I’ve managed to hold my tongue (mostly) since my last big discussion of this mania in September of last year when I penned “On Circularity, Bitcoins, and “Demand Crumple.”
The reason for scrutiny now is so you can play along in the Home Version of Idiotic Manias.
Not that Bitcoins are alone: We have also been watching Gold, the Iraqi Dinars mania, and any number of others.
Such manias have pretty good “under stories”. In other words, people want to believe something fantastic even if it is demonstrably untrue.
Our outlook for gold (spectacularly right so far) may turn around in the future, as detailed in our Peoplenomics.com report Wednesday. But the outlook for Dinars and Bitcoins is far more cloudy.
Any REAL currency needs to be malleable, divisible, transportable and lots of other requirements for widespread adoption. I must be the only person around who either sees the risk of EMP, or who appreciates that a computer to “mine bitcoins” is now being promoted for November shipping.
The idea is that here shortly, you’ll be able to get a Raspberry Pi based computer that will go off onto the internet to “mine” Bitcoins.
Well, maybe not quite. You see, the real expected returns will likely be only a fraction of a Satoshi and only now and then.
Once you crank in the power to run this “money machine” there is also the cost of bandwidth, and lots of other problems.
Still, there will be a few True Believers out there who will plunk down whatever it costs to buy this latest “golden goose” and pursue the dream of unlimited wealth being automatically created.
And it might work…except that Bitcoins this morning are still stuck at $231 and change, and as soon as people figure out that more miners will mean more Bitcoins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an even further decline.
In most versions of the story, we see references to how the Bitcoin ecosystem could be used as a micropayments structure that could do away with online advertising.
Let me see if I follow: I get one of this mining machines, use it to mine micro slices of BTCs and I put them into my PC with a browser add-on (never mind that it doesn’t exist yet) that will give websites I visit my micro-slices of BTCs in return for not subjecting me to advertising content?
Holy crap! Sounds great. Except for one or two major problems: Like the numbers don’t work and websites with real advertising (including this one) are not supportable on the few micro-slices that such a system would involve.
Still, like the Iraqi Dinar becoming the biggest currency in the world, there is a certain visceral Free Lunch aspect of all this.
Me? I’m going out in the woods today and see if I can scare up one of these golden geese I have heard so much about. The ones that lay golden eggs and don’t eat.
If you’d like to spend $400 bucks to prove me wrong, have at it.
If it works, you’ll know it when I put up a daily reading fee that can realistically generate more than 350,000,000 Satoshis per month replacing advertising.
Until that glorious day (and when Dinars are worth megabux) the $400 might be better spent on remedial math classes.
Think Sink, Flat and Shrinking Back Orders
Durable Goods are just out. So hot off the press release:
New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $4.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $236.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 1.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased less than $0.1 billion, or virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders decreased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $4.8 billion or 5.8 percent to $78.7 billion.
Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased less than $0.1 billion, or virtually unchanged, to $243.2 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent July increase. Primary metals, down ten of the last eleven months, drove the decrease, $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $20.5 billion.
Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,195.3 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $2.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $800.3 billion.
Going into this, futures were down 133 on the Dow then down 150’ish after.
Mouthing the Flu
Turns out, it develops on the roof of your mouth. No information on whether brushing the top of your mouth would help…
Wait…wouldn’t alcohol (I’m thinking something 15-years or older) rolled around up there help? Is this why moderate boozers don’t seem to get colds as bad? Two year old data over here.
That Lying Hillary?
We both know the answer…Maybe it runs in the family: Depends what you mean by classified, maybe?
Still, reports like “Hillary Clinton: Come Clean or Get Out” are gaining traction on the net.
And in other bad news for the owners of the American Aristocracy who’ve spent so much money buying puppets, we see Jeb Bush is being left in the dust, as well.
Maybe families and the stock from whence we come matters, after all.