I could tell you the futures are about flat.
Might even mention that Europe, which our Peoplenomics.com readers know is in a “must rally” position to avoid global collapse has given up more than 200 points in the last 24-hours so doesn’t look like we will see a new global (aggregate) all-time-high this week.
Or I could mention that this week’s “time out” for the markets is merely a rest stop since next week we get a ton of real economic news.
Durable goods come Monday, GDP and the Case-Shiller Housing indices Tuesday, Personal Income Wednesday, chain store sales Thursday, and Janet Yellen has a speaking role Friday afternoon.
The way the calendar lines up next month, though, we won’t have “offishul” gov’t employment data until the 10th.
All in all, as I told you,, this is a pretty lame week.
Lame…lame….hmmm…yes! Here’s a story:
Ryan Goes Grand-standing
Or, is he just horsing around?
My opinion of House Speaker Paul Ryan, as you know, didn’t have much further down it could go. But the video of him “touring the Mexico border” – on horseback, no less – is about as close to political grand-standing as I’ve seen.
Granted, I have only been seeing political hacks up-close and in news conferences since 1970, but it occurs to me that America’s problems are in Washington D.C. – not the battle zone down at McAllen, Texas.
I was thinking, though, in second of seriousness, that maybe we’d get lucky and Ryan would just keep riding. South.
He hasn’t put any points of the board for coming up with a reasonable immigration plan, and last time I looked, repeal, replacement, and IMPROVEMENT of Obamacare was still just a D.C. political hack’s vote swindle.
I’ve been saying for years, the way to fix Ocare is to repair the broken V.A. system and then turn that into a national government HMO…but WTF do I know? For now, Obamacare is just a way to make healthcare exec’s rich and bend over the public.\
On immigration, “Get Legal of GTFO” seems simple enough to me. GLOGTFO. Pass it on.
Ure has No quarrel with ANY immigrant…just a quarrel with law-breakers. Laws are laws unless you support the invasion and want to become Mexico, know what I mean?
The Daily Trump Bash
Meanwhile the Daily Trump Bash (once upon a time labeled the NY Times) seems to mislead a bit with the headline “Immigrants Hide, Fearing Capture on ‘Any Corner’.” What the headline misses? Brainwashing note: It doesn’t mention that LEGAL IMMIGRANTS HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR. Back-tar and dirt-weed packers? …well, sure.
Any media that doesn’t use the term illegal aliens – and has bent over on the PC/BS “undocumented” needs to be boycotted. We gotta learn not to bullshit ourselves. 18 U.S. Code is not that hard to read…even with today’s lame-brained education system.
To do otherwise is like calling a house fire a “house warming event.” Zhit like that.
This is just one more N.E. lib Trump attack as I see it. Maybe the companion article (“Trump Rescinds Protections for Transgender Students”) might have questioned the legality of what Obama did on that score, essentially taking on the role of “law maker-upper” instead of “faithfully executing” the responsibilities of office. Notice that Super O and the leaky border plan and the full employment for plumbers stuff can’t be questioned lest the questioners be labeled a racist.
Besides, look how good S.A. gangs have been for law and order in Chicago…soon to be Chirica or Honcago.
Speaking of SA gangstahs… It will escape most people but there was this event called the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in February of 1929. This is why we are presently looking for the discovery of a drug-related mass murder which would be a modern rhyme of back-then.
USA Today – which you’ll remember endorsed what’s-her-name – has picked up the bash Trump on transgenders theme with “Jackie Evancho to Trump: Meet with me and transgender sister.”
My advice to Trump? Ask ‘em if they play golf.
The Real News…Zhit that Matters News
…Is that neither you, or we, won last night’s Powerball: “One winning ticket sold for $435M Powerball jackpot.”
The good news, such as it is? We don’t have to live in Indiana…
The Federal Reserve Minutes
You know what LEAPS are, right?
(If not, write Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities on the white board 100 times and don’t go huffing the marker, ‘K?)
You might want to play along with our subscribers who are hip to LEAPS purchases (December of this year and beyond) and premiums as THE VEHICLE OF CHOICE to advance you play that exciting game “Pin the Top on the Stock Market.”
When the LEAPS premiums get high, it might mean Big Money is getting ready to crash the economy, blame Trump, hound him out of office Hoover-like since he’s already reprising Hoover’s 1929 role…
In the Minutes the Fed saying in its Minutes “fairly soon” on a rate hike smacks of the Revenue Act of 1929.
In that, there was a modest tax cut, but the Fed was moving rates up. Then when things crashed, Congress didn’t act smart, taxes when up in 1932 – and that took a big recession and turned it into a Great Depression.
Investopedia has a good article on effective hedging with LEAPS over here – definitely worth your time. OR you can use the Ure two-pronged approach when time comes: Part in the triple-levered bear ETFs and part in long expiration options.
Then your only problem is whether your investment house will remain solvent and will pay off your winnings.
Not yet, though.
We still have a possible pension collapse crisis and such to run, yet.
Here’s the Fed Minutes section that sums things up:
“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased. A few participants noted that continuing to remove policy accommodation in a timely manner, potentially at an upcoming meeting, would allow the Committee greater flexibility in responding to subsequent changes in economic conditions. Several judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate was high, particularly if economic growth was faster than currently expected. If that situation developed, the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than most participants currently anticipated to limit the buildup of inflationary pressures. However, with inflation still short of the Committee’s objective and inflation expectations remaining low, a few others continued to see downside risks to inflation or anticipated only a gradual return of inflation to the 2 percent objective as the labor market strengthened further. A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee’s communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year and stressed the importance of communicating that policy will respond to the evolving economic outlook as appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. Participants also generally agreed that the Committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, as well as how those changes would be implemented and communicated.”
Nowhere, once again, did I see any discussion of what I’ve explained to you in the “Bond market disintermediation problem” that could drive the Dow up to 30,663 – which would be a perfect rhyme on ’29.
This one of the reasons (money out of bonds and into stocks, chasing yields) that the Dow keeps screaming skyward.
As stodgy money gets to chasing stocks, a long-term price to earnings ratio chart (like this one over here) hints we may be on our way…
Chicago Fed National Activity Number
Press release du jour:
“Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in January from +0.18 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January.”
If you have a graphic processor in your head, try this instead:
Complete details (you need to spend your time more effectively, though) may be summoned from here.
Mr. Ure – suffering from a slight cold – signs off for another morning reminding you to come by tomorrow morning when I promise to be less cranky and more PC.