Lifestyle Collapse 101–A Dot-Connecting Lesson

imageA recent report by the Center for Immigration Studies has shed a lot of light on a topic most people aren’t even aware of.

So let’s break it down for you this morning in simple terms:

Immigration in the new Housing Bubble.

Let’s back up a bit:  First on the Immigration numbers.

This story is getting traction this week because of a Washington Examiner story that says in 8-years, the number of legal plus illegal immigrants coming to the USA will be running 50-million per decade.

Put another way, if you look at the CIS chart, you’ll find that immigration it already running well ahead of where it was in the 1930s, for example.

The problem is the lack of “Dot Connecting” in regards to this story.

As readers know, we have alleged  that the American lifestyle is under vicious attack and that in the wake of the Housing bubble collapse, we have held that a new bubble (a replacement) would be found.  And now here we have it.

The highest rate EVER will show up in 8-years.

So here’s the dot-connecting:  We are reading that the US GDP is running about $18-trillion – a good thing.  Of course, public debt is higher than that, but let’s set that ugly aside for a minute.

Let’s talk GDP growth:  The data suggests that we are presently accepting nearly 8-million immigrants per decade (corrected).

It doesn’t take a “rocket surgeon” to figure out what this means.

Let me run the numbers for you.

Say you have a country with 320-million of population and this $18-trillion of GDP.  What is the per capita GDP?

Ander:  $56,250 per person.

Now, let’s see what next year looks like with the addition of 3-million immigrants and a 2% growth in GDP:

The GDP increases to $18.36 trillion. The politicians will be coming out of the woodwork to celebrate this data, taking bows, and so on.

But the REALITY is that we will have about about 3-million per year more people annual and increasing from there.  So instead of 320-million we will bounce up to 323-million.

Care to see what happens to GDP?

Well, try $56,842. 

In other words, your share of the pie will get smaller. GDP might go up 2% but per capita will go up only 1%.  I don’t suppose you can figure what will happen to your lifestyle?  D’oh….

Obviously, if GDP growth falls below immigration rates, per capita GPD falls.  Seems to be where we’re heading.

You can see the set-up for this in the per capita income chart over here.

Not that immigration is bad.  BUT wed have to be honest with ourselves:  If the best we can do to grow the American pie is 2% – and that’s using some tricky accounting which includes swelling the M1 and M2 to hugely bloated levels – why would anyone in their right mind be promoting still MORE immigration?

Well, sadly, we see the handwriting on the wall, here.

While the crowd of nominally republican dimwits are falling all over themselves to happy-up on immigration, a poll out shows that they should stop trying to do the political correctness dance and get back on core issues.  Like does America have a border and the sense to control it?

Bloomberg’s view over here is a similar assessment.

Meantime, Obama minions are out in force trying to calm fears in places like Phoenix that expect another major surge in illegals and children in particular this summer.  Essentially, they are saying “Nothing to worry about.”

But you know how our thought processes work:  When government says don’t worry, you should do what?

Or, at least run the numbers.  Please.

The OTHER Immigration Issue – Exopolitics, Greada

Movie is the message, right?  So here comes a former Canadian Defense minister saying the government is  allowing aliens to walk among us.

Disclosure?  That will never happen because as we all know, president Eisenhower signed the Greada Treaty in 1954, which allows the greys harvesting and such in return for tech.  They haven’t been forthcoming, but other races from space warned us about the greys being crooked and….oh, not up on your real history?

Tisk, tisk.  Back to that last link. 

It’s all a cosmic joke where we’ve screw up not only the southern border, but the one overhead so badly that no one can move on disclosure being it would demonstrate how stupid humanoid bipeds are…

As below, so above?

Giddy Markets

Another day of gains yesterday, but a weaker opening may come this morning.

Iranian warships on a resupply to Houthi rebels in Yemen is about to go hot and that supposed Saudi cease-fire turned out to be a joke. 

Buying the Clintons

I don’t suppose you read the NY Times story about money flowing into the Clinton Foundation while the check-writing Russians were trying to gobble up a uranium mining company?

A deal that included minions of SOWWDS sitting in on the decision-making as representatives of the State Department, notes the WSJ.

And what’s this?  The Clinton charities are refiling their tax returns.

Still, SOWWDS will be the next president unless the GOP finds a way to work Carly into the mix.  Otherwise, the gender card will be played like the race card.  And you know how dangerous card games are?

But republicans ain’t exactly the smartest group in the world.  Hell, they once believed in small central government and a balanced budget. 

Comments

Lifestyle Collapse 101–A Dot-Connecting Lesson — 21 Comments

  1. I’m getting bored trying to get you to redo your basic arithmetic, and really don’t care to help you disprove the propaganda source (CIS) “statistics” on immigrant costs (or was it something your proctologist found?).

    But one more time, because the laws of mathematics should not be broken without at least getting cited with a warning:

    8 million in ten years is 800,000 per year, NOT 3 million per year. Start over. You’re just plain wrong. If you want to worry about falling living standards, look to the TPP and the internet outsourcing “knowledge” jobs. Not immigrants.

    • Here’s the thing: If you insist on me redoing the math on immigration, I will still come up with a run-rate of about 1.5 -1.7 million per year. First because in 2013, the number of green cards issued was in excess of 990,000 (I round to a million being lazy). Then I see where in a six month period of 2014, the Obama administration brought in nearly 300,000 illegals (source: NY Times here http://dailycaller.com/2014/07/05/border-meltdown-obama-delivering-290000-illegals-to-u-s-homes/)
      OK, it may not be 3-million per year (yet…give it time…after all the extra-legal border crossing is still being encouraged by this admin.
      The problem is that if you insist on getting out the calculator, I will attack the GDP assumption I use which was wildly optimistic. It is based on wild inflation of the money supply amidst a falling interest rate environment (deflation). Whether there has been any ACTUAL increase in GDP then is called into question.
      How about we agree to disagree? I will use the NY Times Anecdotal reports, and if you agree to that, I won’t rip the fairytale of gdp GROWTH to shreds.
      Sound fair?
      Besides, the border onslaught is not ending – it’s only getting worse. and the Federal laws about crossing at a border or being subject to deportation etc. are being blatantly ignored by executive fiat.
      I insist that under 8 U.S. Code § 1324 – Bringing in and harboring certain aliens, if the President was not shielded by his attorney general, he would be guilty of violation this:
      ) Any person who—
      (i) knowing that a person is an alien, brings to or attempts to bring to the United States in any manner whatsoever such person at a place other than a designated port of entry or place other than as designated by the Commissioner, regardless of whether such alien has received prior official authorization to come to, enter, or reside in the United States and regardless of any future official action which may be taken with respect to such alien;

      (ii) knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that an alien has come to, entered, or remains in the United States in violation of law, transports, or moves or attempts to transport or move such alien within the United States by means of transportation or otherwise, in furtherance of such violation of law;

      (iii) knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that an alien has come to, entered, or remains in the United States in violation of law, conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, such alien in any place, including any building or any means of transportation;

      (iv) encourages or induces an alien to come to, enter, or reside in the United States, knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that such coming to, entry, or residence is or will be in violation of law; or

      (v)
      (I) engages in any conspiracy to commit any of the preceding acts, or

      (II) aids or abets the commission of any of the preceding acts,

      shall be punished as provided in subparagraph (B).

      (B) A person who violates subparagraph (A) shall, for each alien in respect to whom such a violation occurs—
      (i) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i) or (v)(I) or in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), or (iv) in which the offense was done for the purpose of commercial advantage or private financial gain, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 10 years, or both;

      (ii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), (iv), or (v)(II), be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both;

      (iii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) during and in relation to which the person causes serious bodily injury (as defined in section 1365 of title 18) to, or places in jeopardy the life of, any person, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both; and

      (iv) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) resulting in the death of any person, be punished by death or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, fined under title 18, or both.
      Want to talk about deaths along the border?
      But, as I said, the administration is “above the law” isn’t it?

  2. From your corrected story:

    “because of a Washington Examiner story that says in 8-years, the number of legal plus illegal immigrants coming to the USA will be running 50-million per decade.”

    Still wrong.

    Regarding your point about GDP growth vs. population growth, I guess I’m supposed to be worried about my share of the pie shrinking. If I’m only looking at my own situation, I tend to cheer every time someone under the age of 45 enters the country and the workforce. For one thing, they are about to start contributing more than 15% of their income to support Medicare and Social Security for the next 20+ years. And if they die or leave before they hit 65, that’s all gravy for us older Americans.

    Contrast that with the domestic GDP “growth” that you count as per-capita economy that should be protected, presumably to benefit current citizens — how much of that is sales by multinational corps that trap all their income overseas so no tax is paid? And how much more of that growth is channeled into investment earnings that don’t support Medicare or Social Security?

    Those new immigrants? My guess is that a huge proportion of their income is paying payroll taxes, and then a huge proportion of what is left is paying sales taxes.

    • Ah..back to the point, then.
      OK, I will concede that the lower income migrants will be paying into social security and medicare.
      BUT I would point out, they are also the largest consumers of a) emergency services and b) healthcare (outside of seniors) this is the most expensive cohort and they come with a host of higher costs (ESL programs, dual language and such).
      On the other hand, if you look at the growth problem as a “quality of earnings issue” you have to admit that a rich capitalist may not need as much law enforcement, healthcare, prison services, rehab, except for the Madoff types.
      So back to the point that Expat Bruce made – and it’s what my intent was this morning in pointing out the ever-increasing immigrant flow into the US:
      “This financial reset will be over when the wages of the average American is equal to the wages of the average Chinese worker. ”
      This is a sorrowful and real part of the immigration blindness being led by well-intended people in denial about the actual cost/benefits of such immigration.
      That said, it will swell the ranks of government since we will need MORE healthcare, prison guards (profit model there, huh?) etc.
      I just don’t see a win in this and I’m sorry but(*!): if someone comes in and contributes a dollar of taxes while the next three people in consume five dollars a services, it’s NOT a quality of earnings equation.
      (this is turning into a very good discussion…)

    • I KNOW YOU GEORGE ARE ONE OF THE BRIghtest people on the internet and in real lifE BUT FORGET forget 3-10 billion people living on this planet , what i am about to tell you will blow your viewers mind away ,but not yours because you were on a sailboat for 10 years but not all alone and not on a deserted island,. now imagine go ahead dream a little if you will let all that you know about economics fade away into the —————now are you ready to think from the perspective of you and her as on the blue lagoon ,…no money ,,now lets start this lesson of learning we will call this 2015 not jan but april 23, are we ready to rip back the knowledge we have accummulated

  3. The USA used to accept aliens into the country who had specialized skills that were needed by the economy. Very few others were accepted on immigrant visas. Every other country in the world operates on this principle, and in most countries, you would be shot trying to cross a border illegally.

    Most countries accept the 1% of the best and brightest from their home countries. China will ONLY accept English teachers, businesspeople and sometimes stars in their field. They have no need even for scientists, engineers, MDs, or anyone else since they have their own people with these skills.

    Our approach is to fill our country with the dregs of the world and expect them to adapt and lead the economy. This is beyond delusional, it’s psychotic.

  4. crossing the tees and dotting the eyes – Was surprised you had no mention of the highly entertaining senate finance committee meeting held last evening about the tee pee aye (giddy markets indeed!). no, not the tee pee pee or tee tee eye pee. the tee pee authority bill sets the ground rules for any subsequent astro glide treaties. It was kabuki theatre at it’s finest. I’m not sure which I enjoyed most; the doddering hatch (what would he do without a human prompter), the lone tea lover who seemed to go off script, or the musical chairs dems. The bill should be on the senate floor today & I think you could count on 1 hand the amount of non-trough gorging murcans that know this is happening.

  5. George, have you seen any data on total cash sent by immigrants out to their home countries? I have not, but I am told locally that most, if not all, immigrant families do try to send some cash back home. If one tabulates US per capita income, but a significant portion of that “per capita” is merely a way station in a pipeline of cash sent on the way to becoming the “per capita” income outside the US, then 1)the cash amount actually available to offset debt is less; and 2) perhaps, the reason that all the dollars that are being printed have had a less than expected effect on current inflation is that a significant portion of those dollars are not being spent in the US? Just wondering.

  6. Nope. Still wrong.

    CIS may have concluded that it is “per decade” to get people revved up, but the Census Bureau reports it as total foreign born. No time window. Just alive, here, and not native born. Includes students and visitor visa numbers, by the way, because that’s how the census works.

    • Census is not the only data point. For example, take Homeland Security data here http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2013.pdf and lawful immigration is likely running 1.5 m per year, just on the legal side. Counted the kids and illegals yet>?
      Less disputable is that the illegal population in the US (pre-surge) was 11-million.
      Back to point: As drug cartels (remember them, the DEA party funders?) grow in influence, more people will head north. When you couple surge with existing immigration growth, you get to rates that will surpass GPD growth and that will decline per capita income.

  7. Sorry, George, but your arithmetic is just plain wrong:

    “But the REALITY is that we will have about 45-million more people in the country a year from now. So instead of 323-million we will bounce up to 365-million.”

    When you take an estimated total (accrued over decades) and translate that into a single year’s change, you’ve committed a gross arithmetic error.

    • I would have posted the correction earlier, but had a server issu locking out (care to guess?)
      The reference to per year are updated now to per decade
      The 10-year rate is about 8-million plus – the numbers in the CIS data don’t appear to have been adjusted for the kid movements.
      My point was – and continues to be – that any time immigration rates exceed growth of GDP…which was and remains the key point

  8. ” The data suggests that we are presently accepting more than 40-million immigrants per year.”

    So I guess that statement was a typo.

    • correct – brain thinking decade fingers typing year.
      Ain’t supposed to happen with free trade coffee…

  9. “Or, at least run the numbers. Please.”

    Stick to a more reliable source than CIS, like Alex Jones. The assertion that the US will have 45 million more immigrants in one year is just plain stupid. Worse, even, than your projection of a million ebola deaths by the end of last year.

    But hey, these are the guys who put out “studies” saying illegal immigrants commit ten times as many murders and rapes in America as there are murders and rapes, and gullible bias-confirming “journalists” lapped up their transparent bigot-baiting then, too.

    • No, if you read the chart it is immigrations in a given period, like 10-years. So the chart shows 7.9 million more between 2010 and 2020, for example. Look at the chart and park the bias, please.
      If you don’t like the numbers, sorry can’t help you there.
      My point is per capita GDP has likely already peaked.