Fed in a Policy Box

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Remember last Friday?

That’s when the consumer price report came out. You can review it here, or accept when I tell you the government is trying to sell the idea that the general level of prices is up 1.1% in the past year.

Hold this number in mind now and follow along.

Let’s flip over to the H.6 Money Stocks report from the Federal Reserve. In August of 2015 M1, seasonally adjusted, stood at $3,041.2 billion, or to be lazy $3.041 trillion.

As of last Thursday’s report, M1, seasonally adjusted, stood at $3,314.1 billion or $3.314 trillion dollars.

Dividing the year-ago number into the current we see the money supply in the last year as increased 8.977%.

Since it’s early, we can round this off to Money Supply at M1 is up 9%.

Now pull out that prices increase – the 1.1%.

We can guesstimate that the Fed is pondering 7.9% deflation as they gavel in for two days of meetings which will wrap up with a decision tomorrow (not to raise rates because of the election being near) and then a press conference in which Janet Yellen will attempt to keep the illusion intact at least until the election is done.

(Since that’s more a matter of bidding and spending that actual substance, living as we do in an imaginary media-charged Alt-Brainwashed world. I won’t bore you with how Hillary will likely win despite the polls. Though I hope I’m wrong…)

The Fed can’t keep doing this (making up mountains of money to keep the economy going) forever. But they only have to do it “One ‘mo time…” and then they are good for another eight years.

The most serious oddity to watch (other than the Ponzi-like economy) is the stock market. On the Monday open it drove up more than 100 points as it to say to the Fed “You go, girl!”

By the end of the session, both the Dow and the S&P had been thrown for tiny losses.

The important thing, however, was that insiders were given a chance to short from higher levels.

And that’s why as much as it may SEEM as though the Fed has been putting it’s thumb on the economic scales in support of Obama II/Clinton II, they may have other plans.

Still, the 10-year bond when I looked was still trading at 1.7% so the odds of anything big happening tomorrow are still unchanged.

Nevertheless, a good tongue-lashing in the press conference to follow might dowse some market hysteria, thereby skating through one last meeting cycle before the “election” in November.

After that? You and I don’t matter, again. And in the coming four years, I expect we will start the Second Depression, have our bail-in, and the transition to Crony Socialism will move forward on schedule.

That’s where regular people will have to total depend on government, and government will give and take as it pleases its cronies, the one percenters.

Since we know who their candidate is, no Fed move, a rally in the Spring and then collapse looks like the course from here.

Housing Starts To Slide

Remember a few days ago I was telling you a major Recession in 2017 is coming into view if you know where to look? Well, just out from Census:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.4 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised July rate of 1,144,000 and is 2.3 percent (±1.5%) below the August 2015 estimate of 1,166,000.

Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 737,000; this is 3.7 percent (±3.0%) above the revised July figure of 711,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 370,000 in August.

HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,142,000. This is 5.8 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised July estimate of 1,212,000, but is 0.9 percent (±12.5%)* above the August 2015 rate of 1,132,000.

Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 722,000; this is 6.0 percent (±8.2%)* below the revised July figure of 768,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 403,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,043,000. This is 3.4 percent (±10.9%)* below the revised July estimate of 1,080,000, but is 8.3 percent (±11.8%)* above the August 2015 rate of 963,000.

Dow Futures are up 60-something, but remember this is Paint-the-Tape Day ahead of the Fed.

Making Up Demons

In the meantime, CNN is again earning its nickname Clinton News Network as other media report “CNN Puts Words In Trump’s Mouth: Runs Headlines Saying He Wants “Racial” Profiling.”

Yet somehow Brian Stelter of CNN can’t understand why Trump doesn’t want to talk to CNN…gee, can you imagine that?

Please tell me you’re not surprised.

Another “Gee, no kidding?” headline is the revelation that “New York Bomber Ahmad Khan Rahami Was a Trump Hater.” Again, no surprise.

Bush to Vote Hillary?

Again, going to the one percenters idea, we see the headline “George H.W. Bush to vote for Hillary” and read it as a sour-grapes piece.

Let me think:  Why would the Bush aristocracy vote for a candidate that screwed up Jeb’s efforts to continue the regal name ad infinitum? Seriously? Like this is a surprise? 

It’s not an election, it’s a bid and the aristocracy has all the money…

Climate Debate

More than 100,000 people have died from fossil fuel haze in Indonesia. Except for one thing: Indonesia says it’s not true.

This reminds me: If you want unlimited funding and a life-time job, grab something in climate studies – it’s the new growth industry.  No product except fear and unlimited marketing potential. Look what it did for Al Gore!

Will Tulsa Burn, Next?

We can’t help but notice that with the heat up on Hillary, Trump coming up in polls, and time to play head games on the Silent Majority of America running short, we have an oddly timed story coming out of Tulsa.

Seems a black man was killed by a female cop on Friday – but only now are the media pumping the story.

Just curious:  How long for out of town agitators to find Tulsa?

Not to be conspiratorial about it, but I figure in a week, or two, Tulsa could be a real hot spot in the headlines, based on how such incidents have gone in the past.

Quick response by the police department and a Civil Rights investigation by the Feds is a good start. But the timing of events, which if it “lights off” would dwarf important political headlines, seem almost predictable.

I won’t predict it, but I will track…for now.

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George Ure
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24 thoughts on “Fed in a Policy Box”

  2. “The Fed can’t keep doing this (making up mountains of money to keep the economy going) forever.”

    How come nobody else speaks up? Why is there NO intellectual revolution against this particular stupidity of the world’s ‘inteligencia?’

    • I know a young man who gets sucked into dysfunctional relationships.
      When I asked him why, he say “I can’t stop because it feels so good.”
      Like a meth-head, the intelligencia you refer to is part of the problem.
      You can’t trust them to tell the truth for dysfunction is all they have ever known.
      Consider that they attempt to live in a world where they claim formulas can predict all – which is why quants are the current vogue in finance.
      Yes, a few formulas will work. but they most fail at the extremes and thus are ill-suited for deriving perceptions about the Big Picture.
      Like the man trying to feel a cat inside a box that he can’t see into, is is it a cat? Or, is it a dog?
      When it turns out to be a stuffed toy, everyone is appalled. Except the content of the box is real.
      Everything else was wrong-head conjecture.
      The intelligencia is a consensus and what makes for radical change is when consensus discovers its way if flawed and panic ensues.

      • the thing about unlimited money is it could work if a nation was alone and didn’t depend on other nations because they make money too out of the blue, it’s grown on trees yep so the discrepancy is how can each Nation make their own money without going overboard, now I got you thinking , it’s possible but unlikely tomorrow but it will be likely in the future because we do not live in the past

      • And that is what the New World Order is hoping to achieve where All the Monies are equal, and that would immediately put it on the lower end of the totem pole

  6. Geez George, I don’t get you. Trump DOES want racial profiling. And Trump’s budget IS going to add another $11 trillion on national debt. And the Trump family IS keeping its Russian holdings while he in office. And Trump lying about his height so not to be determined obese — pathetic. Just own it. Still love you, George. But at least own it. Mike.

    • Suppose for a minute that 70-80 percent of crime in an area was committed by people wearing orange hoodies.
      Would it then be “profiling” to pay particular attention to people weather orange hoodies?
      Think this through carefully, Grasshopper. There is a boundary layer between this and other police policy issues. Shall we all drink the Kool-Aid and not look at the orange hoodies until after a a crime has been committed, or should suspicious=acting orange hoodie wearers in an odd place or acting inappropriately be given a second glance?
      Political correctness or effective police work?
      Oh…that’s right. Everyone gets do overs…you just get to write the checks.

      • So what if the person does not wear an orange hood while committing the crime – are you still going to be looking for someone wearing ‘an orange hood’?

        And in regard to ‘standards’ – Someone ‘fudges’ their weight and say, medication is based on that person’s weight – perhaps the drug will be ineffective – that’s how drug resistant bacteria develops . . .

        Say engineers or contractors ‘fudge’ on standards – many horrific accidents have happened including airplane crashes – maybe the wrong weight is entered into calculations for number of engines needed for braking . . . that’s how that train crash down in California (El Cahon?) happened.

        Standard are very important.

        • You just ignored 70- percent of the crime problem by talking around it and not addressing it!
          Therefore I must ask if you’re a registered democrat?

      • There used to be ‘moderate Republicans’ in Oregon; I voted for both Hatfield and Packwood in the forty-four years I’ve been proudly voting – I was so pleased to turn twenty-one back then as it meant I was a full-fledged citizen. But as of today the ‘liberal’ branch of that party has all but died out. I now belong to the Democratic party!

        • Unlike you, I was a Scoop Jackson/conservative democrat when I turned 21.
          I stayed that way for a long while.
          But the demos went far left with Clinton and when congress can’t impeach and when congress allows its own laws to be ignored by the issues of imperial decrees, then I got conservative.
          Conservative isn’t a bad word. It means to preserve. Little things like laws, values, and rights we hold dear.

      • I believe that ‘normality’ went out the window even before either one of us were born. People (and governments) got ‘tired’ of conflict – even if done for reasonable causes – WWII was too damaging, too destructive. Armies were targeting civilians.

        Stalin was allowed to continue his control of Russia; Mao Tse Tung – China (though his opponent whose name I can’t spell was hardly any better – I suspect that if he had been in control, there would have been many dead). And there was the matter in the U.S. about the War Powers Act – Sure it’s a ‘bother’ to get approval of congress for major military action, but it was ignored . . . Almost every damn military action since then has been a ‘tar baby’ . . .

        Too much to say – but then my professors would say my papers were too long winded . . .

  7. I live in Tulsa. The local group that agitates held a court house steps press gathering yesterday. I noticed that the Nation of Islam already had officials present. We will do our best to hold the police accountable and keep things orderly here. The victim’s family has also called for orderly behavior and non violent protests.

    • I will note that Milwaukee’s reaction to a police shooting didn’t need “outside” agitators. And keep this in mind: With the global network of the Internet almost EVERYONE is an outsider to the local community and these outsiders have a way to get a well crafted message to a local community.

    • Spoken like a true liberal; that taco truck and the illegals that run it, MILK the system taking things that are NOT theirs! They did not EARN it, they did NOT PAY for it, and they do NOT deserve it! You want to give the house AND store away AND the factory, too! You want a takeover, and it is NOT going to happen!

      You also want a CROOK, LIAR, CON ARTIST, SCAMMER, and UNDESERVING PSYCHOPATH as President, that is NOT going to happen either!

      You are getting your news from the WRONG sources and then you have the knickers to come on here and spout your BS; Get your head out of the MSM azz!

  10. George your quote “the aristocracy has all the money…” Aristocracy she can never be, as the son of an English gentleman living down under I can tell you the daughter of a shop keeper can never be aristocracy.

    • We’ve monetized EVERYTHING in America.
      This includes buying position in the aristocracy – or our interp.
      Aristocracy here can be money, position, or power. The three are interchangeable and we have a unique socioeconomic bidding systems based on corruption.

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