Housing Still Rolling – But for How Long?

There has been some speculation in the financial press (such as it is) that Housing might begin to soften sometime after the first of the year. Reasons? Debt saturation of young people, interest rates firming to rising, and so forth.

But there’s another factor: A lot of people who are Baby Boomers (like us, for instance) have very large homes/property and that are not conducive to serious aging.

Until you’re into your 70’s, living on a large multi-story home sounds great. Problem is that statistically, the home is where most accidents are (because we spend more time in them as we age?) and because stairs are always a risk for a fall. As you roll into the 80’s – and hopefully beyond – there’s the matter of proximity of resources, too. Instant medic response…and maybe even a grocery store within walking distance for the eventuality of losing driving privileges due to eyesight issues.

In short, at the macro, inter-generational level – we have massively over-built housing in some respects.

Still, it’s not really an “in-your-face” rollover – at least just yet.

But it’s something to think about as we roll through this morning’s data from Census on last month’s Housing Starts…

“BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,210,000. This is 0.2 percent (±1.8%)* below the revised November rate of 1,212,000, but is 0.7 percent (±1.6%)* above the December 2015 estimate of 1,201,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 817,000; this is 4.7 percent (±1.7%) above the revised November figure of 780,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 355,000 in December. An estimated 1,186,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2016. This is 0.4 percent (±0.8%)* above the 2015 figure of 1,182,600.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000. This is 11.3 percent (±10.4%) above the revised November rate of 1,102,000 and is 5.7 percent (±12.0%)* above the December 2015 rate of 1,160,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 795,000; this is 4.0 percent (±9.2%)* below the revised November figure of 828,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000. An estimated 1,166,400 housing units were started in 2016. This is 4.9 percent (±2.5%) above the 2015 figure of 1,111,800.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,123,000. This is 7.9 percent (±11.4%)* below the revised November rate of 1,219,000, but is 8.7 percent (±10.1%)* above the December 2015 rate of 1,033,000. Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 761,000; this is 0.9 percent (±9.3%)* below the revised November rate of 768,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 355,000. An estimated 1,062,300 housing units were completed in 2016. This is 9.7 percent (±3.4%) above the 2015 figure of 968,200…”

Later this month we will see the Case-Shiller data (last Tuesday of the month) and that one is particularly interesting because while Housing has recovered since the 2009 wash-out and some folks are recovering some of their “home equity wealth” at some point a buyer at current (or higher) prices is needed.

Judging by how well the “doom-porn” crowd is doing, not to mention young people who are stupid enough to believe Donald Trump is the End of the World incarnate, there’s little sense of “future optimism” in America these days.

Thanks in part to the negativism from the election cycle, it is becoming quite possible that the next collapse will be a combination of residential real estate reaching another peak (2017 is the 10-year harmonic from the 2007 peak) but more than that, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Crazy, huh?

But that’s why we expect equity markets to peak along about March’ish – but it could extend from there. Main thought is simply this: Demonstrators (especially the paid provocateurs) who agitate for money tomorrow are not just saying No to Donald Trump, they are trashing your economic future, as well.

Negativism is like the old “Glass Half full” problem. Up until now, America has clung to the Half Full paradigm. But thanks to the democrat party crooks, we are flipping over into “Glass Half Empty” thinking.

Should it materialize quickly – especially in light of the whining losers in politics – we really WILL have that Second/Greater Depression. And after screwing with core American values (like a border, for example), the democrats have arranged for another wave of socialism when they cause failure for the Trump administration.

Of course, none of this has come to pass yet. But it’s the line of history we’ve seen before.

The key date-range to watch will be 192 days after the Swearing in because that’s how it worked out for Herbert Hoover in 1929. From his hand on the Bible to the absolute market top.

Great rollovers in the social mood don’t happen overnight. They are more a psychological cancer and oftentimes that takes a long while to get over. In the case of the Great Depression it was about one 11-year real estate (Juglar) cycle. In the Great Depression, that turn-around wasn’t complete until almost 1941 when the Japanese were goaded into attacking Pearl Harbor. Let me see…yep. Democrats again.

Please don’t take offense that I point out the partisanship angles to economics. But we live in a country where both parties are crooked and they TALK a great game, but in the end they’re all cut of the same Tax and Spend cloth.

Which is why Trump takes office with a massive $20-trillion federal debt and with lots more to come because republican sell-out (Paul Ryan in particular) didn’t oppose the latest Obama budget which will be in force through this coming November.

Given that there’s little that Trump will be able to do, we get to sit back and watch the whiners and wait for the inevitable.

As some point, the naysayers are working hard today to make sure that glass of water turns out completely empty.

Character Assassination

HHS nominee Tom Price is being tortured in public by the democrats. Seems some stock was bought on his behalf after he’d made decisions that could impact a healthcare company. Democrats conveniently put out the timeline wrong to make Price look like a bad-guy.

But it doesn’t stop there. The WaPo makes it sound like everyone nominated has an ethics question mark next to them. They generalize it as “Trump cabinet nominees meet growing ethical questions.”

Again, we were talking about the democrat-controlled….

Also in the What are they Smoking? Dept…

The NY Post is claiming “Advisers urge Trump to dance with Caitlyn Jenner at inauguration.”

Here’s our simple take on it: Fake news unless the purported GOP adviser(s) are specifically named.

More likely: Liberal fake news to twist up Trump relations with the LBGTQI community.

In other words, sounds like a set-up by the NY press to lure/goad Trump into a response. Look for a tweet…if Trump falls for the bait.

Hmmm…is the term “straight-baiting” out there?

With a wife like Malania, would you dance with anyone else?

Stirring Up Liberals

Still, the lefties are trying to whip up more anti-Trump moves. See the Philly Inquirer report about how “800 turn out in King of Prussia to learn how to confront a Trump administration.”

It’s a whole new industry, this “stirring up the liberals” game played by political operatives and professional victim-class “leaders.”

But the worse part is: They won’t get the blame properly due.

Those Poor International Students

Chicago Trib headline is “With Trump as president, international students ponder future in U.S.”

I have an idea: How about we put American kids in those chairs?

The $100 Mall

Galleria at Pittsburgh Mills sold for $100 Wednesday. This as we’ve been writing for months about the coming implosion in physical retail space due to online competition.

Wells Fargo foreclosed a year ago and then bought it from themselves. One valued at almost $200-million its down to $11-million in more recent valuations.

We look for the epic showdown between the Trump administration (and long term real estate owners like insurance companies and pension funds).

We’re pretty sure that’s why Amazon boss Jeff Bezos shell out $23-million for a home in D.C. That’s likely to be where the showdown over anti-trust and online will be played out.

Speaking of DC Real Estate

Am I the only one to call bullzhit on Obama for building a wall around his home in DC (pictures here) while he wouldn’t even discuss a real wall between the U.S. and Mexico?  He worked to effectively tear that one down.

What’s good for the sheep isn’t on the wolf’s menu is what it looks like.

Student Loan Collector Cheated?

Dealbook section of the NY Times is worth a grab this morning if you have children who used Navient for the student loans.

Cold Weather Quake Tragedy

Seem that an earthquake has triggered a huge avalanche in Italy that has buried a hotel.

Comments

Housing Still Rolling – But for How Long? — 46 Comments

  1. Building on a rotted foundation is not a good plan. Where is ANYONE putting together Court Watchers? People who are willing to go to a courtroom, sit in the gallery, watch and then report/bar grieve/judicial conduct complain those who deserve it? Because if the local court is corrupt, how can one expect building on that to work out?

  2. Best article (below) from a great writer. Eat it Trump lovers. It was stated today that Trump wants his first song to be Sinatra’s “My Way”. Nice song except he may want to read the lyrics. It starts like this. “And now, the end is near,
    And so I Face, the final curtain” Is he telling us something? Or is he one of those who reads headlines only and not the content? I think the latter is true
    Here is the article. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/opinion/retweeting-donald-trump.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0&referer=http://m.facebook.com

    • Don’t you think that people can have different opinions than you without being a paid troll?

      I’ve been reading George for 10+ years. I’m pro-guns, pro-death penalty, pro-nuclear power, pro-freedom. I didn’t vote for O or Hillary.

      The most important survival tool of all is an open mind.

      • I feel sorry for you…really that you think you are sooo different from the rest of us. I too am pro guns, which is not a conservative thing. Many liberals are pro second amendment by the way… Many of us are also pro death penalty. I am not sure why nuclear power is a conservative thing. It is a real inefficient power source in my opinion. But I am pro power and however we get there without using coal is fine with me. And who the hell is not pro freedom? What does that even mean? Are you a libertarian? That’s great… except your new boob in chief is not.

  3. Donald Trump is not a Republican, and ‘they’ know it.

    Bill Clinton created the 2008-9 collapse with the destruction of bank regs in the late 1990’s.

    Just the facts, Maam….

  4. George,

    When did your site become the liberal crapping spot. I’m so excited for tomorrow I’ll be up all night. No more Gay Pride lights shining on the White House – no more Clock boy trips to the White, no more free lunches. Time to grow up America.

  5. Re the Obama wall: I wonder what B.O. is so paranoid about? He HAS served his masters well and faithfully.

  6. George. Love ya, but facts are facts. Obama doubled real estate and tripled stocks, despite the R’s relentless, deliberate sabotage and your constant predictions of econ collapse always in just another 6 months. Bush’s Great Recession lead to about 90% of Obama’s national debt due to lost tax revenues and unemployment costs. Rs always swell the national debt way, way, way more than Ds. And following the same failed R economic theory, Trump will add another $11 trillion to the ntl debt, and not a peep from you George, except to dis Rand Paul for his concern. And the R’s gave us that terrorist immigration nightmare you constantly complain about by breaking the Middle East. And Trump’s berating the Peso will just cause more jobs to go to Mexico. And following the same econ theories, the Rs will finally give us that Second Great Depression you’ve been predicting for 6+ years. Maybe I need to start prepping after all. Ha ha. Best, Mike.

    • I don’t know where you are getting your facts, but YOUR wrong, and it is because people like you are misinformed and blame the wrong people!! sure are lots of misinformed people and that has led to couch potato-ism which allowed libtards to RUIN this country!! and that is FACT!! Obutthead did NOT help this country in any shape or form!!

  7. If I was Trump, I’d restrict my dancing to Melania(mainly) with some time and photo-ops with the daughters.

    That avoids the whole nonsense about dancing with anyone else, and contention between various others. Let the Jenner person bring a guest to dance with.

  8. four years back, I scurried around town, looking at distressed properties below 30,000 dollars and found a half dozen plus around 6 blocks from where i live and across from the health food market, tried to get between owners and brokers and insiders and politically correct corporations and buy one as it would have made my life a lot less troublesome, without any relocations, then on two ends of the block new apartment like town houses, condos were built on vacant lots which started offering prison like units at 650,000 and 675,000 dollars, that caused every house of single family, decade holding owners, fruit trees and improvements and community builders to put for sale signs out…? complete housing BS all around, see your broker, pay 6 percent commission and give them paydays for robbing and front running me..? no thanks, try to opine this belief in most comments sections, and you would think you had the fractional reserve bank plaque

  9. George. We still love you, but Sometimes I wonder where you’ve been the past 20 years. Republican’s always swell the national debt like 9 times more. Probably 6/7ths of Obama’s debt came from less tax receipts from Bush’s Great Recession. So the R’s economics gave us about 90% of $20 trillion of that debt. And the terrorist/immigration nightmare came from the R’s breaking the Middle East. Obama doubled real estate and tripled stocks, all in the face of R’s sabotage and your constant predictions of collapse. Trumps plans will add $11 trillion more to the debt and not a peep from you. You even called Rand Paul a traitor for his concern over the ntl debt. And of course, the R’s failed economic theories will finally give us that Great Depression you’ve been constantly predicting for the past 6+ years. Best. Mike.

    • OMG………My eyes, my eyes……..hav’nt seen teets that big sence I was on the dairy farm!

  10. Of the 95 million Adult Americans who are not employed, 23% of them have college degrees. The old belief that a college degree has some value dies really hard. The main reason new college graduates ever get hired is because they will work cheaper than those with experience. What these new graduates don’t understand, is than an employer only treats an employee as well as they pay them.

    America has a fixation on experience, and USA companies have very little capability for training. A friend’s wife, who is 70+ years old, contracts as a department manager for the surgical operations of hospitals. She is paid almost $100 per hour plus expenses (hotel or apartment, rental car, food stipend) for her work, works continuously and turns down more jobs than she takes. Question is, why can’t these hospitals train some of these young nurses to do this job for half the price? She has been doing this contracting for years.

    My wife has a nurse friend in California who oversees care plans for patients so MediCal patients get cost effective treatment for serious medical problems. She told my wife she could get her a position starting at $80k. Problem is, they only have enough work to keep her busy half a day, but she has to stay until 5PM every day no matter the workload. Occasionally, if a california retiree out of state requires treatment, they fly her to make an evaluation, all expenses paid of course.

    I may just be negative, but the medical care in the USA does not inspire a lot of confidence for me.

    Sucks to be a young person in the USA.

  11. George, Jon is the reason we are at this point. He is a D, not an A (American). His entire being is consumed with the attack on any and all R’s. There is no way you will ever get these snowflakes to comprehend this fact. I have tried a few of them. The D is their pride, their religion, their ‘America’.

  12. “I have an idea: How about we put American kids in those chairs?”

    George I agree one hundred percent.. I cannot even tell you how many people I have met from other countries that are given a free college education by the citizens of the USA.. while our kids have to mortgage their futures to get one..

    • All by design. Then those foreign parents sneer at us and say we don’t sacrifice for our children. Yes, they say it. Meanwhile, US citizens are now watching as our obummer government continued the FREE pre-school through college educations for illegals. YES, that is already accomplished, too. Those poor illegals, they need an education so as to lift up their families. The shafting to the citizens has been going on a loooong time!

    • In many cases, foreign students pay through the nose for access to American universities. I know several at my local university and am amazed at how much the institution rakes in. This is especially true with China, since parents will throw all of their money into their one child. Not smart in many cases, but definitely smart in some cases in the hard sciences. There’s no reason to give a foreign student a free education in our schools, and every reason to find ways to reduce the price of tuition and INCREASE THE VALUE OF THE EDUCATION! I recently looked through a course catalog to find “courses” on rap, hip-hop, “pop culture”, and all manner of “social justice” crap. In most cases, the same number of hours in free private study would yield far more competence. The school’s major function these days is credentialing.

      There’s a “magic middle” where things are measured by utility and value, along with compassion and respect for the rule of law. As I’m sure George will confirm, flying on only one wing(left or right) will asymmetrically stall, spin, crash and burn. Flying with all the mass on the wingtips is a very unstable configuration. We need a real center to stabilize our country.

  13. You Re-pube-Icans are such hypocrites. For 8 years, the con-servative media punished Obama at each and every thing he did. Mitch McConnell recently said that his greatest accomplishment was obstructing Obama at every thing he proposed. Fox vilified him. You think the news on Trump is unfair? Fox tripled down and made hundreds of millions in ad money being the anti-Obama channel. Stirring up the con in conservative.

    Now that the shoe is on the other foot with a real life, mentally challenged Trump, all of a sudden the media Is being unfair? What’s the difference between a story that is luring a tweet from Trump to dance with Caitlyn Jenner, which I am sure that the soon to be bumbler in Chief will fall for and tweet something back (a sign of his poor judgement) And the conservative media and Trump in particular accusing Obama of Not being a US citizen, or is Muslim. Fox seems to race bait by always calling him Barrack Hussein Obama. As if having a name like Hussein is horrible. That is the type of racist crap that angers the civilized world.

    How about Fox’s favorite cry that he takes too many vacations. For the record, President Obama has averaged around 32 vacation days per year since taking office or 256 days during 8 years in the White House. By contrast Bush took 879 days or around 110 per year (including a 5-week vacation. the longest by any President in nearly 4 decades), while Reagan took 390 days.

    Or how aboutObama is out to take away our Second Amendment rights! FALSE. Well, not anymore than Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush wanted to. He wants to put back in place the assault weapons ban that was supported by Reagan and Bush that expired in 2004. He also wants to limit magazine size to 10 rounds and require universal background checks for all gun purchases–something that is overwhelmingly supported by most Americans, regardless of political affiliation.

    Or this doozy that was part of Trumps campaign that Obama was the founder of ISIS. Obama is the reason why our troops were pulled out of Iraq! FALSE. Actually we pulled our troops out of Iraq because of a SOFA agreement that was signed by George W. Bush.

    For more conspiracy theories that were mostly started by Sites like Breitbart and other alt right sites, look at this article. I really got a great laugh and realized that it’s no wonder people voted for Trump. If they believe this stuff, they would believe that Trump is actually qualified to lead a country. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/chart-obama-conspiracy-theories

    • Aw, comm on Jon. ” Obama at each and every thing he did –
      Like WHAT?
      Flood our borders? Keep Christians out and install the MuBros in high government positions as unfireables? Come on./ Worst legislative hist – even worse than Jimmy Carter (whgo was a decent fellow).
      Did he improve race relations? Ask Fertguson and Baltimore residents.
      Did he balance the budget?
      Did he cause peace? Nope – ended with more wars than he took on.
      Bulk up the US dollar? No on that too.
      So yeah, sure, call me republican lickspittle and all but I don’t give a rip about either party.
      I just want to see America kick ass for a change instead of having the left-wing press trying to bait Trump day after day after…
      Weak willed America has been taken over by the socialists…who have cobbled up their November Revolution out of every special interest group on the block but none of them are America First…know what I’m saying?
      BTW: Would you dance with Caitlin at the Inaugural ball? That’s the kind of baiting story I’m talking about…bait, bait, bait.

    • Brilliant review, Jon! add Michelle Obama being called an ape, her husband a crossdresser or a “tranny” who somehow has fathered lots more than two kids, and Bill Clinton still accused of rape. But it’s okay when Trump admits physically and/or verbally harassing women because it’s just “locker room talk” and his accusers, all of them are liars. He courts the far right and they overlook his actions (divorces, cheating subcontractors, owning casinos, etc.) that they would be horrified and quite vocal about if a “librahl” was even imagined to have done the same. What a baby man trump is. Someday his staunch supporters are going to regret their kissing his a$$. That will be fun to watch! (and note, I didn’t vote for anyone mentioned above!)

      • Trump is everything that the folks who voted for him hate – multiple marriages, foreign born wife with a heavy accent, bankruptcy declaring, hollywood, self proclaimed celebrity, reality TV star, p grabber, NYC real estate developer, former democrat, was pro-choice, pro gay marriage, well educated elite, gold plated bathroom fixtures, draft dodger, crass, crude, etc.

        It’s inexplicable how the republicans have aligned behind someone that they would normally despise.

        And like you Debby I voted for neither.

      • Both DebbyS and Wavecrave and Jon and all their little friendly side kick, ego trollers, are just plain crazy. They didn’t vote for Donald Trump, our 45th President of the United States, so who cares? None of us care. We saw the baby obummer lie about many many things, over and over, even about the numerous scandals he had in his 8 years, which I notice they all failed to mention. George Ure, all I can say, is with all the trollers, liberal lunatics, hitting your site this last month, it tells me your website is finally ON THE RADAR! And that is a good thing! Cause you have more sense in your pinky than 65 million legal and illegal voters and the past several administrations; someone is paying attention and that is why you are on their attack hit list. One DAY SOON, the eyes will turn to your website more and more as you are proven right, not to mention, the incredible eludication that you present day in and day out. You would think that these lunatic liberals would gain an education from your writings instead they come on here to put you down! HA! It isn’t working is it?

    • Your facts on gun laws are incorrect.

      EVERY gun sale by a federally licensed dealer is already subject to a background check irrespective of where the sale takes place (including gun shows & internet). No new law required.

      Individuals who are not dealers are not regulated like dealers, and can sell to anyone within their state without a background check, again irrespective of where the sale takes place (incl gun show or internet). The Federal government is Constitutionally powerless to regulate intra-state sales of personal property under the inter-state commerce clause. Thus, no new law possible.

      However, individuals who sell to a buyer in another state are already legally required to ship the firearm to a dealer in the buyer’s state, who will run the required background check. No new law required.

      Individuals who are selling as dealers, but who are not licensed as dealers, are already breaking the law. No new law required.

      Anyone who sells to a known felon is already breaking a law. No new law required.

      Anyone who delivers a firearm for sale across state lines without involving a dealer for the background check is already breaking a law. No new law required.

      In short, there are not any additional Federal laws possible to attain your utopian goal of “universal background checks.”

    • Obviously brainwashed by watching too much fake news. You dance with Kaitlyn, you are the one with the fancy job and tender typing fingertips that spell victim in bright red! I notice you left out the executive orders your prince liked to sign to thwart our laws, his funding of sanctuary cities, and his unleashing of criminal aliens on us by keeping our borders wide open. His signing of the NDAA, after he said he wouldn’t, his re-authorizing and signing the Patriot Act, his back tracking and lying on his position of marriage between a man and a woman, his stripping 80 billion from Medicare to fund Obamacare, and the list goes on and on. Yeah, selective dementia is the diagnosis for you with overwhelming brainwashing. I think the medicine is no more fake news for you and go away for a long vacation, but stay away from those fancy people you hob nob with cause they are in the same boat as you. As a matter of fact since this site is causing you daily distress and mind wringing, I suggest you quit cold turkey. I double dare you to just go away. Oh, and PS, his certificate of birth IS FAKE! As proven by experts AND anyone who can use a computer! So get over it already.

      • So if O’s birth certificate is fake where do you think he was born?

        Do you also think that the birth announcements that ran in newspapers in 1961 were also faked? And who would have done that seeing how Obama was still on the bottle in 1961?

        [it’s difficult to even consider how to have a dialogue with someone who is a birther]

      • Birther and 9/11 Truther here Wave. The latter was on Bush’s watch but it’s all attributable to the people pulling the strings behind the scenes. Both Dubya and Obummer had a hand up their butts.

        http://www.ae911truth.org/ Little Jonny will feel right at home with all these professional types.

      • If Obummer had a birth certificate that would certify him as an eligible presidential candidate he would have displayed it proudly. But since he fought it tooth and nail down to the present day …

      • YOU answer where you think he was born, I only stated his Certificate of Birth was FAKED and PROVEN A FAKE, YOU PROVE IT WASN’T!

    • Our “country” is not. It is a corporation designed to profit from enslaving the people and sucking up resources. It is designed to destroy the magnificence of what mankind could be.

      This “Democrat” “Republican” nonsense is a divisive marionette to distract from the disease affecting humanity.

    • Ooooohh, George, look at THIS! Little Jonny’s brought all his little friends with him to spread some of the poop they’ve been living on for the past 8 years. Like I said before you slunk away – again – LJ, your 8 year wet dream’s over and the adults are coming back to take charge. Hope tomorrow’s a real scream for y’all.

      • Seems as tho your apparent, long term, and deep levels of self-ingested, or force-fed hate..buried deep in your tormented soul B. ,are pushing you to expunge those vile and idiotic attempts at commentary, in your hope of neutralizing them through your senseless bar-room logic!
        It’s not working so far, but then again..the entire purpose of life is but a work in progress?

      • The problem is they don’t wash their hands and the poop infects them and then it affects their brains and they end up with brainwashing without using chlorox. Kinda like Hillary who used a cloth to wipe her server clean! These poor little babies can’t wrap their head around that American citizens didn’t like watching their country go down the drain, the poop drain. AMERICA IS BACK, MEN ARE BACK! TRUMP IS THE 45TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. HE IS EVERYONE’S PRESIDENT WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT!!!

      • Al, ya got the force-fed part right. All 8 years of it. Your sound byte mentality is an exquisite rendering of the depth of your thinking. If you and LJ want to discuss then do so, otherwise you both are simply petulant children with both hands in your diapers.

      • B. if your rhetoric is the “baseline” for “depth of thinking”–I prefer a slightly different scale, one that bases unity in measurement, versus artificially produced movement via hate based rhetoric!
        Also, good try in attempted proof of “scholarly reputation”, using the “big” words. Better for your agenda to resort back to the “School-yard” blather!