A lot of people spend inordinate amounts of time worrying about “conventional” prepping. And while that is often a good thing, it can also be one huge distraction that will keep you from making maximum money in this lifetime…
Last week I posted my latest stock trade publicly – something I don’t usually do. You can find it in “Like Shooting Fish, Or Do Fish Shoot Back…” over here.
This morning – with the Dow futures pointing down 33 when I looked, but more importantly the NASDAQ Composite looking to open down another 50 points, we might just come up with “lunch money” on this trade, after all.
Don’t misunderstand: I don’t post my personal trades *(just after I have done them) very often. I don’t want to be accused of using my (tiny, nearly insignificant) website to move markets. And although there are plenty of specific stocks where I think I might be able to score twice as much of a return, by trading a a widely held index fund the odds of me trading on “inside information” (remember they got Martha Stewart?) are absolutely zero.
The chance to share some insights into how well some of our Peoplenomoics.com subscribers are doing is also not the point.
Rather, the whole point right now is to document for years-hence how we were playing the long-term stock market top that seems to be at hand based on Long Wave Economics.
Why this discussion this morning? Well, if the market rolls down this afternoon (or in the pre-open tomorrow like -150 or more) we will likely post a “Coping” section here, but we owe our best efforts to Peoplenomics subscribers so we may have another Peoplenomics-only report, but that’s totally dependent on how the market rolls out.
Here’s the wet dream for this week (given my trade that came into view last week).
You know the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets beginning tomorrow and will make a rate decision Wednesday, right?
If you were some of those NE liberals with more money than sense, how would you try to “scare the Fed” right now?
You would begin last week by dropping the NASDAQ 113 points. And then you’d drop it another 50 this morning. Maybe a a fair bit more tomorrow, we’ll see on that point.
But you’d leave the Dow seemingly unphased.
Here’s what I’d do next: I would let the Dow collapse in a heap this afternoon and tomorrow. If it drops as much as the NASDAQ, which seems to pencil out to about a 500 point-ish drop, don’t you think THAT would get the Fed’s attention?
Naturally, the market doesn’t “think” in such explicit terms. Nor, when comes down to it, does the Market have little “stories” like the one I just laid out.
Instead, there needs to be a patsy…some “reason” that will drive the markets.
To be sure, the markets are not sure what to do since James (slippery lips) Comey didn’t offer a smoking gun to either side int his Trumpstimony last week….and sure, markets around the world are nervous, but is that enough to lay a 400-500 point turd on the desk of the FOMC?
But we should mention that both Germany and France were down 1% when we checked this morning.
Oh, and there is a technical count (channels and Elliott) that suggests the top may be in on Bitcoins. See the chart here and put on some of that nail-biting goo before you look, kiddies.
This is the first (and most important) thing I wanted to lay out for you. the FOMC is meeting. The NE media Trump slams are no longer having much effect, and oh, yeah, go look at the Fed Money Stocks report for last week over here. We won’t do any coaching, but we will offer that you can only b low a balloon up just so far. Then it’s time to let a little air out.
While you’re sniffing around the Fed site, drop by the Consumer Debt numbers and notice that consumer debt increased only 2.6% in April.
Since markets run of future prospects, as much as current P&L reality, this also hints that some downward adjustment in forward optimism in the markets may be justified.
The Weak Ahead
In the spirit of “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” then, let’s see if we can play “Pin the Drop on the Data” this week, shall we?
With Germany, France, and the Hang Seng all down 1% overnight, obviously a global crisis in confidence might be seen today.
But that wouldn’t explain the Dow collapsing several hundred points, if it does. So we’d have to inspect the Treasury budget which will be out at 2 PM eastern today.
Tomorrow the field of prospects widens. Producer Prices could do something unexpected. Or, William Dudley – scheduled to speak.
This one is significant to us: We wonder Why would the NY Fed Chief skip[ out on the FOMC meeting to talk about prudential bank risk?
Unless – and this is the $10-trillion dollar question – he has Big Worries about one or more Big Banks. I mean come on, think about what his taking time out of the FOMC tells us!
Wednesday morning, prior to the Fed decision would also work for a fair shake-up in markets and the leading candidate there will be the Consumer Price report. A sudden lurch upward of core inflation (inflation less food and energy, which is truly one of the stupidest policy ideas ever – like people don’t eat and buy gas) might do it.
Or, Retail Sales (due out about the same time) could his the “royal flush” and since we already know Consumer Debt started dialing it back in April, a continuation in May – as indicated by the Retail Fails possibility – would certainly be fun, sport, and amusement for those of us holding short side positions.
Again, ideally, the decline here could be large enough to be “concerning” if the Dow synch’s up on the NASDAQ. Sure, it could go the other way and the techs could come roaring back.
While we could natter on endlessly about <Mainstream Media Idiocy> we prefer, instead, to focus on the one variable that matters.
How to recharge our checking account once the quarter IRS payment leaves here on Wednesday. *Scroll down to June 15th here for details.
Do we care if Ivanka is talking on blah-blah? Nope.
Do we care about Conway? Nope.
Or, for that matter, the government in exile’s bid in “D.C. and Maryland to sue President Trump, alleging breach of constitutional oath…”
At some point, perhaps the rest of people out here in fly-over country will see it as clearly as we do: The snot-for-brains Trump haters have denied the rest of us a working president through their endless (government in exile orchestrated hate campaigns) so when the economy really crashes later this year, I will hark back to what I am telling you this morning:
The Left and Democrats are trying to crash not only Trump but the Whole Economy. It shouldn’t be too hard – just look how the idea worked on Herbert Hoover going into the last Depression.
So what happens next? Do we get a Franklin Roosevelt clone to come in and take five terms in office?
My money right now is on Obama returning to run against Trump – remember he’s a constitutional lawyer (not sure which country though, lol) and I’m sure he will find the necessary loophole or run Michelle) or some newly discovered socialist who can be preened and sold to the sheep in 2020 and maybe it will be from the new flock coming up in the congressional elections next year.
Maybe – just maybe – there is another future out there.
The NASA discovery of 10 nearby orbiting asteroid problems is certainly one option.
Welcome Puerto Rico!
After that, how about we invite Mexico and Canada to join?
Not that we need to, but think of the economic opportunities that selling French Street Signs in Sinaloa would bring to the world! And Spanish government documents for Quebec? OMG, this is a YUGE business model just waiting to happen.
Whew. I better take some meds and calm down.
I’m hoping to have a hard couple of days ahead – counting money. Watching BTC pricing for clues of the fever breaking.
But never forget the late Martin Zweig’s advice: “Never fight the Fed.”
We shall see…the tape-painters are out in force trying to put lipstick on the overhanging Dow…