Hi Ho War Cycle: Blow-Off Alert!

imageThe market this morning looks like the rally will continue.

Hell of a thing.  Because, most unfortunately, in my work on long wave economics, we seem to be stuck right in the midst of a replay of the 1921 market drop and the subsequent rally that led to the blow-off high on September 3, 1929.

I have a pretty good idea of when that high will come.  We’ll cover that for our www.peoplenomics.com readers tomorrow.  But it is all kinds of fun to see the future even hazily compared to the rest of the lost-sheep.

Here is the chart which will no doubt be copied, cloned, and ripped off, which is why I don’t put a lot of material on the free site:

image

Futures are up another 160…and 200+ today should surprise exactly no one…not among Peoplenomics subscribers, anyway.

Tomorrow, we can start laying up dates, but the war cycle in the 1930s followed the Great Depression – and in many ways was the final tool to force the nation into recovery.

One of the tenets of long wave economics is that periodic massive destruction of human capital as well as infrastructure is required in order to set the groundwork for the next major economic advance.

The peculiar problem of the next global war is that it will likely have a terrible outcome since nuclear, genetic, and computer warfare (NGC) are likely to kill more people that have ever been killed in a spree, before.

What will likely drive it is the resource depletion issue.  And that has quite a rhyme with events leading up to WW II.  But this time, instead of people collecting aluminum  and hoarding tires, look for software and critical elements like lithium and oil to be at the heart.

The good news is there is much time left to figure out the details of how to hedge this, but keep in mind there is an expiration date  on humans, every bit as much is there is an expiration date baked into every continuously depreciating (fiat/paper) currency whose value is submit to whim and compound interest.

The horrific reality that no one else is talking about on the net right now is that the National Debt of Russia is a shade less than $246-billion. while the US National Debt is presently $18-trillion and it’s only less than $20-trillion because of fancy/slippery, marginally honest accounting footwork at the Treasury/Usury Department. 

Put another way:  The Russian debt-to-GDP ratio is about 18%.  In other words, 18% of one year’s worth of Russian GDP would pay off every plug ruble of their debt.

In our case, the current debt-to-GDP ratio is about 101%.  And when the debt ceiling gets raised in a week (or five) the debt ratio will move up to 102-104%…and as you can see, we never come in from that ledge.

That is why the US Federal Reserve is likely lying when they talk about “raising interest rates.”  It may have a short-term salutary effect on the market (see the 1928-1929 period) but when all is said and done, the GDP collapses and we return to the basics of hard work, sharing, and working through the resource depletion mess.

Our only real fear is that one side in the upcoming collapse of the globalist troika is that one of the countries (US, Russia, China) COULD opt for the “war sooner than later” option.

That might mean that instead of a much longer build-up to global war, it could be actually moved forward (closer to the present) and that would be a real bummer.

Someone’s models besides the ones we run around here should be hinting that the time to take on the USA is NOT when we have a screaming market rally likely for the next year, or 18 months.  But rather when spirits are low and heading lower.  That clock, however, is constantly ticking,  And what makes the “taking of America” key is our natural resource base, namely all weather agriculture and petroleum.

So if you are around in five or six years and you notice European descendants dying off from a genetic disease, remember where you first heard the approach considered.

SuperCane

It’s called Patricia and it is about to solidly kick the booty of Mexico down south of Baja.

If the USA was really smart on this border problem, we would be working with Mexico that offer them rebuilding aid and perhaps some property redistribution when this thing goes through. 

The idea being that properly monetized, a natural disaster can be turned net positive – if you don’t weight the human suffering too heavily into the equation.

Give Mexico a recovery loan, have them create recovery jobs, and then to pay off the debt, have them build a wall?

Trumply, for sure, but it might work…

Defense Bill Veto

The partisanship never stops, does it?  The Borderless in Chief has just vetoed the Defense spending bill because it doesn’t give him free enough rein. AND He says it has gimmicks.  Which is rich, huh?  When the other party puts spending earmarks on things, is that somehow different?

The Corporate duopoly rules, as always.

Shoving Ryan On Us

For the secret trade bill?  Check.  Open border guy?  Check.  Democrats endorsing him?  Check.

Now comes the corporate-aligned Wall Street Journo with another my, ain’t he special article.

Like this will keep him (or any other put-ups from the Obama wing of the GOP) from being a bad idea?  Where’s my ViseGrips.  A big enough lie, oft-enough repeated…

Another “Dual Citizenship IS BAD” Example

Yeah – familiar rant here.  My position is pretty damn simple: The U.S. should eliminate ALL dual citizenship arrangements immediately.

Here’s a case of a “dual citizen” holding both US and Iranian passports doing a dirty deed.

Did we go to a special school to learn stupidity, or what?  Ure an American or not.  Pretty damn simple, ain’t it?  No flags of convenience of any kind permitted should be the rule.

You’re either in the melting pot, or your loyal to something else…in which case, why should you vote here?  Go there and vote.

Comments

Hi Ho War Cycle: Blow-Off Alert! — 9 Comments

  1. Allowing dual citizenship is a very bad idea, and many countries forbid the practice. While I don’t regard the bible as the final word on many notions – the concept that a person cannot follow two ‘masters’ is a very sound concept; how can a nation trust a citizen if the person holds dual citizenship and a conflict whether physical or even just philosophical comes into play?

    People came to this country to start new lives and while it is good to remember the past, one should not expect to remain beholden to former lands other than in memory!

  2. One flash point that was not covered specifically that could do us in, is the race card. Sooner or later there will be an event that will bring a segment of our society out into the streets and they will burn our cities to the ground. If I were to hazard a guess that would be it. Race war: The majority of either color neither wants nor approves of, but certain ptb are stroking the fires of anarchy, and evidently will not be satisfied until the blaze roars into an inferno.

  3. Like your website and news. One thing I don’t like: Free countries, i love free countries. When does a free country STOP its citizens from leaving? Isn’t that communism, fascism, etc., etc. Mexico is a free country, has a bad economy, and its citizens free to leave. Now, a wall like China, who is Communist, and North Korea is also, Communist, they like to control its borders. Free Countries need to remain free, unless you secretly want to turn Mexico into a Communist Country and hence, keep them behind the IRON Curtain. Let’s spread freedom and I agree with you, in economic ideas, but a wall will not solve the economics of Mexico and people entering, the problem is deeper than that. And you know it too.

  4. I agree Mike. I hold dual citizenship and consider it part of my prepping strategy. The day may come when “Ure” going to wish you had one too.

  5. George, Your comment on dual passports is a bit misdirected in my opinion. You sound like George Bush, “You are either with us or against us.” it should only be so easy. How about the 35 members of congress with dual Israeli and American citizenship. Those are the ones to go after but what about freedom of choice? If the ship sinks are you going down with it?

  6. While I totally agree on governmental office holders should not be dual citizens, I cannot see where it would make a difference in this case. Governmental office holders should also not be liars, traitors and thieves, but then the definition of ‘politician’ would have to be changed.

  7. George,
    Do you have any thoughts about the Shanghai Gold Exchange establishing a new physical gold price mechanism that will compete with London and the US Comex?
    Thanx, keep up the good work!

  8. George,

    I beg to differ with you on dual citizenships. I agree that those who hold them should not hold public office, and probably should not vote, but there are good reasons for such things when traveling and dealing internationally. Nations need a check on authoritarianism, and one of them is the right to leave. A passport should be a “shall issue” document. A nation can revoke or limit this and that’s just wrong(short of an arrest warrant). International travel is necessary sometimes for a complete life, as few countries can provide everything for self-actualization, and more than one citizenship can be a benefit to all, if handled properly. Countries do have a right to refuse entry to foreigners, and I agree with this.