Let me see, where were we? Ah, yes, I was explaining how a nation’s I Q could be inferred by looking at how markets perform. And since the US decline was greater than others we reviewed on Thursday morning, we’ll have to take this as a sure-fire indicator that all this “least common denominator crap” on television and other media is certainly paying off for the PTB.
The biggest loser though, was Argentina. Their Merval index sank 8.4% Thursday and the great I Q lesson here is that you can’t stiff the hedgies and not expect some payback. The flip side, though, is that the Merval was up almost 7% the day before, so in a lot of ways it’s like going to Vegas: Some days you win big, other times you lose big.
Asia dropped somewhat overnight. Not that they think the world is ending, but if the US gets the flu, China and Japan will at least get the sniffles. 0.9% and 0.63% respectively ands that’s a rational response when the Worlds Biggest Consumer drops 2%, which we did.
In Europe this morning this morning, the Brits were down a further 1.22%, Germany down 1.71% an d the French down 0.92% when I looked earlier.
Is it ALL the fault of Argentina? Of course not. We live on a multivariate financial/drug planet.
Another factor, not to be missed, is that the Fed this week didn’t talk up the rate increase (likely in 2015) enough. That’s something to consider deeply.
If the Fed signals that it will raise rates, it sets a market expectation that the recovery is healthy and demand is coming along much as would be expected in a recovery. But if the Fed doesn’t at least talk a good line, the market people get all jittery-like and they start responding as though deflation is still here.
As to what an Elliott wave perspective reveals, my friend Robin Landry expects this to hold around/above 1,900 on the S&P, but he figures the real line in the sand is down around 1,740. Once that is taken out, then yes, the world will be ending, the Crash of a Lifetime is likely on, and make room under the bed because I’ll be joining you. But in the meantime…
A check of commodity prices (over here) suggests that they aren’t wrong in thinking that things could hold up another year…maybe…before Long Wave reality slaps us silly: Crude oil is down almost $3-bucks (and 3%) in the past week. And the majority of other commodities are down, too.
But if you look at a three-month chart of the CBOE10-year Treasury trade, you’ll see that the Treasury traders are not at all in a panic, and since the bond market is many times the size of equities, my outlook for a “turnaround Tuesday” next week seems just as reasonable now as it did yesterday.
Bonds rates are not collapsing, the GDP is increasing at 4% (with the asterisk about who’s numbers you believe, of course) and that gets us to this morning’s employment report.
Gee, are we having fun now, or what? (Nose plugs at the ready?)
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.
| | | Changes to the Establishment Survey | | | | Effective with the release of July 2014 data in this news release, the | | establishment survey began implementing new sample units into production on | | a quarterly basis, replacing the practice of implementing new sample units | | annually. There was no change to the establishment survey sample design. | | More information about the quarterly sample implementation is available at | | www.bls.gov/ces/cesqsi.htm . | | | |
Household Survey Data Both the unemployment rate (6.2 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (9.7 million) changed little in July. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons have declined by 1.1 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 5.7 percent and the rate for blacks edged up to 11.4 percent in July, following declines for both groups in the prior month. The rates for adult men (5.7 percent), teenagers (20.2 percent), whites (5.3 percent), and Hispanics (7.8 percent) showed little or no change in July. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.
And so we wander off into the guts of this: Headlines like “ US job growth cools, unemployment rate rises to 6.2 percent” put a chill out, though.
BIGGIE (and bad news for the bears!) the Labor Participation Rate went up a 10th to 62.9 and that’s with an increase of 329,000 in the labor force!
What’s more, the CES Birth-Death Model created only 80,000 jobs and that one…gulp!…verges on believable!
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
…and it was up only a 10th to 12.2%.
More after this…
So Much for the Cease-fire
Throwing Money At Ebola
Why we’re not keeping people exposed out of the country is just a dandy little question.
By the way, the House has given John Boehner authority to sue the president for failing to enforce the laws of the Nation as written. Admittedly,; that seems beyond the reach of a “constitutional scholar…” especially when it comes to the border…
Weathering the Weekend
May turn interesting as Tropical Storm Bertha is coming in.
So now when someone tells me to “get bent” I’ll be confused as to what they’re really suggesting…
Weirdness in Computing
A judge has told Microsoft that is must turn over emails collected on overseas servers (as in Ireland)…which has me hitting the search tools to find out what about emails collected here….
And who’s getting all those emails? Why, the US government, of course…and look for this to ripple up another notch on the growing rift between the Euro Cartel and the Washington Cartel about who’s really going to run the New World Order…but we already knew that would be contentious…just ask the Germans.