Future Forecasting: Sizing Up Friday

(Tacoma, WA) — The art of “seeing future” is not a difficult thing, although much woo-woo is attached to it:  Since about 90 percent of life is prescheduled, we can actually make very short-term forecasts of how the future will roll out with some degree of confidence

Let me show you what I mean:

Let’s turn on the stove – and you stand next to me as I put my hand on a hot burner.

See what happened? 

Cues led you to believe that I am stupid enough to do that to make a point:  (I am!)

We have expectations about future based on what we are told about it in advance.

The actual arrival (seeing as I’m crazy) is fairly predictable.

I now place my hand on the hot stove and 300 milliseconds hater both my hand and my mouth are moving.  The word “sheeitt!” lingers in the air along with a faint burned filet scent.

Another 500 milliseconds (to full second if you are slow) later and you have  observed and started to react to the expected future thast was just realized. 

Had it not been expected, even longer reaction times would have been noted.  You processing time is cut based on pre-event biasing.

The key points being a) that the future shows up for some, faster than it does for others  (who have some burnt skin in the game) and b) your reaction is tempered by expectations.

As luck would have it, the stove used in this experiment was virtual (VR) and I am still able to type…

Using our Substitution Method of Learning, we will now replace some of the terms of our experiment and see where it leads.

I am going to place my hand on a hot:

    1. Democratic convention
    2. Federal Reserve meeting
    3. Housing Report
    4. Durable Goods report
    5. International Trade report
    6. GDP report
    7. And last but not least, the Friday Farm Price report and…
    8. The H.6 money stocks report.
    9. Let’s also leave a place-holder for “out of left field” events.

    \We have anywhere from today through Friday for all these “hands” to fall on the hot stove.  And, as we previously noted, the future will show up (and already has) for the people who are making many of these decisions.

    Which is to say, someone at Case Shiller already has a very good idea of how tomorrow mornings’ Housing report will come out since they are already working on data collection.

    What we do next is simple:  We score each of these events before the “hand goes to stove” based on what we have read.  We will use 100 to indicate a totally large, positive event.  And zero will b e the most negative.  If the week ahead were going to be unchanged, the expected score would be 50.

    imageInstead, here is how I score the week:

    What you see is a slightly negative outlook.

    This is what drives me to stand aside this week until the market drops 100 points – or more – at which time we will reassess because our other futuring work over on the Peoplenomics.com side offers the prospect of the S&P going above 2,400  before the world begins ending.  And since we have already forecast two windows for that, this week’s forecast is not particularly difficult.

    Two final points:

    One is that in order to see far out into the future, score it, and make an investment, you need to use increasingly long lead-time events.

    Let’s say technical analysis points to the end of April 2017 for the stock market to put in its final high.  What are the events that are known, scheduled, and which would support that kind of timeline? 

    For one, we know that a new president will have 90-120 days to ,make a first impression…so we can them look at the election as being an important multi-factoral – which is to say it’s going to ripple for at least four years.

    This in turn leads to my second point:  The only reason people read “the news” is in order to see what is happening and also to work on these personal scoring projects in order to “vote the future” into existence.

    This then distills into:  Read the news items that will help you forecast the future.  “News” that doesn’t work in this direction isn’t worth your time, sorry Kim.

    Read three versions of a future-oriented story and you can make an intelligent guess.

    Ideally, this week will be down 200 on the Dow, but that’s because of how my scoring for the week looks and the technical picture using our brainamp.xls spreadsheet.

    This doesn’t mean the week WILL work out this way, but an intelligent bet might be on that part of the great roulette wheel of life.

    This Leaves Only Scoring Inputs

    The email-laced let’s screw Bernie around the DNC and Debbie Gonnermann..

    Story over here claims Tim Kaine loves Islamists.

    On the FOMC try this.

    For Housing sample storie3ws like this.

    Durable goods insights?  You can find data like this.

    A news search site (Google News, Bing News and the like) will give you plenty to read – and score.

    Which then =brings us to the Dallas Fed survey which will be posted over here about 10:30 AM today.

    Last, but not least…when you look at the futures, they haven’t come to the same slightly negative outlook I have for the week, but give them time.

    The vast majority of investors are neither willing to work hard, not as thorough – not to mention organized in their thinking – about the one thing that matters when investing:

    The Future.

    We ought to see Friday if they were correct, and if so, I need to update my score weighting…  But it not, then this morning’s discussion will have been useful and we will be down 100-300 Dow points for the week.

    P.S – Quake

    We had a shock from a solar storm hit this morning, so we expect a 6.5 quake in the next 24-hours, too.  It’s only rock n’ roll, huh?

    A shock-like feature was observed in the solar wind parameters on 23 July around 14:50UT. Solar wind speed increase abruptly from around 390 km/s to 460 km/s, with Bt from +5 nT to +13 nT. Bz was near -9 nT around 15:40UT and 16:40UT, and near -11 nT around 20:05UT.

    Whether we get the quake is problematic but it seems to be a risk factor. Your weighting may vary.  48-96 hour window.

    One More Thing

    China is cracking down on internet sites that don’t parrot the gove3rnment line of malarkey.


    Future Forecasting: Sizing Up Friday — 9 Comments

    1. Donald Trump seems to present something of an outsider and a wildcard. But there is little in his history to support the belief that he will be any real improvement over the Bush gang or Hilary and Obama.I see no evidence indicating any likelihood of him approaching the qualities of John F. Kennedy or even Andrew Jackson. The real problems in the US stem from a political system dominated by corporations and big money.

    2. So far…

      M6.1 – 53km NW of Diego de Almagro, Chile
      2016-07-25 17:26:50 UTC
      26.099°S 70.495°W 71.6 km depth

      M6.4 – 128km SE of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea
      2016-07-25 19:38:44 UTC
      2.952°S 147.967°E 7.3 km depth

      • you seem surprised? Ure is not one for predicting mega events that don’t happen but tradable ones that do happen or are likely

        • Nope, not surprised at all. I’ve been following your writings for quite a while.

        • I think the FBI has Guccifer under lock and key who claimed to have hacked Hillary and the DNC but he is from Romania. They interviewed the head of WikiLeaks today who said the e-mails did not come from the Russians – the funny thing is who cares who hacked the DNC the important thing is the contents of the e-mails – but I don’t hear any discussion about that on the MSM

        • Yes, but it begs the question whether this is ‘foreign involvement’ in American elections like when Reagan (who never did get ‘charged’ (surprise, surprise)) for the sweet deal he had with the Iranians regarding the hostage situation?

          Donald Trump’s admiration for Putin is highly suspect.

        • Yeah, we need a neo-con chicken hawk like Killery and her ilk , so we can have a nice WW III
          WTF people ?
          She will continue and accelerate the country destruction festival started under mr nobel peace prize