac was a “mystic from the East” who could psychically “divine” unknown answers to unseen questions.”

Thing is, based on our latest spin on our Trading Models, we will “walk the plank” this morning and posit some near-term futuring. Because while many people make absurd claims about the future, it’s becoming clear from our experience that the real future to expect is the one predicted by the PWM – People With Money.

(Continues below)

 

Let me see if I can summarize it simply.

Over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house, not only do we occasionally use observed data to write some down-right scary scenarios – like yesterday’s piece on how the PTB are planning to implement a return to 1930’s population (and technology) levels which they need to because of overpopulation and “under-jobulation” thanks to robos and software – but we also build sketchy computer models that attempt to “get ahead of the world.”

And, if you ask subscribers, we do this pretty well sometimes.

I know…that should be enough.  But it’s not.

It has been percolating since age 21 when I first hit the street as a “beat reporter” in major market radio, that there’s is an odd relationship between how markets move and then how the news flow fills-in to accommodate.

With our latest close-in modeling tweaks, we can now make an “ejumacated” guess both at the financial future as well as the news flow.

So which should we do first?

The market, of course.

The short version goes something like this:  We have been tinkering with how the human mind works and how, each day when the market closes, the stock market “makes a prediction” about how tomorrow will look.

It operates on two important psychological premises:  The first being that recall (memory) has a semi-exponential declining access rate.  This means while you might remember what you had for lunch yesterday, as you go back and attempt to write the list of past lunches, most people can’t go back even a week.  It gets worse, as you get older, by the way.  That will give our Millennials something to look forward to, lol.

The second psychological premise is that continuation bias exists.  In other words, if the market is at (or very close) to equilibrium at Wednesday close, it will be looking forward to today’s Thursday opening.

Take these two concepts, marry them, shake well, add ice, bake for an hour at 350 F, make a gravy to go with it and it looks like this as of the close on Wednesday (don’t worry your little head about the numbers in column #2 –  it’s a projected moving average):

There is a ton that I won’t go into here – it will remain proprietary and for Peoplenomics.com readers.  But you can see that today, the market SHOULD go up.  Tomorrow, if the market goes NOWHERE today, we might expect a decline.  But the outcome tomorrow should be such that we see the market rally a bit by the close today, and then hold, or rally, tomorrow.

Near Friday’s close, the market will project Monday, and so on.

So much for Part 1, except to note that the Dow futures were down 0.21% when we looked, but the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.19%.  This will all get worked out in the first hour, or so of trading (“the Amateur Hours”) when professional fund managers bend ’em over and have their way with the retail small-time traders.  About 10 AM Central is when I look at things.

OK, simple version:  Market closed yesterday saying today would likely be an up day.  Today, we are expecting more/further “good news” in the media.

Except for Donald Trump Jr. who is going to be BBQ’ed on the Hill today followed predictably by NE liberal media swill writing mostly made-up “Russia” crap.  We expect that good news around Irma will just light up the lefty-idiot-children of the radical left with more Trump-basing BS.

Go read about Colbert’s false Trump claim. This kinda crap is everywhere – lies repeated and retweeted by idiots.

NuMerica’s being led mindlessly around by antifa agitprop. But you can see it until you pass financial puberty – which we reckon is about age 40 these days.  It’s when you stop dinging the parents for freebies and pay Ure own way 100%.

Hurricane Irma Fits

While our interest in meteorology is limited to that necessary to fly airplanes back and forth across the country – which we’ve done a bit of – using the market outlook, we should see a major improvement in the Irma outlook as the day goes on.

You could already sense the shift in this part of today’s early forecast discussion.

“Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours.
Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500
UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and
that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in
surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.
Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central
convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is
lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next
aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC.”

What does it mean?  Well, simply that when the markets were projecting a move today to the upside (using our projected moving averages method) they may also have been saying “You know, this thing may not be worse than Harvey, after all.”

Today, as the weather data firms up, and we slog through six hours of trading, Ures truly will “run the numbers” again and see what is being predicted for tomorrow and we will then adjust our account positions accordingly.

Simple, huh?

Well, except for the stepped frequency microwave radiometer part.  The SFMR works how?

“The SFMR has a downward pointing antenna which passively reads the microwave radiation coming from the ocean surface. By making assumptions about the vertical structure of the atmosphere together with sea surface temperature measurements by a downward-looking airborne infrared radiometer, reasonable estimates of the ocean surface brightness temperature can be made at six frequencies between 4.6 and 7.2 GHz. Wind speeds are then calculated assuming linear increase in wind speed with these brightness temperatures. Since some of the frequencies are more attenuated by rainfall than others, an estimate of the rainfall rate below the airplane can also be made.” Says this NOAA page here.

While stopping short of the predicted technology in my new book (*Dimensions Next Door) where the logical next step would be radio interferometry based on simultaneous, rather than discrete frequency agility (the chapter of multiplexing will help, lol), this is bang-on technology and it’s almost laughable how stories like this have been literally falling into my lap since I began work on the book.

Whew!

Since getting up Wednesday at 2:45 AM to work on Peoplenomics, I have a) further tuned our forward-looking market tools, found there is technological toward radio interferometry that may like behind stories like the Philadelphia Experiment (the ones of the USS Timmerman, not the Eldridge), and we may be on our way to solving (at least from the theoretical standpoint) reported incidents of time-travel and electronic fog.

Cool, huh?

The major disappointment is the engineering outfit that makes the frequency-agile airborne radiometry isn’t publicly traded.  Damn shame, that, because they’re nibbling on the edges of what could be the Next Big Thing.  More on that in the book.

Where were we?

In Other News (

More of that “good news” I was mentioning: Oil firms as U.S. Gulf refineries restart, dollar softens.

With Congress acting like a bunch of damned idiots (and we apologize to damned idiots for the slur on them) here’s a hopeful: Govs. Kasich and Hickenlooper: A Bipartisan Approach to Stabilizing Our Nation’s Health Insurance System.

More construction spending from Bezos et al as “Amazon plans $5 billion second headquarters in North America.”

Don’t laugh at East Texas.  Land is cheap and there’s no traffic during “rush” hour.  You could make the world’s first Tech City…and remember, Texas has its own grid independent of the rest…

Also in the battle for “What’s in Ure wallet?” Chinese logistics firm Best, backed by Alibaba, launches $930 million U.S. IPO.

High resolution expensing? GoPro expects to post adjusted profit in third-quarter.

New Productivity Data

Hot off the Labor Department handout:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.5 percent during the second quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.0 percent and hours worked increased 2.5 percent. (All  quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 2.8-percent increase in output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked. (See tables A1 and 2.)

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting a 1.8-percent increase in hourly
compensation and a 1.5-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs
decreased 0.2 percent over the last four quarters.

Janet Spotting Season Opens

In the NYT today: Morning Agenda: Question Mark for Fed’s Top Spot

Retraining the Navy

Likely to be a very big deal with Trump, et al, since we all know it was Obama who gutted the US .mils.  And that’s why when the story popped that “US Navy says most 7th Fleet warships lacked proper certification” we put that on the Obamanation.

Seems to us that he was too busy “did-enforcing” things like immigration law and grandstanding for the left, rather than carrying out the Constitutionally mandated things.  Like keep the Navy squared-away and ready to kick ass.

But like Hillary on Russian uranium, he gets a pass…’cept from us.

Lemme see…is there anyone we haven’t pissed off yet this week? Hmmm…

We’ll take a whack at that when we come back for “Moron the ‘morrow.”

Coping: 29-Acres of Organizing

With my consigliere due to show up at Uretopia in less than a month, we have gone into the “deep cleaning” mode around the ranch.  If my writing has been slightly unhinged lately, it is likely due to the big domestic changes underway.

The good thing about living on a 40-foot sailboat for 10+ year is you could never accumulate too much stuff.  When something new came aboard, something old went overboard or to the dumpster in the marina parking lot.  No such thing out here in the woods.  The weekly trash collection is fine for household waste, and all that damn used Styrofoam, and such.

The other stuff, though…OMG!

(Continues below)

 

Ever since we bought this joint, back in 2003, it was been one rehab and refurb project after another.  At some point, as we used to say, it’s “time to shoot the engineers.”

This week I concluded that I will perhaps never hang another piece of sheetrock. My last sheet of sheetrock at 68?  Lazy!

Most of the inside of the house as not one, but two layers.  It makes what deliberately looks on the outside like “just another trailer in the woods” have the same solid feel and acoustics of a stick-built house.  Even quieter.

But you ever part with sheetrock?  Even little hunks.  They can be used as heat shielding when sweating copper pipe, welding table covering…there are lots of uses.

I swear it would be easier to part with some of the stuff from my deathbed.

The same thing with small hunks of lumber.

I must have read 25 or 30 strategies on how to select which wood to keep and what to throw on the burn pile.  When you have a burn pile that will accommodate two cut-up 60 foot pine trees on a single match, you can make lots and lots of “cutting errors” disappear.  But which ones? ALL?

One scrap theory says you should only keep the wood that you have a distinct project in mind for.  All the rest of it?  Toss!

A little different take was the notion that nothing less than one board/foot be spared the local fires of hell.

If you didn’t take shop, other than  not being able to communicate with Donald Trump, Jr. who I assure you does know what a board-foot of lumber is, it’s a piece one inch thick, 12-inches wide, and 12 inches long. Of course a 1 by 12 is only a 3/4″ by 11.5″ piece, but let’s not quibble.

Sounded I had a workable plan until Elaine wandered through.  “Don’t throw that out! I have plans for it!”

“Well, where do you want it?  Do you want to use it now?”

Tact is not one of my strong suits when comes to “getting ‘er done.”  I just consider the task, turn off the brain, and work like a man possessed.  To do otherwise would give remorse and a sense of loss time to steal into the shop and hoodwink me.

The Tasmanian  Devil cartoon has nothing on me when I am in a burn-pile mood.  The Kubota sits with a bucket idling outside the shop door waiting for the bucket to fill with scrap so we can make another run down to the burn pile.

Truth is, the tractor idled for better than an hour at a time.  Parting with good wood – even less than a board foot – is one of the most difficult things there is.

Easier to send a child to college than a small piece of solid oak plywood that would maybe be useful for a tiny, itsy-bitsy cabinet.  You always know the kids will be back – after all parenting is learning to be a money dispenser.  But OAK Plywood or 7-skin Baltic Birch? No…tell me it ain’t so!

Then there are the boxes of things I haven’t gotten around to that would be nice to install one of these days.  I may actually get to  one of them this week.

That’s a built-in shop vac that I bought from HardLuck Freight back when.  1.5 horsepower, extra ducting, and a dandy accessories kit.

Not that I was a mess pot before…the 5 HP ShopVac coming through a Dust Right® Dust Separator  has worked fine.  It was that unit or a genuine Dust Deputy.    The decision, if you ever have the pleasure of a big shop, came down to the Dust Deputy I was looking at back-when didn’t have wheels on it.  Laziness counts around here, so I went with the wheeled unit, and it’s been great.

The rest of the tools were mostly pushed behind the mountains of scrap…but what with the big forest fires trying to choke people to death in the Pacific Northwest and our friends out in Burbank, I am done feeling guilty about the tiny bit of burning some nice, clear, and in some cases even sanded, wood.

What to do with a couple of full sheets of birch cabinet ply was solved by Elaine.  “I want some roll around cabinets under the windows in the guest room…”  “Uh, sure, lady….”

That will solve the plywood storage problem.  And the young son of OM2 who comes up and does a bit of helping now and then will be putting up some sections of gutter this weekend.  Which will clear out even more of the shop.  Jeez…I may get to a tool inventory, yet.

Elaine’s got her hands full with the screen porch.  Because she is an artist, and loves to paint, she has an amazing paint collection.  There must be 50-colors in use in our house…25 in the Egyptian-style second bedroom alone.

This would be fine if they were in the small tempera or Testors enamel bottles.  These are in one quart and one gallon cans.

My buddy the major and I are conspiring to get her back onto canvas and paints that will fit in a briefcase.

It has been said that as we get older, we tend to forget things.  It’s not true out here, though.  Elaine’s been coming up with tools that took the “one way ride” to the House and were never to return to the Shop or the Electronics bench.

Now I have TWO of those high-end $60/a/pop crimpers for automotive and household wiring.  Who knew?  Three pairs of ViseGrips too.

Finishing touches in the shop may include some practice work putting in laminate counters.  It’s not difficult, and it really makes a shop look grand.  Got the trim router…   That and good lighting.  The LED shop lights we have are great and having a clock and big thermometer on the wall?  It let’s us know how far behind we are on projects and when we can expect to break a sweat.

At some point, my office will come up on the  cleaning list.  I’m dreading that.

There’s all the test gear for the new book (Dimensions Next Door) and seven HF ham STATIONS though only linear amplifiers for three.

Toss in the Junior End of the World Seed Vault, the direct satellite weather receiver, a couple of VHF rigs and scanners… three computers, enough discrete components to fix anything and…well, do I need a spare antenna rotator?  Really?

It sounds like an overwhelming task.  And it is.  But now that Texas is “out of the oven” for another year and we can move without leaving a drip line, we are thinking about putting this place on the market as a complete, turnkey tree farm which would make some soon-to-retire folks from Houston a dandy new home. It’s been a lifetime project for us, no reason why someone else shouldn’t get to pick up the ball and run with it.

Did I mention it doesn’t flood?

Solar Flare Prepping

Turn things off.  Unplug wall warts if you’re really worried.  Park in a steel reinforced parking garage (and bring a hacksaw in case the gate fails, lol).

Seriously, I am not too worried about it.

If we all go Poof!  Then I was wrong.

More when I get out to the shop and get a Round Tuitt.  I know there are several of them out there… Elaine found my stash of nine bottles of sake.  That may take priority.

Volunteers?

Looking for 2-3 people to read Dimensions Next Door.  Non-fiction…let me know if you’re good at proofing.  No pay.  Just the 50-shades of language abuse that will leave you crying for more. Proofing marks expected promptly.  Will be ready for readers in about 2 weeks.

Depending on the sake and the Round Tuitts.

Write when you break-even,

George@ure.net

Directorate 153: "Operation 30"

We will often use the “thinking tool” of a purely hypothetical trans-governmental entity we call Directorate 153 in order to frame certain discussions that would seem highly improbably, absent a cohesive organizing force.

Once you get used to the concept of our “run-away think tank” ensconced in the hill just off to the side of the Shenandoah Valley, however, you will quickly see how this “concept modeler” has become a staple in our power-tools for thinking cabinet.
After we talk about last week’s injured economy from Harvey – and yesterday’s market decline that was “close enough” given we had previously presented the 9-day lag between Katrina smacking NOLA and the subsequent market waking from denial – followed by a 5% decline – we will ruminate on where the evidence (and body counts) are pointing.

A globally “coincidental” drop-back to 1930 population levels comes into view.  Along with a seriously under-estimated Kim Jung Un.

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