The specifics of the oddities going on in ‘Merica right now have become so widespread and pervasive that I’ve put on a most unusual trade in my personal account as of Thursday. And by way of explanation, there is a special Peoplenomics report out this morning because this one wouldn’t wait for Saturday. Subscribers can read it here. And, if you’re not a subscriber ($20 for five months or $40 for a whole year) you can sign up over here.
The last time I had such an intense sense about markets was 1987 and I put on an options trade the week before the mini-crash then (UAL puts, as I recall) and did just fine. I am so moved again.
Crazy, Bumping Through Change
Although the stock market was looking to bounce up 24-points earlier, I’m skeptical that gains will hold through to the middle of next week.
For one thing, we had that ultra-high profile police chase and killing of the woman in the nation’s capitol Thursday. An unarmed woman at that. Any chance of a police state over-reaction here? You might ask Alex Jones of Infowars about that. It’s taken a while, but with the CBS DC bureau now headlining “Why did Capitol Hill Police Open Fire“?” the story may cross the great divide between new and old media.
Oh, and conspiracy theorists will find the killing all too convenient since the woman involved seemed to believe she was being stalked by president Obama… There went a line of inquiry, will come the conspiracists rap, sure as the sun coming up.
But that doesn’t quite qualify for a fulfillment on the mass murder cycle of 148-days (+/- 2) that we’ve been tracking. The center of that probability band comes along Monday.
Not to be a nutter, but this has been a fairly repeatable cycle and one that definitely has my attention.
One thought on the Thursday chase is that it is a signal or kindling event, with more to follow by late this weekend.
Then there’s ongoing trouble signing up for Obamacare by calling in to their phone number 1-800-318-2596 which works out to 1-800 F(1)UCKYOU. thanks to the flood of readers who send me the number and yes, it does remind us of the old saying about how “the movie is the message” or, in this case, perhaps the phone number.
But Beyond These Items…
We have and increasing level of polarization developing around the budget impasse and government shutdown, which will really begin to bite into the ‘Merican employment picture next week as government contractors begin to furlough hundreds of thousands of people because “ain’t no dough…”
As evidence of the intransigence, we can see headlines on the right like “The Tea Party Patriots blew away expectations at last night’s tele-townhall on the Continuing Resolution with 104,000 participants for Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK).”
On the other side of the aisle, the lingo was just as passionate and emo-laden with Harry Reid saying “…Boehner’s job is not as important as our country…” and the White House defending use of the “gun to the head” emo-lingo to whip up folks.
Despite the hype (both side of the aisle) the basic functions of government continue: Customs, FAA (including air traffic control) and TSA is still inspecting and the FBI is still chasing federal criminals and such.
Taken as a whole, these data points give us an outline of a country which is in an extremely vulnerable economic position. And that’s what’s covered in this morning’s special (one day earlier than normal) Peoplenomics post.
A simple reduction of the headlines to practicum (hands on, what to do) offers than now may not yet be the time to be moving out of bonds into higher yield investment opportunities and that the nation may have another round of serious downside to go, and indeed it could be even worse than the housing bubble collapse of 2007- 2009.
This would be consistent with long wave economics, which posits that the 1961-62 period was the modern echo of the Great Depression, which really began with a series of four panics prior to 1929, as we recently discussed with subscribers.
As anyone can see, the midpoint of these would be 1911.25 (the beginning of Q2 1911) and when we add 50.8 years to that, we come to 1962.
Toss in another 50.8 years and we come to Q4 of 2012 which is when the crap should all have started hitting the fan.
However, it is here, as we all know, that the Federal Reserve began history’s biggest-ever print-through effort through quantitative easings, because I’m certain in the back rooms of the Fed, they can read the data even better than Ure’s truly.
Students of history will remember that in 1917 (in the 1900’s panic series) we experienced the Russian Revolution. One is struck by the possibility – when reviewing the data – that revolutions tend to occur just after the midpoint of a Kondratiev Wave series of market breaks.
Thus, we would count the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Chinese (Cultural Revolution), and the currently evolving Muslim Revolution [labeled Arab Spring, but likely to evolve a new strong personality figure to lead a transnational move] as highly probable any time now, but before five years have passed].
We know who Lenin was, and the same for Chairman Mao. The open question is who will the Muslim analog be, and what relationships will the West attempt this time around to co-opt, or to invest in future relations? We can’t see it all yet, but it should be coming into focus in future headlines.
But for now, from a pragmatic standpoint, as the Peoplenomics special report this morning notes – capital preservation is critical.
Why Gold Dropped
A good analysis of the latest $40 nosebleed and instant recovery can be found over at Blanchard Online if you’re still wondering how/why that happened.
Madison Ave. Mike points out the King World News report that China’s going to pile up another 5,000 tons of the yellow dog, which may put something of a floor under prices. Either that (or my bet here) the Chinese know deflation is really digging in and they plan to buy at the bottom, bad news for short term gold bugs but long term it should work out.
More after this…
BLS: Missing Data
What will be interesting to watch this morning is how the market deals with the lack of data from BLS this morning with the scheduled release of the monthly employment situation report buggered up by shutdown (politics).
Holding data hostage is poor form on the administration’s part, if you ask me.
We’re left to ponder Time Magazine’s “Forget Unemployment, time to worry about mal-employment” report.
I’ve said for years that if a student goes to school and majors in something based on government job projections that if the jobs aren’t there when the student graduates, government ought to eat the failed student loan payments, but no one seems to follow this simple logic to it’s logical conclusion: class action in court.
Weekly Worry Wart Watch
Oh, where to begin? How about with the report that Bank CEO’s warn of serious risks if the U.S. defaults? Yes, there would be serious risks, alright.
A couple of pills oughta get us through that one. So what’s next?
Well, how about this “Yellowstone Supervolcano Alert”?
Not big enough? Well, here’s one just between you and me: Comet ISON has turned into something of a turkey as it heads toward the sun. But let’s suppose for a moment that the reason is it is turning to water and breaking up – and that as it gets close it could explode sending debris toward guess where?
Somewhere in this collection of items is sure to be something of interest to “the Sky is falling!” crowd. If not, check the headlines later on today, there’s bound to be something in there.
Longer terms, there’s lot to worry about including new Congressional Budget Office numbers that scream higher taxes to come in order to fund Social Security…
A $13,000 Picnic Solar Picnic Table
I’m not sure if this happened in Idaho or Idiot-ho. The KTVB report is good, but if I were a struggling student, I’d be pissed about spending money on this kind of thing. Seems someone in their business school could maybe do a paper on carbon footprint versus economic reality?
Ruling By Intimidation
Worth a read: “Former DHS Chief Privacy Officer Recounts How She Was Regularly Called A ‘Terrorist’ By The Intelligence Community…” over at TechDirt.
Secret Sauce in Processor Land
Although there’s a 30second commercial on the front-end, there’s a really neat story about Susan Bennett, who CNN reports is the voice of Siri, the onboard voice of many electronic devices including the new Apple iPhones.
And, as long as we’re peeking under the hood of things digital, “Why did Apple buy Cue? Because Google Now easts Siri’s Lunch” explains TechCrunch.
And I trust you caught the Forbes bit on turning off Siri to prevent security leaks?