Janet’s Map of the Future

It was more of the same this weekend:  The major money center banks of the world and the monetary policy folks getting together at Jackson Hole Wyoming.  A fitting place where the world Hole figured prominently has to be one of the finest winks out there from Universe.

That aside – and while the banks were floating ideas like having monetary authorities buy up bonds (to put their interest rates up)…the real useful (and dare I say actionable) part of the Monetary Symposium was the speech and this roadmap present by Fed head Janet Yellen:

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As any Fool can see,, the divergence into the future is nothing short of remarkable.  Worse, if the actual interest rates follow along the lower edge of this ranging forecast, a lot of terrible thing begin to happen.

Terribly did I say?  Let me give you  a little taste:

  • Insurance companies could begin to blow up.  That’s because they typically have invested in real estate (large commercial buildings and such) and in case you have missed it, there is a major decline underway in the amount of Class A space really needed to house our hollowed-out economy.
  • Not only do insurance companies face the long-term real estate problem, but they could have large outflows coming along at a time when they would be hard-pressed to make ends meet.  A big natural disaster or major gray-killer (mutant vir4us of some kind) could bring settlement demands on Life policies.
  • Then there are the money-center banks.  While we still hold there is a 50-75% chance of a blow-off top in stocks to come (since hot money has to go somewhere and Europe and Asia aren’t it), the money center boyz don’t really add much in the way of value.  With interest rates depressed (and you notice where the new factories are being built *not here in the USA!) the money center banks have run off to their old (very bad) habit of trying to make enough money to keep Empires afloat by playing craps…no make that derivatives.  The economic problems of America started when interstate banking was re-allowed and it’s something of a no-no to mention that fact.
  • Since money center banks have big customers, they are called SIFIs – Strategically Important Financial Institutions.  These institutions claim Too Big To Fail (TBTF) status and no one to date has been willing to call their bluff.

Now against this background, let’s see how the Fed is trying to cope:  They are printing huge amounts of money – some of which is leaking into the banking system.

How much is :huge amounts?”  Let’s look at the present print rate as disclosed in the Fed H.6 Money Stocks report:

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If you have had enough coffee, you might be wondering “Gee, with M2 going up 7.5^ an annualized, where is the inflation?  I mean prices are only up 2% or so…

And the right question that would be.  The FACT is that the Fed is making up money because we are already  in a periodical long wave economic depression.

It just doesn’t show unless you know where to look.

So let’s do that:  What are some of the B IG SIGNS  that we are already in a Greater Depression and are just too dumb to admit it to ourselves yet?

  • Secular Politics:  The election this year casts Donald Trump as Herbert Hoover.  And on the born-again Socialist side, Hillary Clinton is working toward being the modern analog to Roosevelt.
  • Long Term Monetary Collapse, Bond Bubble.  Go ahead, look at the long term chart of the 10-year bond if you doubt me.  We have been in falling rates since the mid 1980’s…so half of an extended economic long wave  more than 30-years now.
  • Collapse of Inflation Expectations.  Gold and silver should be at record highs.  But they are not simply because expectations of future inflation are so low.
  • Concentration of Power in the SIFIs.  There will likely come a bail-in where all US savers with more than XXX dollars will have a portion of it impounded to pay down the national debt.  That’s because when the government has to pay real rates again (something over 3% which is still absurdly low by historical levels) we will be screwed into bankruptcy.
  • The Modern Civilian Conservation Corps is still unrecognized.  That’s the AmeriCorps side of National Community Service.  It doesn’t pay a lot, but it does give people some income and does a bit of good in local communities.  The parallels to the Civilian Conservation Corps of the 1930’s or the parallel Works Progress Administration (WPA) is remarkable.  Government doesn’t make a big deal about these programs today because it’s another tip-off we’re in a Depression that the Fed is desperately trying to “paper our way through.”
  • Job Sharing Is Here:  Again, people are not connecting the dots with this Great Depression phenomena.  But it was true back then that there wasn’t enough work to go around.  So lots of 40 hour jobs were turned into 20-hour gigs.  Fast forward to this morning and we are reading how Amazon is testing the 30-hour work week for some of its tech staff.  Under emphasized in most reports:  Amazon has 60,000+ robots picking stock and such. But the robots are coming and they will blow up the economy.

So how’s the papering-over doing?

OMFG…horribly.  Let’s look at the Velocity of Money at M2 to find out, shall we?  Think of this the same way you would look at inventory turnover in a manufacturing company. 

Turning inventory 10 times a year would be great.  Turn it less than 3 times a year…and lower, well, then it’s a train wreck.  Hold up the train wreck slide, would’jah?

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Rut-roo Scooby. 

So that’s what we are waking up to this morning.

But it is not all bad news… in fact, I MAY have figured out the one place that would be bail-in resistant for when the time comes.  More research to do, though, but if it comes together, it will be in the Wednesday Peoplenomics.com report.

We now return you to the regularly scheduler morning drivel flow with the remi8nder from the late Marty Zweig “:Never fight the Fed!”  Amen, Mary…sleep well.

If you haven’t read Martin Zweig’s winning on Wall Street your financial education has a big hole in it.

Problem is that these days it’s easier to whine about things than figure out the game and go make some money.

Mylan is Still Wrong

When I read how Mylan to Launch Generic Version of EpiPen for $300 I think to myself this is a piss-poor response to public outrage and holding people’s health hostage.  Seems to me the cost should be about what EpiPens go for in Canada or the third world.  One the order of under $100.

This is Mylan pouring Astoglide on consumers.

Marketing 602 Class Problem:  Pretend you are Mylan.  What is the maximum price reduction needed to “sell” to the FDA and congressional types and still keep very good margins on the product?

Especially since Mylan has already bought the key deciders.

Oh, really?  You don’t think they are bought?

Senators probing EpiPen received donations from Mylan PAC.  Duh.

Yes, as Pogo might have put it:  :We is haplessly f*cked when we can’t tell the Truth, most especially to ourselfs.” 

NEWS FLASH:  A political contribution is just a bribe with its clothes on.  WhoTF doesn’t get this?

But you see, it will get Mylan off the Hook and Hillary into the Oval Office.   We are soooo stoopid…Let me make you some fluoridated coffee…

Another Obama Lie

The US will never give up stewardship of the Internet.  Promised you-know-who.

Remember that one?  LOL.

Add it to the scrap pile of President Useless which includes a Peace Prize (ask Syria about that one), Choose Your Own Doctor and…oh, you know the list.  Too long for this morning…

How much more damage c an he do between now and January?

Even the Wall Street Journal is calling it an “Internet Giveaway to the U.N.”

Say, what happened to protect America from all enemies foreign and domestic, huh?

Huma-iliation II

See the NY Post for this one: “Anthony Weiner sexted busty brunette while his son was in bed with him.”

Meantime, we keep asking where are Huma’s and Cheryl Mills tax returns?    Where are the med records?

Speaking of “Ill-ary”/Obama camp seems to be a Former Obama aide calls Trump a ‘psychopath’.

Apparently, anyone with lots of money (or more than me)  must be a psychopath?  Not that I doubt it, mind you.  Why just look at that other George fellow…psychopath there, fo sho’…

March of Domestic Terrorism

When is anyone going to call out Black Lives Matter as a domestic terrorism group?  When I read Black Lives Matter Vows to Destroy the “Nuclear Family” I gotta ask where is the Department of Just Us and the Lynch Mob?

Raising ‘Cane

From the Nat. Wx Svc: The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the North Carolina coast. NHC is also monitoring Tropical Depression 9, which is entering the Gulf of Mexico. Read More >

(That pop-up storm here at the ranch yesterday had nothing to do with my experiments in the lab…honest!  Timing was coincidental!)

Fairytale Monday

Personal Income and Expense (rewritten from Grimm):

Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $60.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.0 billion (0.3 percent).

But what about Personal Savings?

Personal outlays increased $41.6 billion in July. Personal saving was $794.7 billion in July and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.7 percent.

Where…

`Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

And…

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

But every time I try to tie back the numbers to something that balances, it blows up.  So either I’m no good at math or the numbers are….naw, must be my math skills.

Meantime, the Futures point to a modest increase at the open.  A fine time to enter a short side trade, I’m thinking…we shall see.

Comments

Janet’s Map of the Future — 35 Comments

    • dont know why, but just checked the link above to make sure it was correct and it isnt for some reason. but i c/p exactly as in the address bar…in any case, just google ‘winning on wall street .pdf’ and youll get the link

  1. If the Web Bot is to be believed, the Hildebeast should be out of the picture by the third week of September. Makes me wonder what her “diazepam pen” bearer is treating.

  2. The best coffee is made from beans roasted within the previous 2 weeks. It will still have the volatile aromatic compounds.

  3. Wasn’t Jackson’s Hole a major hideout for the Wild Bunch back in the day?

  4. George you mention real estate being liquidated in the coming washout (Not only do insurance companies face the long-term real estate problem etc). Following Brexit the UK Gov froze Property Funds, preventing the withdrawal of cash and mass liquidation of real estate in the UK. You also mention Gov seizing cash in various ways. Down under this is already happening where the Queensland ( A state in Australia) Government took (read stole) $4 Billion from the State Employee Super Fund issuing Bonds in its place, then, to add insult to injury, subsequently introduced a no cash out policy to those that saw the light and wanted to cash out of the Fund. This is the future (as I see it) the Gov will steal where it can get it, and sitting ducks like Super and Pension Funds will be forced to hold a percentage of Bonds as a part of their asset portfolio ( this means if your Fund held Gold as an example it would be required to sell part to pay for any mandated percentage of Bonds). I am sure your readers will be aware of what a ‘Bail In’ means, if not better remind them.

  5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj4K9fr_WgY

    Dear George! Boom! Watch what the Wisest Man in England had to say about the Smartest Wharton Man. You might consider placing the link to this speech right next to a link to Hillary’s last Press Conference!

    Overcome or die! Regards to you. Walter

  6. Gotta chuckle at the BLM vow to destroy the nuclear family. Sorry, my brother from another mother, that shipped sailed loooooong ago.

  7. George – couldn’t the falling velocity of money just mean that they’re printing a ton of it? Dollars don’t have to change hands so fast when there is more of it in circulation.

  8. re: no one challenging TBTF. But let’s ignore anything that Warren says because of that Liawatha Fauxahontas thingie.

    “Too Big to Fail has become Too Big for Trial”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mavB1lbtIow
    Elizabeth Warren Grills Ben Bernanke on ‘Too Big to Fail’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7X3uac0lzw
    Senator Elizabeth Warren – Ending “Too Big To Fail”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLMmf3fimok
    Elizabeth Warren – “Too Big To Fail” Means Another Taxpayer Bailout of Wall Street
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j33vjdj3iq0

    • Liawatha was promoted in the MSM to elim her as cred candidate – everything is a business model right

  9. “Now against this background, let’s see how the Fed is trying to cope: They are printing huge amounts of money”

    I stand by my original prediction.. they will continue to dump water on the table to push that noodle as far as they can.. then just before the election or just after.. they will charge interest on this money that they are paying the wealthiest one percent to take what was it a little over a half trillion given to twenty six people because of that wonderful bill the GOP passed.. what was it six people on both sides was all that opposed it.. Hmm….. drying up some of the water.. the new administration will come in and truly see the dire spot we are in.. panic.. and go to war.. since war is where the money has traditionally been.. except this time who they are going to tork off are the very countries where our generous congress has allowed our industry to move the jobs for the people of our nation.. then about four to six months into this.. we will see the real mess unfold.. I give it march till August of next year.. especially since all our political parties are following Adolphs second book almost page by page.. where the wealthy have access to our legislators while the people that vote them in don’t have a chance in hadie’s..
    This same scenario has been following suit in other countries.. ten million in one for a one pound loaf of bread.. three grand for a cup of brewed coffee..
    It will be interesting to watch unfold.. so far it is going as I predicted how many years ago now..

    http://www.newsweek.com/zimbabwes-10-million-bread-84167

    http://www.irinnews.org/feature/2005/09/12/food-crisis-drives-young-women-sell-their-bodies-1

    the list could go on.. now did anyone notice that both russian and china are doing duck and cover drills.. late night bombing sirens etc..Hmm.. could be they see this coming to a head to.. this time though.. we would be very vain to even think it wouldn’t touch our countries.. especially since didn’t our congress sell our port of entries.. and we check what one to five percent of loads entering our country..what about rand pauls stand on we should be concerned about the new club K defense system russia has.. shoot it could be in a storage lot near anyone of us..
    ..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggRGvA5bwWc

    It really doesn’t take a brain scientist to realize these people are not idiots.. they see us catering to the greedy one percent.. sell at drastically reduced prices.. get us to disassemble our manufacturing.. to fulfil the greed of a few.. realizing that with the ones with zika sized minds that the only thing they can think of is more profit.. more profit. more printing.. of what a peace of paper that isn’t backed by anything at all.. well I am done with my rant for the day..
    I just see the stupid congress ( it doesn’t matter who the ceo is..).. and wonder.. what in the hell.. are they that stupid.. will they really push it to the limit.. how many sides is the one percent playing against the middle to get what they want..and what more can they possibly want….

  10. Take the amount of coffee that you’re going to use for that day take the amount of coffee that do going to use for that day put it in a coffee filter and twist the top of it put a close up in on it and stick it in a cup of water and let it sit all night the next morning take that coffee
    it yeah take a switch it around in the cup that next morning and it will be really strong but it won’t be a sit and it’ll have a really fantastic taste that you’ve never had before and of course you can heat it you know after work switch just don’t ball at the mixture that you have then I had all the other ingredients that you usually put in your coffee and I swear you’ll have something different I hope you don’t get hooked on it if you do you’ll never ball coffee again

    • Looks like the Google translator messed up on this one.

      And George … about your own language (colorful? LOL)… tsk tsk. I’m beginning to think you are loosing your verbal skills.

  11. It’s all about the reward system , hence your business model, weather that’s a third grader who’s learning or whether it’s The Illuminati’s Elite or rulers of the Illuminati it’s all about the reward system do you reward or get rewarded for doing evil things or do you get rewarded for doing good deeds and that helps the community expand Humanity in the direction that you have envisioned, remember that saying that I’m stuck on, May all beings be lovingly fulfilled, SO BE IT ,

    • if you take your coffee and soak it in water overnight it doesn’t have the ethnicity in it and if you’ve ever tried it it’s really fantastic it feels good taste good

      • Any comments about coffee are welcome here – I’ve tried them all: French press, drip, Starbux, Keurig, and so far the best I can remember is Folgers in the old days in a stainless percolator with Seattle water in the spring…

      • Have you tried the cold method where you let it sit in the filter all night and swish it around in the morning and then heat it up it is so fantastic so much flavor I swear

      • the secret is after soaking it all night then heat it up but don’t boil it if you boil it ,it will bring out the acid and give you acid reflux ,by all night soaking you will be rewarded with flavor that will be super rich ,but superbly smooth at the same time

      • Excuse me Sir, but coffee from different ethnic areas of the world tastes differently (and should be left that way). Roasting, water temp & purity, and the 3 minute drip are the real factors…

        Please proofread or one is inclined to think you are hinting at something more sinister with that ethnicity cleanse comment.

  12. Reportedly, Mylan’s CEO raised her own salary over 600%.

    So, the next time someone dies from an allergic reaction because they can’t afford the (outrageous) price of an Epi-Pen, will the CEO be forced to pay damages — or — better yet — be brought up on charges?

    Just wondering.

  13. I wouldn’t get too ‘hyper’ about medical records – while Clinton ‘may have had’ various ills connected with being almost seventy, that letter that Trump’s friendly gastro doc friend wrote doesn’t past the ‘smell test’. There have been a number of instances of rich people getting remarkably poor medical care (whereas you would think the opposite would be true – think Michael Jackson or Prince – Crappy doctors glom onto them – quackery!).

    Just looking at Trump’s doctor does not give confidence. He needs an ‘outside opinion’!

    • Most of the time, your best doctor can be found in the bathroom mirror. You’re fully capable of feeling, measuring, researching and otherwise investigating your own health from the inside. You can change your environment and get immediate feedback on the effects. You don’t rely on interpretations once or twice removed, given by overpaid, distracted and overworked “perfessionals”. You have no ego to protect regarding your own health.

      Get educated, get smart, and get to work becoming your own health care provider. Employ consultants that you can work with to cover any gaps or specialty tests or therapy. Find ways to avoid regulated substances, or employ a cooperative authorized agent to provide them.

      In short, never trust a system that doesn’t have it’s financial health aligned with yours!

  14. Generally speaking, would mutual funds be exempt from bail-ins? As an alternative to a bank account, let’s say a low risk, low return short/ultra-short term bond type fund, holding 1/3 cash/money market, 1/3 high grade corporate bonds, 1/3 treasury bonds. All within less than a year to maturity, on average 3 months.