Houston Flooding Nuke Plant Worry?

Not yet in the MSM/SnoozeMedia:  My consigliere pointed this out to us:

The South Texas Nuclear Project Electric Generating Station (also known as STNP, STPEGS, South Texas Nuclear Project), is a nuclear power station southwest of Bay City, Texas, United States. The STNP occupies a 12,200-acre (4,900 ha) site on the Colorado River about 90 miles (140 km) southwest of Houston. It consists of two Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactors and is cooled by a 7,000-acre (2,800 ha) reservoir, which eliminates the need for cooling towers. Only recently did the capacity of Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station surpass these Texas units.[1]

My consigliere worries about things like flood water levels getting high enough to cause problems with the cooling systems.

(Continues below…)

 

 

He goes on to report that as of last night:

The basic data:

link to historic high water marks for just upstream from the plant, all time high 56.1 feet:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/crests.php?wfo=ewx&gage=bact2&crest_type=historic

Historical Crests for Colorado River (TX) near Bay City

water.weather.gov

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

link to current water gauge and expected crest heights (which keep being raised):

items of note:  Flood Stage = 44 feet.  projected flood crest height as of Monday AM was 52.5 feet.

Nuke plant level above flood stage it can handle 12 feet (per news articles).  The news articles also said that the plant was designed to survive a 100 year flood event (sheesh … what stupidity!!) ie; the 12 foot level above flood stage.  (the plant has been reported to be 2 miles from the river fwiw … it uses a pond cooling system, NOT river water or a cooling tower system)

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ewx&gage=bact2&hydro_type=2

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

water.weather.gov

National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Also … an NPR program mid afternoon talked about a town upstream on the Colorado River, described as 80 miles from Houston, where the flood stage was 26 feet but the projected peak, late tomorrow was 54 feet!! … much much higher than any recorded flood crest EVER!!  Of course downstream the flood plain will be much wider so the crest should not be as high.

One needs to pay attention to the Bay City gauge and projection for seeing if the nuke plant is going to have the “potential” for the overtopping of it’s flood defenses.

Just another problem for SE Texas.

(OH .. the two reservoirs upstream from Houston that they began emergency releases from Monday … among the 6 in the US most in danger of catastrophic failure (even before this event) per Army Corp of Engineers reports due to poor construction, age, and poor maintenance).

Addics is one of the two reservoirs in trouble upstream from Houston (and one of the 6 most unsafe dams in the US).  Water level was still climbing about 1/2 foot per 2 hours Monday at 104.93 feet.  The top of the spillway is about 107 feet and the height of the reservoir embankment /dam appears to be 117 feet.

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2110?view=full

Release rates were climbing all day and are now up to 9,830 cubic feet per second  cf/s.  To put that into perspective the normal release from the Hoover Dam into the Colorado river is 11,000 cf/s … which is a LOT of water!!!  (from the data the average release rate is “medium” 148 cf/s and “mean” is 178 cf/s.  https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=08073700&agency_cd=USGS

USGS 08073700 Buffalo Bayou at Piney Point, TX

waterdata.usgs.gov

Datum of gage changed from 1.35 ft below NGVD 1929 to NAVD 1988, 2001 adjustment, on Oct. 1, 2008. New datum is 3.73 ft below previous datum.”

We will keep a close eye on the gauges!  This could be a double-nightmare if the plant runs into trouble.

The Bay Town station is upstream from the nuke plant while the Matagorda gauge is downstream.

The circled area in the middle are the nuke plant cooling ponds, and the plant is located at the top (north) end of the ponds.

The Colorado is projected to crest in that area about 7 PM today so not quite out of the woods on this just yet.

Flood Damaged Reporting

We do already know the answer to this one, don’t we?  Can Flood Water Make You Sick?

Housing Data Out

Is Housing Bubble #2 in progress?  We wonder based on the latest data just out from Case-Shiller/S&P/Corelogic:

NEW YORK, AUGUST 29, 2017 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in June, up from 5.7% the previous month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.9% annual increase, down from 5.0% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a 5.7% year-over-year gain, the same as the previous month.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Seattle led the way with a 13.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 8.2%, and Dallas with a 7.7% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2017 versus the year ending May 2017.

As we constantly remind readers, these prices don’t count the buy-sell spread from commissions and fees.  Also not shown is the effect of inflation.

If you look at a $225,000 house in 2006 and apply the Minneapolis Fed Inflation adjustments, that would be (on something approaching a Purchasing Power Parity basis, a $272,723 home today.

That would place the size of recovery (PPP basis) very close to 80% and that would be a very common reversal point to lower levels to come.

TRLM: The Red Line Matters

Housing in a few minutes.  Meanwhile, let’s talk money, shall we?  Why, if I didn’t know better, I’d say that last weekend’s Peoplenomics.com report was just about perfectly timed for maximum use (and profits).

In that article (Yet Another Trading Scheme) I outlined a “common sense” approaches to investing (based on “memory roll-off”) and how to derive a certain “Red Line” from easily available data with almost no math – just some rudimentary knowledge of Excel.

The bottom line of this method (in the short term — <1-month, or so) is that:

“When the main Index (black line) crosses OVER the RED line, be LONG.  When the BLACK line crosses UNDER  the RED, be SHORT.”

And since the Black Line was under the Red Line at the close of last week, we announced that we expected this week would continue down the slippery slope…

Then, almost magically, the headlines fill in with stories like U.S. stock futures lower as North Korea missile test reignites concerns which is as close to plugging in our money-printer as it comes.

Work around Uretopia never takes a break though, so this morning, I will take Elaine’s car into the shop for an oil change.  A task made more pleasant because our current favorite shop has a pool table for customers to “rack up on” while their cars are “up on the rack”…

Once that’s done, it will be off to the County Courthouse for the new tabs (getting the state inspection done, too, of course).  And from there a bit of shopping.  Like they say, any port in a storm, but something tawny would be good.  (If you slept through the wine pun, click here and do try to keep up with the class.)

I reckon this afternoon will be soon enough to look at the market again.  The futures are well down and gee, shucks, golly, imagine that, huh?  Lol – the Saturday Peoplenomics piece if’n you missed it lives at https://peoplenomics.com/inside/nl20170826.htm.  And yes, Peoplenomics is STILL just $40-bucks a year.

If we were to charge what it’s worth only our few billionaire subscribers could afford it.  (Those are the subscribers with addresses like “XYZ fund, Fifth Avenue, NYC.”)

When I get home, I’ve asked Elaine to have my Scrooge McDuck suit laid out…Disney’s Scrooge was always throwing gold around, but at my advancing age, just throwing trade slips around is enough work…

Today’s action will go in my trading log as “lunch money”  but did I mention the choice of cities? Countries?

We will get out of the short side when the black line rises above the green line (this is only supposed make sense to subscribers),  and that ought to happen tomorrow or Friday.  But I’ll be checking before the close.

Here’s Comes the Data Flood

In addition to the data on Housing mentioned earlier, the rest of the week has a full dance card, too.

Tomorrow we get corporate profits and ADP hiring data.  Thursday bring the Challenger layoff slips and Personal Income and fairytales.  Friday is the nutcracker:  The monthly EmpSit from Labor then car sales, the ISM number.

Oh, and of course the latest read on how much money the Fed is grinding out.  This last one is critical since it will give us some insight into how far up the Fed will let stocks roll.  In the meantime the BTC’s will likely try to break higher next week so maybe a run at the $4,7000-$5,300 range to finish off that bubble.  We shall see, and you’re on Ure own.  We don’t sell Tulips.

Goodbye Cultural Imperialism?

Airline to ditch bikini-clad stewardesses for flights to Muslim countries.  Well, we weren’t planning a trip to one, anyway…still…

Comments

Houston Flooding Nuke Plant Worry? — 15 Comments

  1. George, I don’t have the money to pretend to play the market, but I have been reading your site daily for 10+ years, longer than I have stuck with any other. Your knowledge is quite valuable and I wish more of our “elders” would share their knowledge instead of being smug with it. Anyways, I am not a computer genius, but may I recommend someone setting up a website to connect construction companies (lack of work types, and travelers) with upcoming jobs and bidding work projects that will be needed in a few weeks in south Texas. Just a thought I had and you have a known platform. Thanks.

  2. Nothing should be surprising to us as it pertains to this rigged market. Early day traders probably got wiped out this morning. I’m in Mississippi buying tax liens so I didn’t get to participate in this mornings blood bath while both NY & Washington’s PPT teams pulled a biat and switch.
    IDK what’s next as it pertains to present market direction. EWI figures a correction at some point in time and a quick rise or not. Ure’s truly I think is just about liening;) over the edge. I’m excited to see tomorrows chart pack. It’s got to be a mixed bag… We are getting wet in Biloxi but my thoughts are for are neighbors in Texas and New Orleans, word is that there is a pump out of order that protects the city from flooding. How convenient…

    • The mayor of New Orleans spent about one million dollars to remove four statues but spent little to nothing on the pumping system!
      His dreams of climbing the democrat party ladder may be the cities undoing again.

  3. After 1 day, displaced moving averages is right on for TQQQ. I think this could turn into one of your best ideas. Great Job. Could be worth a Peoplenomics price increase down the road.

  4. Told you about the hurricane a while back george.

    It can be found as a off t0pic post. Was just over chatting with the elequant dog. I have the day off so I’m making my “rounds”.

    God it seems, thinks I need a day of rest.

    What else shall we glean from the future? If anything important comes my way via “God’, I will be sure to pass sum along.

    It’s hotter than a well diggers ass today.

    If I only had some free time I would go get me another woman.im just too driven at the moment. Goals aren’t goals u less you are working toward them. Priorities.

    Funny how they call them goals. And in sports they call them goals. Gives you the chemical induced sense of winning. Kinda like going to score, and all these other big game metephores.

    Where is Jon and in his tangent?

    I suppose another cup of coffee and a few more reds is in order. Damn things will kill ya they say. Well I have flat lined 10 times and I’m still here. going to take more than that to take me out. :)

    Wonder, if the poet will post my comment, or keep it to himself and use it as his own. Hopefully, he is a man of integrity these days. But we all have our lessons to learn. I’m grateful for mine.

    But coin at $4500, Jesus in a side car! I’m hold for now.

    Have a good day.

    0

  5. I noticed the link to the bikini clad flight attendants does not work. Are you holding out on is George?

  6. Hooray for George and YATM!
    At 1000 CST the green line was cross and went short to long. Worked just like you said. Made my $40 for the year and, as you said, some lunch money.
    Now another observation, since you are set up and have way more practice (of course, this is just noodling about what we both do on our individual accounts). I set this up to watch both Dow and S&P500. Yesterday S&P went long and Dow stayed Short. Today S&P is down and DOW up. Looking at your charts, because you have more historical data than I do, would you think one might be predictive of the other?
    The S&P being broader, should move first dontcha think? So if S&P goes back short in one day, what would you be watching (for your own account)?
    Thanks for the insite!

  7. I am amused by the headline: “Historical Crests of Colorado River (TX) near Bay City.” Where was the editor? Shouldn’t it be “Historic?” Doesn’t grammar count anymore?

    • That was from a govt web site – a reflection on how well our taxes are spent.
      The Oxford dictionaries explains the point
      Historic and historical are used in slightly different ways. Historic means ‘famous or important in history’, as in a historic occasion, whereas historical means ‘concerning history or historical events’, as in historical evidence; thus a historic event is one that was very important, whereas a historical event is something that happened in the past.