Fehu Monday, Merkstave Tuesday?


Hang on, bub.  Simple stuff, really:  What it means (for those familiar with Elder Futhark runes), is that our symbol du jour today would be the Fehu.  Which approximates cattle or great wealth.  Neander bling?  Uh…well…yes.  There was a time before E-Trade….

Tomorrow, ahead of a Fed decision on rates Wednesday (no change) we expect the market to “merstave” which is a “reversing sign” usually more negative than the first meaning.  Rough translation from neader-deutsche?  Up at the open, but no one is safe until the Janet speaks her piece Wednesday after the rate decision.

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This opening bias today, up 50 on the Dow futures, but less than half that on a percentage basis for the essenpee (<–new term, yes you can use it!) means to us that the BIG boyz are trying to drive prices up because post-Fed we could have a nice decline.

Or not.

In Peoplenomics Saturday, we discussed the concept of the “Kim Put” – which is where the markets drop Friday, then have a nice paint job rally Monday when we make it through a weekend, like this past one, where we do NOT blow up North Korea.

Today, president Bashed will speak at the U.N.  He tweeted today about NK’s “rocket man.”  Bash-media is having a field day.

But with Reuters noting Futures higher as North Korea tensions ease, we think the Kim Put notion we laid out this weekend is pretty interesting and, as usual, coming into view for others now.

The G20 Lie: Why We “Roll Our Own”

To be sure, there are lots of headlines around proclaiming that “global stocks” have reached new highs, or words to that effect.

While that is nominally true, there’s a missing piece of the puzzle:  What I call the G20 Lie.

On the Peoplenomics.com side, we track something called the “global index.”  Basically, it’s an equal-dollar summation index of multiple global markets.  U.S., Hong Kong, Germany…there’s a list.

Now feast your eye on this corner of one of our charts:

This corner begins late 2014 through present and it shows us that while the Global markets have indeed gone higher than mid 2015, they have only exceeded that old peak by a lousy 145-points.

Now let’s look at the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator. Just to have kept up with US admitted inflation, we need to have passed 35,371.  Which, oh by the way, we have but barely.  We’re locked in a no-grow, no go world.

What’s really going on is a phenomenon I call “Global Synchronized Inflation.”  The G20 are the perps, the US is an unindicted co-conspirator, and all the rest.

In short, the G20 is living The Big Lie, namely that if you make up enough “believable money” people will keep on living in the globally bankrupt state.  As long as it doesn’t dawn on anyone that it’s all a sham and farce, the band plays on while the Titanic takes on water.  As in watering down your purchasing power.

This is why, although the market is at all-time highs, you haven’t noticed a big pop in your standard of living.  By carefully orchestrating distractions (social justice, bashing Trump, pumping up racism, fighting many wars, not fixing our social ills, not balancing the budget, and least of all, by-gawd, not doing anything about the healthcare cost disaster and that whole pack of lies) you will be so busy on Hatebook and hanging on ever utterance of Colbert-think that the 900-pound elephant in the room (declining quality of life) will remain in-noticed.

(No everyone shares our views on Colbert: Review: Colbert Aside, Inclusive Winners Made for a Refreshing, Sharp Emmys…iz’zat what’cha call politicization of the Arts now?)

On a global average, if you have a household income of $100,000, you’re making (pre-tax) about $250 more per year than you were two years ago.  That was before Obamacare and higher taxes on most everything, so odds are very good that you’re lifestyle is rolling backwards./

My, ain’t it grand?

Why, I bet you feel 100% better now, don’t you?

Pay it no mind; our lot  in Life is not to be members of the Ruling Class.  We’re just here to shovel the stables, be cannon fodder, and get the table scraps.

Which is why today may feel like a Monday.


If you head hurts, might we recommend?

Memorize The complete list of Emmy winners.  Rule the water cooler talk!

Take up a collection and buy a magazine: Rolling Stone magazine up for sale.

Learn a new language: Sisvel obtient le droit exclusif d’octroyer des licences pour les brevets de Funke Digital basés sur la technologie de moteur de recommandations.

Oh, and speaking of IP: China plans 4-month crackdown to protect foreign investors’ intellectual property rights.  Like the transmutation of base metals into gold, believe it when you really see it…

Foreshadowing Our Next Book?

World first: ‘Storing lightning inside thunder’

Worth Your Time

Reading the Independent Press Standards Organization (UK) decision about a widely quoted article on climate change here.

The 900 pound elephant is still heat islanding…sheesh.

And, if You Missed It:

Delayed weaning reduces behavioral problems in cats. If it works for cats, might it work for dogs and, oh, humans?

Housing starts and trade data tomorrow.  We can hardly wait.

Now, go and earn a taxable income.  Millions on Social Security appreciate it.  Oh, wait…Millions on Welfare appreciate it. (Restated so the SJW’s – social Justus warriors can support it…)

Coping: With the Social-Industrial Complex

Lynch mobs are back.

Only, they are the new, improved, and most importantly “digital” portable lynch mobs.

Only thing is, they are not so neatly labeled.  It’s blurred by the media…perhaps on purpose.  But upon reflection,  new kind of business model has been spawned by America.  Not a healthy one, just a new one.

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Born of a lack of genuine, physics and tech breakthroughs, we have already written here (for 18-years on the UrbanSurvival site) extensively on how the world turned to the resource depletion issues in the 1990’s.

There’s a reason that nuclear power plant operators don’t seem totally serious to nuclear-skeptics about solving the nuke waste issue:  They have probably “run the numbers” and figure humans may be dead about the same time — or sooner — than their treacherous waste will be the global catastrophe in the wings it is.

Paul Schrader’s next film deals with the topic, but only at a broad-brush level.

The “detail level” of human extinction is not something that gets much press.  There aren’t thousands of people writing most SQL databases for the AI’s to feed on while they negotiate a way through resource constraints. The “why?” is simple:  Ain’t easy to monetize that kind of research.

A.I. is private – and so, we believe – the outputs of A.I. will serve the owners first, not us little peeps.  Let’s face it, you’re not going to build a train to have it run over you first, are you?

What the world has – in excess – however is opinions.  And these are being steadily manipulated and morphed into violent actions.  The Organizer’s bonus?  Those violent belief packages  are easily monetized.

Check your email.  Hate Trump? Send $20.

Hate Climate Change?  Send $20.

Hate racial injustice?  Send $20.

Sadly, this monetization aspect is not center stage.  It’s an undercover business model…you gotta love it.

In it’s place is a poor stand-in which carries the pop-groupthink moniker “social justice.”

And SJ hides behind another cause “Hate.”

It came as no surprise, therefore, to read this morning about how “New Segregation Signs Pop Up in Leftist Establishments.”

The jingoism sounds great.  “We stand with our community.” But stand for what?  Of course, there’s the love of all things LBGTQ – and don’t get me wrong, that has been a high-growth business model, for sure.

“We value Black Lives” is in there, too.  Again, playing the guilt card, cleaving the inclusive society into media-manageable, monetizeable snippets that can be rendered down to cash, power, and influence.

Accompanying the Emmy’s last night “Issa Rae at the Emmys: ‘I’m Rooting for Everybody Black.’” In the digital lynch mob era, the “social justice” promoters don’t see stories like this as fueling racial consciousness.  But, in our view, it does.  If race crosses your mind, you are a racist.  Regardless of which side of the aisle you’re on.

I learned long ago that if you want to see how “honest” and egalitarian something is, simply swap labels and see how it plays.  What would be the reaction if another actor had said “I’m rooting for everybody White.”?

Well, of course, that would result in pandemonium.

What’s not clear to me – and no one has explained it – is how racism is OK if one group does it, but not OK if another does?

I touched on the problem this weekend on the discussion side of this site.  A reader was attempting to defend the idea of non-citizens being allowed to vote in U.S. elections.  A pant load of poo if there ever was one.

I offered to rent a bus and next time there’s an election in Mexico, load up a bunch of gringos (Norte’s/putos) and roll down to Mexico and demand voting rights there.  We know that would end badly…

My point was that equality has always meant (until now) that labels, values, and the whole shebang (hebang and itbang now) ought to be a two-way street.

The one-way streets, though, have been put in at breakneck speed by the media’s leftist revolutionaries in charge of the mainstream content. Eyeballs are money.  Let’s whip ’em all up! They cover and indeed promote bias, differentiation, and financial/subgroup monetization.

Toward what end?  Besides their own careers and earnings, I mean?

Look at the Enema Awards.

There was hardly a thing about acting – the craft around which the event was once-upon-a-time centered.

In its place was a well-monetized left-wing Trump-bashing festival because the President of the United States has become one of those new one-way roads installed by the revolutionaries.  Roadblocks to independent thinking – and equality.  Hold your eyeballs, while they lift your wallet.

Emmys Go Political in First Minute: Colbert’s Opener Has Trump Treason, ‘Confederate’ Jokes — and Male Handmaids.”

I didn’t like Colbert before last night, but now I see him for what he really is: A convenient proof of how reverse hate, reverse discrimination, reverse science, and reverse history is being inculcated and institutionalized and (did I mention)  monetized….

Money IS power, make no mistake.

But instead of burning down St. Louis ( where 80 more were arrested last night), in the world of business models that doesn’t deliver “justice.”

Instead, more thoughtful people would simply put $5 per person in an envelope and mail it to the family legal defense fund, which would then take the route that really brings change: civil wrongful death and federal discrimination suits.  Money is the only punishment that matters today.

Meanwhile, I don’t see anyone actively promoting either equality as a two-way street or voting with your wallet as the shortest point between here and a sustainable future. Said the guy with the solar-powered office (since 2008).

Take it for what it is: A short ponder this morning as I try to figure out how the “social-industrial complex” gets us to being a “space-faring society” as envisioned in Star Trek and other future-oriented fictions.

I said long before the Trump election and I will say it again here:  Absent a real, measurable, achievable goal that will benefit all segments of society, we’re going down the crapper as a world.

I spent some serious time this morning on Hatebook trying to find a meaningful discussion of how we go from here to space but nothing of any consequence arose.

Just the usual me-too’s spewing the same time-worn and tired jingoisms; too lazy for original thought, The kind of spew that may eventually lead us down the path of replaying Germany.

Only question is whether Osaka will be the analog of the Archduke, or if we’ll make North Korea as our own spin-over of the Sudetenland.

The good news is?  We don’t need no stinking Beer Hall.  We’ve got Colorado and Washington.  And a world that has gone from Kristallnacht to crystal meth.

Brothers, can you spare some justice?

Write when you get rich,


Thinking Through “Kim Puts”

Yeah, the stock market is at record highs.  Not unexpected, and from here we may have even more upside ahead.

But, there is an ugly geopolitical mess half-way around the world:  Korea.  And the task this morning is to look at ways to possibly make a buck, or save some, when that whole thing “blows up.”

It’s a rethink on the old physics problem:  “What happens when an immovable object meets an irresistable force…”

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Bit-Crash: Bits Bite / Coins Collapse

I don’t often share Peoplenomics.com content on the UrbanSurvival side of thing, but sometimes when we get it right…and timely…as BTC’s crashed to under $3,000 each this morning before the “buy the dippers” came in…

We also said: “Meantime, we’re not alone in our assessment of Bitcoin.  “Jamie Dimon Slams Bitcoin as a ‘Fraud’ – Bloomberg Jamie Dimon Slams Bitcoin as a ‘Fraud’. He is also reported to have said that if he was looking to hire someone, he wouldn’t hire someone who believes in Bitcoins because ‘they’re stupid.’
An assessment that we heartily agree with and, for the record, I hold that despite what the charlatans and poor prognosticators claim, it STILL makes more sense to own some tiny, fractional share of a company than to place faith and savings in made-up money.

(Continues Below)


This is not to say that this is the end of the line for the crypto-currency promoters.  I know are lots of people who “foretell the future” and have been promoting BTCs since they were a under a buck.

Sometimes, though, you can skip the herd’s group-think, though by asking simple economic questions.

Like “What is the utility value of a BTC?

“Depending on which theory of utility is used, the interpretation of marginal utility can be meaningful or not. Economists have commonly described utility as if it were quantifiable, that is, as if different levels of utility could be compared along a numerical scale.[2][3] This has affected the development and reception of theories of marginal utility. Quantitative concepts of utility allow familiar arithmetic operations, and further assumptions of continuity and differentiability greatly increase tractability.

Contemporary mainstream economic theory frequently defers metaphysical questions, and merely notes or assumes that preference structures conforming to certain rules can be usefully proxied by associating goods, services, or their uses with quantities, and defines “utility” as such a quantification.”

Please note that classical economics (I like “old school”) is very pragmatic.  Yet the modern “revisionist” view says there is utility in being a proxy (substitute) for value.

Which is not quite true.

In order to be a storehouse of value there is the little matter of durability.  Good money (of any sort) must be durable, convertible to goods of value, transportable, divisible,  and some other things that slip this old addled brain.

You do understand that the lack of divisibility is what we don’t have diamond-based money, right?  A 6 carat rock has plenty of bling value.  But smash it with a hammer often enough, and Oilman2 will buy it for fractions of pennies on the dollar to coat his latest oil drilling bit.  That industrial app will be all that’s left of bling, you see.

In an internal combustion-based world? Oil is a fine storehouse of value.  Gold and silver meet some of our tests, too.

One solar flare, one “grid hard down” as my .mil friends call it…and BTCs are gone.

If there’s a soft underbelly to stocks (and there really IS) it is exactly this same notion:  That a fraction ownership position represented by a share of stock is only notional and electronic because everyone is trusting the Depository Trust Corp.  Ever try to get paper copies of stock shares, lately?

Back in the day, the stock market was more durable.  My first investment was in a convertible subordinated debenture in a company stock symbol EMF, long since vanished. (Symbol is presently Templeton Emerging Markets Fund,  but in not way related.  This was in 1970…)

But back in the day, when bought as “units” I got both shares and a debenture which entitled me to future shares at a favorable price.

Speaking of “old school” we don’t see debentures as being popular, anymore:

“A debenture is thus like a certificate of loan or a loan bond evidencing the fact that the company is liable to pay a specified amount with interest and although the money raised by the debentures becomes a part of the company’s capital structure, it does not become share capital.[2] Senior debentures get paid before subordinate debentures, and there are varying rates of risk and payoff for these categories.”

And by “convertible” it means I could convert the debenture to stock, at a low price ($4-bucks a share if I recall) when the current market price was higher.  I sold and converted then sold when the price was $7.35.

The disappearance of debentures, as part of the art of finance, is symptomatic of many things.  First is that computer systems like massive (but essentially simple) problems.

It’s easy to change the social security number from George’s to someone else’s for xx,xxx,xxx shares of something.  But think about the algorithm design for:  George buys xx,xxx units of a convertible subordinated debenture, then sells off the shares and then hangs on to the debenture for a year or two, then converts to shares and… (See the problem is mark-to-market for the debentures at time of exercise…where is a computer going to get that?)

With real paper, it works.  With real paper, I can own/control the shares and I’m a real fractional owner.  It still works with computers, too, but it becomes a big-ass database and that means a lot more potential for troubles.

Today?  Oh, sure, I have 200,000 shares of a little tech stock down in Austin (still in the “pinks” lol), but since I don’t have any paper (except for the trade slip from the online trading outfit) where is my proof that as a shareholder I would have “standing” as a fractional owner of a company?

In today’s world we have just “made up the answers of convenience.”  We call it all kinds of gobbledygook like “Modern Monetary Theory” and brand those who question each asymptote as cretins, throw-backs, conspiracy theorists, and worse.

Yet as another weekend appears at “Miller time” tonight, we have to wonder how many virtual financial virgins are being sacrificed on the Alter of Free Lunch with the BitCrash?

I have warned time, and time-again it was coming.  I thought the drop to below $3,000 would take longer (October November based on the slope of the curve).  But we see that in today’s world of skeptics and high-speed knowledge that the angle of price increases is lower and the speed of declines is faster.

Yet,  as an angle,  people are still wired pretty much the same.

Our Economics Concept du Jour looks like this:

Gosh, are we having fun yet, or not?

Stepping over to the white board (and taking a huff of the marker pen), Professor Ure continues:

“We hope that unlike Katrina-Rita, we do not see a market decline of 5% in the next few months, but what that would mean is a decline to 2,400 on the S&P can not be ruled out…”

And thanks to the crazy professors brainamp.xls Elliott wave tool, tomorrow’s Peoplenomics becomes a short, almost self-writing exercise today.  Because remember, kiddies, whatever happens this fall on the downside may be only an A wave.  The  location and magnitude of the B wave rally would be instructive in that it will point to the magnitude of our capital gains problems that will result from all the money made in the C wave downside.

Or, so we hope, lol.

No denying one thing:  Why the cast of clowns was selling Bitcoins, once again, UrbanSurvival was dead-to-nuts right and our long-term view was correct.

The rest of the ignorant financial media…the ones who have been pimping Bitcoin?  Not a peep.  40% drop inside two weeks and it’s like farts in church.  No one talks about them.  UREly amazing.

Retail Sales

Hot off the…

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2016.

Total sales for the June 2017 through August 2017 period were up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2017 to July 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from July 2017, and up 3.3 percent (±0.7 percent) from last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from August 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 7.5 percent (±1.9 percent) from last year. ”

And if you don’t have an auto graphing plug-in for your cerebral cortex yet:

We expect the cerebral auto graphing module will be available with the iPhone 31 when it’s released for $42-million each in 2029.  Line forms over that way…

Terrorism is Back

Tubed in London.

But let’s turn it into a Trump bash, shall we? Trump’s Tweet Condemning the ‘Loser Terrorist’ in the London Attack Is Causing Some Confusion.

Jeez…next we will have shocking revelations about how Trump brushes his teeth…

From BBC Global News

Doesn’t impact anyone we know, does it? British man dies in Sri Lanka crocodile attack.

Almost as life-changing as Fox’s Ancient toys unearthed.

Still too many channels, too much “news capacity” for actual deliverables.

Where my cynical pills…need another handful.

Testing, Testing

North Korea fires missile.  Japan learns duck & cover.

NYT on it with North Korea’s Threat Pushes Japan to Reassess Its Might and Rights.

Coping: A Hobby that Rocks

Yeah.  I know.  “Last thing you need, Ure, is another damn hobby...”

Admittedly, between Elaine and I, we’ve been through a few of them.  Most recently, I’ve been taking a break every forty-minutes and hitting either the treadmill or the weight machine for 10-minutes of “high intensity training” on the theory that I’ll live long.  Been stories out this week about the dangers of sitting

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Still, with by buds off wandering the uplands of Arizona, struck me that they should be scouting turquoise and other decent stones.

While my mind was wandering, I got back to the Light Crown Project I have mentioned.  That’s where we pump the brain with specific light colors (infra/deep red, blue, and green) applied to the trigeminal nerve and “third eye” area.

And that got me to looking at a new book on my reading list which I’d gotten when the Light Crown work started (A Lapidary of Sacred Stones: Their Magical and Medicinal Powers Based on the Earliest Sources) and one thing led to another.

First thing you know, another book jumped out at me: the Revised Lapidary Handbook.

One thing leads to another and the first thing you know, I found that there are lapidary bits for the Dremel tool.  So the $19 Agile-shop 50 Pcs Diamond Tipped Coated Rotary Grinding Head Jewelry Lapidary Burr Grit is now coming our way.

Since the shop is well equipped, we already have some diamond burrs – another $15 well-spent.  Used previously etching out traces on PCB board material (and Vector boards) used in the Light Crown project.

I figure this is enough to get me started at least.  So with “the goods” either on hand (or on the way) it was time to talk to my unindicted co-conspirator.

George, you have the same problem I have – too many hobbies, too many interests, and we don’t have enough time for all of them…

Hmmm…certain truth to that.

When I was cleaning up the shop recent, I found an 85CC motorized bike kit project that I’d picked up on eBay back when.  After the end of the world, my plan was to hook it up on one of the mountain bikes and get some well-condensate from Clarence down the street and be able to go into town where nothing would be available.  Kinda like Houston the past couple of weeks.

Which has what to do with Lapidary?  Oh…yeah…so UNDER the bike to motor-bike conversion, I found that eons back I had picked up a double-barrel rock polishing system, 10-20 pounds of raw gemstones.

Explaining this to Elaine, she mentioned that she had both some uncut as well as some polished stones to work one, too, and yeah…that would be fun.

Except, neither of us has room on the schedule.  We you have 29-acres of land, you don’t own the land.  It owns you.  (We’re still snickering at having a guest room/gym.  There’s plenty of work and weight to be lived around here, so what is the point of a weight machine, again?)

From there, the conversation turned to business.

“Do you think there would be any business for a well-equipped shop like ours if we just, oh, you know: rented some of that cheap square-footage in a strip mall, now that shopping is all being killed by Amazon?”

She regarded my question as ‘fair to partly crazy.’

Lawyers, lawyers, lawyers.  And after insurance, what’s the point?

“Yeah, but think how many elderly people there would be in Phoenix or up in Payson who are retired, but don’t have a big shop.  So they can’t get on a 10 in saw or a big drill press because they have done what we’re talking about — downsizing!  Why, I can see it now: Renaissance Centers where the Industrial Arts are still alive.  Weld-your-own chainmail for the Renaissance Faire and make those new cabinets yourself!  Why, there’s be a line around the block!!!”

No.  Too hot.  Besides, your target market is too old to use half the machines.  How many 80-year old’s are throwing full 3/4-inch sheets of plywood around?  Besides, look at our eyes…You SURE you want those people around power tools?”

Damn.  She’d nailed the business problem dead-to-nuts.  Lawyers, insurance and eyesight around power tools:  Yeah… I knew there was a reason I hadn’t quit by real life to run to Phoenix and open such a place….

The shop won’t really be ready for any lapidary work until the middle of October.  My consigliere and I will be busy with “Old Man Labs” and the hacking space-time project until then.  And, if we do manage to isolate The Ure Effect, well, then filing patents would be my next job.

More likely, though, CERN will rule bosons, Elaine will rule bozos….and the great Balance in the Universe will remain undisturbed.

Until the Dremel bits show up.

Don’t know if I mentioned my friend (‘the major’) is well known in medical circles for his training in subtle energy medicine.  (I skip some details here and there).

One reason we have moderate (egg) sized amethyst crystals around, is that if you place one on each of the cardinal headings around your house (4 of ’em, NESW direction) they tend of keep certain kinds of…oh-oh, off into woo-woo now.

But that’s precisely where the gemstones and “precious stones” stuff hails from.  But this part of the Lapidary of Sacred Stones write-up got me to thinking:

“Drawing from a wealth of ancient Arabic, Greek, Jewish, and European sources–from the observations of Pliny the Elder to extremely rare texts such as the Picatrix and Damigeron’s Virtue of Stones–Claude Lecouteux provides a synthesis of all known lore for more than 800 stones. He includes such common examples as the emerald, which when engraved with the figure of a harpy holding a lamprey in its claws will banish panic and nightmares, and beryl, which when appropriately carved can summon water spirits or win its owner high renown, as well as more exotic stones such as astrios, a stone celebrated by ancient magicians and whose center glows like a star. Lecouteux also examines bezoars–stones formed in animals’ bodies–as well as “magnets” that attract materials other than iron, such as gold, flesh, cotton, or scorpions.”

I had to admit that sounded like pretty cool stuff to tinker with.  Plus, homemade bling that’s one-off instead of dime-store crap, yeah, some Big Dog appeal to that, too.  (Woof!)

I can definitely see how by time we get to the “hot season” in Texas (which is sort of like the cold season in Hell) next summer, how we just might be “rockin'” more than the Kasbah.

Already cruising “lapidary” items on eBay and CL.  Like any new hobby, we begin by looking at equipment, prices, and the specialized lingo.

Until 20-hours ago, I had no idea what “dopping” was.

After watching this video? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsgsxmxaMK4

Now, I think I could actually do it.  Badly?  Sure.  But that’s like any hobby.  My first few landings weren’t good, and I lost many sailboat races, bit it’s the thrill of the chase that keeps us young.

What’s your next hobby?  I don’t plan to die at rest,  and neither should you.

Write when you get rich, (more coffee?)


Nice Rally, Now what?

We have been holding our breath for the market to hit one of our long-projected highs.  To be sure, we got there Wednesday (picture in a second) but I would have liked to have seen it faster.  Like a month ago.

This is one of those “big uglies” in economics that no one likes to talk too much about:  The speed of the market is based on the speed of communication of price information.

Back in the lead-in to the Great Depression, there was no such thing as  SMS, the web, and such.  Instead, people had to get the afternoon papers, or the next morning’s in order to figure out how their stocks were doing.

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As a result, for the large fraction of America that didn’t live in NYC, that meant when the market closed in afternoon, they were still at work and wouldn’t be home until 5 PM.

Problem was, when there was local breaking news, the newspapers didn’t always wait for the stock market tables.  Instead, they would rush to get the breaking news out to people.

That’s one of the historical footnotes between the “morning paper” versus the “afternoon paper” battle in most markets.  The “morning paper” would have the previous day’s stock tables, but when someone got up at 6 AM, they would not have time to do much serious trading when the New York exchange was opening in a few minutes two time zones away.

This had a real impact on markets:  Speeds that news travels is mighty important stuff when comes to bubbles popping.  Our Peoplenomics.com subscribers got the heads-up yesterday outlining our targets for Bitcoins.  They will appreciate, as suggested by our chart yesterday, that BTC’s are down in the $3,620 range today.

Back to forecasting, though:  Look at the green arrow on this chart which we have been holding up for subscribers now for almost six-months:

This is our Peoplenomics daily trading spreadsheet, so you won’t find the number correlated to anything but our own proprietary work. Yesterday’s close on our index, 20,592.32, means the market has our permission to promptly decline.

While it’s true that “techs lead the way” – at least it has been for a while – we are wondering now since Bitcoin is happily replacing the ’29 stock bubble, if perhaps BTC’s lead the way will become the new mantra foro the ages.

Time will tell.

Consumer Prices Just Out

We can only assume that they would go up by some amount.  The only real question was “How much?”  So here’s today’s answer:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.

Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter accounted for nearly all of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 2.8 percent in August as the gasoline index increased 6.3 percent. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent in August with the rent index up 0.4 percent. The food index rose slightly in August, with the index for food away from home increasing and the food at home index declining.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in August. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and recreation all increased in August. The indexes for airline fares and for used cars and trucks were among those that declined in August.

The all items index rose 1.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, a larger increase than the 1.7 percent increase for the 12 months ending July. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 1.7 percent for the fourth month in a row. It has remained in the range of 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent since June 2011. The energy index rose 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, and the food index increased 1.1 percent.

Let me put on my golf announcer voice…ahem…

On your leader board, gasoline is up 10.4% for the year, heating oil up 9.4%.”

We are especially entertained by the lack of a total medical cost number because that would out a) the big lies of Obamacare and b) underscore why EVERYONE IN CONGRESS SHOULD BE UNELECTED next time they want another change to ‘eff us over…  No total medical cost in the cost of living?

And the delusional crap about “All items less food and energy?” Another idiot’s number because take away food and energy and we’rea all starving and dying in the cold and dark.  (WTF are these pipple?)

We like to follow consumer prices pretty closely.  Not that it matters too much, since wages are what they are and such.  But in a nation which runs so close to the financial brink (and most people can’t skip a paycheck without the bottom falling out from under their financial position) the real things to be looking at here are the sectors.

By comparing the increases between energy and food, for example, we can make certain inferences about the nation’s economic future.

Meanwhile?  Scrooge McUre is 50% short techs.  Which will open down this morning.

DACA Claims

We notice the democrats are either hearing things (again) or the republicans are lying (again).  Either way, the basic storyline from the Associated Press is “What happened at dinner? Trump, Dems don’t see eye to eye” on DACA/Dreamers.

Is this “negotiating style” or delusion?

I do worry about Trump’s state:  I know the last thing I want to do is get up at 3 AM and leave my honey to go post some Tweet, or other.  And Melania is almost as cute as Elaine.  Just sayin’

On the other hand, Mr. T gets a gold star for acuity on this: “Donald Trump: ‘Crooked’ Hillary Clinton Lost the Election Because She ‘Had No Game’

Yeah…tell me again why the FBI and JustUs isn’t following up?

Stupid Political Correctness

You may not be able to see it living in the big city as you (statistically) do.

But political activism is starting to piss off a lot of people out here in fly-over country.

This bullshit with sports figures not standing for Our Anthem?  I will never buy a time for those pricks.  I vote every day – with my wallet.  Now baseball has it’s hands full too as a ‘Racism Is as American as Baseball’ Banner Unfurled at Fenway Park

Trump’s view during the campaign echoes as common sense now:  “G-won…get ‘tm outta here…”  Which Boston did so I can still watch baseball.  And if it’s not on, I have a can of paint I can watch dry.

A hat tip to Charlie Parker down at WOAI (San Antonio) for mentioning one Houston football player, J.J. Watt has raised $31-million for hurricane relief.

While it’s true the telethon raised $44 million, I couldn’t stand the political crap and climate sales job that was part of it.

Oh, and Watt was passing out relief supplies.  I haven’t seen a DiCaprio picture in the mud doing hands-on help…but I don’t get out much.

Coping: Seasonal Calendar Issues, Camping

I’ve been looking at the calendar a lot lately.  Coming up sooner than ever, it seems, on “the holidays.”

In Texas, holidays include the opener of the bow season for deer, opening of the youth season for deer (where an amazing number of 6-7 year olds are leased and immediately become expert shots with a .308), the regular deer season, any day it snows, and when the bass start biting in the spring.

More than astronomical data, or church tradition, Texas Parks and Wildlife runs the real holidays here.

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You don’t want to plan any important business the first week of deer season; most folks will be missing from their duty stations.

Since I don’t hunt, the coming replay of the Tet Offensive provides acoustical cover from my penchant to kill targets on the range out back.

If I were to be a hunter, the local herd comes through twice a day (around dawn and again in the evening) so there are 6-10 whitetails as a back-up food source on the hoof.

Planning for the rest of the holidays is simple enough:

  • Order any organic big  turkey.
  • Stock up on extra-big oven bags.
  • Figure who to invite over from Thanksgiving libations.

Christmas is even easier; Amazon has made the “opening packages” tradition an all-year even.  So a Danish dinner (leg of pork and high-calorie sides) and then all that’s left for planning is New Years.

Rock Salt

One of the to-do tasks on the list today is “Get 50-pounds of rock salt.”

No, we’re not getting pickled.

But there’s a good bit of discussion in organic bug-killing circles about how 50-pounds of rock salt, spread as a good line around your foundation, will keep termites away.

Theory is that the salt makes in-ground insects need water like mad and they essentially blow-up.  There’s a five-dollar word for it, but I can’t remember it at this hour.  Coffee hasn’t kicked in, yet.

No, we don’t have termites, but I figure a 50-pound sack of rock salt is pretty cheap insurance.  My plan is to sprinkle it around the shop (a pole building with cedar poles) around the foundation, especially near the doors since there’s lots of wood in the shop.

While I was at it, I reckoned it wouldn’t hurt to pour a couple of cups around the screen porch footings and around our three power poles that bring the feeder to a meter pole between the house and the shop.

Friends from back in my sailing days insisted that a boat, kept in saltwater its whole life, was not particularly more maintenance-intensive than fiberglass.  Both hulls needed annual bottom paint.

Unless, of course, you know the yards (in B.C. and Mexico mainly) that were still putting on high tin content paint.  No such places left – on environmental grounds.  But there is always a trade-off.

Back on point: I don’t know if termites would like iodized, or not.  Himalayan pink?  No thanks…

Prepping Note

I was going through our “seed vault” Wednesday.  Needed to free up some storage space and I noticed we had a lot of seeds.

Many seeds aren’t good more than a season, or three.   Most of ours were past their “used-by’s.”

We also did some reading trying to discover if hermetically sealed cans of seeds were worth the extra dough.  Jury is still out on that.

We’ve got some 5-year old canned seeds and it might be an interesting home science project to see what kind of germination rate (not to be confused with German Nation rates on the economic side of the house),

Glamping or Prepping?

My buddy Gaye and Survival Hubby are on their first expedition into the wilds of upland Arizona in their new bumper-pull.

Gaye’s got an article on her site about the 10-benefits of “Me Time.”  Glamping is the hybridization of glamor and camping.

Elaine and I have talked about camping.

Every time I broach the subject she reminds me on what it was like living in the mountains of Utah, running a water-drilling rig, welding pipe, cooking on a wood stove, and washing the diapers for two of her boys in a cold-water creek.

Hard to fathom, I know.  She also doesn’t look like she was in the Army and can field-strip an M-16, either.

Point is, we have these discussions and she’ll ask pertinent questions.

How much a night for a decent hotel…like that Hilton in Grand Junction, Colorado with the great views?”

I have to think back, since I used some points on that one.  “I dunno…less than $200 a night for sure.”

And the cost of a camping trailer, new, with the options, cookware, glamping stuff?

Again, I was stumped.  “I dunno, maybe $25K?”

“And for those people high-end Monaco-type diesel pushers?”

“Jeez…I dunno. $400K, maybe?

“So, 125-room nights in a good hotel.  Or, if we’re talking high-end RV 2,000 room-nights…”

Sure enough, she had a point.  “But what about the view and camping right on the edge of the lake?”

What about room service, movies, full bar downstairs, no dishes, and the golf course outside the lobby?

Seeing her point, I quickly changed topics.

But as a follow-up point to Irma and Harvey, I’d sure be interested to here first-hand reports of how the camper and RV crowd fared.

Especially with the power still out for so many.

Back-up, portable, well-stocked housing actually makes sense.

Especially if you can drive it to somewhere cooler like the Arizona uplands.

And double-especially if the fish are biting…  which, for Mrs. and Mr. Strategic, I hope they are.

The closest I’m likely to get is my outdoor cooking center on the deck.  One of our prepping items I’ve been saving for nuclear winter is about to come out of the box: A Camp Chef Camping Outdoor Oven with 2 Burner Camping Stove.

One of the best reasons for glamping, RV’ing, or even going fishing is that food tastes so much better outside. I don’t know what it is, but outside in the 50-70 temp range, something magical happens to taste.

Elaine acknowledges that, too.  Just so long as I clean up my mess and put things in the dishwasher when done.

And that gets us to the real question du jour:  How much of camping and RV’ing is driven by this food taste-change? Or is there a point to communing with Nature once in a while, to remember what it was like back in cave times?

Write when you get rich,


Bracketing All-Time Highs

I touched on this morning’s topic on the UrbanSurvival site Tuesday. Where will the high for this market hit?

This morning the details.  You see, it raises very interesting technical questions:  Do Elliott Wave principles apply to Aggregated Market data, for example?

And in our Focus section: A comparison of the 1929 stock bubble run-up and Bitcoins performance.  It’s just what we forecast in June. Tulips for breakfast is here.

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Trump as Hoover II: Top Approaches

We have been delighted this morning (since 4 AM!) to have found an upcoming “area of agreement” between two very interesting wave counts.  As you may know, we have a spreadsheet on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber site that we call the “brainamp.xls

What this little gem does is it lets you put in any two points from a chart that looks like either a Wave 1 or an A Wave.  Then it calculates the projected Wave 2 (or B), the 3 (or C) the 4 (or D) and the 5 (or E).

This morning’s delight?

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We are coming to a major area of agreement between a long-term wave count and a short-term count.  So while we will remain long until our target levels are crossed, I don’t expect it will be too much longer.

This arriving point (which we’ve been anticipating) is one reason we have not been dancing and screaming at the top of our lungs that “The Top Is In.”  Sure, there was a potential top in early August that we mentioned, several times in fact, but now we are coming to what we think will be the real deal.

This top will be driven not only by the lack of tax reform, the continuing Obamacare tax (If it ain’t optional, it’s a tax…just like auto insurance is another tax; a discussion for a Peoplenomics report…) but by the realization that the recovery from two-state’s worth of hurricanes ain’t gonna come cheap!

We have penciled in about 5 percent of GDP this next year.  And in order to make ends meet, there are going to be several factors that could (in our humble view) run the current Trump Bump off a cliff.

The first is the changing of the guard at the Fed.  It’s below the perception threshold of most people, but last Wednesday, Stanley Fisher announced his resignation as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve:

Stanley Fischer submitted his resignation Wednesday as Vice Chairman and as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective on or around October 13, 2017. He has been a member of the Board since May 28, 2014.
“Stan’s keen insights, grounded in a lifetime of exemplary scholarship and public service, contributed invaluably to our monetary policy deliberations. He represented the Board internationally with distinction and led our efforts to foster financial stability,” said Chair Janet L. Yellen. “I’m personally grateful for his friendship and his service. We will miss his wise counsel, good humor, and dry wit.”
Dr. Fischer, 73, was appointed to the Board by President Obama for an unexpired term ending January 31, 2020. His term as Vice Chairman expires on June 12, 2018. During his time on the Board, he served as chairman of the Board’s Committee on Financial Stability as well as the Committee on Economic and Financial Monitoring and Research. He represented the Board internationally including at the Financial Stability Board, the Bank for International Settlements, the Group of 20, the Group of Seven, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Before joining the Board, Dr. Fischer was governor of the Bank of Israel, from 2005 to 2013. He was vice chairman of Citigroup from February 2002 to April 2005. He served as first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund from September 1994 through August 2001. From January 1988 to August 1990, he was the chief economist of the World Bank. He was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1977 to 1999 and associate professor from 1973 to 1977. Prior to joining the faculty at MIT, he was an assistant professor of economics and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Chicago.”

Now we are reading today that Janet Yellen had a breakfast meeting a while back with Ivanka Trump, leading to speculation she may be back for another term.  But there had also be a lot of lobbying for Gary Cohn. But if you read the NY Times carefully (which can take a while, admittedly) you would know that Cohn’s on the ropes and no likely to get the Fed nod:

“The new chief of staff has tried to shield Gary D. Cohn, the chairman of the National Economic Council, from Mr. Trump’s continuing wrath since the former Goldman Sachs executive went public with his disgust at the president’s response to the deadly violence last month in Charlottesville, Va.

Our Texas Outback in the Piney Woods analysis suggests that a misstep on the Fed appointment could have calamitous results.  Maybe not by itself, but….

2. Problem #2 is Congress inability to get much of anything done.  The republican party, which once stood for small central government, large personal freedom, and small taxes, has suffered a fatal collision with political correctness.

Professional problem stewards Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have managed to thwart Donald Trump’s reform plans by failing to pass tax reform, by failing to reform Obamacare, and by holding up his nominations, and by…well, you know the list.

The problem which will implode the economy?  People out here in “fly-over country” are sick and tired of seeing the scum-sucker in office come home “to the district” from their junkets just long enough to say “I will fix it IF YOU REELECT ME!”

In today’s world, there’s enough political awakening and as one reader so aptly put in in one of the comment this morning  “We Need a Crisis.”  Granted, the author was talking about the idiots of Portland, Oregon, a fine example of how political correctness and too much dope results in urban collapse in slow motion….BUT it does scale nicely, since social diseases do seem to have a kind of “political load-balancing” scheme that any server farm would envy.

He won’t get a royalty but “We Need a Crisis” is now next to “Everything is a Business Model” in Ure’s Laws of How the World Really Operates, volume xiii.

3.  The last puddle of poo has to do with how long the insurance industry can go before it has to start dumping assets.  We know that insurance is complicated stuff, and we appreciate that our neighbor who’s an insurance adjuster now has several lifetimes of work stacked up, but eventually, someone will have to cut checks and dump assets to cover them.

On the Peoplenomics side, a week or so back, we ran  the numbers of Katrina/Rita.  That dark duo experienced a rising market for about 10-days after the impact.

However, what then followed was about a 5% market decline.

Now, you could argue there was no connection and that the decline was of a periodic, cyclical nature, and would have happened anyway.  But notice what has happened to New Orleans? Still not fully recovered.

As the WaPo reports this morning: Irma leaves millions in the dark in Florida.  Still, seems to us there are even more “in the dark” on Capitol Hill.

Meantime, on breaks from our comedic efforts, we will watch Disney stock on reports of Disney’s hurricane trouble.  Did Donald duck?  (Sorry, I was just being Goofy, I guess, garsh….)

Which financial tripwire will be the Trump wire?

Stay tuned.  Hoover II may be about to materialize.

Be Happy!

The National Federation of Independent Business has just published their Small Business Optimism Index: “The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.6 points to 105.2, preserving the surge in optimism that started the day after the election..”

We had to scamper back to the long side of the market Monday…but with futures forecasting the Dow up 60 at the open, we should be back in the green shortly…

More reason to be delirious? CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquencies Remain Low in June.

This is What?

Time’s RSS feed is pointing to the “story” they have about “Why a $1,000 iPhone Isn’t as Crazy as It Sounds.”

Oh?  That a story or an ad?

While we admit that Apple is very much a religion (dressed up in tech clothes), that’s OK,  it’s still true that an Android has most of the feature set for a fraction of the price.  Just don’t get into a discussion with an Apple owner about it.  Most seem to have been through Apple Inquisitor training that teaches how to respond to the Great Unwashed, Unconverted, and Unrepentant.

One feature that may be interesting? What will augmented reality do on the new iPhones?  Don’t like the reality that’s not augmented, eh?

Sanction Brazil!

While we have mindless babble going on about “climate change” there is a HUGE and easily actionable story in Brazil.  If we’re going to “sanction Russia” what about other despotic governments?

Here’s a tip of the iceberg: AMAZON MASSACRE Gold miners slaughter 10 from remote tribe.

But there is so much more.  The wholesale clearing of land, destruction of the rainforests, failure to contain a soaring birth rate…runaway corruption.

Once again, those phony “leaders” in Washington remain asleep and with a blind-eye.  It leads us back to the ugliest truth of all:  Everything is a Business Model.  Even killing off those unable to defend themselves.

As Scientific American reported a while back “…most experts agree that we are losing upwards of 80,000 acres of tropical rainforest daily, and significantly degrading another 80,000 acres every day on top of that.”

I’m going to go puke now. I won’t buy products from Brazil. One wallet won’t change much…but maybe if three of four of us…