Hell of a thing. Because, most unfortunately, in my work on long wave economics, we seem to be stuck right in the midst of a replay of the 1921 market drop and the subsequent rally that led to the blow-off high on September 3, 1929.
I have a pretty good idea of when that high will come. We’ll cover that for our www.peoplenomics.com readers tomorrow. But it is all kinds of fun to see the future even hazily compared to the rest of the lost-sheep.
Here is the chart which will no doubt be copied, cloned, and ripped off, which is why I don’t put a lot of material on the free site:
Futures are up another 160…and 200+ today should surprise exactly no one…not among Peoplenomics subscribers, anyway.
Tomorrow, we can start laying up dates, but the war cycle in the 1930s followed the Great Depression – and in many ways was the final tool to force the nation into recovery.
One of the tenets of long wave economics is that periodic massive destruction of human capital as well as infrastructure is required in order to set the groundwork for the next major economic advance.
The peculiar problem of the next global war is that it will likely have a terrible outcome since nuclear, genetic, and computer warfare (NGC) are likely to kill more people that have ever been killed in a spree, before.
What will likely drive it is the resource depletion issue. And that has quite a rhyme with events leading up to WW II. But this time, instead of people collecting aluminum and hoarding tires, look for software and critical elements like lithium and oil to be at the heart.
The good news is there is much time left to figure out the details of how to hedge this, but keep in mind there is an expiration date on humans, every bit as much is there is an expiration date baked into every continuously depreciating (fiat/paper) currency whose value is submit to whim and compound interest.
The horrific reality that no one else is talking about on the net right now is that the National Debt of Russia is a shade less than $246-billion. while the US National Debt is presently $18-trillion and it’s only less than $20-trillion because of fancy/slippery, marginally honest accounting footwork at the Treasury/Usury Department.
Put another way: The Russian debt-to-GDP ratio is about 18%. In other words, 18% of one year’s worth of Russian GDP would pay off every plug ruble of their debt.
In our case, the current debt-to-GDP ratio is about 101%. And when the debt ceiling gets raised in a week (or five) the debt ratio will move up to 102-104%…and as you can see, we never come in from that ledge.
That is why the US Federal Reserve is likely lying when they talk about “raising interest rates.” It may have a short-term salutary effect on the market (see the 1928-1929 period) but when all is said and done, the GDP collapses and we return to the basics of hard work, sharing, and working through the resource depletion mess.
Our only real fear is that one side in the upcoming collapse of the globalist troika is that one of the countries (US, Russia, China) COULD opt for the “war sooner than later” option.
That might mean that instead of a much longer build-up to global war, it could be actually moved forward (closer to the present) and that would be a real bummer.
Someone’s models besides the ones we run around here should be hinting that the time to take on the USA is NOT when we have a screaming market rally likely for the next year, or 18 months. But rather when spirits are low and heading lower. That clock, however, is constantly ticking, And what makes the “taking of America” key is our natural resource base, namely all weather agriculture and petroleum.
So if you are around in five or six years and you notice European descendants dying off from a genetic disease, remember where you first heard the approach considered.
If the USA was really smart on this border problem, we would be working with Mexico that offer them rebuilding aid and perhaps some property redistribution when this thing goes through.
The idea being that properly monetized, a natural disaster can be turned net positive – if you don’t weight the human suffering too heavily into the equation.
Give Mexico a recovery loan, have them create recovery jobs, and then to pay off the debt, have them build a wall?
Trumply, for sure, but it might work…
Defense Bill Veto
The partisanship never stops, does it? The Borderless in Chief has just vetoed the Defense spending bill because it doesn’t give him free enough rein. AND He says it has gimmicks. Which is rich, huh? When the other party puts spending earmarks on things, is that somehow different?
The Corporate duopoly rules, as always.
Shoving Ryan On Us
For the secret trade bill? Check. Open border guy? Check. Democrats endorsing him? Check.
Like this will keep him (or any other put-ups from the Obama wing of the GOP) from being a bad idea? Where’s my ViseGrips. A big enough lie, oft-enough repeated…
Another “Dual Citizenship IS BAD” Example
Yeah – familiar rant here. My position is pretty damn simple: The U.S. should eliminate ALL dual citizenship arrangements immediately.
Here’s a case of a “dual citizen” holding both US and Iranian passports doing a dirty deed.
Did we go to a special school to learn stupidity, or what? Ure an American or not. Pretty damn simple, ain’t it? No flags of convenience of any kind permitted should be the rule.
You’re either in the melting pot, or your loyal to something else…in which case, why should you vote here? Go there and vote.