Sometimes, in order to understand terrible confusing political or business situations, the best and easiest tool at hand is a cocktail napkin. For those of don’t go our cocktailing and choose to have a libation at home, napkins are in short supply.
So we revert to software for our purpose of sketching out where immigration is as a process map. Remember, from the Millennial’s Missing Manual – formerly titled “Victims of Process” we begin each inquiry by trying to understand and map how events are laying out.
Using this approach, we can see based on our other mapping work (some of which was covered this weekend in our premium Peoplenomics.com report on “Weaponization of Social Media”) we have a pretty good roadmap of what is to be expected as events roll forward.
For one, this morning president Trump is upping the threat level against California for petulance (breaking the laws) with regards to Federal Funding. There is a concurrent effort of the Left to propel California into secession and a re-association with Mexico. The marionette string pullers realize that the GDP of California is $2.448 trillion and the GDP of the entire country of Mexico is a mere $1.144 trillion (World Bank, 2015 data).
In a secession and affiliation, California would basically “rule Mexico” based on economic power, although absent U.S. FedGov involvement, California would likely suffer a major decline in GDP per capita to a midpoint between the US GDP per experienced now to the low levels experienced by Mexico residents.
We could draw up a number of process maps (and show links) involving both the Left/Reconquista which George Soros and his NGO (henchpersons) have been working for years, that has been seeding this interesting alternative to the one discussed some weeks ago (*Peoplenomics, I think) which outlined a strong business case for the U.S. to simply “take-back” the northern half of Mexico which has become a primary source of illegal immigration and drug trafficking, and integrate that area as either a protectorate along the Puerto Rico model, or set out a clear path to Statehood.
With the rabble-rousing in California, however, and growing talk of secession, we can see there would be a kind of “instant Viceroy class” created – namely the Californians who would invest and appropriate property in Nuevo California if I can call it that.
Not to say any of this WILL happen but we can see a number of interesting possibilities out on the horizon, including the background data that reminds us that California has more than 12-million Spanish speakers, but then again, as of 2015, the U.S. had developed more Spanish-speakers than all of Spain!
I like to think of this all in terms of economic business models. While there are plenty of emotional anchors in the immigration debate, we tend to look at behavioral economics more around here.
For example, between 2012 and 2018, the number of jobs teaching ESL in the US increased 14%. So clearly, this is an economic proposition. Should the 10% of “other” speakers in U.S. schools be reduced, employment would have to be found for current teaching staff.
So we get the economic basis of loose immigration, not to mention that once in the U.S. the people who come here do file taxes (at some lower rate than residents, perhaps) and that increases the flow of funds into the Social Security system.
The California succession movement started circulating petitions a week ago, so the problem is far from moot.
What is interesting from an historical standpoint is that the secession issue in the United States has been around a very long time. In some ways, it is a marker of the economic long wave. A secession move by California seems possible in the 2018 timeframe, or roughly three Kondratieff longwave cycles from the 1860 succession mess called the Civil War.
This kind of thing tends to roll in slow-motion, however, so we should still be in a rising market for another month, or longer (March and July are target all-time-high periods). So for now, we sit back, look at things like this process map, and wonder “Gee, what else can go wrong?”
We shouldn’t have too long to wait.
A couple of notes about “climate change” this morning.
First is the latest report from the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression folks. Yes, the Sun is going to sleep:
The second item to bring to your attention is the recent (Obama admin) reports about how the Earth had its hottest year EVER in 2016 may not be as solid as the warmists and changeists would have you believe.
The Deplorable Climate Science Blog over here, makes the point that NOAA mostly made-up data for much of the earth. NOAA to have assumed (imputed) record temps in places there aren’t even thermometers, says another report.
I think I mentioned recently that I’ve been pulling down direct data off the NOAA APT/polar orbit satellites and the thermography imagery uses is “banded.”
In other words, you may see red in one area and yellow in an adjacent area…but within (roughly) 20-degrees color gradients, there’s “enough slippery” to drive a Kenworth through.
The satellite data is then massaged with scattered local data and assumptions are made that enable a lot of reddening of the maps. And that get’s headlines going and here comes the business models on climate out of the closet.
Of course, we have had on our “skeptical helmet” for years on this stuff, but data is data and here’s a UK Daily Mail reports you need to click and read…
Be ready with your “Quick! Looked Surprised!” expressions…
The Robots Are Coming!!!!
If you work in the grocery industry, you need to be aware that Amazon’s supermarket of the future could get by with just three employees, a ton of robots and telecom gear…
Can you picture the fun hackers would have with rearranging stores?
Future’s So Bright….
Stocks are likely to get off to a flat or somewhat down week after the last-minute burst at the end of last week to stay north of 20,000 on the Dow.
We expect this to be a flat to sideways beginning, but then moving up perhaps by Friday.
Gold is up $10 bucks early but on the business docket for the day there’s little excitement.
What we are in, dear reader, is economic stagnation. In fact, Gallup recently pointed out the per capita GDP has only gone up 1% in the US in the last 10 years!
In a world bent on investing in video games instead of human capital, and where investing in machines is a better (and tax-advantaged) move than hiring, we begin the week wondering whether earning $5 a week more is a real payoff for 10-years of work?
Perhaps not – and maybe that’s where some of our “national angst” comes from.
With a light news flow this week, it’s something to thing about as “The harder we work the behinder we get” seems to be rolling into the medium term view.
With it, the leading edge of the Greater Depression isn’t too far behind.