Markets Mull Sunni-Qaeda’ed Friday, Gas Lines Ahead?

Would it be paranoid to begin thinking about gas lines in late August or September?  Perhaps not.

So we begin this morning with two major data points:  the first being Grady’s latest read of our word frequency analysis over at www.nostracodeus.com.  And, as he notes in Thursday’s post, our June 22-23 hot date range is looking, well, hotter if anything.

Let’s go to a contributed comment from our military affairs expert (handle: warhammer) whose opinions I value because when it comes to war-gaming, he’s the real deal and has “been there, done that” along the spectrum from weather warfare to cyber attacks.   I may not agree with many of his positions, but the analysis is always rock solid, fact based.

George,

This could be the start of something . . . BIG!

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140618/DEFREG04/306180032/Dempsey-Iraq-Has-Requested-US-Airstrikes

I tend to think it is important because America alone did not decide to deploy airpower against the brutally effective ISIS armies.  Instead, the Iraqi government requested U.S. airpower to hopefully help stem the tide of ISIS progress and perhaps even gain back some lost territory.  I’ll bet dollars to donuts that the U.S. administration is not getting supportive emails from the Saudi royals, who are Sunni.  I’ll explain.

Led largely by seasoned al Sunni Qaeda fighters, ISIS has coalesced an impressive swath of territory ranging from Syria deep into Iraq.  The gains by ISIS threaten Shi’ite Iran’s world view and their holy vision of shepherding-in the Mahdi, or hidden Imam, to form a unified Islamic Caliphate that will eventually rule the entire world.

Thus the Saudi-led Sunni and the Iranian-led Shi’ite Muslims have a huge rift between them, not just in Iraq, but across the entire Middle East and deep into Southern and South Eastern Asia.  One-time staunch U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, the geo-center of Islamic Sunni faith, is increasingly finding itself pitted against Shi’ite led Iran through proxy wars and regional conflicts.  Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have already joined into the fray to various degrees, with Egypt, Libya, Turkey, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Yemen and Oman staring down the barrel of a primed canon loaded for a ravenous, long-lasting religious civil war.

If the U.S. offers air support to Iraq to stop the Sunni-led ISIS fighters, America finds itself indirectly supporting Saudi Arabia’s regional arch enemy Iran.  In what might be considered the international equivalent of ‘strange bedfellows,’ Israel could find itself loosely allied with Saudi Arabia and ISIS in confronting regional Shi’ite militants in Lebanon and Syria, for as the old Arab proverb goes, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

I think Iraq is proving to be pivotal.  The eventual outcome will determine whether the entire region becomes an Islamic version of the 30+ year long English War of the Roses, consuming each nation in a savage religious civil war, and perhaps whether Iran or Saudi Arabia definitively ascends to regional political and religious prominence.  Both sides are willing to fight to the death – there could be a lot of that going around before this is all over.

If you have some time this weekend, and you’re looking for a deeper understanding of things, I’d suggest the Wikipedia entry on the Iran-Iraq War as a good starting point.  Long before the US got into defending Iraq, the parties were duking it out for 8-years, 1980-1988.

Additional background may be had from the Wiki discussion of the Ba’ath party.  As you may know, one of the outcomes of the Iraq invasion/war[s] was the reduction of the party’s influence regionally.  While its slogan “Unity, liberty, socialism” no doubt stuck in the craw of hawkish interests in the region, it did provide something of a buffer between the Shi’ite and Sunni theocratic governments to the northeast and south of Iraq.

Incorrect assessments of socio-religious affinity levels, versus socio-political allegiances has really screwed things up.  Compounded by American policy idiocracy, of course.  Credit where due. 

A second article to consider was Wednesday’s Peoplenomics.com report, where I outlined the geographical boundaries of the “New [global] Caliphate” that has the Saudis at the center of things.  One of the key points is that “political boundaries” are what’s on maps fed to the populous, but the maps of affinity groups, Shiite, Bath, Sunni…these are the boundary zones for conflict.

This all could have a huge impact on your personal net worth:  We have some evidence (recent housing start data) that housing’s recovery may be slowing. But have you been watching gold and silver?

And thanks to  readers who  are sending us signals – small observations like this one – that hint government is beginning to stockpile a bit; quietly and perhaps just under the perception threshold.

A lot of military vehicles on the road  . Not unusual for this time of year since Fort A. P. Hill is training National guard this time of year. What is unusual  is all the military fuel transports. Every day and all day. Some strange military equipment also being transported that Haven’t seen before. Dominion Power taking delivery of 1 million gallons + of fuel for  its local cogeneration facility.  In the past when they top off ,it means fuel prices are about to go up.

So we see a number of highly conflicted indicators:  Oil is up, as expected, there is huge safe-haven buying and gold and silver, and the market is up, too, because (in part) the US dollar is going down now.

So perhaps the most reliable indicator to watch will be the CBOE 10-year Treasury Note, symbol ^TNX.  If interest rates break above 3%, then a major market decline could visit us.  But as long as rates are in the 2.70 and below range, the market may still have legs.

The precious metals are a special case:  Silver this morning was trying to close in on the $21 level while gold looks to be solidly over $1,300 and a target of $1,400 (or higher) may be reasonable.  The “first things” section of Peoplenomics tomorrow will run though an interesting (though highly speculative) way of ball parking how far the metals could go.

In the quiet dawn of a quiet summer weekend,  markets look reasonable stable.  But that can all change in a headline.  Perhaps some indication or worry levels may be inferred from how prices hold up for stock late today.  If the perceived risk is high enough, we may see a sell-off going into the weekend if the Sunday-Tuesday period next week .looks too dicey.

While Elaine and I are pondering the “{drive or fly) decision for our August visit to the Pacific Northwest, a lot will hinge of Middle East developments in coming weeks.  When we made our plans, things like gas lines were not remotely in our thinking.  But now that ISIS is in play and American policy is in flux, such distasteful possibilities need to be considered.

More after this…

image

Immigration:  The Doublespeak Festival

The rest of the news flow is otherwise pretty much boring rehash on topics like immigration.  Hearing how angry some of the democorp base is (now that the problem of illegals is showing up in NYC and other demo strongholds) there is talk (but talk only) that the illegal hoards will not be able to say.

Check me here, but isn’t think what we’ve been hearing since the 1950’s?

Sheriff Joe says it’s intentional dumping on Arizona (no kidding), and there are reports that frustrated CBP agents are trying to get out…leave the force.  (Thank you for your service. Sorry about the idiots up the food chain.)

The answer is simple:  Dump illegals into the Mexican consulates (see the phone book for the one nearest you.)  Ditto the other S.A. source countries.

We either get some game on here, or west Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California will join their more closely aligned states: Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon.

And you’ll be able to read all about it in the revised history books that will list:

The Mexican–American War, also known as the Mexican War, the U.S.–Mexican War, the Invasion of Mexico, the U.S. Intervention, or the United States War Against Mexico, was an armed conflict between the United States and the Centralist Republic of Mexico (which reestablished its 1824 federal constitution during the war, becoming the Second Federal Republic of Mexico) from 1846 to 1848 in the wake of the 1845 U.S. annexation of Texas, which Mexico considered part of its territory despite the 1836 Texas Revolution.  Mexico finally won the war in 2017 when west Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California were subsumed to 200-miles into the former US territory.

Confused?  Look at some of the “Border XXI” (Boarder 21) agenda paperwork.  This is the official stuff that percolates up from empiring agencies like EPA.

This is all part of a UN globally coordinated effort to drive people offs semi-rural lands and back in to the big city cores where they can be more easily controlled.  Washington political hacks have bargained away our US autonomy; nice, huh?  Both political parties have sold us out.

But don’t take my word for it, froggy.  You’re being slow-boiled and you seem to be comfortable with that.

Disease Notes

Up to 75 scientists may have been exposed to anthrax. No one is showing symptoms yet.


Enjoy the weekend – Dow seems set to pop about 30 at the open.  More Monday, right here.  Peoplenomics will project out some gold and silver prices for subscribers tomorrow…be well.

Comments are closed.