Markets Peaking? Don’t Try This At Home, Kids

A lot of people spend inordinate amounts of time worrying about “conventional” prepping.  And while that is often a good thing, it can also be one huge distraction that will keep you from making maximum money in this lifetime…

Last week I posted my latest stock trade publicly – something I don’t usually do.  You can find it in “Like Shooting Fish, Or Do Fish Shoot Back…” over here.

This morning – with the Dow futures pointing down 33 when I looked, but more importantly the NASDAQ Composite looking to open down another 50 points, we might just come up with “lunch money” on this trade, after all.

(continues)

 

Don’t misunderstand:  I don’t post my personal trades *(just after I have done them) very often.  I don’t want to be accused of using my (tiny, nearly insignificant) website to move markets.  And although there are plenty of specific stocks where I think I might be able to score twice as much of a return, by trading a a widely held index fund the odds of me trading on “inside information” (remember they got Martha Stewart?) are absolutely zero.

The chance to share some insights into how well some of our Peoplenomoics.com subscribers are doing is also not the point.

Rather, the whole point right now is to document for years-hence how we were playing the long-term stock market top that seems to be at hand based on Long Wave Economics.

Why this discussion this morning?  Well, if the market rolls down this afternoon (or in the pre-open tomorrow like -150 or more) we will likely post a “Coping” section here, but we owe our best efforts to Peoplenomics subscribers so we may have another Peoplenomics-only report, but that’s totally dependent on how the market rolls out.

Ideally?

Here’s the wet dream for this week (given my trade that came into view last week).

You know the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets beginning tomorrow and will make a rate decision Wednesday, right?

If you were some of those NE liberals with more money than sense, how would you try to “scare the Fed” right now?

Simple:

You would begin last week by dropping the NASDAQ 113 points.  And then you’d drop it another 50 this morning.  Maybe a a fair bit more tomorrow, we’ll see on that point.

But you’d leave the Dow seemingly unphased.

Here’s what I’d do next:  I would let the Dow collapse in a heap this afternoon and tomorrow.  If it drops as much as the NASDAQ, which seems to pencil out to about a 500 point-ish drop, don’t you think THAT would get the Fed’s attention?

Naturally, the market doesn’t “think” in such explicit terms.  Nor, when comes down to it, does the Market have little “stories” like the one I just laid out.

Instead, there needs to be a patsy…some “reason” that will drive the markets.

To be sure, the markets are not sure what to do since James (slippery lips) Comey didn’t offer a smoking gun to either side int his Trumpstimony last week….and sure, markets around the world are nervous, but is that enough to lay a 400-500 point turd on the desk of the FOMC?

No.

But we should mention that both Germany and France were down 1% when we checked this morning.

Oh, and there is a technical count (channels and Elliott) that suggests the top may be in on BitcoinsSee the chart here and put on some of that nail-biting goo before you look, kiddies.

This is the first (and most important) thing I wanted to lay out for you.  the FOMC is meeting.  The NE media Trump slams are no longer having much effect, and oh, yeah, go look at the Fed Money Stocks report for last week over here.  We won’t do any coaching, but we will offer that you can only b low a balloon up just so far.  Then it’s time to let a little air out.

While you’re sniffing around the Fed site, drop by the Consumer Debt numbers and notice that consumer debt increased only 2.6% in April.

Since markets run of future prospects, as much as current P&L reality, this also hints that some downward adjustment in forward optimism in the markets may be justified.

The Weak Ahead

In the spirit of “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” then, let’s see if we can play “Pin the Drop on the Data” this week, shall we?

With Germany, France, and the Hang Seng all down 1% overnight, obviously a global crisis in confidence might be seen today.

But that wouldn’t explain the Dow collapsing several hundred points, if it does.  So we’d have to inspect the Treasury budget which will be out at 2 PM eastern today.

Tomorrow the field of prospects widens.  Producer Prices could do something unexpected.  Or, William Dudley – scheduled to speak.

This one is significant to us:  We wonder Why would the NY Fed Chief skip[ out on the FOMC meeting to talk about prudential bank risk?

Unless – and this is the $10-trillion dollar question – he has Big Worries about one or more Big Banks.  I mean come on, think about what his taking time out of the FOMC tells us!

Wednesday morning, prior to the Fed decision would also work for a fair shake-up in markets and the leading candidate there will be the Consumer Price report.  A sudden lurch upward of core inflation (inflation less food and energy, which is truly one of the stupidest policy ideas ever – like people don’t eat and buy gas) might do it.

Or, Retail Sales (due out about the same time) could his the “royal flush” and since we already know Consumer Debt started dialing it back in April, a continuation in May – as indicated by the Retail Fails possibility – would certainly be fun, sport, and amusement for those of us holding short side positions.

Again, ideally, the decline here could be large enough to be “concerning” if the Dow synch’s up on the NASDAQ.  Sure, it could go the other way and the techs could come roaring back.

While we could natter on endlessly about <Mainstream Media Idiocy> we prefer, instead, to focus on the one variable that matters.

How to recharge our checking account once the quarter IRS payment leaves here on Wednesday.  *Scroll down to June 15th here for details.

Do we care if Ivanka is talking on blah-blah?  Nope.

Do we care about Conway?  Nope.

Kushner?  Nope?

Or, for that matter, the government in exile’s bid in “D.C. and Maryland to sue President Trump, alleging breach of constitutional oath…”

At some point, perhaps the rest of people out here in fly-over country will see it as clearly as we do:  The snot-for-brains Trump haters have denied the rest of us a working president through their endless (government in exile orchestrated hate campaigns) so when the economy really crashes later this year, I will hark back to what I am telling you this morning:

The Left and Democrats are trying to crash not only Trump but the Whole Economy.  It shouldn’t be too hard – just look how the idea worked on Herbert Hoover going into the last Depression.

So what happens next?  Do we get a Franklin Roosevelt clone to come in and take five terms in office?

My money right now is on Obama returning to run against Trump – remember he’s a constitutional lawyer (not sure which country though, lol) and I’m sure he will find the necessary loophole or run Michelle) or some newly discovered socialist who can be preened and sold to the sheep in 2020 and maybe it will be from the new flock coming up in the congressional elections next year.

Maybe – just maybe – there is another future out there.

The NASA discovery of 10 nearby orbiting asteroid problems is certainly one option.

Welcome Puerto Rico!

We may get a 51st state yet.

After that, how about we invite Mexico and Canada to join?

Not that we need to, but think of the economic opportunities that selling French Street Signs in Sinaloa would bring to the world!  And Spanish government documents for Quebec?  OMG, this is a YUGE business model just waiting to happen.

Whew.  I better take some meds and calm down.

I’m hoping to have a hard couple of days ahead – counting money.  Watching BTC pricing for clues of the fever breaking.

But never forget the late Martin Zweig’s advice:  “Never fight the Fed.”

We shall see…the tape-painters are out in force trying to put lipstick on the overhanging Dow…

Comments

Markets Peaking? Don’t Try This At Home, Kids — 21 Comments

  1. As someone who never voted for Obama, Hillary or Trump I think that the dems are treating trump better than the repubs ever treated Obama.

    I don’t recall the dems having a dinner conference the day of Trump’s inauguration to make plans how to obstruct and overthrow the new president.

    On the night of Barack Obama’s inauguration, a group of top GOP luminaries quietly gathered in a Washington steakhouse to lick their wounds and ultimately create the outline of a plan for how to deal with the incoming administration.

    “The room was filled. It was a who’s who of ranking members who had at one point been committee chairmen, or in the majority, who now wondered out loud whether they were in the permanent minority,” Frank Luntz, who organized the event, told FRONTLINE.
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-republicans-plan-for-the-new-president/

    • Oh, please, the PRESS i.e., the globalists weren’t against Obama, and that’s ALL that needs to be said!

  2. I got a question for you Mr. Ure.

    I don’t know if you know this gentleman or if yall have beers together but Clif High said he is showing (in his predictive linguistics) that Bitcoin is supposed to be on a insane run to the 5 digits ($xx,xxx) by early next year and the flight to safety will be in Crypto Currency. He also said that because of the failure of the dollar (and other world fiat currencies), that event will trigger this. Because of the failure of fiat currencies, corrupt politicians would go after one another like how Diane Feinstein started talking about investigating Hillary Clinton this week… Plus with no bans on Bitcoin and other cryptos, could this be the way of the future? Again, i am wondering what you and others think about this because it is an interesting view of things. I figured i would ask this. Apologies on the length of the message!

    • Who? (I don’t comment on predictions of others, thanks…)

      You can run the data yourself with the openbrain.xls software (master index page, Peoplenomics) and see what you get.

      I think the BTC top is closer – much closer. In fact, there’s a weak (but non-zero chance) the top is already in.

    • Ok, MC, watch it, you are failing your station, this was a trick question! I liked it better when you were ‘acting’ like you were dumb.

  3. I was in my car trying not to spit my coffee out of my nose while listening to todays press briefing on CNN via Sirius radio. The new “BIG IDEA” the WH is touting today is an “Apprenticeship” program. Go figure, the Apprentice star is rolling out a branded TV show as his Big Idea policy to make America Great Again.

    So, he wants companies to have apprentices. Not exactly ground breaking news. My 60 year old uncle said that every President since he could remember has had some sort of apprenticeship program. He was hired by such a program under Jimmy Carter, he told me.

    The thing about having the government encourage and fund such programs is that once again, you will have the con artists using it as an excuse to hire people at a discount. Indentured servitude at its best.

    It is funny though that one of my rants the other day was that Americans as a whole aren’t hirable anymore. SO, I was surprised to hear the Secretary of Labor on the podium today saying exactly those same words. “He stated that there are 6 million jobs available today that many Americans aren’t skilled enough to take them.” This is his excuse for having an Apprenticeship program.

    His Trump branded, Apprenticeship program will be just another re-training program that Democrats have been trying to push through forever. In fact, here is a program from Obama that I pulled from archives.

    From a few years ago.
    “President Obama and the White House through the Department of Labor awarded $175 million in American Apprenticeship Grants to 46 public-private partnerships marrying the efforts of employers, organized labor, non-profits, local governments, and educational institutions to expand high-quality apprenticeships. The winning grantees have pledged to train and hire more than 34,000 new apprentices in high-growth and high-tech industries including health care, IT and advanced manufacturing over the next five years.”

    So, how is Trumps initiative any better? It isn’t. It is the same program, just rebranded under a Reality TV Show name.

    But of course, the Boob in Chief hails it as the first of its kind. The Smoke and Mirrors President is at it again. Aren’t any of you sick of this crap? How do you still stomach this guy?

  4. Earthboppin.net has had some chatter about nasa’s sofia aircraft and unusual filghts last few days and incoming objects cant open express.uk story phone freezes up every time never had that problem before thanks !

    • I am glad you missed me Anon,

      George’s main column is boring. Other than his lame and baseless comment about denying us a working President, there is nothing to comment on. Trump couldn’t get anything done if we gave him a clear path. He is too stupid and disorganized. And, isn’t opposition and the ultimate goal of conciliation part of the job anyway? He has proven by his inane tweets, that isn’t capable of solutions, only creating disruptive and ultimately destructive problems that both sides can’t deal with.

      Trump has a disease and it shows more and more each day. He is the classic Greek tragedy, in the embodiment of Narcissus. According to mythology, The Greek figure, Nemesis noticed Narcissus self loving behavior and attracted Narcissus to a pool, where he saw his own reflection in the water and fell in love with it, not realizing it was merely an image. Unable to leave the beauty of his reflection, Narcissus lost his will to live. He stared at his reflection until he died.

      Trump is being broken down daily by the media not being in love with him. Today his daughter lamented that ‘there was a level of viciousness” that she wasn’t expecting in government. What? Her fathers entire campaign was vicious. Name calling, contentious statements etc.

      This family is living in a bubble. The Trump family is used to an autocratic style of running a privately held company. The Trumps can say as many stupid things as they want as owners of a company without being challenged, because that challenge could mean a loss of ones job.

      Not so with governing. The media can challenge without consequence and bring out the truth because they don’t report to the President. In fact the President reports to us. And, Trump can’t handle that. His every word is recorded into history. He can’t deny or be involved in he said, she said scenarios anymore. What he says is now public record and the media is not unfairly ganging up on him. They are just reminding him that his words most often contradictory.

      • Regardless of your perspective, I have great respect for President Donald J. Trump and his accomplishments so far. He as done a great deal to roll back the socialist distortions of the obama “administration”, and would have done far more to improve our country’s status if it wasn’t for the seditious dereliction of duty by the congress, the courts, and the embedded traitorous bureaucrats. One man can’t do it all, and he does have flaws, as have we all. He is an American and acts like one, and that brings honor to our country! He’s never apologized for our mere existence, unlike his predecessor. He’s not given away any of our territory, unlike the former occupant in chief. I’m with George in hoping that we can save our country from the corruption that’s become endemic within all three branches.

  5. It’ll be semiopaque when things start shaking like a trucker’s truck coming to close to your house
    yep it’s earthquake time hold on to your britches, make sure those suspenders are,LOL, have a good day, may all beings be lovingly fulfilled, so be it

  6. George,

    Didn’t I read somewhere the Puerto Rico was nearing bankruptcy [having been in an economic depression for 11 solid years]? It just figures: a protectorate that has traditionally enjoyed the percs of a 51st state [such as military protection and paying negligable US income taxes] while the populace has contributed little and tradionally thumbed their collective noses at us and resisted statehood now wants same. But, with the current referendum passing with only 23% of the Puerto Rican’s even voting, the overall attitude certainly hasn’t changed. Unemployment sits at 13.7% and 45% of the island population currently live below the poverty line. Guess who will pick up that slack? Of the two industries that show consistent, steady growth one is PETS! They may not be able to feed their people but by God they love their Cats, Dogs and Parakeets!

    So, now if statehood should become a reality- we will be fully saddled with their foundering economy while our own is already teetering on the brink. And there’s no way in Hell Puerto Rico can ever export enough Rum or canned Tuna to help us out along the way.

    Can someone please tell me how PR statehood would actually benefit the U.S. beyond mere expansionism? Hell: the cost of replacing every stars-and-stripes alone will be staggering and that’s just the tiniest tip of an iceberg which will melt very, very slowly while drowning the U.S. even more.

    Ideally, it seems to me that the inclusion of another state into our Republic should be by popular vote of our own citizens and not left up to a Congressional decision – particularly since D.C. is populated by the biggest bunch of zealots in recent memory.

    Of course, it should be very easy to make the whole issue go away: all Trump has to do is say he’s in favor of PR statehood. Congress would quickly condemn this, ramp up the rhetoric and vote the entire thing down or just talk it to death until even that 23% back in San Juan changes their minds. Now, there’s a winning scenario!

  7. “denied us a working President”? Don’t be fooled, if the shoe was on the other foot and Hillary won, we would all be doing the same ‘denying’ from the other direction — investigations into email, Clinton foundation funding by foreign entities, the uranium deal etc. No matter who won, we would be in the same position, maybe worse since the House and Senate stayed Republican vs a Dem if Hillary had one. It just must be our ‘time’ to have this political turmoil no matter who is in and who is out.

  8. George,

    Sorry to burst your hopes, but by constitutional amendment – for any president -it’s two four-year terms – and that’s it. If Michelle Obama wishes to run for president – she could . . . but after the experience of ‘never held public office before’ President Donald Trump, no one would vote for another ‘newbie’ for the office.

    And if someone wanted to change the terms of office to be president, it would take years to accomplish; most proposed amendments ‘die on the vine’, so to speak.

    MDS

  9. Interesting that in the latest Gallup poll 66% thinks that congress is corrupt, but yet 32% thinks that theirs aren’t lol guess those folks just can’t stand the fact that they voted for a crook..

    • If you voted for a CONgress person…you voted for a crook. End of Story.