Inflation? What Inflation?

The market has had a couple of great days leading into the CIP report this morning, so let’s ruin breakfast with that one, first if you went short.  (Here, let me turn on your camera on your computer…aha! You could skip a meal, or two…)

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The all items index posted its smallest seasonally adjusted increase since February; the indexes for shelter and food rose, but were partially offset by declines in the energy index and the index for airline fares.

The food index rose 0.4 percent in July, with the food at home index also rising 0.4 percent after being unchanged in June. The decrease in the energy index was its first since March and featured declines in the indexes of all the major energy components.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, new vehicles, personal care, and apparel all increased in July. Along with the index for airline fares, the indexes for recreation, for used cars and trucks, for household furnishings and operations, and for tobacco all declined in July. T

he all items index increased 2.0 percent over the last 12 months, a slight decline from the 2.1 percent figure for the 12 months ending June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as for the 12 months ending June. The energy index has increased 2.6 percent, and the food index has risen 2.5 percent over the span.

The only thing in the whole index that has really gone down is energy and oil.  If those were to go up 5% in the next year or so, we’d be royally (go ahead, guess the next word.  Begins with an F, if that helps…)

This level of inflation is NOT the end of the world.  If it was, the price of gold would be double what it is, and so would the price of silver.  The Housing Market would be in recovery and the sound of p[peace and joy would be wringing through the land (except in Ferguson, perhaps).

That Wall of Worry Thing

We still have several days to run until we get to the average annual market high date (August 26) that I’ve been beating into your head lately (with little effect).

Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service sent out a ballsy advisory this morning, noting a cople of Presto advisories about the earth’s geomagnetic disturbances.  If this indicagtor works out, we should see some selling develop over the next couple of days, so if it happens will have to give him (another) green star.

If not, it may simply mean that key date bullishness in the market may be a more powerful force than otherwise thought. 

I keep working on this problem for an artificial intelligence approach to markets that would be based on this kind of thinking:  It might be derived using rule-learning AI software, but on a morning like this the logic implications might be something like:

  • Key inflation data came out this morning
  • Geomagnetic disturbances likely tomorrow or next deay
  • NASDAQ just set a high

…and so forth.

Which would then be used as rule-deriving data points:

  • If inflation data is within range x
  • And geomagnetism is set to variable y
  • And HASDAQ is at high z

…then market outcome today will; be ______

If you get enough of these, with smart enough software, you might be able to make some serious money in the market. 

Otherwise, stuff it in a mattress, until someone gets wind of it and turns you in to Homeland Security as a potential terrorist who’s got cash…or maybe you’re a drug dealer.

So then you get the doors broken in, the cash seized, through civil asset forfeiture, the feds share some of the dough with the locals who in turn buy more tanks and armored personnel carriers and we all go to Ferguson.

Did I leave anything out?  No? 

More after this…

                

(Or, you’re not a criminal, we’re just taking your money because we can, dept.)

Housing Number Blow-Out

Wow!  Talk about a rebound in housing – this just out from Census this morning:

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,052,000. This is 8.1
percent (±1.8%) above the revised June rate of 973,000 and is 7.7 percent (±1.8%) above the July 2013 estimate of 977,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 640,000; this is 0.9 percent (±1.5%)* above the revised June figure of 634,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 382,000 in July.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,093,000. This is 15.7 percent (±10.9%) above the
revised June estimate of 945,000 and is 21.7 percent (±10.7%) above the July 2013 rate of 898,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 656,000; this is 8.3 percent (±10.3%)* above the revised June figure of 606,000.
The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 423,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 841,000. This is 3.7 percent (±8.2%)* above
the revised June estimate of 811,000 and is 8.0 percent (±9.9%)* above the July 2013 rate of 779,000
.
Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 635,000; this is 6.2 percent (±8.8%)* above the revised June rate of 598,000.
The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 199,000.

On to new highs shortly?

Spot the Revolutionary – Home Edition

A day ago, I was wondering aloud what the deal was with the MSM in publicizing the people who are trying to make the tragic events in Ferguson into something more than it is.

Sure enough, we are seeing hints in the Washington Post this morning that out of state people are now headed to Ferguson to take part in the protests.

If you’re looking for American Revolution II, I hardly think it’s going to be in the St. Louis area…but as I explained, the revolutionaries are the ones that seize on a legit grievance and then add-on additional bitch points (as the Bolsheviks did) until they get to critical 4-5% of the population going and then get a revolution.

To be sure, America has some serious bitch-notes to be addressed, but don’t hold your breath… I’m pretty sure than any “new government” that would arise in today’s world would be just about as screwed up as what we have, which is why I’m still on the campaign involvement, grassroots politics side of things.

Besides, haven’t the out of staters noticed this morning’s book collection above?  Am I the only one who has noticed the growing power of government thanks to the internet?  On e facial recognition swipe at a riot and oh, my…worse than a no fly list, I suspect.

I’m guessing that the protests and tear gas will last another week or two, as there are increasing reports that the officer’s version of events up there may be what happened.

If You Want Something to Worry About…

My buddy, Oilman2 (the prince of dry holes lately, lol) has been worrying a lot about the odds of a major volcano popping off somewhere.

Ah…try this one on for size, he suggests.

Now you’ve got another one to add to your prepping list:  3-dozen air filters for the car and 20-cases of N-100 masks.

Seriously, on our trip across American over the past week, we were starkly reminded in lots of places that most of America was under water at one point.  Elaine would point at various sand formations and ask things like “Think that was a sand bar half a million years ago?

You look at the diagonal vertical up-thrusts along I-80 in Wyoming (possibly the most boring state in the Union) and you wonder what that would be like in modern times.   Kind of a “So, that’s where Atlantis went…” moment.

Then you go on to wondering if they had student loans and auto rebate programs and you can pass a lot of highway with those thoughts.  Beef jerky and bottled water?

If We’re Here, That Is…

Because it’s maybe an even match with pandemic disease.  While the World Health Organization is beginning to wonder if the Hot Zone Countries should screen departing travelers,l I have a novel idea:

Don’t bring them  here.

Or, if you disagree, we’ll dump them off at your house. 

Did I mention we have a 2-for one deal this week only?  Get three Ebola patients in your city and we’ll throw in two busloads of illegals and a new tank for your police department?  FMTT

Oh, Wait, There’s a Line….

No, not to FMTT, but to bring war materiel into Ukraine from Russia, which – says this story over here – has already invaded Ukraine…

Not to be too conspiratorial on this, but you don’t suppose that lefty agitators are whipping up Ferguson so the Russian walk into Ukraine get low-beamed, do you?

Crafty fellow, Putsy.  Carefully mediaizing (new word alert) the West while rebuilding the Russian buffer.  But we can’t let him have them or the EU will collapse and then more bailouts…get the SecDef on the line for me, would you?

Jeez, where’s my meds?

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