Market: Up at the Open, But then What?

It’s like chasing after unicorns, trying to get a Leprechaun to part with a pot of gold, or trying to find an honest politician:  Finding the Master Key to Stock Market Profits is not a simple pursuit.

That said, as we continue the computational exercises, we have come upon a promising new tool which we will be testing in coming weeks.

I won’t bore you with the math, but since I’ve been looking at all kinds of things in a “new light” due to the research for the next books, this new approach is certainly promising.  Since the market lost 87-points yesterday, the after-the-close projection for today would be for the Dow to open up 52, but then waffle later today.

(Continues below)

 

If you want some interesting speculation, there’s one case that we rally to complete a third wave higher today and tomorrow, then begin declining in earnest Monday or Tuesday.  OR, we could close today around the levels of yesterday’s close, and that would set up for a major decline Friday or Monday which would carry well into next week.

Regardless, the new “system” I have been working on is NOT something that will be revealed publicly any time soon.  The reason is simple:  The value of a trading system is inversely proportional to the number of people using it.

Elliott Waves are a fine example.  To be sure, the original Ralph N. Elliott book was a bit obscure, but when popularized by Frost and Prechter, the ability for the small trader to use Elliott waves effectively declined, somewhat.  Oh, it still works, but the more people using something…

There’s an assortment of yet-to-be-popularized techniques waiting to be discovered, however, and one of them is this odd/distant variant of what’s called Displaced Moving Averages – or DMA’s.

Using a far-flung mathematical offshoot of these, I have found a pretty good trading algo.  If it works reliably (meaning I book 50% gains in my personal portfolio in a short time) then I might mention a few details on the subscriber side.

But let me get to the point of this morning’s discussion – and this really is the “pearl” I think:

Just like I was talking about the public’s “disappearing interest” in manners in today’s “Coping” section, so too there has been a major decline in the number of people out looking for seriously workable ways to get rich.

No, I don’t know why that is.  Elites dumbing us down, the demonization of wealth, invention, and simply getting rich.  Don’t know.

I mean think about it:  Which is a better proposition here:

A) Sit on your lard-butt and watch Game of Thrones, or…

B) Spend a couple of hours a day with little more that college math skills and a spreadsheet working on ways to “get ahead of the market” and thereby get rich.

To me, it’s not even a choice.  Watching television and being further programmed into “virtual worlds” is not something I particularly need to worry about.

At some point, we’re all going to die, and when we do, we will likely not only take with us some memories or “lessons” out of this life, but more importantly (to me) we likely will take our philosophy of inquiry with us.

So, if there is and Afterlife, and you have a life-long habit of asking hard questions, thinking of things in new ways, and so on, stands to reason (for this simpleton, anyway) that you’ll be in a vastly better position on the far-side of Life to stand up to the dark energy charlatans that religion folks call demons and such.

But that’s just me – the money grubber unrepentant capitalist, questioner, denier, and skeptic.

One of my children asked me yesterday “Did you see episode seven? OMG!!!.

Hell no, I muttered to myself.

Then dad asked “Did you see me unload the long side of my hedge at the market spike before things tanked Wednesday?

That, dear reader, is the intergenerational gap in a nutshell.

We have a world of X’ers and Millen’s that are living in what Carl Sagan wrote of in The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark:

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time – when the United States is a service and information economy, when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries, when an awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues, or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.”

Sagan was wrong on horoscopes…it’s apps…but same ‘dif.

So I told the daughter “Nope, didn’t see episode 7…”  And no, I don’t care about dying dragons, either. Expiring options?  Now you have my attention!

Shortly thereafter the younger generation, bored with the older “had to go” [click].  Good-bye has disappeared with manners and respect for elders.

[Thanks to reader Paul for reminding me what Sagan wrote in 1996…]

Quincy Jones’ late brother explained to me in 1967 when I went to work for the radio station where he was chief engineer that “Life is only about 18,000 days long and every morning when your feet hit the floor, you’re burning another one.”

Not a day has gone by – in 50 years – that have haven’t remembered that advice; it was early enough in life to really make a difference.  Ever since, I’ve lived life as well – and fast – as I could.

Still, not satisfied with my personal performance, I get up every day between 3 and 5 AM to “hit it and get it” for another day.

My advice to anyone is “Live your life like the devil’s on your heels.”

When you understand the possibility that could literally be true, and the final buzzer can sound any time, you just might find your interest in episode 8 is a false, hollow, worthless waste of time with no payoff either at the bank; in how you think; or in what you take with you into the afterlife.

I don’t understand people that load illusions into their minds.  I see it, of course, even in my own offspring, but understand it?  No.

“18,000 days.  And you burn one every morning when your feet hit the floor.”

Amen, thank you, and R.I.P. Lloyd Jones.

Wages to Rise?

Here We Go Again: 3 Percent Base Salary Increases Forecasted to Continue in 2018, According to Korn Ferry.

Weather Spotting

Hurricane could hit Texas for 1st time since 2008.

By the way, the local canoe races on the Neches River this weekend here in East Texas have been canceled.

Too much water.

Don’t tell the Gorites of the Climatists.

Implosion of the News Channels

Here is our reliable marker of how much REAL news there is today:  Stories like this one:

Celeb nudes leaked: How?

The real news will be up in Jackson Hole where the annual movers-and-shakers conference is on tomorrow and Saturday.

No, we didn’t get an invite, either.

Immigration Economics

We have consistently explained that immigration, open borders, and all that, is really and economic balancing act.  Shut down the border tight and wages may go up, immigration down, but Hispanic demand (not to mention payments into Social Security by a growing young population) is not minor economic footnotes.

So here’s more on the balancing act:  U.S. retailers hit as immigration worries weigh on Hispanic spending.

With that, futures are right on the money to open “at the line” in our model, but it’s where things go from there that will matter.

Be well – and 17,999 days left for you tomorrow…

Comments

Market: Up at the Open, But then What? — 16 Comments

  1. Displaced moving averages. Looks like a new, more expensive Peoplenomics is in development?

    • Nope, no plans to change pricing on Peoplenomics.
      Some of our trading tools don’t get disclosed to anyone but the heirs…and only then if they pass an IQ test, lol

  2. 18,000 days? Lmfao! A life ‘sentence’ forsure.

    After 10 NDE’s (near death experiances) death and me have an understanding. I know, I know, seems a little excessive. Lol its my path and i push it to the maximum! That way once it’s done and over, nothing is left undone. Well, death and me have an understanding. Not many wrestle with death once and walk away with their life. :)

    Last year was number 10. I ended up flat lining at the hospital in the E.R. for 5 min after I stopped breathing for 8 min. Working over 80 hours a week with pneumonia for 4 months. Sometimes I don’t know when I’m sick. Too focused on other things.

    Ahhh the after life, total connectedness telepathic collective experiance.

    Last time the guy on the other side I always talk too got upset and said you are not scheduled to be here for quite a while! What is it you want now?!!! Then we both laughed.

    The whole deal is a life time here is but a moment there.

    I like making money too George. I know what it’s like to have bunches and what it’s like to be pour as a church mouse. I prefer to have bunches, plus my life is not my own. I have children.

    I watched the game of thrones. But i also worked 36 hours straight, slept for 5 hours, moved a friend on Sunday and then sat In front of the Tv for an hour or 2. Nothi g wrong with taking a lol break every now and then.

    One things forsure, I never have a problem getting to sleep. Once my head hits the pillow, I’m out.

    Everyone is so damn serious in the comment section. Jon posts like his life depends upon validation of his beliefs. 9nce you get yo the other side of life. Trust me on this. It won’t matter who was president or who you voted for. Or if you drove an SUV or a hybrid.

    Only thing that matters there is what did you do with you while you were busy being you.

    Life itself, can be a form addiction.

  3. Listening to “Savage” for an hour I also watched the -DJI- on a minute chart with 200 SMA and 250 EMA. Yes, there is pgm trading, particularly during the last hour of the game. I wonder, would it be more profitable to just trade the overnight expectations, if technical conditions are favorable while ignoring long-tine positions?
    Also, I provide for a Siberian female cat (not neutered!) who is in love with my grown-up son. My question to cat lovers: Can cats read human mind? I’m inclined to think so, by my experience.

  4. George,
    Concerning your comment on shutting down the borders tight.
    I don’t know why the discussions on “shutting the border” or “building the wall” fail to acknowledge that the ‘WALL’ and ‘BORDER’ it designates, will still have authorized entry points in it.
    The U.S. is not going to be isolationist. What we must have is for all seeking to enter the U.S. to only use the authorized entry points, instead of ‘SNEAKING IN’ through currently unsecured border areas.
    We will still have immigration and commerce and visits with the neighbors.
    After all, what would one’s first thought be to find an unknown person sneaking through their bedroom window rather than knocking at the door?

  5. We lived through good times, our parents lived through their own good times. I had a picture of my father at university with a class picture where everyone was wearing suits back in the day (1920s) and were looking forward to the future (before the crash/depression). Today’s university pictures look nothing like that of the past – nor are pushing students anywhere near as hard as they used to – all for a wonderful $50,000 a year for young-adult camp.

    Good luck, kids, but there were better times before today. And people got their kicks “solving problems” and not “hanging out”.

  6. 18,000 days? Guess I’m in extra innings. Just waiting for Universe to hit that walk-off homer. Still, I’m counting on a strong, deep bullpen.

  7. 18,000 days? Even counting from 18yo?
    Guess I plan on living far longer than you do.

  8. I am inclined to think “Dad” made a wise choice unloading the long side but kids don’t listen anymore!!!

  9. 18,000 divided by 365 = 49.3 yrs give or take a little….I hope to live longer than 50….(66 now)… so 72 yrs would be 26280 days….so maybe you have more than you thought….

  10. It occurred to me year (decades?) ago that ‘nude photos’ being released – wouldn’t be as great a problem – if one never had ‘nude photos’ taken.

    (There always might be ‘a voyeur problem’ but that is another kettle of fish.)