How Long Can Stocks “Climb the Wall of Worry?”

Let me share just one point from our Peoplenomics.com report our Saturday for subscribers:  Friday was a down day for the market, overall.

Oh, sure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up almost 34-points.  But declines in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were such that if you had equal dollars in all three, you would have come out down for the day.

This is the core of Aggregate Market theory which is one of our useful little inventions around here.  We like to look at data (like the Dow, or whatever) of course.  But sometimes there’s a bigger context and when an eclipse is coming up, those “larger contexts” might be very much worth keeping in mind.

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Let’s talk about some eclipse predictions:

One reported widely on the ‘net is that Arch Crawford, who is really one of the all-time architects of Financial Astrology, says he expects the eclipse period to be “near” to military conflict.  Not that the eclipses all by itself is a big deal, but astro alignments are such that we enter a “window.”  (You’ll remember Arch nailed 9/11.)

The headlines are shaping the worries ahead nicely, already:

Putin orders US to cut diplomatic staff in Russia.

STATE DEPT SLAMS CARACAS US vows ‘strong and swift’ actions after ‘sham’ Venezuela elections.

DISCUSSING ALL OPTIONS US, Japan agree to take further action on N. Korea.

Russia flaunts military might.

Asia stocks subdued after North Korea missile test, await flurry of data, earnings.

U.S. Flies Bombers and Tests Missile Defense After North Korea ICBM Launch.

When viewed in the context of such headlines, Arch’s work may not be far from the mark.

Our own work, which for months has been pointing to a top in the August 21-24 timeframe, may also come in “close” – but it will all depend on how the headlines wash out over the next three weeks.

In the meantime, though, we could be very cautious about getting too anxious about tossing new money into the market, at least until we have a solid 2-3 day pullback to the bottom of the present trend channel.   After that, an “up, up and away” mood to the top would fit just perfectly.

Years so, though, at the old Frontier Sports Book, where a colleague had been teaching me the art of handicapping, I put a few bucks on a horse that all the figures said should be coming in first place.  Being no fool, I put a hefty show bet on.

That horse came in DFL.

I asked my colleague how this could happen – and I still look at markets this way even now:  “Well, George, the Horse didn’t read the Daily Racing Form.”

Markets, like horses are irrational in the short term but predictable in the long term.

This week I have the stock market equivalent of a $30,000 place bet on the market for the coming few weeks.

Hope the market reads UrbanSurvival.

Bitcoin’s Technical Problem

Here’s another one worth watching:  You’ll remember we characterized Bitcoin as being in a possible “hesitation moment” before blowing off to a final high?

Here’s a corner of a chart courtesy of www.bitcoincharts.com to consider:

I have tossed a few numbers up:  You can see from the (so far) all-time high, there has been a 1 down,  a 2 up, and now we can see either Bitcoin starting an upside breakout from right here.  OR, we could see it dropping down to put in a lower low than the bottom of 2.

We don’t play the crypto currency game – since it is even less real than the fiat/paper game of the Fed.

Still, if we break out higher than the incept of 1, then our $3,000+ target will be in play, but if we take out the lows of 2 to the downside, then you will want to consider standing aside.

All a matter of taste and appetite for risk.  Third waves down are typically 1.5 times the magnitude of wave 1’s.

Can Employment Be TOO Good?

The main economic news (other than flash goggle sales and maybe a check with Shane Conner over at www.ki4u.com to see how potassium iodide pills are doing) should be employment data at the end of the week.

We have been seeing very good employment numbers, but there is also softness in the housing markets we follow, including the Phoen ix area where it “feels” – looking at north Phoenix homes with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a pool – like prices aren’t going up.

But the employment rate has been solid, but even this can be a problem.  You see, in markets like Seattle and Portland, the cost of labor (typically $15 per hour and up now) is so high it is driving some food businesses to close.  They can’t afford the food, employees, and overhead,  at prevailing price points.

Eventually, this is called wage-driven inflation.  But it’s not a national phenomena yet.  Right now it’s mainly in the “go-go” markets.

Our touchstones for the rest of this week:  Personal incomes tomorrow, ADP job creation Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday, and the Labor Department data Friday.

Meantime, Hot and cold: Euro zone grows but inflation slows/

Big winner in overnight market action was the Hang Seng, up more than 1%.  Europe is bouncing after late week losses last week.  And the US looks to pop up 50, or so.  But the real questions revolve around confidence and how the White House is doing.

White House Changes

See White House shakeup watch: Why the media prefer Kelly over Priebus.

North Korea’s DPRK News Service has gotten on  the Trump bashing, tweeting:

“Friday afternoon, once seen by Americans as time of leisurely workplace slacking, now feared in anticipatory dread of leader’s incontinence.”

Real question is whether retired Gen. John Kelly – ex-head of Homeland – will be able to stop the leaks out of Trumpville.

I’d be looking for a high-profile “Example” to be set.

Not Climate Change

But rain for the South? Keep an eye on this Tropical Storm Watch.

Matters of Taste

We loved this bit from Science Daily: What’s in your rum? Flavor scientists create a lexicon of terms to describe nuances of popular beverage.

A little early to pour a shot of field research, but a worthy story to study.

Comments

How Long Can Stocks “Climb the Wall of Worry?” — 31 Comments

  1. There is a window of time to see these 2 parts for free. A great education regarding the motion picture industry leading to the MSM and the destroying of our culture. This is a very important topic; once a person get this, the eyes open wide and they can make informed decisions about what kind of crap they want to subject themselves and their families to. I stopped supporting this crap a long time ago. You can, too, vote with your wallet, your feet will follow, and so will the footsteps of your family.

    http://www.mainstreammedia.us/premiere/

  2. Can’t help it. I am utterly agog at government stupidity. Florida declared a state of emergency over a tropical storm, forecast to deliver a whopping 2-4 inches of rain.

    ROFLMAO!!

    Honestly – next it will be state of emergency due to excessive sunshine. Maybe it’s because 3/4 of Floridians are from DC-NYC corridor? I decide whether to cringe or laugh at this type of insanity. FMTT…

  3. George,

    I remember reading many, many years ago of a kind of spirits to which was added ‘a dead chicken’ – popular ‘with young swells’ around 1700 – a comment added that they ‘supposed it might appeal to an unsophisticated palate.’

    I read that to mean that you have to be careful about what you put in liquor else it tastes like ‘drek’. (Bacon-flavored vodka? Yuck!)

  4. I think the stock market won’t go down and housing won’t crash because we are going int stagflation. In other words if in 2023 your Starbucks half cat decaf with a twist of lemon spritzer costs $38.00 instead of $3,80 but your two million dollar shack is still a two million dollar shack and the Dow has doubled and minimum wage has gone up from $12.00 to $55.00 you are actually not any farther ahead. In fact I would argue you are losing to stagflation.

  5. George,

    Here’s just a casual observation regarding the eclipse and possible simultaneous military conflict: when a President seriously considers going to war, he invariably does TWO things. He draws his military closer to him and he talks to his Pastor. Trump just appointed a former Army General as his COS – this is his closest advisor and one who truly shapes policy. In Kelly’s case those four Gold stars will leverage alot more than west wing staffing.

    And recently formal weekly Bible studies have become common in the White House, attended by as many as 12 members of the Trump cabinet. First time in about 100 years. They are already calling upon God for guidance during the troubled times ahead.

    Political zeal is a powerful tool but when coupled with religious fervor it becomes a formidable weapon that can easily justify it’s use in extreme circumstances… as in a first strike scenario. Once a man convinces himself that his actions are morally right, there is little left to hinder him!

    I’m watching our military hierarchy closely now for any outward utterances that even remotely sound righteous because that will be the clue that something big is about to go down!

    Let’s all just hope that God is on their side -and consequently, ours- when it does!

    • Yes, we noticed George Bush the 2nd was outwardly facing religious and referred to it in his speeches, so was Obama, both a Christian and a Muslim, and we note that the Menorah and celebrations were held on the front lawn of the White House for Dickens years, so your point is? The bankers don’t care who makes our laws as long as they own the printing presses, and they don’t care what religion we are either, surely that is common fact by now. Bush, and Obama, with or without their religions on their breastplates, took us to war.

      • I was illustrating how current events within the administration suggest a movement toward possible military agression in the near future. I was also making the case that all wars have had religion somewhere present to justify same. But, there are wars and there are wars; and what we have seen in recent history pales in comparison to what may well occur. Further: in essence you proved my point…

        Bush used his faith in God’s guidance as reassurance that he was doing “the right thing” – but, honestly, I don’t think Obama was in the least bit concerned and that many of his decisions were ego-based. And, THAT is the difference. A man who thinks he is morally exempt from condemnation will act without hesitation -Harry Truman sought extensive spiritual advice before he finally annihilated Japan in 1945- and he possessed far more conscience than many of his successors! The fact that Trump’s entire cabinet is seemingly on-board with and seeking divine inspiration only illustrates the mindset of the administration. I suppose we could do worse. Many would claim that we already have!

        BTW: while the bankers aren’t the ones who will actually order the bombs to drop, they should actually welcome war. They’ve milked the current global economic situation just about as far as they can but require something dramatic to push the entire world economy into guaranteed limbo. A war will accomplish that and the more 24/7 tragedy that is reported, the better. Massive, catastrophic death and destruction is the perfect diversion to cover their ultimate takeover. It’s also less resistance to worry about in the aftermath. It could be swift and a done deal before anyone blinks a tear-filled eye.

        Of course: this is all just “woo-woo”, right?

    • No Woo Woo, Gregory, prognostication based on past performance, otherwise known as common sense. I understood you perfectly.

  6. “A little early to pour a shot of field research, but a worthy story to study.”

    Here is my last field research..

    Two bottles of the cheapest vodka for research only..
    1cup of sugar
    1 lemon chopped
    1 orange chopped
    4 cloves
    12 dried tart cherries
    1 large can of peaches heavy syrup
    1 inch of cinnamon sticks ( you can adjust how much cinnamon my wife likes half inch)
    Pour all of this in a two gallon bucket mash and stir then let it set for no less than two weeks. ( I let it set for a month)
    Then strain and filter and put back in the bottles. Mix with coke or whatever you enjoy your drink mixed with..
    Perfect field research material.

    • Oops make sure you seal the bucket with the lid after you mixed it up

  7. George, nice economic column today. As my Dad also used to say: “Horses don’t bet on people.”

    But, re the White House — Isn’t the problem what is being said, not that it is being said? Otherwise you’re really just talking about more lipstick, or just keeping it in the dark. It’s still a pig. Mike.

    • I see no more problems in the White House than any other young administration. The real pig pen is the CONgress, where a nest of nasty lawyer retreads have done all they can to blockade any sensible path for our nation. I do think they all need to be stripped of their privileges using any legal means necessary. They should all be sent home and replaced by lottery for a maximum term of two years.

  8. RE: Eclipses and war – in an amazing coincidence, a total solar eclipse traversed S. Asia and the S. Pacific on September 21st, 1941, just over two months before Japan attacked the U.S. Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor. However, far, far more total, partial and annular eclipses have no recorded wars near the time of their occurrences that those that do. Lunar eclipses are also quite frequent. The 2014-15 lunar blood moon tetrad was viewed by many to have ominous implications for humanity. The jury is still out on that series of astronomical events, although the significance of the lunar tetrad is that all four fell on Jewish religious holidays (two on Passover and two on the Feast of Tabernacle). But then the Jewish calendar is lunar based, so such coincidences are more common as a result. Astrologers frequently look to Nostradamus for prediction clues, since he routinely cited celestial alignments in his quatrains. Some Nostradamus interpreters predict the imminent dawning of WWIII and global economic collapse through their reading of the French mystic’s prophecies. An lastly, there is a supposed Revelation 12 alignment that will happen on September 23rd of this year in and adjacent to the constellation Virgo (goggle the date to view numerous articles). This celestial event also coincides with Rosh Hashanah, the feast of Trumpets. Is there any potential significance? Well, the Sep 23rd alignment supposedly marks the start of the Tribulation, a 7-year period of global misery leading to Armageddon. That his alignment happens on the Feast of Trumpets is seen by many as the ‘first trumpet’ of Revelation’s 7 trumpets. However, it just might be the case that the fervent belief of all three Abrahamic religions that war will precede the appearance of their respective religious saviors may in-fact become self-fulfilling prophecies, opening the door for zealots to launch wars in the hopes of enabling mankind’s spiritual salvation. Personally, I’m suspicious of astrology and prophecy, but keep an open mind to the various Woo-Woo possibilities. As the wise sages (and sound investors) always say: “only time will tell.”

    • I REALLY do wish people would be more accurate! Armageddon is a PLACE (where the armies are gathered together), NOT an EVENT! The ‘Apocalypse’ is the EVENT! It is as ridiculous as someone confusing tsunami with surface or ‘surfable’ waves!

      Robert

      • Setting people straight, keeping them in literary line, reminding them of what they forgot is a worthwhile endeavor, thank you for your refresher course.

    • Warhammer,

      Well said on your Eclipse & Prophecy discussion! Might I add a few more tidbits from my venture down the rabbit hole? First, in terms of legend, lore, and astrophysics (etc), the Aug 21st Eclipse is significant because it qualifies as a Black Moon (3rd New Moon in a Season of Four…). Second, your Tetrad/Shemitah description is accurate but incomplete (IMHO). The Tetrads “Trigger” when they fall on the Jewish Festival days, which they’ve done a total of 9 times since 32 AD, or in round numbers, the approximately 2,000 years spanning the Zodiac Age of Pisces. Translated, on both ends of those Jewish Festival and Shemitah “bookends” is the idea that the Tetrads actually Triggered the Jubilee 50 year cycle this time – which is the rule when the (Triggered) 7th Shemitah 7-year cycle & series ends after 49 years on a Jubilee. Consequently, the Jubilee Cycle that went “hot” on Oct 2nd, 2016 will now play out according to the Debt Cancelation theme, as it did in 1917. Four Empires were destroyed then: Austria-Hungary, Ottoman, Russian (Czar), and the British all declined or collapsed as WW II got underway. Guess which 4 empires will collapse during the next 7 years? LoL – you can start with the four biggest Superpowers/Empires on the planet and track their destruction & collapse as WW III gets underway. Third, before we leave the topic of the Shemitah cycle we should also note that the two consecutive Tetrad Passover & Tabernacle Festival Dates that Triggered the 2016 Jubilee Cycle were the exact same two in the 32 AD series that bracketed the Crucifixion of Christ. Furthermore, of the 9 Shemitah/Tetrad events that occurred since 32 AD, this last event was the only one that landed on the same identical Passover & Tabernacle Days. More? Fourth, not only did we bracket the 2,000 year Piscean Age with those Shemitah/Tetrad Cycles in 32 AD & 2015-16 AD that triggered the Jewish Cultural & Legal traditions of Atonement & War & Debt Cancellation (etc), the upcoming Sept 23rd 2017 Astrophysical alignment from Revelation 12 that you mentioned brackets a 6,002 year period of human history that began in Genesis 6:3, where the passage clearly indicates a 6,000 year period since the exact same “Woman Clothed with the Sun” alignment occurred. The above Scripture from Genesis is of course describing 120 years of Jubilee Cycles (120 x 50 = 6,000). People at the time were living to well over 900 years old, so the passage in context refers to 6,000 years of human history, clearly embedded for us from the beginning of OT history. Fifth, that of course brings up a Fractal Pattern to go with the Astrophysics, where the world was created in 6 days, which fractally corresponds to 6,000 years of human history. 2 Peter 3:8 explains that 1 Day = 1 Thousand Years. In both the 6 day and 6,000 year version there is a 1,000 year period coming next, with a theme of “Rest.” Sixth. However, to get there we have that ever so persistent theme of a 7 year period of Tribulation in order to birth the 1,000 year millennium just recently triggered by the Tetrad & Jubilee Cycles. That of course returns us to the Aug 21st 2017 Solar Eclipse and Black Moon later this month. Yes, it is another Astrophysical Timing Marker that connects to the next Solar Eclipse 7 years later on April 8th, 2024. Look at the Moon’s ground track on the two Solar Eclipses. You can’t help but note it paints a giant “X” over the USA. Maybe somebody in the Higher Realms has a pretty good sense of humor?

  9. Geroge, I had a killer weekend. Took one Indian casino for $2250! hit a jack pot. Then went to the local dirt track races and stopped by another and took $1000 off the roulette table. Lol paid off all my credit cards. Ha ha ha. Only $3k more to go and I’m completely debt free.

    I used to work at the first casino as a slot machine inspector. If you rememeber, i was a tribal casino regulator for 7 years. ;) they paid me and I got asked to leave. Lol it has been 3 years since I worked there.

    Not enough to quit my real job. Still it was pretty fun. Winning is always fun.

    Off to grab 18 gears. Have a good week.

    • It’s great to win very few tell how much they’ve lost previously only what the current win is.
      Obviously from the lights noise and great meals they serve the casino’s are the ones making money

      • Lmao I’m not a long hauler. I’m a heavy hauler construction trucker. Treamster Union.

        I drive a side dump full of dirt, concrete or asphalt.

        Non union pays sh!t. Union pays really really well. Plus we get overtime after 8 and double time after 12.

        Company pays my benefits and pension on top of my wage. Unions are responsible for the prevailing wage act. Which is $54 an hour in my area. $62 on US government interstate projects.

        We have a 2 year work back log. Because there is just not enough drivers who can heavy haul, and not enough dump trucks.

        By heavy haul I mean we run 105,500 lbs all day long. Long haulers only move 80,000 lbs.

        We shift all day long and drive in the city and long haulers hit the cruise control and kick back. Big difference.

      • Pappy used to refer to this kind of driving as “combat driving” lol

  10. If it’s true that over 80 countries are investing in the stock market how can we ever see the market Fall? It looks to me like if that much money has been invested in the stock market, the various countries will never allow the market to go down, but will buy it back if it starts to fall.

    • No Eyes talking to Mary Summer Rain in 1984: “Stock Market fall like big tree in forest, never coming back again.”

      That’s how it can happen.

  11. what this means is there will not be enough investors to prop it up, so it looks like 2018 will be a very down down we’ll almost down year
    There is hope if Trump denies the central Bankers access to the United States and says your forbidden and and will take back the US Treasury and forbid the foreign Federal Reserve Bankers for Leavin doing business here now that may come down the wind warm 8 start

    • There were not enough investors, way back when, then 401K were introduced. Instead of the rich taking from each other, they (whoever they are), made the momentous decision to include the plebes (us).

      Same is happening to the Healthcare system. There are too many po folks that can’t afford government controlled and protected health care, so get the masses (us) in.

      Same shenanigans, just different packaging, except the MANDATORY part. At least 401K was superficially voluntary, when the pensions stopped (aka: thrown off the cliff) there was not much else but to join, creating a GHOST MANDATORY (only an idiot would not plan for a future).

      P.T. Barnum let the cat out of the bag. A lot of idiots are born. An no one was listening or watching for the flim flam.

  12. Okay since I don’t have anything invested in the stock market I will say November 6th is how long it’s going to continue going up up until that date
    Then on that date the Shire horse of England will go down