Markets: How Far is Down?

The market is going to rally this morning – and it might even make it back up to 1,840 on the S&P.  But we play the long game around here, and so we begin this morning with a very somber outlook for markets, except as our Peoplenomics subscribers have known for weeks, it won’t be somber around here because anyone with half a brain can make as much (or more) money when markets are going down, compared to when they are going up.  It’s just that that the American public has been hoodwinked into thinking that taking the short side is somehow bad.  Truth is:  Your money doesn’t give a shit.  It goes to the people who make the “right” bet, not the ever-higher economy pap that’s sold by politicians and hucksters; if it’s not too early to draw a distinction between ‘em.

We look at some comments from a “couple of Robins” to get things rolling:  Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service offers this (in small part) to his readers:

This is the absolute worst set-up I have ever seen in my life!  DJI at 4000? Yes! Very possible in the next two weeks.

I am not an astrologer. I am not a numerologist. I just look for anomalies that foreshadow big and unusual events in the stock market.  To quote Bob Dylan, “You don’t need to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing.” And if there are dark clouds on the horizon, it is time to “seek shelter from the storm”.

Things have already started happening that I predicted, and could take the DJI down a few thousand points IF the Stock Exchange is not closed.

The issue, he notes is the Cardinal Cross where Pluto goes retrograde and Mars kicks it up a notch around the 21st, so our April 23 “duck date” may be pretty good.  Especially with the battle of words over Ukraine that (in Energizer bunny fashion) just keeps going, and going, and…

The other Robin who always has a a fine perspective on things is Robin Landry who manages client money from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma, which he decided long ago was better than the big city rat race.

Landry’s view is less influenced by the headlines, the starts, or any of the rest of it:  He just looks pragmatically at his charts and when it comes to Elliott waves, I put Landry in the same league with Bob Prechter, but without so many calls about the “big one” is here.

Landry’s approach is very measured:  As of last week, he was expecting a bit of resistance in the 1805-1810 levels on the S&P, but at that time his indicators were suggesting that these could fall quickly which leaves us at the 1,740-1,750 levels as the next target zone.  “We’ll just take it one step at a time, George,” is one of his favorite remarks when I pencil out scenarios several wave movements ahead.  He’s been a great teacher.

I’ve outlined what I expect after that for Peoplenomics subscribers, but we’ll see how it all works out in coming weeks.  the main (free advice) is not to over-trade when the volatility is picking up.  That just makes the House and their HFT buddies rich.  Focus on making a few really good trades and then let the market come to you.

In a nutshell, though, and without the trading targets I’m looking at, let’s just say that we should get close to a shooting wave this week (into options expiration), then a breakthrough for peace maybe next week, and then a month or so later, mid to late May, perhaps.  And then the crappola ought to hit the round rotating thing.

The news headlines are going to drive this week.  We’ve got retail this morning, Consumer Prices tomorrow along with the Empire Manufacturing report, housing starts Wednesday…why just all kinds of numbers to hang our hats on.  But the international news – particularly out of eastern Europe could weigh, because Russia is on the verge of shutting off gas supplies to Ukraine.  No tickie, no gassy.  So off into the data to see what’s afoot:

America Saved by Auto Sales, Again!

New retail sales figures are out this morning and gee, look surprised at this one:

imageThe U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $433.9 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the
previous month, and 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above March 2013. Total sales for the January 2014 through March 2014 period were up 2.5 percent
(±0.4%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2014 to February 2014 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.7
percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from February 2014, and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle
dealers were up 9.5 percent (±3.2%) from March 2013 and nonstore retailers were up 7.8 percent (±2.5%) from last year.

With retail kicking it, the Dow futures have popped up about 50 but developments in Ukraine will weigh…

More after this…last chance to hit tomorrow’s income tax  deadline…

(You might be able to order today, overnight the s/w, work until late tomorrow night, and still hit the deadline…good luck being that guy.)

Ranch Stand Down

Could it be that the Feds actually have some brainpower?   The Feds have backed down (for now only) on the Cliven Bundy case up northeast of Las Vegas.  Slogans abound including “Control our borders, not our ranchers…”

There are two or three observations here which are key going forward to keep ahead of unwinding events…

1.  Along with the BLM pulling back the huge force it had gathered around the Bundy ranch, I checked the FAA’s website and the temporary flight restrictions in the area have been lifted.  So the pullback is across the board.

2. You are not the only one to notice that the pullback came after it was learned that a former aid to senator Harry Reid of Nevada was pressing for a Chinese company to put a big solar installation in the region…

The Washington Times notes the “Nevada ranch standoff could leave dirt on Harry Reid’s reputation…”  His what?

3.  Government seldom gives up this easily.  I’d venture this is only settled for the moment…and the heist will resume as soon as the media is distracted by something else.

We haven’t run out any cycle studies on similar events in the past.  We would suggest that you look at the interest in the story in Google Trends, over here, and expect federal action to occur when the downside of the story appears in the trend study.

Google Trends doesn’t go back far enough to look at events like Waco/Branch Dividian, so we have to sort of putt here.  Figure however long it takes for the Feds to run facial recognition on everyone who showed up in support of the Bundys, and time for a Grand Jury to be empaneled and come up with some kind of conspiracy to obstruct, or whatever, and then a snap decision to show We the People who the boss is.

I give it 120 days, more or less, but we’ll see how it all rolls out.  Our 146 day “murder cycloe” might be interesting to watch, as well.

Sub Search

Check me here, but aren’t we a month and a half into this MH370 search and just NOW a submarine with grown-up robotics and sound/video is ambling off to have a sniff ?

How much “made up” wreckage could be planted in a month and a half while the airplane might have gone to the Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan border area?  Good grief…

Blood on the Blood Moon

While we sit around waiting to see if “four blood moons” foretell a “world shaking event” as some have claimed, we do know the population of crazy people hasn’t gone down.

So up at a Kansas City Jewish Center a lone gunman about 70 walks in, spouts some Nazi stuff, and manages to kill two (non Jews) while wounding others.  A third victim was shot and killed nearby.

More Quakes to Come?

imageA couple of things to mention, now that we’re into a planetary alignment that seems to be setting off a good number of quakes:

A reader following out www.nostracodeus.com site project sent us this:

 

Hello Mr. Ure,

Oarfish filmed off the coast of Mexico.  2 minute footage here:    In an effort to validate the video I found that Weather.com also has a short segment on this video with the underwater footage from the 1st link above.

I tried to post on the Nostracodeus page with the Oarfish prediction noted but an error occurred.

The first link is the a video taken by folks at a beach along Baja Mexico.  Fantastic footage!!!  The person taking the video actually questions if the Oarfish is trying to beach itself.

Hope this is helpful to the Nostracodeus effort!!

Given that the oarfish report was from last week and we haven’t had a major SoCal quake, (we insert the word YET) we have to wonder if there might be something more to come in the way of 7+ quake adventures this month.

And Keeps on Ticking

The clock is on in Ukraine where a Monday deadline, set out by the government in Kiev has passed and the demonstrators in support of Russia are not giving up on their hold of government buildings.

The BBC reports a fresh pro-Russian attack, so monitoring the news channels is likely your best source for up to the minute action here.  The longer term strategic impacts are what we worry about most…and we’ll size them up as they come into view.

For now the main thing is to keep in mind that “has you by the nuts” is more like “has Europe by the pipelines” that bring in natural gas from Russia.  The question of whether/when/how it escalates to full-on war is something we’ll have to ask our war gaming consultant to look into.  How might it play out?  Tick-tock….and as I said earlier: No tickie, no gassy.

I look for the market to rally a good bit this morning but overall, for the week, it sure feels like Monday, don’t it?

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