Longwave Econ: Downside About Here

imageWW III is on, at least in part:  The Russian-backed Syria government has launched another massive attack on ISIS this morning.  Later today, the U.S. markets may wake up to the fact we’re been flanked and fooled and Iran may taken Iraq.

Over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house, we’ve been chasing down a crackpot theory about how the market of today has a curious resonance with an earlier period.

In this highly experimental work, we are considering the period that would match today with September of 2011.  That was a period of marked decline, just as today is, or should be shortly.

This is terribly important stuff to watch for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that it demonstrates the “Manufacturer’s Resource Wars” which should put the 30-years War to shame.

Since we suspect this fall of 2011 period, I went looking for more details about how the U.S. was doing with its “foreign entanglements” back then:  And from a BBC website page:

2011 August – Violence escalates, with more than 40 apparently co-ordinated nationwide attacks in one day.

US pull out

2011 December – US completes troop pull-out.

Unity government faces disarray. Arrest warrant issued for vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi, a leading Sunni politician. Sunni bloc boycotts parliament and cabinet.

The point not to be missed is that the U.S. pull out was underway by December of that year.  From today’s analog in my work to that period means about 50-more market trading days before the U.S. will have to “crap or get off the pot” in Syria.

Market lows, however, do not occur precisely in lockstep with secular events. The low back in 2011 came well before the end of U.S. engagement in Iraq and, in today’s climate, we should be hitting a market low in just 8-12 trading days from now.

Can It Happen?

Let’s be honest:  Anything can happen on any trading day, but the PowersThatBe on the Corporate/Globalist side of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars really need a face-saving distraction along in here.

We could describe in details what the operational profile would do:  Ideally it would:

Be an event linked to “terrorism” thus increasing justifications for stealing more rights from American citizens who are nothing more than tax chattel.

It would place the U.S. firmly into a “victim role” such that people in other countries might be sympathetic to the U.S. loss.

Most important or all, it would give the stock market something to blame.  And because of this (false flag?) event, the market could decline 10% or more and the real PowersThatBe (the corporate oligarchy) would be able to “stiff” people like me who hold put (shorting) options under the pretense that whatever the “event” is would fall under the force majeure interpretation.

So that’s what I would be expecting. 

Not that it’s a 100% chance, but rather than admit that the shadow government of the U.S, has no business whipping up wars, the entrenched Powers will find some way to sleaze out of harms way and steal money from whoever has it on the way. Bandits wrapped in flags and declaring their innocence.

Not to be too pessimistic here, but public recognition that a Second Depression was looming was a precursor to events that followed in late summer of 2001, as well.

Either this, or the dream state of America is legit and people who see a world running out of resource and loaded with far too many humans to support are nothing more than a collection of crazoids.

The choice is yours, but the curtain is about to go up on the next act.

Western Sabers Rattle:  Noisily and Poorly

So with this framework, namely that the corporate oligarchs are trying to scam through the Trans Pacific Partnership to complete the sale of America into corporate bondage, along comes Russia which has inflicted more harm on ISIS in two weeks than the U.S. has in six months.

The Western response is predictable:  NATO is now “troubled” says the Washington Post this morning.

Ure’s truly would suggest that NATO is many months late to the party and up to 150,000 Russian soldier’s don’t just drive down from St. Petersburg for the weekend.  Wars cast long shadows before them, and this one is no different.

The West prepared for war in the wrong place (Ukraine) and Putin is a better chess player than any of the wannabes this administration has been listening to.

In fact, says the NY Times today, the West is more than ever plowing more resources into the defense of Europe.

This is particularly troubling because the Islamists have already beaten NATO in Europe but no one will admit the point.  But just where exactly do the NATO planners think this “behind-the-lines” force will sit…on the sidelines?

Just this morning a boost came from the Nobel Committee as a Belarus author snagged the prize for Literature.  The West never had a chance at the literature prize, since Literature is not an app.

It’s not going well for Truth, Justice, and the American  way.

Truth was buried about the time of President Kennedy, Justice went on long-term disability with corporation victory in Citizens United and the American way has been effectively stopped from creating a fresh generation of patriots because the LBGT movement doesn’t create replacements at the same rate as heteros.

Putin,  who has been roasted in the West for Russians hard line against LBGT marketing, has obviously figured out that in order to win wars, you need people. 

The U.S. may have figured that out in part, but our solution is import people who don’t hold our values and who can’t speak English.  Worse, many want to bring in the poor lifestyle choices they left.

We’re not only screwed, but not screwed at the same time.

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. is under pressure to come up with a Syria strategy…but our best advice comes down to this:  Don’t hold your breath.

The operators of shopping centers announced this week that Eight in Ten U.S. Households are making Halloween Purchases this year.

That must mean only two out of ten realize the scariest stuff this year is around the eastern Med.

Are there other stories this morning?

Sure.

Do any of them hold a candle to the U.S. being sounded whacked on the pechewzelwhacker in the Middle East?

Nope.

Markets are a bit slow, but eventually, someone besides us will figure out the gravity of the situation and here comes our Left Field Event and there goes 10 percent of market cap.

Driven to Drink?

AB InBev ups its offer for SABMiller to create beer giant.

The end of Miller time?

Comments

Longwave Econ: Downside About Here — 18 Comments

  1. Ken wrote:
    “…that is also why we should not be involved in the middle east”

    It is Marduk & sons that are responsible for forcing the involvement. Research will show that certain entities sadly hold grudges for over 1000’s of years.

  2. Since you mention it, the woman who won the Nobel prize for Literature is sort of a ‘Slavic Studs Terkel’ and not at all friendly to the powers-that-be or Russia. Good on her!

    Putin may be getting pressure from his people to ‘do something’ as the Russian economy is really bad right now and wars can be terribly distracting . . . and he wants to be seen as POWERFUL . . . (which speaks to having some ‘interesting personal issues’.

  3. Did I also miss something? It’s not a fixation on the LGBT movement. More like seeing with your eyes wide open! Seems more like we are being desensitized with all the media coverage of that sewage.

    The bad things that are probably coming will most likely be delivered by our own. Hope we’re ready.

    There goes the Joe Fish song in my head again. Could it be that Brain On Fire you eloquently told us about because I have a couple little odds and ends on a project in the garage I think I’ll do instead of hitting the rack on time tonight. Then load up for the weekend at El Rancho De Chaos.

  4. “The operators of shopping centers announced this week that Eight in Ten U.S. Households are making Halloween Purchases this year.”

    Do I ‘trust’ those stats?

    Ever do the ‘stats’ on how many of these mall/shopping center owners are Chinese? Half our town is up here in the NW; not many are even aware. Lots of empty stores now ’cause honest merchants can’t afford the rising rents and the owners I hear tell don’t give a crap.

  5. George, since you are talking about military inductees, I figured you must not be aware that Russia still uses conscription…not just enlistees (as the US does). Russia 18-27 years of age for compulsory or voluntary military service; males are registered for the draft at 17 years of age; 1-year(down from 2 yrs in 2008) service obligation (conscripts can only be sent to combat zones after 6 months of training); reserve obligation for non-officers to age 50; enrollment in military schools from the age of 16, cadets classified as members of the armed forces
    note: the chief of the General Staff Mobilization Directorate announced in May 2013 that for health reasons, only 65% of draftees called up during the spring 2013 draft campaign were fit for military service, and over 12% of these were sent for an additional medical examination (by way of comparison, 69.9% in 2012 and 57.7% in 2011 were deemed fit for military service); approximately 50% of draft-age Russian males receive some type of legal deferment each draft cycle (2014)…Russia is also in the midst of Military reform (pay and conditions) and more robust support for service men/women. I doubt the LGBT thing applies to Russian military induction.

  6. George…I still have been unable to understand your fixation on the ‘LGBT movement’ as cause of population decline. For that to have any significance the way you are postulating, homosexuality would have to be a choice. Sorry, but I don’t buy it. I have yet to see a study anywhere stating an increase in homosexuality in the population. As for Russia, you might check out the resurgence of the Orthodox church…and ‘patriots’…You might as well use the term ‘fodder’ instead…that’s how Corpgov thinks of them…otherwise, why the BS with VA medical backlogs/denials…equipment shortages…proxy ‘enemies’, black flags and all the rest of the BS associated with the MIC? The foot soldier has always been the low man on the totem pole and very expendable, with the only requirement a flag draped coffin. When it comes to war, I’ll go with Smedley Butler.

    • I must have missed something.. I don’t see a fixation to the LBGT movement .. the stories of the group looking for legal rights really does have a credible part of the driving forces of the united states and what could change otherwise predictable outcomes.. simple movement.. who really cares.. very few.. that use it as a jumping point for politics.. they use biblical standards when they themselves haven’t really read the biblical standards they are quoting..(that is also why we should not be involved in the middle east.. it is a biblical war that we cannot win..and we spending money we don’t have will have drastic consequences in the very near future.)

    • George, the breeders ain’t breedin. It has little to do with LGBT issues as this group either does or doesn’t and is still a minimal % of parentage and population in our society. Millenials and Gen X couples are putting off families due to economic concerns and so we fall into a similar trap we see in Japan today. They have a 10 year jump on us, but I suspect we boomers will be regretting impoverishing them with student loans when we are (possibly) all drawing on SS and Medicare as a block and there is no new wage-slave fodder to pump up the budget.

    • You might want to consider the ubiquitous hormone disrupting chemistry in the USA – Could it be deliberate to alter numbers of “different” individuals?

    • Speaking of Russia and LGBT matters, does it seem to you that Vlad is trying far too hard to appear “manly”? Can you say “over compensation”?
      Calling Dr. Freud….

  7. Truth was buried w/ JFK? I remember reading about a Dog who carried a lamp while searching for an honest man…and that was about 2500 years ago. He never found one. When anyone wants something from someone else, the truth goes out the window.

    also, see: ‘Timeline US military’ and “War is a Racket”.

    • yeah.. I hear you..Now if you want a conspiracy.. all you have to do is watch this cell phone video of the twin tower collapse then ask yourself. Are our leaders really as honest as they say they are.. or is George right.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWV-txzhm40 when he wrote this..”Can It Happen?

      Let’s be honest: Anything can happen on any trading day, but the PowersThatBe on the Corporate/Globalist side of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars really need a face-saving distraction along in here.

      We could describe in details what the operational profile would do: Ideally it would:

      Be an event linked to “terrorism” thus increasing justifications for stealing more rights from American citizens who are nothing more than tax chattel.

      It would place the U.S. firmly into a “victim role” such that people in other countries might be sympathetic to the U.S. loss.”