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The World Through Oil Colored Glasses

So what would help you put all the international parts of the Manufacturer's Resource War into  usaeful analytic perspective?  Well, how about a handy "Who has How Much Oil" chart?  Sure.  Then, as we stumble across news stories, we can replace the country name, so easily spun up by the politicos, with the Percent (Low estimate). 

 

First a little data if you will, maestro, which is sourced at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves but to which I have added the percent columns to make it easy to see who has what:

 

Country/Region Lowest estimate Highest estimate Low% High %
North America 50.7 222.9 4.7% 16.5%
Canada 16.5 178.8 1.5% 13.2%
United States 21.3 29.3 2.0% 2.2%
Mexico 12.9 14.8 1.2% 1.1%
Central & South America 76 101.1 7.0% 7.5%
Venezuela 52.4 361.2 4.8% 26.7%
Brazil 10.6 11.2 1.0% 0.8%
Western Europe 16.2 17.3 1.5% 1.3%
United Kingdom 4.1 4.5 0.4% 0.3%
Norway 7.7 8 0.7% 0.6%
Eastern Europe & Former USSR 79.2 121.9 7.3% 9.0%
Russia 60 72.4 5.5% 5.4%
Kazakhstan 9 39.6 0.8% 2.9%
Middle East 708.3 733.9 65.5% 54.3%
Iran 125.8 132.7 11.6% 9.8%
Iraq 115 115 10.6% 8.5%
Kuwait 99 101.5 9.1% 7.5%
Qatar 15.2 15.2 1.4% 1.1%
Saudi Arabia1 261.9 264.3 24.2% 19.6%
UAE 69.9 97.8 6.5% 7.2%
Africa 100.8 113.8 9.3% 8.4%
Algeria 11.4 11.8 1.1% 0.9%
Libya 33.6 39.1 3.1% 2.9%
Nigeria 35.3 35.9 3.3% 2.7%
Asia and Oceania 36.2 39.8 3.3% 2.9%
China 15.4 16 1.4% 1.2%
Australia 1.5 4 0.1% 0.3%
India 4.9 5.6 0.5% 0.4%
Indonesia 4.3 4.3 0.4% 0.3%
World total 1082 1350.7 100.0% 100.0%

 

Now comes the interesting part.  We will read today news headlines and replace country names with Oil Reserves Using lower%, but you can write your own using the high% if you're a screaming optimist..  Shall we?

 

 7.3% Blasts 2%  (Putin Blasting US )

In our latest round of "pot calling the kettle black", we find Vlad Putin says the 2% (US) is using almost uncontained force - which he figures will encourage other countries to seek nuclear weapons.  Is this hypocritical on Vlad's part?  I betcha I know the answer if I ask around in Afghanistan, Chechnya, or Belarus...

---

Meantime, the 7.5% (Russians) are also ticked off about the US missile defense plan.  Sergei Ivanov (Russians version of Don Rumsfeld sans aspartame) because says Ivanov, it appears that by placing rockets and interceptor radars in Poland and the Czech Republic, the US would try to shoot down Russian weapons. 

 

Parenthetically, I have to hand it to Ivanov.  He's a 24 kt. whiz kid for figuring this out - I mean the notion that a missile defense system would shoot down missiles launched against the 2% - why that takes at least three brain cells firing in unison.

 

What he's really saying is that ever since the 2% abrogated the ABM treaty in 2001 (an event masked by the shortly following 9/11 events and the subsequently spun up economy-salvaging War on Terror) 7.3% has been worried that the 2% would make "defensive" claims all the way to the 7.3%'s Kremlin gates.  It's to the 7.3% way of thinking the corporate-capitalist running out of oil version of Lebensraum, Hitler's pre WW II "rationale" for pushing its borders to include other countries including Poland.

 

Not like the 2% are the first to push - it's just a retooled, updated version of Manifest Destiny 1.0. The public-generated knowledgebase over at Wikipedia lists a large number of "Expansionist movements in other countries" including:

So, the 7.3% version of Rumsfeld-now-Gates isn't comfortable.  On the other hand, with kids in Seattle, I'm not especially comfortable with 7.3% nuke subs prowling just off the 200 miles limit, either.  Sure, you've been led to think the Cold War is over, and that's probably true.  But it has been replaced with what we label around here as the "Manufacturer's Resource Wars" and the subs of the Kremlin and our shiny new ABM systems don't particularly care what label the media uses to sum up the situation to a dumbed down public.

 

The fact is that we're still populating our way toward a die-off of planetary proportions, and there are only a few ways to play it:  Get sustainable (our personal choice which is why we're on a ranch in East Texas) or get dead.  Won't happen overnight, but the Petri dish is fully populated and the oil-agar is not being replenish as fast as the bacterial humans are scarfing it up. Plain as day, although the quibbling over rates makes your People's Economist a bit cranky at times.

 

Obviously, this has an economic outcome (which is ostensibly what this site is about) and that's why I try to connect a few dots each day so people who trip over their own awaken consciousness can be assured "Nope, you're not the only one who recognizes that the world is nuts."  A non-crazy world might be run by the most highly evolved humans - spiritually, intellectually, and especially intuitively.  But we get what?  Bankers pulling the strings for profits!

 

Say, did I mention 666, end times, and banksters meeting this weekend?

 

Strange?  What's Strange?

I can't tell you how many readers noticed that the price of gold closed the week at $666.70 by Kitco's chart number above. The reason figures one Reuters report is that world financial figures are meeting this weekend - and no one is safe when the banksters huddle behind closed doors.  Yup, they didn't invite the People's Economist again, nor did they invite the time monks.  The 666 price should only worry people who live in the moment.  The futures price is above $670.  But I digress...

 

2% Blames 11.6% for its War failures in 10.6%, Says 11.6%

Or, in other words, the headline is "US Blaming Iran for Iraq Failures, says Iran's ambassador to the UN.

---

Meantime, 2% says 11.6% supplying bombs to uncooperatives in 10.6%.

---

And you know, 11.6% is telling 2% it will retaliate if attacked.

---

Also moving oil up to the $60 range are cuts in 3.3% (Nigeria).

--

We're still expecting that 2%, or its proxy 0%, will attack 11.6% in 03/2007, and we read that 0% is holding out that option.  The 7.3% are predicting the 2% will go 238/239 before 04/07. too.

 

The numbers put the absurdity into clear perspective, don't they?  I think I'll go out and feed the chickens now.

 

Peoplenomics: Redefining Rich

Do you want to see a huge change in the world - something revolutionary? how about considering what happens to the concept of "rich" when it runs in to limited resources? Let me back up: Last week, a long rumored UN Climate Report came out and said humans were not only largely responsible for climate change, but had every reason to be concerned about it. Then, within days came reports that funded by big oil, academics were offered cash incentives to come up with critiques of the report in advance. All of which would fall to the bottom of our priorities except that it dawned on me that the implications of major climate shift could be dwarfed by something else: a global consciousness shift. One implication? The very definition of the term "rich" may be about to change dramatically.

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Friday February 9, 2007

The "Green death" ahead

OK, if you're really paying attention (as several readers were), you might have implied a connection between yesterday morning's report, where we included this itsy-bitsy clue about events barreling towards us from the future and events later in the day.

"Remember we have a prominent (death), and then a 'green' death to deal with...and what if Pakistan goes rad-islam with nukes? "

The exceptionally bright readers thought the timing was a strange coincidence that within hours of posting this, along comes the headline that Anna Nicole Smith had died and the media has made this THE big headline of the week, a total non-surprise around here.

 

With the "death of prominent person" part fulfilled, we now have to start looking at the "green death" to come and starting trying to sort through what the web bot linguistics might be trying to message.

 

Our problem interpetationally, (if I can create a word at this hour) is just what "green" means.  To review how the future forecasting technology works, millions of public discussion group messages are scanned, forward-directed sentences with keywords of interest are read and 2048 byte snips of postings are emailed to the project's servers.  This data is then sliced and diced in prolog and then thrown as a series of dots into CAD 3D modelspace.  Where a "cloud" of dots (as in 3D scatter chart) move in strange twists and turns, one can do a "reverse look-up" of the dots' hex number, and come up with aspects and attributes of a coming event - in this case, a death which will be "green."

 

This is the frustrating part of the project, at least for me.  The 'time monks' aren't worried about it because in a sense, it keeps the future in the range of probable (implying some degree of malleability of future events) instead of being completely predestined, in which case, free choice is an illusion, and the world becomes a place you Kant imagine.  Joke's on us.

---

All of which is philosophically interesting, but doesn't narrow down the "green" death - likely in March if the swirling dots are being clear.  Close temporally, but not tomorrow or the next day away from the "prominent" passing likely just noted. So, what the heck does "green" mean?  Some ponderings:

 

One possibility is that green could be a reference to "environmental" or a leader/figure/icon of the environmental movement.

 

With all the military activity now (and pending over the next month or two) 'green' might infer something military - as in olive drab/green uniform.

 

Then there's 'green' as in "money" and if this were the case.  If the reference is to green (as in greenbacks) then a key/iconic/leader/architect of finance would seem to be the point.

 

But the one I find most interesting relates to 'green' as in Fulcanelli, a late 19th century master Alchemist, who is closely associated with 'green' as in 'green language' or the 'language of the birds.'  The short version of this is that those who work with the spirit realms, which is where the Great Works take place - something most folks are too buy trying to refi homes to remember - often deal in 'green language'.  This possibility raised here is that the 'green' death could be related to a spiritual/religious/alchemical/church kind of leader of international significance.

 

It's here that I'll stop trying to second-guess the future - nothing's likely to be gained and besides, it'll get here soon enough.  Today there is much to do.  We'll just be the wing nuts with a T-1 and too many lines of code - and pray the future seen is not preordained, and we're not blowing smoke...

 

Whaling Showdown

Lots of other "green" news today: A head-to-head for the Sea Shepherd folks in the Southern Ocean where Japanese whaling continues despite treaties to the contrary. Almost reads like an adventure story.

---

Sir Richard Branson is offering a $25 million prize for figuring the best way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere - joining him was Al Gore.

---

Canada's environment minister has indicated government resistance to the Kyoto Protocols.  Quick, look surprised.  The "have" countries don't like Kyoto, the "have not" countries do.  Sort of like the perps and the victims in a crime novel.

 

Plane Silly

Runaway debt, runaway war, broken borders and a North American Union to steal America's Constitutional freedoms and we read about Nancy in the Sky again.  Plane amazing. Plain silly. Give her a jumbo jet, for Heaven's sake - it's all just paper anyway, right?

 

Snowed

Snow levels are approaching 7 feet in update New York, go the headlines.

 

Driving Business

Most of the international headlines don't look like serious business drivers today, and oil softening a bit seems to underscore that.. The Elk Hills (California) field concerns drove things for a while near the US close yesterday, but the panic seems to have worn off overnight.  Our pocket libretto says a down move won't likely develop until mid next week, the 13th or after, then through month end, but this isn't opera, so no putting too much faith in the libretto, eh?

---

Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm is talking about a 2% tax on services.  Everything from haircuts to legal fees would be included, but I expect that once the legal and accountancy lobbies get ramped up on this, they will find a way to weasel out of taxes.  I'd look for them to call what they do "professional services" and thus miss the sales tax, but that's only a side bet.  Lawyers give more to causes than barbers, so you know the outcome, right?

---

Another thing to watch is the default rate on housing loans.  The Chicago Trib headlines today that "Bank's mortgage warning could be a bad sign".  No kidding?

---

Layoffs are bound to pick up as the web bot runs anticipate incredibly high unemployment by the end of summer.  Latest indicators include...

Seriously Good Service

Story Time:  With the move into my new office here at the ranch, I started thinking about my lack of artwork.  What would be fun, whimsical, humorous, and yet be subtle?  Then it came to me - the Mad Magazine poster "Pirates of the Constitution" drawn by a genius of an artist who happens to read this site now and then.  The poster, available from the Mad Magazine web site, is a spoof of the "Pirates of the Caribbean" artwork - and tastefully done.

 

So armed with artwork from the aforementioned artist/reader, I went searching for a printer - found one in www.epingo.com, and had two posters made - one for me, one for the artist.  Nice size, mounted on backer board, laminated, you know, ready for the wall.  ePingo, in turn sent the poster FedEx and that's where it went missing on Feb. 2. 

 

So I called the ePingo folks and said "What can you do?"  They graciously did a rush print and reshipment - which will arrive today.

 

Well, that was yesterday afternoon, Texas time.

 

And, wouldn't you know it?  Last night at 8:08 PM, FedEx's trackers (who work out of Philadelphia, I found out) found the first package as their Hutchins  TX facility - and it was scanned into Tyler this morning. Meantime, the replacement posters are due in Monday or so.

 

All of which is to make two points.  First, I may end up with two extra posters of the "Pirates of the Constitution" poster - and if they arrive in good shape, we'll have some kind of contest to give them away, and the second point is to say that my faith is small business going the extra mile to get things right is restored, thanks to the folks at www.epingo.com

 

So, as a free plug (and even a link now) if you ever have a picture you want made into a poster, these are 24 kt. folks to deal with in my book.

 

Funny Friday - or is it?

My friend Ehor ("The Mazurok-Ure Correlation" 2001) sent along this snip making it's rounds on the net:

"Political Math

The next time you hear a politician use the word "billion" in a casual manner, think about whether you want the "politicians" spending your tax money.

A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of its releases.

a. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

b. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

c. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

d. A billion days ago no one walked on the earth on two feet.

e. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

 

While this thought is still fresh in our brain, let's take a look at New Orleans. It's amazing what you can learn with some simple division...

 

Louisiana Senator, Mary Landrius (D),is presently asking Congress for $250 billion to rebuild New Orleans . Interesting number, what does it mean?

 

a. Well if you are one of the 484,674 residents of New Orleans, every man, woman and child would each get $516,528.

b. Or, if you have one of the 188,251 homes in New Orleans, your home gets $1,329,787.

c. Or, if you are a family of four, your family gets $2,066,012.

 

Washington, DC. Hello!!!!! Are all of your calculators broken?"


Thursday February 8, 2007

Tumblers in the Lock

Sadly, we are obliged to report that still more tumblers are falling in the "event lock" which has, until now, kept us from expanding the Middle East War into Iran. You may not hear these tumblers falling by listening to mainstream media, unless it happens to be Lou Dobbs, one of the few really good journalists worth watching.  But I digress.

And, oh, by-the-by, while we continue to push American naval forces into the Persian Pond, we notice than Iran has made no secret of its successful firing of a low altitude ship-killer missile system, too.

While some journalists are putting the consequences of an Iran attack into perspective, such as Jon Basil Utley's "12 Consequences of Attacking Iran" our fear is not about $5 gas.  It's about $25 dollar gas and $400/barrel oil.  And maybe Region X being nuked by the Russians.

---

The time monks at www.halfpasthuman.com, who are busy getting their next event-predictive software run ramped up, tell me I worry too much and that the global picture could be worse.  In fact, they tell me to expect it to get worse - much worse:

"Remember we have a prominent (death), and then a 'green' death to deal with...and what if Pakistan goes rad-islam with nukes? "

Sure enough, it's lurking behind the headlines: Pakistan (read: US backed Musharraf) sees terror as a growing internal issue - a local microcosm of the larger picture. There may be some further basis for their concern, too, as the Hindustan Times headlines "Disadvantage Musharraf" and tees off with:

"The latest suicide bombing in Islamabad, apparently targeted at Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, is yet another indication of President Pervez Musharraf’s growing unpopularity

Financial markets don't seem to get it, at least not yet. That's probably because there is a happy-talk way to read things.  For example "Iran-India-Pakistan gas pipeline accord by June" sounds like....like progress on the surface.  But while the price of gold might drop a few dollars here or there, our bets will be hedged by the linguistics project and what we expect will be huge emotional releases past mid march.

---

It's time to repeat out usual admonishment about subscribing to the futur