Like I said: Boring News Week

I could tell you the futures are about flat.

Might even mention that Europe, which our Peoplenomics.com readers know is in a “must rally” position to avoid global collapse has given up more than 200 points in the last 24-hours so doesn’t look like we will see a new global (aggregate) all-time-high this week.

Or I could mention that this week’s “time out” for the markets is merely a rest stop since next week we get a ton of real economic news.

Durable goods come Monday, GDP and the Case-Shiller Housing indices Tuesday, Personal Income Wednesday, chain store sales Thursday, and Janet Yellen has a speaking role Friday afternoon.

The way the calendar lines up next month, though, we won’t have “offishul” gov’t employment data until the 10th.

All in all, as I told you,, this is a pretty lame week.

Lame…lame….hmmm…yes!  Here’s a story:

Ryan Goes Grand-standing

Or, is he just horsing around?

My opinion of House Speaker Paul Ryan, as you know, didn’t have much further down it could go. But the video of him “touring the Mexico border” – on horseback, no less – is about as close to political grand-standing as I’ve seen.

Granted, I have only been seeing political hacks up-close and in news conferences since 1970, but it occurs to me that America’s problems are in Washington D.C. – not the battle zone down at McAllen, Texas.

I was thinking, though, in second of seriousness, that maybe we’d get lucky and Ryan would just keep riding. South.

He hasn’t put any points of the board for coming up with a reasonable immigration plan, and last time I looked, repeal, replacement, and IMPROVEMENT of Obamacare was still just a D.C. political hack’s vote swindle.

I’ve been saying for years, the way to fix Ocare is to repair the broken V.A. system and then turn that into a national government HMO…but WTF do I know? For now, Obamacare is just a way to make healthcare exec’s rich and bend over the public.\

On immigration, “Get Legal of GTFO” seems simple enough to me. GLOGTFO.  Pass it on.

Ure has No quarrel with ANY immigrant…just a quarrel with law-breakers.  Laws are laws unless you support the invasion and want to become Mexico, know what I mean?

The Daily Trump Bash

Meanwhile the Daily Trump Bash (once upon a time labeled the NY Times) seems to mislead a bit with the headline “Immigrants Hide, Fearing Capture on ‘Any Corner’.” What the headline misses?   Brainwashing note: It doesn’t mention that LEGAL IMMIGRANTS HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR. Back-tar and dirt-weed packers? …well, sure.

Any media that doesn’t use the term illegal aliens – and has bent over on the PC/BS “undocumented” needs to be boycotted.  We gotta learn not to bullshit ourselves.  18 U.S. Code is not that hard to read…even with today’s lame-brained education system.

To do otherwise is like calling a house fire a “house warming event.”  Zhit like that.

This is just one more N.E. lib Trump attack as I see it. Maybe the companion article (“Trump Rescinds Protections for Transgender Students”) might have questioned the legality of what Obama did on that score, essentially taking on the role of “law maker-upper” instead of “faithfully executing” the responsibilities of office.  Notice that Super O and the leaky border plan and the full employment for plumbers stuff can’t be questioned lest the questioners be labeled a racist.

Besides, look how good S.A. gangs have been for law and order in Chicago…soon to be Chirica or Honcago.

Speaking of SA gangstahs… It will escape most people but there was this event called the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in February of 1929. This is why we are presently looking for the discovery of a drug-related mass murder which would be a modern rhyme of back-then.

USA Today – which you’ll remember endorsed what’s-her-name – has picked up the bash Trump on transgenders theme with “Jackie Evancho to Trump: Meet with me and transgender sister.”

My advice to Trump? Ask ‘em if they play golf.

The Real News…Zhit that Matters News

…Is that neither you, or we, won last night’s Powerball: “One winning ticket sold for $435M Powerball jackpot.”

The good news, such as it is? We don’t have to live in Indiana…

The Federal Reserve Minutes

You know what LEAPS are, right?

(If not, write Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities on the white board 100 times and don’t go huffing the marker, ‘K?)

You might want to play along with our subscribers who are hip to LEAPS purchases (December of this year and beyond) and premiums as THE VEHICLE OF CHOICE to advance you play that exciting game “Pin the Top on the Stock Market.”

When the LEAPS premiums get high, it might mean Big Money is getting ready to crash the economy, blame Trump, hound him out of office Hoover-like since he’s already reprising Hoover’s 1929 role…

In the Minutes the Fed saying in its Minutes “fairly soon” on a rate hike smacks of the Revenue Act of 1929.

In that, there was a modest tax cut, but the Fed was moving rates up. Then when things crashed, Congress didn’t act smart, taxes when up in 1932 – and that took a big recession and turned it into a Great Depression.

Investopedia has a good article on effective hedging with LEAPS over here – definitely worth your time. OR you can use the Ure two-pronged approach when time comes: Part in the triple-levered bear ETFs and part in long expiration options.

Then your only problem is whether your investment house will remain solvent and will pay off your winnings.

Not yet, though.

We still have a possible pension collapse crisis and such to run, yet.

Here’s the Fed Minutes section that sums things up:

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased. A few participants noted that continuing to remove policy accommodation in a timely manner, potentially at an upcoming meeting, would allow the Committee greater flexibility in responding to subsequent changes in economic conditions. Several judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate was high, particularly if economic growth was faster than currently expected. If that situation developed, the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than most participants currently anticipated to limit the buildup of inflationary pressures. However, with inflation still short of the Committee’s objective and inflation expectations remaining low, a few others continued to see downside risks to inflation or anticipated only a gradual return of inflation to the 2 percent objective as the labor market strengthened further. A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee’s communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year and stressed the importance of communicating that policy will respond to the evolving economic outlook as appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. Participants also generally agreed that the Committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, as well as how those changes would be implemented and communicated.”

Nowhere, once again, did I see any discussion of what I’ve explained to you in the “Bond market disintermediation problem” that could drive the Dow up to 30,663 – which would be a perfect rhyme on ’29.

This one of the reasons (money out of bonds and into stocks, chasing yields) that the Dow keeps screaming skyward.

As stodgy money gets to chasing stocks, a long-term price to earnings ratio chart (like this one over here) hints we may be on our way…

Chicago Fed National Activity Number

Press release du jour:

“Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in January from +0.18 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January.”

If you have a graphic processor in your head, try this instead:

clip_image001

Complete details (you need to spend your time more effectively, though) may be summoned from here.

Mr. Ure – suffering from a slight cold – signs off for another morning reminding you to come by tomorrow morning when I promise to be less cranky and more PC.

Or not.

Comments

Like I said: Boring News Week — 18 Comments

    • YOUR? One more outburst of that kind of bullshit and you’re banned.
      This site does not endorse the KKK, BLM, or any other organizations which base membership of race.

  1. George, Thought you had an excellent economics column last week, maybe on last Thursday or Friday.

    BTW, although it was pretty funny, why so hard on Ryan? At least his economic policies would only put $7 trillion onto the national debt instead of Trump’s $11 trillion. If I’m following you right, won’t that really run up our interest rates?

    But please explain more in upcoming days about your Obamacare modification plan. Are you talking about more than merely a single payer system? What you thinking?

    Lastly, could you discuss jobs in the Rustbelt? I heard 87% gone because of automation with way way more to be lost in next 5-10 years. You seem to allude to taking away the depreciation tax break for purchase of such ‘business equipment.’ More? Other? Would really like to hear your ideas laid out in detail here.

    Best, Mike.

  2. Spoke to a hospital tech yesterday. His hospital chain has increased the number of “managers” five fold since Obamacare started. They do things like try to ration linens and hand sanitizer, and insist on unnecessary procedures the government or insurers will pay for, and have less understanding of medicine than most regular folks, but are paid huge salaries. My doctor friends say their net incomes are way down, but the extra money goes to unrestricted Pharma prices and the hordes of self apppointed “managers” and insurance employees. Just as with education, government intrusion has exploded costs while sacrificing quality.

    • Yes, 20% administration costs allows for billions in waste not better care. Canada gets by with 4%.

  3. It seems that nobody today understands the word “immigrant”, or the word “alien” either.

    An immigrant is someone who moves to a country intending to be there permanently and become one with the dominant culture. An immigrant will always be an immigrant, even if they legally become a citizen.

    An alien is another word for “foreigner”. An illegal foreigner is guilty of being illegal no matter how you twist words. They may or may not intend to become immigrants, and an alien who is simply in the country to get work/money to send home is NOT an immigrant.

    People need to stop insulting LEGAL immigrants by dignifying illegal foreigners with unknown intentions by using the word “immigrant”.

    • Thank you! You can give full credit to Obama and the MSM for purposefully confusing these easy to understand terms. These illegals come here to benefit from our society based on the rule of law and then turn right around and break our laws. The illegals that kill, main, assault, burglarize, run over, rape and hurt our citizens are then set free from the sanctuary city jail’s that our taxes pay for AND then they dare to call us racists. Try going to Mexico, kill or rape one of them and see if your AZZ ever leaves their prison.

  4. As a long time subscriber I must tell you I still take offense to your comments like,”This is just one more N.E. lib Trump attack as I see it.
    Having lived in the “Live Free or Die” state for over 15 years now… We support the Prez Donald!
    Go back and read your 1770’s Colonial History to see who had the stones to make this The United States. Or use your Amazon Prime membership to watch “John Adams” mini series.

    Oh, one more thing, Gov. Sununu signs concealed carry bill into law.

    License no longer required to carry loaded gun under jacket or in purse.

    “Live Free or Die”
    That and “Facta non Verba” Deeds not Words!

  5. Immigration is a two way street. I work in construction and can’t believe how many houses I’ve worked on that have Fox News blaring with rich folks complaining loudly about immigrants ruining this country. All the while they are employing Mexican gardeners, house cleaners and more and more often, construction workers. We have an illegal immigrant hiring problem as much as an immigration problem. As long as there is no penalty for hiring, the problem will persist. I have a feeling that these folks will be the first to be outraged when their cheap and exploitable labor dries up.

    • Here’s a thought bucko: Put the able bodied gimme crowd ( that would be tax payer supported work me nots) to work doing same service, hospitality, and field work that your poor illegal aliens are doing. In Florida, field workers get paid $15/hour and hospitality workers start at $9-$10/hour plus tips. Adjust welfare accordingly.

  6. There’s enough PC out there to choke a horse, so tomorrow let’s go with the “or not” option.

    FYI – TX just ok’ed the use of a feral hog poison! Texas A&M Ag Ext proofed it out – it doesn’t affect deer or coyotes or other critters. It is based on warfarin. It turns fat blue, so you would know any hog you killed had been in it and not to eat it.

    I am looking for who is supplying it and will let you know.

  7. History ryhmes, as you know Mr. Ure, and the mass drug murders already happened in Mexico. Close enough when time scaled. Notice it is was a fractals larger event than the first one, as with all other aspects of our world today.