Gross Domestic Product and the M2 Velocity Crater

You know you’ve been out on the ranch too long when “fun” is an economic news release from the government.

But it’s sort of like a New York Times crossword puzzle…you play them for the challenge of figuring a few things out.

So this morning’s test in referential lingo goes like this…

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent (revised). The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 10). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2015. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Oh, sure, you could go look in the detail sheets that come out with the press release and you could look up the actual current dollar GDP.

Even worse, as we explained to Peoplenomics readers Wednesday, when you divide the GDP by the amount of M2 Money in circulation, you get something called Velocity of Money,  which was at an all time low of 1.501 in Q1 of this year.

As to current GDP: “Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — increased 4.4 percent, or $191.2 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,840.5 billion.”  $17.84 trillion is it?

Seasonally adjusted M2 is what for June?  $11,981.9.

Which makes (drum roll, please) Velocity of money what?  1.488

YES!!!  Just as I predicted – a new and deeper crater Velocity of Money!

Yes, the turnover of money is far, far worse than it was during the Great Depression.  Which is why the economy sucks a bunch.

Is “suckier” a word?

But as long as the happy talk choir keeps singing, and as long as there is enough fluoride in the water to dumb us all down enough, we will just keep getting on the treadmill of life and wonder what all the commotion is about.

When the Janet Speaks

You can skip most of it, except this part:

“When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Huh? Inflation of 2%? 

Let me ask you, what at the two biggest line items in your family budget?

For most people it’s housing and food.

According to the bunglers of Labor Statistics, food is up Year-On-Year 1.8%.  And the cost of shelter is already up 3%.

Which is why – when food goes through 2%, probably in the report that comes out on August 19th, the Fed will have the reasons clear as daylight to raise in the September meeting, which we have planned for the week following the Landry’s and Ure’s returning from our Peoplenomics cruise.

In fairness to the Fed (I’m trying to turn over a new leaf), most of the reason that the cost of living is only up one tenth of one percent overall is that energy prices suck and more rig laydowns are coming.

But as Ure’s truly is quick to point out:  You can’t serve unleaded for dinner, and you can sleep under a gas station.

Janet, et al, are a little slow figuring these things out, but we already know fall is the high likelihood period and have been touting it for four or five months so, so try to not look surprised when we turn onto that branch of the future.

Riots to Come?

The murder indictment of a University of Cincinnati police officer for the killing of a black man, Samuel Dubose, is not likely, in our view, to keep the lid on boiling social disgust with excessive government  exercise of power in wrongful ways.

What’s interesting, really, are two things:

This demonstrates the value of cops wearing video cameras because it results in murder indictments when there is abuse of power.

Secondly – and more important perhaps – is the notion that there is a new wave of blowback on excessive government that is taking place in the country.

You can see it locally – like the formerly non-responsive County government on my road paving issue.

You can see it in national politics – where Donald Trump is not yet fading because people are pissed about the border, sanctuary (*break the law) cities and so on.

And you can see it in international relations as well.

To me, that’s a pretty interesting – and broad social wave – that’s warming up.  It is uniting black, white, poor, middle class, and politically vulnerable in new and interesting ways.  More in the Coping section in a minute.

But just go into a soft martial arts focus and look at the headlines.  Is the take-back of government finally (and long last) really getting underway?

Washington is Sinking

But for another reason, too.

Go read the story in the Standard Daily about how Washington is built on supersaturated land (and fill) and might within a century be underwater.

No, I mean besides financially, doggonit.

No that this really comes as “news.”

The astute observer already knows this is why the spies and moving to high ground around Denver, except for the NSA is is down in the Provo area where the local airport elevation is 4,497 feet (KPVU).  Except the moat around the snooper computers is higher than that, but you see the drift.

The good news is that if the slow migration to Denver and high ground continues, maybe some day the Midwest will not be “fly over country.”

If will be jet ski through country.

Best Car Deals for School

Kelly Blue Book is out with their assessment of best back to school cars for kids:

image

Forget I said “kids” – it’s a reasonable list for anyone.  ‘Cept the Don and the Buff, maybe.

Home Rates Sliding

Quick!  Refi!  This week’s rates from BankRate.com

NEW YORK, July 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — Mortgage rates dipped again this week, with the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 4.09 percent, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey. The 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.22 discount and origination points.

The larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate dropped back below the conforming 30-year fixed mortgage to a three-month low of 4.05 percent, while the average 15-year fixed mortgage ticked lower to 3.27 percent. Adjustable mortgage rates were mixed, with the 3-year ARM nosing higher to 3.27 percent and the 5-year ARM stepping back to 3.22 percent.

Ain’t press releases fun?

Adobe App App

This is interesting, too:

Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced the general availability of Adobe Digital Publishing Solution (DPS), the next generation of its ground breaking Digital Publishing Suite, pioneering new ways for brands to deliver high-impact content to mobile apps.

Brings to mind an UrbanSurvival app that will nag you about the economy.  Like CB Radio, at some points to we hit apperation?

And in the Tech Swamp

Who would have known this one?

ALBANY, New York, July 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ —

According to a new market report published by Transparency Market Research “Tunable Diode Laser Analyzer Market – Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2015 – 2021,” the tunable diode laser analyzer market was valued at USD 280 million in 2014, which is expected to reach USD 548.8 million by 2021, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2015 to 2021.

Tunable diode laser analyzer (TDLA) is relatively a new technology in the measuring instruments segment.

Just the right tool for my friends in the photobiomodulation industry (light medicine) which could end the expense of light box mixing… see here for more ideas

See, ain’t this useful?

Comments

Gross Domestic Product and the M2 Velocity Crater — 3 Comments

  1. better watch out, your next friendly neighbor developer could open a trailer park, some landlords already do get stipends on prisoners of all races…then you’ll learn what real property value loss is…

  2. You must be solid upper middle class in wealth. I mean, neither I nor my parents EVER owned a new car. The closest I have gotten is two years. Not complaining, just stating. I remember reading 25 years ago in a financial advice newsletter to always buy a two year old car because of less depreciation. That never applied to my family or me. We drive them till the wheels fall off. Look at how the Cubans have kept their 50 to 60 year old American cars running.

  3. I’m still waiting for someone to separate out the “goods” – and the “services”. We KNOW that we’ve become a servant society – mostly selling foreign manufactured goods.