Immigration: The Board Game

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Sometimes, in order to understand terrible confusing political or business situations, the best and easiest tool at hand is a cocktail napkin. For those of don’t go our cocktailing and choose to have a libation at home, napkins are in short supply.

So we revert to software for our purpose of sketching out where immigration is as a process map. Remember, from the Millennial’s Missing Manual – formerly titled “Victims of Process” we begin each inquiry by trying to understand and map how events are laying out.

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Using this approach, we can see based on our other mapping work (some of which was covered this weekend in our premium Peoplenomics.com report on “Weaponization of Social Media”) we have a pretty good roadmap of what is to be expected as events roll forward.

For one, this morning president Trump is upping the threat level against California for petulance (breaking the laws) with regards to Federal Funding. There is a concurrent effort of the Left to propel California into secession and a re-association with Mexico. The marionette string pullers realize that the GDP of California is $2.448 trillion and the GDP of the entire country of Mexico is a mere $1.144 trillion (World Bank, 2015 data).

In a secession and affiliation, California would basically “rule Mexico” based on economic power, although absent U.S. FedGov involvement, California would likely suffer a major decline in GDP per capita to a midpoint between the US GDP per experienced now to the low levels experienced by Mexico residents.

We could draw up a number of process maps (and show links) involving both the Left/Reconquista which George Soros and his NGO (henchpersons) have been working for years, that has been seeding this interesting alternative to the one discussed some weeks ago (*Peoplenomics, I think) which outlined a strong business case for the U.S. to simply “take-back” the northern half of Mexico which has become a primary source of illegal immigration and drug trafficking, and integrate that area as either a protectorate along the Puerto Rico model, or set out a clear path to Statehood.

With the rabble-rousing in California, however, and growing talk of secession, we can see there would be a kind of “instant Viceroy class” created – namely the Californians who would invest and appropriate property in Nuevo California if I can call it that.

Not to say any of this WILL happen but we can see a number of interesting possibilities out on the horizon, including the background data that reminds us that California has more than 12-million Spanish speakers, but then again, as of 2015, the U.S. had developed more Spanish-speakers than all of Spain!

I like to think of this all in terms of economic business models. While there are plenty of emotional anchors in the immigration debate, we tend to look at behavioral economics more around here.

For example, between 2012 and 2018, the number of jobs teaching ESL in the US increased 14%. So clearly, this is an economic proposition. Should the 10% of “other” speakers in U.S. schools be reduced, employment would have to be found for current teaching staff.

So we get the economic basis of loose immigration, not to mention that once in the U.S. the people who come here do file taxes (at some lower rate than residents, perhaps) and that increases the flow of funds into the Social Security system.

The California succession movement started circulating petitions a week ago, so the problem is far from moot.

What is interesting from an historical standpoint is that the secession issue in the United States has been around a very long time. In some ways, it is a marker of the economic long wave. A secession move by California seems possible in the 2018 timeframe, or roughly three Kondratieff longwave cycles from the 1860 succession mess called the Civil War.

This kind of thing tends to roll in slow-motion, however, so we should still be in a rising market for another month, or longer (March and July are target all-time-high periods). So for now, we sit back, look at things like this process map, and wonder “Gee, what else can go wrong?”

We shouldn’t have too long to wait.

Global Cooling

A couple of notes about “climate change” this morning.

First is the latest report from the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression folks. Yes, the Sun is going to sleep:

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The second item to bring to your attention is the recent (Obama admin) reports about how the Earth had its hottest year EVER in 2016 may not be as solid as the warmists and changeists would have you believe.

The Deplorable Climate Science Blog over here, makes the point that NOAA mostly made-up data for much of the earth. NOAA to have assumed (imputed) record temps in places there aren’t even thermometers, says another report.

I think I mentioned recently that I’ve been pulling down direct data off the NOAA APT/polar orbit satellites and the thermography imagery uses is “banded.”

In other words, you may see red in one area and yellow in an adjacent area…but within (roughly) 20-degrees color gradients, there’s “enough slippery” to drive a Kenworth through.

The satellite data is then massaged with scattered local data and assumptions are made that enable a lot of reddening of the maps. And that get’s headlines going and here comes the business models on climate out of the closet.

Of course, we have had on our “skeptical helmet” for years on this stuff, but data is data and here’s a UK Daily Mail reports you need to click and read…

Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data “

Be ready with your “Quick! Looked Surprised!” expressions…

The Robots Are Coming!!!!

If you work in the grocery industry, you need to be aware that Amazon’s supermarket of the future could get by with just three employees, a ton of robots and telecom gear

Can you picture the fun hackers would have with rearranging stores?

Future’s So Bright….

Stocks are likely to get off to a flat or somewhat down week after the last-minute burst at the end of last week to stay north of 20,000 on the Dow.

We expect this to be a flat to sideways beginning, but then moving up perhaps by Friday.

Gold is up $10 bucks early but on the business docket for the day there’s little excitement.

What we are in, dear reader, is economic stagnation. In fact, Gallup recently pointed out the per capita GDP has only gone up 1% in the US in the last 10 years!

In a world bent on investing in video games instead of human capital, and where investing in machines is a better (and tax-advantaged) move than hiring, we begin the week wondering whether earning $5 a week more is a real payoff for 10-years of work?

Perhaps not – and maybe that’s where some of our “national angst” comes from.

With a light news flow this week, it’s something to thing about as “The harder we work the behinder we get” seems to be rolling into the medium term view.

With it, the leading edge of the Greater Depression isn’t too far behind.

Comments

Immigration: The Board Game — 31 Comments

  1. So many tangents to go off on! Consider that for the vast majority of businesses the largest customer base is the middle class. Which is steadily diminishing in the rush for maximium profits through various tactics outsourcing etc. Problem is when the middle class becomes a small minority in the country what then? Have government dictate what, when and from whom you purchase and mandatory purchase amounts like the ACA?
    Robots aren’t themselves consumers, many foreign workers send significant amount of their earnings back home overseas and eventually follow. Eventually the majority of these companies will self destruct by their own policies.

  2. Global warming? Cooling? Who cares it’s always changing and there’s someone that will always try and make a buck or a billion off of it. To this rancher it’s the perfect opportunity to get stuff done when I’d ordinarily be stuck inside. It’s been beautiful the past week or so – and not one danged robot in sight.

    Suspicious0bservers.org had a couple of good articles today about Al Gore’s cash cow:
    https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/nasa-noaa-climate-data-is-fake-data/#comment-39286

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html

  3. Another example of how human organizations have a strong tendency to change into their opposite over time WITHOUT changing their name. It only took conservatives 30 years to go from “Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall!” to “Let’s build a wall!” Remember walls keep people in as well as out.

    • I wonder what the Mexicans on their Southern Border have to say about that. ( psst , talking about building a wall )

      All countries have limits to their compassion.

    • Different walls, different reasons. One wall kept people from accessing freedom. The other protects free people from freeloaders … and rapists, murderers, kidnappers… You know, all the things that go on in Mexico City on a regular basis. It’s bad enough we have our own indigenous people like that. Why import?

  4. Im living in California. I think the rest of the country should strongly agree with California seccession. And yes , build that fence up along the border between California and the US.

    BUT FIRST.

    Seems to me that California has numerous assets called Federal property. Sharpen the pencils and provide California with a nice little bill for Federal parks , beaches , buildings , bridges , railroads , highways , prisons. Hell , Id even give them net 30 !

    Robots ARE replacing too many people in the work force too quickly Jon. For example , steel production in the US has remained constant. Why the supposed thrashing of the industry ? Robots. Errrr , make that untaxed robots. Taxes that are needed to pay for social programs. Tell your story to the near 100 million unemployed in this country. Great solution is to bring in more when we cant afford to take care of what we have. One little thing we can all do is not to go through self check outs at the store. People always push it hard until we respond that “if we use the self check out , then people like you lose your job”

    STILL , no global warming , excuse me , make that climate change alarmist has ever come out and explained how Mars Venus Titan the gas giants etc etc , have ALL had the exact same temperature flucuations as Earth. No SUV’s on Mars. Feel free to search NASA/JPL databases. Its really there.

  5. Steve Wynn is the new RNC finance chairman. Wynn has enough money to retire 100,000 times, so he’s not in it for $$s. His concern? JOBS – or to translate – middle class incomes are what created and sustains the gaming industry. Without the middle class it’s buh bye Casinos, cuz robots don’t gamble, drink or whore. IOW, we are entering most interesting times with a clash of corporate interests and humans vs machines. Grab your popcorn it’ll be better than Super Bowl 51! (Except you robots, of course, who don’t eat.)

  6. The thing to keep in mind about immigration is that by the year 2022 (that’s 5 years) the USA will have more than 400 million inhabitants. Aside from printing money, the country does not have the money or the resources to build and maintain the first world infrastructure you experienced back in the 20th century. So it’s not necessary to expatriate to have that second world experience, just sit tight and it will form around you.

    The reason people keep coming to the USA, is if you come from a third world country second world looks pretty good. But these immigrants have no idea how to live a western life. Rent them an apartment and in six months they will trash it, but it will still be nicer than where they came from. In the past, second generation immigrants were always fluent in the national language. Get a large enough enclave, and the community will sustain the language and will never assimilate.

  7. LOL. George, as far as I’m aware, you’re the only one trying to sell a California secession coupled with a Mexican-state takeover. Is there yet another state secession movement underway in California? Yes, which has for the moment replaced the ongoing grumblings about a NoCal secession and/or the creation of the Great State of Jefferson. Do I for a moment think the northern Mexican states are itching to break off from Mexico and join with California to create a new nation? Not so much. Mexicans have a great deal of national pride and, in my opinion, would be more likely to want to re-adsorb California than the other way around. How do you think California would respond to that?

    I once started a short story which dealt with Mexico having to cede the Baja peninsula to the United States in order to pay off debts. The notion was potentially great for the U.S. as a retirement/tourist mecca, but brought about all manner of unintended consequences in illegal border crossings across the Gulf of California, and repatriation issues between the state(s) of Baja and the Mexican mainland. I threw up my hands and abandoned my research when I got into the tangle of business regulations between our two countries. You’re welcome to pick up the threads if you think you can make it work, but personally I don’t think it is now, nor will ever be, viable.

    • Oh, it’s a cluster-whozzit and a trainwreck from the git-go, but just because something is a bad idea (like slavery) DOESN’T mean people won’t try it if there’s enough personal $$$ in it. Ditto political movements like the latest”something in the water out there” oif the left coast…

  8. Before we diss robots, isn’t a fact that humans must build and develop the robots? The building of the plants and machinery to assemble the robots will employ millions. Robots doing menial tasks is not too dissimilar to turn of the 20th century cars taking over the tasks of stable owners, horse droppings sanitation workers and horse feed companies. Autos killed that industry. Most rote tasks that robots are being invented to do are crappy jobs anyway. If you want to solve our cheap immigration labor problem, I can’t think of a better way than eliminating the jobs they cross the border to take.

    One other thing. I did not expect the NFL to take a stance against Trump, but through sponsorships and commercials, they sure did. The half time show was sponsored by Alfa Romeo. Not only is this the first time I have seen an Alfa Romeo commercial on any national broadcast, they sponsored the half time show and aired a multitude of commercials through the pre and post game shows as well. Why is this significant? Isn’t A major portion of Trumps campaign to buy American? The most patriotic and many felt the best commercial was Hyundai, a Korean company. From the spot that stated we have 4 more years of bad hair ahead, to the Coke and Airbnb immigration spots to other issues like women’s rights, there was a distinct message. But the two that surprised me the most were Budweiser and 84 Lumber. Both definitely had an inclusion and immigration message that were trolling Trumplethinskin. Especially 84 Lumber and the wall spot. Not only was that spot a multimillion dollar production, but it was aired at the height of the Super Bowl high dollar spot rotation. Both Budweiser and 84 Lumber seems to me to be the type of brands Trump voters would patronize the most. Both companies didn’t seem to care and were using their top market share and strength to basically tell America to take a chill pill on immigration and be accepting. Plus, the NFL is a worldwide brand like Many of the commercials that took a stance. Today Silicon Valley through its hat into the law suit ring on the “Ban”. They hire world class talent from many of those countries on the list. They DO have a lot to lose with this ban. And in the end, it will be the very corporations that Trump is trying to help that will be the undoing of this and many of his immigration and wall policies.

      • And there will be people that make the self replicating robots that make the self replicating robots. It’s like being in a wall of mirrors. There will always be a endless array of jobs for humans. Many of those jobs will be raising the bar intellectually to the point where our biggest industry will be the education it takes to raise our standards. History has the real life precedents to prove that. From paper and pen to typewriters to computers to cloud. From the Pony Express to telegraphs, to landlines to cell phones to the future of implant technology. I could name hundreds of industries that thought an technology upgrade would devastate jobs. Guess what? They increased jobs nearly 10 fold in just the two industries mentioned.

    • There are many new jobs created by new technologies, but this time there is one little difference.
      The new jobs will be taken by robots.

      • Well, that is your choice Dave., but as I have stated, Trump only got 27% of all registered voters. 84 Lumber did their research. If they were public, I would buy their stock right now. They will overwhelmingly benefit from that TV spot

      • And as stated before the election brought out an all-time record of voters. Your desire for a 100% turn-out will never be achieved Jon. The 48% that didn’t vote for either is a testament to the country’s feelings toward both candidates. But your ability to revise and restate your own version of the truth must be an example of your prowess as an international salesman. I’ll bet you’ve sold a few bridges in your time.

        Seriously – would you really have wanted to see Hillary & crew in the White House again?

      • Scratch that – make it 48% that voted for neither candidate. It was still a record turn out.

  9. I wonder how long Californians will be desiring to be free of the rest of “deplorable” America once it becomes clear that their Pacific coast is dying from the radiation from Fukushima (http://enenews.com/tv-woah-dead-whales-record-high-number-of-deaths-in-hawaii-carcasses-scattered-throughout-islands-in-pacific-sick-ans-starving-animals-a-mystery-to-scientists-possible-health). Even the Central Valley food production could be affected.
    Methinks there will be a mass Exodus, and they will be begging for help. Let’s see, by then, how likely it is that they will get it.

  10. RE:immigration and cooling

    European friends are posting stories on Facebook about crop failures there due to cold. I said we don’t need to worry about ME muslims wanting to come here, if the cold continues, Europeans will want to move here.

  11. If the Left propels California into secession and a re-association with Mexico … we are going to need a longer fence.

  12. Robots are ….here.
    I have been into the McDonalds here in Saskatchewan Canada in the last couple of weeks and all of the tills and human servers except one in each restaurant have been replaced by self serve areas. I really despise this, and when the last human till is gone, I won’t be eating there any more.
    Sorry guys, but I won’t support Ronald McRobot even if it is cheaper.

    • Do a search on Cafe X the new Hong Kong chain of coffee dispensaries using bionic barristas that can put out 100 – 120 drinks an hour. These are test marketing now in the Bay Area. Technological innovation again trumps human wisdom.