Markets: False Drama, Predictable People


So like I told you on Monday of this week (I hate to quote myself, but here it comes…)

“In the meantime, there is little point to getting worked up about the news this morning:  The futures were up about a hundred on the Dow when I looked, but by Friday, says our model, we should be flat to down a tad for the week.”

Behold the data:  The S&P, which opened Monday at 1,960.84.  By my reckoning, we should end today right about where we closed Tuesday (which would be a perfect down a little) at about 1,942.74.

Yes, the S&P experienced a momentary melt to 1,908.92.  But I’m holding to my expectation that the market will close today somewhere between 1,940 an d 1,950 that I told you about four morning’s back.

Please don’t take umbrage if I point out that the S&P closed yesterday at 1,932.24 or at my mention of the futures being up almost 27 points.

Ure going to be off!  That would put the S&P almost at 1,960 or better!  Ure an idiot!”

Hahahahaha!  No, my friend, remember that this is Friday and a little money will come off the table, more than likely, since traders have bar tabs to pay like everyone else.  I’ll stick with my outlook, thanks.

Now that I feel like I have the markets comfortably “dialed in” it should be interesting to see if I can make a few bucks on next week’s big rally.

What big rally?”

Come back and I’ll tell you Monday.

The point this morning is that after 40-years of occasional investing (money-sniping) I believe I may actually be getting the hang of this market stuff..  Tomorrow’s report will be the second part of our Q4 outlook.

In the meantime, the only advice left to dispense this week is to remember that in markets, there’s a lot of “false drama” (*which made this week and next so predictable) and that means that yes, People are predictable, too.  At least when averaged in herd-sized groups.

Which we as a country is.

GDP/Spaghetti for Breakfast

Quick!  What is move convoluted than Hillary trying to slither and snake out of her email lies?

Why it’s the government GDP report just out and hot off the press today…

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.7 percent. With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 2). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, after increasing 0.6 percent in the first. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an upturn in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in private inventory investment and in federal government spending. “

What’s more, when you dig in deeper…

Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced — increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first. 

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.  

Bad news for the Schmita promoters again. Doggoneit, there we go again.

And here’s another one:  The Baltic Dry shipping index has failed to collapse.  922 on the index as of yesterday and hardly screaming “End times!”

Not that they are out of the running yet.  The current GDP is  $17.914  trillion and the current (jiggered horribly) U.S. Debt to the Penny is $18.151 trillion, so we’re all waltzing on the Titanic when comes down to it.  We’re bankrupt (debt exceeds income) but so long as no one goes door smashing with nukes, trying to collect on it, everything is…er…fine…

Latest Bitcoin Hype

Love this:  Now it’s Mike Tyson who is quoted as being “Grateful to be part of the Bitcoin revolution.”

Ure’s deep economic reality check here:  Which boxer do you think has made more money in the products they have endorsed?

Choice #1:  How much has Mike Tyson made in Bitcoins?

Choice #2:  George Foreman’s grills made the old fashioned way with a great manufactured product?

While I’m deep in the analytic trance, please hold the rope-a-dope remarks to yourself, please. 

Bitcoins: Sting like currency, spend like a flea.

Foreign Affairs

From frequent contributor and former oak leaf cluster fellow warhammer:

The U.S. president has firmly stuck his head in the sand with regard to Russia, thereby fully exposing his thinking parts. The problem is, the rest of America will have to deal with Obama’s Ostrich foreign policy if or when the executive office finally pulls it’s head out of the ground.

Russia is laying claim to the Middle East.

Maybe that’s OK, though.  Since the Middle East is moving to Europe.

Which get’s me to this slice from Grady manning our time machine/linguistic skimmer over at  Keep an eye on France with word strings like these:

China Pope crisis Government kills Paris leader President risk French war

Egypt Government fire Paris debate President ready French attack Factory central

Europe Government crisis Paris kills President leader French risk Factory war

Japan Paris fire President debate French ready Factory attack Leaders central

Africa Paris crisis President kills French leader Factory risk Leaders war

Asia President fire French debate Factory ready Leaders attack Result central

France President crisis French kills Factory leader Leaders risk Result war

Syria French fire Factory debate Leaders ready Result attack Remove central

Russia French crisis Factory kills Leaders leader Result risk Remove war

Chinas Factory fire Leaders debate Result ready Remove attack People central

Grady’s whipping up a “turn this into sentences for the lazy analyst, please) coding now.

Oh Ship!

But the main thing to do right now is to link the concept of Syria/Russia to France because the French have just stiffed the Russians.

Remember, those two Mistral war ships France had built for the Russians?  When the US State Department blew up the Ukraine crisis promoting the Megolos of the EU, France got on board with the sanctions against Russia by telling them they couldn’t buy those ships after all.

Now – fast forward many months – and we see the French have found a buyer:  Egypt.

This is plain insanity at its finest.  The French apparently can’t remember their internal Muslim uprisings, the flooding immigration problem, and so they now turn around and sell a Muslim country with hold over a vital waterway ships which put a little more teeth into their ownership of The Canal.

More than ever, I’m convinced Western foreign policy is a result of roulette wheel spins rather than thoughtful analysis.

Yeah, we need Russia to be bad boys to shore up our military industrial complex, but we saddle up to the convert or die crowd?>>  I must be missing something, but I’m not sure what.

Oh! Wait.  Here it is…. The whole frigging world is INSANE!  That’s it…now it all fits.

Pope Poop

Selling the United Nutjobs on climate change and over-running borders today. Should be an easy sell.

Contrition is still missing in action as pointed out in my Thursday reflux.

Media Munching

Not to pick on the NBC folks, but I don’t know sometimes about the headline writers.

Try this on:  “Suspected Tornado Hits Johns Island in South Carolina, Severely Damaging Homes.”

Let’s be logical here:  12 homes were damaged and 3,500 were without power from violent weather in the area.  Yet, the word “suspected” begins the story frame.

Hmmmm.  Yes, I can see how it is not “Small Tornado” since it could have been an attack by off-world spacecraft operating under instrument conditions.  OR it could have been more of those exploding ham sandwiches that have been such a problem in South Carolina, lately.

To me (when I get to this part of the caffeine on-rush) I just look at headlines a bit too cynically, I suppose.  It’s sort of like calling Charles Manson an alleged murderer at some point.

I’m going to go hang our in the hangar and put some prop polish on while I ponder the meaning of life.  Have a great weekend.  We’ll be having a “Not Your Father’s Root Beer” on the screen porch later on.

Vanilla ice cream and beer…is this a Great Country, or what?

Happy Friday and Benediction time:

May the government bless you and entitle you, and make it’s cash to flow upon you, and give you Big Piece.


Markets: False Drama, Predictable People — 12 Comments

  1. George, be careful, thinking you understand the markets and those who run it may lead to pain and suffering. It might be better to state that you’ve had a fortunate run so far dipping into their pockets. You know how they love to change the rules when too many figure out their game. What’s that (in)famous disclosure ? Past performance is no indication of future results. Happy pilfering in the meantime.

  2. Beer and vanilla ice cream? Not together. Like a bowl of ice cream and a beer right? Not in the same vessel like a root beer float, right? Have you gotten Alexa to make that for you?

    Almost sounds as bad as my favorite crunchy peanut butter and sliced tomatoes with salt and lots of black pepper on rye. With beer. Don’t knock it till you try it is what they say. But I don’t know about beer and ice cream… In the same vessel…. Like a float. I don’t know.

  3. From the desk of warhammer (everything looks like a Rooskie nail):
    “Russia is laying claim to the Middle East”???

    Seriously? Hyperbole much? How dare those Rooskies come to the defense of a country in their sphere-of-influence. Don’t they know that the ME is OUR turf? We spent good money giving those ISIS boys all those shiny new Toyota technicals and making sure their supply routes through Turkey, Jordan, et al stay intact. It’s not fair!!!

    • Oh, that was a good one. I saw a story where the headline was ‘Russia is going to destabilize Syria,says those currently destabilizing Syria’. Reading warhammer is good though…you get an idea where MIC/Corpgov is going.

  4. You noted the US debt to the penny as being $18.151 trillion. On March 9, 2015, the debt first crossed $18.150 trillion. Since then, it has meandered around $18.151 trillion.

    We either solved our debt problem suddenly and convincingly or the Treasury is playing games with other funds to hide the true deficit for a while. When congress sets a new debt ceiling, the debt will take a huge step upward.

    Reader ‘h’ noted “that the deficit dropped by two thirds over the past six years.” Here’s the debt to the penny on September 30 for the last 8 years. The difference in yearly total debt is the “true” cash balance deficit. This includes all the off-budget expenditures, but not the scheduled payment deficits from social security, medicare, etc.

    Date Total Public Debt Yearly Deficit
    09/30/2008 10,024,724,896,912.49
    09/30/2009 11,909,829,003,511.75 -1,885,104,106,599.26
    09/30/2010 13,561,623,030,891.79 -1,651,794,027,380.04
    09/30/2011 14,790,340,328,557.15 -1,228,717,297,665.36
    09/28/2012 16,066,241,407,385.89 -1,275,901,078,828.74
    09/30/2013 16,738,183,526,697.32 -671,942,119,311.43
    09/30/2014 17,824,071,380,733.82 -1,085,887,854,036.50
    09/23/2015 18,151,073,040,341.31 -327,001,659,607.49

    Note that congress was playing the debt ceiling game in 2013 as well. It made 2014’s deficit appear larger. The same will happen to 2016’s deficit. Since the shenanigans started on March 9th, the “best” guess at a current yearly deficit would be the yearly difference on that day.

    03/10/2014 17,495,622,444,209.79
    03/09/2015 18,150,077,808,750.34 -654,455,364,540.55

    Reader ‘h’ is right. The deficit has been reduced by about two thirds in the last six years. The debt is still growing faster than GDP. At what point does it become too much? What happens then?

    I hear politicians pat themselves on the back for reducing the deficit by 2/3. It went from astronomical to just outlandish. The sheeple applaud without knowing what it really means. This isn’t going to end well.

  5. You might say ” Mike’s going to take a bite outta bitcoin”

    I took my bite out long ago bought at 90 sold at 700, have a nice day.

  6. It may not be a tornado; we’ve had “straight line winds” which do the same damage. Not sure how that affects home insurance payouts.

  7. It’s sort of like calling Charles Manson an alleged murderer at some point.

    George, if memory serves, Charlie wasn’t accused of murder (he wasn’t present when/where the Tate LoBianco murders took place). I think it was alleged that he planned the killings. Dave McGowan wrote a great book on the subject.

  8. Just a caution on your definition of “bankrupt”…. Debt exceeding income is true for just about every family headed by those below the age of 50, every company (debt to income of 5-1 is relatively healthy for most industries), and every government. Income is an annual number, not a total. This ranks up there with the idiots who keep saying the deficit (another annual number, equal to negative income) is going up when it has dropped by two thirds over the past six years.

    • 5-1 being a healthy ratio might be nice but the federal governments annual income is about 2.2 trillion and its debt is 16 plus all the pensions and other guarantees it has. So at a minimum the Feds debt to income ratio is 7-1 give or take at worst 20+++-1 if goverent debt is 50 trillion as some estimates put it.