Approaching a Break-through?

What better time to look at what’s been going on in the back room of Old Man Labs here at the ranch?

This morning, we lift just one corner of the veil of secrecy that I’ve thrown over my efforts to help hack space-time.  Dimensions Next Door.
Compared to what’s at stake?

The weekly stock charts (while very profitable) pale in comparison in terms of intellectual weight.  I think you’ll agree once you read the latest on our project and why we’re looking for 50-pound bags of rock salt…

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Ugly “Climate Change” Crap

Reader Note:  Due to a CenturyLink outage, we are on backup/satellite access this morning.  The [alleged] phone company says service should be back up at 9 AM.  But you can trust that as much as you can trust Congress.  But, we’d like to be surprised, for a change (on both counts).

So take a later, Maria…” They’re going, going…well, almost.  As of this morning, hurricane Jose is down to a post-tropical cyclone and weekend weather in the Northeast should be mostly sunny and mild.

And, in the Caribbean, Maria is down to Cat-3 status after wrecking Puerto Rico.  As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center, by the middle of next week, we should see Maria blowing herself out well off the North Carolina coastline. (Cone here)

(Continues below)

 

It has been appalling to see the news media pandering and “climate change” nonsense.

You realize, I hope, that the only reason “climate change” even jumped into dinner table conversation is that “Global Warming” blew up?  People try to forget the horrible mass of data-adjusting that was necessary to make-up a sellable story.  A few of us do, however, remember Copenhagen.

Today, you may wish to read, as we have suggested often, about urban heat islanding, as well.  Although we take it as Gospel that a lot of Wiki edits come from climate “true believers” the fact of urban heat islanding is clear in this entry:

“An urban heat island (UHI) is an urban area or metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces.[1][2] Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor.[3] As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The less-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[4]

On this basis, I am not a “climate denier.”

I am something far more dangerous:  I’m a statistically-based independent thinker.  The worst nightmare of the elites, their bought & paid government and enviro-minions.  We ask a lot of “inconvenient questions.”

While the panic-stricken mainstream was yammering about “worst hurricane season ever” we looked for the data to support such claims.

The correct answer is?  2005.

The pandering, fund-raising, global-tax on humans and cow farts union would love something more marketable, I’m sure.

But, in fact, there’s no way to spin up the present season on “man-caused” warming.

Especially with stories about winter coming to the upper West a whole MONTH ahead of schedule.

It was easy enough to shove the first reports aside a week or two back.  Out of the way places in mountainous parts of Montana don’t count, so far as the climate-lovers think.

But when the snow is coming down in the Mammoth Lakes region in the Sierra Nevada’s, and Reno’s seeing snow already, it’s hard to ignore.

Even harder for the Northeast Groupthink Papers and the television nutworks (sic).  When this early cold event starts getting hold in the Los Angeles Times with great coverage like this.

If you’re capable of just “looking at the damn numbers” there is another way to consider climate – a way not encouraged by the PowersThatBe.  They have a vested (financial) interest in keeping you dumbed down.  By doing so, you can get circle-jerked into “social justice actions” like sending money to their money front organizations.

This other way is to pick a few cities – I happened to choose Houston, Texas – and then go looking for how many days did it snow?  A suitable data table may be found here.

I would draw your attention to the winters in the early 1960’s and again in the early-to-mid 1970’s.  We would, of course, expect to see an oscillation roughly akin to the 11.5 year solar cycle.  Just like in  2005, we were quickly approaching the solar minimum.  See the chart?

Notice where 2005 is?  Down toward the bottom.  Which is exactly when we would expect to see the highest spread between the sea water, warmed at the top of the cycle due to more solar output, and the air, already cooling (air gives up heat faster because it doesn’t hold as much).  Presto!  Crappy hurricane year.

Around here, we look at the numbers like this and we ask certain questions:  “Will next year likely – based on dynamics that seem obvious to us – be worse than this year?

Well, sadly, yes.  And maybe for two or three – perhaps even four – more hurricane seasons.

Climate data you should be looking for would list the coldest averages, but instead, the scare-tactics crowd will sell concepts like “Cold snaps” and “Cold Outbreaks.”  Mostly, without giving the Sun its due.

Will there be a few flakes of snow in the wintry mix this morning in Missoula, MT?  Maybe.  But it will warm next week into the upper 60’s and maybe 70 a week from now.

Call that climate change?

Perhaps, but to the Agendists, you’re only a sucker with the three most prized assets coveted by the Power Class:  You have a wallet, you pay attention to their messages, and you have a vote.

The most dangerous weapons in today’s world are a calculator and a sense of “clean data.”

On the music side of life, fine “eye of hurricane” song is here. Fits with “hurricane gone.”

Yes, a Column Monday

Pretty sure I’ll miss the Rapture this weekend.  Didn’t hear? Nobody panic, there’s a theory that the Rapture starts on Saturday.

Although I was going to publish a Memorandum to the Almighty Monday, I decided not to.  It would offend virtually everyone.

It chastises what may be a weak kick-off to the Tribulation.

Beyond that, it’s a marketing critique.

You see, when the Bible was being put together, 144,000 people being Raptured would an impossibly large number.  Today?  Not so much.

Here’s a sample:

Let me remind YOU of the numbers (like I need to, right?):

We have roughly  7,000,000,000 people doing time on the Rock.

You could have 48,000 Raptures at 144,000 each and still have enough left over for a big city right?  I’m talking a Big City for the Finale:  One 88-million souls or two cities of 44-million, or  3 countries with 29-million per country, and leave it up to the local sinners on the distro, right?  That’s still big enough for YOUR “big war finish” Armageddon deal, right?”

Or, to put it another way:  We could Rapture out 2.7-million people per day for seven-years of misery (or Missouri) and still get  an extra-large Armageddon wind-up.

If your calculator is warmed up:  A “Rapture” this weekend would constitute one person for each 48,000 people on the rock. You wouldn’t know anyone who made the cut, say statistics.  It’d be a bust – a non-event.

Thus, I beseech you (I penned to the Almighty):  Who would run with such an outdated marketing plan?

Marketing to Eyeballs

I’ve been mentioning to you lately my skepticism with Time for running all those seemingly worthless, social, music, entertainment, click-baity kinds of stories.

Now, it seems to be paying off big-time for them as “Time Inc in talks to sell assets; warns on third-quarter ad revenue softness.”

(It isn’t amount time after all.  It’s about money.)

I may have to toss in some T&A once in a while, lol.

The Weekend Kim Card

In response to Trump’s threats of military action, North Korea’s leader calls him deranged and issues a warning.

We worry about Kim’s chi.

Military affairs whiz warhammer offers this:

It’s more than ironic that Kim, the man who looks like he popped straight out of a Dilbert comic strip, the man who executes his enemies in novel barbaric ways, who rapes teenaged sex slaves and who lives in the richest opulence while destitute North Korean people are starving, calls Trump ‘deranged.’  There is a definite ‘wow’ factor with this story.

<http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41356836>

A year ago, I’d have wagered Kim was all bluster and no punch.  Now, with a nascent deplorable nuke arsenal at his disposal, Krazy Kim may actually believe the propaganda he is vomiting out.  I hold out hopes that Seal Team 6 has a sniper who has a special bullet with Kim’s name on it.  (I still think China is pulling Kim’s strings).

The Chicoms, meantime, are still supporting the North: Trump Said China Told Banks to Stop Dealing With North Korea. China Says That’s Not True.

I’ve often wondered if the Chinese and the Clintons used the same PR outfit?

CNN offers: What is a hydrogen bomb and can North Korea deliver one?  For the UrbanSurvival audience, we already know.  But do you know what fogbank is?  If you do, THEN you get to wear the big-boy policy pants.

10-gold star bonus, too, if you understand a quip about a Kanata and fogbank. That’d make you a peer.  (Or, was that a pear…hmmm…)

Uber vs. the Crabby Cabbies

Uber Loses Its License to Operate in London/

Do We Really Care? Department

Dump truck runs over worker inside of portable toilet.

Who are the world’s richest women? My son, still single, should read this, lol.  Elaine and I are coming up on 18-to-life in three months.

Romanian leader cancels visit to Ukraine over language law.  Think if we had Americanized Engrish-only, it could slow our immigrant flow?  Thinking out loud, here…but seems to work for Ukraine.  And aren’t they good guys this week?

First UN expert on gender identity resigns.  Doesn’t say where it’s going.

Syrian refugee in Estonia jailed for setting wife on fire.  Word is, she was hot.

Elsewhere, German court sends ax attacker to psychiatric hospital.  Germanic jutice?

The Best for Last

Mass global extinction that wipes out human civilization will begin in 2100, mathematician predicts.

That gives us only 83-more years to exploit one-another.  Hop to it!

Coping: Fall’s When to Vacation!

Yep…the “little darlings” are back in the [brain] washing stations learning how to be social just-us warriors.  And that means they are off the streets and campgrounds are quiet again.  Yes sir!

I mentioned last week that my buddy Gaye (SurvivalWooman) and her hubby (SurvivalHubby) (who looks a tad like Hulk Hogan, come to think of it) had gone out and bought one of those fancy “tear-drop” trailers to be pulled around by their Subaru.

This morning, she graces us with how the “first time out” went…

(Continues below)

 

So here, without further…from the Arizona uplands, here’s her report…

George,

We had a blast while camping, mostly due to the people we met.  It was like the old days on the boat in a marina.

On the other hand, it was damn cold (much colder than Payson) and very rainy.  We had also bought a tent and set it up (easy-peasy – this one https://www.costco.com/CORE-6-person-Instant-Cabin-Tent-.product.100341698.html) and considering we had never set up a tent before, it went together in less than 30 minutes.  We purchased a porta-potty and kept it in the tent for midnight runs so we would not have to go to the public “vault” toilets which were down the road.

All told, all of my prepper gear meant we were well equipped.  The only things we had purchased were the aforementioned tent, porta-potty, high end (meaning sturdy) cooler and water jug.  The first night we prepared Mountain House Chili Mac for dinner along with a bag of salad.  The second night we were exhausted after drinking too much wine with our neighbors in a motorhome while staying warm around a campfire.  I had some fruit and Shelly had cookies – we called it a night and went to bed at 9PM.  Just like old people.

Our teardrop is a T@G XL ( not a T@B).  The weight is about 1100 pounds and the Subaru had no issues.  Because it is so well balanced, you could hardly tell we were towing.  We did opt for electronic brakes which set us back another $1K but well worth it.  Note:  The “Outback” version comes with the electronic brakes on the trailer but we still would have had to put the controller on the Subaru.  The other features did not interest us so we passed on the Outback and went with the T@G XL which is the 6 foot wide version of the teardrop.  The T@B teardrop is larger and as I recall, almost double the weight.  At first I considered the T@B but is was a lot more money (about $23K base) plus too tall to fit in our garage.  The other thing I discovered after the fact is that it would be a bummer to have our galley inside the trailer.  The outdoor kitchen on the T@G is awesome!

Comfort wise it was okay.  Instead of bedding, I had a new, never used double sleeping bag that was perfect except for the fact that Shelly and Tucker practically pushed me out the door in the middle of the night.  They hogged all of the room.

Lessons learned:

Pick your campsite carefully.  We let the host assign a campsite to us based on ease of backing in and proximity to toilets and water.  We could have picked out own site and should have.  Our site was all dirt and not grass, plus the table and chairs were right on the road.  I would have preferred them behind the trailer.

When picking the campsite, scope out the toilet facilities and camp close to the nicer ones.  Ours were smelly and dark whereas some facilities in other parts of the campground were newer, larger, brighter, and odor free.  We marked them as well as the grassy campsites on a map so we could make better choices the next time.

Don’t assume the weather at 7700 feet will be the same as the weather at 5000 feet only 30 miles away.  We now know to check the Forest Lakes, AZ weather forecast before heading up to the Rim.

Next time:

We drove around the area to scope out other campgrounds in the area.  There is one that has electrical hookups and showers.  I am not embarrassed to admit that we plan to make reservations at that site for next June.  That said, there is another campground with views of the lake (no power) and because I want the convenience, plan to get a small generator so we can use the AC (if needed) and my hair straightening iron.  In addition, although the propane stove and French press worked well, I would love to bring a small coffee pot.

Both Shelly and I purchased Lifetime Senior Passes to the National Park Service before the price went up last month (we only needed one for two of us but at $10, we each got one).  This brought out campsite fee down to just $11 per night.  What a fantastic deal.

Originally, we had planned to go out again this week but it is too cold.  Had I known then what I know now, we would have waited until next year before purchasing the teardrop but oh well.  At least we now know what to expect and can be good-to-go in May or June next year.  Reservations at the various sites open up six months in advance so one bonus from having taken this trip is we can make our reservations right around the first of the year and secure the primo campsites.

One thing is certain:  with all of the prepper gear we have, we did not lack for much while camping out in the wilderness.  More pointedly, we took way too much stuff.

Best.

Gaye

Well, now…fine looking rig there!  I was going to recommend that they not put it all up for the “season” too quick.  I mean, why not plan a little road trip down to Ensenada?  Kidding!  Kidding!

Since we’ve all be pals for 40-years now, I ought to check with SurvHub to see what size gun rack he wants me to tool up in the shop.  Never can tell about those wild uplands.

When they were alive,  my parents always loved this time of the year to get out and so some serious vacationing.  Not the forced march kind of Irma and Harvey.  I mean the kind where you go up to the northeast and then drive north until you see trees dropping leaves.

Here in a week, or so, my old COO from the software days and his wife have rented a 42-foot barge and they will be sitting back with coffee and a wood (or coal) stove on the barge watching the colors come along in the Northeast.  Not a school kid in sight, daytimes.

In a week and a half, my consigliere is coming down for a stopover on his way to Cancun (braver than me, lol).  While here, since he’s one of those executive condo-dwellers, we’ll get him into the spirit of the season:  I figure just so’s he doesn’t get out of practice, we’ll fire him up a leaf blower.

Yes!  Fall is for camping and adventuring.  I’m starting to eye used RV’s on Craigslist.  No, not another project until we finish up a few.  Figure I might be able to sell one to Elaine if I get a 36-28 Class A (oldie) and put a Hilton logo on the front of it.

I’ve washed diapers in cold rivers in fall and winter in six states,” she reminded me when I broached the topic again.  “But you know, darling, what fun Gaye and Shel are having…Are you sure we don’t want to get a used RV and customize it…like we have the property.  Winters here, summers in upland Arizona?  fishing…hiking…”

No thanks.  We’re old enough to start doing a few things in style.”

I thought about the “Yeah, but where’s the pride of doing instead of check-writing, in that?”

Instead, I agreed, handed over the remote and called it a day.

Golden words of family wisdom popped to mind,  “He who begs and runs a way, lives to beg another day.  And doesn’t lose half in a settlement.”

Yes, dear…whatever you say, darling…

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Fed Stands Pat; Redeeming Mugabe

No surprise to the Fed decision Wednesday. Why do anything when nothing will work?

So, as we figured, they didn’t do anything other than yammer about inflation target this, expectations that.  The usual stuff. Blah, blah, blah.

What matters, though, is how much money is being made up.  Modern Monetary Theory – which I call the Robert Mugabe school of economics – holds that if you print just the right amount TOO MUCH money, things will work out well.  Further consideration of Mugabe’s approach is warranted as it may yield insights into how the Fed (and the RoW/G20) are playing the game these days.

(Continues below)

 

While I am a multi-billionaire in Zimbabwe dollars, the bad news is laid out in this Wikipedia note that explains why I can’t by so much as a new Hyundai with all that dough:

“From 1991 to 1996, the Zimbabwean Zanu-PF government of president Robert Mugabe embarked on an Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP) that had serious negative effects on Zimbabwe’s economy. In the late 1990s, the government instituted land reforms intended to evict white landowners and place their holdings in the hands of black farmers. However, many of these “farmers” had no experience or training in farming.[5] From 1999 to 2009, the country experienced a sharp drop in food production and in all other sectors. The banking sector also collapsed, with farmers unable to obtain loans for capital development. Food output capacity fell 45%, manufacturing output 29% in 2005, 26% in 2006 and 28% in 2007, and unemployment rose to 80%.[6] Life expectancy dropped.[7]

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe blamed the hyperinflation on economic sanctions imposed by the United States of America, the IMF and the European Union.[8][9] These sanctions affect the government of Zimbabwe,[10] and asset freezes and visa denials targeted at 200 specific Zimbabweans closely tied to the Mugabe regime.[11] There are also restrictions placed on trade with Zimbabwe, by both individual businesses and the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control…”

Still, Mugabe is still there, although being born in 1926, he’s getting up there.  I feel a certain kinship with Mugabe – he just had cataracts out this year.  Welcome to the club!

Mugabe’s little experiment in managed hyperinflation was run more quickly than how things are rolling here in the (former) Land of the Brave, Home of the Taxed.

If you read the Federal Reserve’s H.6 money stocks report, you’ll find that M2 (cash, demand deposits, and very short term CDs and such) is up 5.4 percent, compared with year-ago levels.

Confused why this matters?

(About here, Ure’s personality begins to shift into his ‘nutty professor modality’…)

(Taking a huff of the china board market, Ure stumbles clumsily to the board and begins scrawling…)

See here?  Year-on-year inflation is…uh… (he clicks a projector!)

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent.”

“Yah shee dah mish-tree? (he huffs again) “Zhizts pretty simple, really: 5.4 percent minus 1.9 percent means the current rate of real deflation is 3.5 percent!”

A hush fell over the assembled multitude…then a collective gasp as Professor Ure lurched away from the board in search of his coffee cup.  A huge swig later he continued…

Yah shee, where’d the mishing money go?” 

Several students found his transition from an addled drunkard huffing china board markers to a half-way good Humphrey Bogart impression, quite commendable.

Suddenly the Professor shook himself violently, stood fully erect and appeared to have been possessed by sudden sobriety.

I’ll tell you where the money went:  Part of it went into paying interest since America rents its money from Banksters.  Then a big pile of it went those dead pools of capital in New York and Greenwich.  And whatever is left – which will be a bunch next year, especially, will be used by the Fed to buy-down it’s own balance sheet.

A hand went up in the audience. “How’zzat gonna work, boss?”

See this circle, ” he said drawing on the board. “Let’s say this is a pile of leftover paper securities from the Housing bubble.  Maybe it’s never been marked to market.  How to I get rid of it….anyone?  Hands?”

None went up.

I MAKE UP THE MONEY, give it to you, and then sell you the steamy lumps of crap in the lunch sack in the middle of the circle.  By doing this, we buffer the Mugabe direct-role and we make it all look – when stuff blows up in three- to five years – like it was all the fault of greedy investors, not the Fed or the government, that orchestrated the whole thing.”

Suddenly, a rotten tomato exploded on the china board and began to slide down.  “Get off there old man, no one believes that monetarist stuff.  This is Modern Monetary Theory.  Everyone knows the government serves the people and the Fed is simply saving us from ourselves.”

Yeah, right.  And I’m the Easter BunnyThe only difference between MMT and Mugabe is change rate plus a truckload of AK-47’s.

Professor Ure turned, revealing what looked like a large cotton ball in the middle of his rump.  He hopped twice.

Bitcoin Tells the Future!

The professor wasn’t done yet make an ass…er..bunny…of himself yet.

“We don’t normally talk about this stuff outside of our subscription site – Peoplenomics.com – but here’s something else you can think about while you’re watching your digi-dollars collapse:”  Reach into his pocket another projector slide popped…

“This is what I’m talkin’ about!  See where the Wave E will take us??? This is how we do it in the Big Leagues, except Football which has gone political and fans are dropping out like mad because they want to have one big party instead of a breaking-up nation.  In  fact….uh….did anyone besides me read “Age of first exposure to American football and long-term neuropsychiatric and cognitive outcomes?”

No?  Well….er……where was I?

Oh, yeah.  So you draw in trend channels and then you throw-up Elliott counts and then you throw up again as you see that if we take out the $2,950 area, or so, in Bits, that the hopes of another major wave up are out the window.  Remember, the Chinese moved today’s  BTC hype-fest to Hong Kong because their government isn’t as stupid as ours…”

The crowd stared in silence for what must have been the better part of an hour. One student in the front row passed out, but no one seemed to care.  They were all starting at the chart.

I said it before and I’ll say it again:  Bitcoin is the Millennial and Gen-Z stock bubble of 1929 being replayed in UHD!”

The staring continued for several more minutes before the professor, sensing the effect of coffee on his kidneys, moved to wrap up.

I suppose you’re wondering when I make forecasts how I can be so accurate, right?  I’ll be explaining that using discontinuous nested cycles of climate in Saturday’s morning’s Peoplenomics class.  The rest of you study this morning’s Philly Fed Business Outlook report.”

“The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased 5 points to a reading of 23.8 and has remained positive for 14 consecutive months (see Chart 1). Nearly 39 percent of the firms indicated increases in activity this month; 15 percent reported a decrease in activity. The new orders and shipments indexes also registered an improvement, increasing 9 points and 8 points, respectively. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes were positive for the 11th consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders.”

“I’m going to go work on my next book, now, because this being Rosh Shoshana, it’s a perfect day to work on tertiary resonances of the shofar so if I ever find some friends, we can march around walled cities.  You did know that there are no Trumpets in the Bible?  Shofars…ram’s horns.  Trumpets is made up – a distraction, swills for moderns…. Mor’on the Morrow!”

As the Professor left the podium, and began to run toward the Men’s Room, one student looked at another and remarked “Man, was he ‘out there’ today, or what?”

To which, the student replied “Yeah…sure was.  Heard him telling the disclosure minister that he sold his short position for a gain in the panic gap between the FOMC statement and JanetVision, though.  He may be weird, but I dunno…”

“Hmmm…”

“You read about the uptick in west coast earthquakes out in Washington?”

“Dude, like the nutty professor says, Denial is a Powerful Drug.”

“‘spose so, spose so…”

Eyes on the Fed, Trouble in Retailing

We have a very interesting mix this morning, as we look both at what the charts seem to be telling us and what that says for the future when we toss in some recent developments in retailing.

This may be one of those periods when, if someone pays attention, the market is telling us things.  The art of it all is learning to listen…

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Still Protecting Obama: The Tuesday Dot-Connector

In a shocking revelation that has just appeared in the media in the past 24-hours, we now know the Obama administration wire-tapped Paul Manafort who would become a key Trump campaign official.

But it’s really much worse that it sounds – which for our tastes is crooked enough, already.

Let’s run through some timeline, shall we?

(Continues below)

 

But before we do this, let’s be perfectly clear that the mainstream media is already spinning the bejeezus out of this.  Let me explain how:  Notice the typical headline on the story: US government wiretapped former Trump campaign chairman.

That, dear reader, is spin of the highest order.  Remember who the president was?  Notice how HIS name – as the decision-maker in chief – is not attached to this revelation?

Still, the fact is, one of his minions – turned the government machinery loose on a key republilcan.

To the players and timeline then:

Prior to the 2014 decision to wiretap Manafort, he would have been likely considered a “political enemy” of the democratic steamroller (the one that ran over Bernie, remember?).  His Wikipedia bio explains why:

Paul John Manafort Jr. (born April 1, 1949[1]) is an American lawyer, lobbyist and political consultant. He joined Donald Trump’s presidential campaign team in March 2016 and served as campaign manager from June to August 2016. He was previously an adviser to the U.S. presidential campaigns of Republicans Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Bob Dole. In 1980 Manafort co-founded the Washington, D.C.-based lobbying firm Black, Manafort & Stone, along with principals Charles R. Black Jr., and Roger J. Stone. In 1984 it was renamed Black, Manafort, Stone and Kelly (BMSK) & associates, after Peter G. Kelly was recruited.

From this, we can assume that a) Manafort is smart (at least enough so to pass the Bar) and b) he was a leading back of the ticket republican.

In 2014, Manafort was on the wrong side of the EU/US deal-making that was designed to “take-down” the existing government of Ukraine and turn what had been a soft- frontier into what is not a focal point of NATO’s head-on with Russia over the warm water ports – which the EU (and the bungling nest of neocons at State) lost.

Pissed, the FBI went to the FISA court for reasons that are murky.  But we notice that Slate reported “For a judge to grant the warrant, the FBI doesn’t need to show evidence of a crime, but it must show that the individual may be working as a foreign agent.

Fast-forward to early/mid 2016 and with nothing criminal in hand, the Manafort investigation is shelved.

Then an odd thing happened in Phoenix:  Bill Clinton met with then attorney general Loretta Lynch.  June 27, 2016, with the pertinent details summarized here.

As short while later, lo and behold, the investigation of Manafort is fired-up again.  It ran until early this year.

At issue are allegations that “inauthentic” accounts were used in social media to buy ads.  It is also reported that Manafort may expect to be indicted, shortly.

In addition, other persons associated with Manafort may be involved.  But since Trump cut ties with Manafort, we expect that the sitting president will be “spared.”

What has never made sense to me, until this morning, is why would the disheveled remnants of a once-organized political party (the republicans, what’s left of ’em) be inclined not to squash the Robert Mueller “fishing expedition.”

The “let the dem’s clean up their own mess” theory would also explain why James Comey just before the election, announced a slew of reasons that would have ended in Jailhouse Orange for anyone but She who we don’t care for.

But now, as we connect the dots, it looks like the democrats – having abused state power – are being given the opportunity (and perhaps a couple of sacrificial pawns to take off the table) so they can clean up their own mess.

As part of the “deal” – never articulated, of course, the trade-off would be that Trump gets to hold office, and Hillary avoids jump suit orange.

The myth of “Government by the People, for the People,” is maintained and the republic for which we stand moves along.

EXCEPT!

To do all this, the US media has been corrupted at its core.  So, in this regard, we are anxiously awaiting what comes next from Project Veritas because you can “WATCH: James O’Keefe Teases ‘Biggest Ever Media Investigation’ — Muses ‘People Will Be Fired’.

It would be laughable, a bad novel plot at best, except when it happens IRL (in real life) to a Nation we all love and deeply wish to perpetuate, t’ain’t so much fun to dot-connect.

Sports figures, and football ninnies, and the sanctuary state of California, notwithstanding.

Follow the Laws or Lose Your Dough?

Speaking of which, a bill which would turn Kalifornia into a sanctuary state is on its way to guvBrown for signing.  I have no doubt he will.

This is another priceless novel plot:   Behold as the Nation of Laws Myth hits the rocks with this.

The laws on illegal immigration at the Federal level are clear.  Will the left-coast revolutionaries holding office side with antifa and become a breakaway state?

Would Trump cut federal funding to Kalifornia?  Since we don’t have a political party in Washington, anymore, no telling what the Fools on the Hill would do.

If the Feds cut Kalifornia money, there go income tax revenues and here comes AmRev2.

All madness on bordering and 30 years of bordering on madness.

Libretto di Market

I have to admit a certain queasiness Monday as the ,market torpedoed those short position ETF shares Ure’s truly was holding overs the weekend as part of his “Kim Put” strategy outlined in Peoplenomics last weekend.

By the end of the day, though, the market got off the snort of breakfast blow and returned to reasonable.  As it came down, our short position slid six-cents into the green.

Say, here’s a “downer in the wings:” CoreLogic Reports a 16.9 Percent Year-Over-Year Increase in Mortgage Fraud Risk in the Second Quarter of 2017.  We have to wonder what the Equifax mess will add to future trends?

Dow was set to open up 20, earlier.  But, that’s just trading noise.  The real move will be tomorrow.  Fed decision in the afternoon and then Rosh Hashanah starts tomorrow evening.  We expect a sell-off, but hope springs eternal in the hearts of bears.

Since I am still furiously writing on my next book (Dimensions Next Door) I can only point you to the January 2007 issue of VibrationData for the primary frequency and spectral analysis of the shofar.  That’s a horn made of a large goat’s horn…nice work there!

Housing Drop?

Hot off the press release:

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,300,000. This is 5.7 percent (±2.0 percent) above the revised July rate of 1,230,000 and is 8.3 percent (±1.6 percent) above the August 2016 rate of 1,200,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 800,000; this is 1.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the revised July figure of 812,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 464,000 in August.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,180,000. This is 0.8 percent (±9.6 percent)* below the revised July estimate of 1,190,000, but is 1.4 percent (±8.9 percent)* above the August 2016 rate of 1,164,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 851,000; this is 1.6 percent (±9.0 percent)* above the revised July figure of 838,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 323,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,075,000. This is 10.2 percent (±12.3 percent)* below the revised July estimate of 1,197,000, but is 3.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the August 2016 rate of 1,040,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 724,000; this is 13.3 percent (±14.7 percent)* below the revised July rate of 835,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 348,000.

As luck would have it, the Universe provides a housing stimulus plan called?

Hurricane Maria

Whopping Puerto Rico next:

Cat 5 now…

Current Account Deficit

Press release festival?

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $123.1 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2017 from $113.5 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.4 percent in the first quarter.

Old saying:  The harder we work, the behinder we get.  See the growing hole on GOODS?

Baby Steps to Local Amazon Shops?

More on this in Peoplenomics tomorrow, but did you notice Kohl’s to accept Amazon returns in 82 stores?

Wal-Mart online returns are already accepted in the local stores…as the battle for the “halfway house” (online and bricks) design continues to heat up.

Let’s Make a Deal candidate? Toys ‘R’ Us files for bankruptcy in US.  Maybe they didn’t get the memo:  Kids don’t have toys anymore.  They just grab mommy or daddy’s phone….appropos.

U.S. Department of Useless

When we’re not trying to hack space-time, or out-calculate the HFT’s, we are endlessly entertained by useless “news” that supports our contention that the world has too little original research and far too much news “channel capacity.”

Among our picks today:

Winter Olympics 2018: British Bobsleigh to withdraw funding for women’s team.  We’ll just watch the video of Cool Runnings, then.

Kaepernick: I’m ‘ready right now’ to play…  After what he did to the game?  GMAFB.

Again Time magazine amazes us with their broadening view of “news” with their story Here’s the First Look at Alicia Vikander as the New Lara Croft.

I may have to create a new category for them and Fox:  T&N.  News being the second word…

Far too much fun this morning.  I’m going to go put bamboo shoots under my fingernails now…moron  the ‘morrow…

Coping: The Dog Ate My Contacts

Oh, my.  Reader Kirk caught Mr. Ure’s half-blind, 3/4 stupid math error Monday.  The correct answer is the market Aggregate is up 3.3367% from the all-time highs set (and this time I looked up the date:) Week of April 10, 2015.

About here, had I been elected Divine Ruler of the Planet, one of my briefers (probably Guido) would come over and explain “What’s the Divine whozzits is trying to say is we’re all working our asses off for nuttin.”  Guido, trained in the fine art of night-sticking, can be mighty convincing.

The error, as it turns out, was likely due to not having enough coffee and writing a column without putting my contacts in.

(Continues below)

 

I don’t think I’ve ever described the “back end” of what makes Urban and Peoplenomics tick.  I’ve got a yuge collection of data.  Each with a point, or so we hope.

The Global Index, from which the errant number was pulled, is 18 sheets and charts, and the largest worksheet is 1056 cells, each representing only a closing weekly number.  Then come 24-columns of internal calculation.  And that’s just the weekly and just the Global.

The U.S. Aggregate is a little different: 26 sheets and charts.  The tallest is probably the 1896 to January 1950 Dow numbers. 16,287 cells tall.

The U.S. Aggregate will turn 1,000 cells tall next week by 19 cells wide.

Not all of it gets published, but I will, for example, use some of the historical data to compare what seem like similar market periods.

The Daily Aggregate is only 11 sheets and charts, but very small in comparison.  193 cells tall by only four columns wide.  Except it’s really wider because there are certain moving averages that are calculated (and updated) and there’s also an automatic “George Check” that looks like this between columns:

LONG.”

Which I am presently ignoring. Delusion runs deep.  The market rally suggests “buy the rumor, sell the news” as the Fed gavels in today.

But I wanted to apologize for getting a number wrong.  We don’t do that often and feel badly when we do.  In this case, it was not a tradable number, but we do our dead-level best.

Next week, I plan to put the (miserable, scratchy) contacts back in.  Yes, I can see better with them, but it’s like walking about with sand in your eye, even scaling into their use gently.

I wish I could say “The Dog ate my contacts.”  But that would be a lie.

It was the cat.

A Report from the Front

I have mentioned on many occasions my respect for my brother-in-law’s work with the Mormon Church (LDS).  Especially this past weekend when he went down with a group from the local “stake” to work in Port Arthur helping the poorest part of the Houston area in recovery efforts.

There was no shortage of heartbreak, he reported.  People literally lost everything they had, save the clothes on their backs.

But that’s not the worst of it.  Apparently, there are some sleazy insurance companies who have sold “flood” insurance that are telling the poor “We won’t pay because this is just a rain, not a flood…

What the double-victims are being told is that their polices would have paid IF there had been WIND driven water.  But this was rain, so the ways the (sleazy rot-in-hell) lawyers are reading their own finely crafted insertions, they can skate.

I asked him if there was anyone looking out for the poor on this, but his answer was, sadly, the expected.  No one cares for the poor.

There’s another part of Post-Harvey madness that people don’t seem to realize.  Before FEMA will come and look over a home for damage, you have to move EVERTHING in the house out into the yard.  Yeah, right.  Where it can be stolen, vandalized, and broken…and then just hope the FEMA people come that day.

The worst of it, though, reserved for the poor people who have inhabited their family homes for perhaps have a century, but now don’t have clear title to the property.  You didn’t know?  One of the greatest scams on the poor is to find people who are not financially able to fight and place a lien on their home.  Over time, you see, the sleazeballs who do this can “hold up” people when comes time to sell a home.

Sure, people like you and me?  Get my lawyer on the phone.  But when you don’t have money, and you’re not a racial majority, and it’s a disaster?  You take what you get.

That ain’t right, but as my brother-in-law reports, its the front-line religious groups (and LDS had 200 semi’s in OKC pointed south and staged to roll even before the storm hit).  Disaster relief is what they do…superbly. FEMA should work so well.

The BiL will probably be by later this week, and maybe I can pass on more.

But for now,  the main thing to understand is that the jerks and slime of the world are still busily screwing over the poor, even those freshly beggared by disaster.

If you still believe the quaint notion that “all men and women are inherently good”?  Sign up for frontline disaster work where the real victims are:  The ones without the where-with-all to check into a hotel and wait for checks. Or to call a lawyer and rip someone to shreds for even thinking of screwing with you.

Curious to me how the mainstream media revolutionaries can bash the President every day of his term. But to use the power of the press for good?  To haul insurance companies into the Court of Public Opinion?

Then again, maybe they know who really runs the world.

Money. Big Money.  The kind neither one of us has.

OK, speaking of which, of to play Fed-Spotting.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Fehu Monday, Merkstave Tuesday?

WTF?

Hang on, bub.  Simple stuff, really:  What it means (for those familiar with Elder Futhark runes), is that our symbol du jour today would be the Fehu.  Which approximates cattle or great wealth.  Neander bling?  Uh…well…yes.  There was a time before E-Trade….

Tomorrow, ahead of a Fed decision on rates Wednesday (no change) we expect the market to “merstave” which is a “reversing sign” usually more negative than the first meaning.  Rough translation from neader-deutsche?  Up at the open, but no one is safe until the Janet speaks her piece Wednesday after the rate decision.

(Continues below)

 

This opening bias today, up 50 on the Dow futures, but less than half that on a percentage basis for the essenpee (<–new term, yes you can use it!) means to us that the BIG boyz are trying to drive prices up because post-Fed we could have a nice decline.

Or not.

In Peoplenomics Saturday, we discussed the concept of the “Kim Put” – which is where the markets drop Friday, then have a nice paint job rally Monday when we make it through a weekend, like this past one, where we do NOT blow up North Korea.

Today, president Bashed will speak at the U.N.  He tweeted today about NK’s “rocket man.”  Bash-media is having a field day.

But with Reuters noting Futures higher as North Korea tensions ease, we think the Kim Put notion we laid out this weekend is pretty interesting and, as usual, coming into view for others now.

The G20 Lie: Why We “Roll Our Own”

To be sure, there are lots of headlines around proclaiming that “global stocks” have reached new highs, or words to that effect.

While that is nominally true, there’s a missing piece of the puzzle:  What I call the G20 Lie.

On the Peoplenomics.com side, we track something called the “global index.”  Basically, it’s an equal-dollar summation index of multiple global markets.  U.S., Hong Kong, Germany…there’s a list.

Now feast your eye on this corner of one of our charts:

This corner begins late 2014 through present and it shows us that while the Global markets have indeed gone higher than mid 2015, they have only exceeded that old peak by a lousy 145-points.

Now let’s look at the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator. Just to have kept up with US admitted inflation, we need to have passed 35,371.  Which, oh by the way, we have but barely.  We’re locked in a no-grow, no go world.

What’s really going on is a phenomenon I call “Global Synchronized Inflation.”  The G20 are the perps, the US is an unindicted co-conspirator, and all the rest.

In short, the G20 is living The Big Lie, namely that if you make up enough “believable money” people will keep on living in the globally bankrupt state.  As long as it doesn’t dawn on anyone that it’s all a sham and farce, the band plays on while the Titanic takes on water.  As in watering down your purchasing power.

This is why, although the market is at all-time highs, you haven’t noticed a big pop in your standard of living.  By carefully orchestrating distractions (social justice, bashing Trump, pumping up racism, fighting many wars, not fixing our social ills, not balancing the budget, and least of all, by-gawd, not doing anything about the healthcare cost disaster and that whole pack of lies) you will be so busy on Hatebook and hanging on ever utterance of Colbert-think that the 900-pound elephant in the room (declining quality of life) will remain in-noticed.

(No everyone shares our views on Colbert: Review: Colbert Aside, Inclusive Winners Made for a Refreshing, Sharp Emmys…iz’zat what’cha call politicization of the Arts now?)

On a global average, if you have a household income of $100,000, you’re making (pre-tax) about $250 more per year than you were two years ago.  That was before Obamacare and higher taxes on most everything, so odds are very good that you’re lifestyle is rolling backwards./

My, ain’t it grand?

Why, I bet you feel 100% better now, don’t you?

Pay it no mind; our lot  in Life is not to be members of the Ruling Class.  We’re just here to shovel the stables, be cannon fodder, and get the table scraps.

Which is why today may feel like a Monday.

Distractions

If you head hurts, might we recommend?

Memorize The complete list of Emmy winners.  Rule the water cooler talk!

Take up a collection and buy a magazine: Rolling Stone magazine up for sale.

Learn a new language: Sisvel obtient le droit exclusif d’octroyer des licences pour les brevets de Funke Digital basés sur la technologie de moteur de recommandations.

Oh, and speaking of IP: China plans 4-month crackdown to protect foreign investors’ intellectual property rights.  Like the transmutation of base metals into gold, believe it when you really see it…

Foreshadowing Our Next Book?

World first: ‘Storing lightning inside thunder’

Worth Your Time

Reading the Independent Press Standards Organization (UK) decision about a widely quoted article on climate change here.

The 900 pound elephant is still heat islanding…sheesh.

And, if You Missed It:

Delayed weaning reduces behavioral problems in cats. If it works for cats, might it work for dogs and, oh, humans?


Housing starts and trade data tomorrow.  We can hardly wait.

Now, go and earn a taxable income.  Millions on Social Security appreciate it.  Oh, wait…Millions on Welfare appreciate it. (Restated so the SJW’s – social Justus warriors can support it…)