Gold's Climb (Updated)

Remember a while back how the predictive linguistics team was saying there would be winter/spring calls for an audit of US Gold reserves?  Ta dah!  Here's the GATA's  ad that was in the Wall Street Journal...  Is Ron Paul the only guy in DC willing to ask for an audit?

Meantime, a force majeure in vanadium and ferrochrome metals has been called by one South African mining company - might this spread to other miners and other metals?  We shall see...

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Speaking of metals and such - that darn $7 silver I bought back in 2005 just passed $17 an ounce overnight.  And our latest dispatch from the Charleston Voice makes this observation:

"If you had swapped out your silver in May of 2006 and bought Google each share would have cost you 26 ounces. Now almost 2 years later, you'd nearly be back to even. Google has lost 34% of its silver value since mid-Dec 2007, and will probably get one heckuva lot cheaper. No capitulation volume spikes in sight."

No, but there are some strange-on-strange happenings in the Internet space.  Check this out:

Hey Big Spender Department

Microsoft is going after Yahoo in a $44.6 billion dollar surprise offer.  While I don't offer investment advice (although I do some personal consulting) I'd just look at what Yahoo Finance reports for Yahoo's trailing twelve month revenues:  $6.84 billion.

I guess the reason I'm not advising Microsoft in this deal is that to my eyes, it looks - choose your favorite term here - crazy, or loco, or  just plain meshugge!!! 

Since I got through B-school by reducing everything to bite-sized thoughts, try this:  You've got Yahoo with a Kool-Aid stand that has sold (let's call it) one glass for a dime.  So how much would you expense one of the world's greatest investors to buy this Kool-Aid stand for?  Remember one dime of sales.  Today's answer: 65.5882-cents!  Maybe there's something in the Kool-Aid?

Common Sense Emerges

I like to be ahead of trends (in order to get the full benefit from them) and apparently that's not escaped the notice of readers:

"George,

Thanks for your tireless efforts. Some folks read the morning paper before going to work – I read your site instead and it helps to put the daily grind into perspective.

I have just come across an article by a bloke called Mike Adams. Says he predicted the collapse of dot.com and the housing bubble. For much of it he sounds like a clone of your good self. Except he has another take on the super-amalgamation of North America – he thinks the US is going to collapse like Rome and fragment so maybe you want to see for yourself. Have a look at http://www.naturalnews.com/022528.html  and see what you think. (Yup - worth reading - G)

I’ve apparently doing the right thing by him and yourself, by having no mortgage and owning my car outright, in fact I ride a motorbike as my main means of transport, and have no debt. Living in the burbs doesn’t give me a lot of land to grow goats or bulk food but at least we have a healthy herb garden and that adds another dimension to life.

Keep up the good work mate."

It's not like I'm the only guy with the idea of deliberately down-sizing, going rural and so forth.  I'm sure by now you saw this week that Wall St. legend Barton Biggs is telling people to buy a remote farm or ranch, and stock it well for whatever come what may...

WWGN

No, this morning's report has nothing to do with WWGN - the FM radio station outside of Peoria Illinois.  Nope, WWGN is an abbreviation for "World's Weather Gone Nuts" - or, if you prefer, "Winter Weather Gone Nuts."

First, let's consider what's going on at the Big Picture level - and without getting into telescopes and such, let's just note that the Time Monks who do the predictive linguistics are studying the recent asteroid passing of TU-24 and wondering if we might not see some delayed 'effects at a distance' from this, or last night's BC-15, a smaller, but closer (0.8 LD) 20-meter rock.

It's not the asteroids, per se, that have their interest.  It's the idea that disruptions to the earth's magnetosphere could be linked to weather disturbances.  Between things whizzing by in space, the discoveries this week about the role of the magnetosphere of Mercury in fending off solar winds, and not to mention the expected disruptions in GPS and other communications to come to navigation and communications satellites from sun spots - all this has them in a deeply meditative state.  The fact that there's a good version of the "Sun Storms Disrupt Technology" story on another Peoria Illinois media outlet this month, WMBD.WYZZ TV, just shows how Universe sometimes things cluster in a curious way.

---

Winter Weather Gone Nuts is not exactly centered on Peoria this morning, but close enough as they've had a fair blast of winter overnight, no doubt about it.  And a lot of kids will get Friday off. An early Good Friday, if you're a Peoria kid.

The storm which dumped on Illinois overnight will move eastward into Massachusetts (let me apologize in advance for this) "lay-tah todahy."   (Note to Bureau Chiefs: Note: Gloucester regionalisms don't translate well into print...)

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Snows in China continue to make news, too, with at least 60 deaths, bunches of wiped out crops, and more being blamed on the storms.

But it's not the winter weather here in the US right now, nor the snows of China, or even the freak wave that grounded the ferry Riverdance on the Blackpool coast, that preoccupies the linguistics team.

What captivates them is a part of (computer) modelspace that holds references to things like banding of weather' and 'global storm'.  It's almost like down at the archetype level of what drifts around mass consciousness, there's something that goes to the idea of a huge globe-circling storm - not unlike the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.  They're a tad nervous about it not just  because this 'global super-storm has been percolating for more than 3-years in modelspace (*the longer something is in modelspace, the larger it usually turns out to be in terms of impacts when it comes around the timeline), but because we have all the linguistics devoted to "wind" coming over the next few months.

Poisoned winds from falling satellite reactor debris or a global super-storm.  Some choice; no wonder the monks make pies mediate a lot lately.  Or, maybe it's just sugar shock.

The Runs: Debatable

Some observers figure that Hillary blew it in the debate last night - she's all onboard for the Iraq War and that's pretty clearly a weakness by many reports today.

The Russian Runs: Countering the Counters

"Russia accuses Europe vote watchdog of "sabotage."  Maybe they just don't have enough electronic voting machines yet...

The Next Neo CON?

You're thinking "Why would John Bolton (ex-UN ambassador type) spouting off on Kosovo's independence?  Isn't that exactly why we are in Iraq?"

Listen up, Grasshopper: This ain't about democracy - it's about war.  Oh, and a few handfuls of natural resources, of course, don't hurt none...  But wait:  Isn't that  less than implied by a government report, or looking just at the silver & zinc potential of Stari trg

It's been obvious for years that if Kosovo gets 'independence' then Germany might get a hot new resource base to exploit.

Going Bats

Dying bats by the thousands. Prediction: Bug spray sales will be up in New York and Vermont as the bats dwindle and bug populations grow.  Nature's balance, in serial fashion.

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Coping: Simpler Cars?

A reader didn't like my dissing of high tech (read: computer dependent) cars:

"I just read the blurb on a guy getting a 'simpler' auto. Remember when it was a big deal that a car or truck made the 100k mark? That was a simpler car. TANSTASFL...."  [there ain't no such thing as a free lunch if you're ilweberate -G]

Beg to disagree (and I may callk on my GM Design Team readers to back this up) but the computers as I understand it have little to do with engine and drive train life.  More likely: closer machining tolerances, better and more uniform metals, and just better designs.

Better Housing Idea

OK, I'm not planning to build / berm a shipping container:

Already looked into the container, found the same as your readers did; HOWEVER: there are TWO alternatives that I know of, depending on how large you want the underground: the first, I’ll have to find the link on and send later: it’s a series of BUSES, taken out of service [no engines…], parked together [the ‘structure’ I mention was SIXTY buses, total…yeah, damned large…]. The guy parked ‘em next to each other, connected doors, and POURED CONCRETE OVER ‘EM ALL…yeah…have seen the finished item, and it was something: all sealed, vented, air filters, etc.; he towed ‘em into the excavated lot, approx. 2.5’ lower than the tops of the buses…

The second one is the one I’m doing: rather than ‘reinvent the wheel’, or claim authorship for it, here’s the original link: and this is easier to move [lighter] and obviously BUILT FOR UNDERGROUND…hell, it’s a CULVERT: and a good one…enjoy!

[now, this is good, permanent underground living…]

http://waltonfeed.com/old/cellar3.html

[go to the site, NOT Walton feed, for more information: I’ve called and talked at length with these folks, and they’re really fine people: very helpful, even if they know you’re building your own…me and my partners looked into this, thinking we’d perhaps begin fabricating ‘em for locals around here, in the No. Sierra…]

Send snip & save ideas & suggestions to george@ure.net

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Around the Ranch: Almost Did That

It was interesting on the 20-meter marine service net on ham radio last night - talking to a sailboat - Indian Summer - at anchor down in what sounded like "Shagarama Bay" in Trinidad and Tobago. 

Sometimes being landlocked and boatless is a bummer - especially since we got as far as San Diego back when...oh well....nice to hear from folks doing Carnival live...

Thursday January 31, 2008

Ticker Bummer

The speculation continues to build:  What happens if the ratings of bond insurers is really dropped?  There are reports going to the idea that MBIA and Ambac will each lose about $11.6 billion dollars, and if so, this could set off more asset sales into what are already somewhat illiquid markets, juiced for only an hour or two by yesterday's "Fed that Keeps on Giving" move, which dropped rates another 50-basis points / 1/2%.

I hope you have penciled out what this means?  Namely that Fed rate cutting is not over yet, which means someone is going to have to print up a lot more "money" and put it out there for the illiquid markets to sop up.  Of course, what you're supposed to ignore is that when more money is chasing the same level of goods and services, there's this little impact called "inflation", and you're not supposed to be connecting the dots.

Oh lookie here!  A Big Dot:  "Gasoline prices Seen Spiking Again in Spring " headlines the Washington Post. Yeah, I'd have to call that a dot.  Ditto Shell's £13.9 billion profit.

A few of us who trade commodities (or commodity options like me) will be looking at the Ag report due out this afternoon at 3 PM for another dot, but because our 'natural disaster/damaging winds' linguistics haven't made headlines yet, a so-so crop report would have to be expected.  They won't be moving supply down a lot until after we get the predicted events.

No point worrying about lower lows to come until the Dow posts a weekly close below 12,099, as I read it. I'm not in stocks, though.

A reader sagely opines:

"George,

Six more half point interest rate drops by the Fed and they will be into negative interest rates. Then the Fed can pay the banks to borrow money from them! This sounds ridiculous but at the rate that we're going I wouldn't bet against it happening."

Neither would I.  You know, there's a reason I call 'em banksters...   The Brits eye moving toward "secret bank rescues".  Print me up some, too, while you're at it...thanks!  I'll keep it a secret!

---

In India, religious ceremonies are planned to turn around the markets.

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But not to be too hard on the Fed...this email (it's a joke [or is it?]):

The Runs:  Ron Paul's MSM Burial

As of press time this morning, or maybe that'd be screen time, the number of news stories that mention "Super Tuesday" in Google's news search was 19,288.  The number that mention Ron Paul was 1,893, while the number mentioning non-candidate Rudy Giuliani was 6,314 and the number mentioning non-candidate John Edwards was 7,123.

Ain't the corporate funded duopoly (tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber choices) fun?

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Already, the speculation is about that Jeb Bush will somehow be shoehorned into the McCain ticket.  Can you spell corptocracy?

Restrictions on Travel

...of data as the Middle East undersea cable traffic is disrupted.  Also in that part of the world, a rare snowstorm...  Gee, they better fix it quick so the ME money boyz can wire us money to bail out the next round of failing financial institutions...

Speaking of Weather...

Our Oklahoma Bureau is complaining again:

"Yes, I've only lived in OK since 1998, but I read the NWS forecasters discussion and hazardous weather pages almost as religiously as I read Urban Survival. I've never seen a "snowstorm impact alert" issued before. Not here nor in NY when we lived there. Maybe it is something new?

"...SNOWSTORM IMPACT ALERT...

DANGEROUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ......WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW IS POISED TO IMPACT THE TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE...AND MOSTLY OCCURRING WITHIN A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME........ AND LIKELY HAVE IMPACTS ON THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM AS PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED TREE LIMBS FALL.. ."

"WINTER STORM WARNING ..NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR AT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW. SNOW DRIFTS OF TWO TO THREE FEET MAY OCCUR.... THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING."

Hang on a second....3 ft snowdrifts? Is this Tulsa or North Dakota? Hmmm. Yesterday, 60 mph wind gusts from the north; a 30 F drop in 30 minutes and low of 20F; today 40 mph wind gusts from the south, humidity down to 9% (that's dry even for the Mojave desert!) & a hi of 50F; tomorrow a half foot of snowfall & 3 foot snow drifts. Could almost make me wonder if that passing asteroid didn't pass a little gas (as in a small SGF)-LOL!

We've only had ice & rain this winter, so a lovely snowfall will be a nice change of precipitation type. Have a good Thursday,"

Just rain and lightning down here in Texas this morning, but I sure wouldn't want to live in Chicago (*I mean besides their state income tax and such).  More snow due in the area later today and into tonight.

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Cold weather in China continues to cause shortages.

Secrets Revealed Meme

Whistleblower Sibel Edmonds is promising 'more to come...'

"Southwest Flooding Meme"

With the evacuations on the Navajo Nations lands, we may be seeing the tip of something in modelspace that looks to be aggravated by things more uphill from the Southwest.  You'll see the real impact of the latest in the flood meme when waters force a prison to close - we'll point that temporal marker out on the way by later.

If the Time Monks Are Worried...

"We don't want you to worry, but you may get a chance to use that Geiger counter you picked up a while back," the conversation began.  It was Cliff, chief time monk in charge of predictive linguistics with his absolutely worst case scenario for late winter/early spring.

"Besides all the economic language between now and February 5th, we've got a couple of dates in the first week or March that coincide with the window when the NROL-21/USA 193 satellite is likely to come down.  Normally, not a big deal.  BUT, what's got us a little concerned is that this satellite all by itself has the potential to meet a lot of linguistics for the period.

Show you what I mean: Remember, we have "wind", "death from the winds", "stillness" and all kinds of wind-related language with temporal markers of late winter into spring in modelspace? And, it might also fit the Diaspora in spring into summer (*displacing of millions), and the calls for early elections due to how government  fails to react to the crisis.

It's probably nothing to worry about - because we always see the worst-case outcome, but picture a situation where a 10-ton satellite powered by either plutonium or cesium - power source will be heavy metals - comes down and fragments.  You remember that think tank  report which talked about 1,700 impacts in North America this year? We could envision a multi-state radiation pollution event with deaths which would also fit with the 'strange energies from space' meme that has been building.

Anyway, not to worry you, but you'll note that NASA does tend to do things in a predictable kind of way, including orbits, so have some fresh batteries for your survey meter come the end of February. Palestine Texas was where some of the Space Shuttle debris came down..."

Hold it!  I thought that most US spy satellites were circumpolar? 

"Not necessarily.  Anyway, just watch the stories developing that go to the idea that "we've been lucky so far" and depending on orbit, the odds of a land hit could actually be much higher than the obvious. 

A lot of people think that 'if the earth is 73% oceans, then that's the odds of a water hit.  But, it doesn't really work that way.  You need to do some orbital calcs and figure what percentage of the orbit is over land.  If you had something like say South Africa-Iran/Iraq, over Mongolia and Siberia, and than down the Pacific, you could have almost a 50-50 chance of land impact - that kind of thing."

Hmmm...had to admit the point;  Odds of a land hit would be dependent on the orbit. And I haven't seen those.

"Anyway, no worries, just a heads up, no point being alarmed...but something you might want to mention to readers - first few days of March something to keep an eye on...It's linguistically, the 'worst possible case' that would fulfillment of all kinds of parameters going into the Spring Equinox (*G note: predictive linguistics is based on a lunar calendar), winds, deadly winds, regional disaster, Diaspora, government bumbling, calls for new elections, and energies from space - they'd all fit.  You remember what we do when the government says "Don't worry?" 

Yeah...worry. 

"The good news is that if monkey-mind can imagine it, that just about guarantees that it won't be what actually happens."

Better Late Than Never Department

So now that the FBI has opened an inquiry into the subprime mess that first artificially inflated the economy, and now seems bent on crashing it, is there any hope they will go back to the source (*the Banker-owned and mislabeled "Federal" Reserve) to see what hand the PTB had in this affair?  No, I didn't think so.

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Coping: Cheap Housing Week Continues

OK, so shipping containers may not be good for bermed homes:

Many of the plywood (and even hardwood) floors used in a "conex" shipping container have been saturated with pesticides. Buyer beware.

Also, spray foam insulation would be a much better alternative to spray between those metal studs (insulates and seals providing a vapor barrier). Many commercial walk-in refers only use 1.5" of this stuff.

But, then you have to worry about formaldehyde off-gassing.  And then there's this reader who's already looked at the idea and scrapped it:

"Looked into that myself George,

The underground method has been evaluated as too risky due to engineering constraints.

Conex designed to take vertical loads at corners only, will COLLAPSE from side or top load with out substantial reinforcement. Lots of research on this available via Google, or search conex on Jim Rawles's Survival blog."

Damn, there goes another 'easy fix".

American Ingenuity

Say, if you are facing foreclosure, here's an interesting site sent in by a reader - no endorsement offered, but the name is tantalizing:  www.youwalkaway.com and it seems to be an option to consider...

Going Slow on OnStar

A reader sends this:

"In reference to your opinion on Onstar's "slowdown" feature, I remembered that I just read this yesterday. Pretty interesting and just shows where all of this could head! I got rid of my 2003 OnStar vehicle...I thinking going back to the basics is a very good idea, as most of the vehicle problems we have are because vehicles are so complicated now. It used to be easy, and not so expensive, to get things fixed, or to fix them yourself. Nowadays everything is ruled by computers and the mom and pop shops are disappearing. Keep up the good work- you are a breath of fresh air (read: honesty!!)."

If you have contributions to the snip & save section - anything you have discovered that seems like it's not widely known, yet it has helped you cope/live with more peace of mind - please write it up and sent it along to george@ure.net --thanks!

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Around The Ranch: Anything Can Happen Day

Can I write "Wednesday is Anything Can Happen Day" without running afoul a trademark?  I think so...

Anyway: Two steps forward, one back, sometimes.  I was able to feed the still feral cat (Zeus) and stand about 15-feet away while he munched.  That's likely close enough.  Once he gets to just barely within petting distance, I will put him (or her) into a whipping cream withdrawal treatment program.

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I spent a part of Wednesday under the house.  Have a darned stuffed up plumbing drain.  Went to town, bought a snake, and now the snake is stuck.  So today, rather than screw around with it anymore, I will write a check to get it fixed.  Sometimes, there are just times when writing a check is easier than the lost productivity and hassle factor of doing it yourself.  Working on my back in a small crawlspace where you can't even sit up is not my idea of a good time.

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This being garbage day, we rolled the trash out last night and as mentioned earlier this week, Elaine put Cayenne pepper around it to keep the coyotes away.  I thing this is why it rained.  No sneezing was heard from coyotes.

Wednesday January 30, 2008

The Fed That Keeps On Giving...

OK, no surprises here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080130a.htm

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent.

Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

The stock market reaction was muted, because everyone on the planet saw this one coming but there's a really tough question now: What can they do after this?  Gold was up today to almost $940 on the spot market.  Seems like I'm not the only one who equates 'easy money now' with 'hell to pay with inflation shortly.'

Fed Day

Place your bets: nothing, a quarter or a half this afternoon when the Fed decision on rates comes in.  I should have the announcement posted about 2:30 PM Texas time, or when the big hand a little bit to the right of the 12 if you're out in the other country - the West.

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As the Fed meets, we have to note that the economy is likely is zero-growth mode, or already shrinking.  Although the report on GDP out this morning sounds encouraging, when you back out inflation, things look really flat.  But don't let me interrupt the happy talk:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth- quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 28, 2008.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential structures, state and local government spending, exports, and equipment and software that were largely offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased slightly.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in federal government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and an acceleration in state and local government spending.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.28 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.90 percentage point from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.36 percentage point to the third-quarter growth.

FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

Don't you wish your household budget could work the same way?  Don't like a number?  Just 'revise' it.  Ah, the magical powers of power...

How Cool Is That?

50 to zero in a few hours in Chicago. 75 to 48 in four hours here at the ranch, too.

I Swear It Wasn't Me...

...but this listing from the Providence Rhode Island Craig's List sounds like something an UrbanSurvival reader would write:

"Wanted: YOUR TOYS

You: an average American. You are deeply in debt and still continue to borrow every day to feed your habit. You walk into Wawa and, for a measly $2.99 coffee and breakfast sandwich, you rip out the credit card because you have no cash (that’s me behind you in line). The concept of buying only those things you can actually afford is foreign to you. You feel that a $500k home with a big screen TV and BMW in the driveway are entitlements you deserve … even though you never finished college and earn about $45k/year. Going back to school … improving your skills … these are also distasteful to you. Math was not your favorite subject and, when the mortgage brokers told you that you could borrow your way to riches, you bit hook, line and sinker. Your mortgage rate has reset …you’re on the verge of foreclosure, making minimum payments on your credit cards and the Yellow Pages book on your kitchen table is opened up to “Bankruptcy Attorneys”. Gas prices and utility bills are killing you. Your job is not as secure as you thought. You are panicked. You are desperate. And the liquidation of assets (toys) such as your Beemer, your Big Screen, your fancy electronic toys, your Sea Doo, that nice new diamond ring bought with home equity cash … is going to be necessary to buy food and heat.

Of course, it’s all someone else’s fault. That someone else is …

Me: I sold my home at in late 2005 knowing full well that this massive housing bubble was unsustainable (I was a math major – that geeky guy you hated and despised in high school). And, no, you can’t copy my test answers. I put over half a million in the bank (less than $100k in any one bank to have complete FDIC insurance coverage). I didn’t have a mortgage because I always spent less than I earned and aggressively paid off my mortgage in just 7 years. I also didn’t pay a Realtor commission when I sold – who needed a Realtor to sell ANYTHING in 2005. I could have sold an outhouse for $250k to you dopes back then. I am a renter and I rent a 3-bedroom home cheap ($1600/mo) because the landlord has no pricing power. Rents are going to get even cheaper as more housing supply comes on the market and desperate flippers will rent at almost any price to soften the negative cash flow a bit. While you were buying your McMansion, I paid cash for everything, have no debt whatsoever and SAVE almost $30k/year. I don’t own a big screen TV or a boat. I have never bought a new car and I never will (not an investment – a depreciating asset). I am clearly *NOT* doing my part to support the US economy and you can blame me all you want for not pulling my weight. I am going to be a homeowner again but not for a few years. Housing is going to take a 50%+ haircut no matter what “stimulus” Bush provides in the form of rebates and regardless of whether Bernanke cuts interest rates to ZERO. The bond market will negate any interest rate reduction in hours or minutes. That ¾ point cut last week was swallowed up by the bond market in just 3 hours. It won’t matter a whit as there is too much debt and leverage in play for this not to unwind very painfully. I am not in the stock market either as that haircut will be equally painful. In the meantime, I want to enjoy life so I’m in the market for a few toys; specifically *your* toys (I don’t pay retail for anything). At the right price, my son would love to watch sports on a nice big screen. I’m thinking of riding your jet skis this summer (cheap, of course). I met a wonderful woman this past autumn and we are hitting it off amazingly. She and I are like-minded with regard to the above. So, she would not mind at all wearing that nice diamond ring even if it’s second hand (she’d probably come in her panties if she knew I got it for dimes on the dollar). My Jetta still runs nice but your BMW would be a great addition to my driveway. I don’t care what you owe on it – I’m not paying that much. But I am paying CASH. What have you got? "

I'd give this an A+ for 'getting it' and I swear to you, this wasn't written by me - it was sent along from my commodity broker, JB, who I think got it from one of his clients in R.I.  I would have been a little more gentle, maybe with something like "Down on your luck, need cash?  I need a good used Porsche..." kind of thing.  But, hey, this is dead-certain evidence that some people are wising up.

The Runs: Rudy Drops Out

There are plenty of reports out today that Rudy Giuliani will be dropping out of the presidential campaign and will throw in with Senator John McCain. Bye.....

---

'Throwing in with" is a long-standing political game.  It'll assure Rudy would have to be considered for veep, and failing that, the next republicorp assault on the Constitution would at least result in a cabinet level gig.  Yeah, I know, you don't like the 'assault on the Constitution' view, but look:  We've lost habeas corpus, efforts are underway to impose thought crimes legislation, and we're barring honorably discharged veterans from owning firearms if PTSD is even mentioned, so sorry, I've got a growing pile of data points on my side on this.

Oh, lookie - here's more...

The Sky IS Falling

CNN has cranked up good coverage on the plans for recovering that errant spy satellite due down...well...shortly.  We've got bets on around here whether the satellite is plutonium powered.  Nasty stuff for humans, but on a power-to-weight ratio, I can see why a high powered satellite might be designed around such a power source.  The potentially ugly part is not supposed to happen but now will...

Here Comes Famine

Reports are that people in the worst parts of Haiti are down to eating dirt....again, the linguistics have this huge 'encounters with scarcity' bugle due shortly, so this kind of this is definitely of interest.

Shortages Back

I am still trying to get the shortages chart recovered.  Seems the new-fangled version of Excel ate it - leaving with with a 43-KB file of gibberish that won't open.  But, while I work on this problem the occurrence of the word "shortage" is a Google news search is back over 30,000 this morning.

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If you're a data recovery expert, I'd be glad to email you the file which has entertained me for hours.  Am I the only one who wishes that MSFT had left i9ncluded a "run everyhthing in old-style .odc and .xls format so I don't have to convert everything into compatibility mode in order to work with folks who use Open Office?

I Feel the Earth Move, Under My...

Islands in the South Pacific.   Tsunami warning issued...

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The Bureau Chief from our Houston operation relocating to the area should have plenty to write to us about sooner than later from down that way.

Counting Kidneys

Here's something that's right out of a horror novel: A body-parts stealing operation in India uncovered by authorities.

Expanding Wars

Say, if you've got an economic stimulus package going to bail out the sagging economy in the US, no reason not to expand the outposts of Empire elsewhere, because that will help the defense business.  And so, as I read how the "U.S. to Expand Outposts Across Baghdad by 30%": I'm sadly not surprised.  Not even the slightest.

Kosovo's Independence Coming

Here's something that seems likely to set off another round of saber rattling between East and West soon: Kosovo could declare its independence from Serbia inside two weeks.

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Coping: Cheap Housing for Five

Here's an interesting idea:

"Howdy fellow Texican:

An idea for cheap housing that I've done a little research on but have no true experience with is using a shipping container or "convex" box as a home. What I've read is they are in use in poverty stricken parts of the world already, but as they are made of steel for walls and top they get cold as hell in the winter and hot as a kiln in summer.

I figured if you set it level on concrete blocks or treated timbers/RR ties and anchored it down to avoid concerns with tornadoes, one could attach light gauge metal studs vertically 24" on center tack welded to the iron sides full height. Do the same across the roof area, with one side pitched up (depends on roofing material as to what the min pitch is).

Add some regular batt insulation R-13, or if your use 6" wide metal studs you could stuff R-19 batts between the studs, and across the roof area. Cover the exterior with OSB sheets and siding, and roof with 3-tab shingles or metal panels, and you've got an 8'x40' durable home. Add windows and doors (prior to the studs and insulation) if you have a welder and cutting torch, as the big double doors at the end require some mass in your a - - to maneuver open and shut.

The floors are heavy grade plywood and if you block it up a tad off the ground you have room to route plbg drain lines for kitch and bath.

Some have aligned 2 or 3 of these boxes side by side and cut large openings in the common walls to create a much more livable space. And I've seen pics of 3-4 stacked up like Lincoln logs with internal stairs.

With more and more "stuff" coming to us from China, soon via the Trans-TX corridor, the current price of under $2500 for a 40' box (delivered) should keep coming down as they supply increases. It's the shipping that gets you, but some sellers will ship and offload for free within reasonable distances."

Funny this fellow would bring this up: The folks across the road bought one a week or two back and I've been meaning to get over and do an 'inspection'.  I think they're planning to use it for grain storage (feed for their rabbits, goats, and chickens, but I've been eyeing one as a basis for an earth-bermed shelter.  We don't have a tornado shelter here and I've been thinking that a 40' container buried a few feet would make a fine year-round storage unit for us, too, as well as being a pretty decent in-ground shelter if I bermed it up.  Might take a day of tractoring, but still, seems like a low cost way to get a lot of square footage.

When you think about it, a 40' container (the local price is about $2,800 delivered, which ain't bad) is a great/cheap way to build a house if you're going to berm it anyway.  I figure with two or three of these things, I could make a fine earth-bermed home for around $25,000 including a couple of bathrooms and finished out living spaces. 

The advantage of earth-sheltered homes is what?  The subsoil ground temp year round is usually pretty comfortable - here, it'd be around 65-70 4-5 feet down, which means the cost of heating and cooling would be very, very low. 

Already having the welding gear, the hardest part of such a project might be leveling adjoining buildings.  Pond liners, my friend Cliff tells me, are a cheap thing to put over any earth-sheltered home to keep water out.  Surround it with a French drain and you're off to the races...

Live in a rural county with no building department to mess with, however.

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Got more cheap housing ideas?  Send 'em along to george@ure.net.

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Tuesday January 29, 2008

Winds and Change

While George Bush was giving the usual upbeat assessment of the State of the Union last night, the local TV stations, like WCAX in Vermont we running stories about how "Brattleboro Moves to Indict Mush, Cheney."

Indeed, this last Bush family assessment focused largely on the Wars and Taxes, but nothing was said about the continuing erosion of our Constitution and the ideals of the Framers.

It seems government if off and running on its own agenda, whether it's the Texas State Department of Transportation shoving through another truck route from Mexico, or in New York, where authorities are trying to register Geiger counters. 

Sometimes, it's a little hard to tell the wind, from the hot air, for the corpgov agenda, and as these kinds of stories indicate, it's really more about which side you have been conditioned to, rather than any absolute measure.

Meantime, the political correctness movement is alive and well with the democorps deciding to push a Spanish lanuage State of the Union response.  This is clearly pandering to the Hispanic voters in America.  I notice that there was not Democratic response in German, Chinese, Athabascan, or Swahili  - just to name a few cultures that have contributed to the greatness of America, and yet decided to join in our common language.  What's the old saying, divide and conquer?

If we are going to deliver a State of the Union response in another language, then my vote is that it be done in Chinese.  A number of good reasons come to mind:

• Foremost, of course, is that Chinese Admiral Zheng was sent forth by Emperor Zu Di in 1421 to map the known world, and arguably the way Gavin Menzies tells it in his landmark book 1421, the only reason the Spanish got dibs on the large portions of south, central, and north America was because when Zheng returned to China, the Emperor was in the midst of revolution.  Zheng's maps arguable got Columbus and other Mediterranean/Europeans to the "New Land" mapped by Zheng's sailor 70 years earlier.

• The second reason that the democorp rebuttal should be in Chinese is that China's influence on the economy of the USA is growing by leaps and bounds.  That country has a huge emerging class of consumers and when you go to the local Big Box or Wal-Stores, do a little checking to see how much product is coming from Mexico, versus how much is coming from China.

• A third reason to give the rebuttal, at least in a different language every year, is to underscore that America was - and I hope still is - the melting pot.  I love Mexican cooking, but Italian, Danish, English, Japanese and Chinese are equally tasty.  As in the kitchen, we're all in this country together. We all use salt, and it might make sense to use one language, too.

To be sure, there are political pundits aplenty who promote "correctness" and would label my simple proposal for a Chinese State of the Union Rebuttal as crass populism, although I prefer the banner "corporate realism.". But failing that branding, I have another word for it: common sense.

With any luck, the winds are backing a bit in that direction, but we won't know for sure until another few million are foreclosed on;  and bankrupted by usury laws,  because it's when confronted directly by hunger and cold that the winds of change kick in  and blow strongest.  Our linguistic time machine pals tell us to expect that to come along later this year.  Watch the winds build through the year, and be watching for the Big Winds especially.

Winds, II

In the meantime, the Spring Winds/natural disaster is not here yet, but winds are building in the literal sense, too.  The Prairies up north of us in Canada are gonig through a serious chill-down.

So people just plain don't like wind - at least when there's an effort to capture it for energy production.

True to its role of regulating everything within reach, The State of New York has issued regulations on wind turbine danger to birds and bats.  I better tell the cats to hide, I can see NY lawmakers regulating their catches next.

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Dropping back to the national forecasts, yes, we have a lot of wind coming later this week, in places like Pittsburgh, and even here in East Texas, we might see 40 miles-an-hour winds this week.

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The heresy of corpgov really comes into view when you spend a few minutes thinking about things over time.  Take, for example, the headline that the "Iraqi government tackles Global Warming." It verges on, as I see it, nonsensical MSM hypnosis - yet it's a mantra widely repeated today.

While it sure is nice/marketable, and useful to molding certain persuasion blocks of public opinion, I can't think of a country with a worse pollution record, specifically for allowing depleted uranium to be fired all over the place, at the cost of permanent harm to both its residents - and our brave men and women in uniform who are there. 

The depleted uranium story has been nicely buried by mainstream since late 2003, but it doesn't take a rocket surgeon (sic) to go back and look at some of the news coverage of the issue in 2003. 

Today, you're supposed to simply forget that (just as you might a hangover or bad date) and instead be pleased to learn that Iraq has signed the Kyoto Treaty, something the lobbyists in our own District of Corruption still have out for bid here.  The holding action while the republicorps ready to flee? A $2-billion dollar 'show' piece is offered instead.

And the bidding and boasting will continue, I'm sure, regardless of which party (e.g. from which side of the trough) lands next in the White House.

Ever Durable Optimism

From our "show me those statistics, would yah?" department:

New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $11.2 billion or 5.2 percent to $226.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed 0.5 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.9 percent.

Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $212.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease.

Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up thirty-one of the last thirty-two months, increased $20.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $808.6 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.2 percent November increase.

Inventories Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up five of the last six months, increased $3.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $320.7 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent November increase.

Capital Goods Industries Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December increased $4.2 billion or 5.4 percent to $81.1 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in December increased $5.2 billion or 80.6 percent to $11.6 billion.

How we have horrific home sales reports out, and then turn around and get wildly rising durables must mean we're putting refrigerators in the shanty towns... screaming rally should follow if anyone believes it. But, it does take pressure off the Fed to drop a half tomorrow.

Trouble on Bordering

Seems that Islamists are working the break in the Gaza/Egyptian wall to further their ends.

Still?

The Diana inquest coverage continues.  I feel like that battery commercial should be going on as I read this stuff..."Still going..."

Gorby Rap

So no, Mikhail Gorbachev is not happy with how Prince Vlad, the Anointer, is running things in Russia, but what'cha gonna do?

Asteroid Fly-By

OK, so the world didn't end with the passage of asteroid TU-24.  But, I'm sure that in the coming week or two, any outbreak of severe weather will be blame on 'effects at a distance" - like maybe the Cyclone in Fiji?

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Coping: Shelters and Kids

First the note about sheltering five people:"

Ok, for shelter here is an idea taken from my son's fort he built with a friend. They used wood pallets for the floor and sides. For insulation on the sides, they went and got bark off of dead trees and filled the spaces on pallets. It is amazingly warm. This fort was built off the ground, using old power poles to hold it. The top of the fort is 2 old doors, with one that lifts up on hinges. Oh yeah, on the sides, the nailed metal lathe on the outside to keep cats out. This would work for a shelter if you put wood pallets on the floor, with plywood over them to walk on. The sides are wired together with heavy wire and wired to the floor. You could make this 2 or 3 pallets high if you desired. The roof could be plywood (wired on one side to make a hinge and a latch on the inside to keep it shut and a tarp over it to make it waterproof), old doors, a tarp, or just about anything else. You could make it any size depending on how many pallets you had.

I forgot to send a recipe. We call it "Pooh Hash" after my daughter's nickname and the fact she liked it (the nickname was Ranie the Pooh). Here it is:

You cut up potatoes into small cubes. You heat oil, butter, or shortening in a pan. You cut up an onion, garlic, peppers, or whatever else you want in it. Put it all in the pan. Cook until the potatoes are lightly brown, then you add leftover meat (I have used everything but fish and seafood). Cook until meat is warm. Scramble 1 or more eggs in a bowl. Make a hole in the center of the hash, add the eggs. Stir until lightly cooked, then mix in the hash. Stir until cooked. It feeds a lot of people, and it is very filling. You could also serve gravy over the top, or add vegetables (such as corn, green beans, peas, etc.). This is how I cook Egg Fried Rice, only I use leftover rice. This will also cook over a campfire or grill.

As always, love the site. You are right on target.

Send in more "How to shelter " ideas - and don't forget to site your hieaway away from eyes that would evict you in the middle of the night...

Next, some thoughts on brining goats in the world...

"Just a quick note in reference to your doe's soon to be kidding-

You haven't mentioned much about your preparing for the "blessed" event. Maybe Storey's guide on goat-keeping was mentioned - can't find it the specific reference but think I can recall it. Hopefully things will go well.

I have only gone through two kidding seasons with a total of ten birthings. One thing I know is there's a huge amount more to learn.

First season -4 does giving 6 kids with no problems. "This is easy" I thought. This spring -4 does, 3 of 10 kids born dead/soon dead. Then 2 emergency vet visits (including one done by the heroic Dr. Blair Lowenstein just after a snow/ice storm at 2 am) for "stuck" does requiring 1 cesarean and resulting in 3 live kids out of 5. Grand total 10 kids (7 males) out of 15. End result a nightmare for me emotionally and a financial disaster. Thankfully no does died although the doe with the c-section probably shouldn't be bred again.

My friend and adviser who is a 4H goatkeeper of 7 years (and future veterinarian) also had a similar experience this spring ending with two dead does and 6 lost kids.

So my advice is: 1. Do not believe the guides' when they say birthing complications are "rare."

Goodness knows what people are thinking when they conceptualize rare. Once when employed by a federal agency I got included in a survey about vaccine adverse reactions a question inquiring of medical professionals what they thought rare meant. The survey result seemed to be "1 in 50." This was surprising to me as I would have thought something along the line of "1 in 10000 or greater." Think "rare bird" which for a Snowy Owl in Maryland is 1 in 1,000,000.

2. If you haven't done so yet- establish a "professional relationship" with a vet who works with livestock and will make an emergency farm call at any hour.

This is done simply by presenting one of your animals for treatment- i.e., something as simple and cheap as a single vaccination (take the animal to the vet yourself and save the house call fee.) Absent of this prior relation, at least around here in Maryland, a vet will refuse to make a needed emergency call. A fellow I buy hay from and who has raised beef for many years was naturally upset when that happened to him this spring. One of his cows had a birthing problem and no vet would come and help. The cow died along with the calf. He said because he worked on a thin margin, did all his own vaccinations, castrations, etc. so he never used a vet. The answer of course is use a vet one time (but even better -do it with a second vet too) and then they will be at hand when needed - cheap in the long run.

3. If you are at all concerned with growing your herd (or in the case of meat goats, getting them to market) do not let nature take its course.

As a long time sailor you know nature isn't always nice. Be out there with your doe at her time. If things go well it won't require more than two hours. You may want to bring her inside so it's easier for everyone (yeah it's hard with large Boers) That's another reason to raise Nigerian Dwarfs (got my herdsire buck and a young wether sleeping on either side of my chair as I type this.) Know when she needs help, i.e., no labor should last longer than 2 hours -call the vet THEN-it will take them 2 hours to get there. If you are not trained (it can require putting a line around the proper leg as well as adjusting the kid's position, etc.) do not try pulling out a kid on your own (that's what happened to my beef friend.) Check if the babies are breathing, clear their mouths if not, towel them off (kind of energetically, not by dabbing,) keep 'em warm, etc. Make sure they get their colostrum from mama.

Again, all of the above is much easier done if inside. I'm determined after this past spring to bring my due does inside 3-4 days ahead and keep them in dog crates filled with clean straw before expected birth. The environment will be cleaner and more hospitable than the communal barn.

Good luck."

Thanks - I'll keep you posted...

Send snip & save ideas to: george@ure.net

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The Political Daughter Writes

My eldest daughter and I often don't see quite eye-to-eye on politics - but he sent me an email this morning e4xpressing her support for Barack Obama - and she makes some interesting points:

"Dear Reader,

I wrote this essay last night, because my mom forwarded me an incredibly hateful negative email that is going around from some crazy spam-bot about Barack Obama.

I would like to share it with you, because, I think that you are the future and the present of the United States of America.

Barack Obama is this country's last hope. So what if his dad is or was a Muslim? Lots of People are Muslim, and most Muslims don't want anything to do with fundamentalism and destroying the U. S, they just want a happy family life and a good income. Just like most Christian Americans

Being Muslim is a religion. Just like Christianity. It is not wanting to destroy the U. S. Our government now wants you to FEAR them. But why? Fear is an easy means of control.

Just because somebody's parents were of a different religion than Christianity doesn't mean that that person is bad, or a scheming way for the fundamentalist Arabs to control the U. S. That is WACK. And if you believe that you are Wack. If you seriously believe that Barack Obama is a spy for the "Evil Arabs" than you are rather gullible and ill-advised.

As far as religion goes, The number one president in all U. S. history, Abraham Lincoln, who we should all look up to, was also Non Religious

From Wikipedia:

"For some time, Thomas Lincoln, Abraham's father, was a respected and relatively affluent citizen of the Kentucky backcountry. He had purchased the Sinking Spring Farm in December of 1808 for $200 cash and assumption of a debt.[4] The family belonged to a Baptist church that had seceded from a larger church over the issue of slavery [citation needed], although Abraham himself never joined their church, or any other church for that matter."

A president need not wear his Christianity on his sleeve to be great, moral or outstanding.

Barack Obama is a dedicated senator, and most important of all, an outsider. Not of the Shrillery Clinton Blue-bloods, or the Old White Millionaires that the Republican Party wants us to vote for. Obama is the son of an immigrant parent, and he worked hard for what he has and is. So what if he associated with a "Slumlord"? he was trying to help the community at the time. He worked with Real People to make the community better from the ground up. He wasn't handed everything on a silver platter in an Ivory Tower like The Clintons, or The Republican Millionaire candidates. I want a president who knows what is up in the United States in the real world now.

Andrew Jackson's Parents were IMMIGRANTS. Nobody cared back then did they? They wanted the best man for the job.

Did John F. Kennedy's presidency (He was a devote Catholic) make the Vatican secretly run the U. S. government? I don't think so. I think you sheeple should open your minds and your guts and think really hard. Katrina. Remember how great the Republicans handled Katrina? Yeah, not so great at all. Hundreds died. "make levees, not war," but the war kept going..

And for the record, most of my possessions were destroyed in Katrina. My greatest musical recordings, my VHS taped lived performances with my band, gone, except for ten songs that I took with me before Katrina. I know several people who have either died or gone insane from fighting in Iraq. I have a rather negative opinion of the Bush Presidency. Why are we there in Iraq, I thought it all so complicated until I read Kurt Vonnegut's essay "Cold Turkey" and it explained a lot. I mean Vonnegut(R. I. P.), was a veteran himself! He lived through the fire bombing of Dresden, by hiding in a slaughterhouse. (the novel Slaughterhouse Five is a personal fantastical science fiction memoir of that one event) One of the most horrific events of the last century, of WWII. I can understand why we fought in WWII. Hitler, was very bad. Vonnegut is one of my literary idols, possibly the greatest author in the twentieth century.

here's the link: http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/cold_turkey/ 

If I could just make one person open their mind to the thought of Barack Obama being a good president, then I feel this essay is worth it.

Love,

From Denise "  (email Denise)

The main difference between 29 and 59 must be the number of checks you've written, how many times you've changed jobs, and how much the dollar has been eroded in your lifetime.  But, she's on the right track, I reckon.  At least she's thinking for herself, which may put her into an  upper percentile...now if I could just get her to look at the history of tax burdens and money printing...

Around The Ranch:  Chemical Warfare

I got a call about 10 AM yesterday from the polite folks up in Tyler, Texas, who run the local garbage collection service.  "Mr. Ure, would you mind taking your trash container out to the road this week?"  Yeah, OK, fair enough.  The past couple of weeks the pickup crew had generously driven down to the barn to make the pick up.

"Although, I have to tell you, I'm don't like to do that"  Tends to bring arou9nd coyotes and such and with kids on the way, the last thing I need is a bunch of coyotes around sniffing the garbage and whatever else smells good,"  I suggested.

"Oh, you know what works good for that?  Get yourself some cayenne pepper and pour it in a circle around the garbage can.  That screws up their sense of smell and they won't get into the trash."

Hmmm...more good farmerly knowledge to store up.  And that gets me back to wondering if a 'spicing' of the kids might have a similar effect?  I thinking of trying mint or taco seasoning.  Elaine just looks at me kinda funny...

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You'll recall that last week, it was E who had the "cold from hell" - although as she describes it, it was more like a variety show.  One day is lower G.I. issues, the next day sweats and chills, the next day, the nasal passages run competition to the Water Department.  Then it starts again.  Still, variety in all things.

I woke up about 4:30 this morning with the 'can't get warm' part of it, and wonder how this thing will progress.  A few muscle aches, but nothing a shot or two of homemade colloidal silver and two large cups of Mrs. Olson's best shouldn't fix.

I'd also volunteer to take a double shot of Uncle George's Kentucky Cure; mixed with a little honey it used to work.

However, as my poster from the weekend of trying to get Expression Web to work, along with my Assistant Jack, (how do I say this in a nice medical way?)  The antibacterial and antiviral efficacy of of such a course of treatment seems to be impaired by the presence of the .XML of .XHTML molecule.

Still, we have other treatments to consider including Jamaican Dark medicine, as well as some single malted strains, although heavy doses of these medicines have been know to cause headache, nausea, regurgitation, and blurred vision and should not be taken while operating machinery.

Maybe just the colloidal silver, some ibu's and a long nap will help.
 

Monday January 28, 2008

Bummer Monday

OK, if your life is ruled by how the markets are likely to open (hint: lower), you haven't been paying attention to our advice to chill out, gently slide away from paper-based assets and into things you can hold - like gold (up again this morning) and silver (ditto at press time) and things that can be used to actually make something.

Asian markets were the overnight center of fear, although Europe this morning is also a little, ah, how do I say this?  Disappointing...yeah, that's a good one: disappointing.

Not telling how many billions the Fed through at the market last week via the Plunge Protection Team, but that 'emergency rate cut' didn't buy much: About a110-point gain or the week. 

A Wall Street Journal piece today starts with "Some investors are disappointed that U.S. stocks haven't rebounded more decisively after last week's Federal Reserve rate cut..." 

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If you've missed past columns around here (there's a bunch, click here for the library) you might not remember one of my favorite mantras:  "Who is the replacement buyer?"

If you have a whole bunch of Baby Boomers about to retire and selling off stock to fund their retirement dreams, it stands to reason that there must be at least an equal number of buyers ready to wade in to equities. 

The simple math says if there are fewer buyers than sellers, prices will go down - a nice way of saying your retirement dream may be hosed. 

Whenever I talk to the kids, I ask "What are you buying?"  The eldest is saving for her first house.  The others are content to rent - and invest money in stocks?  "Dad, are you crazy?  We have student loans to pay off..."  Oh yeah, those.

Well, that's the whole economic problem in a nutshell.  Where is the replacement buyer? 

Not that it's just stocks, either.  As my friend Trader Jim Goulding pointed out a few years back, we also ran out of replacement 43-year old second home buyers in 2003 or so.  Maybe the Housing Bubble was extended a bit through easy credit, but that's clearly yesterday's news and now housing prices are coming down.

Whether all this will feel like inflation or deflation depends on your personal balance sheet.  If you own a home, your net work is likely to decline.  If you don't, you'll be griping about inflation at the grocery store.  In the end, we get the Great Bush Bust, despite the easy money, rate cuts, and even a couple of wars going to spur employment and keep 1-2% of the workforce artificially employed...

Say, did I mention it's Monday and the Asian markets sucked and so does Europe as we go to press?

The Runs: Super Tuesday in 8

Democorps care.  Republicorps care.  Do I?  Only if its auditable...

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Am I the only Ron Paul supporter who has been watching the situation in Russia which has barred one of the presidential contenders from running?  Of course, we don't need to resort to that sort of thing to keep the corpgov illusion going.  We just have LameStreamMedia black out the candidate and presto!  It's like the candidate doesn't exist.

State of the Union

I've lost track of how many wars, the diving Dow, the housing bubble, and the practice of only counting as unemployed, those people who still can get UI benefits.  So, how well this and the corpgov answer to everything (more government!) can be molded into a fairytale comes later today in the State of the Union.

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Speaking of thought control, here's a dandy look by Indy Media (real media) at a Colorado Thought Crime law...

Now, A Short Story

"Dwarves zipped in suitcases steal from Swedes" is the headline. I couldn't make this stuff up...

The Weak Ahead

Durable goods come out tomorrow, and a little later in the day, Consumer CONfidence.  Today's housing numbers out at 9 Texas Time are almost a foregone conclusion.  Wednesday, the next gift from the print-money department is due, while Thursday sees personal income and Friday brings on more numbers than you can shake a stick at.

The Sky Is Falling

No one is saying where and when, but a rogue spy satellite is due to reenter Earth's atmosphere soon.  When?  No one is telling (or if they are, they won't say). If someone yells "Duck!" this week or next, pay attention.

The Sky is Falling, II

Check out the TU 24 site today - risk is up to Level 2: Exercise caution through tomorrow....

And the Sky is Gray

California is a mess from weekend storms which moved though the region. It's not the end of the world - just winter.

Snip & Save

No snip & save section this morning:  We did food last week, so this week, put on your thinking cap and see what kinds of ideas you can come up with to find cheap shelter for a family of five in a big city.  Might be really useful as the foreclosures wave builds this year... No, don't submit living in a car...

Send 'em to: george@ure.net.

Around The Ranch:  Never a Dull Moment

Busy, busy weekend.  Let's start at the top of the list:

Name That Cat:  Elaine came up with a dandy - a deliciously subtle true Texas name for the feral cat who I've managed to get hooked on daily 1 tbsp doses of whipping cream:  It's name is "Zeus."

I can see your wheels turning already...hmmm...how is this a deliciously true Texan name?

Step out side and try yelling "Hey! Zeus!"  (You may have to say it a few times if the coffee hasn't kicked in yet.).  Our lady of double entendre...

Peoplenomics Subscriptions: A few have been delayed in setup (which should get done today) because we're in the process of setting up really serious encryption to log on to the servers - the encryption keys will get set up today -  I expect will be caught up by this even, so if you're waiting for a username and password, be patient!

Goats:  One of the does looks about ready to give birth - not that after living on a sailboat for 10-years I have much of an eye for such things, but the folks across the way do. 

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Dick Chinny, our double-registered buck, is behaving more like a dog than a goat.  Intensively curious about what I've been up to at the goat barn (putting up siding and getting ready to install a goat-proof door.  He says the time lock is unnecessary, but I don't trust goats...

Chickens:  Six more Rhode Island Reds were added to the flock - pullets purchased from the folks across the road...or should I say across the Rhode?

Ham Radio Corner: I'm thinking about writing an article on "Iterative Troubleshooting" for one of the ham radio publications.  Step #1 with the restoration of the SB-221 linear was to repair the bias supply and install the Harbach soft key module.  Buttoned up, the amplifier (70 pounds or so) was lugged over to the HF portion of the office.

The first thing resolved was why the bias supply was blowing up capacitors.  That was the easy part: The half-wave rectifier (a small, puny, under-sized diode had failed, which applied about 90 volts of AC to a small filter cap - and because they don't like such abuse, it blew up.  New diode, bigger filter cap, and that was good to go.

Parts installed, and tested on 110V (how it came to me), it was then back to the workbench a second time to change out the plug and rewire the power to eat 220 instead of 110. Say, this thing was getting heavy...

15-minutes and another back-bender to get it to the operating position it was on the air for initial testing.  It worked - but only sort of.  Seems it was only pulling about 300 milliamps of plate current in the tune mode - should have been about twice that.

Worse, the amplifier was cycling into the transmit mode at a speed that was varied depending on whether the high voltage was set to low (for cw/rtty/tuning) or high (for voice SSB).  Now, what the heck was that all about?  Back to the bench.

A quick scan of the internet revealed a discussion of whether the grids should be grounded directly, or use the lash-up which was supplied by Heathkit, that involved a couple of RF chokes and some bypass capacitors.  More important, if the factory-designed grid circuit failed, the resulting bias would kick the transmit relay over.  Now I was onto something.

Sure enough, a quick run through with the  test gear and turns out one of the RF chokes had opened up. 

That left a decision to be made whether to go directly 'grounded grid' and forego the couple of db improvement in distortion products or order a couple of RF chokes.  No sense waiting a couple of weeks for parts - I was rewiring it straight grounded grid and eliminating about 8 components that could potentially fail in the future.  The couple of db  of intermod distortion?  Wouldn't be detectable by any human ears, especially with the speech processor turned on, anyway....

Cured of that ill, and with matching #10 stranded wires of equal length doing the grounding (green wire under the RF choke in picture above - the RF choke being that thing I'm holding there...), it was time to button up and lug over again...

So now the amp was working fine on 20-meters - a nice 2 kilowatts worth.  But, when I went to test on 75, it wouldn't load worth a darn - 40-meters either.  So another lug back to the bench, unbutton everything and set about working on it.  This was now feeling more like a gym workout for the lower back than a leisurely electronics hobby.

Aha!  There it was: Somehow in transport one of the band-switching wires had been moved and had shorted out the 40 and 80-meter positions.  No problem.  One more button up and back to the operating position where, as you can see in the picture, that new front panel (and the cabinet going through the dishwasher as part of its cleaning/ham radio baptismal) and it doesn't look like a 30 year old piece of equipment...the photo doesn't do it justice, but it looks just fine:

All told, I think it was off the workbench and over to the main operating position half a dozen times, but the lesson here's an important one:  Troubleshooting electronics is an iterative process:  You start at the power cord and get the power supplies working right:, and from there, you move from the input side of an amp toward the output connection.  In a receiver, you can start at the speaker and work back toward the antenna, apply systematic testing along the way.

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Making electronics work is not a matter of some occult knowledge or 'magic'.  It's the repetitious application of proven laws of physics, rigorously applied, and a commitment to fix, test, fix the next thing, and so on...

I've found that to be a good mindset for a lot of things in life - everything from sailboats to tractors to option trading, to personal relationships.  Almost everything has an underlying set of principles, which if applied diligently, will get you to where you want to go.

Software:  As long as I had the camera out and was working in the office, sometime this weekend, I made time to write up a whole one-page users guide to help other web page authors who - like me - are having a tough time transitioning from Microsoft's FrontPage to Web Expression.  Ta-dah!  Here it is..:

So,  it's Monday eh?