New ATHs: Excuse My Victory Dance…

I was right.

Not just a little bit right…but a nice big fat “KAH-CHING” on the cash register right when I called for the market to make new highs.

That might not be so “special” if I’d made the call at the bottom of the BREXIT drop.

No, this was a call I very publicly pronounced on Coast To Coast AM with George Noory way back in January.

If you can remember that far back (Huperzine-A and Gingko may help), that was when the charlatans we all trying to “out-fear” one another with calls for imminent collapse of the global empire.

Ure was right, They – the whole stinking lot of them charlatans – were wrong. So this morning I get to take a bow and natter on for a minute about honesty and method. 

Eventually, they will be right.  But in the real world, we’re not trading 2017 yet except and options and LEAPs and we’re quietly note taking on premiums.

The first thing I would point out is that I was precisely RIGHT on the Price we would reach – new record highs.

The second thing I would offer is that when you are doing serious analytics, you can usually only be right in one dimension – and the only one that counts with me is the price domain. That is where the “kah-ching” sound comes from…and it is music to our ears.

That said, I had anticipated the new All-Time Highs would be arriving about late May and yet here we are, a bit over a third of the way into July before I get to “ring the bell.”

I got the time domain wrong.  But at least I can afford the liquid liniment.

My third offering to you is that a honest future-predictor is usually willing to share some of the key parts of his work. On our www.peoplenomics.com side, there are two rather interesting spreadsheets: brainamp.xls is more interesting than DepressionPricer.xls, but both have their uses.

The brainamp.xls is based on simply taking “typical” wave relationships and putting them into a useful context so that a knowledgeable (and crazy risk-taking mad trader like…um…me) can pencil out where the next move in the markets should be if normal wave relationships hold up.

And often enough, they do.

As always, I don’t offer specific trading advise, but let’s just say the small trading account I play with makes enough money to pay for avgas and maintenance now and then.

The hell of it is anyone can do it. But it requires a bit of mental discipline. There’s a software package which is popular in the small studio world called “ReWire” – and that’s how most people’s thinking needs to be mod’ed.

ReWire is a software protocol and the Wikipedia description of it contains this:

“The ReWire system consists of “Mixers”, “Panels”, and “Devices”. Mixers are the host applications which typically do the sequencing at one end and the final mixdown at the other end. A Device is a dynamic link library that only generates sound; it has no user interface. A Panel is a graphical interface for setting the parameters of one Device. A typical setup would be to use Ableton Live in “Mixer” mode, and use Propellerhead Reason as a synthesizer. In this case Reason would provide Device/Panel pairs to Ableton, which could then send midi commands, sync timing and mix Reason’s output into its own effects chains. Many applications support either mode. In fact, an application could (at the discretion of a developer) act as both a Mixer and a Panel at the same time.”

Although there is not a direct ReWire going on down in the prehensile brain, people do have an ability to recognize certain aspects of pattern relationships even if they are not able to articulate them.

Long-time readers will remember my early attempts to “articulate” when I took a people of market trading in 2006, mapped the S&P 500, the Dow 30, and the NASDAQ composite and normed them to a MIDI channel.

The result (click for 26 seconds of music of the market) was a way of hearing, more than “seeing” relationships on a graph.

In a lot of way, evolving a “method” for looking at the market is very much like populating a good Digital Audio Workstation (DAW) with VST plug-ins.

I shouldn’t have to explain that VST’s are small code segments that are part of Virtual Studio Technology, nor should I have to explain the parallel to investment analysis by means of our Substitution Method of Learning.

Still, for those not keeping up with the class the ReWire for success in markets may will be the few of us out here on the ragged edge of thinking who believe that since computers are brain amplifiers, we should be able to build a pretty good set of VIT (Virtual Investment Technology) that (like VSTs in DAWs) will let us easily test and simulate various musical, technical, and wave structure relationships.

Oh, it’s a damned odd way of looking at markets, alright. And purely arbitrary whether you map the “grand piano” synth to the Dow or the S&P.

But when you are able to behold a critical moving average, in the context of the larger waves, and seek the musical relationships between “notes”?

Well that, my friend, is music to our ears. And we ReWire it as the “kah-ching” sound.

The South China “Seize”

It has gone before an international court and the ruling says no to Chinese expansionist designs north of Taiwan.

Our former oak leaf cluster consultant on such militaria is code-named |warhammer| and he offers some grist:

“The Hague just issued a unanimous ruling against China’s S. China Sea territorial ambitions:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-36771749

The stage is now officially set for amped-up military confrontation between the U.S., members of the ANZUS treaty, other S. China Seas nations and the International Court over the Dragon’s construction of artificial islands upon what were formally pristine coral reefs. China is widely expected to not back down and, in fact, continue its regional island expansion plans.

It is an understatement to say things could dicey in the coming months. Much depends upon showing firm resolve against China’s expansionist tendencies. Blink, and China will take advantage of international displays of indecision, just as Putin did with the Ukraine.

Will China try to claim as much territory as possible before the Nobel Peace Prize winning U.S.resident leaves the Oval Office? Stay tuned!”

The outlook on this is absolutely dismal.  It is virtually inconceivable that Obama, who can’t sort out a border with Mexico and enforce it, will be able to fix anything related to China.  And Mr. and Mrs. Clinton, the apparent high-bidders for the WH this fall, masterminded the sales of US super computer technology to China in the 1990’s. 

We have begun to study Mandarin.

One of the critical issues that will now turn around and bite the U.S. on the ass is the progressive-globalist backed export of jobs to everywhere but America. As much as the U.S. would love to be able to halt Chinese expansionism, we don’t have the infrastructure to protect ourselves from Chicago politicians, let alone a nuclear-armed behemoth such as China has become.

This is all, in turn, related to…

China’s Demographic Bomb

We noted a few months back with great interest that China has lit an interesting long-burn time fuse by changing its former One Child policy to what is now Two Children.

An article over here gets into some of the ramifications. Sure, the article is from March, but demographic trends are not “fast-breaking news.” It’s the slow trends that kill….as the current Muslim Reconquista of Europe is demonstrating to all but the slowest of thinkers.

My consigliere – who has been predicting the 2019-2022 period for a major war with China – and I are very concerned with the policy change. What it means is that on the backside of war, China will have manpower for recovery.

The further “West Losing the Sex Race” is augmented by multiculturalism, illegal immigration, the LBGTQRS movement, and more.  We are so, unfruitfully – if you’ll pardon the pun – screwed.

Again, the combinatorial of these factors plus things like al Qaida and ISIS paying fatherhood bonuses, harks back to a certain large global church which, at the peak of its power, denounced birth control.

Sex is a weapon, as most married couples know, at least in passing.

The technology scales remarkably, too.

The World Catching Up

A month or so back, we focused on how Amazon was poised to crush the traditional shopping mall paradigm in America and how Wal-Mart was having to jump headlong into free online shipping to counter Prime days and such.  “Bezos and Betonville: Barbarians at the Mall” is in the Peoplenomics library.

Well, here comes a piece on how Jeff Bezos is hurtling toward world domination.

The only unanswered questions are a) when will AMZN buy Alibaba and b) when will they buy Wal-Mart?

In the showdown-to-come between the haves and globalists on the one side and the nations and local populations on the other, globalism has thrown the “long bomb” and will be able to modulate control of the world quite nicely, thank you.

In this larger commercial context, China and the U.S. government are merely proxies for the larger agenda of a unified global market space.

It al;l has more layers than a Walla Walla Sweet onion. And brings as many tears to patriotic eyes.

Back to the inbox.  Dow futures are up 73.  ReWired that’s “kah-ching.”  A slight dip next week?  Maybe…a gift for those showing up late to the party which could be an all-time short squeeze.

Comments

New ATHs: Excuse My Victory Dance… — 15 Comments

  1. Your prediction matches that of Prechter’s…except that he said it was just as likely to hit the rocks as to canoe smoothly….till the drop over the falls. He also goes into a lot of detail about the ‘Doppler effect’ (my metaphor) for the 16.6-16.9 yr cycle, five 7.25 yr cycles. Uses DJIA/PPI (inflation adjusted DOW) stats instead of plain mkt stats. Also 1929-1949 compared to 1999-20XX. 2016 fits into a lot of the theories for the free fall….

  2. “I was right.

    Not just a little bit right…but a nice big fat “KAH-CHING” on the cash register right when I called for the market to make new highs.”

    George do you find that it is Damn Hard to be humble ….. when you hit it right as much as you do….

    that bad part of the new highs is the ultimate lows that are coming as fast as a freight train..

  3. A well deserved pat on the back for your courage to stay in the market through your May prediction George. You did, didn’t you?

    On China, interesting is it not, how they went ahead and built all those empty cities when the bucks were rolling in. Now to fill them and collect the taxes when they are filled 20 years from now. God forbid our leaders planned past the next election…

  4. Dear Mr. Ure:

    The Chinese are not one people. China is composed of 56 ethnic groups, more than 20 dialects and virtually all religions available on this planet. In addition, not all Chinese are sympathetic to the Communist Party and this is not a front seamless.

    All such divisions may be skillfully exploited by the United States before, during and after a hypothetical war.

    The end of the war may be, most likely, a terrible civil war that ended with the Chinese division of the country into several states hostile to each other.

    I apologize for my bad English ‘I write from Spain- and receive my cordial greetings

  5. George, having been a long term reader of your excellent site, for the most part I admire your views on the world. Today’s article has prompted me to respond with caution…and I say caution because I expect some of my view may be harshly criticized but here it is anyway.

    Living in Australia, we are acutely aware of the growing influence of China with some high profile acquisitions of land/businesses that hasn’t sat well with a lot of people. Personally, I have lived in many countries over my lifetime, including yours and a number of European and Asian countries, and have come to the view that we are all in this together no matter what race or creed. My issue I have with your post is about looking into the mirror…what country has the greatest military presence across the world?…and the most nuclear might? Answer’s pretty easy and it is also easy to justify in our western mind…but does it mean it’s right, let alone pointing fingers at other countries that are doing what the US has been doing for years? Just have a read of John Pilger’s research to be better informed (and BTW, Australia is no saint here either). It has been the way of humanity to position an us vs them mentality but if we are to get ourselves out of the sh%*t that we currently find ourselves in, then we all have to do and think radically differently…finding common ground and a way forward that is in the best interest of our global community may be idealistic but the alternative is too scary and unfortunately potentially too real to contemplate.

  6. As though we didn’t know who was behind this unjustified rise in the stock market. If reality was in place, where would the stock market really be? What bothers me most is that no significant bankster went to prison for their role in creating this mess. I had such high for Obama in 2008 and all he was charged with doing, was to bring along the left and make it look like he wasn’t more of the same. Just like Trump will be. They error in favor of the rich and hand us the bill.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/mystery-who-pushing-stocks-all-time-highs-has-been-solved

    • HMMM…I wonder… isn’t it funny that all of this is happening just at this particular time.. could it be because of the GOP sellout bill is starting in.. first we had the stock market fall so that the one percent would be buying stock at rock bottom prices..then miraculously prices go up so that they can sell to propel their number machine into the next universe..( the real stinker here is.. money is just that.. a piece of paper with a few bankers that say it is valued more than goods and services gold is good in electronics and adornment its to soft for a working metal which is what coinage was to begin with..most lands valued food as their wealth) …
      could this all be happening becaused of the GOP sell out bill that tosses everyone but the one percent under the bus.. If it is then …… wait for it…… its coming…..
      That mean’s my prediction of next spring is still on track for the ultimate collapse sometime after the new administration gets in and they really see the mess we are in…you just can’t print paper or generate numbers at a rate that high and spend that much more daily.. that it won’t come back and bite you.Kind of like living on a credit card.. Of course this is just my opinion.. and what would a bottom feeder see that some really smart people would miss..

  7. The only unanswered questions are a) when will AMZN buy Alibaba and b) when will they buy Wal-Mart?

    To both answers, the answer is ‘no need’.
    IMO, amzn is simply waiting for sears or another home town store to implode so it can move in and use the space for distribution centers and small server farms. Besides, keeping wally around is good for keeping the anti-monopoly guys away.

  8. It’s also notable that the coming commodity price slingshot has been loaded by depression of ALL mining operations globally. I don’t think this is coincidence, as when the stock market tanks from the last run-up, it will likely be caused or at least facilitated by commodity prices surging quietly in the background.

    The demand destruction that is occurring is NOT caused by high prices, but low prices. Low comodity price forces industries into contraction, cannibalism and death by no capital. Oil is just the most readily visible – it is all commodities that have been swimming in the “No Available Capital” Sea, as the people cannot afford ever rising prices globalism brings due to the vampire squid of bankers and the ever-expanding middlemen of regulation and supply chain management.

  9. The only fix for the globalism thing is patience. lobalism cannot function without high debt loads and low oil prices. Oil investment stopped almost 24 months ago, and hasn’t recovered. Lenders are not facilitating credit for the oil guys, and thus they have loaded a price slingshot – as depletion catches up, prices rise and rapidly. This scenario doesn’t even take into account supply disruptions.

    As backup, see: http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/99333/art-berman-coming-moonshot-oil-prices

    The transcript is free.

    You have to ignore any IEA info – the article explains why. You also have to ignore any NOC (national oil company) reserve estimates, as they lie to garner development loans. Both gas and oil are headed for unanswerable prices due to industry inability to respond – demand destruction of exploration and service companies – from rollicking prices.

    There will come a time when repairing is more economical than replacing due to energy input into prices or simply global availability. Today, there are segments where China is the only supplier for many things, even if the quality is low. Fan motors are a great example – 97% of the fans in the world come from China or the electric motors do. Large electrical transformers are another segment people may be familiar with.

    Globalism is why car prices are so high, along with government mandated safety crap. Globalism relies on government assistance in hiding true cost of goods, and hence prices inexorably rise across the board. The transport costs for globalism are masterfully hidden, but high oil prices reveal it, Hense the last “recession” will be small compared to the coming one.

  10. Of course the FED will throw tons of money at the market to keep the game going just like the huge short position they have had against pm’s the past dozen or so years.

    Crooks, all of them. They should be swinging from ropes but we’re all a bunch of stinking weak sheep.

    Give me the ability to create money out of thin air and make slaves out of anyone who wants to borrow it.

    Screw them, i reject them and their system and remain debt free.

  11. The way the markets are designed, gravity “up” is stronger than gravity “down”. When mutual funds and individuals hold strong, market makers work the markets up and interest rates are unattractive, you get gravity “up”. Some are buying and don’t even know why. Every two weeks more 401k money is loaded into the markets by income deductions at payroll time by millions of people.

    My 401k now is in HY Mutual bonds, small bit on small-caps and 3% cash. In my own investments, 30% cash, lots of short-puts sold for income and the rest on equity funds from blue-chip (Vanguard Magellan type) to others. Those positions took a hit in February and now looking good.

    They key to the whole thing is thinking that the market was lowered to let in money from China and Europe in both August 2015 and Jan/Feb 2016. Those large players didn’t want to move money without a big discount for their activity. Now, they run it up. Not many other markets as manipulate-able as this one with an SEC looking away as the main players work their magic and pressure short-sellers into covering.

    I’d like to see S&P 2175-2200 but then I’d be starting to find ways to hedge.

  12. Nations and special interest groups outbreeding each other? Well, the unhappy conclusion to that insanity is the possible end of our species. Scientific studies of animals in closed environments demonstrates that overpopulation outstrips resources and then violence, cannabalism and disease step in to solve the problem. Such is the future of humanity if we continue on our current path. Glad I won’t be here to see it.

    • Mike….where have you been?. George and clif broke up awhile back(2years?) It was shortly after the “The great coastal event”. I still like to hear both of them ramble though. I wonder who got the glass pie pans….