Housing Start Surge 20+% – Stock Blow-off at Hand

Look for the market to put on new records today. 

And I know that how?

Well, Home Depot stock is smoking – and when their earnings hit, it was $1.21 a share in earnings.  Hard to beat that in this [sucky] environment.  I mean, how many companies are posting 21% profit increases, here lately?

The second factor in my optimism is the Housing Data just out this morning:

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,143,000. This is
10.1 percent (±2.2%) above the revised March rate of 1,038,000 and is 6.4 percent (±2.1%) above the April 2014 estimate of
Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 666,000; this is 3.7 percent (±0.9%) above the revised March figure of 642,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 444,000 in April.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,135,000. This is 20.2 percent (±14.4%) above
the revised March estimate of 944,000 and is 9.2 percent (±10.6%)* above the April 2014 rate of 1,039,000.
Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 733,000; this is 16.7 percent (±10.6%) above the revised March figure of
628,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 389,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 986,000. This is 20.4 percent (±14.1%)
above the revised March estimate of 819,000 and is 19.4 percent (±15.2%) above the April 2014 rate of 826,000.
Single-family housing completions in April were at a rate of 688,000; this is 14.5 percent (±12.4%) above the revised March rate of
601,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 288,000.

Then there’s this press release from the Retail Gift Card Association:

“More than 70% of shoppers will be giving gift cards this spring and summer during the assortment of gift-giving holidays that are approaching, including graduations, Father’s Day, and weddings. New research from the Retail Gift Card Association (RGCA) also confirms that the gifts remain popular with recipients as well, with 95% of consumers hoping to receive gift cards this spring and summer season.

The Association surveyed more than 1,000 U.S. consumers on their use of gift cards and habits for giving and receiving the cards. The survey also explored shoppers’ preferences for physical gift cards versus newer gifting options like electronic gift cards (e-gift cards), which can be redeemed online or via a mobile device using a virtual code.

When you put it all together, you put together the picture of a seriously recovering market…

Oh, and did I mention the short-squeeze of all time is nearly here that could push the Dow to upwards of 28,000?  Year on Year, these home starts are up 9.2% and that’s why Home Depot stock might run a good bit more.

Dancing With Deflation

I love how the MSM hide reality in plain sight. 

Here’s a WSJ article on how the UK is flirting with deflation.

Oh, wait…it’s not flirting really, is it?  I mean when year on year prices are down (and this is despite quantitative pleasing’s and all the rest of it, can someone please start writing headlines that reflect like in at least the right Universe?

UK Nailed by Deflation: Bankers Sweat, Waffle, and Scheme” would have been oh so much more realistic.

But then again, the press release reliant media doesn’t seem to have the chutzpah it did, once upon a time before corporations took over governments….

Troubles in the War With Mexico

The “War With Mexico” has been underway for years.  It’s just that the spineless mainstream  doesn’t portray it that way.  Truth is, it’s an invading army – as people in Waco are noticing.

When conflict happens, the administration stooges all play softball, accept wishy-washy answers that wouldn’t pass muster with a 12-year old, and on we go.

Still, when you look, you’ll see Border Patrol Agents being injured – rather frequently.  And while all this goes on, the attacks on the border and illegal crossings continue unabated.

This is a classic  low intensity conflict.  It’s also a typical bi-level war.  I call it a “bi-level” war because if you make $100,000 a year, or more, there is no war.  You can  go to Mexico, pay your tourism fees, stay in a stylish place, and have a great time.

But if you’re poor, hear the American song and dance about coming north, and send the kids, then  when the kids make it through the war zone (perhaps carrying a couple of keys for the biker gangs) then it looks a lot more like a war.

So that’s what we call it around here.  War.

And that gets us to reviewing the leadership skills of Colonel Klink’s reincarnation…  You see, in the midst of a war (ask the folks in McAllen, Texas)…he has….

Yet Another Very Bad Idea

The Imperial President is cherry-picking again.

His latest terrible idea is to prevent state and local cops from enforcing immigration laws.

We’d like to offer to support the idea, in return for ending local enforcement efforts of other federal laws that don’t fit our agenda of convenience and political erxpediency, such as drug sales, securities fraud, and a lot of others.

What?  No takers?  Never a liberal or conservative around when you need one.

Well, then we have to decline to support this selective enforcement/tolerance  policy because it is bad policy.

Not like I’m the only one to see imperience amuck(see if that’s a word, please? If it’s not a word, it should be…):  Rand Paul is calling for the president to actually enforce the laws handed down recently by the Courts – something he’s remarkably weak on given his “constitutional scholar” spin.

Presidential Judgment Problem Post 2016

Sooner-than-we’d-like president Clinton (she’s the one buying the office as high bidder) is in hot water with the NY Times.  This time for circulating non-government memos from a close associate.

After reading the Times account, take an aspirin with your coffee…it’s only a sample of the headaches to come.

Meantime, the surviving Clinton email stash won’t be released until January of next year…I assume you know that his is only half of them; the others being wiped off servers.

(I don’t mean to offend, but Clinton has this one in the bag unless the GOP get’s serious and frankly, they don’t have it in ‘em.)

The Morph of Media

We continue to see the old-line print media losing business.  Anyone (including Ures truly) can rewrite a press release.

The further limitations of print journalism of the “on dead tree” sort becomes more apparent when I run across press releases like this one:

“The Federation for Internet Alerts (FIA), a collaboration of ad technology companies, networks and exchanges that facilitates real-time alerts in place of online and mobile advertising, today announced that AOL, AppNexus, Rocket Fuel and xAd have joined its roster of partners, significantly expanding the reach and global impact of the network, which currently serves more than 30 billion real-time messages each day worldwide. FIA is now scaling this powerful coalition to save lives in emergency situations.

FIA was founded in 2013 by digital marketing agency Conversant (recently acquired by Epsilon) and global media investment company GroupM to leverage commercial online and mobile advertising technology to expand the reach of AMBER Alerts for the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC). Since then, the vision now encompasses warning people in affected areas about any kind of critical hazard.

FIA has brought more than 500 million dynamic AMBER Alert impressions to over 100 million devices during 686 abductions, driving record traffic to AMBER Alert posters on NCMEC’s website that can be shared or printed to assist in locating the child. The alerts are targeted to people in the geographic area where law enforcement believes the abducted children are located. In addition, FIA has delivered in excess of 8.5 million messages for tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

The faster the world moves, the more hopeless anachronistic old media becomes.  Like the “walking dead” they just don’t seem to have it sorted out yet…

Like Peak Oil, which so many people don’t believe in, we notice that the Death of Newspapers is being denied, too.  Try Greatly Exaggerated: The Myth of the Death of Newspapers.  Not available for Kindle.  There went half the market, lol.

Comments

Housing Start Surge 20+% – Stock Blow-off at Hand — 3 Comments

  1. …is it just me, or did the dates for Jade Helm ops in Texas just change? l swear that 2 days ago the stated start/end times (wait, did l actually just write “end times” ?!!) were July 28, 2015 thru September 28, 2015. TODAY the dates are July 15 thru September 15 – two weeks earlier. These “dates”are probably a crock anyway, but l need a reality check..(28th-28th; 15th-15th; what’s next? 1st-1st???) please, Ure take on this date change- (l am leaving the Bullseye State in June, just in case)

  2. So on peak oil, yes there probably is a peak in oil that might come from the ground. How about the oil that Audi has created from air and water (http://www.gizmag.com/audi-creates-e-diesel-from-co2/37130/). Yes it requires energy, however, wind and solar which are sporadic in production can be utilized when available and nighttime electricity production can be stored in the battery that oil is. It seems that it is the perfect battery for our current economy as the infrastructure is already here for it.

  3. If everything is looking so rosy in home and apartment construction why isn’t it reflected in lumber prices? Just Askin