As far as I know, George Soros does not subscribe to our www.peoplenomics.com newsletter. Yet there are reports this morning that not only is Soros short (betting markets will decline), but specifically he is concerned with the future of the European Union’s economic prospects.
There is some logic to Soros moves, which the Wall St. Journal reported included selling stocks and buying up gold miners.
For one, stocks are at never-before seen levels, or nearly so, and we’re about to go up (maybe) and fulfill one of our long-standing predictions around here, namely that we should continue with of buoyant market through summer until the election, but after that, whoever wins the election will be in an historical rhyme to the 1928 presidential election.
Unfortunately (for whoever wins, and not that it will matter much) the headwinds that are just around the corner for the economy will dwarf what anyone (except our subscribers and seems now Soros, too) can anticipate.
The problem, succinctly put, is a coming confluence of difficulties.
On the innovation side, the “smartphone revolution” is already showing signs of eating its young. I told you the other day that app use is down and what do we need apps for, if a phone call will do?
Still, the unseen reality (at least by most) is that the Internet has only begun to kill brick and mortar retails. Round two of that has just launched (if you know where to look) and we will feature that in Saturday’s Peoplenomics report this week. The working title of the article?
“Barbarians at the Mall.”
You will love it…unless you work in construction, own commercial real estate, are in retail sales, or…well, let’s just say it’s a long and impressive list.
The next problem is automation. I hope you saw the report the other day that half of the world’s working population could be displaced by robotics in the next couple of decades?
Then there is the collapse of manufacturing in general. Smartphone have made micro-housing rational. So what used to be a 2,300 square foot family home can be a 250 SF apartment where the occasional hookup happens. Kids? Who needs them?
But that does bring us to the Big Ugly about immigration that neither the Lefties or the Righties want to address: Without a LOT more young people entering the workforce, Social Security will be on the rocks sooner than anticipated. Unfortunately, the Fools on the Hill and the Chief Fool over on Pennsylvania, have not bothered to mention that econometric models are a better justification for unauthorized immigration than babble about “right thing to do…” which it is NOT when we are the very people who bombed the shit out of the Middle East turning on the refugee mess into Europe and here in the first place.
So. Soros is getting short. He’s probably early. Thanks to a pullback today, we will use a tiny Excel app our subscribers have access to called the “brainamp.xls” and assume that if we have just broken above trend, any pullback could be seen as a small Elliott Wave 2 being complete so we start Wave 3 up. Wave 1 up was the manic buying spree from February through April.
Knowing what we do, seeing Soros is getting short, we are at once pleased and frightened of what it means.
The politicians are babes in the woods, and they are only representing the leech class in the middle that benefits from too much regulation in America. If we had some manufacturing jobs left, it would be a different story. Or, if we had leaders who had the balls to say “Screw the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, we are going to tax inbound products to America at levels that will result in all international trade being net equal, so that imbalances do not arise and drive national fortunes onto the rocks, while populating the wallets of the money changers.”
Even Donald Trump can’t seem to articulate this reality. But the Obamanistas and Hillaryites see it – and when you hear World leaders are afraid of Trump and other such pap, it is because Trump is a Wharton-trained economics grad who has his own billions that attest to the notion that he does understand money.
Being a charitable fellow, I would like to extend an offer to George Soros for a subscription to Peoplenomics at a very special price. FREE on the front end. I justg want 10% of the trading profit he makes when things hit the fan in late 2017 as we’re forecasting.
Not that he needs our advice: He’s already preparing. And he, like us, will perhaps take advantage of the stupid US tax laws that provide for reduced income tax for “long term capital gains.”
Situations, and mornings, like this force me to ask very difficult questions. The main one though goes something like this:
“Is America a really, really Great Country, of just the hollowed our leftovers better described as a Really, Really Stupid Country.”
I look at the three musketeers running for the White House and I think I know the answer.
Thursday is Garbage Day
Yessir…this is when the rural trash collecting truck backs up the one-lane road and collects the week’s assorted yuck.
Since everything in Universe is connected, we see linkage to markets on this garbage day:
The Japan stock market was down 0.97 percent.
Hong Kong was down only a third of a percent.
In Europe, the Krauts have soured down 1.25% when I checked.
The British Brexiteers are down 0.82% – By the way, I expect the professional sleazy ruling class to overrule the people on Brexit, anyway. It should be a Florida voting machine kind of affair. Dial-a-result.
And France is down 0.90%.
Let’s say we average it out: A decline of 1% in the US market would be 180 points on the Dow. But more important, this could kill the Dow’s run at new all-time highs for now…which means the market would fail to make a new high relative to May 2015, and then we can use the aforementioned brainamp.xls to forecast how bad things could really get.
If Soros is right with the short position, the next stop would be around 12,600 down to 11,932 on the Dow. Sure, there would be a rally from there, but then the bottom we eventually get to would be 11.763 down as far as 10,388.
While this looks (optimistically) like it would be much higher than the lows of 2009, don’t be so sure. Remember, America has been printing money hand-over-fist. Even though it doesn’t seem like it is anywhere near the 6,500 level from that disaster, think again.
The H.6 Money Supply data says M2 is presently $12.651 trillion (plus or minus a small state). In April of 2009, it was $8.318. So money supply has gone up 52% (plus or minus a Tesla) so if we take the 2009 low and adjust for monetary growth, on Dow 6500 back then we come up with 9,885 which is within a few hundred points of what the brainamp.xls figures.
Still, we should not worry yet. Because if the Dow in the coming week or several can power through 18,120 then the upside is very rosy, indeed. And this is what the imcumbent corporate party is looking for.
Even a modest new high would set up a continuation of the rally we’re in now to the 21,000 level of the Dow in a third wave and in the vicinity of 23,000 for the fifth wave up before it all hits the fan.
All of which is terribly interesting to project when the market is sitting less than 200 points from an inflection point which could spell collapse or glorious rally-time profits. Still, one can make good money on collapse, which is the whole point of Soros.
Answer me this: Can you really trust a fellow like Soros who “talks his book?”
Or is this disinfo and Hungarian Goulash?
Middle East Hash
Troubles in the West Bank so Israel has sent in two battalions to restore dominance.
The “religion of peace” meantime has blown up 24 more in Baghdad.
And we see how three hospitals being attacked in the rebel part of Allepo in Syria made the NY Times this morning. What I didn’t see mentioned in the article is how most of the mess in Syria is the making of the Nasty Nest of Neocons who are still selling regime change, despite its near total failure to result in long-term stability. And arguably they funded the wrong side and have been ever since we got what from going after Saddam Hussein, exactly?
Meantime, more “war gush” can be found here. “U.S. backed fighters…” is that what we call radicals who are doing the neocon dirty work, now?
Meantime, Obamanationists are spending $20,000 per refugee..which makes this a huge growth industry. But some today!
So here is my plan: We put razor wire around our 29 acres. I figure we could shove 1,000 people into that space which pencils to $20 million. I will then turn it over to a for-profit prison group and Elaine and I will move to a mansion. Move the balance offshore…Slick Willie deal, huh?
Return of the Highwaymen
Oklahoma Cops Find A New Way To Take People’s Money, Even If They Don’t Have Cash has gotten a lot of traction around the net. We have a special from Oilman2 in tomorrow’s Coping section you won’t want to miss.
That makes two states (The other being Tennessee which targets out of state cars) what we will go around rather than drive through. There is NOTHING civil about mis-named Civil Asset Forfeiture last. It’s just an excuse for government henchmen to steal money from people who can’t defend themselves under “color of law.”
If there’s no court proceeding to prove a crime – and cops are stealing money which is what this kind of thing amounts to – then yes dear, you are living in a police state.
“Vee vill haff order. Say, want to go for a neat-o train ride?”
In the meantime, empty out your wallet because having cash money is now a crime in Police State America….oh, don’t get me started. Wait till tomorrow.
Hell of a tourism plan for Oklahoma, though, I will give them that.