Housing, Personal Incomes, BTC Projections

Hot off the press release:

NEW YORK, MAY 30, 2017 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in March, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 33-month high. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices came in at 5.2% and 5.9% annual increases, respectively, unchanged from last month.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Seattle led the way with a 12.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.2%, and Dallas with an 8.6% increase. Ten cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March 2017 than in the year ending February 2017.
The below charts compare year-over-year returns for Seattle and Portland with different ranges of housing prices (tiers). Upon tier level analysis from 2011 to present, both Seattle and Portland’s year over-year returns show housing prices in the high tier to be the most stable while housing prices in the low tier are most volatile.

And our favorite chart?

The real question is whether this is an Elliott 1 down, completing a 2 up?

Other Data:

As we told Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend, we are at the top of a trend channel in here so the most likely scenario is for a modest market pullback.  We continue to expect all time highs in August.

Tons of news this week, and we’ll get to this morning’s first batch after mentioning that ADP and Challenger job numbers will be out Thursday and the federal Employment Situation will be out Friday, so the new background could move things a good bit – especially if less than “high end of expectations” comes in.

That and the political mess in Washington where continued high-level leaks are ruining the Trump agenda.  Just the sort of thing we would expect the Obama “government in exile” to be promoting.

Let’s start with the real news first:  Personal Income and Expenditures:

“Personal income increased $58.4 billion (0.4 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $56.5 billion (0.4 percent) and personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.2 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in April and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.”

And for the nonsensical numbers?

“Personal outlays increased $56.4 billion in April (table 3). Personal saving was $759.1 billion in April and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.3 percent (table 1).”

In Europe,, the Eurostox 50 was down one third of a percent which would translate to down 8 on the S&P and down 66 (or more) on the Dow IF it carries over here.

Running Bitcoin’s Future

With BTC’s trading this morning in the 2,350 range, a number of readers have asked for our outlook on this modern-times Tulipmania equivalency.

Usually, I would toss in an unabashed pitch for subscribing to our Peoplenomics.com premium content, but you may have heard enough about that.

Instead, I will simply run a spreadsheet that was developed for subscribers a good while back.

Here’s the theory behind it:

When any stock, commodity, or currency is on a roll, it will oftentimes follow a set of “rules” about price behavior first observed by Ralph N. Elliott.  The Wikipedia background is more on track than I am likely to be this morning:

“In the early 1930s, Elliott began his systematic study of seventy-five years of stock market data, including index charts with increments ranging from yearly to half-hourly. In August 1938, he detailed the results of his studies by publishing his third book (written in collaboration with Charles J. Collins), entitled The Wave Principle. Elliott stated that, while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers. Soon after the publication of The Wave Principle, Financial World magazine commissioned Elliott to write twelve articles (under the same title as his book) describing his new method of market forecasting.[3]

In the early 1940s, Elliott expanded his theory to apply to all collective human behaviors. His final major work was his most comprehensive: Nature’s Law –The Secret of the Universe published in June, 1946, two years before he died.[3]

In the years after Elliott’s death, other practitioners (including Charles Collins, Hamilton Bolton, Richard Russell and A.J. Frost) continued to use the wave principle and provide forecasts to investors. Frost and Robert Prechter wrote Elliott Wave Principle, published in 1978 (Prechter had come across Elliott’s works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch; his prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s helped bring Elliott’s wave principle its greatest exposure up to that time).

There are also other analysts, such as Glenn Neely, that do not fully subscribe to Elliott’s wave theory, but have used it as a starting point to develop their own wave prediction methods.”

And one of those “other analyst types” is at the other end of your screen this morning.  What we have evolved is a combination of Elliott wave theory along with trend channel analysis, and a few other concepts (like aggregated market theory) to come up with “best reasonable guesses” about where markets will head next.

Now in the Master Index portion of the Peoplenomics.com site there is a spreadsheet called “brainamp.xls.”

A user simply puts in a starting point and the number representing the first Elliott high (or low) and the spreadsheet runs out the rest.  All you need to do is scroll down to see where the third wave should peak, then stand aside while a fourth wave (if there is one) evolves, and then enter for the fifth wav e conclusion.  And in this, once the target levels are reached, you back off.

All we need then are two numbers to forecast future history.

We see in a 2013-2014 zoom-in chart of BTCs here that the crypto was bouncing along in the $125 dollar range for a nice basing period.  Then it popped up to a (closing price basis) around $1,140.

That’s it.   That’s all we need to plug in because we are then told what should follow in Wave 2 (down), Wave 3 (up), Wav4 (down) and Wave 5 up to complete the bubble…er…run.

As you can see, the decline was more than 61.8% for Wave II down, but (this is where trend channels come in) once we saw BTC break over $400 and out of a price channel, we mentioned to subscribers that while we weren’t playing this (silly) game [except the money made is both spendable and taxable as gains] the next stop should be nearly 2,400.

Where do BTCs go next?

Here’s what the spreadsheet figures:

Or, to put it simply, to our way of thinking, a decent (tradable) pullback should arrive sooner than later and then there could be another decent run.  We’d expect that next high to come in late August approximately coincident to the all time high in the stock market we’re expecting around then.

This IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTING ADVICE.  What we do is theory and the only place we ever trade is in our personal account which I manage extremely conservatively.  You do with your money what you will.

But that’s a quickie on where the BTC’s could go but remember the world is fraught with uncertainty.  A move by a major Western government to roll from fiat/paper into cryptos would likely skew things higher while a major hack-attach and code to bust the block chain would tank all expectations.

Also remember that the numbers above are based on reasonable closing prices not intraday spikes.

If you hear the scurry of little mice scampering off about now, those would be the subscribers who are using the brainamp.xls because they know that once we hit a blow-off top and have an initial pullback (see chart here), it is a simple matter to put in the BTC high,  then the low of the first wave down, and from there it will give the number series fro the stair-step down could be in now.

Feel smarter now?

Leakers Need Jail Time

While the carefully orchestrated leaks continue around president Trump, we notice that Fox is reporting that no, Jared Kushner didn’t propose a “back-channel” to the Russians:  The Russians proposed it

The “government in exile” operation continues, however, and we’re mystified why the F.B.I. hasn’t started arresting people yet.  Then we’d find out who is orchestrating and oh, boy, won’t that be fun?

Still, the New York Times is trying to fan the flames by asking what was Kushner’s motive in meeting with a Putin ally?

Priebus Out?

That’s the buzz making the rounds at this hour.

Question is:  Was he a leak-source?

Free-Wheelin Texas

I’m still scratching my head at the bias in reporting on events at the Texas legislature.

Operation of the legislature was shut down by a rowdy group of protesters who don’t like Senate Bill4 which shuts off Sanctuary Cities.

The Texas Highway Patrol had to be called in…yet no arrests were made.

But now comes the hand-wringing part: A pro Sanctuary ban lawmaker is the target of liberal ire because he threatened to shoot another lawmaker.

The protesters disrupting the public order seems OK with press reports (like this one) but to defend in the face of perceived personal danger in a mob-like setting?  Well, we can’t have that, can we?

Comments

Housing, Personal Incomes, BTC Projections — 18 Comments

  1. I like BTC. What gets me is the technology of the Blockchain. Wall Street is moving in and trying to copy it for their own use. Also, it allows folks wherever they are located to send money to someone else wherever they may be located. It’s a way for folks in less developed countries to store and transfer value. You want to open a bank account without having to show an ID or explain why – BTC. Also the number of BTC is limited – it’s finite – there will never be QE.

  2. If you will the owner like Rothschild over the Federal Reserve System which makes money on the thin air would you allow the Bitcoin to survive or would you infiltrate it and make it part of your control because money is thin air and so is Bitcoin nothing none of it is tangible so what it’s doing is just creating a source for them but the thing that you’re disregarding is they own most of the stock market and everything else so if they invest in this they will have control over it because they have the majority of the shares and when they sell and bring it down and you sell because it’s going down they create those same things that they created before does that make sense to you that they would do that and allow Bitcoin plus you know hey eventually I mean they have the number and they have your bank account and all the sudden hate you just transferred a bunch of money over to a count that’s Anonymous which could be Bitcoin so they know you did it so now what are you going to do and then then the heat starts getting ferocious because I now know hey they have to take action against those who are surpassing their agenda

  3. George, why are you so down on bitcoin? Not everything is subject to Elliott waves, and bitcoins are not tulips. They will not flood the market or go out of fashion; they are a breakthrough technology, the sort of thing you have been lamenting as deceased.
    A lot of people knew we would never fly; others thought the motor car would never catch on; DEC head Ken Olsen in 1977 said no-one would want a computer in their home.
    Sure, a world-wide EMP event would stop it in its tracks, but that would also stop a lot of other activities we are used to these days but in the absence of that, the concept is brilliant so what’s not to like?
    There’s plenty of arguments made for both sides and I don’t know how many readers would have the time to go through the litany so I won’t even start but I have thought of one possible roadblock. Recently we have experienced a big slowdown in confirmations and it’s been blamed on congestion in the blockchain. I wonder if there isn’t some malicious entity with a big supercomputer that has its knickers in a twist over the inability to control and TAX what happens over the blockchain, and has decided to do a DDOS by generating millions or billions of “dummy” transactions and clog up the works bad enough to make the system useless. Now who would want to do that? You tell me, but I wouldn’t want any alphabet agency knocking down my door just because they got a mention, need I say more?
    At the crossroads, now we get to see how smart the blockchain developers are and how this congestion attack gets solved. So grab yourself a weiner and enjoy the show!

    • The reason they said negative on bitcoin is because if the powers-that-be don’t own it and regulate it well they’re not going to allow it in fact they’ll just come after you and say or either pass a law says no you can’t have this so there you go

  4. My space was first.
    Facebook made it big.
    Yahoo was first.
    Google made it big.
    Mercedes was first.
    Ford made it big.
    Ma bell was first.
    AT&T made it big.
    Xerox and ibm was first.
    Microsoft and apple made it big.
    Motrola was first.
    Samsung and apple made it big.
    Shine runners were first
    Nascar made it big.
    Colt and Remington emington were first.
    Springfield and glock made it big.

    Bitcoin was first.
    …? made it big.

    Me thinks Etheriam.

    • Why do you think Ethereum will exceed and outshine Bitcoin? What does Ethereum have that Bitcoin doesn’t or won’t? Just curious as I’m looking to buy some crypto currency.

      • because that’s endorsed by China but in the meantime Dash will override all of them unless they take up dashes new stance which protects. So who will win the one with the ship’s papers the one with the license and shipping articles clearances for a manifest because they’re not all on international law so we have Bill of ladings bill of health invoices logbooks and proof of ownership also certificate of registry crew lists clearance license in shipping articles so we can pair that with manifest and that show winner

      • Because it’s being recently somewhere somehow in some shape or form and BN reinforce by China and so once China starts buying it it should go up like crazy and a lot of people have already started investing in it yesterday so yes it’s already coming up that’s more than the stock market how old is Ariane went up 1719 percent and I haven’t looked at the the current stats but it’s going up and the other one that is rising is Dash because they have integrated some safety features that Bitcoin hasn’t so they have or are hindering arise course there’s people out there and it’s a well the powers-that-be in Federal Reserve Uncle allow that to happen but so long before they take over and buy into it and say hey now this is the Fed coin stead of the Bitcoin anyway that’s what this year’s all about and next year’s about who’s going to control the currencies and Russia and China are going against us and if it’s an artificial currency like Bitcoin I don’t know what to say except hey it’s going to be exciting

      • Etheriam has an masonic/ illuminati symbol for its tag. That is why.

        Just a hunch.

        Certainly not trading advice. But im going to buy some.

        All the big companies have masonic/illuninati tags/symbols.

        Plus, etheriam has been used to refer to currency in several movies. Which for the life of me i cant recal at the moment. I think one is alien resurrection. But i dont have the time to research it.

        Hi George! Been a while since i been to your place. Just popping in to see whats the ‘matter’.

        Of fact.

        0

  5. @ Tom Dockery

    It’s a bubble. When all the suckers have been wrung out it will pop or there will be a gradual repricing and lowering of expectations – just like other bubbles. If you got in either side of the top, you lose.

    Another issue is that money is looking for anywhere safe to go. People are beginning to actually feel and see the market manipulations going on, to the point that several investment companies have just shut down due to perceived risk via theft by the manipulators (clawback is a term worth googling). Investors are searching for hard assets. Most are leveraging this with mortgages, and further frothing the markets.

    As George has often pointed out, we are in ‘serial bubble’ territory – it’s the only way they can keep the Fed fiat ponzi going in the face of the debt tsunami they have created.

  6. With home ownership at decades’low,one may ask how can prices be increasing?The answer is: Many are being bought by out of town investors,keeping rents too damn high preventing those renting from affording mall prices and forcing them to shop at Dollar General,the only retailer opening rather than closing stores.The rise in personal income is going into fewer and fewer pockets. Break Big Real Estate and the economy will boom.

    • I have potential rentals that I’m reluctant to make available. Until the local, state, and federal(HUD) rules make it safe to rent your property to responsible people only, and to adults only if they’re not suitable for kids, there’s no reason to bother with all the risks.

      People need to take responsibility for themselves, their families, and their guests. Until then, rentals will always factor in the undue risk that the landlord assumes due to his limited freedom of action in selecting tenants, co-creating terms most favorable to both parties, creating proper agreements allocating responsibility, and having adequate recourse against those who fail to honor their word and contract.

  7. um, that fellow in texas who was a GOP guy, who called the cops on the illegals who were protesting? He was threatened by another legislator who said he’s “get him” on his way to his car!!! He merely said he carries and would defend himself. Would you do any less??? This is sort of biased reporting george, not your style at all!e.