For about the eight-millionth time I’m going to remember you what week this is:
June 27, 1929.
The Hoover Rhyme will take office.
The market will scream higher.
Those left behind will stare in disbelief.
Things will seem to be oh-so-good.
And then it will happen: Then last damn fool will toss money into the market and that will be the new All-Time-High after which we begin a descent that who knows where we will land.
We will likely hit that around the middle of March…OK, since you asked Monday March 13 is in the running, or that week.
No, this is not investment advice, any more than talking over the football pool at the office is.
Besides, like football, we do have a wildcard date in the July-August period.
What could possibly go wrong?
OMG, do we have a list.
For one thing, we’re sizing up the report from China Topix about how close the U.S. and China got to war breaking out last summer.
Not getting a lot of attention in the U.S. but a legit worry for one simple reason: The incoming Trump administration needs to press ahead with rapid re-industrialization in order to become once again militarily independent.
Oh, sure, we can’t use Chinese-made parts in U.S. military gear, but where would the civilian economy be?
That and there are so many components (think down at the board level resistors, capacitors, and inductors) that we have simply lost our way on. Our biggest stumble on the way to Being Great could well be something as small as a 1-cent part made ONLY by the masters of miniaturization.
Point is that with good military advisors, we might be able to win a push-button war, but a long, drawn-out affair would bankrupt us inside two years.
And that’s just ONE of our problems.
No, I will not accuse the U.S. government of lying about the “Russian hacking” of the DNC et al, since Julian Assange has been telling Sean Hannity this for a couple of weeks.
But I will point out ruling America requires the consent of the governed…and that’s been getting a little tattered here lately.
Making matters worse? The republicans have voted to essentially gut the House Ethics office which is leading the losers (Pelosi and friends) to claim ethics are the first casualty of the new republican congress.
I come back to my point about trust in government. If you don’t trust it, you won’t be bound by it.
Trade Boss Picked
Global Collapse Driver?
“Fears of a ‘massive’ global property price fall amid ‘dangerous’ conditions and market slow-down” reports the UK Telegraph.
Gee, almost-free money and 7-billion people…you think?
Should peak around when the market does…
Readying for Robots?
Several years ago on our www.peoplenomics.com site, we did an interesting piece which focused on “Dr. Ron’s Leisure Class.” It was a rather prescient concept from the head of www.a4m.org that suggested one way to fix Americas problems would be to simply grant people an income for life and let ‘em go spend.
The economics are pretty solid, too.
And now – and this really is startling – Finland is actually rolling out 2,000- citizens as the first batch of their “Leisure Class.”
Subscribers should reference Peoplenomics #323 of December 2, 2007 here. Nice to see the world catching up with Dr. Ron Klatz’s idea.
A quote for nonsubscribers to explain it a bit more:
“Klatz, by his nature, looks at things a little differently than most. Perhaps it comes from crossing swords with the pharmaceutical industry, which at times seems to have a vested interest in making sure people are taking medicines, rather than ‘getting well’.
If you’ve followed the controversy over whether human growth hormone (HGH/HRT) contributes to life extension, you may have run across Klatz’s name before. He makes no secret that there is a ton of good science backing up claims that certain vitamins and supplements, as well as so-called ‘off-label’ use of HGH can enhance and potentially extend the human lifespan. Where things turn controversial, he suspects, is when HGH, for example, is not purchased from the ‘right’ corporate pharmaceutical outfit. “The FDA wouldn’t be making so much noise if the stuff didn’t work,” he observed.
But that was just a footnote to our conversation. The real guts of it had to do with whether we could set up a professional leisure class, dismantle the military industrial complex and live happily (and peacefully) ever after.
“What I envision,” he continues, “is a group of small communities. Maybe a few thousand homes each. People would be able to move in, have a high def TV, a thousand channels, access to the internet, and then spend their days doing what they figure would improve them most as a person. With interactive TV, you could take courses and get degrees from leading universities – Harvard at home in your PJ’s. So, for example, if you wanted to read, you could order all kinds of books, and study whatever field you want, to your heart’s content. Music? You’d simply order a musical instrument (free) and begin to learn to play. Exercise? The community would have it all – walking and jogging trails, weight rooms, and saunas – everything you could need. Cars would be OK, but there would be community rental cars – there’s no need to go anywhere unless you are a driving enthusiast.”
This was getting interesting, but I was getting worried about the cost.
“Look how much money we have spent on the wars,” and figure out how many retirement units could be built for that,” he suggested.
A good starting point. Let’s assume that each of the retirees (or couples) would want a nice 1,200 square foot home, and that it could be built for $100 per square foot, that would put the cost of the retirement housing at $120,000 per unit.
Studying the concept, I went looking for an estimate of what just the Iraq War has cost so far: Call it about $444-billion as of this writing, and for certain, it can’t be stopped any time soon.
“Holy smokes, Ron! That’d be 3,696,990 housing units over the four years of the war!”
So yes, what we need is more governments figuring out how to unplug from the death industries and move ahead with the Life industries…but as you’ll read, we were reporting this 10 years ago.
When who else was?
Markets and Movements
Institute for Supply Management numbers come out around 10 AM, but for the most part today is a play day for the market.
Futures are up 138 points (and likely to break 20,000 on the Dow this month).
Thursday we get a few job numbers (Challenger Job Cuts) and chain store sales. ADP job data tomorrow and then the Official #’s on Friday.
For now, just another pop up while the last of the sheep are overwhelmed with Everything is Coming Up Roses…which is how you get the heard to the slaughterhouse door. Takes months. Herds move slowly.
Yep, up north of the Imperial Valley, there are still temblors rolling. Check this map from USGS and zoom on the left coast.