This week, we’re sure that you’re going to enjoy yourself because before you get another ass-kicking Greater Depression, you first need to have a sizeable blow-off top. This is the pause the refreshes.
To do that you need falling commodity prices…and toward that end, we begin this morning’s Epistle with a reading from the Book of Goldman, where we discover their Old Testament (about oil going to $80) has been replaced with a new passage that mentions $40-something. .
I may have to send them a resume: We’ve been nattering on about $35 oil (and maybe a spike into the high 20’s) for months now. Nice to see the mainstream is figuring things out. But just in case, repeat after me:
Just in case word from Goldpersons doesn’t move markets, we see further evidence of the current “It was the best of times…” elsewhere.
Credit Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (posted on the Detroit Snooze site) for observing that while the price of gasoline is way, way down, the IRS has done something kind-hearted: They have increased the auto used for business mileage allowance to 57.5 cents per mile.
Let me see…521-miles a month would pay for a $300/month car lease…194-miles per month would pay for insurance. Drive 1,000 miles a month on 28.5 gallons of gas is only $60, so let me see here…$472 for a thousand miles, so with tires and brakes, IRS is about right…toss in Triple A and a breakdown or two and it’s spot on.
TurboTax and others will be using 56-cents for 2014 returns, but drive like hell, keep a log explaining how it’s business and mileage and dates, and tah-dah….next year.
Still, with oil dropping to
$46.71 $46.50 in the pre-open, a likely 1.8 to 1.9% year-on-year inflation number for the past 12-months when the CPI comes out Friday, and Dow futures up 25, I’m sure you can appreciate why we’ve decked the halls with bonds and jollies this morning.
Sure, sure, a planet where Goldman says cheaper oil, where IRS is generous and where gasoline prices nationally are down to $2.13 a gallon seems like we’re waking up into a dream state, but that’s the point don’t you see?
Roaring Twenties…get used to it. The run-up from 1921 to the September 3, 1929 peak was more than five times. We’re around three times now. Given that the low in 2009 was 6,627, or so, that could press the final Dow blow-off to maybe 30,000-something.
It won’t, of course, but the final capper should be amazing…so stand by to be amazed. When the public figures out earnings are a better deal than savings (where they ain’t payin’ diddly, then the public will come back in, prices will rise, and by 2018 Depression will be global.
The further good news (such as it is) will be that the Final War could be pressed out as far as 2022-2025. The bad news is that allows plenty of time for genetically selective bioweapons to be perfected. You do understand the reason SARS only killed Hahn Chinese, for the most part was….naw.
Forget I said anything. Just gimme an Amen! and a Hallelujah: For it’s written in the Book of Goldman and in IRS regs that things will get better.
We got a lot of bigger fools to suck back into this thing. Unless the bubble pops sooner…
Obama Finally Ends US Moral Leadership
Care to guess which country with how many wars in the sandbox was missing?
Yep: No sign of Obama, no sign of Kerry and you wonder why I keep rubbing salt in the wounds over Obama’s “peace prize?”
We had a chance to stand united with Europe and to shun Muslim inhumanity and we blew it.
We no-showed. Low-level folks don’t cut it.
If you find yourself questioning the notion of “representative government” – welcome to the club. This kind of behavior is not representative of my feelings, nor I suspect is to be representative of your feelings, either.
Even Eric Holder who was already in town in Paris couldn’t be bothered. Another fellow I don’t particularly care for, thanks.
In the news business, you develop a sense – gut feelings about people – over time. Obama, Kerry, Holder, Hillary, Harry, Nancy….the lot.
I hate it when my gut turns out right, again.
Although I’m sure some Obama apologist will argue “we didn’t to offend anyone.”
Right, Lord Chamberlain. Except sometimes you gotta do what’s right and we didn’t.
Laughably, John Kerry will show up Thursday
No point rushing now, John. Opportunity cost, dude.
There have been 53 political prisoners released by Cuba as part of a normalization plan. We’ll just hold back a bit of celebrating the Obama administrations move on this one. I somehow fear they will find a way to botch this, too.
Might make a great retirement spot, if they move it along fast enough…
Did They Bring Pizza?
The SpaceEx delivery has arrived at the ISS. I wonder if anyone in space reads Urban?
Written by a space cadet, you’d think…
More after this…