Is the Market Top Already In?

We need to start off with a lot of caveats and asterisks before we go further:  A) This is not financial advice.  B) The chart that follows is based on the proprietary trading model I developed for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers and my own use. C) The chart is only considered “complete” after the close on Friday’s when all the world’s markets freeze for the weekend.  So today’s trading will mean a lot.

And that’s just the top of the list.  More important is how and why this trading model may be indicating a top.  As you know, I measured the time from the Hoover Inauguration in 1929 (March 4) to the Sept. 3, 1929 market high and counted trading days.  This was then measured against Donald Trump taking the Oath on January 20 of this year.  When you include the Saturday trading days in 1929, you come up with a projected high date in the August 21-24 timeframe.  My preferred outlook would be fresh, new highs before collapse into the fall.  Or going higher and no collapse until 2018.

However, as you can see in the chart which will follow, there is a case to be made that we have completed 5 waves up and if we crash down through the bottom of the trend line, it will be curtains for investing as we know it because this COULD be the very first tiny break down.

(Continue below)

 

Let me show you what I mean:

Granted, the chart is not terribly useful without the timebase and such but that’s how subscribers have been watching this unfold.

Tomorrow, I have plans to do an article on “How to analyze a stock in 3-minutes (or less)” using the techniques I’ve developed.

China Tips Its Hand

The Chinese have indicated that they will not become involved in Korea UNLESS the U.S. Strikes first.  However, the testosterone is rolling in the military ranks and headlines like “Locked and Loaded” are being bandied about.

Our military affairs contributor (warhammer) offers this perspective.

The position of great dragon wrt N.Korean tensions is semi-officially fairly clear now. 

Essentially, the only way China will engage in a shooting war over N. Korea is if their communist ward is attacked first. 

The wild card here is N. Korea deliberately trolling the South into ‘appearing’ to fire the first shot, either out at sea, in the air or on land across the DMZ.  Then, all bets are off.  So trigger fingers in the South are the real concern now.  Kim Jong-Un now has everything to lose by initiating a shooting war, but potentially much to gain if he can agitate the South into misguided, undisciplined actions..

It is odd to me that China delivered what is essentially a diplomatic demarche to the U.S. and S. Korea via their state run news site.  But then Trump uses Twitter, so times are certainly changing in this regard.

Getting all parties around a peace talk table would be a good thing right about now!”

Still, as indicated in our daily trading approach, it would be best (from a personal profiteering standpoint) if we could just let the hysteria run a few more hours, trade the market down to my trend line so I can go long, anticipating a cool-down of the hype and hyperbole by the talking heads this weekend.

The problem faced by Mr. Tweet and General Mattis (that no one else is mentioning, but we will because it is very useful to know):

In North Korea, everyone is involved in some way in the production of food.  The NK’s have been backed into a box and further along the road to mass starvation by western sanctions.  This means the NK’s will be “tied up” and not really able to mount an effective invasion of the South until the first freezes of winter show up.

That prospect – the calendar angle – has everything to do with how and when the US plays hardball.  Look at it this way:

  • If the US goes early and first, we risk China showdown, but mad Dog ain’t no sissy and Trump, well, you know he’s got a military “thing” – the plus is the NK’s are too busy gathering in calories.
  • If we wait, then maybe the NK’s will go first, but that means waiting until cold weather and that will then give their mechanized units a shot at the South.  But also, China says if they do go first, the Chinese won’t back them.

This leaves waiting as a somewhat risky, but zero blow-back option, but by the time traders figure this out, Ure will likely be on the long side already and waiting for a further move up based on money supply and “leakage” into the markets from all that dough on the sidelines.

In other words, see news coming, and print money for your own account, accordingly.  It may seem a bit “amoral” and all, but your money doesn’t know where it came from.

Except we do, so…

Speaking of Money Printing

We won’t screw up our normally lightning fast page load speeds with another graphic here, but a word to the wise:  The market top does seem to be at hand when you look at home Janet and the Fed are rolling on the mad money streak they have been on.

We do note from data (here) that to the first of July on a 90-day basis, the Fed was pumping M1 at an 11.8% annualized rate.  However, in the most recent sliding window (for the 13-weeks ending July 31) the rate of increase in M1 annualized was just about steady at 11.7% annualized.

So if you chooses to look at the market levels as little more than a pressure relief valve that gives excess Fed money a place to land, then this view would suggest the Fed was happy with levels last seen around the end of July.  That would also support our “one more move up” working hypothesis.

Consumer Prices

All this talk about money supplies comes as we are drilling down into the Consumer Price report just out.  Hot off the press release from Labor:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.7 percent.

The indexes for shelter, medical care, and food all rose in July, leading to the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index declined slightly in July, with its major component indexes mixed. The index for natural gas declined, while the electricity index rose and the gasoline index was unchanged. The food index increased 0.2 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both rising.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent, the fourth month in a row it increased by that amount. The indexes for shelter, medical care, recreation, apparel, motor vehicle insurance, and airline fares all rose in July. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for new vehicles, communications, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations.

The all items index rose 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, a slightly larger increase than for the 12 months ending June. The index for all items less food and energy also rose 1.7 percent for the 12 month period, the same increase as for the 12 months ending May and June. The energy index rose 3.4 percent over the last year, while the food index increased 1.1 percent.

Dow futures were about flat after the news…

It’s axiomatic in our work that Fed money supply increase less the implied cost of inflation (this morning’s headline number above on CPI) leaves up with a general market outlook.

One other thing to be aware of:  Bitcoins effectively hit our $3,500 number which we have been telling you would be here eventually.

If you are a new reader of UrbanSurvival, please go back and read how we were predicting BTC’s “great hesitation” in mid June here and you’ll be impressed (I hope!) how deadly-right we were in our forecast.  The Great Hesitation is over, and we are looking at the $4,000 area as possible if we get the one last blow-off highs in the markets later this month as we’ve been talking about.

Again, that damned asterisk:  Assuming the top is not already in, and that’s a judgement call we don’t make for others.

Corrections and Amplifications

In our Coping section Thursday, we went into some detail about the “Death of America” scenario where a national gird hard-down began to take down nuclear power stations.

We received some expert feedback that corrects a small point, but still leaves the overall scenarios outlined intact:

To set the stage, I am an engineer at a boiling water nuclear plant and your concerns are valid, however a couple of points are not correct.

Whether it is a controlled shutdown or an emergency scram, we can get to “cold shutdown” in around three days.  It only takes that long because we are trying not to “shock” the reactor vessel with a dramatic temperature change.  But “cold” is about 100 F.  If we stop circulating water to the fuel, things heat right back up.  This is due to the radioactivity within each fuel rod.  It does not stop, it can’t.  Not in a time frame any of us care about.  Without cooling, “time to boil” is not long.  Hours, not days.

The only way out of this is to do a full core offload which merely puts the fuel into the spent fuel pool.  It also takes power to run cranes & other equipment and is usually done by specialists who work refueling operations.  It takes a couple of years in the pool before fuel can be placed into Dry Cask storage. search on “holtec” if you’re interested.

The pool itself can actually last longer than the reactor vessel because of the much larger supply of water in the pool.  The entire pool has to go from 100 F to 212 F and then boil off approximately 25 feet of water before fuel rods start to be uncovered. 

So if you have a “station blackout”, you run the emergency diesel generators, get more fuel and get help.  Obviously in a regional situation that’s going to be sporty indeed.

But there’s a far worse situation.  

Back in the early 80s Scientific American published an article comparing the fallout from a 1 megaton ground burst versus targeting a nuclear power plant with the same weapon. Horrendously worse is an inadequate description.

Feel free to post, just strip my info,

That’s about as “dead to nuts on” as you’ll find.  And with an event-sequence like the one we outlined in our cautionary report Thursday, it appears we have not overstated, and may indeed have somewhat understated the risk.

OK, back to see the market sort out the “bottom and bounce” or “Dang, Ure was close on his top call but it came early” trading session.

FUBS

Yes, kiddies, time for that ever-popular summary of Friday Useless Bull Shit, written by Snidely Slapdash…

 

‘Munsters’ returning?  “No, that’s Congress, you idiot!”

Swift: He grabbed my bare butt.  “Stimulus response reaction?”

UK could face Islamist threat for decades, former MI5 chief warns. “And who left their borders open?”

Melbourne cafe charges men more for coffee.  “Where, of where, are the defenders of equality?”

This, and a million stories like these, answer that profound question “Why haven’t we had extraterrestrial contact yet?”

Even a three-fingered reptile knows enough not to step into the middle of a cat fight.  Which may be why ancient peoples got visitors and we don’t, you think?

Comments

Is the Market Top Already In? — 19 Comments

  1. George,

    Oddly coincidental, a few weeks ago I ran across a speech given by JFK where he presented the following:

    ‘…in the Chinese written language, the word for “crisis” is composed of two characters. One character means “DANGER” and the other character means “OPPORTUNITY.”

    Needless to say, when I read China’s active/passive proclamation, those wise words from the days of Camelot came flashing right back to me!

  2. My NK & China indicator is the stock YUMC – Yum China – Taco Bell & KFC. The stock has been doing very well which indicates a positive Far East outlook. If YUMC opened in NK it would accomplish 2 objectives. Food for the NK people & a restaurant for NK & the USA to meet on neutral ground.

  3. Here is my take on North Korea and the Golfer in Chiefs “tough talk”. Trump can talk tough, because North Korea doesn’t have the capability to shoot off a bottle rocket, let alone a nuke.

    As I stated yesterday, Trump needs a victory. His intel shows that NK is all bluster. Yes, they have medium and long range missles. But according to the dozens of military experts, Generals, Majors, etc that have been on the news as of late, they have no guidance systems. And it is doubtful that they have the capability to adequately attach any type of weapon of mass destruction to the Missles.

    This scenario is like a 70 lb weakling of a kid armed with spitballs vs. the high school offensive lineman armed with military grade weapons. The lineman can pontificate all day long that he will crush the “spitball kid” , but it makes him look foolish. Or, he can ignore, or sit down with the kid and ask him why the hell he likes to shoot spitballs at him behind his back. Could be that he just wants to be part of the pack.

    In the end, Trump wants to appear tough, because he needs to prove to his naysayers that he won’t back down. The problem is, of course we can crush NK. Duh!!!!. The are an insignificant player. They have an economy smaller than Vermont, which ranks dead last in the U.S. They would not be even ranked as a 3rd world country. They are a 5th world country and we are screwing with them? This is worse than invading the Faulklands.

    This whole NK thing is a false flag, a Wag the Dog. Pathetic.

    • “the Golfer in Chiefs”

      Don’t be so critical of golfers.. why you might ask..
      Years ago during my egg timer years..(yes I lived and breathed by an egg timer. a hundred plus hours a week a day of vacation was an eight or ten hour day…)
      I went to the doctor just felt exhausted.. (LOL I KNOW RIGHT) after the exam the doctor lectured me about my work schedule and how it would catch me one day I needed to slow down. then he wrote me a prescription.. he told me your going to think I am nuts writing this but trust me it is the prescription for you and your work schedule.
      PLAY GOLF ONCE A WEEK OR MORE AS NEEDED..
      I said what.. golf.. he said yes you live in a high stress work world and the only way to wind down is to either play golf that is one reason why you see a lot of who playing golf.. people in a high stress management position. so go fishing, ride horses, someplace where you can unwind and relax and golf you can’t play golf well unless you relax and unwind away from the stress of your work. ( it usually took me six holes before I had unwound enough to play)
      Now.. the leader of our country or any country live and breath in a world of high stress and anxiety.. they have their fingers on the button.. you have some yip yapper in your face double daring you to go ahead make my day sort of thing.. well I would rather he take time off and play golf.. tip a couple of cold ones for me skipper.. and yes you can play through if you would like..
      So don’t judge to harshly on any president that wants to play golf. go fishing on the presidential yacht, head home to his ranch and ride a horse or two.. give them a break and let them get their mind set in an insane world bent on destroying itself over a few pieces of paper.

    • “This scenario is like a 70 lb weakling of a kid armed with spitballs vs. the high school offensive lineman armed with military grade weapons. ”

      again your not thinking clear Jon.. A Big dog looks ferocious.. has a deep bark.. and can defeat a little dog.. but the big dog is slower to respond.. it knows it is bigger so it barks are deeper.. but that little dog.. he is scared.. he is quicker and faster and will bite and it will hurt.. you can put a great dane or a doberman in a court yard and have a chiwawa in the same court yard and the big dogs will back down till they finally get moving.
      The leader of NK on the other hand is that chiwawa.. the other big dogs are watching to see how we handle this.. remember Vietnam a small country.. we got entangled in that mess. (over what OIL again.. https://www.quora.com/Was-oil-the-reason-for-the-Vietnam-War ) and we lost..
      and how many people did we loose..
      today we are letting countries come into our country where they have openly said they are sending in fighters.. for some stupid reason we think .. oh they have to be lying of course we are smarter then they are.. LOL.. ( the same idiots that think that the guy with the polyester shirt and gold front tooth is telling them the truth.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FnO3igOkOk ) Today even the little guys have weapons that can and probably will start a chain reaction that would make the earth totally unlivable.. global warming.. think about it.. we all need to use that thing on our shoulders for something more than a hat rack..
      “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones! ~ Albert Einstein”

  4. George,

    Well, you Conservatives sure know how to govern. Ha. Locked and loaded? Fire and fury? Brinksmanship to a nuclear power? Run by an unstable 30 year old?

    Remember, unless you’re trying to raise your numbers at home, it’s irrelevant what WE hear. What’s relevant is what KIM hears.

    Maybe his reply gives us a glimpse into what he’s hearing. Something about nuking US territory?

    Man, those must be some seriously grand tax cuts. Mike

    • “Well, you Conservatives sure know how to govern. Ha. Locked and loaded?”

      You know mike.. I have this chair.. I like to read and read more than the average.. I can sit in that chair and watch the news..or read the news.. scan the local papers or stations.. I see it.. and all the while in that chair.. I know where they are making their crucial mistakes.. I can see the chess pieces all in place.. the same thing with the super bowl.. my god.. why did you make that play.. if you did this one you could have won the game..
      the big difference..
      I am in the chair.. they are in the game..
      I can read the national budget and say look at this.. who in their right mind would even imagine doing that.. or read a bill before them.. ( I personally do think they are idiots in the first degree.. since they refuse to read what is sitting in front of them. Its kind of like signing a check without seeing what the amount is.. or signing a contract without reading it…. and taking gifts believing that the guys giving the gifts are telling them the truth.. they are just good salesmen)
      The president.. the Congress..(god I can’t believe I am going to take their side of this issue especially since I have no faith in any of them and think they should all be voted out maybe put some firemen in place of the good ole boy club…)
      The thing is.. the information we see isn’t always what they see.. the picture you see of every administration as they leave walking down the grand hall way patting the incoming or shaking the in coming administrations hand.. that is the old tag your it picture.. because until they sit behind that desk. they only see what we can see.. just like me in my chair yelling for some coach to make a different play. I am not in the game. I am the couch potato seeing the game from a different perspective..
      It doesn’t matter which side is running the show.. there are so many variables.. and then there are the puppet masters pulling the strings. you might think they could get away from them but that is easier said than done..

  5. If we get hit with a nuke, do you think those workers are going to be there to remove fuel rods. No , they will be with their families taking care of business. The county knows we (the maintenance workers won’t be there for water and wastewater.) so, your basements your hiding in will fill up with poop water sorry. Fact of life. They will have to drag us out of our houses.good luck with that when they are staring down the barrel of a 308.

    • Their thermal imaging will peg you inside of your house as a hostile and their armor piercing or smart rounds will penetrate the wall of you house and end your life without you even know that you were a target.

      Fly under the radar. Don’t pick fights that you cannot win.

      • and at the same time they can do to us what they do to any other country they can just wipe us out with napalm ,gas or bombs,or just neutralizes us with sound waves that kill, or just wait for us to kill ourselves after some thought-provoking bacteria has been sprayed over top with the chemtrails and there is possibly a hundred different methods that they can use that we aren’t even thinking of but they have used in the future on other planets and now are ready to use it on you us we the people of the United States of America

  6. “The Chinese have indicated that they will not become involved in Korea UNLESS the U.S. Strikes first.”

    https://www.nknews.org/2014/09/north-korea-slam-u-s-over-military-action-against-isis/

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/29/isis-finds-success-infiltrating-terrorists-into-re/

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/03/russia-israel-iran-braced-endgame-syria-170316080152634.html

    http://www.latinamericanpost.com/index.php/global-issues/15740-putin-don-t-mess-with-us

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/north-korea-warns-super-mighty-preemptive-strike-will-reduce/

    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-secret-weapon-invade-the-baltics-crush-nato-soldiers-19083

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/saudi-arabia-gulf-states-fund-islamic-extremism-germany-salafism-wahhabism-qatar-kuwait-islamists-a7473551.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/19/opinion/saudi-arabia-qatar-isis-terrorism.html

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/29/government-oks-arab-owned-company-operate-us-port/

    https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/05/04/russia-winning-arab-hearts-and-minds/

    http://themillenniumreport.com/2017/06/100-years-of-the-new-world-order-and-its-most-conspicuous-leaders/

    http://www.harvardilj.org/wp-content/uploads/HLI207_crop.pdf

    https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1600/RR1628/RAND_RR1628.pdf

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-04/xi-putin-agree-joint-approach-north-korea-tensions/8678840

    http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/u-s-missiles-infected-with-chinese-fakes/

    http://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/entry/americas-military-is-supplied-by-china

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-idUSBRE88F0GM20120916

    http://www.anonews.co/china-ww3/

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/721008/Russia-America-nuclear-war-Putin-Obama-bunker-fallout-shelter-Syria-Bashar-al-Assad

    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-militarys-worst-nightmare-war-russia-china-the-same-time-17490

    http://freebeacon.com/national-security/intelligence-report-warns-growing-missile-threats/

    http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/alert/we-have-to-stop-whats-coming/

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/7632543/A-cruise-missile-in-a-shipping-box-on-sale-to-rogue-bidders.html

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/06/05/russia-boosts-trade-north-korea-china-cuts/102389824/

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/11/syria-strike-n-korea-could-push-wall-street-into-bear-market.html

    there is more.. kind of looks like chess pieces on the board.. NOW BLINK

    • there are a bunch of satellites that are going around the Earth and they have 24 hour surveillance and there’s people on shifts that are watching from the sky and that can watch you pick a booger from your nose and at the same time 24 hours a day all within that given area can be zoomed in and replayed as they watch you make a left or right hand turn on a street or watch you when you come out of your house or what you while you’re in your house they also have the ability to watch as each major city is being destroyed with nukes from a foreign country but what they don’t have is the ability to keep their satellites from being destroyed from Russia and China’s new technology that we do not have Kama. That new technology is only here to override our technology that we got from the aliens and we didn’t use it for peace instead we used it for war so the new technology should be used for peace to overtake us making War and if they do not use that technology for that eventually they’ll be taken over to buy another step up technology

      • Well Bryce, I suspect your call that all wars are instigated by alien influence is true.

        So here’s a message to those aliens: Why don’t you all grow up and quit your immature squabbling and leave us humans alone?

        Take your differences and settle them elsewhere, not on Earth.

        All that technology wasted on aliens that are incapable of forgiveness.

  7. Remember the G-20 meeting in Germany? Was NK an issue then? So, most of us depend on the decisions of <5 people?

  8. So, when are we going to start calling Kim Jung Un “5 o’clock Charlie” (Those of you who watched MASH would understand).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_O%27Clock_Charlie

    China is like that parent at WallyMart who lets their child (N.Korea) scream, yell, and run wild in the store and won’t do anything about it. Trump is only that guy saying what most of us would like to say to the parent and child. Chin needs to put a leash on their spoiled brat.

    • So, true, we watched Billy Boy fund him, we watched Bushy Boy bloviate about him and then turn our countries treasures of men/women and money onto the middle east (not even close to NK) and then we watch obummer patronize NK and continue bombing the ME and now we have some serious smack down of the verbal kind coming from Trump. I’d say, when it’s time to blow the smoke stack, Trump won’t make that decision, the handlers, aka the Elites aka Neo Cons, in the New World Order kind who fund and run most governments of the world, will do that. Right now, NK has been a big ole boogey man sitting off on the sidelines, hyperventilating and developing away while we are hell bent on taking out IRAN, ‘bomb, bomb Iran,’ per RINO McCain! So, yeah, we know all about these dickens of years of the boogey man being used to scare the sheetle out of the sheeple. That’s why we prep and discuss it heartily on this site, I’m not afraid of China or Russia (they will collapse the dollar in time with permission), the USA hasn’t yet accounted for the enemy within, that’s the venemous snake that could attack us at any time. If NK gets through, you know it was all set up many years ago, WHEN they could have stopped and taken out the regime, but didn’t. Who said, ‘never let a good crises go to waste?’ Yeah, lesson learned.

  9. So the reality is that Yellen in her communications with the deep state has told them there is no more fairy dust available and the Fed needs a cover story to get the market way down to an acceptable level because they have so exhausted printing money as to make the entire Nation fully aware of their shenanigans – solution “War” see it wasn’t our doing we were in recovery and then Trump screwed everything up…. Yep, I think that about sums it up.