Markets: Boffle and Shiznit

For about the eight-millionth time I’m going to remember you what week this is:

June 27, 1929.

The Hoover Rhyme will take office.

The market will scream higher.

Those left behind will stare in disbelief.

Things will seem to be oh-so-good.

And then it will happen: Then last damn fool will toss money into the market and that will be the new All-Time-High after which we begin a descent that who knows where we will land.

We will likely hit that around the middle of March…OK, since you asked Monday March 13 is in the running, or that week.

No, this is not investment advice, any more than talking over the football pool at the office is.

Besides, like football, we do have a wildcard date in the July-August period.

What could possibly go wrong?

OMG, do we have a list.

For one thing, we’re sizing up the report from China Topix about how close the U.S. and China got to war breaking out last summer.

Not getting a lot of attention in the U.S. but a legit worry for one simple reason: The incoming Trump administration needs to press ahead with rapid re-industrialization in order to become once again militarily independent.

Oh, sure, we can’t use Chinese-made parts in U.S. military gear, but where would the civilian economy be?

That and there are so many components (think down at the board level resistors, capacitors, and inductors) that we have simply lost our way on. Our biggest stumble on the way to Being Great could well be something as small as a 1-cent part made ONLY by the masters of miniaturization.

Point is that with good military advisors, we might be able to win a push-button war, but a long, drawn-out affair would bankrupt us inside two years.

And that’s just ONE of our problems.

Lying Government

No, I will not accuse the U.S. government of lying about the “Russian hacking” of the DNC et al, since Julian Assange has been telling Sean Hannity this for a couple of weeks.

But I will point out ruling America requires the consent of the governed…and that’s been getting a little tattered here lately.

Making matters worse? The republicans have voted to essentially gut the House Ethics office which is leading the losers (Pelosi and friends) to claim ethics are the first casualty of the new republican congress.

I come back to my point about trust in government. If you don’t trust it, you won’t be bound by it.

Trade Boss Picked

Robert Lighthizer has been named U.S. Trade Rep.

Global Collapse Driver?

Fears of a ‘massive’ global property price fall amid ‘dangerous’ conditions and market slow-down” reports the UK Telegraph.

Gee, almost-free money and 7-billion people…you think?

Should peak around when the market does…

Readying for Robots?

Several years ago on our www.peoplenomics.com site, we did an interesting piece which focused on “Dr. Ron’s Leisure Class.” It was a rather prescient concept from the head of www.a4m.org that suggested one way to fix Americas problems would be to simply grant people an income for life and let ‘em go spend.

The economics are pretty solid, too.

And now – and this really is startling – Finland is actually rolling out 2,000- citizens as the first batch of their “Leisure Class.”

Subscribers should reference Peoplenomics #323 of December 2, 2007 here. Nice to see the world catching up with Dr. Ron Klatz’s idea.

A quote for nonsubscribers to explain it a bit more:

“Klatz, by his nature, looks at things a little differently than most.  Perhaps it comes from crossing swords with the pharmaceutical industry, which at times seems to have a vested interest in making sure people are taking medicines, rather than ‘getting well’.  

If you’ve followed the controversy over whether human growth hormone (HGH/HRT) contributes to life extension, you may have run across Klatz’s name before.  He makes no secret that there is a ton of good science backing up claims that certain vitamins and supplements, as well as so-called ‘off-label’ use of HGH can enhance and potentially extend the human lifespan.  Where things turn controversial, he suspects, is when HGH, for example, is not purchased from the ‘right’ corporate pharmaceutical outfit.  “The FDA wouldn’t be making so much noise if the stuff didn’t work,” he observed.

But that was just a footnote to our conversation.  The real guts of it had to do with whether we could set up a professional leisure class, dismantle the military industrial complex and live happily (and peacefully) ever after.

“What I envision,” he continues, “is a group of small communities.  Maybe a few thousand homes each.  People would be able to move in, have a high def TV, a thousand channels, access to the internet, and then spend their days doing what they figure would improve them most as a person.   With interactive TV, you could take courses and get degrees from leading universities – Harvard at home in your PJ’s.  So, for example, if you wanted to read, you could order all kinds of books, and study whatever field you want, to your heart’s content.  Music?  You’d simply order a musical instrument (free) and begin to learn to play.  Exercise?  The community would have it all – walking and jogging trails, weight rooms, and saunas – everything you could need.  Cars would be OK, but there would be community rental cars – there’s no need to go anywhere unless you are a driving enthusiast.”

This was getting interesting, but I was getting worried about the cost.

“Look how much money we have spent on the wars,” and figure out how many retirement units could be built for that,” he suggested.

A good starting point.  Let’s assume that each of the retirees (or couples) would want a nice 1,200 square foot home, and that it could be built for $100 per square foot, that would put the cost of the retirement housing at $120,000 per unit.

Studying the concept, I went looking for an estimate of what just the Iraq War has cost so far:  Call it about $444-billion as of this writing, and for certain, it can’t be stopped any time soon.

“Holy smokes, Ron!  That’d be 3,696,990 housing units over the four years of the war!”

So yes, what we need is more governments figuring out how to unplug from the death industries and move ahead with the Life industries…but as you’ll read, we were reporting this 10 years ago.

When who else was?

Markets and Movements

Institute for Supply Management numbers come out around 10 AM, but for the most part today is a play day for the market.

Futures are up 138 points (and likely to break 20,000 on the Dow this month).

Thursday we get a few job numbers (Challenger Job Cuts) and chain store sales. ADP job data tomorrow and then the Official #’s on Friday.

For now, just another pop up while the last of the sheep are overwhelmed with Everything is Coming Up Roses…which is how you get the heard to the slaughterhouse door. Takes months. Herds move slowly.

Caliquakes

Yep, up north of the Imperial Valley, there are still temblors rolling. Check this map from USGS and zoom on the left coast.

Comments

Markets: Boffle and Shiznit — 16 Comments

  1. Take the world’s available resources and divide by the world’s population. That gives the (not even sustainable) level of lifestyle possible on this planet. Any idea like Klatz’s that promotes a level of living that exceeds that is not workable in the long run. I remind you that in Venezuela, an ounce of gold will buy a modest country house.

    This idea is of any kind of a first world future is just a USA pipe dream. Even if the USA military budget was taken to zero, the USA federal budget and balance of trade still comes up a cool $1TRILLION short every year. You in America are enjoying the fruits of that printing press, a situation that China or Russia could destroy in 30 days by simply demanding payment in their domestic currency (not dollars) for all oil and manufactured goods exported.

    As George Carlin said, “its called the American dream because you gotta be asleep to believe it!” Once you wake up, you will be scared sh-tless, because as Jim Sinclair says, “the most endangered species on earth is the USA retiree. Then think about all those snowflakes out there who cannot even emotionally handle their presidential candidate losing. Two generations that consistently end up in the bottom 5 for general life skills and education, that’s your future, America.

    That’s how it looks from Ecuador, seven years out.

  2. Minor point. The House Ethics Office is a private organization with no subpoena power or real investigative authority. They are essentially a bunch of private investigators who report to the House Ethics Committee (that is, elected members of the House of Representatives) who make the final decisions. The reason for getting rid of the Ethics Office is that it is superfluous and a waste of money. If Congress wants to do an ethics investigation it should issue subpoenas and have hearings, not in effect subcontract it out to a private organization.

  3. It is human nature to want more. More of everything. In a world where all our needs are met, we strive for power. Conflict is inevitable.

  4. Re the US/China dustup possibilities. I could be wrong, but it seems I read many years back that we buy quite a bit of out ammunition [bullets] from China, and our military boots made there. I remember thinking, if it were true, how stupid is that????? We should do a survey, informally, of how many necessities are produced there. Is laundry soap? [vague memory possibility].

    • I believe a date check will put my march call 9 months back. on subsc4riber side.

  5. Re: Klatz’ idea. I can see such a community’s population being self-limiting as in pretty short order everyone would be looking like the slugs in the movie “Wall-E”and dying of heart failure. It simply flies in the face of human nature to have everything handed to them and expect them to take advantage of anything resembling or requiring effort. The welfare class in our country ought to be a big enough example to suit this evaluation. Self-motivation is a rare and difficult to maintain quality. As a self-employed rancher believe me, I know. It’s tragic to think that as bad as the effects of the military-industrial complex are on everyone outside the U.S. borders it does hone the physical and intellectual skills of our population, or at least used to prior to the H1B visa population inundation. We simply don’t seem to be able to come up with something as wonderful as the SR-71, built without a computer in sight, without a gun pointed at our heads.

    • A few decades back, the USAF was ‘rumored’ to be flying an air breathing unmanned bird nicknamed ‘Aurora.’ The venerable SR-71 was retired about the same time. Now, the X-37B ‘orbital test vehicle’ (2 are admitted to being flown) is launched periodically for long duration, low earth orbit (LEO) missions. The X-37Bs are likely testing new satellite thrust technologies, as attributed to the vehicle’s small size yet long duration. But my guess is they are also testing new sensor payloads for future ‘small satellite’ deplorable LEO missions. The future of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) is unmanned systems for air breathing, land, sea (surface & sub-surface) and space based purposes. Think of it as Uber for the military. A ton of money and fuel are saved by removing humans from the cockpit. Pilots require life support, requiring a great deal of room for the cockpit and avionics. Unmanned systems, whether for ISR, transport or weapons delivery, save space and fuel. They are the future for commercial and military ops.

      • Honored to have a reply from you Warhammer! No, it’s not that there aren’t wonderful things coming out of the Skunkworks nowadays, what I was getting at was that we don’t seem to be able to accomplish anything with domestic brainpower. I wish I had saved it in my Favorites somewhere but I remember an old video of Michio Kaku going off on a rant about how the U.S. educational system isn’t producing scientists any more or enough to keep the momentum up we once had. If it weren’t for the imported talent much of our scientific efforts would be far behind our competitors in the World.

    • On purpose, the US educational system isn’t producing scientists….well we’ve produced plenty of engineers then we lay them off and either outsource the jobs or insourced cheaper labor. This country doesn’t care about this country. This country has been doing its best to destroy this country. Having said that, I have 3 engineers in my family. Two non-degreed highly intelligent ones. 1 degreed. All 3 top secret clearances. All if them have had to struggle with their country selling them out. It is a shame to have to fight the educational system on top of everything else.