Fed Moderates, Bitcoin Brightens, Markets Ponder

We need to go over three charts this morning because somewhere in them, there’s a message, but damned if I can figure out what it is just yet.

The three charts are the M2-Velocity of Money.  This one says, in so many words, how often money is “turned over” during the year.  The second chart updates our comments of Thursday because it now looks like (at a minimum) Bitcoin is setting a new higher-high and that brings either another stunning up-move, or at a minimum a huge head-and shoulders peak.

The third chart is where the stock market sits.  While yesterday was a “smoker” of a rally (and a finely sprung bear trap) we note the Fed has backed off the manic creation of money – and that argues that they will try to time (arb’ing up) the rates in January (*or so) when the possibility of some tax changes comings along.  That’s something of a long-shot, given what the Senate is looking likes – and that get’s us into a discussion of how both political parties turn out to have their own skeletons in the closet – some of which will talk – and some will talk for money.  Sleeves rolled up?

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So here are the charts and discussion starting with Velocity:

The Velocity of Money at M2 essentially explains how much money is in “real circulation” in America.  In  other words, you can print money all day long and if the money isn’t turning over – and in the process chasing goods and service – then you will NOT have inflation.

We know from looking at the latest Fed H.6 money stocks report that the Fed has dialed back a bit at M1 in the latest reporting period.  So that may prevent the stock market from getting too manic in here.  Also, when the Fed eases a bit at the printing press, it will result in a slow increase in the “cost of money” – which is why interest rates in here should firm and move a bit higher.

In the meantime, the Fed is trying to sell off sacks of troubled assets it bought in the wake of the Housing disaster – and when these are sold-back to investors, then the Fed will be ready for another crisis.

We don’t honestly anticipate the Big One (depression) to really get organized until mid next year.  We note the departure of three top Fed officials will be done by then, and a new round of Fed management will have been installed.  That will give the current round time to get to the rocking chairs before “the music stops.”

When it does, there comes to be a “perfect storm” of Wave 5 – the all-time final blow-off setting up.  It would come in the fall of 2018 when the oil glut is gone and we move into that horrible period of more demand than available production.  At that point, auto and travel in general/use will collapse.  Might be a fine time to short the hotel stocks and such.

On the other hand, since oil is out of favor right now, putting a few dollars into oil companies that have the largest proven reserves might be an interesting strategy – but more on that for Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  This is the “cheap seat in the bleachers” version, lol.

Next chart?

Driver?  See: Fork talk lifts bitcoin to all-time high near $8,000

In yesterday’s report, we were speculating on how low Bitcoin could go IF there was no quick, sustained up-move.  Specifically, what I said was:

The good news is there is still a count where what I have labeled wave 1 up on the left there doesn’t count and we need to look as a different count starting with the bottom of wave 2.  This underscores one of the weaknesses of Elliott in irregular markets.

So, this morning for your dining and dancing pleasure, we have the Bitcoin chart updated to show the break *(at least momentarily) to higher prices.

I also included the high and low lines for Wave 1 up, applied them so you can see how Wave 3 met the Elliott test of “larger than 1” and then, from the bottom (for now) of 4, we offer than since under Elliott, wave 5 must be at least as large as 1, then we can begin to sniff around the $9,500 Bitcoin dollar spread.

I know that’s going to make coiners deliriously happy…

Then we’re on to stocks.  Again, this is one of the charts updated for Peoiplenomics.com subscribers that we usually don’t share with the bleacher seats, but we note that the manic (bear-killer) rally of Thursday did NOT put a new all-time high into our Aggregate Index approach to markets.

What it did do, however, was generate a close above the red line, which is a 9- moving average.  We will have this all updated tomorrow on the subscriber side because it’s axiomatic in our work that it’s pretty damn tough to make a real “call” on market trends until the Hot Money has called it quits for the week and has their money back safely in banks and longer-term positions for the weekend.   

Then, the silliness will get underway again next week.  But for next week, we actually EXPECT the market could move higher because that’s what holidays tend to bring:  rallies in stocks.

For today, World stocks claw back losses but set for second weekly fall.

Turkey Day rallies are not usually as robust as the Santa Claus rallies that come next month.  One reason those tend to really “get legs” is that a lot of upper echelon Wall Streeters have their bonuses based on December levels and performances for the year.  The higher the better.

Expect a possible adjustment in late winter as prices could go down (thinking in terms of a macro-trend wave 4 down) to set up the all time high which would be a monster wave 5 which would bring the huge rally in oil, and gold, and another real estate bubble kind of top.

For now, the country has a shorter term set of problems:  The price of real estate in some of the especially bubbly markets seems to be softening a bit.  Elaine and I have been watching Seattle and Phoenix closely.  And then there’s the problem of consumer super-saturation.  That’s the “what’s left to buy that we actually need that’s out there?

Answer all of these correctly, figure how to lever them all to the max and good luck.

Our stated goal in life has been, and continues to be, to invest with the idea of better inflation by a fair bit and we continue to meet that objective.  Overly cautious at times, no doubt.

But that’s why young people can “take a flyer” on something like Bitcoins – because if they drop to nearly zero it doesn’t matter if you still have 30-years of work life ahead to recoup the loss and go on to more rational investments.  But the world is changing and more on that for subscribers tomorrow…

Sexatics

Let me see if I have this right:  If a republican – like Roy Moore – is taken out of a race because of allegations of chasing after under4-aged girls, how come the Washington Post is rolling with a liberal apologist piece when democrat Al Franken is the poser in the photogs?

Yet there it is for you, another case of liberals defending their own in “I’m a feminist. I study rape culture. And I don’t want Al Franken to resign.”

I’m a normal senior male, I study liberal issue-manipulation, and I DO want Franken to resign.

The democrats have a “double-standard” take-out window.  Which is why Uranium One is still not being probed.  Teflon spray, perhaps?

Or not as “Bill Clinton Should Have Resigned After Monica Lewinsky Affair, Democratic Senator Says.”  Amen.

Giving Head?

No, not a sex story.  Instead this is about how the “World’s first human head transplant successfully carried out.”

(You didn’t really think we would blow our PG-rating, did you?)

Passings

Sicilian Mob Boss Salvatore ‘Toto’ Riina Has Died While Serving 26 Life Sentences.

“Totò is another nickname for “Salvatore”), was an Italian mobster and the chief of the Sicilian Mafia, known for a ruthless murder campaign that reached a peak in the early ’90s, when the deaths of Antimafia Commission prosecutors Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino caused widespread public revulsion and led to a major crackdown by the authorities. He was also known by the nicknames la belva (“the beast”) and il capo dei capi (Sicilian: ‘u capu di ‘i capi, “the boss of the bosses”),” says Wikipedia.

The Sicilian mob also has its own 10 Commandments:

  1. No one can present himself directly to another of our friends. There must be a third person to do it.
  2. Never look at the wives of friends.
  3. Never be seen with cops.
  4. Don’t go to pubs and clubs.
  5. Always being available for Cosa Nostra is a duty – even if your wife is about to give birth.
  6. Appointments must absolutely be respected. (probably refers to formal rank and authority.)[134]
  7. Wives must be treated with respect.
  8. When asked for any information, the answer must be the truth.
  9. Money cannot be appropriated if it belongs to others or to other families
  10. People who can’t be part of Cosa Nostra: anyone who has a close relative in the police, anyone with a two-timing relative in the family, anyone who behaves badly and doesn’t hold to moral values.

Just so’a you know.

The passing of Toto, however, doesn’t impact the operations of other Italian mobs and the Ndragnheta in  particular:

The ‘Ndràngheta (Italian pronunciation: [(n)?dra??eta])[2] is an organized crime group centered in Calabria, Italy. Despite not being as famous abroad as the Sicilian Mafia, and having been considered more rural than the Neapolitan Camorra and the Apulian Sacra Corona Unita, the ‘Ndrangheta became the most powerful crime syndicate in Italy in the late 1990s and early 2000s. While commonly tied together with the Sicilian Mafia, the ‘Ndrangheta operates independently from them, though there is contact between the two, due to the geographical proximity and shared culture and language between Calabria and Sicily. A US diplomat estimated that the organization’s narcotics trafficking, extortion and money laundering activities accounted for at least 3% of Italy’s GDP in 2010.[3] Since the 1950s, the organization has spread towards Northern Italy and worldwide. According to a 2013 “Threat Assessment on Italian Organised Crime” of Europol, the ‘Ndrangheta is among the richest and most powerful organised crime groups at a global level.[4]

Now you understand a bit more about how The Network operates…

Las Vegas Leftovers…

Speaking of conspiracies and such…

While the change in command of Saudi Arabia has been making headlines, watch the video over here on YouTube because it lays out how the LV Shooting may have been fallout from a failed attempt to kill the incoming crown prince of Saudi Arabia.

Videos like this one, imply that the alleged shooter, may have been working for the US FedGov.

Which, brings into focus the idea that some of the “soon to be removed” princes at the time may have gotten wind of the pending changes in Saudi and planned the “hit” in LV.

When that went south, a mass shooting ensued to “cover up” the failed attempt on the crown prince.

It makes for “who done it?” conversation at the Thanksgiving table.  Gone are the days about talking about uncle Herman, eh?

To rejoin the games in play, click Saudi offer in corruption crackdown: ‘cough up the cash and go home’ and then Saudi Arabia Faces Pressure To End Blockade As Crisis Worsens In Yemen.

Just Out: Housing Starts:

Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,290,000. This is 13.7 percent (±10.5 percent) above the revised September estimate of 1,135,000, but is 2.9 percent (±10.1 percent)* below the October 2016 rate of 1,328,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 877,000; this is 5.3 percent (±12.1 percent)* above the revised September figure of 833,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 393,000.

Dow futures down about 40 – so we may end the week right around the 9=day moving average.  More tomorrow for Peoplenomics subscribers…and let’s all meet up here Monday, shall we?

Coping: With the Return of REAL Typewriters

I mentioned a while back that I was planning to pick up an IBM Selectric II because to my way of thinking they were the absolute best keyboard ever made.  That is, if you don’t count that seven-pound marvelous mechanical keyboard that shipped with the original IBM-PC’s and which I used at a number of job sites in Ure’s Halt & Catch Fire-era.

Lots of UrbanSurvival readers write.  And not useless social jots.  Since A.G. Kimbrough wanders by often-enough I’ve actually focused on reducing typos.  And then there are colleague – like G.A. Stewart, probably the best Nostradamus writer on the planet, presently. Plus, I hold Chris Tyreman of The Chronicle Project in very high regard as well.  Not just as a reader, but as a graphic artist to boot.  And let me not overlook Lt. Col. (Retd.) Chris McCleary who picked up the National Dream Center project I launched back in 2008 and continues producing fine reports on what dreams foretell.  It’s an honor to be in such esteemed writing company.

Thing is, we all bash words for money (or love of research and intellectual jollies) and that requires the RIGHT machine.  Like selecting a spouse, car, or right sailboat, there are classics.  And that gets us to an interview with Daniel Marleau, another professional wordsmith, who has a dandy site The Typewriter Review which you can find over here…

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While my own preferences run to the Selectric I or correcting Selectric II, Dan’s focus is on the REAL machines.  Ones with no plug.  The manual machines that birthed everything from Hemmingway to…well, you name it.  Most great books haven’t come off keyboards, at least until lately.  Hemmingway wrote standing up, writer Coy up the street reminds us.  First of the Stand-Up-Desk crowd?

Since Urban is about making money and prepping (in other words, buy a future instead of social status crap) I though it’d be interesting to pop some questions over to Dan and see how a real typewriter aficionado looks at that’s out there…

I began my chat with Dan of Typewriter Review with the obvious: Are old geezers like me (*and maybe you) the only ones interesting in getting back to our typing roots?

Seems like the crafting crowd has gotten into typewriters for crafty projects. I’ve seen a new typewriter for sale at Michael’s craft store. I played around with it. As expected — unless you’re tapping out a few greeting cards, then avoid.? Plus, I’m not much of an electric guy, as you can tell. Though I’d love to give the vaunted IBM Selectric a spin! It’s an ICON! My dad’s secretary was a whiz on that thing. 

I could regale you with tales of the quarter-million newscasts I cranked out of a Selectric during my broadcast days.  The sound of the old Model 19 teletype, precut half-sheets of news print for stories…cigs going up in smoke in the ashtray… real audio tape cassettes of news-makers recorded on an early vintage Sony TV-110 – yeah, that was journalism at it’s finest.

Back to point, I asked Dan, “If you were a prepper – and wanted to be able to type when the net goes down (and presumably the power) what would you recommend? Your top 10 list?”

A proper prepper packs a pallet of pencils! I wouldn’t want to be making undue noises that’d call attention to my stash. ?Unless you’re living in an underground bunker, then I’d recommend at least 5 meters of concrete between you and your noisy machine. Still want to take chances with drawing looters? Go with the Remington Noiseless. I had one, it was so quiet that it barely made an impression on the paper! But if you insist on posting communiques with the outside world and want a minimalist machine with a small footprint that is somewhat quiet, go with the Olivetti Lettera 32. Zip up case for easy travel in case you need to hit The Road. It’s so small you don’t even need a table. Works great on the lap or from the horse’s saddle. I want a horse if things go south. 

What about full-sized machines? We see a lot of copy about the smaller portables, but what about those YUGE machines that were such a joy?

Full-sized , aka, The Standard. I wrote a post, “Titans of the Typosphere,” that touched on this subject. Despite their size, the YUGE ones are often superior machines — even if your fingers are small.

https://typewriterreview.com/2017/05/12/titans-of-the-typosphere/

Having had a machine get wrecked in shipping (the first effort to buy a Selectric II) are there any packing (and for that matter shopping) tips you could suggest?

You read my mind! Got a post in the works with detailed instructions on how to pack along with pics. BUT — getting the average seller to abide by these tips is another matter! See answer to next question. ?Quick answer. 4 inches of padding all around the case. Ranpak is fine. Bubble is better. Use a rubber pad to disengage the carriage lock. Keep the carriage free floating. But, wrap the typewriter in plastic wrap to keep the carriage from moving. The carriage is the most sensitive part. I’ve got a story about Royal doing a stunt involving dropping typewriters by parachute. Those that landed flat were ok. If it landed on the side — the carriage got out of whack. Don’t know about packing electrics. I use FedEx packing services. I drop off typewriter, they pack it in a new box with loads of Ranpak. After I’ve secured the carriage. Never had a problem. FedEx seems to actually care about doing a good job. It costs about $10-12 for this service, depending on typewriter size. Totally worth the peace of mind! Plus, I don’t need to keep packing supplies in stock. 

A Selectric mechanic retired to his own shop in a big city (after 50 years btw) tells me that buying a machine on eBay is like roulette – with maybe better odds in the casino due to shipping. Would you buy a machine on-line? Or, would you stick to Craigslist and an in-person type-drive?

I agree, eBay for me has been 50/50, even after giving packing tips and the offer to give them a great review! But, eBay is a buyer’s market. I look for typewriters that claim the machine is “fully working” or some such language. If it arrives not in working condition, you have the eBay buyer’s guarantee. Full refund, including shipping both ways. The seller usually just tells me to keep the machine. I have quite a few busted ones in the basement. But still bummed — the world has one less working typewriter. I don’t have a repairman nearby. Sad!

What about old-fashioned publishing? Does ANYONE have old linotype machines, presses and such? I’d sure like to set up a hot lead machine one of these days but damned if I can find one.

Forget that and the mimeo — look up Risograph. That’s what I want.? They still make ’em and you can get good used ones. Great for doing a zine. But still need some power to run the thing. Not good for the doomsday scenario. 

(Hmmm…rocks and chisels?) 2. When the whole world electronica backbone fails what role do you see the printed/typed word?

When, not IF?? I’m optimistic about the world grid staying ON. As it turns out, it’s much easier to control (distract) people when you get them hooked on these little gizmos and screens. If they go offline, they’re liable to read and think and, well, we know that’s not good. However, I’m seeing young people opting out and looking for something more fulfilling than nonsensical snippets. I suspect it’s mostly brief moments of sobriety before they drink the magic potion and lull themselves into a semi-conscious state of swiping and tapping or gaming. If reports are true, teens drink less, don’t drive and delay having sex. What’s the fun in life?!?! Not much to write home about. I yeah, I forgot, they don’t write much these days. I’ve been reading my father’s letters from WWII to his parents. While the circumstances were dire, the writing was heartwarming. Suppose these days the warriors just fire up Skype or FaceTime….

Got that right, brother.  Still…care to make any side bets (after reading books like “One Second After”) about whether the Post Office will still be delivering?

Don’t know about that book, though I watched Kevin Costner in The Postman. Still delivering after the crash! There might’ve even been a typewriter involved in that movie.

All great questions! While I might not share your view on the current state of world affairs, I am a fan of post-apocalypse tales. And it seems these stories are never in short-supply. What is it about things falling apart that is so compelling? Do we yearn for a return to simpler times? Do we need to destroy the present to restore the past? I don’t know. About the only thing I’ve been advocating is the potential for a typewriter to reduce distractions and reveal a voice that might’ve gone undiscovered. Plus, it’s damn fun to pound the keys and see those typebars make a lasting impression! I never have that much enjoyment on a computer, which always seems like work. 

Enjoy and happy trails, amigo!

Dan’s site is https://typewriterreview.com/ and also has some great sources if you’re looking for a good manual machine with a little “character” to it.

If you’re feeling flush, you can get a mechanical keyboard like the Plugable Full Size 104-Key Mechanical Keyboard for Typing Enthusiasts and Gamers with Adjustable White LED Backlighting, Blue MX Style “Clicky” Switches, Double-shot ABS Keycaps, and N-Key Rollover (long enough link for yah?) for $50 bucks, but I get occasional double-strikes with that and finding a useful double-strike filter for Win-10 (the included one is useless, won’t go less than 0.5 sec.).

Hard to be a good mechanical machine – so check Dan’s reviews of some oldies but goodies.

Or, head to Amazon and pick up a very nicely reviewed (there) Nakajima WPT-150 Electronic Typewriter which with a ribbon or two will be under $200.

It’s the write thing to do.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Coping: “You Bought a What?”

Don’t buy it yet – we are still in the proofreading adventure on the new (non-fiction) book Dimensions Next Door, but we’re now in the test-loading phase at Amazon…but ONE of the interesting items in the book that I’ve mentioned before is the shofar.

Called “trumpets” in the Anglo-centric interpretations of the ancient texts, the shofar was typically a ram’s horn.  March around a city you don’t like with six friends for six-days, and then on the 7-th day, all seven blow shofar horns – and presto – the walls come down.  Only worked at Jericho, so far, but that made it into the record books.  Not sure if it would work on the walls of Quebec City, but to even asks is to risk rendition here on Planet Paranoid.

Having only musical skill in production and electronics – sure and some voice work, too – there didn’t seem to be anything on the web under shofarsovernight.com.  So, instead, we picked up an Amazon Hand-fired Modern Didgeridoo – Beeswax Mouthpiece – Easy Player!  It was about $30-bucks, so not exactly breaking the bank…

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When the book is done – in the next couple of days I hope – there will be an announcement on here.  In  the meantime, if the fences around the ranch fall down, I will have hit upon the magic described in the book.

In the meantime, I am looking at the didge and wondering how to get it to make all those marvelous  sounds instructors on YouTube show off.  Also wondering where people get all the breath to keep one playing.

If you’re at the other end of “over the river and through the woods” (paying exorbitant tolls and fees) AND if you don’t mine catching communicable diseases from the kids, it might be something for the old folks to have on hand to keep the “wee people” busy this time next week when Turkey time comes rolling around.

It comes with a bee’s wax mouthpiece and some spare wax.  I’m thinking it is the finest mustache wax ever.

Scheduled Days Off, Black Friday

If you are still working (who can afford not to?) might be an idea to put in for a couple of days off the week after next.  That way, when you hit the online sales on Black Friday, you’ll have someone home to collect the goodies when they land.

Just thinking ahead…

Annual Old Man Web Hosting Sale

We’re still happy with our web hosting services provided by Brian Carpenter of www.emwd.com.  As happens every year, he has a birthday sale, so you can pick up some deals on web site hosting if you’re of a mind to.

Their shared WordPress hosting is less than $5 a month in honor of Brian turning the big five-zero.  Click over to https://www.emwd.com/hosting-sale/ for details if you want to become a famous  blogger.  (If you succeed, let me know how you did it…I’ll write the book on it and get rich.  I’ll leave you to pay the taxes and provide the fans and a private jet for us for lifetime use.)

Good Letter

Not as a comment, but in a very pleasant email from one of our readers – and the topic is “climate change.”  As I’ve tried to explain, climate has been changing since the volcanos cooled and anyone who is trying to monetize that is a schuckster, plain and simple.

When a get thoughtful letters like this one, I am very pleased that our average reader’s IQ has not been reduced to the temperature of cold bath water..

 “Hi, George,

I just finished re-reading a Michael Crichton book, State of Fear. Publish date of 2004 Mr. Crichton states “This a work of fiction. … However, references to real people, institutions, and organizations that are documented in footnotes are accurate. Footnotes are real.”

The story debunks Global Warming and the footnotes substantiate the debunking.

His book greatly foretells your many comments on this and other issues, especially the development of a “state of perpetual fear” as a means of controlling the populace. He describes the results of 9-11 and the Patriot Act, most likely unconstitutional and very telling of a future police state.

I find his novels very rigorously constructed with scientific information and thought provoking ideas. And here we are 13 years later with Global Warming BS still taking up press time and effort. And as you said in today’s article “We have arrived at a day – long-predicted here – where the over-built media doesn’t have enough “real news” to keep the bloated information channels full.”

A world of Fake News.”

The problem on Planet Stupid is that everyone wants to be a star, no one does their homework, choosing instead to repeat the thoughts of others.

I’ve got a secret for you:  The reasons that religious orders throughout time have taken the vows of silence, simplicity, minimalism, and manual work, is to quiet the mind.

This reader in Atlanta might as well be part of a Lost Tibetan Order – because he’s obviously able to read more than 200 $CHRS before his brainwashing forces a GOSUB and the brain is mired in spaghetti code.

That’s refreshing.

More Holiday Reminders

Yes, we will have a column on Black Friday morning, but Turkey day I have a late appointment to test horizontal polarization issues.

On that note, don’t forget to order a bunch of Tom&Jerry mix  Alcohol-free rum flavoring and the microwave works – and it’s yummy.  If you still are consuming,  Braveheart 92-proof spiced is good.

Just remember, heat and hold over 170-F to burn off the booze, or use the flavoring.  Walk don’t drive, otherwise.  If you have a long ways to go pick up some DEWALT DG5204 Professional kneepads.

Oh, thanks for asking!  No, I haven’t talked to anyone in the NFL about logo licensing kneepads but I think it’s one way to get back in the good graces of those of us spending cold fall winter time out in the shop..

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Bitcoins Biting, Stocks-a-Stalking?

Let’s ramble: A number of readers have asked me what I think is going on with Bitcoins and why – if I’m such a wise old man – I don’t ‘invest’ in them.

The answers are incredibly simple.

To begin with there is a YUGE ethical question behind Bitcoins:  What is their intrinsic value?  You see, in old-school economics, a thing has some intrinsic value: A measure of oil, a bushel of wheat, and such.  So the role of agreed money is to act as a durable substitute for the physical goods.

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Measured in terms of durability, gold and silver – hell, even the “iffy” Federal Reserve Notes – as backed up by some notional value.  Precious metals have lots of values (jewelry, dentistry, industrial, etc.) and even the FRN’s that coinsters love to bash as “having no value” actually do have significant value.

They just don’t seem to understand as well as our sources on the fringers of The Control Network, that the power to tax is altogether real and tangible.

Bitcoins, if you ever took the time to read the National Commission on EMP summarized in a report to Congress, you would grasp that placing high reliability on anything “electrical” is something of a gamble.

In fairness, there are two views on this:  One view (*which I hold to) is that when it fits the needs and agendas of The Control Network (*The PowersThatBe/PTB – the folks who are housecleaning in Hollywood and who took out Roy Moore from politics) the lights will go off while the Rich and Famous all run to their hidey-holes.  In  this scenario, the control and ruling class simply let we little people empty those 500-million rounds into one-another.  After the population reduction is complete, they will come back and “own the world” for their class.

The only issue this leaves is considering what their agenda might look like.  In other words, when will ThePowers hit those benchmarks they want online first, so that after social meltdown and cultural genocide, they will be able to pick up the pieces – with least effort – and re-establish control.

It’s a graceful outlook from their point of view because it solves almost ALL their problems.

Oil depletion becomes a non-issue:  The banking problems go away.  Most pollution problems go bye=bye, natural habitats make some recovery.  About the only thing to be done would be an “emergency force” of some kind to ensure only limited meltdowns of nuclear plants takes place during the chaos.  Or, that may simply be one of the “costs of doing business, and besides, how many are there in South America and Africa?

With a world population of 500-million, as cited in the 1976 Club of Rome report, (I would suggest you read The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind first as it’s the 1976 document and then follow that with Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update to see the plan more clearly.  these things take time to manage.

The other school says no, ThePowers will never turn off the lights because controlling the lights is how people are controlled.  Our recent Peoplenomics predictions about 18 (or more) mass shootings in 2018 is based on the notion of a new form of sociopathic narcissism that you can see emerging on Social Media everywhere you look.

Used with limited purposes, computers have a marvelous application.  But, when you cross that “Make not idols of yourselves” that’s in many of the world’s old-school religions, you get into slippery slopes fairly quickly.  Speaking of which, you did see one a Worldwide Church of A.I. has filed for tax-free status with IRS?

This is another hugely important point to observe since the question is whether science has become fettered, encumbered, and controlled – like a religion – in how marketers have seized on specific environmental problems (burn down the Amazon, for example) and are trying to monetize the whole shebang into a global ruling class with a global climate change tax schema.

Meantime, “climate change” has turned into a marketing frenzy with odd behaviors at every turn.  Take the pope for instance:  Says Climate Deniers are Perverse.  I love when non-experts enter the fray.  It becomes even more absurd when the headline “Pope Francis given a Lamborghini sports car – but plans to auction it for charity” crossed the wires.  Lambo’s are climate-friendly?  You see the contradiction, of course.

But enough of logic and discourse.  Let’s get back to good old greed:

The problem with Bitcoin this morning appears when you look at how the recent pricing (*since March) seems to present a finished advance that could be starting down.  I’ve penciled it in for you:

Granted this is not a terribly happy outcome for coinsters to consider.

The good news is there is still a count where what I have labeled wave 1 up on the left there doesn’t count and we need to look as a different count starting with the bottom of wave 2.  This underscores one of the weaknesses of Elliott in irregular markets.

By “irregular” I mean that the information and numbers of players is in flux.  The stock market, on the other hand, has a semi-regular number of players and while the number of dollars will vary, you can make a reasonable estimate as to the “size of the pot” (poker term) on Friday after the US close.  Which is why Peoplenomics comes out on Saturday mornings…

For now, we would have to project the Dow down to the 22,560 area and then a blow-off to a final spring high – and that’s good news for Bitcoiners because it would leave open that more optimistic count (from the bottom of 2 in the chart) which would put BTC (digi-tulips) up around $8500-9500 before the bottom falls out.  Nice – just keep the lights on.

On to something more current.

A Few Data Points

Industrial Production and Utilization will be announced by the Fed in about 16-mintes – that might move things.

Import and Export Prices are just out:

US. import prices advanced 0.2 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 0.8 percent in September. U.S. export prices recorded no change in October, after increasing 0.7 percent in September.

Imports

All Imports: Import prices increased 0.2 percent in October, after rising 0.8 percent in September. The price index for all imports rose 1.6 percent over the past 3 months. Higher prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the overall rise in import prices for October. U.S. import prices increased 2.5 percent for the year ended in October.

Fuel Imports: The price index for fuel imports advanced 1.4 percent in October following a 5.5-percent rise in September. Fuel import prices increased 11.1 percent over the past 3 months. The October increase was driven by higher petroleum prices which advanced 1.7 percent, more than offsetting a 6.7-percent drop in natural gas prices. Fuel import prices rose 13.2 percent over the past 12 months; petroleum prices were the primary contributor, advancing 14.9 percent. Import prices for natural gas fell 18.2 percent over the past year.”

This is just a hint but these prices would seem to suggest deterioration in the related balance of payments deficit…

And going into the Fed data, the Dow futures were up 70, which Peoplenomics readers will recognize will put us near the top of the trend line dating from April of this year, which now becomes overhead resistance, since we had a nice close below it yesterday.  From there, I’m looking for sideways action through the Holidays and a dose of “paint the tape” for year-end bonus calcs.  FAANG stocks might do OK a while longer.

A final rally driver in Q1 2018 comes into view with Global M&A Activity Predicted to Increase in Q1 2018.

Distractions and Useless?

Decide for Ure-self:

Japanese Train Line Apologizes for ‘Inconvenience’ After Departing 20 Seconds Early.

 

Amex launches blockchain-based business payments using Ripple. Here all this time, I though Gallo made Ripple.

Roy Moore’s sexual assault allegations cloud Alabama special Senate election.

Rihanna on Building a Beauty Empire: ‘I’m Going To Push the Boundaries in This Industry’.  File under ugly threats.

And our biggie to worry about:” Here’s How Many Turkeys Are Killed Each Year For Thanksgiving.

And in our Notes from The Network Department

The Oxford University college fighting elitism.

Naw…really?  Tell us it ain’t so…

Off to load on cynical pills, mor’on the morrow…

When Not to Follow Trading Models

One of our readers asked an interesting question that deserves a comprehensive answer this morning:  What is the point of all the Peoplenomics research and charts if *Ure’s truly*  doesn’t religiously follow his own models?

FOGODfear of gap opening down – –which the market is set to deliver in an unusually timely way as our example today at the open. After our usual headlines and coffee, natch.

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Markets Get Some Data – Much Hype

While we await the Big Data Point of the week (the CPI figure tomorrow) it is interesting to see that bonds have retreated on the yield site – and again, it tells us that the Fed-in-a-Box model is still useful.

Were you to click over here and inspect the 1-year view of the 10-year treasury (2.40% Monday) you would notice that rates were almost a quarter point higher back in March (2.61%).  I’m pretty sure my deflationist pal (Dr.) Jas Jain will be heartened by this.  It goes hband-in-glove with the long wave economic mode.

This model says (vastly simplified) that there are regular peaks and valleys of interest rates over a time-scale of 46 to 90+ years.  And that when you pass a major top (1980-1981) you can almost set a 40-year alarm clock and expect to be in the vicinity of either a long wave low, or well on your way to it.

(Continues below)

 

The problem with the long wave in economics is people can look at the data (including the maximum zoom-out on the 10-year), see the long wave decline staring them full-face, and then go back to “normal life” like it doesn’t matter.

Ah, but it does.

Because due to all those many long years of compounding interest, what passes for “money” in today’s world has been sorrowfully debased out of public view.

But let’s go back to 1913, before the cowardly Congress abdicated its lawful role to manage the nations money.  At that instant in time, one dollar had one dollar’s worth of purchasing power and zero debt bound up in the currency.

Fast-forward to present day and there is on the order of four-cents(!!!) of purchasing power remaining.  The balance of the “money” is accumulated debt and that is “backed-up) not by a reserve capacity to make more goods and services.  Rather, it’s backed-up by the government’s power to increasingly TAX its citizens.

Along the way, various crooks and scoundrels figure out how to seize and manipulate the reins of power, but in the end, most are caught.

Which reminds me, you did see where the Department of Justice may ask for a special prosecutor like Mueller to go look into Hillary Clinton?  That holds promise of being an interesting one to follow.  Again, though, don’t hold your breath for “breaking news.”  There is simply so many “beholden to power” in the Establishment’s NE Media Circus that the facts may be very slow to appear.

Back to point,…

How Money’s Remaining Value is Overstated

I think it’s fair to believe the sincerity of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Inflation Calculator that you can find on their home page here.  It works.

Using it, starting with $100 in 1913, and using  2017 as our ‘end date’ we can see that in order to buy what would have cost $100 in 1913 now costs an amazing $2,472.67.

Turning it around, we see it means the present dollar has only 4.0442-CENTS of purchasing power remaining.  The other 96% of “money” is debt and IOUs.  Like the Federal Budget Deficit, which is well north of $20-trillion dollars.  Given there are only 153.861-million people working (date here, page 3) it means each worker is “on the hook” for $133-thousand, plus or minus a cheeseburger.

If you think that’s bad?  It’s only the start.

Because if you could find someone dumb-enough to hand you even that 4.0442 cents, that would only have been valid back in early January.

As we will find out tomorrow, like oil depletion, debt never sleep, either.  If we assume that real inflation this year is 2.5%, it means we can take those 4-cents and multiple them times recent inflation.

OK, down to 3.943-cents.  And we have more to go.

Remember that one this hypothetical fool hands you the dough, you are on the hook for income taxes before spending.  Yeah – ugly stuff to mention, that Life works like that.  Say you’re in the 28% bracket.  Care to guess what happens to your 3.943 cents now?

It’s down to 2.839-cents of actual spendable if you were “given” the money.

But we’re not done yet!

We also have to consider that if we go out and spend money, both the state legislature, and probably a city, too will want their pound of flesh.

Let’s use a nice round number like 10%.  If you live in rural East Texas, like we do, maybe 6.75% is arguable.  But there’s only a few dozen of us out here.   Some places not to live based on taxes?

  1. Chicago, Illinois and Long Beach, California: 10.25 percent.
  2. Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama and Baton Rouge and New Orleans, Louisiana: 10 percent.
  3. Seattle and Tacoma, Washington: 9.6 percent.

Ure is in a terrible generous mood.  I’m going to use ONLY  10% sales tax to illustrate my point:  Now your nominal 4-cents of purchasing power has been paddy-whacked down to?

2.551-CENTS.

Which means, if you are especially slow and not able to keep up with the class today, that if you had $100 to spend in 1913, to ACTUALLY get the same purchased goods today, you would need how much?

$3,920.03

And so I look at the Minneapolis Fed data which claims you’d need just $2,472.67 and mention that are lying.  They are under-reporting inflation by almost 37%.  Or, if someone offers you the Fed inflation – hold out for a further 58%.

Economics problems are always done basis “all things equal” or ceteris paribus. Which Wiki’s out like so:

Ceteris paribus or caeteris paribus is a Latin phrase meaning “other things equal”. English translations of the phrase include “all other things being equal” or “other things held constant” or “all else unchanged“. A prediction or a statement about a causal, empirical, or logical relation between two states of affairs is ceteris paribus if it is acknowledged that the prediction, although usually accurate in expected conditions, can fail or the relation can be abolished by intervening factors.”

All of which is a free bit of morning advice on how “the game is rigged” to make it seem like this old Financial Titanic isn’t shipping water as the band plays on.

But Ure a damn fool if you haven’t seen it before now:  In 1913 people didn’t have their “money jacked.”

Sure, death tax (inheritance) was taxed started in 1900, but it wasn’t until the 1930’s that States – hard-hit by the Great Depression – began to hit people up for state income and sales taxes.

The sad truth (basis ceteris paribus) is that in Illinois, we can whack another 4.95% off the “mythically reported” inflation-adjustments. That’s because my sales tax corrections didn’t include state income taxes.

State of Illinois income tax rate increased to 4.95 percent. The Illinois Income Tax rate for individuals has increased from 3.75 percent (.0375) to 4.95 percent (.0495), effective July 1, 2017

Our bottom line – if you live in Chicago – is that your remaining purchasing power (net of tax effects) is 2.4247-cents compared with a 1913 dollar and tax environment.

There, bet you feel all better now?  Let me summarize: We’re all working for 2.5-cents on the dollar, close-enough.

Didn’t mean to ramble off a Peoplenomics report here, but we do – at some point – have to stop BS’ing ourselves.  Everything’s a business model.  The “truth” is hidden by lies through omissions, and yeah, they are coming to get us all.

Pill?

Hot off the Press Release

From the Labor Department:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest rise since an advance
of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012.

Within final demand in October, prices for final demand services rose 0.5 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 0.3 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in October, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.3 percent.

Final Demand

Final demand services: The index for final demand services rose 0.5 percent in October, the largest increase since moving up 0.5 percent in April. Three-quarters of the October advance can be traced
to a 1.1-percent rise in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The index for final demand transportation and
warehousing services increased 0.8 percent. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing edged up 0.1 percent.

Futures are not impressed – Dow is set to open down 30-40.  Ure remains short, expecting a lower close.  Rum-soaked stogie, bub?  My Scrooge McDuck suit may look stupid, but it’s shtick…what can I say?

Janet Yellen’s remarks at a in-consequential awards deal are here if you run out of Ambien.

Future of Cash

NY Times has a good article on the future of cash over here.

We’ve been telling our Peoplenomics readers for years that when the next Depression comes, cash will be outlawed and private holdings of everything (gold, silver, crypto’s – the whole she-bang) will have to be placed in a bank and with A.I. will come auto-taxes.  Slavery with software.  Is this progress, or what?

Someone Read Our AndyPet Piece?

That’s what comes to mind when I read about this fancy new pet droid. Quick – let’s rush robo-fleas to market.

Maybe we could infect ’em with plague, since that’s the coming pandemic rolling into view.  Wonder if The Network/PTB have development grants to off useless eaters, huh?

Just trying to be practical and make a buck.  Morality has nothing to do with money, as I’m sure you’ve figured by now.

Readings and Rantings

How many times have we said that destruction causes economic growth?  Here we go again as Home Depot lifts full-year forecasts on boost from hurricanes.

No MAGA Effect?  Think again: CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquency Rates Lowest in More Than a Decade. Unless you’re a democrat, in which case it’s just “luck” and statistical quirks, of course.

New Blood Pressure Guidelines

Some new blood pressure guidelines out say that oldsters (moi) should be treated for high blood pressure when it’s over 130/80.  Download the whole report (282 pages worth) from this page.

Or, just take your BP in the afternoon.  Mine was 113/75 P57 yesterday.  When I read political stories (in the morning) my ears bleed.  Everything in balance…

This must mean phama companies have new product coming or they need an income boost…oh for shame, I shouldn’t say that.  Hand me another pill?

Oh-Duh Department

Last weekend’s Peoplenomics documented the link between rising mass shootings (we forecast a central tendency for 18 to occur in 2018).

And today we see this: Rising Teen Suicides and a Surge in Social Media Use: Is There a Link?

Outlook for gold in Peoplenomics tomorrow.  Time to go research and write…

Coping: Christmas System 1: Room-by-Room

Hate to admit it, but I am a compulsive manager.  Which is to say when there is something to be done, the first thing I do is sit back with a big cup of coffee and think about how to accomplish the task in the most methodical & efficient way possible.

This applies to Christmas, as much as anything else.  So, now and then over the next few weeks, I’ll show you a couple of ways to make Christmas shopping a very short, joy-inducing, event.  Nothing but brain cells and clicks, as Ure sees it.

The only real problem is deciding which method to follow to get to the sweet-spot of the joyous holiday blah, blah, blahs…

(Continues below)

 

The first idea I came up with is called Room-by-Room.  We have By-Gender, then there’s By-Hobby, and several others.

Which oughta be obvious, unless you’re hung-over or just need a caffeine infusion before taxing the brain.  Let’s wander around Uretopia ranch and I’ll point out a few things…

Front Gate:

The front gate of this place is usually open.  In rural East Texas, that’s short-hand for “we’re home and open to receiving guests provided you called first and we’re expecting you...”  That’s also “rural code” for “We can drop you from here…”

An open gate also means the mailman and the PS and FedEx drivers are welcome.  There are too many times (talking to our drivers, who play Santa several times a week all year-long) that a closed gate would result either in a trip to Palestine (14 miles) or to Tyler (37 miles) to pick up a missed delivery.  Gate’s gotta be open.

Still, we’ve been eyeing this Mighty Mule MM360 Automatic Gate Opener for Medium Duty Single Swing Gates for 16′ Long or 550 lb.  The “problems” with this little project is obvious:  We don’t presently have 120 volt power up at the gate.  Putting it in isn’t terribly hard, except I’d have to rent a trencher ($$$) and pay OM2‘s son a few bucks, and that’d solve the power problem.

Provided, that is, we don’t cut the telephone cables and the water lines in the process.  Those are trip-wires.

At that, what could go wrong?  Well the power could go out.

And what about the delivery guys?  Do we give then a code?  Oh-oh, wouldn’t that mean a pour (of concrete if you’re a snoozing slicker) and putting in a pedestal and THAT in turn, means big trucks (thinking concrete and lumber yard delivers) won’t be able to make the turn.

Hmmm… there has to be some way to “tune-up” the look of the front gate.

Which gets us to a $12 LIYUDL Solar Powered house address number Lamp Light,3W 4 LED Waterproof Doorplate Stainless Steel Light.  While there’s only one review, I figure this could be mounted over the existing house numbers and that would be the extent of changing the look of the place.  $12 instead of $330.  I can live with that.  Our meanderings resume…

In the office, one of my chairs is being snarfy.  It’s hard to beat Amazon Basics for things like this.  So a AmazonBasics Mid-Back Mesh Chair for $65 will be my big “end of year” office splurge for the year.

Except for TurboTax Home & Business 2017 Fed+Efile+State PC/MAC Disc [Amazon Exclusive] on  disk, which runs $95.

Off to the guest room/gym next:  Bintiva Professional Grade, Non Slip Grip, Neoprene Coated Dumbbells 10 LB Pair – Blue is about the only thing I could think of. If you have a treadmill, weight machine, kettle balls and oxygen, what else is there? (Elaine already one dumbbell…what’s two more?)

Nothing to get for the bathroom in the guest quarters.  I did want to mention that back in September, I picked up a Winsome 92436 Luggage Rack with Shelf which at the time was $29-bucks.  Today it’s up to $39.  If this is a hint about tomorrow Consumer Price Report, call in the Astroglide crew.

Still, can’t say enough good things about the luggage rack.  Elaine keeps a basket of fresh towels on it and rolls up the bath mat there when we don’t have company.  Which is most of the time…

(The GQ water heater is behind that door, so nothing’s blocked…)

Moving to the shop, the Big One on the wish list is a plasma cutter. I keep thinking I would do more metal work except that cutting raw stock down with the chop saw is noisy.

I spend more time looking at Amazon’s Super Deal Plasma Cutter Cutting 50AMP CUT-50 Digital Inverter 110-220V Welding Welder Cutting Machine Dual Voltage w/ Free Mask for $229.  No, a handheld free mask doesn’t excite me, either.  But, cutting 1/2-inch steel without firing up the oxy-rig?  Yeah, now you’re talking something… (You know you’re aging some when you spend more time on the tool pages than  the porn pages…)

The problem I have (more like an addiction) is I love tools.  We’ve had the “tool slut” conversation before.

I was all set to check out not only with the plasma cutter, but a boat-load of consumables.  Even went over to the house to talk to Elaine about it.  “Do what you want, dear, it’s your money….”  OMG, they broke the mold: What a wonderful wife, right?

Then suddenly, on the way back to the office (which is off the shop) I stopped in my tracks.  All that long-ago MBA training came back to me in a flash…

If you buy a tool, don’t buy anything unless the work done with the tool will be at least 10 X the price of tool…otherwise, rent.

Well, spit fire and save matches!  $250 forth of cutter and consumables would mean $2,500 worth of cutting prior to welding.  That’s gobs of cutting!

Been thinking about welding up a trailer, though, but been stymied by the shipping costs of having metal delivered.  Non-trivial, at best.

For a second, the mental fog cleared:  We’ve lived 14-years out at the end of the wire with nothing more than  a pickup truck, so what did I need a trailer for?

The mental chatter began to scream:

You can get some of that great FREE stuff on Craigslist and be able to swoop in and pick up those bargains that show up on the Criagslist in the Materials section…”

Hold it! (Rational brain working again?) That would only result in what?  (all together: MORE WORK!!!)  I’m how old?

In the end, I decided something for the electronics bench made a hell of a lot more sense: An ESD Safe Compact Desoldering Station (CSI474A). Turned out to be cheaper (by far) than the plasma cutter ($130 vs. $250) and I really do work on thousands of dollars worth of equipment.  So this one (I’m telling myself) makes the 10X rule.

The 10X rule is very useful. I came up with a corollary you might be able to use if the plasma cutters go on sale in January or February:

What if we consider 10X time savings as a criteria?  That would give us a more “wiggle-room.” And it’s how I justified the rototiller:  The garden soil would NEVER get turned over without a tiller.  Given a shovel, it’s like trying to turn  over pieces of a parking garage floor.  Ever try planting in Quik-Crete?

Speaking of which!  We have a few bare spots in the yard that just never want to fill-in right.  That’s because the soil is concrete-like.  While I was shopping the answer seemed to be stuff: Liquid Aerating Soil Loosener- Aerator Soil Conditioner- No Mechanical or Core Aeration- Simple Lawn Solutions- Any Grass Type, All Season- Great for Compact Soils, Standing water, Poor Drainage..  Sure: $30 bucks, but better than not having the lawn established and weeds coming up.

We will get to this March, or so.  Figure by the time I get around to reading the directions.  By then, soil temps will support grass seeding again.

One other tool – and this is part electronic, part cook: ES6530B Non-Contact Digital Laser IR Infrared Thermometer Temperature Gun for Kitchen Cooking BBQ Automotive Industrial, -58? – 1022? (-50? to 550?) with HD Backlight LCD Display Accuracy Reading which was $33.

The idea of having this around the electronics bench is being able to check component temps without electrocuting yourself.  It also has other uses, like seeing how hot the oven is when proofing yeast which like 94F ideally.

We (*Zeus the cat and me) spent a fair bit of research time on this:  The “critical measurement” on these thermometers is called the D:S (distance to sense) ratio;  Cheap units are about 8:1  while a better unit is 12:1 and realty good (meaning more expensive) are 20:1.

The 8:1’s give a reading in about a 2-inch circle at one foot.  The 12:1’s should give about an  inch of spot at a foot.  The 20:1 units will give you 3/4-inch at a foot (or better).  The 20:1 units are more spendy but sometimes you get what you pay for.

So much for thinking about Christmas….

I’s invite you to wander through the House, but that’s Elaine’s domain.  And pappy didn’t raise no fool.  Or, did he?

Write when you see the first wild turkey of the season…

George@ure.net