A Fresh Jobs Report

Latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is just out:

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment
decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey.

Going into this, CNBC figured about 125,000 jobs were wiped out by hurricane impacts.  Our estimate was 126,000….d’oh…

(Continues below)

 

The report goes on:

“The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent) and Blacks (7.0 percent) declined in September. The jobless rates for adult women (3.9 percent), teenagers
(12.9 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Asians (3.7 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little change.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged in September at 1.7 million and accounted for 25.5 percent of the unemployed.

The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 60.4 percent in September and has increased by 0.6 percentage point over the past 12 months. The labor force participation rate,
at 63.1 percent, changed little over the month and has shown little movement over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 5.1 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.

The labor participation rate increased a bit (63.1 from 62.9%).

Almost a million more people were working – up 906,000.

And the CES Birth/Death Model?  Estimated job creation was down 49,000 with a surprising -20,000 jobs in business and professional services.  Is it a foreshadowing of economic pullback thinking in the mahogany foxholes?

Dow should drop today…not a lot – maybe 30-70 later on the Dow because of “weekend risk.”

Coded Message for Peoplenomics Subscribers

Yesterday looks like the first of the 3K sequence discussed Wednesday, which leave the balance for next week…

Washington Testosterone Check

President Trump is said to be ready to decertify the Iran nuclear deal. Which would put him in opposition to the rubber-stamping idiot RINOs.

The New York Times opinion is that decertifying the Iran deal would be a bad idea.

You may have noticed, however, that the NY Times has never held office, so far as we know.

As usual, the liberal press seems to ignore the obvious.

  1. They claim the “deal is working” – but the fact is, we don’t know and will not – until it’s too late.  Where will Israel be, then?
  2. They think it would upset the Korea balance.  On the contrary, it would teach that nuke-puke that we mean business.  We aren’t rollovers like the last trio of clowns in the Oval. Space the rod and spoil the Peninsula, we always say.
  3. It sends the wrong message to Iran”  Oh?  Obama sending those BILLIONS to Iran was the wrong message. Where was the outrage there?  A more accurate read of history revealed in “$1.7-billion payment to Iran was all in cash due to effectiveness of sanctions, White House says” is that Obama would pay a “protection racket..”

We are not surprised at stupid editorial views, however, since the guy doing the decertifying is that person every MSM outlet seems to love to bash.

We’d just limit him to six tweets a day and call it good.

Meantime, though, left-wing media are now trying to drive a wedgie between Trump and his cabinet which is how we got to the headline After report of tension with Tillerson, Trump tweets that NBC News ‘should issue an apology to AMERICA!’

Remember, when you read “Pence had to intervene” or some-such pap, what’s much more likely going on is the RINOs are still trying to bump Trump and hence Pence…who would be their boy in the Oval. Trump, et al are all over it…and the RINOs have lost.  But clowns like Bob Corker – being touted by the Online Retailing Giant’s newspaper – are still working to keep “hence, Pence” alive as a concept. The Real Estate President versus the online giants is still a working framework when sizing up the future of Trump and Pence.

Wet dream, on Pence’s part?  Sure.  And no, I don’t think Pence will get the nod in  2020 – I’d have a tough time voting for him as would most small central government, balanced budget – and here’s one:  Honest Money supporters.  But there’s this thick haze of RINO BS lingo fogging the field of thinking in Washington, make no mistake about it.

Fed Data Matters

To the end of July, M1 was being pumped at an annualized 6.7% increase rate.  But if you look at the H.6 money stocks report this week, you’ll find the same number through September 25 is up 8.4%.  So the market is about peaking, as we see it.

This as Janet et all pull a low-level pump and dump to clear their balance sheet for the pension debacle which will be the next disaster which will cost us all dearly and may result in loads of new financial restrictions.  More on that over on the PN side of things.

Playing in the Wind

Our consigliere was out the door at 5:05 AM on his adventure trip to Cancun for a week.  He will be arriving an hour or four ahead of Hurricane Nate:

We’ve encouraged him to head down south of Cancun and do one of the guided cave dives.  They aren’t really dives so much as you just put on a life preserver (of BC if you’re a diver) and float and flip almost half a mile underground through the ironshore.   Light’s about every 100-200 feet from holes the previous high culture in the area dug to light things up.

With the hurricane through today, we’d expect this to be a Thursday or Friday adventure for ’em so the water clears…

Monetizing Disaster Logbook

Ah…Everything IS a Business Model, even shattered Puerto Rico, appears to us:

 

‘These Are Just Not Ordinary Times:’ Lin-Manuel Miranda on the Making of His New Song for Puerto Rico.

And since we’re on topic:  While we don’t care about Harvey what’s-it’s pechewzelwhackering adventures, we love to see how folks keep name familiarity going.  For example, we’re studying “That Jay-Z Quote in Harvey Weinstein’s Statement? It’s Not Real” and wondering cui bono?

So, Bob, How’s Fishing?

What do you get with 16 (mostly Clinton contributing) attorneys?  Here’s a hint: Mueller’s Team Met With the Former Spy Who Wrote the Trump-Russia Dossier, Report Says.

We are extremely interested not so much in the Mueller fandango but in why there are leaks and why no charges?

 

Totally Useless But It’s Friday Dept.

Evidence continues to mount that mainstream media have flipped the eff out:  Stories that prove the point today include:

6 worst ‘Jeopardy!’ players ever.

Woman takes selfies with catcallers, turns them into viral Instagram account.

 

‘I Dream of Jeannie’ star Barbara Eden describes working with Larry Hagman, Elvis and Lucille Ball.

Larry David freaks out when his famous cousin is revealed.

7 days quiz: Which renowned thinker is connected to Victoria Beckham?  (We’re kinda wondering, uh, how they are connected…)

I’d roll with more, but you get idea.  Or, you don’t get the idea, and thus we conclude you have an IQ in the 70’s and have no business on a thinking, grown-up’s website like ‘this-un.’

If you’re above room temp brains, come on back Monday morning when we will again abuse the language, challenge the mind, and wonder about age-old ad slogans.  Because around here, quality is job 2.  Making money is job 1.

Oooh, what a feeling, it’s Friday.


Comments

A Fresh Jobs Report — 16 Comments

  1. If Trump breaks the Iran agreement, I would like to point out to all you “Norte Americanos” that you have no mentally healthy justification for expecting the federal government to honor any agreements it has with you, such as rule of law, legal taxation, medical care, pensions….

    The violation of this agreement will give the USA an unblemished Record for violating every international agreement it has ever signed. Seen much international support for the USA for recovery from these recent disasters? Fifty years ago there would have been at least half a dozen countries offering support.

    No need to wonder why North Korea is not interest in dialogue with the USA.

    • Mr. Obama was not an absolute Regent or Dictator (although I’m sure some would disagree), and had neither the legal nor moral right to make that agreement. That he did so is a testament to the lack of testicular fortitude of the members of Congress. Leaving the Iran deal in place would actually be a criminal act.

      When we can handle a disaster recovery far better than anyone else, and it’d cost a foreign country dearly, financially, to help out (because of our stupid and draconian T&T policies), no one assisting is not a surprise. Fifty years ago, we didn’t have 40,000 regulations which dealt with foreign based shipping. We didn’t even have 1000…

  2. “Housing Heads Higher” shouldn’t the headline be: Money is worth less!!!

    p.s. Housing doesn’t Head Higher!!!!

  3. George, The Iran nuke deal is working to stop Iran’s nukes.

    So what if Obama got it? Get over it. And stop being angry. As if all it takes is to call someone a ‘nuke-puke’ and everything is solved. You guys get these goofy slogans, that must click somehow in our Reptilian brains, and everything is done.

    If Trump gets a N. Korea nuke deal that works, like Obama’s, I’ll congratulate your team.

    This has all the markings of the Conservatives’ debacle in Iraq. You remember when you guys broke the Middle East, and spawned their mass migration, right? You guys had your goofy slogans then too. Remember Freedom Fries, right? And “Support the Troops?” Mike.

    • I don’t pay ransom to terrorists. And my “payback ratio” for those slow to learn works out to about 20:1

    • Obama has already gotten an Iran deal that works like North Korea’s. The Iran deal is working to ensure Iran will have nukes.

      It was damn near word-for-word the same deal the Clinton Administration ramrodded through for North Korea ‘cept Mr. Obama made the deal through the Executive instead of the Legislative, which is both illegal and nonbinding, THEN illegally threw in a bunch of our cash for Iran AND released their withheld funds.

      Mr. Trump is exactly correct when he said it had fallen on him to fix previous Administrations’ mistakes. He was not just referring to the Obama Administration, although that’s what the MSM made it sound like. Our foreign policy has been crap since the middle of the Kennedy Administration, and totally FUBARd since half-way through the Reagan Administration. This is why I point out, without pointing fingers, that it’s never a good thing for the VP to have a higher security clearance than the Prez…

  4. RE: ” Mueller’s Team Met With the Former Spy Who Wrote the Trump-Russia Dossier, Report Says” = oxymoron. There’s not such thing as a ‘former’ spy (see: Putin/KGB and Bush/CIA)

  5. Continued bickering among the usual suspects of government contracting/construction/etc. has caused the pushback of deployment date for people coming in to do FEMA disaster relief. The people they are looking for are engineers, mostly licenced, to inspect and declare the level of damage to major construction and infrastructure (like office/retail/apartment buildings and industrial plants and especially water and waste water treatment plants.
    I have had to pull out of my offer to do so as I will start Monday with a new job with a major EPC, contracted to a major chemical company to do projects in their plants. Took about 15 months. In reviewing with many friends and contacts, the 15 months for senior (age and/or experience) people is about how long it is taking.
    A meeting of a professional society and talking to the vendors of instruments and controls their says the CAPEX for most manufacturers was zeroed out for the year last year, because they believed brand X would win. When she did not, they had all stopped expansion, but plan to go like gangbusters next year with pent up expansion and construction in the chem and energy areas. Everyone is seeking new equipment with a delivery date in January or later when the money comes available. I will be working on projects in plants in AL and GA and new construction of plants in AR.
    So, we will probably watch from the sidelines next week too, as with meetings and living out of a motel next week, can’t watch the market as close as needs be.
    One other data point, the pay being offered both the FEMA and my latest was a higher rate than I was expecting, as they are all looking for the experienced people now, and many have just gone home. In my professional society, where I am a regional officer, I am about the only one in my area of expertise (Chemical) not retired, except for about a 20 year experience gap to the next folks.
    Big Al back at work in Birmingham (Yea!)

  6. Jobs everywhere, they just won’t support an individual let alone a family. We have become the Russia of the late 50’s early 60’s, goal seeked numbers that show how great we are to hide the underlying rot. Just like the annual wheat harvest reports of the great Russia with pictures of the combines raking it in. Pure nonsense.

    • You are correct that for the past year I have seen only entry level jobs offered in my expertise (Chemical Engineering) but with the new fiscal year, the offers appeared, and I got a new job at my old rate well into the 6-fig range.
      Vendors tell me the manufacturers all pulled in spending when they thought the Hildebeast would be in charge of regulations. They are all planning to spend next year. I am doing plant improvements in GA and AL and two new plants in W. Memphis AR this next year.

      • In my field, entry level AND have to be bi-lingual! Knocked me right out of my field!

  7. The highlight of the report:

    Almost a million more people were working – up 906,000.

    Why they only report on “new jobs” and not this stunning increase is beyond me. What’s your take here – that people were all called back into work? That jobs were not created but rather re-activated? To me, this is a really good jobs report – if you go by how many more people are statistically captured in the Employed line.

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