This Glorious Blow-off: Updating the 1929 Replay

Ever since the Housing Bubble bottom in 2009 we have suspected that this will be the “big one” of this lifetime for all around to see it.  That’s because none of the excesses of the financial system have been resolved, as an inspection of the Dollar’s purchasing power will reveal.

While you’ve been sleeping (which for most people lasts a lifetime) the Fed and CONgressoids have conspired to spend more money than they take in.  The way this POS economy has been kept alive has been by watering down the purchasing power of money by the same amount as the Gross National Theft.

You can see using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator (which we take to be honest enough) that the Dollar has 3-cents on the dollar of purchasing power compared with what it had in 1913 when the bankster coup took place.

(continues)

Now, we interest rates basically unable to rise – due to a host of factors including but not limited to falling (real) consumer discretionary and such – we are wandering through a replay of the events of the Roaring Twenties and then we shall slide into the Depression Replay.  On a chart, our course looks like this:

The stock market is not alone.  The constant dilution of purchasing power shows up everywhere.  And to us, one of the most evident analogs to Tulip Mania is the current headlong rush into crypto currencies.

Semi-parabolic blow-off tops are difficult for the SMS/spewflake crowd to see.  The reason is simple:  They haven’t walked the Earth long enough to draw back a ways from the current flow of spew and look at the longer views where real economic truth becomes “slap-upside-the-head” apparent:

That little yellow area?  Oh, that’s when we told our Peoplenomics subscribers (January-March when around $400) “Ya’ll go have fun in BTCs…we’ll just watch.”

With BTCs trading in the $2,600 range today, that may seem foolish, but despite the HS&J (spewflake note: hype, shuck, and jive) BTC gains really are taxable income.  Other cryptos seem to be enjoying the same kind of mania, too.

Breathless True Believer are telling us “…governments are goinog crypto, too!”  But we’ll just wait.  They certainly thought of basing the national budget of Holland on Tulips back in 1634, but near as I’ve found in the textbooks, the guilders remained.

Still, the manias are marvels to behold and (you may find this hard to believe) this should – in our work – just be the start of the MIND BLOWING TOP that should reach its pinnacle in August.

Have fun.

We’re waiting for that “last train out” which is where we will ride to the summit.  But instead of holding on for the top, we plan to get off the train a bit ahead of the crowd and load up on the short side.  As the “weak hands” come in (esp. people who bought into the Iraqi Dinar deal might be a useful indicator) we will quietly side with Big Money and load up on long-term short positions.

All of the problems that seem fairly small today are really MUCH larger problems in the long haul.

Congress is likely to stampede into a tax cut of some kind, no matter how small.  The Special Prosecutor might look beyond Trump at you-know-who and tell us how that Uranium deal and contributions deal worked…

Then we have Kid Korea who is sharpening up while the U.S. is quietly moving materiel into position for what could be the resumption of the Korean conflict; never settled, just found to a draw half a century back.

Robotics are coming, too.  Business process re-engineering is reducing the need for humans as we speak.  And demand for housing and new family formations is looking sketchy since the mass marketing of alternative sexualities has reduced further population prospects.

All of these set up the makings of a Depression.  That’s because capitalism works GREAT when there is growth in the mix.  But don’t look now:  Growth of the generic type is an endangered species.

In one iteration of our work, that 371 point downer last week was a solid echo of the 10/29/1929 crash.

Real business people aren’t going to wait till the iPhone 8 comes out this fall.  A loaded iPhone 7 is nearly $1-kilobuck.  Sends the same texts, has Siri in it for the dial and maps…My point being a new phone turn isn’t going to save this pig of an economy.

Our message for this morning is simple:  While logic would dictate that the market should be taking a bit of a pause prior to the holiday, we may have misjudged the levels of euphoria and the pre-holiday rally could scream upward.  Spewflakes and their texts about instant riches in crypto markets do things like this.

At last they did the last time around, though the comparisons must be adjusted for factors like Saturday trading back then.  But who knows?  Maybe this mania will arrive again, as well.

Armed with our longer view of history we’ll continue investing in the things that matter.  Rock dust, lime, sand, vermiculite, hydroponics gear, and yes, heritage seeds from this year’s crop for next year.

It may be time to again ask the question posed by poet/songwriter Bob Dylan in about 1963:

And what did you hear, my blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear, my darling young one?
I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin’
Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world
Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin’
Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter
Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley
And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard
And it’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall.

Gravity ultimately runs markets and what goes up….We’re nearly to the time when standing back to see the bigger picture will chart the course of your remaining days.

But pay me no mind, we still have some months to Let the Good Times Roll.

Futures are up another 60.  Yee haw!  (for now).

Miscellaneous

While saving your financial butt would seem like the ONLY thbing that matters in this foxtrot uniformed world, it seems the MainStreramMedia/YellowJournos think elsewise.

I don’t think, for example, that first lady Melania Trump’s religious choice, for example, is headline material.

But then neither is this:  Jimmy Kimmel Mocks President Trump’s Pope Visit: ‘Is Nothing Sacred?’

Instead, a more thoughtful person mighty pick something like Jimmy Kimmel Mocks President Trump’s Pope Visit: ‘Is Nothing Sacred?’  as reason Houstonians may be about to ‘give tanks” so to speak.

Short Column?

No, not really.  A lot of our readers, though, are hitting the road for the first day of summer.  Not that we don’t know when the solstice is, but we’re mindful of How Memorial Day Went From Somber Occasion to Summer Celebration.

A Trend to Watch

This is more directed at our Peoplenomics.com subscribers where we have outlined the business model migration path to taking the privately owned car model and turning it into a government/industry owned model.

Some Uber and Lyft Riders Are Already Ditching Their Own Cars.

As prices go up, ownership will go down.  As insurance claims go down, self-driving car software updates will become more expensive.  And, in the end, the Big Game will be to make your annual auto safety inspection into a “Software Update Required” check…because you aren’t in the land of the free, home of the brave, no matter what the back story to Memorial Day is.

We live in the Land of the Business Model, Home of Raw Ankles.

Drive safely…and put carefully.

Comments

This Glorious Blow-off: Updating the 1929 Replay — 18 Comments

  1. Finally, it seems the entire GOP party and their state run media is starting to crumble like the Walls of Jericho. Advertisers are canceling their contracts with Fox and Trumps personal towel boy, Sean Hannity. It’s about time. Like Trump, everything that comes out of this wind bags mouth makes me want to puke.

    Advertisers are catching on. Who would want to be associated with this Alex Jones wannabe? At issue is a furor that started to swirl around Hannity’s recent promotion of a conspiracy theory about the death last summer of Seth Rich, a DNC staffer who was murdered in Washington, D.C. last July in what local police have stated they believe is a botched robbery. Despite cease and desist orders from the family, Hannity continues to tweet about it. As a result, advertisers are jumping ship.

    Also high tailing it out of Dodge are GOP politicians that supported Trump. GOP seats in Montana and Georgia are at risk and if either one of those seats fall to a Democrat, you will see more and more Republicans speak out.

    This is just plain and simple common sense. Trump is proving the point I have been making since day one. He is possibly the dumbest human on planet Earth. He has been given this “Gift” of being President and he is doing everything, and I mean everything to totally screw it up. Every time he opens that smallish round pie hole of a mouth, he ruins the reputation of this great country. We are the laughingstock of the entire planet and that ticks me off to no end.

    The only success he has had is in his post election victory tours where he is drawing crowds full of people that have a higher than average propensity to start a Bar Fight.

    Not only should Trump be impeached, but if he wants to draw a really YUUUGE crowd, a Crowd like no other, the biggest crowd in the history of crowds? Then, I suggest after he gets impeached, there should be a public flogging of him in the middle of the the largest outdoor space in this country. There would be denying then of the size of THAT crowd.

  2. yeah oh no is George trying to say capitalism is not the best thing for a stable Society and if that’s what you’re stating what would be the basis for a stable Society

    • Oh I
      And still LISTENING to MARTIN DENNY as I communicate .
      Exotique boss’s nova

      • We don’t cut off Bruce’s beers, but his posts are limited to 3 a day

      • Oh and I forgot to mention about an acre of blueberries and blackberries do you know how much they get six ounces of blueberries is 2 – $3 wow an anchor will half an acre brings in a lot of money you better rethink your structure about what you want to do and what you don’t want to do yes George that would be a good one for you grow blueberries 6 oz to the three bucks can’t beat that all you got to do is go out and harvest them

      • Why is it George that anything that is contrary to your beliefs, you shrug it off as liberal. First, this is just a Steven Colbert comedy bit and has nothing to do with Apple. I got it off of Apple News, but could have gone straight to You Tube, or about a dozen streaming services and copied it there. And, since when is the worlds highest valued company and one of its biggest employers considered liberal? That so called liberal company has made me a ton of money since I have been buying over 15 years ago.

        Yesterday, when that egg head, Republican Greg Gianforte body slammed a reporter, Gianforte portrayed himself as the victim, with a spokesperson blaming the “aggressive behavior from a liberal journalist.”

        Again, is it a crime to be liberal? No, but with the embarrassing way the Republicans are acting, especially at the top, it should be a crime to admitting to be Republican. But here is the deal. Guardian journalist Ben Jacobs is not a liberal reporter. He is just a regular reporter doing his job and he asked a pretty good question.

        Castigating any reporter that asks a challenging question has become the new normal on the Trump Train. Trump started it when he said “I would like to punch him in the face” about a Trump protestor. He normalized violent behavior for both sides in that statement. Sad.

  3. George, once again, I walk away mystified. If our financial system’s “excesses” from the “CONgressoids conspir[ing]to spend more money than they take in” is such a huge problem to you, why are you so onboard with Trump’s adding $10 trillion to the national debt overwhelmingly by cutting taxes on the upper 2%? Not get your math. Mike.

  4. so….if Google “acquires” Uber…..will it become ‘Goober’ ??

  5. My motto is:

    Any economy that requires constant growth in order to survive will eventually do neither.

    The current economy is tied to both population growth and energy flow. More of both implies the bubble continues. Oil is not “forever” and I always wonder what happens then – when oil becomes harder to find and yet our 2020-expected 100 Mbpd demand and production occurs to help move us closer to eventual oil depletion.

    • Oil gets scarce go solar..we should be knee deep in accepting change.
      Instead our power companies rebellion at change trying to keep things as they are
      Those that are trying seem to have accepted the Tim Taylor the tool man’s approach by building huge power centers. Instead they should be looking at solar like a tree. Each leaf a solar collection unit spread out with it’s energy flowing in. Yet we build it backwards to the point that huge expensive infrastructure changes have to be made by a country that hasnt dealt with infrastructure upgrades since Truman..

      • And move south. Solar cannot heat homes at the BTU scale north of Virginia thru the Yukon. If we used wood to heat our homes, US and Canadian forests would be denuded in three years.

        I have solar. Those selling solar as a savior are those who own solar product companies. Many know it is not enough. My 8kw solar simply is supplemental but I need 800 gal of Propane annually.