Coping: Christmas System 1: Room-by-Room

Hate to admit it, but I am a compulsive manager.  Which is to say when there is something to be done, the first thing I do is sit back with a big cup of coffee and think about how to accomplish the task in the most methodical & efficient way possible.

This applies to Christmas, as much as anything else.  So, now and then over the next few weeks, I’ll show you a couple of ways to make Christmas shopping a very short, joy-inducing, event.  Nothing but brain cells and clicks, as Ure sees it.

The only real problem is deciding which method to follow to get to the sweet-spot of the joyous holiday blah, blah, blahs…

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The first idea I came up with is called Room-by-Room.  We have By-Gender, then there’s By-Hobby, and several others.

Which oughta be obvious, unless you’re hung-over or just need a caffeine infusion before taxing the brain.  Let’s wander around Uretopia ranch and I’ll point out a few things…

Front Gate:

The front gate of this place is usually open.  In rural East Texas, that’s short-hand for “we’re home and open to receiving guests provided you called first and we’re expecting you...”  That’s also “rural code” for “We can drop you from here…”

An open gate also means the mailman and the PS and FedEx drivers are welcome.  There are too many times (talking to our drivers, who play Santa several times a week all year-long) that a closed gate would result either in a trip to Palestine (14 miles) or to Tyler (37 miles) to pick up a missed delivery.  Gate’s gotta be open.

Still, we’ve been eyeing this Mighty Mule MM360 Automatic Gate Opener for Medium Duty Single Swing Gates for 16′ Long or 550 lb.  The “problems” with this little project is obvious:  We don’t presently have 120 volt power up at the gate.  Putting it in isn’t terribly hard, except I’d have to rent a trencher ($$$) and pay OM2‘s son a few bucks, and that’d solve the power problem.

Provided, that is, we don’t cut the telephone cables and the water lines in the process.  Those are trip-wires.

At that, what could go wrong?  Well the power could go out.

And what about the delivery guys?  Do we give then a code?  Oh-oh, wouldn’t that mean a pour (of concrete if you’re a snoozing slicker) and putting in a pedestal and THAT in turn, means big trucks (thinking concrete and lumber yard delivers) won’t be able to make the turn.

Hmmm… there has to be some way to “tune-up” the look of the front gate.

Which gets us to a $12 LIYUDL Solar Powered house address number Lamp Light,3W 4 LED Waterproof Doorplate Stainless Steel Light.  While there’s only one review, I figure this could be mounted over the existing house numbers and that would be the extent of changing the look of the place.  $12 instead of $330.  I can live with that.  Our meanderings resume…

In the office, one of my chairs is being snarfy.  It’s hard to beat Amazon Basics for things like this.  So a AmazonBasics Mid-Back Mesh Chair for $65 will be my big “end of year” office splurge for the year.

Except for TurboTax Home & Business 2017 Fed+Efile+State PC/MAC Disc [Amazon Exclusive] on  disk, which runs $95.

Off to the guest room/gym next:  Bintiva Professional Grade, Non Slip Grip, Neoprene Coated Dumbbells 10 LB Pair – Blue is about the only thing I could think of. If you have a treadmill, weight machine, kettle balls and oxygen, what else is there? (Elaine already one dumbbell…what’s two more?)

Nothing to get for the bathroom in the guest quarters.  I did want to mention that back in September, I picked up a Winsome 92436 Luggage Rack with Shelf which at the time was $29-bucks.  Today it’s up to $39.  If this is a hint about tomorrow Consumer Price Report, call in the Astroglide crew.

Still, can’t say enough good things about the luggage rack.  Elaine keeps a basket of fresh towels on it and rolls up the bath mat there when we don’t have company.  Which is most of the time…

(The GQ water heater is behind that door, so nothing’s blocked…)

Moving to the shop, the Big One on the wish list is a plasma cutter. I keep thinking I would do more metal work except that cutting raw stock down with the chop saw is noisy.

I spend more time looking at Amazon’s Super Deal Plasma Cutter Cutting 50AMP CUT-50 Digital Inverter 110-220V Welding Welder Cutting Machine Dual Voltage w/ Free Mask for $229.  No, a handheld free mask doesn’t excite me, either.  But, cutting 1/2-inch steel without firing up the oxy-rig?  Yeah, now you’re talking something… (You know you’re aging some when you spend more time on the tool pages than  the porn pages…)

The problem I have (more like an addiction) is I love tools.  We’ve had the “tool slut” conversation before.

I was all set to check out not only with the plasma cutter, but a boat-load of consumables.  Even went over to the house to talk to Elaine about it.  “Do what you want, dear, it’s your money….”  OMG, they broke the mold: What a wonderful wife, right?

Then suddenly, on the way back to the office (which is off the shop) I stopped in my tracks.  All that long-ago MBA training came back to me in a flash…

If you buy a tool, don’t buy anything unless the work done with the tool will be at least 10 X the price of tool…otherwise, rent.

Well, spit fire and save matches!  $250 forth of cutter and consumables would mean $2,500 worth of cutting prior to welding.  That’s gobs of cutting!

Been thinking about welding up a trailer, though, but been stymied by the shipping costs of having metal delivered.  Non-trivial, at best.

For a second, the mental fog cleared:  We’ve lived 14-years out at the end of the wire with nothing more than  a pickup truck, so what did I need a trailer for?

The mental chatter began to scream:

You can get some of that great FREE stuff on Craigslist and be able to swoop in and pick up those bargains that show up on the Criagslist in the Materials section…”

Hold it! (Rational brain working again?) That would only result in what?  (all together: MORE WORK!!!)  I’m how old?

In the end, I decided something for the electronics bench made a hell of a lot more sense: An ESD Safe Compact Desoldering Station (CSI474A). Turned out to be cheaper (by far) than the plasma cutter ($130 vs. $250) and I really do work on thousands of dollars worth of equipment.  So this one (I’m telling myself) makes the 10X rule.

The 10X rule is very useful. I came up with a corollary you might be able to use if the plasma cutters go on sale in January or February:

What if we consider 10X time savings as a criteria?  That would give us a more “wiggle-room.” And it’s how I justified the rototiller:  The garden soil would NEVER get turned over without a tiller.  Given a shovel, it’s like trying to turn  over pieces of a parking garage floor.  Ever try planting in Quik-Crete?

Speaking of which!  We have a few bare spots in the yard that just never want to fill-in right.  That’s because the soil is concrete-like.  While I was shopping the answer seemed to be stuff: Liquid Aerating Soil Loosener- Aerator Soil Conditioner- No Mechanical or Core Aeration- Simple Lawn Solutions- Any Grass Type, All Season- Great for Compact Soils, Standing water, Poor Drainage..  Sure: $30 bucks, but better than not having the lawn established and weeds coming up.

We will get to this March, or so.  Figure by the time I get around to reading the directions.  By then, soil temps will support grass seeding again.

One other tool – and this is part electronic, part cook: ES6530B Non-Contact Digital Laser IR Infrared Thermometer Temperature Gun for Kitchen Cooking BBQ Automotive Industrial, -58? – 1022? (-50? to 550?) with HD Backlight LCD Display Accuracy Reading which was $33.

The idea of having this around the electronics bench is being able to check component temps without electrocuting yourself.  It also has other uses, like seeing how hot the oven is when proofing yeast which like 94F ideally.

We (*Zeus the cat and me) spent a fair bit of research time on this:  The “critical measurement” on these thermometers is called the D:S (distance to sense) ratio;  Cheap units are about 8:1  while a better unit is 12:1 and realty good (meaning more expensive) are 20:1.

The 8:1’s give a reading in about a 2-inch circle at one foot.  The 12:1’s should give about an  inch of spot at a foot.  The 20:1 units will give you 3/4-inch at a foot (or better).  The 20:1 units are more spendy but sometimes you get what you pay for.

So much for thinking about Christmas….

I’s invite you to wander through the House, but that’s Elaine’s domain.  And pappy didn’t raise no fool.  Or, did he?

Write when you see the first wild turkey of the season…

George@ure.net

What Will Drive Markets? Bitcoin Dims

I felt much better after writing up the worthless media reports that pass for news in today’s Coping section.  Now we can get down to cases…

I’m  looking for the market to go down a ways from here.  It would be extremely graceful if we could have a decline this week that carries into next and then turns for a rally into Thanksgiving.

In Elliott terms, that would be a first wave down with the rally to come at the holiday.  Call that a wave 2…

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Then, since there ought to be a wave 3 down, have that come during the first part of December,

A Santa Claus rally would be expected going into Christmas and New Years, and we might think of this as having the potential to be a three-movement counter-trend rally from an ideal early December decline.

Come the New Year, there would be a decline to the movement’s low, but since everyone will be “expecting” it, there would be minimal damage to aware investors.

From – let’s call it a January or February’s low, we would rally like hell until mid May.  Everyone would be thinking by then “Gee the worst is over.”

Except, that when you pull back from the charts a ways, you’d notice that we’d have just completed a massive wave 1 down of a larger degree.

And from that Depression becomes obvious.

This is not financial advice, of course.  But, it is the kind of thing that might happen and would synch up nicely in the charts.

What’s more curious, in the short term is how Bitcoin is seemingly replaying the “After Peak” action that the stock market went through in 1930.

I don’t know how closely you follow Bitcoin, but do pay attention to the recent chart action:

As you can see, the typical price of Bitcoin has gone from $7,725 (my contacts aren’t in yet,  but somewhere in there) down to call it $5,700 over the pseudo-holiday.

In order to get a sense of where Bitcoin COULD and MIGHT go, we built up a simple spreadsheet program that does nothing more than estimate Elliott wave action and gives us trading ideas.  Peoplenomics.com subscribers will find it on the Master Index page up at the top.  Password is “peoplenomics” without the quotes.

The beauty of the brainamp.xls spreadsheet is that it lets a user put in just two numbers – either a high and a low, or a low and a high – and it tells you what MAY be ahead.

So what MIGHT be out there for Bitcoin?  I mean once the current rally ends?

Before we go down there, we’re in what could be a Wave 2 rally.  According to the spreadsheet, we should in the very short-term be on our way back to 6,951,45.

Calling a rally top in stocks – bitcoins – or any other mechanism of delusion is lots of fun.  Sure, there are analogs, too, if you know how to spot them.  Like the wave declines for people in the news.  Like Harvey and Kevin and Roy and…well, Bob Prechter has a wonderful site called www.socionomics.com that’s worth a scan frequently.

So from here, somewhere in the 6,900 and maybe 7,000-something and then down to (rounding off) something like 3,500.  From there?  Well, here’s the brainamp calculations:

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin will be at $2,000 any time soon, but seeing as manias do tend to fall at 2-3 times the speed of their initial rise, we wouldn’t rule out the POSSIBILITY of Wave III and $4,000 Bitcoins by Turkey Day.

Can  this disaster be avoided?  Oh, sure.

All Bitcoin as to do is set a fresh all -time high.  I would never rule that one out.  Wave counts “is what they is” until “they isn’t.”

Still, I’ve used the “brainamp” countless times to make – and keep a buck (or three).  Peoplenomics subscribers have fun with it, too.

Quakes Are Back

After a long period of low-level quaking, suggested by heating and cooling of the Earth’s crust, we may be back into a period of building earthquakes.

Try these on for size:

M 6.5 – 16km SE of Jaco, Costa Rica

And more importantly M 7.3 – 32km S of Halabjah, Iraq.

This latter one is of interest because it’s right on the Iran-Iraq border and near the major oil producing areas.  Will it impact?

Then there are the dead people: More Than 348 Dead, Thousands Injured In Powerful Quake.

Too early to tell on oil pricing, of course, but oil was up a few cents.

The real mover this morning is the stock market which looks to open down about 80 points.

I have my Scrooge McDuck suit at the ready and a rum-soaked crook to smoke.  (Rum-soaked crooks remind me of Congress, too, come to think of it.)

The Weak Ahead

With Donald Trump on the road, there’s very little news, other than who he’s hanging out with.

President Trump Praises Philippines’ Duterte – and Says Nothing About Thousands Killed in Drug Crackdown gives you part of the story.  The “light brush” in the mainstream media, though, is that the drugs provide the majority of the dough needed to bund the Muslim extremist insurgency.

That little asterisk gets overlooked.

I’m not saying the MainStreamMedia is a bunch of lazy sots, but if you flip over to the Library of Congress and read 147-pages of 2002 research in “A GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF NARCOTICS-FUNDED TERRORIST AND OTHER EXTREMIST GROUPS ” you’ll come across some real gems.

“As some insurgent groups have become increasingly involved in the drug trade, their criminal enterprises have assumed greater priority than their own ideological, political, or religious agendas. Examples include the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the southern Philippines and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia…”

Of course, the U.S. Department of Brainwashing – which is what the liberal media tends toward with their victimization model and handwringing – doesn’t bother providing this large context of terrorism because it interferes with their agenda of social just-us.

My deflationist pal Jas Jain refers to born and bred American dopes…and hate to admit it, but it’s a tough point to argue.

Bottom line is terrorism has been funded by drugs for a couple of decades now and the MSM is woefully ignorant, or worse, complicit.  I hope the former but fear the latter.

Back to the Week’s Menu

Tomorrow we get Producer Prices.  Wednesday features the Consumer Price report, retail sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing numbers.  So much for wondering what will be the news items in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics, except them we get into the outlook for gold – and THAT is interesting.

Thursday, a belated Fed industrial production and utilization report lands.  Then Friday shows Housing starts.

We don’t see any major problems for the bulls to “talk-though” any negatives, but we shall see.  For now, we’re just watching the moving averages fall to figure out which one to play on the rebound.

An adaptive approach to (moderately irrational) markets is nice approach which we will elucidate on one of these first days…

Mueller isn’t the Only Leak Problem

As the Daily Beast rolls with Report: NSA Hunts for Moles Amid Crippling Information Leaks.

Too little, too late, but charmed, I’m sure.

The Collapse of Football

After the NFL botched the Anthem mess, we found this headlines laughably absurd: “Sources: Committee to talk Roger Goodell contract; last commish proposal included $49.5M salary, private jet.”

Ever ready to be of service, I am hereby announcing that I’m willing to step in for just $29-million per year and screw up the league and collapse attendance.  Why, I even have a an NFL-knee pad campaign cooked up.

FMTT…America’s mad and except for the head-rush of being in the asylum when the inmates are in charge, reader Bruce down in the highlands of Ecuador is maybe brighter than most of us…

Where’s my stogie?

Coping: With the “News Void”

We have arrived at a day – long-predicted here – where the over-built media doesn’t have enough “real news” to keep the bloated information channels full.

As I looked through the overnight server runs it was, more or less, the same news I was looking at last Thursday before this pitiful “pseudo-holiday” got underway.

You want some examples?  Sure…

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We have plenty of ’em:

CNN put this out on their RSS feed: Do these photos make you queasy?  Like we’d care?

World stocks lower on U.S. tax reform uncertainty, May’s woes rattle sterling seems more useful.  But, since our trading in markets is more based on technical considerations (and we’ve known since Friday downside follow-through was likely because the market closed under the 9-day moving average) that a further pullback was likely this week.  This kind of sweeping generalization doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the media.

The rest all seems like “political fill” – except for the 7.2 quake, but that was off in the Middle East.

Fox sums up the obvious in How Hillary Clinton’s 2020 hopes were ruined by Donna Brazile, but who’d vote Hil after she rigged Bernie Sanders out of a even run?

While Donald Trump has been president (or president-elect) for a year, we see how the lazy slob mob (congress) still can’t legislate it’s way out of a paper bag. Confirmation slows for nominee to serve as top CIA watchdog.  How could it slow from here?  The mind reels.  Meantime, leftover Obama embeds are ruling the roost…

We have no idea if there is  substance to Roy Moore Says the Underage Sex Allegations Are ‘Fake News’ and He’ll File a Lawsuit in Response. But, when comes down to it, there was hardly any doubt that he’d deny unto death about this stuff.

Where there’s a REAL story – and this was picked up off Twitter by reader Ray (see our comments section) was the claim that a certain large Washington newspaper was holding out money to people from Roy Moore’s past in order to goad them into coming forward.

There’s a lot of background on how people’s memories change over time – and especially if there is money on the table. m Where are those stories?  Controlled by the left-leaning libs, o’course.

The national media, operating more like your local propaganda ministry, doesn’t want to roll up its sleeves and get into the claims of “witnesses” against Moore being “paid” to come forward.  Seems to me that would be news, though.

It has cast a cloud over both Moore and now the media reporting the story.  More clouds than usual?  Nope…just a lack of the U.S. having a “media of record” because all the old go-to’s have either been compromised by obvious bias in reporting, or their are so “under the thumb” of The Network when comes to story coverage.  MSM media is a national joke.

Ditto the Clinton-sponsored “Russian Collusion story” with the Mueller fishing expedition.  There’s continuous hand-wringing on both sides of the aisle with stories like The Trump Collusion Case Is Not Getting the Clinton Emails Treatment being representative of the middle-right view.  The left cheers a possible Flynn indictment.

Nothing new there – and that’s my point.

Once again, the media is missing the REAL story.  And that is?  The continuous Mueller leaks.

When I see stories about how “Mueller Has Enough Evidence to Bring Charges in Flynn Investigation” we ask “Who are these sources and, if leaking secret proceedings, why aren’t they in jail?

Still, none of this, nor the reports on the tax “reform” swindle  is  anything “new.”  It has not only been on the table since last week, it has been on the table for almost a year on some of the stories on the Russia-Trump claims, for example. I heard “tax cut” during the campaign, I seem to recall.

As I pointed out for Peoplenomics subscribers, there’s something else going on – and it’s HUGE so of course no one wants to hear of it:

I demonstrated a statistical correlation between the upturn in mass shooting cases since 2004 with the rise of social media.

THAT is a MONSTER story.  It gets to the heart of why Americans are mostly born and bred dopes.

Yet it’s not in the psych journals, and since no one else is looking for data correlations, bupkis is said of it.

Which is exactly – and precisely – the problem with modern media, or what passes for it.

There really is “news” to be had.

But the media doesn’t want to ask hard questions that would break the illusions in the  Roy Moore, Kevin Spacey, Harvey Weinstein or any other claimants about what “witnesses” have been promised in the way of payments, protection, and future book deals.

Yet to me, that’s the ONLY story.

Another is the Mueller leaks – FBI should have a task force all over that one, not to mention the leakers who torpedoed the first half-year of Trump in office with what turns out to be non-stories in retrospect.

Then there is the whole reprehensible collection of crooks called Congress who are 0playing us for the Robin Hood Reverse:  stealing from the Middle Class to fund the Rich.  That ought to be the lead story every day. Hound ’em out of office and if democrats win…well guess what?  Honesty is better than crookery and lies.

Unable to improve on Obamacare, they whole lot of ’em ought to step down or be removed at the earlier possible election.

If they can’t do as promised, they should ALL  be subject to recall elections based on false and misleading representations.

THAT would be news.

But, of course, since The Network and it’s muscle division of the mob have this whole thing dialed in as a Machiavellian game show, it’s never going to happen.

As you head back to work this morning, remember that reading media reports of Where we are going as a country is very similar to Driving with the rearview mirror.

When it’s a STORY it’s already HISTORY.

There’s only one thing that matters if you are trading markets, or living a high-performance lifestyle:  Getting (and incorporating) news BEFORE it happens.

If you’re looking at the Moore story, tax “reform,” Mueller leaks…screw your head around to forward and start looking at hints about what next moves – or better yet three moves ahead – looks like.

There’s a reason playing chess is important for young people:  It teaches the art of seeing through the short-term ploys and seeing where the flow of the game is leading.

And American media lacks chess players…  The some old game’s in play again this week.  And We the People are losing.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

D153: The "Crazy Beam" Caper

Economics is often best-understood through the use of a “thought-model.”  Around here, when enough pieces of the Big Picture aren’t fitting well, we fall back to a hypothetical “super agency” that is in charge of delivering an agreed-upon future to those of us who are blissfully ignorant of the game’s highest levels.

With this in mind, we launch into a discussion of “The Crazy Beam.” And, as you’ll see as our “fictionalized” story unfolds, there is a case for 18 (or more)  mass shooting events in the US in 2018.

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Another One Bites the Dust

I was telling Peoplenomics subscribers recently in our crooks of Hollywood story, how I was predicting another one – maybe two – Big Name sacrifices would be offered up as The Network continues it’s house-cleaning.

The real rulers (the ones with the muscle) have been messaging when the house-cleaning is sufficient.  Which, as we wildly speculated, was why the L.V. shooting – and there went Harvey and Kevin.

Then came the Texas shooting and within days?  There goes Roy Moore.  Notice how the Establishment minions are trying to make the Roy Moore deal a Trump-bash?  The White House Addresses Roy Moore Sexual Misconduct Allegations.  Your itsy-bitsy pea-brain will recall “White House” and “sexual misconduct” as connected now.  You’re such a hopeless ape.  Wired for control….and this is how Ure played.

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And, as to our prediction of at least two more big-name stars being removed from play (like pawns in chess) we now read how?  Louis CK Is Accused of Sexual Misconduct by 5 Women.

Bingo!

Harvey and Kevin after 58-dead, Louis and Roy gone after 26 at the church…utterly a coincidence.  Yeah, sure, you betcha.

Here’s a bonus bounce offering: Mad Men Creator Matthew Weiner Accused of Sexual Harassment by Former Writer.

And now that we’ve apparently had enough high profile “messaging” between the factions of The Network that really control the world (drugs and crime by the mob faction, power of appointment by The Network-Establishment faction, after Quigley in Tragedy and Hope), we can now drift back to normal – and except for a few highly-aware people (including you now) no one will be the wiser.

Fake news?  Not to the survivors of the messaging.  But, there’s always “error correction overhead” when signals like this are passed in public view.

As to the mechanics of how it’s actually done?

Peoplenomics tomorrow offers some further intelligent speculation within the context of our hypothetical Directorate 153 framework.  It’s an episode called “The Crazy Beam…

Has Bitcoin Run Out of “Greater Fools?”

The headline says it all: Bitcoin slides by over $1000 in less than 48 hours/.

They were running $6,800 and change earlier.  The decline should be slow at first, but Elliott waves in social behavior are just as unforgiving as in other ways.

As we have had a blow-off peak in funny-digis and stocks at roughly the same time, we think the social mood will now crash.  The glass will now swing from half full to half empty.

Note the date when it began: About a week back.

And yeah, the short position is looking pretty good in here, now.

Troubles of Markets

When the Dow was down (rather remarkably) Thursday, I tried to check into my trading account.  With my Scrooge McDuck suit on, I like to smoke a cigar (if that label can be applied to a rum-soaked crook) and laugh about finally having my short position make sense.

But I couldn’t do it:  Because a big online trading outfit was telling me…

I wasn’t the only one to notice.  Forbes caught it, too: E-Trade is Down and Day Traders Are Freaking Out.   By the time the momentary panic passed and the money was off my table, the system came back up.  Ure was not pleased.  Still, it was a reminder why EMP is such a danger.  What would your life be like if your accounts all stopped working?  Grim, huh?

I don’t know why, but being locked out of a trade doesn’t sit well with me  for another reason:  A few hours later it’s announced that “ETRADE Capital Management LLC Buys iShares MBS ETF, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, iShares Core S&P Small-Cap, Sells AbbVie Inc, E.I. du Pont de Nemours, The Kraft Heinz Co…”

Yeah, I just know it’s all a coincidence, but hmmm…vehwee intahwesting…

The rich get richer while the little people get locked out?

Fed Dials Back Markets

Oh, you didn’t get the memo?  See the latest Federal Reserve H.6 money stocks data.

Looks to me like the Fed might be a bit less loose, maybe trying to ease rates up a bit to justify a tiny hike in December, but no bets in place yet.

Meantime, with a serious lack of “real” news (see Coping) the market is likely to follow through on the downside.
Futures show the Dow down 45 at the open, but touching down 60 in the day seems likely.

The real question is whether the selling will carry into next week – and we will see that (possibly) in how the market closes the week relative to last week and relative to our 9-day projected moving average (9-pma)…

Headlines To Ponder

China widens foreign access to its giant financial sector. A different bubble to come?

Spain’s doing the EU remix of Franco: Catalonia’s Top Lawmaker Has Been Jailed by a Spanish Judge.

US Department of Useless

Trump’s Asian menu: What he ate and what it meant. We can’t make this up.

Trump’s lunch starts hamburger craze.  We expect the breaking news on Trumps preference in toilet paper any minute now.

Colbert addresses Louis C.K.’s canceled appearance (does anyone but Colbert give a sh*t?  It ain’t news – it’s effing hype…GTFU people)

And the Google doodle is NEWS? A New Google Doodle Celebrates the Life of Lebanese Singer Sabah…spare me!  Beam me off this rock!

Pope John Paul I Is Closer to Sainthood after a New Book Debunks Conspiracy Theories About His Death.

New ‘Star Wars’ trilogy raises hopes after Disney results miss target… How many times have I screamed this:  STOCKS are based on STORIES in a BLOW-OFF MARKET PEAK.

OK, since there is little in the way of real news, let’s reconvene Monday morning and see if the world comes out of rehab this weekend.

Don’t hold your breath…

Coping: America’s Crooked “Holiday Gap”

I love veterans (and thank you for your service).  But I hate the day in one way because it symbolizes two of the Great Problems in America that we could fix, if we had any glue left to hold us together as a country.

The first problem is the “holiday gap.”

If you’re in the private sector, you likely get a whopping half dozens days per year off.  More than that (and IF that) you get docked  Ready to be ticked-off?  Let me show you how “tough” federal workers have it.  (Might want to toke up, put down the coffee and take a deep breath first.  Have a baby aspirin ready, and 9-1-1 on the auto-dialer, too…)

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Here’s the fed’s  Office of Management and Budget list:

All of which means what?  Come on – you can count, right?  10 fully paid holidays.    How many outfits in the private sector do that?

UPS and FedEx will still work – and sure, the stock market will be open.  No rest for the wicked, there.  You won’t get SATURDAY mail because the Post Office pretends tomorrow is Veteran’s Day.  But bills will show up today – go figure.

My question is this:  What the floody-buck is the point of a freaking holiday if only half the country gets the day off?  Teachers and bureaucrats, brothers and sisters.

It reveals quite clearly who the tops and who the bottoms are.

I’m an egalitarian kinda guy.  I think all souls weigh the same.  So regardless of how many can dance on the head of a pin, how about a little equality on holidays?

When the government workers get a paid play day – like today – and us working stiff have to turn-out a day’s worth – it sends the tax-paying, Bent Over Workers read it as “We don’t have to work as hard as you civvies because we’re special.

Time to call bullshite.

Did I mention I’m starting the “Dog Party?”  BOW-WOW  – Bent Over Workers – Work On Winning…equality.

While I’m off ranting in the wind, let’s talk about government pensions, too, …

This is because in the coming economic collapse in ‘Merica, pensions will be failing right and left.

Care to guess who’s going to be threaded onto the hook to make good on excessive comp promises?

Ewe, my little sheep, ewe.

Which means us working stiffs (If you have to work today, Ure one of them)…are a special class of slave called wage slaves.

The lie often told is that we don’t have slavery in America, but when I look at who is working today – and who’s got a paid play-day…seems the stories fall apart.

We all (*us workers working today) are working for dah Man.

And his representatives have first names like GS-13, and so forth.

You won’t like this – ‘specially if you’ve been at the government trough – but out here in the cheap seat, pensions are obviously going to blow up and federal, state, and local workers better get effing used to the idea that at some point, We the Working People will be tapped out.  When that happens, we aren’t going to starve so GS-somethings along with State somethings and County somethings can have a fatter retirement than social security.

Ain’t gonna happen.

Think of retirement plans like lifeboats on a cruise ship.  The people in the suites get into the same lifeboats with the people with the balcony rooms, and in there are the “ocean view” rooms, and even the inside rooms from down in steerage.

Amazingly, when comes to retirement systems, the notion of equal is given a smoke and stood up against the wall.

Let’s go back to an old NY Post opinion piece from 2010 where this notion of the rich government retirees popped up.

Here’s a quote that’ll make you puke – especially if you’re not employed in  a  state or local government gig in New York.

“According to the Census Bureau, the average New York retiree receiving a corporate or union pension — a retiree from the private sector — was receiving an annual benefit of $13,100 in 2009. For state and local government retirees, that figure was more than twice as high: $27,600. And that average figure includes retirees who were part-time workers or only spent part of their careers in government; full-career retirees often do far better.”

My buddy Gaye (*of www.StrategicLivingBlog.com) and I commiserate about this every so often.  She started and sold several highly successful companies, and my corporate career was in the $100K and up range (in constant 2000 dollars).

Take 2001, for example:  Elaine and I had a pretty good year.  She didn’t work and I was making $146K (which is about $200K in today money) and living on our boat – so like no bills but moorage – and surprise! Life was a party.  Still, we paid like crazy into Social Security.  And a big wheel barrow of income tax.  No grudges, though.

My “return on investment”  (which would be higher if self-managed and not made at gunpoint) results in $2,350 per month of Social Security.

As I asked Gaye: “Why we didn’t both take our skillsets into government service, because either one of us would be shoo-in’s for GS-14 and higher?”

What do you think GS-14 is?  Step 10 is about $114.5K this year.

NOW, suppose I had joined government service in 1975 – and taken retirement after 40 years of service.  And let’s say my “High 3” average for Federal retirement calculations was $114K.    Just to see who got the “special” lifeboat.

We take the $114K times 1.1% which ain’t much: $1,254 per year.  But now multiply THAT times my 40 years of “service” and bingo: my “retirement” pencils out at $50,160 per year or $4,180 per month.

Compare this with the Social Security bennies for non-“made” people: $2350 per month or $28,200 per year.

Let’s hold up two George’s here:

George #1 worked his ass off on the bleeding edge of technology, launched new companies, made others rich, helped develop key intellectual property (got patents for his work) and worked three jobs in order to never miss a support payment back when that ship went down.  And still he scrimped enough to fly and sail and own a Porsche, or three in the process.  His SS?  $2,350 a month.

George #2 has turned into a career bureaucrat.

In 40 years, he actually worked half a year less.  Four more holidays than the sucker who actually paid taxes – and wasn’t smart enough to get on the receiving end of taxes.  4-holidays (like today’s joke) times 40 years is 160 work days.  Toss in the weekends and I can make a pretty good case George #2 worked 224 fewer days.

And vacations?  Paid conferences and training?  Nope, that dumb-sh*t George 1 paid all his own way…

George #2 would have spent his 8-5 time writing press releases for a living and today would reap about $4,180 per month.  Unlike stupid George #1, #2 never had to worry about his job.  Government doesn’t fire people.

George #1, sucker that he was, bounced up the food chain.  Never stayed anywhere to get the full retirement deal at 10 years, or whatever.

See if you can figure out – no fair asking for help, now – who’s gotten the better deal?  George #1 or George #2?

So when pension programs of government workers begin to blow up, you’ll have to pardon me.  George #1 is telling you in advance “It ain’t me babe…”

I think all pensions ought to be tossed into the same SINGLE federal hopper – one for all and all for one kind of thing – instead of this bullshit about how “we’re special.”

Exceptional effort?  Pay ’em more, sure.  Cops, firemen, air traffic, and medical types – but the criteria is shift work because the data says that leads to higher cancer rates.  You following, here?

Most days I’m open to a different point of view.  But since government workers (except line services) get a slacker day, Ure is pissed.  They aren’t (generally) going to honor vets – they’re taking a play day.  Check your local golf course if the weather is warm enough.

And if you’re in the private sector – having the lifeblood sucked out of your hard work with what’s coming up on a 40 percent real tax rate with the bonus continuous debasement of the currency option – you oughta be as pissed, too.

Or, you’re just stupid.

I hope not, but  the crazy dream that democrats ought to rejoice at is the notion of a single national retirement plan.  (They won’t – they’re too special, too…)

Since we all get  the same average time on earth, the least government could do – if it really stood for the notion of  equality they peddle – is make sure all retirees are equal.

But as evidenced by closed government offices today – We the People aren’t served by government any more.

We serve them.

And don’t you forget it.

Don’t even start me on their better-than-Medicare health plan…but it’s another reason the deep state is loyal – Hell, they can’t afford to be otherwise…  More FedGov employee largess?

Part D: There is a monthly premium for Part D coverage. Most Federal employees do not need to enroll in the Medicare drug program, since all Federal Employees Health Benefits Program plans will have prescription drug benefits that are at least equal to the standard Medicare prescription drug coverage.”

Right off the OPM website, for crying out loud.

WTF?  We should have all work for government!  See how well it worked out for the Soviet Union?  Hello?

Of course, if you are or were one, you might just abbreviate this to Ure’s an idiot.  Besides, there was only so much room at the trough…and Ure ain’t special.

Write when your blood pressure drops,

George@ure.net

Taxes @ Heartbreak Hotel, Markets to Follow

This ain’t our usual serving of high-brow economics this morning.  Naw…this epistle is dirt simple.

When taxes go down, markets go up.  The rational is simple:  People will have more to spend, corporations will pay lower taxes, and there will be cries of joy and spending in the streets.  The roar of the clicks, the churning of debt.  And we will all be saved by the rising inflation that floats all banks.

Until, of course, people figure out all the tax-talk is bullshite and there’s a flip side to such manic behavior that’s beyond the ken or ordinary mortals.  And far past being treatable with lithium carbonate…

(Continues below)

 

Like a bad hangover today, we notice the close proximity of two facts.

The first is that it looks like the republican/RINO tax-fraud (they call ’em ‘breaks’ because it will move you closer to broke in the longer-term) is headed for the rocks.

As the “tax break” turns into another republican lie, we see how the “Senate Republican tax plan may eliminate property tax deductions and delay corporate cut.”

Which may kill the charade completely as Mulvaney: WH won’t sign onto a bill that raises middle-class taxes/

Along with some of the little gotcha’s the Fools on the Hill are pimping.  Like the New Poll Shows Voters Overwhelmingly Reject New Tax Hike on Plane Tickets.  Duh…  we want free lunches, dammit!

Of course, you’re not supposed to notice the correlation, because there will always be market stories like Stock futures lower after Wall Street’s record run to hide the bitter truth.

An hour before the open, Dow futures were down more than 100 points and Ure’s faith in his projected moving averages is about to avenge the deaths of weaker bears…  I’m also organizing a memorial for the families of the “buy the dips” crowd, if you’re interested.

The data, however, is unequivocal:  Stocks like a good storyno, LOVE a good story and the facts be damned.  We see examples of this behind most shares traded, and the FANG stocks are not immune.  So let’s zoom-in on the economics behind one of today’s tulips – one that makes electric cars..

“Electric cars will save the world!  Our stock is going to the Moon!” cries a promoter.  Who we note, then makes plans to follow.

But as someone who’s been around electric cars, in fact since the HEV Challenge days (pre-2000), I’m sadly all too aware of the problems that electric cars pose.  Most people aren’t, so let me huff the whiteboard marker here and lay it out…

(whew!!!)

The first problem is with battery chemistry:  There’s an ugly number called the “acceptance rate of finishing charge.”  It says, in so many words, that the final 15% of charging an all-electric will take about 2-hours.  In most chemistries, when comes to capacity, if you don’t use it, you lose it.

The other limitation is on initial charging where the limit is charger capacity.

All of which works,  but only provided you have time, a big charging source, and all goes well.  By well, I mean the charging is temperature-compensated, since the faster you jam electrons back into a battery, the more heat you get.

But now, you see, up goes the price of the control electronics.  And as the battery chemistry becomes more advanced so do the charge control requirements.

The main myth of electrics is how they will somehow give the world a “free lunch” we all socially (just us) deserve.

Ain’t there, bubba.

The facts are that by transferring out of petrochemical-based travel, we load down the grid.  And now, with “climate change” there are only so many rivers that can be dammed and only so much power coming from nuke plants.  Not to mention that with the Obama damnation of the coal industry, cleaner-burning coal plants disappeared from the energy mix plans….

I know this all sounds sour, but bear with me because the “average person” hasn’t figured it out – yet.

Let’s suppose that the average electric needs about 50 continuous horsepower for operation.  Sure, it will vary.

One horsepower is 745 watts, but the way energy efficiency works (through the charger and discounting for electrochemical inefficiency) our morning calculation suggests ABOUT one kilowatt-hour of grid power for each horsepower, or in this case let’s call it 50-kilowatt hours of energy for each hour of EV driving.

Sure, that sounds high.  But it’s not.  Turn on the air conditioning, crank the tunes, turn on headlights, heated seats…wipers?  Oh, that estimate sure looks more realistic, doesn’t it?  Worse:  That’s when the e-car is sitting at a long light.  Now do it in winter with high heat….

The next jolly is to pencil in energy costs and you’ll find,,, let’s call it 18-cents per kilowatt-hour for power.  The math?  One hour of electric vehicle might cost $9 per hour of grid power.

Cheaper power?  (You planning to build more nuke plants to power e-cars, BTW?  What, do you hate mom, apple pie, and the environment?  What kind of turd are you?)  Let’s say you find 9-cent per KWhr of grid.

Fine.  Now your energy cost is down to just $4.50 – or about 2-gallons of gas per hour equivalent cost.  Ure a freaking genius if you can sell this.  But there it is…

Now toss into that a cap(italization) cost three times what a small petro-powered car costs, and then add in millions in tax breaks to get us even MORE dependent on the still EMP-exposed grid…and Ure’s truly can’t figure a happy ending for the fairytale.

Especially when us Great Unwashed are put on the hook to subsidize this madness via tax reductions for the “special” folks.  Which is why the EV tax breaks may go down the (crowded) road.

But enough of logic.  There’s no place in today’s world for hard-headed, equal-costed, economic comparisons.  The Herd is the Word or be the Turd and get the Slurred.  Yep, social lynch mobs run things now.  Into the ground, as mobs always do…

For now, the tax breaks are in a heap of doo-doo and as their future dims, like the all-electric car wet dream and communal ownership of self-driving fleets, we will keep our eye on the excesses of markets and wait for the financial hangover of such delusion to come.

Could be a while, though, since the blow-off in Tulipmania lasted half a dozen years.  And the Crypto-currency farce?  Despite stories about people missing thousands from hardware problems, the herd keeps crowding into that slaughterhouse, too.

It’s graceful in a way.  A kind of trans-cultural Divine Madness.

Except when it ends, of course.  And by then, only cash-hoarding few will be able to buy when the blood is running in the streets.

In the meantime, want to buy the electric car franchise for Jupiter?  Make you a hell of a deal on it…

Note to Peoplenomics Subscribers

In a recent report, where we were discussing the “scrubbing” of persons and how we looked for the film “All the Money in the World” not to be released, we see another prediction coming to pass.

The film will be reshot without Kevin Spacey in it.  But, more to the points, as long as it’s going in for reshoot and re-edit, we look for aspects of the “quiet muscle” division of the Italian mob (the Ndrangheta) to be scrubbed as well.

This as The Network and their ‘muscle division’ continue to purge Hollywood of reality leaks.

So, if you’re keeping track, that’s one RFO Peoplenomics call.  Now, let’s wait and see how the paradigm-busting/fairytale wrecking Weinstein produced series Waco is scuttled as the illusion-keepers continue their house-cleaning.  You’ve been following, we hope, how Harvey’s being dropped as an EP.

I assume everyone reading this site has seen the reports of the government’s use of tracer rounds at Waco which likely caused the fire?  All hushed, of course…gotta keep that illusion going.

Pain Field?

Boeing signs deal to sell 300 planes worth $37 billion to China.  We don’t expect that will bolster too much at the company’s Everett/Paine Field plant.  Seems Boeing and other manufacturers are moving lots of assembly and sub work to Asia.

Passing:  Of Another Bond Girl

Karin Dor who starred in “You only Live Twice” has left us.  Age 79.

Not that she was a super-star.  But, it’s another grim reminder how much has been lost to history.

Once upon a time, kiddies, men had testosterone coursing through their veins. It was OK, too…even saved the Empire a few times.   Women were allowed to be “hot” (they had a choice, now choice off the table thanks to social mobs). And it wasn’t threatening to ask a woman out twice.  It was the dance of life.

For the world of daring-do men, capable attractive women, and obvious arch-villains, we have moved on, arriving on a planet where we scorn vive la difference and pay doctors to hack factory-installed plumbing.  YABM (yet another business model).

On this rock, rhe obvious arch-villains now run think-tanks and D.C. lobbying firms, safe from official sanction.

In retrospect, the Bond films were a warning.  SMERSH has indeed put something in our water supplies.  And it’s taking us down in a most novel way.