Hallelujah and Oil To Yah…

imageWelcome back to another fun-packed week here in the modern replay of the Roaring Twenties.

This week, we’re sure that you’re going to enjoy yourself because before you get another ass-kicking Greater Depression, you first need to have a sizeable blow-off top.  This is the pause the refreshes.

To do that you need falling commodity prices…and toward that end, we begin this morning’s Epistle with a reading from the Book of Goldman, where we discover their Old Testament (about oil going to $80) has been replaced with a new passage that mentions $40-something. .

I may have to send them a resume:  We’ve been nattering on about $35 oil (and maybe a spike into the high 20’s) for months now.  Nice to see the mainstream is figuring things out.  But just in case, repeat after me:

Roaring Twenties.

Just in case word from Goldpersons doesn’t move markets, we see further evidence of the current “It was the best of times…”   elsewhere.

Credit Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (posted on the Detroit Snooze site) for observing that while the price of gasoline is way, way down, the IRS has done something kind-hearted:  They have increased the auto used for business mileage allowance to 57.5 cents per mile.

Let me see…521-miles a month would pay for a $300/month car lease…194-miles per month would pay for insurance.  Drive 1,000 miles a month on 28.5 gallons of gas is only $60, so let me see here…$472 for a thousand miles, so with tires and brakes, IRS is about right…toss in Triple A and a breakdown or two and it’s spot on.

TurboTax and others will be using 56-cents for 2014 returns, but drive like hell, keep a log explaining how it’s business and mileage and dates, and tah-dah….next year.

Still, with oil dropping to $46.71  $46.50 in the pre-open,  a likely 1.8 to 1.9% year-on-year inflation number for the past 12-months when the CPI comes out Friday, and Dow futures up 25, I’m sure you can appreciate why we’ve decked the halls with bonds and jollies this morning.

Sure, sure, a planet where Goldman says cheaper oil, where IRS is generous and where gasoline prices nationally are down to $2.13 a gallon seems like we’re waking up into a dream state, but that’s the point don’t you see?

Roaring Twenties…get used to it.  The run-up from 1921 to the September 3, 1929 peak was more than five times.  We’re around three times now.  Given that the low in 2009 was 6,627, or so, that could press the final Dow blow-off to maybe 30,000-something.

It won’t, of course, but the final capper should be amazing…so stand by to be amazed.  When the public figures out earnings are a better deal than savings (where they ain’t payin’ diddly, then the public will come back in, prices will rise, and by 2018 Depression will be global.

The further good news (such as it is) will be that the Final War could be pressed out as far as 2022-2025.  The bad news is that allows plenty of time for genetically selective bioweapons to be perfected.  You do understand the reason  SARS only killed Hahn Chinese, for the most part was….naw. 

Forget I said anything.  Just gimme an Amen! and a Hallelujah:  For it’s written in the Book of Goldman and in IRS regs that things will get better.

We got a lot of bigger fools to suck back into this thing.  Unless the bubble pops sooner…

Obama Finally Ends US Moral Leadership

Let’s see:  3-million people were marching in this weekend and world leaders were showing up right and left – 40 or more –  to hold hands and march against the lunacy of Islamic terrorism.

Care to guess which country with how many wars in the sandbox was missing?

Yep: No sign of Obama, no sign of Kerry and you wonder why I keep rubbing salt in the wounds over Obama’s “peace prize?”

We had a chance to stand united with Europe and to shun Muslim inhumanity and we blew it.

We no-showed.  Low-level folks don’t cut it.

If you find yourself questioning the notion of “representative government” – welcome to the club.  This kind of behavior is not representative of my feelings, nor I suspect is to be representative of your feelings, either.

Even Eric Holder  who was already in town in Paris couldn’t be bothered.  Another fellow I don’t particularly care for, thanks. 

In the news business, you develop a sense – gut feelings about people – over time.  Obama, Kerry, Holder, Hillary, Harry, Nancy….the lot. 

I hate it when my gut turns out right, again.

Although I’m sure some Obama apologist will argue “we didn’t to offend anyone.”

Right, Lord Chamberlain.  Except sometimes you gotta do what’s right and we didn’t.

Laughably, John Kerry will show up Thursday

No point rushing now, John.  Opportunity cost, dude.

Cuba Release

There have been 53 political prisoners released by Cuba as part of a normalization plan.  We’ll just hold back a bit of celebrating the Obama administrations move on this one.  I somehow fear they will find a way to botch this, too.

Might make a great retirement spot, if they move it along fast enough…

Did They Bring Pizza?

The SpaceEx delivery has arrived at the ISS.  I wonder if anyone in space reads Urban?

Written by a space cadet, you’d think…

More after this…

Comments

Hallelujah and Oil To Yah… — 6 Comments

  1. I’m really impressed with what Elon Musk is doing. His ideas about reusing the spacecraft are extremely good and probably only realistic with the rise of computing power to control the landing.

    A thought experiment. He says his fuel cost were around $200,000. Ok. The problem with single stage to orbit is that you can only get 1% into orbit some say. Ok. So what’s 1% of a billion pounds? 10,000,000 lbs. What if you could only get .1% into orbit? that’s still 1,000,000 pounds. Even if you get only .01% to orbit it’s 100,000 pounds. From this site I got a formula for cost of fuel taking into account the mixture ratio.

    http://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=112657

    From the site,”…Oxidizer/fuel mixture ratios are usually stated in terms of volume, not mass. The price per ton of propellant is (R×Mo×Po+Mf×Pf)/(R×Mo+Mf) with R being the volume mixture ratio and Mo/Mf and Po/Pf being the molecular weights and price/ton of oxidizer/fuel respectively…”

    I calculated,
    Thus the price O2/CH4 propellent is ((3.5×32×20)+(16×500))/((3.5×32)+16)=$80/ton

    so the price O2/CH4 propellent is $$80/ton/2000lb/ton = 0.04 lb.

    Prices of spot LNG climbed to about $920 a ton and I used a higher price for liquid oxygen.

    so (R×Mo×Po+Mf×Pf)/(R×Mo+Mf)
    ((3.5×32×20)+(16×920))/((3.5×32)+16)= $132.5 a ton, so $132.5/ton/2000lb/ton = 0.07 lb.

    so 1^9 lbs. x $0.07 = $70,000,000 per billion pounds rocket fuel

    Let’s say we can get the fraction to orbit at 0.5% for 100,000 lbs. to orbit.

    so 1000,000 pounds to orbit = .005( fuel)

    100,000/.005 = 20,000,000 pounds

    20,000,000 pounds x $0.07 lb. = $1,400,000.

    Yes I know I’ve only counted fuel. No spacecraft but the craft is mostly fuel Let’s say we double the fuel cost to make up for the craft and we still have $2,800,000 for a 40 million pound take off to get .25% to orbit. Put some huge long legs on the spacecraft and at these cost you could make money carrying 100K freight to anywhere a landing strip could be cleared.

    What about the spacecraft cost. Well at this size we can mostly use steel. Stainless on the bottom. Just circulate fuel on the base when coming down. It would be so big it would have very low heating rate. Let’s look at oil tanker cost. Should get us a ball park figure.

    In 2005, the price for new oil tankers in the 32,000–45,000 DWT, 80,000–105,000 DWT, and 250,000–280,000 DWT ranges were US$43 million, $58 million, and $120 million respectively.

    so 45,000 DWT =100,800,000 lbs. @ US$43 million = $0.43/lb.

    so 250,000 DWT =560,000,000 lbs. @ US$120 million = $0.22/lb.

    so 40 million lbs. x $0.43/lb. = $17,200,000

    so 1^9 x $0.22/lb. = $220,000,000

    so musk falcon (28,990 lb) to low Earth orbit x 100@1% = 2,899,000 lbs. x $0.22/lb. = $637,780

    so fuel $0.07 lb. x 2,899,000 lbs. = $202,930.00 x 28,990 lb = $7/lb.

    Just a thought and super rough numbers but I think they could be within 100%. So you could do something like this with twice the numbers I stated. The bigger the cargo and ship the easier it would be to get the numbers right.

  2. Let me repeat myself – “bear baiting” is dangerous when the bear, with teeth and claws, has the ability to exact vengeance or revenge for being tormented. (you can read that loud disparaging disrespect for a peoples religion or culture. no, you don’t have to agree with it, you don’t have to like it, but if you insist on poking the bear – don’t be surprised when you bleed.) They (the Muslims) don’t like our culture or beliefs (although they seem quite ready to live within it – if they can get out from under their tyrannical Imam’s control), and they seem willing to die for their culture and belief – at least some of them – while the rest of them are willing to weep and wail when they die, the dance for joy at their ‘wins’, like 9/11. We, (Western Culture, and to some minor degree ‘Christianity’) is not willing, nor do they really believe in their culture or religion, and are not prepared to die for it – although killing those on the other side is not out of the question – now if they were to attack wall street – and the bankers – which is what 9/11 was really about – watch the war machine crank up and the money and the blood pour into it – because THAT is what is important – MONEY, Wall Street and Banking investments and interest – certainly not the sovereignty of the nation – watch the borders – or even our jobs – check the tags and stamps on most everything you purchase – China.

    • Reallyh a go9od idea EXCEPT:
      1. Our old Beech is paid for
      2. Price of the new one would kill us
      3. Airplanes are delicate (as in flight controls)

      Given how humans are dickweeds (at least enough to matter are) I don’t think I would trust my a/c to sit outside Safeway while shopping, let alone in a casino parking lot… just saying

  3. The Wikipedia page for Project Coast no longer has information, and all the other Google searches are different now. Only Activist Post (June 2013) addresses it. From what I remember, the technology was developed in South Africa and sold to Israel some years ago.

  4. I believe the bioweapon you’ve referred to is Project Coast. And since you’re a Fringe fan, seemed to be the subject of the episode entitled The Bishop Revival.