Halloween: The Big Tipping Point is Here

Tonight is you-know-what. To keep your mind off the drudgery of it all, Google.com has an online video game up. You can tell the boss “I was just doing a work-related search…

Unless you happen to be Huma Abedin, in which case you might be worried about possible perjury charges as the scariest Halloween event: Since 650,000 emails have been found on estranged husband Anthony Weiner’s laptop, and because Huma allegedly swore all “devices” with emails had been turned over in Hillarygate, something wicked that way goes is a possibility.

Not that this will cause the ‘Merican public to grow suddenly smarter about what has been labeled by a former FBI biggy as “La Cosa Clinton.”

As to the hope that average I.Q. 100 America will wake up? LOL, oh do be serious…

Market’s in Limbo: Observing the Tip

No, Limbo is not a small country in Africa, but wait a few years. In the meantime, futures are about flat as the rest of the world considers the future of Globalism. Yeah, Donald Trump is not the issue, neither is the Fed meeting this week, nor is the Islamic re-conquest of Europe, although all of the above get blamed by shallow thinkers.

You have to go much, much deeper.

You see, in Iceland this weekend the Pirate Party made an impressive showing in an anti-globalism and anti-establishment turnout.

Elsewhere, the UofMiami Hurricane suggests “Nationalism presents a dangerous challenge to globalism.“ Danger did they say? No…just what we’ve been telling you forever.

Reality School of Finance Lecture

When you manufacture products, there is an economic cycle that kicks in when two countries have widely differing labor costs.

Take what was going on in the 1990’s. Labor in China was dirt cheap. US manufacturers fled. They offshored to China. If you doubt me, ask Apple (and Foxconn is it?) how it works.

Here’s the catch, however, when we start the clock:

When, over some period of years, the internal income of the “other country” – in this case China rises, then the advantage of “cheap labor” evaporates and Globalism comes to a natural end.

Oh-oh. This is not the kind of stuff highlighted in macro-econ textbooks, is it? Too damn simple and obvious.

The mechanics go like this: If the labor and raw materials costs are about equal, here or there, the advantage returns to the country closest to consumption because transportation costs are lower. Think back to our long-chain business models versus short-chain competitors.

Let’s say you live in Ohio, like my consigliere. If you buy an item made in China, the goods made in China a) go on a train ride to get to a Chinese port. Then they ride the Pacific in a container. Next, the container comes off in Los Angeles. Then it might get on a rail car and head to a distribution center in Chicago or Memphis. Then it gets UPS’ed to the end user or the retailer.

This is nowhere nearly as efficient as having the goods made in Ohio, where Amazon is doing their two-hour delivery experiment, remember? With the right manufacturing partner, and a scoop or two of business process engineering, Amazon could go “factory-direct” with a lot of product. Manufacturing at the speed of consumption which is a way cool concept. For that which isn’t easily automated this way, Amazon has 60,000+ stock-picking robots. This was all in a Peoplenomics.com report “Bezos and Bentonville: Barbarians at the Mall” a while back; it’s in the master index.

Zip forward to now: A New York Times piece by Binyamin Appelbaum calls it “A Little-Noticed Fact About Trade: It’s No Longer Rising.”

Good column, but missing are some of the further implicates: Namely that no matter how many sweet-heart (OK, and crooked, too) Trade Deals get rammed past the Fools and the Hill and the Lamest of Ducks, it still doesn’t change economic reality. And that remains that competitive standards of living are the only real basis of Global Trade. For 20-years we’ve called it the wage-rate spread… and it’s the ONLY reason there is global trade other than agricultural.

The rest of Globalism? Hype, shuck, and Jive (HS&J). Fact is when Chinese workers make as much on a purchasing power parity basis as Americans, there will be no more reason for trade. We are starting that Tipping Process.

Well, except on ugly secret: Globalism keeps a whole bunch of people employed. Employment is the power to tax…which is why the rush to monetize the LBGTQRSI sectors, the scramble to import social issues (errantly called refugees by people who can’t think) and it’s why National Healthcare is such a huge deal. Makes up jobs, capiche? Ditto Global Warming…more jobs, more control, less variance of thinking, more uniformity of politics, and so forth. Soft corporate dictatorship, with emphasis on the dicks.

Long supply-chain buiness models (LCBMs) are in the strategic interests of the PowersThatBe. It makes it possible to keep 50% more people working. These people handle systemic inefficiency and make up jobs – and income streams to be skimmed in the name of corporate profits. These cycle back to keep the rich and powerful….well, richer and more powerful!

Is you look at the existing model (ultra long-chain) (ULCVMs) or the short-chain (SCBMs) alternative, consider all the jobs that are created by going ultra long-chain.

The railroad cars, trackage, consolidators, and longshore crews in China. Then the ship builders, the financial end of having 90-days of float (*literally and figuratively) as ships cross, then the Port at Los Angeles (or over the viaduct to Long Beach). Then you have truckers, and rail crews in America. Break-bulk operations, distribution…it’s a whole comedy of long-chain bullshit.

Here’s the problem: Go factory-direct in America and what happens?

Understand this: China’s unit labor costs don’t have to come all the way up to 100% PPP (purchasing power parity, try to keep up) with the US because the systemic inefficiencies will wreck Globalism’s pitch long before parity. Higher fuel prices as rates rise will do it.

There’s more to it, however.

Remember: Robotics are coming down the road and they will eat half the jobs in America in the next 25-years.

Which reveals the Big Sleaze – like the TPP deal – for what it really is:

A way for Globalists to institutionalize systemic inefficiency in order to maintain their revenue controls and dominance.

Oh, yeah, one other thing: It’s happening right now…we have reached Globalism’s Big Tipping Point.

So now what?

Like any other math problem, there are only a few ways out of this, and it’s not hard to see them.

1. We can have a “limited nuclear war” with Russia. Welcome to the overnight “decontamination industies” and so forth.

2. We can attempt to limit start-ups in high consumption countries, like the USA in order to maintain the Ultra Long Chain Business Models.

3. We can go Short-Chain Business Models but that will blow up Globalism and its leaders.

Well, TPP will no doubt screw over domestic start-ups and War with Russia is the bogeyman du jour.

The only safe bet is that option three is not even on the table.

If it were, instead of futures being flat, they’d be down 3,000 points.

They’re not, so the Globalism advocates still believe that the Clintons will win and their fortunes will be secure. The FBI case is just another challenger, but that too will pass.

Halloween Data Point

Personal Income and Expense, hot off the press release (edited because we don’t have all day):

“Personal income increased $46.7 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $61.0 billion (0.5 percent).

Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

Personal outlays increased $59.7 billion in September (table 3). Personal saving was $797.8 billion in September and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.7 percent (table 1).

 

Tomorrow Fed Meeting starts, the non-rate decision will come Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern. In the morning the ADP job numbers. Thursday the Challenger Job Cut report and then the Big Kahuna, the Employment Fairytale on Friday.

With a repeat of the promises of shorter columns, put down that coffee after the Coping Section and go make some money. Someone’s got to bail this Titanic.

BTW

Comments welcome on the new logo/look to the site thanks to Chris Tyreman of www.thechronicleproject.org. Rediscovering history and doing create graphics design, the latter being lower in importance, of course.

Comments

Halloween: The Big Tipping Point is Here — 43 Comments

  1. New look is definitely dark, foreboding. Reminds me of some of the darker websites I’ve seen.

  2. On new logos-

    Looks very professional and ah … commercial. Does it reflect the suggestion the “Urban Survival” title of your shtick evokes? Not even a little bit. Well maybe a wee bit. there is coin in it after all.

    Frankly George, I don’t care how you decorate the place (As long as my adblocker continues to block flashing annoying ads that is. Oh, and a certain freeze dried company that had a condescending, jerk’s response to a question I had, years ago by now.). Ahem, I digress, I love your insights and I hope I die before you; so I don’t have to find another source.

  3. your new web look could be from BEYOND OUR GALAXY . Dang he’s almost gone UNIVERSAL, WELL he is light years beyond his time ,,, ha

  4. Well, regards the new Logo I agree with Anonymous. The new Logo is dark, scary and foreboding.

    My taste would be that we go back to the original Urban Survival mast head. That was well done, pleasing to the eye and happy.

    Perhaps the new Logo is a reflection of George’s current feelings. After all the world and our country both are going full speed down the crapper.

  5. This comment summarizes the Clinton Crime Family’s history: The Clintons blow through lives like a tornado through a trailer court. Today’s victims, Huma, Donna, James (Comey). Loretta. The bodies just keep piling up

  6. Logo looks good. I like the full moon hiding off in the corner.
    But, I come here for the content, not for pretty graphic titles. :)

  7. today’s quote from Bryce Lazy porch Garden
    How many seeds a day can you plant so where do you want to be in the city or country

    • If you plant one seed a day in one year you going to need a whole lot of room can you imagine one cucumber or watermelon or tomato plant that climbs a Vine or a being that takes at least 4 square feet square feet you will need a lot of room so do you want to be in the city or do you want to be in the country

  8. That op-ed by the pundit-wannabe college sophomore was like eating pillow stuffing. Not much there other than the bias-revealing headline. Nationalism “Dangerous”? Really? To George Soros maybe. [As if that’s a bad thing.]

    I had flashbacks to Carlin’s witty observation that educational standards have fallen so much that all you need to get into college these days is a freaking PENCIL!

  9. George, have you considered the possibility that the Deep State/PTB have upped their game in the era of The Conspiracy Theory? I’m thinking: now that everyone and his dog has got the knack of spotting the more obvious conspiracies, they have started playing one ply/level deeper. The first major example to my mind was Brexit, where the mass media i.e. the mouthpiece of TPTB where gunning for Stay, yet the outcome leaned to Leave. Now I don’t think in this era of Total Information that the PTB were caught off-guard by the outcome of the vote… By this token, it would follow that Leave was the outcome they wanted, they only manipulated it more subtly while appearing to favour the opposite.
    Nor do I think that the outcome of the US elections will be left to chance. As detailed so richly on these pages, an economic crisis is mathematically ordained – it’s only a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. It’s frankly amazing that they’ve managed to kick the can this far down the road without the firecracker inside going bang. Would they like the Establishment’s candidate, Hillary Clinton to take office and preside over the coming conflagration? I think they’d rather a caricature of patriotism, conservativism and constitutionalism be in the hot seat when this happens. As someone pointed out over the weekend: the bombs going off around the Clinton campaign are just too precisely timed and placed to be by chance – it’s like a controlled demolition. Even Wikileaks would appear to be part of this campaign.
    In short, we’re (still) being played, but at another level of abstraction?

    • This is what I’ve called from the start the “Brer Rabbit” operation where after reading the tea leaves of current populism they’ve demonized Trump to assure his victory Make sense?

    • oh, but wouldn’t it be great to have CAIN kill Abel all over again? I mean the USA is on its knees…

  10. Arsell, I lived in Texas only 10 years 2002-2012 but I can tell you that it is not always cold on Oct. 31. Average 1st frost date was not until 11-15. I recorded on 10-31-2010 low was 57 and the high was 84.

  11. Just my one penny worth here about the new logo –
    the darkish blue background coupled with the black lettering and everything else in the logo the same like colors — the combo kinda makes the title not stand out. Maybe make the background a touch lighter? And ‘the original’ almost disappears – maybe that is the intent?

  12. I’ve been an attorney for nearly 40 years and I’ve never heard of a Prosecutor making an announcement to say that they have no facts. Mike.

  13. As soon as news came out that the FBI was reopening the Clinton case, Google searches for a certain phrase went vertical.

    The phrase was: “Change Early Vote”!!

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/wow-fbis-hillary-announcement-searches-change-early-vote-skyrocket/

    Apparently you can change your early vote in these states: MN,WI,MI,PA,NY,LA.

    Just my quick check. Do your own research. I agree with George that early voting should never happen without a compelling reason. Sadly, NM is not on that list, and I know too many who have already voted for cankles.

    • Pity. Great comment until you closed with “cankles.” The name calling, lack of respect paid to strangers, Internet bravado, general crassness ails out country.

  14. Fake market fake dollar 98.6 not real at all puke spitt spuder role cover dead dopey bs reset required corruption clear out

  15. My opinion is that the new look is cleaner. The blue seems a bit bright, but that just may be my eyes being sensitive to that hue of color. Were this my site, I’d deepen the blue a tad bit.

    Interesting color choice, btw. Has a rather cool, dispassionate/disengaged feel to it, a reflection of the times we live in, maybe?

  16. …85 degrees in Texas on Halloween is incredibly warm, George. l have lived here for 64 years and end of October has traditionally been very cold… How can an intelligent man like you not have noticed the increases in temperature? lt’s a political ploy?? My electric bill tells me it is probably the lack of an ozone layer.

    • There have been a number of times the temperature has been this warm (+/-) at this time of the year. Currently the jet stream is relatively “flat” flowing across the US, and not dipping to the south (colder air). Only surface air masses are moving recently. Though the temperatures are not normal/average, the fact that there are irregular weather patterns is normal.
      The key word in global warming is “global”. You may be experiencing “texas warming”and normal ebb and flow of weather patterns.
      You only notice because its not normal,and that is the trap that global warming people use to try and “convince” people.

  17. Clif high said that there will be a political bomb shell on Friday that would grab the election and change the dollar.
    Hillary missing? Trump landslide! Deep State interference?
    Published on Oct 27, 2016

    • George and Cliff have had an obvious falling out that has not been directly acknowledged from either side (to my knowledge/memory anyway). Its apparently personal, and I won’t speculate, but I did like when they worked together.

  18. Interface is quite nice. I would note that the color palette (although appearing cold at first) is really a reflection of George’s shift from speaking from the Third Chakra (mental energy) to the Fifth Chakra (Communicating and speaking up). Henceforth more clarity and conciseness I suspect.

    • I like the color. If the chakra thing is true, perhaps I should put up a site of my own in orange.

  19. ….btw, weekend coffee shop convo beefore caffene kick in…..”what hoppen if shillary get inducted either before/after election but not after sworn in on jan. 20′

    will the electon be cancelled/potponed? does speaker on the house assume office?

    ???

  20. There is one alternative to globalism that you missed. According to inside whistleblowers, TPTB have decided on slow drip partial disclosure. As this progresses, they will be able to roll out “space” as the next big thing (already is but we are lied to about it). Musk and others will have a “boot up” on the public domain competition and Boeing can slowly reveal what they have already done as “something new”.

  21. although technically well done, it feels the same as gazing at a glass and steel skyscraper—rigid, harsh, cold